Patriots Daily

By Greg Doyle, Patriots Daily Staff

When you get spoiled watching a dynasty, even a year-long absence can seem like a long time to go not watching your favorite team in the playoffs. And after sitting out last year’s post-season action, that how it feels with the Patriots. A long time. But the playoffs return and everything is ratcheted up a notch Sunday. Most close Patriots observers feel this team is too flawed to make a serious run, though I’d say the majority feel they’ll at least win Sunday.

We’ll see. The Patriots could certainly win Sunday but if they play inconsistently, as they have most of the year, they won’t. If they play like they did against Jacksonville two weeks ago, they’ll win with ease and suddenly you’ll start to hear “watch out for the Patriots” talk. That is how things can change from week to week.

History would suggest the Patriots will win with ease Sunday. Even in the Belichick years they haven’t secured first round byes, and ultimately been unsuccessful winning it all, i.e. 2005 and 2006, they still had fairly dominating first round game at home and won both by three+ touchdowns. It says here they’ll do it again, play a very good game and get by Baltimore fairly handily. Then it’ll come down to week two of the playoffs when they’ll need a great performance. They pull off two weeks of performances like that in a row and all bets are off. As Kevin Garnett would say “ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!! They’ll need to start with the first one first, Sunday in Foxboro. Then we’ll see.

QB Joe Flacco:

When we last saw Flacco in week 4, it was said here he was in the process of becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. But something happened on the way to being a game changer, at least this year, i.e., it just didn’t happen. Maybe it was unfair of anyone to expect that. But it seems the conventional wisdom on Flacco has gone from rookie bound to make critical mistakes to….hmmm, he managed the game effectively all the way to the playoffs to……wow, this guy is gonna be a star to……wow, he is overrated. As usual, the truth is probably in the middle. He is, after all, a second year guy whose major experience in college came in at a lower level than Division I. And he did have a decent year, helping the Ravens for an AFC 4th best 391 points. His QB rating was 88.9, not bad and up 8 points over his rookie year. So he is headed in the right direction. Just don’t expect him yet to be perfect. And he will be heading into this road playoff game this Sunday with a 50.8 QB rating in the playoffs from last year. Whether he is still shaky in the playoffs should be interesting.

RB Ray Rice:

Rice is now the single biggest threat in the Ravens offense. The 2nd year back ripped off 1,339 yards this year on the ground for a 5.3 average. But he is a dual threat, catching 78 balls for another 702 yards in the passing game. Against the Patriots earlier this year Rice had one of four 100 yard games he had on the season, gaining 103 in a game that included a 50 yard run. Patriot defensive end Ty Warren, in one of the more ridiculous comments I have heard a Patriots player make in recent years, downplayed Rice’s performance and that run specifically because it came out a spread formation against sub packages. As if that matters. The score was 24-14 when Rice made the run. It was still the third quarter. They scored on the drive the run came on to make the game 24-21. What difference does it make if it came out of the spread? The Patriots didn’t stop him. It seemed as ridiculous to me as the Jets players whining about the wildcat after they lost to the Dolphins earlier this year. In any event, if the Patriots don’t do a better job against Rice this time they just may lose the game.

WR Derek Mason:

At one time, when Mason signed with Baltimore from Tennessee, it was the Patriots who almost acquired his services. Reportedly it was a very close decision by Mason back in 2005 to pick Baltimore over New England. Since that time, Mason has played in all 80 regular season games, despite often feigning near crippling injuries on the field, and racked up 4 1,000 yard seasons in 5 years including this season. Mason isn’t the fastest receiver in the world, but he is smart, runs good routes, has great hands and is physical. He burned the Patriots for a touchdown in their last match up.

LB Ray Lewis:

Ray will surely be a prime force in the television build up to the game. The future Hall of Famer I am sure will somehow, reluctantly of course, find himself in front of a camera just before kickoff firing up his Ravens teammates. It is just amazing how the cameras manage to find Ray, isn’t it? Now 34 years old, Lewis isn’t nearly the player he once was. But he’s still good. 133 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles shows he gets himself in on a lot of plays still. I have always thought the Patriots have handled him fairly well over the years, but he still definitely shows up here and there in plays. Hopefully for the Patriots, it won’t be game-changing type plays.

CB Domonique Foxworth and CB Chris Carr:

The Ravens are a bit weak at corner and these two guys, mediocre players both, are their two starters. A free agent with the Ravens this year, Foxworth started his first full season this year. He had a decent year, but not spectacular. He picked off 4 passes and is somewhere around middle of the pack as a corner. He did win Defensive Player of the Week honors in Week 15 when he picked off two Jay Cutler passes in a game against Chicago. He had a poor game earlier this year versus New England, however. Carr was always known more as a returner and he is certainly dangerous with the ball once he gets it in his hands. Signed to be a nickel back, Carr has now been pressed into starting duty. The results have been so-so at best. This is a crew the Patriots can definitely exploit, even without Wes Welker. The backups are fairly weak as well. The saving grace for the Ravens is their solid safety play, led by All-Pro Ed Reed. But if the Patriots can design ways to get the corners isolated, they’ll take advantage. Tom Brady identifying one on one coverage effectively, which he usually does, will go along way to not allow the Ravens to hide their weak corners.

Other Links:

By Bruce Allen, Patriots Daily Staff

Earlier in the season, we had a nice chat with Right Off Russell, a Baltimore area sports blog. This week, we’re renewing acquaintances with the guys, and talking about this week’s playoff matchup between the Patriots and Ravens.

How are the Ravens a different team from what we saw early in the season? Is the defense back to being the unit we’ve come to know over most of this decade?

Defensively, the Ravens are not as good as they have been in previous seasons. They still struggle to pressure QB’s and the secondary is holding on by a thread after losing a lot of depth to injury. What I think the Ravens do have now is a greater sense of who they are and how they need to gameplan on defense. It took some time for this team to realize how it needed to play on defense after some key personnel and coaching changes. Sure the defense is still vulnerable, but they have a better sense of how they need to play and are better at limiting big plays than they were in the first half of the season. The other main difference I see in the Ravens is a greater focus on the running game. Joe Flacco got off to a hot start and the Ravens had the look of a pass first team. Well some injuries to Flacco and defenses adjusting to what he likes to do have limited some of his effectiveness, so the Ravens have made a necessary shift to running the ball more and I think it is why they are in the playoffs.

Ray Rice is an amazing back, and from afar, it looks like Willis McGahee had some good games as well. There’s also Le’Ron McClain in the mix. Rice gets most of the carries, but what is the Ravens strategy with their backs? McGahee isn’t just a goal line back, as we saw last week. How do they deploy them?

Your guess is as good as mine. There are roles that have been pretty consistent over the course of the season, but Cam Cameron seems content to mix up how he uses the backs on a game to game basis. Rice is a lot more effective than the other two in the passing game. McGahee has been very good on the goal line and McClain in short yardage and closing out teams with a pounding running game. I think Cameron has been flexible to use the back who gives him the best chance for success against a particular defense. He is also willing to ride the hot hand, evident last Sunday in Oakland with the use of McGahee. The three backs have not been used in consistent ways all season, but they have been very effective and at times dynamic.

Has Joe Flacco continued to progress in his development? Early in the season, there was a lot of talk about how much better he was, and how much more wide open the Baltimore offense was. How has it been since then?

I think Flacco has had a very good year for a 2nd year QB. When you consider his progress, in some ways Flacco has been the victim of his own early success. Flacco started out of the gates very quickly and you could see the difference in his game from last year. Then, as I mentioned above, some injuries caused some struggles, and defenses focused more and more at taking away the things the Ravens were trying to do in the passing game. This led to some struggles that are normal for any QB, let alone a 2nd year one. Because of the injuries and struggles the Ravens have looked to run the ball more in the 2nd half of the season. Flacco still can make all the throws, but the offense has shifted to rely more on it’s bread and butter.

If you had to design a plan to beat the Ravens, where would you attack?

To move the ball on the Ravens defense you have to attack the Ravens secondary. The corners are small and depleted and struggle against big, physical receivers. The Ravens still have a run stuffing defensive front, but they have also struggled to bring consistent pressure on opposing QB’s. Defenses that have been effective at stopping the Ravens offense have been able to pressure Flacco and take him out of his comfort zone by trying to take Derrick Mason out of the game. The Ravens do not have a lot of playmakers in the receiving corp, if Mason is neutralized it can be hard for the Ravens to move the ball through the air.

As a fan, is it frustrating at times that the Ravens seem to get hit with so many costly penalties right at the worst possible times? Who is to blame for this happening so much? The players? The coaches? Do the Ravens have a target on their backs from the officials? What’s the deal here?

Honestly, it has been a bit of all those factors. The Ravens have been out of position, especially in the secondary and that will lead to penalties. Perhaps those numerous penalties have led the officials to scrutinize the Ravens. There have definitely been plenty of calls that I thought were questionable to down right bad. Heck there were a few of those bad calls the first time the Ravens travelled to Foxboro, but that is part of the game and as frustrating as it is the refs are not going to change the calls after they have had a chance to watch them on tape. It has happened a lot this year, but I am certain that the Ravens are not thinking about that heading into Sunday’s matchup. The play-offs are a new season.

You can see our answers to their questions here: Scouting the Patriots.

-30-

It’s funny how things in the NFL can change in just a few short weeks. The Vikings have all the Farve haters chuckling. The Saints are in disarray, having lost to the Buccaneers and Cowboys. The Colts look ripe for the plucking, and have the Patriots fans salivating at the possibility of revenging that fourth and two debacle. While New England no longer seems like the one dimensional team that, ‘just isn’t that good’- a quote that can be lifted from any Boston sportscaster. Now, the Pats have a decent running game, a more sophisticated passing attack, a curious pass rush, and a formidable offensive line. All of the pieces need to come into place in order for the Patriots to have a successful playoff run. Look for these matchups against Houston as a tune-up for the playoffs:

1. Andre Johnson vs. Patriots Secondary

The young Patriots secondary, recently infused with Shawn Springs’ and James Sanders’ experience, need to be able to step it up come playoff time. This week will be a great warm-up against Andre Johnson. He is clearly one of if not the best receivers in the league and is a handful for any secondary. The playoff run will be mired with elite receivers and the secondary need to figure out how to contain them.

2. Laurence Maroney vs. The Fumble

In order for the Patriots to have a successful playoff run, they need to have a reliable running game. Enter Laurence Maroney who is having a great season and is the team’s best running threat. However, his propensity to fumble on the goal-line has gotten him benched. What better way of regaining the team’s confidence, then to have a fumbleless performance in a meaningless game? No risk, all reward. Don’t mess up Maroney.

3. Patriots O-line vs. Texans pass rush

Sebastian Vollmer and Matt light have anchored the ends very nicely the last couple of weeks. They need to continue their good work and not let Tom Brady get hurt in a meaningless week 17 game.

4. Patriots tight ends vs. Texans Safties

Last week against the Jaguars, the Patriots finally utilized Watson and Baker in the passing game. It seems that the emergence of Vollmer has strengthened the offensive line and freed up the tight ends to venture out downfield. This new offensive wrinkle will keep defenses honest and pay dividends for the rest of the offense.

5. Ron Brace and Wright vs. Texans O-line

Second round pick Ron Brace is having a dismal rookie year and needs to show that he can provide depth on the defensive line. Brace, along with Wright and Myron Pryor need to stop the second worst running team in the league and show that they can be counted on to spell Wilfork and Warren in the playoffs.

It worked for the Giants as we all know what happened in 2007. So if it was me filling Bill Belichick’s decision making shoes, you’d see Tom Brady the entire game. And Randy Moss. And Wes Welker. And anyone else that was healthy and important. And you’d see a game plan designed to win. At 11-5, heading into a home playoff game with a win and clicking you’d have to view the Patriots as a dangerous team.

Will it play out that way? Will the Patriots play to win? We’ll find out Sunday at 1PM.

QB Matt Schaub (#8):

Schaub is a very big, strong-armed quarterback with great tools and an ability to move around the pocket. He is still prone to bouts of inaccuracy, but is a coming into his own as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He has had some problem with injuries in the past. Back in 2005, threw for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 112.1 QB rating filling in for an injured Michael Vick against the Patriots, though the Patriots won 31-28. Largely on the strength of that performance, Houston traded for Schaub with results finally starting to payoff big this year. With the Patriots occasional struggles in the secondary, it’ll be interesting to see how they do with the productive Schaub.

RB Arian Foster (#37):

Foster is an undrafted rookie out of Tennessee who is starting due to injuries in the Texans’ backfield. He had his best game last week with 97 yards in a Houston win. It was somewhat of a surprise he wasn’t drafted after putting up over 3,000 yards in college and having a decent size/speed combination.

WR Andre Johnson (#80):

Possibly the best wide receiver in football and one of the most dangerous offensive weapons around. Johnson has it all, size, speed, great hands and strength. He can get deep behind a defensive back, but also take a short pass the distance many times with the awesome skills he has. For the second year in a row, Johnson is up over 1,500 yards receiving and had 9 touchdowns on the year. Stopping Johnson will be a key to how the Patriots’ defense performs Sunday.

DE Mario Williams (#90):

Williams was a controversial pick by the Texans at  #1 overall a few years back ahead of Reggie Bush. It has proven to be a wise decision. Williams is one of the more dominant defensive linemen in the league and a real chore to block one on one. He’s effective versus the run, but a monster to handle as a pass rusher. Still just 24 years old, Williams has had a slightly less effective season than the previous two, but still has 8 sacks on the year. You can be sure he’d like to get to double figures for the third year in a row. The Patriots will have their hands full handling him.

LB DeMeco Ryans (#59):

A tackling machine, the 6’1″ 250 lb. Ryans is now a regular amongst NFL defensive tackles leaders annually. Active and quick, he is a good football player who has been a leader for the Texans since his rookie year. Ryans was the predecessor to the Patriots’ Jerrod Mayo as NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Though the Texans rank somewhere around the middle of the pack in both passing and rushing defense, its not the fault of Ryans who usually is as active a playmaker as you’ll see from a middle linebacker.

Houston Texans Official Site

Houston Chronicle Texans Fan Blog

texanstalk.com fan message board

By Bruce Allen, Patriots Daily Staff

We’ve reached the regular season finale. Unbelievable.  This week we had a great chat with Mike Kerns of the Don’t Mess With Texans blog. It’s a longshot, but it’s possible we might get to do this all over again next week, if things fall right.

How angry were you and fellow Texans fans at the Colts on Sunday for laying down and letting a team in direct competition with you (Jets) for the final playoff spot gain the upper hand in the race for that spot?

Personally, I was more pissed at The Colts for not going for a perfect season. Lots of fans out here are pissed about it, but I’m not. Houston should have taken care of their own business and did better than 1-5 within the division. They have no one to be pissed at but themselves. I am a bit pissed off that The Jets look like they may get to cakewalk into the playoffs by playing two teams that seem to be laying down to end the season. I hate the way that’s playing out and I think it is a black eye for the NFL.

As a Texans fan, what is your opinion of Gary Kubiak as a head coach? What are his strengths and weaknesses? Does he return next season?

Again, personally, I am ready for Gary Kubiak to go. His strengths are that he has taken a team that was in shambles and turned them into a team that can compete with anybody and possibly win. His biggest weakness is that he plays not to lose instead of playing to win. How many times this year has Houston had a significant lead on someone only to take their foot off the gas and let them back in the game? It is quite frustrating as a fan. Going .500 for (possibly) three consecutive seasons to me is unacceptable. I would like a change at Head Coach. But, only for someone that is established (I’d personally like Cowher, but that is highly unlikely). I do not want to start over with another rookie coach.

When I look up and down the Texans roster, I see talent on both sides of the ball. What has kept the team from reaching the next level?

Killer Instinct. They have lost five games this year by seven points or less. They have an inability to finish. In my opinion, this falls on the Coach. Gary Kubiak is highly guilty of going conservative and not insulting anyone by running up the score. It has cost him dearly in contests against The Colts and Jaguars this year. All 4 of those games were winnable.

I’m not sure how old you were…did you ever root for the Oilers? What is it like when the Titans come to town? Is there any crossover there in Houston?

I’m 31 and didn’t move to Houston until 1994. The Oilers were well on their way out when i arrived, so I missed the whole “Luv ya Blue” era. Personally, I don’t like anyone in my division. But there is a special personal hate for The Titans for me due to the annoying Vince young fans in Houston. Many of them just can’t let go that Houston didn’t draft him (Thank god!) in 2006 and cheer for him over the Texans. Then there are the other ones, who were here for The Oilers, who hate anything that (Titans owner) Bud Adams touches. There are plenty of Titans followers in Houston that just followed the Oilers as they transformed into The Titans. It is quite the hostile environment in Reliant Stadium when Tennessee comes to town. But mostly between the two fan bases.

Has any defense been effective against Andre Johnson? If you were trying to slow him down, how would you defend him?

The phrase “You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him” is well overused in sports. But for certain players, this still rigs true. Andre Johnson is one of these guys. The only guy this year that has had any luck against him is Darrelle Revis. But there were lots of issues in that game. Honestly, he would probably have 2,000 yards receiving right now if Owen Daniels hadn’t gotten hurt. Johnson is double and triple teamed on every play since OD is no longer there to keep the safeties honest. The best way to stop Andre Johnson is to get consistent pressure on Matt Schaub. When Schaub is protected, he is as good as any QB in the league and can slice a defense apart and make it look easy. But under consistent pressure, he is as average as average gets. See the aforementioned Jets game.

P.S. – Can you do us a favor and keep Bernard Pollard away from Brady?

Ha Ha, someone mentioned the Pollard/Brady thing. I had forgotten all about it, truthfully. A funny thing one of my readers posted on Battle Red Blog was that if Belichick decides to play Brady the whole game this Sunday that we should blitz Bernard Pollard every play having him scream “I’m gonna knee cap ya, bitch!” at Tom. Thus, making Brady gun shy. It was funny. But honestly, who wants any of these guys to get hurt?

Just wanted to add that you guys were my Super Bowl pick over Minnesota to start the season. I got a 50 spot riding on this at the office. So help a brother out, huh?

Thanks, Mike!

Here are the links to our chat with Mike on his site. He broke it up into part one and part two.

The Patriots come into Sunday’s final regular season home game with a chance to reach their first goal, wining the AFC East. A victory assures that goal will be accomplished for the Patriots. Their chances look good, as they’ve yet to lose at home. Standing in the way are the Jacksonville Jaguars whose own playoff chances are remote. What chances they did have were probably blown last week with a late David Garrard interception against their division rivals, the Colts, at home in a 35-31 loss.

Look for the Patriots to throw the ball here some as Jacksonville is the worst team in the league rushing the passer and do not cover that well either. The Patriots will mix in some runs against a good Jaguar run defense, but this could be a game that gets Tom Brady going again and his first big game in some time.

And in the end the Patriots, with a flawed, younger team, may just walk out of yet another “hat and t-shirt game” victorious and wearing same proclaiming “2009 AFC East Champions.” And that will be one high point in what has otherwise been somewhat of a disappointing year. It also should serve as a reminder the year is not over and nothing has been decided as of yet.

Perhaps more hats and t-shirts are to come?

QB David Garrard (#9):

Garrard is a decent QB who may have had one of his better years throwing the ball. He’s gotten more accurate as his career has gone along and is completing 60% of his passes this year. He generally avoids big interceptions and has never really turned it over a lot throwing. He does have a tendancy to fumble, however, and has fumbled an incredibly high 13 times this year, losing it to the opponent 8 times. He throws well on the move and is strong at 245 lbs., but he’s been sacked 37 times so far this season. Occasionally, Garrard will take off and run and is dangerous in that aspect. It seems one thing Garrard has never done well is play effectively down the stretch against good teams. He has had a tendancy to play smart, keep a game close and then make a killer mistake against a good team late to kill the Jags chances. It happened just last week versus the Colts. Garrard has never beaten the Patriots as Jacksonville has lost all three games he’s appeared in against them.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (#32):

Jones is a fun player to watch. A mere 5’7″ he is strong as an ox and bounces off and runs through defenders regularly. The rest of the time he is elusive and fast and easy to lose track of on defense. This season Jones-Drew has taken his game to the next level, surpassing 1,000 yards rushing for the first time while maintaining effectiveness in the passing game. Despite his stature, he is good around the goal line and has pounded in 15 touchdowns this year. Jones-Drew has hit the 100 yard rushing mark in a game 5 times this year with 97 in another game. The Patriots did a good job against him in the running game in the 2007 playoff game against the Jaguars, holding him to 19 yards rushing. But in 2006, his rookie year, Jones-Drew ripped them up for 131 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Jones-Drew was born Maurice Drew but was raised by his grandparents. When his grandfather, Maurice Jones, passed away from a heart attack while the younger Maurice was at UCLA, the name was changed to Jones-Drew to honor the grandfather.

OT Eugene Monroe (#75) and Eben Britton (#73):

One of the stories of this game will be how well the Patriots can take advantage of Jacksonville’s two bookend rookie tackles. Monroe was the Jags first round choice in this past draft while Britton was the team’s second round choice. Reportedly the Patriots had a lot of interest in Britton prior to the draft. Monroe attended Virginia and was taken with the 8th pick in the draft. He’s started 11 of 13 games and played pretty well. He has an excellent future in the NFL, but still occasionally is prone to get overwhelmed by experienced defensive linemen or complicated defensive schemes. He was benched at one point due to a drop in play, but since is starting again and playing better. Britton has started all 12 games he’s played in. He’s pretty athletic but could use getting a bit stronger. He has held up okay this season and played decently, the upside is there, but look for the Patriots to dominate him if all their defensive linemen are healthy.

DT John Henderson (#98):

Henderson is a massive 6’7″ 335 lb. inside presence who helps the Jaguars stop the run. And they have done so pretty effectively this year, limiting opponents to 103 yards per game and a mere 3.9 per carry. A 2-time Pro Bowler, Henderson is actually one of the Jaguars more effective pass rushers too. He’s gotten to the QB 3 times from the inside on a team that ranks last in the NFL in sacks with a mere 14 for the year. Henderson has been extremely durable for the Jaguars, missing only 3 games in his 8 year career.

S Reggie Nelson (#25):

One of the reasons the Jaguars have been very inconsistent in pass coverage is the play of Nelson, which has to be considered disappointing. Nelson, their former first round choice, has all the tools and is supremely talented. But his reactions at times are slow and he misses tackles trying for the big “Sportscenter” hit sometimes. He has flashes, but like the rest of the Jags secondary, to many lapses. Look for the Patriots to throw on Sunday and take advantage of a secondary that at times seems out of sync.

Jaguars official site

JagsZone.com Fan Forum

After a few weeks absence, Trading Places makes a triumphant return this week, as we sit down and chat with Nate from the Teal Power Jaguars blog.

1) As as Jags fan, what are your thoughts on Jack Del Rio as a head coach? What are his strengths and weaknesses?

He does not know how to get the team pumped up for each game. In two trips to the west coast, the team was embarrassed in a shutout loss to Seattle and beatdown by 49ers. He also does not know how to get a great pass rush. Too many times the secondary was torched by QB’s taking a nap in the pocket not even having to stress getting sacked. I give some of the problems on offense on the lack of a proven QB. But he is very good at developing younger players including Jones-Drew and Mike Sims Walker. As a fan, I had no idea who MSW was before this season and now he is the 2nd best playmaker on the offense.

2) How much have the Jaguars changed since these teams last met in the playoffs, back in the 2007 season?

Since the 07 season, the Jags have lost big RB Fred Taylor and now Jones-Drew carries the load. MoJo has been able to produce and move the offense but without Taylor there is no backup RB. One big change is that the Jags have decent corners but zero pass rush. Dont have to worry about Brady getting injured because there will be no pressure. Yes the Jags have improved against the run but the lack of pass rush has lead to deep passing plays and more Cover 2 defense.

3) Maurice Jones-Drew has been tremendous this season – what can the Patriots do to try and slow him down?

The Patriots can just focus on not letting Jones Drew beat them by keeping eight in the box to contain Maurice. Maurice is from California and has not played many NFL games in freezing cold weather so look for him to be rusty on the sleet of Boston. Mike Sims Walker and TE Marcedes Lewis are the Jags best receiving threat but they wont need to be double covered. Most of the safety help will be used to slow down Maurice and keep him out of the open field with his speed..

4) How has David Garrard developed as a QB? What does he do best?

David Garrard is very good at throwing on the run and can use his feet to make plays. He still has to work on protecting the football because he fumbles a lot of times getting hit on his blindside. As shown on the Thursday night Indy loss, he forces pass when he doesnt have to. He had one Timeout and 1:00 remaining and he threw into double coverage with no pass rush and got intercepted to lose the game. He also missed some wide open WR’s to keep the team out of FG range at the end of the half. He has got to be the leader on offense for this team or the team really needs to look for a QB in the offseason. There is no backup for Garrard so all the pressure is on
his shoulders.

5) If you were game planning against the Jaguars, where would you attack, both on offense and defense?

If I was going to game plan on offense against the team, I would start with play action passes and moving the QB because the DL is slow so there is not much pass rush. Throw to the TE’s because the Jags have a hard time defending against the TE’s. Also Randy Moss will have a big game with the deep pass. On defense, I would have eight men watching Jones-Drew and blitz Garrard on 3rd and long because he has a hard time handling it. Backside pressure usually causes him to fumble and he has a hard time throwing when he is running left. Make sure a DB is close with Sims-Walker and TE Marcedes Lewis and limit the big play because the Jags usually settle for Josh Scobee FG’s. It is a good matchup for the Pats secondary especially if the snow and sleet are active at gametime.

My Prediction: Pats are looking to finish off the AFC East and clinch the division over Miami and since the game is in Boston, weather will be a huge factor. Tom Brady will have time to throw to Watson, Welker, and Moss and be able to score a lot of points. Patriots win 31-20

Thanks, Nate!

Here is the link to the questions we answered for Teal Power – Sit Down with the Enemy

By Greg Doyle, Patriots Daily Staff

The Patriots see their last division game come this Sunday in their second match up with Buffalo, who they saw in the opener. Once again, it would seem to make sense for the Patriots to pound it on offense. These Bills are very injured and banged up on defense and essentially are at least in nickel as a base defense most of the time. They are last in the NFL in rush defense and giving up 5.0 yards per carry, which is an unheard of high number in the NFL. In contrast, against the pass the Bills are effective, can rush the passer a bit and have an outstanding 10 to 25 touchdown to interception ratio by opposing quarterbacks. It’ll be bewildering if the Patriots, who ran more than usual last week, don’t show even more a commitment to that in the cold and blustery December Buffalo weather against a team that is simply pitiful against the run.

On offense the Bills will try to play conservative with an occasional long ball to Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. They’re gonna try to win this game 16-13. The Patriots simply can’t give up big plays and if they don’t, Buffalo will have a very hard time moving the ball consistently.

Lets take a look at some Bills who figure into this game:

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (#14):

A Harvard grad, Fitzpatrick has essentially taken over as Buffalo’s starting quarterback. The fact is Fitzpatrick is a smart quarterback with a very strong arm but simply lacks the accuracy to ever be a regular starting quarterback. He can do a competent job filling in and even occasionally make some excellent throws and plays, but he just hasn’t shown an ability to do it consistently. Fitzpatrick was formerly a 7th round choice with St. Louis who is now with his 3rd NFL team. For the year, Fitzpatrick has played in 8 games and 5 times he has had a QB rating of less than 70. He has thrown 5 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. His QB rating for the season is 60.2. One of the good things you can say, however, is the Bills are 3-3 in games he started, 2-5 in games he hasn’t. He can scramble a bit, so that is something the Patriots will have to look out for.

Offensive Lineman Kendall Simmons (#71):

Simmons was with the Patriots earlier this season having signed with them on September 6, 2009. He played in one game when he was, reportedly reluctantly, released when the Patriots needed to make room on the roster to account for injuries at other positions. Simmons then signed with Buffalo on November 24th and started 5 days later in a win versus Miami. He has started all 3 games at guard since joining the Bills. In fact, in 81 career NFL games the only one he has not started was the one game he played for the Patriots this year, a 59-0 win for New England. Simmons won two Super Bowls with Pittsburgh during the 2005 season and last season, though he was on injured reserve for the game last year.

TE Jonathan Stupar (#88):

Tight End Jonathan Stupar, who went to college at Virginia, originally signed after graduation with the Patriots in May of 2008. After being waived at the end of training camp last year by the Pats, he hooked on with the Bills practice squad and was activated to the regular roster towards the end of last year. He showed some promise this preseason as both a blocker and a pass catcher, leading the Bills in receiving their first 3 exhibition games. Now on the Bills regular roster, he is showing potential there as well having caught a pass in each of the last three games, two of which were wins. Stupar is the nephew of former Giants Super Bowl winning quarterback Jeff Hostetler and the son of a former Penn State offensive lineman. He has a brother who is a linebacker with Penn State now.

LB Bryan Scott (#43):

Scott, normally a safety throughout his college and NFL career, is playing linebacker for the Bills at the moment. The Bills are essentially playing a base 4-2-5 defense with Scott in the starting lineup and that is a major reason why they have been very good defensively versus the pass, but horrendous against the run. The way-undersized Scott (for linebacker) simply isn’t equipped to effectively play the run. Combine that with the undersized Bills at other defensive positions and they are the most inviting team in the NFL to try and manhandle.

Interim Head Coach Perry Fewell:

Fewell took over the team this season when Dick Jauron was fired on November 17, 2009. He has gotten the 3-6 team he took over to go 2-2 under him with every game being competitive (the losses were by 3 and 6 points). Fewell is 47 years old and has done a good job in the NFL as an assistant coach, sometimes with limited talent to work with. This week Fewell recalled meeting Bill Belichick for the first time in 1997 when Belichick was there scouting Corey Chavous. “I’ve always admired him, studied some of the things he’s done throughout his career. We’ve never worked together or coached together, but in your coaching career you look at people and like some of the things they do and you try to emulate those things” said Fewell this week. He’ll get a chance this Sunday to have the thrill of his so-far short head coaching career by topping Belichick’s team.

Bills Resources

By Greg Doyle, Patriots Daily Staff

The Patriots travel down to play the Miami Dolphins this Sunday at 1PM. At times, this stadium has been a house of horrors for the Patriots. While the Patriots have won 2 straight down there by comfortable margins, they are just 4-5 down there in the Bill Belichick years having lost 5 of 7 between the years 2000 and 2006. This year will not be easy either. While the Dolphins are injured and perhaps not as talented as New England at the moment, they are 3-2 at home while the Patriots are 1-4 (and the one win was essentially at a neutral site in London). This will not be an easy game and with the Patriots still reeling from an embarrassing performance Monday night against the Saints, on a short week and on the road for the second week in a row at a venue they traditionally struggle a, and a division game to boot, the panic around these parts could be about to double or triple. They’ll need a good effort to show they can move on past last week’s bad performance, and if they do it, it should be considered an impressive win for them.

Ricky Williams (#34):

Rejuvenated Ricky was playing well the last two years before injuries pretty much anointed him the sole option in the Dolphins’ backfield. But now that he is the featured back again, he’s put up three consecutive hundred yard games. For the year, he’s averaging a very impressive 5.1 per carry. These days, Ricky appears slimmer than his earlier run with the Saints and Dolphins. He is still powerful, but maybe a little less so then back when he was younger. But the amazing thing is, the slimmed down Ricky appears quicker and faster these days. In any event, he’s back being a very dangerous back and one the Dolphins will want to get going to control the clock on the Patriots and keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands.

Jake Long (#77):

Last year the Dolphins were coming off a 2007 1-15 campaign and had the first pick in the draft. They used it on this offensive left tackle, Jake Long. Its been worth it. He has been as good as advertised, solidifying the offensive line and dominating opponents. The Patriots showed their respect for him during the last matchup on November 8th when they shifted their best defensive lineman, Vince Wilfork, from his conventional nose tackle position to right end simply so he could matchup with the dominant Long. Long, a product of the University of Michigan, has been blocking effectively for Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne for many, many years as he also went to Michigan. He is a top notch run and pass blocker, but maybe slightly better at run blocking. It’ll be interesting to see if the Patriots repeat the Wilfork maneuver to counter Long or if they try something else to keep him a bit off-balance on Sunday.

Randy Starks (#94):

Starks is a Miami defensive lineman who has had his best year rushing the quarterback with 6 sacks thru 11 games, a new career high. He had a sack against the Patriots back in November and was generally disruptive up front. The former third round pick of Tennessee seems to be in the prime of his career at age 26 this month and is playing very well. While Starks is not the pure pass rusher you have to commit 2 guys to, with Joey Porter and Jason Taylor on his outside, he is the type of guy who can generate a push inside and beat a guard to the quarterback. He’ll also hold up well in the running game. Acquired in 2008 as a free agent, you’d have to mark Starks up as a good personnel move by Dolphins President Bill Parcells.

Cameron Wake (#91):

Wake has been a very pleasant surprise and another good acquisition this season for the Dolphins. Wake, who played at Penn State, got a tryout with the Giants in 2005 after going undrafted but was let go. After being out of football for a year, he signed with the British Columbia Lions of the CFL in 2007. In two season, Wake terrorized CFL quarterbacks with 39 sacks. Both seasons he was name the Most Outstanding Defensive Player in the CFL. The Dolphins signed him this offseason and while he has been mostly a situational pass rusher, he has logged significant time at linebacker in a couple games. For the year he has 4.5 sacks and has displayed good pass rushing ability once again for a part-time role. He had one of those sacks in the earlier game against the Patriots and he is someone that could be overlooked by teams concentrating on Joey Porter or Jason Taylor, but if the Patriots ignore him he could have a big game.

Vontae Davis (#21):

The Dolphins first round pick this year is now a starter at cornerback. The first meeting against the Patriots, he had an up and down day with an interception but also getting burned several times by Randy Moss including on the game winning 71 yard go ahead touchdown for the Patriots. He is the brother of 49ers Tight End Vernon Davis and came out of college at Illinois after his junior year, so he is still young. For the season he has 35 tackles and 1 interception and is showing a lot of potential to be a shut down corner. He’ll still have his moments of struggle, but if the Dolphins can generate a good pass rush he is capable of making a big play Sunday.

Bill Parcells:

Parcells, of course, is well-known to Patriots fans having coached the team between1993-1996, including an AFC Championship his last year here. For me personally, I’ll always feel Parcells made me a better fan with a better understanding of good football and championship football even though he didn’t win one here. His four years here were a very enjoyable period of watching Patriots football for me and a prelude to the Championship years we saw later when Bill Belichick, his long time colleague, took over the team in 2000. Parcells, for all his personality quirks, good and bad, has had a remarkable NFL career as a coach and front office man. He has pretty much rebuilt five NFL franchises from ground level in the Giants, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys and now Dolphins. While for a time his weakness was said to be personnel, he has shot holes in that theory with good acquisitions and decisions in Miami in all areas, including hiring, veteran acquisitions and re-signings and the draft. Some day I’d like to see him voted into the Patriots Hall of Fame for his important contributions, though brief, to the franchise.

Dolphins Resources

Miami Herald Dolphins blog

Miami Dolphins official site

ThePhins.com message board

For tonight’s Monday night matchup between the unbeaten New Orleans Saints and the Patriots, we’re turning to Saints blog Canal Street Chronicles for a Bayou perspective. Dave Cariello from CSC was kind enough to answer a few questions for us, and we did the same for him.

The Saints offense has been unbelievable this season, they really look unstoppable at times. Are there any weaknesses? If you were the Patriots, what would you try to take away or attack?

I’ve been asked this question many times. My answer is always the same: Get to Brees early, often and always. Defenses need to bring constant pressure, from all angles and positions. Mixing it up keeps Brees guessing and gets him off his game. It’s also key to make sure that all rushers have their hands in the air and are attempting to bat down balls at the line. Brees is on the shorter side; with pressure in his face and hands in the air he’s been known to have bad days. Lastly, teams need to remember to play the entire sixty minutes of football. Never give up this plan of attack even with a lead. The Saints are fourth quarter kings, outscoring their opponents 105-24 in the final fifteen minutes.

The Saints defense is much improved this season…what has been the biggest difference? Darren Sharper? Gregg Williams? Something else?

Most of it really does have to do with Gregg Williams. He has completely changed the culture of this defense as a whole and has already gotten so much more out of mostly the same players from previous years. Williams’ defense emphasizes blitzing, turnovers and populating the ball; all in an aggressive manner. Former defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs ran a very plain scheme but Williams has proven these guys are capable of so much more.
That’s not to say the off-season acquisition of players like Darren Sharper and Jabari Greer haven’t proved to be genius. Those two alone have made a huge difference. But I still think the coaching and culture change is the more overriding factor.

Where would you attack that Saints defense?

The Saints are a little weak in the run defense department. With defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis injured, their ability to stop the run up the middle has declined a bit. And if a rusher can get around the edge, they might have the advantage against linebacker Scott Shanle. To be successful, however, the Patriots would really have to dedicate to it.
For this game, starting cornerback Tracy Porter is sidelined with an injury. If the Patriots could get a desirable mismatch against whoever will be substituting for Porter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them exploit that.

Who is a player on defense that perhaps isn’t well known nationally, but who Patriots fans will know well after Monday night?

Well, if starting cornerback Tracy Porter wasn’t injured for this one he would be my definite answer. Since he doesn’t really qualify, I’m going to go with defensive tackle DeMario Pressley. He was called up from the practice squad after the team suffered a few injuries to their starters and has played pretty well in their place. He’s not mistake free but I doubt you’ve heard of him and he has the ability to make a name for himself in this league if he works hard.

Can the Saints run the table and go 16-0? Will they?

The Saints can do anything they want. I can tell you that I think I will have a better answer for you after this particular game. Saints fans are going to learn a lot about their team and the possibilities of this season when they face the Patriots on Monday night. This game is by far their biggest challenge this season. If they do manage to beat New England, the road still won’t be easy. Their remaining schedule is favorable but teams are only going to continue to play the Saints tougher and tougher in an effort to be the team to take down the Saints.  Plus, three of the Saints remaining games are against division opponents. Those are always tough and hard-fought.

Prediction?
It’s gonna be a close one. I’m gonna go with 35-32 Saints.

By Greg Doyle, Patriots Daily Staff

A terrific Monday night match-up is at hand between the 10-0 Saints and 7-3 Patriots. But, despite all the hype, this is actually one of the two games the Patriots could most afford to lose along with the Carolina game, given that they’re against NFC opponents. But the reality for the Patriots is, after the loss to the Colts and with some still tough matchups on the horizon such as in Miami and in Houston, they can’t “afford” to lose any games. They may, but each one risks the coveted bye and #2 seed position once the playoffs come. So, they do in fact “need” this game and it would probably do a lot for the team’s confidence to get it as this will be the toughest opponent they’ll see the rest of this regular season.

For the Saints, they pretty much have the division sewn up. But home field advantage throughout the playoffs is still in question and they lack a “signature” win that could come at the expense of the still-feared Patriots. The Saints offense is as good as advertised and as good as the Patriots have seen in the Bill Belichick years. The Saints defense, while decent, is really pretty much middle-of-the-pack. The task for both teams, just slow down the opponent’s offense a bit and outscore them. While usually what is popularly thought to occur in NFL games never comes to pass when they actually get between the lines, this may be one time it lives up to the expectations. With these two offenses, expect a shootout and a lot of scoring and fun Monday night.

QB Drew Brees (#9):

Brees is in the conversation with the Patriots’ Tom Brady and Colts’ Peyton Manning as the best quarterback in the NFL. Originally a second round choice of the San Diego Chargers, Brees has really developed into a top talent. Now 30 years old, there were questions about Brees’ size when he came into the NFL as he stands only 6 feet tall and isn’t the biggest guy in the world physically either. While in college Brees brought Purdue to their first Rose Bowl in 2001 in over three decades. Now with the Saints, Brees is leading the franchise to heights they’ve never known before including the 2006 NFC Championship Game and now a 10-0 record here in 2009. He has an excellent 22 to 9 TD/INT ratio and is very good moving around the pocket and throws well on the run. Brees owns a 2-0 record in his career as a starter against the Patriots and Bill Belichick, having beaten them with the Chargers back in 2002 and 2005. Still, despite his success against the Patriots this year will be only the third year in his eight years as a starting quarterback he’ll lead a team to the post-season. His career post-season record so far is 1-2.

RBs Reggie Bush (#25) Pierre Thomas (#23) and Mike Bell (#21):

Once upon a time, Bush was one of the most explosive, electrifying and dangerous (to defenses) player to ever sprint across the college football landscape. Now he is part of the Saints triumvirate of running backs they trot out, each with different skills, strengths and weaknesses. Bush can still be a breakaway threat and is a very, very good pass catcher but the fact is he is not an every down back, has averaged a pedestrian 3.9 per carry for his career (though 5.0 this year) and is not quite as explosive as he used to be after major knee injury. He is more like the Saints version of Kevin Faulk and gets about 10 touches per game. Here is one thing to keep an eye on, Bush will put the ball on the ground with 16 fumbles in his career and more than 1 every 50 times he touches it.

Pierre Thomas may be the best of the three backs. He went undrafted out of Illinois, that was a serious oversight. The truth is Thomas was a NFL talent in college but for whatever reason always rotated early in his career with other backs who were good college backs, but not the talent Thomas was. His senior year Rashard Mendenhall, now with the Steelers, took carries from him. There was some thought he could play fullback when he came into the league, but he is slimmed down and showing very good elusiveness as a tailback these days. Thomas is averaging an electric 5.6 per carry and leads the Saints in rushing. He is the best all-around back on the team as he can do a little of everything, run wide, run inside with power, get out in space and even catch some passes.

Mike Bell is probably the most powerful back of the three and the best pure inside runner. Like Thomas, Bell went undrafted but has proven to be a very productive NFL player. Bell runs with good power and you’ll see him in short yardage and also he is good at killing the clock when the Saints have the lead, which they have had a lot this year. He isn’t much of a pass catcher, with only 2 on the season, but the Saints don’t really call on him to do that. Bell may be a bit of a fumbler as well with 4 in 320 career touches or once every 80 touches or so.

WR Marques Colston (#12):

Colston was an absolute steal of a 7th round draft choice in 2006 and Patriots fans are about to discover how good this guy really is. He is somewhat similar to Randy Moss in that, while probably not quite as fast, he is big at 6’4″ 225 lbs. and presents huge match up problems for most cornerbacks in the NFL. He is simply tall enough to snatch balls thrown high and has good leaping ability and he is strong enough to physically shield off defenders and get to balls that way. He has fantastic hands as well. Given the other speed receivers and excellent tight ends the Saints have, its difficult to just focus on Colston and that is going to make dealing with him a very tall chore for the Patriots on Monday.

DE Will Smith (#91):

Smith is an underrated defensive end with 45 sacks in his 6 NFL seasons and 8.5 so far this year. He faced the Patriots once before in 2005 and had a sack and a half as well as a forced fumble in a 24-17 Saints loss in Foxboro. The Patriots generally do a good job on good pass rushers, but Smith is definitely a player they’ll have to account for and who shows up in both the passing and running game. He plays with emotion as well and fires up his teammates.

CB Randall Gay (#20):

Patriots fans will remember Gay as the undrafted free agent who ended up starting as a rookie in 2004, including in a winning Super Bowl effort. Two injury plagued years were followed up with a solid campaign for the Pats in 2007 that ultimately landed Gay in the Super Bowl again. He left following that season for the mega-contract he is now playing with for the Saints. A Louisiana native and LSU grad who won a National Championship there is playing at home and playing well now for the undefeated Saints. Last year he started 13 of the 14 games he played for the Saints, but this year he has only started 3 of the 10 Saints game, though he has started the last two. Gay is a solid player who can be beat and occasionally is, but also makes some plays, is solid against the run and is a good overall player. As the Patriots well know.

Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams:

One of the more encouraging aspects of this game that suggests the Patriots could win this game is Williams. Beyond the mediocre statistical ranking in both yards allowed and points allowed, the Saints defense is coordinated by Williams, a coach the Patriots often have dominated over the years. When he was head coach of the Buffalo Bills between 2001 and 2003, the Patriots went 5-1 against him. When he moved on to coordinate the Washington Redskins defense, the Patriots lit him up and his defense for 52 points in 2007 and it was lucky the number was that low. They have gone 6-1 against his defenses during the Bill Belichick era averaging more than 30 points per game in their victories. Given that the Saints only have an average defense anyway this year and given the proficiency of the Patriots offense overall and particularly against Williams in the past, it seems reasonable to conclude the Patriots will score somewhere in the mid-30′s to low 40′s in this game and if they can slow down the Saints offense at all, they’ll win.

Saints Resources: