by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

I hope you all had a nice Christmas yesterday. But there’s still one present under the tree for draft watching Pats fans, to be opened next Sunday night. Let’s pick up the package and give it a good shake. What do we know? 

One thing we know: the Patriots will have a pick in the top ten of the 2008 NFL Draft next April.

Another thing we know: thanks to the Niners’ Shaun Hill, it won’t be picks two, three or four.

Another thing: no way the Pats pick ahead of the Jets, sadly.

Another thing: the Pats could pick as high as fifth, but they’ll need wins in the final week by the Chiefs, Raiders and Ravens, combined with a San Francisco loss, in order to do so.

Another thing: The Pats will not pick any later than number 9. The Niners are the only five-win team, and among the four six-win teams that immediately trail them in the Race to the Bottom, only Cincinnati has a weaker schedule (after sixteen weeks) than the Niners. In order for the Pats to slip to ninth, San Francisco must beat Cleveland while the Bengals lose to Miami.

Here’s the chart for week seventeen:

So there we are. For awhile, it looked like the Pats would turn the #28 pick in the 07 Draft into Randy Moss and the #2 pick in 08 (which would have had to have been the greatest draft trade ever), but then Hill came along and brought New England down to earth while lifting the Niners off the deck for the first time in their lost 2007 campaign.

Of course, there’s the school of thought that says the Pats are better off this way - the bonus money paid to top five picks can be onerous, and a team ends up paying front-line guaranteed Nate Clements-cash to a player that hasn’t proven anything. To this end, the recent upswing by the Niners may have actually helped the Pats to avoid just such a conundrum.

I suppose. Yet I can’t help but be disappointed that it won’t be the Pats on the clock immediately following the Dolphins when the draft begins next April. The booing by the Jets fans in attendance may have alone been worth the price.

Whatever happens this Sunday, the Pats will have their highest draft pick since they took Richard Seymour with the sixth selection in 2001. There’s still a chance for an upgrade, too - let’s look ahead to this weekend’s pivotal games.

GAMES OF THE WEAK

San Francisco at Cleveland - You made your point, Shaun. Throw us a bone here, will ya? In an oddity, the Browns can still get in the playoffs even with a loss, as long as the Colts beat the Titans in Indy. So I don’t know what the Browns are playing for here - other than staying sharp in case they get the chance to extend their season into next week.

Kansas City at New York Jets - The Jets presently hold the third pick, so you have to wonder what the approach will be here. A win over the Chiefs could drop New York as low as the eighth pick, the way I figure it. The Chiefs are one of the three teams that need to win in order for the Pats to grab the fifth pick. At the least, a Kansas City win will be sure to move the Pats ahead of the Chiefs.

San Diego at Oakland - The Raiders are another team that, with a win, could allow the Pats to move up. But the Chargers are still playing for the third seed in the AFC, which would allow them to avoid a wild card round matchup with the Jaguars. I’m not holding my breath here. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - Same deal here. The Steelers still have an outside shot at the third seed if they beat the Ravens and San Diego loses. Both have 4:15 starts on Sunday, so there will be something to play for through 7:00 p.m. Working in our favor: this is the Pittsburgh Steelers, so maybe they’ll stumble and the Pats will sneak ahead of the Ravens.

Cincinnati at Miami - The Bengals contributed mightily to the plummeting stock of the Pats pick by losing in San Francisco a couple of weeks back. The Bengals stink on the road, and a loss to the 1-14 Dolphins to close yet another underachieving season wouldn’t exactly be a shocker. If Cincinnati wins, though, the Pats will pick no later than eighth.

Let’s see what happens this weekend. We’ll be back with the final edition of Niner Watch next week.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Shaun Hill didn’t get the memo, apparently.

The Niners’ third-string quarterback, making the first start of his six-year NFL career, continued his efficient play (107.4 quarterback rating over the two weeks) to lead San Francisco over Cincinnati for its fourth win of the season against ten losses, dropping the Patriots from the 2nd pick to the 5th if the 2008 NFL Draft were held today.

The 3-12 St. Louis Rams, with losses to Green Bay and Pittsburgh since our last Niner Watch, presently have the inside track to the number 2 pick, followed by the Jets and Falcons at 3-11.

Because the Niners can now finish with as many as six wins, this week’s chart expands to fifteen teams. Note that we’ve included the remaining schedule for each of the Failing Fifteen in the far right hand columns.

So the question now is what Patriots fans can expect for the pick that New England acquired last April (along with the fourth round choice that turned into Randy Moss), in exchange for the 28th selection in the ‘07 Draft.

San Francisco has two playoff teams on its remaining schedule. NFC South champ Tampa could still grab the third seed over West champ Seattle, though they need some help because the Hawks have a head-to-head advantage. Cleveland could clinch an AFC wild card spot with a win over the extremely accomodating Bengals this weekend, but could still be vying for the division title when they entertain the Niners in Week Seventeen.

Point being that with two motivated opponents ahead, it looks as though San Francisco is likely to finish with a 4-12 final record. If that’s the case, the Patriots will do no worse than the 5th pick they hold today. And by the way, that’s not a bad return for last year’s 28th pick.

But can they do better? Sure, but they have to hope for a complete collapse by the 6-8 Arizona Cardinals. The Cards will host both the 3-11 Falcons and the 3-12 Rams over the next two weeks. If the Cards - losers of two straight - go belly up over the holidays, the Pats could find themselves as high as #3 when it’s all said and done.

It’s possible, I guess - after all, Arizona has lost twice to the Niners. Further, playing that scenario out - if the 3-11 New York Jets also find a way to win one more game (the home finale with the 4-10 Chiefs is the best bet), the Patriots could wind up with that 2nd pick after all.

The Bengals showed us last week that these grand plans can all go awry when a turd surfaces in the punch bowl. Will the Cardinals cooperate and actually lose two consecutive home games to teams with a combined record of 6-23?

It seems unlikely. If I had to guess today, I’d see a top 10 that looks something like this (ties broken by strength of schedule, as usual):

1. Miami (1-15)
2. St. Louis (3-13)
3. Atlanta (3-13)
4. San Francisco (4-12)
5. Kansas City (4-12)
6. Baltimore (4-12)
7. Oakland (4-12)
8. NY Jets (4-12)
9. Chicago (5-11)
10. Cincinnati (6-10)

Maybe Arizona manages to lose to the Rams, who haven’t played that badly of late, and the Pats upgrade to the 3rd pick (and the Cards vault to the top ten).

How bad can it get? The way I see it, if Hill continues to revive San Francisco and the Niners upset both the Bucs and Browns, as many as nine teams can finish ‘ahead’ of them in the Race to the Bottom. Still not a bad return in exchange for the 28th pick, but a far cry from the second pick in the draft.

Of course, there remains a number of other possibilities, which is why we include the chart. Have at it.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

San Francisco’s loss to Carolina on Sunday means that if the 2008 NFL Draft was held today, the New England Patriots would hold the second pick.

Everything went the Pats way this week as the Jets beat the Dolphins and the Rams beat the Falcons, a sequence of events that left the Niners, Atlanta, St. Louis and New York all tied in the Race to the Bottom with three victories apiece.

Once again, San Francisco’s lowly .484 strength of schedule (SOS) gives the Niners the edge, meaning at the moment they trail only the 0-12 Miami Dolphins as worst team in the league. They’re followed by the Falcons (fast risers, or droppers I guess, as losers of three straight), the Rams (in danger with three wins out of the last four) and the Jets, who dropped to number five from number two last week with their trashing of Miami.

Lurking right behind the three-win pack are the Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders and Ravens, all 4-8. The Bengals have the sixth pick by SOS, and the tie between Kansas City and Oakland is broken only by Kansas City’s .333 average against the rest of the AFC. The Ravens lose out as the 4-8 team with the toughest schedule.

Here’s this week’s chart:

They’re not on the chart, but there are another seven teams trailing this pack, all of them with 5-7 records. But clearly the nine teams shown are the current frontrunners for the first picks in the 2008 Draft.

Now, let’s take a quick look ahead to next weekend:

GAMES OF THE WEAK

Minnesota at San Francisco - The Niners have been right in their last few games, so it was good to see them take a step back in Carolina, where any visiting team should have a reasonable chance to win. Now they return home to meet surging Minnesota, who all of a sudden could be the best team in the NFC North. But its the Vikings. I can’t help but feel like they’ll screw it up, but that might be just post Mike Tice-syndrome. Good news: San Francisco is 26th against the run.

St. Louis at Cincinnati - The Rams have been playing pretty well after spending half the season without a win, but I think we’d like to see them take the pipe this weekend. Cincinnati, just one loss behind the Niners, have a .479 strength of schedule, the easiest of all the teams on our chart this week.

Cleveland at NY Jets - The Jets are like the Rams - the Niners have the clear advantage in the SOS tiebreaker, and as long as they stay tied, its all good. So a Jets loss here only hurts the Patriots if the Niners somehow manage to beat Minnesota.

New Orleans at Atlanta - The Falcons are making a serious run at the Niners here, though they would still have to overcome that strength of schedule tiebreaker. New Orleans is a game and a tiebreaker (SOS) behind San Francisco, so we’d rather see the Saints falter.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Damn you, Neil Rackers.

That’s the story this week, as Pro Bowler Rackers hooked a 32 yard field goal in overtime, opening the door for the San Francisco 49′ers to capture their third win of the season (against eight losses) with a dramatic decision over the Cardinals in Arizona.

End result: if the 2008 NFL Draft was held this weekend, the Patriots would have the 4th pick, as opposed to the 2nd selection that they held at this time last week.

Further compounding our suffering were the 2-9 New York Jets, who got back on the losing track by laying down for the Cowboys, 34-3, on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. The loss pulled New York from the 5th pick last week into the 3rd slot this week, one choice ahead of the Patriots.

St. Louis’s 4th quarter home loss to Seattle brought them back into the 2nd slot. The Rams, 2-9, get the edge over the Jets by virtue of a slightly easier schedule at this point in the season.

San Francisco wins the tiebreaker over Atlanta and Oakland, also 3-8, for the same reason. The Niners’ creampuff schedule, the easiest of all of the contenders on our list this week, still positions them well for any ties should the Rams and Jets misstep in the weeks ahead.

Here’s the chart for Week Thirteen.

Meanwhile, on this week’s slate, three of our spotlight games feature five of the ten worst teams in the league.

SMALLEST GAMES OF THE WEEK

Jets at Dolphins - The Bizarro Big Game to counter the AFC South showdown between the Jags and Colts in Indy. You watch - the Dolphins WILL win their first game of the season this weekend. The Fins have been getting closer every week lately, and the Jets continue to get worse. Maybe Kareem Brown can find a way to help the Pats somehow. He owes them - his agent even said so.

49′ers at Panthers - I don’t like the way this is going. The Niners will likely be emboldened by their road win last week, and there are few teams that are as bad at home as the Panthers. By the way, why do people still think of John Fox as one of the better head coaches in the league?

Falcons at Rams - The Rams had won two straight before losing that divisional battle with the first place Seahawks last week, so there’s a good chance they will draw even with the Niners again, allowing San Francisco to slide ahead of them with that Strength of Schedule tiebreaker. Have to watch these Falcons though - they’re a sleeper in the Race to the Bottom. In fact, they’re just about in a coma.

Broncos at Raiders - Denver is still in the race for the division title, just behind the Chargers, providing further reason for us to pull for an Oakland win here. The Raiders could have driven the Niners down the the 5th pick this week, but they blew it by actually beating the Chiefs in Kansas City. Let’s hope they’re on a roll.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Hey, was that Niner Watch I saw mentioned in Mike Reiss’s mailbag today? Mike, you shouldn’t have!

It was an appreciated mention - and timely, as it turns out. Big doings on the old bottom feeder chart this week. Last Sunday, the surrogate mother of the Patriots’ first round draft pick, the 2-7 San Francisco 49′ers, reached down deep and lost a HUGE matchup with the 1-8 St Louis Rams - at home, mind you, as if the loss itself wasn’t enough - to vault themselves from last week’s fourth spot to the NUMBER TWO PICK IN THE NFL DRAFT, if it was held today.

Even better, the 1-8 New York Stoolies somehow managed to beat the Pittsburgh “We’ll stop them, America” Steelers in the Meadowlands, meaning that the Jets dropped from (last week) the pick just ahead of the Niners to (this week) the one three slots after them. I am still checking nfl.com every twenty-minutes to make sure this wasn’t a mistake.

I’ve told you about my dream before, since Spygate - the Pats go undefeated, win Three Games to Glory, sign Randy Moss to a series of incentive-laden one year contracts (”$750,000 if you catch a touchdown pass between your knees.”), AND, just to send a disconsolate, embittered nation completely over the edge, the Pats get the number one pick in the draft, just ahead of the Jets.

So far, so good. Getting that first pick might be rough, in light of the historically awful Dolphins, but otherwise….I have a dream today.

Anyway, now we have the Niners, Rams, Raiders and Jets all tied at 2-8, but they get stacked on the basis of the second tiebreaker (after winning percentage), which is strength of schedule. Here, the Niners have all the advantage they need: their opponents have a meager .463 combined winning percentage, followed by the Rams at .506, the Raiders at .519, and the Jets at .538. Are these percentages going to swing that much to erase San Francisco’s advantage? The Niners’ remaining opponents are road games in Arizona (an improving 5-5) and Carolina (4-6, and they are horrible at home. This one worries me), then home games (where San Francisco is 1-4) with Minnesota (4-6), Cincinnati (3-7), and Tampa Bay (6-4), before a road finale in Cleveland, where the Browns could be playing for a playoff spot. A lot of promise in that slate.

The Bengals and Falcons, both 3-7, are still threats to jump into that first pool of teams, though the Bengals have the easiest remaining schedule of all and might have to deliberately lose in order to stay in the race.

We say goodbye to a handful of teams at the bottom of our list - the Cards, the Texans, the Broncos and the Eagles - who went to .500 with wins this week. Unless they all lose six straight, its unlikely they’ll be in contention for the top few picks in the draft. We’ll be leaner without their dead weight.

As Warner Wolf says, let’s go to the videotape!

I marvel that I can put a spreadsheet right on the Internet. As Warner says, come on!

SMALLEST GAMES OF THE WEEK

Jets at Cowboys - In Dallas, four days after a major upset at home? I don’t expect the Jets will do anything other than keep the pace on the big spreadsheet for another week. I’ll pull for another shocker, but I fear it will be in vain.

Niners at Cards - I’m encouraged by the Cardinals’ two game romp over the Lions and Bengals, which got them back to 5-5. Now, just one game off the pace in their division, Arizona has a home game against a team that has lost eight straight. As Warner (not Kurt, but Wolf) says, come on!

Dolphins at Steelers - No. I won’t say it. I won’t. It would be too, too much to ask for.

Raiders at Chiefs - Despite this matchup, the Raiders have a horrifyingly tough schedule the rest of the way (.627). They will be a factor.

Thanks for shopping with us and thanks again to Mike for the support. Be sure to check back next week.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Week Two here on the Niner Watch and we’ve already had a change at the number one spot in the dash for the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft.

The Miami Dolphins took another step towards immortality this week by heroically blowing a fourth-quarter lead to Buffalo, at home, to become the last winless team lying in the Race to the Bottom of the NFL.

The St. Louis Rams, possessors of top spot last week, suffered a tough-luck win over the Saints, which I’m sure their management regrets already. This is why the Jets were glad they had the week off. Things happen, people get carried away.

Honestly, Our 2-7 Niners deserved a better fate than to simply remain again in the fourth slot, what with their note-perfect 24-0 shutout loss to Seattle. What more can they do?

The 49′ers get the edge over the proud, fearsome tradition of the Oakland Raiders, also playing at a .222 clip, through the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker.

The Niners have a big edge in over the Raiders, Falcons, Bengals and Vikings (all one game back) in that tiebreaker, the first after winning percentage. That makes me think they may have some staying power.

There’s another nine teams on our list this week, all currently in competition for tail end of the top ten and the rest of the top fifteen picks. Strangely, many are involved in division races anyway.

Let’s take a look at this week’s Big Board:

What concerns me about the 49′ers is their strength of schedule going forward - they have the second easiest schedule when it comes to remaining opponents (a combined winning percentage of .397). They could slip up and win one or two of those. Comparatively, the Jets face a .619 schedule, the Raiders a .584, and the Dolphins a .524. Grim as far as any hope for the top spot.

What to watch for this Sunday?

Smallest Games of the Week

Rams at Niners - Believe me, this game is HUGE. If the Niners lose here, that moves them ahead of St. Louis in next week’s rankings, no worse than #3. The Rams are reeling, having found to way to win.

Steelers at Jets - Jets can get to number 2 with a loss and a St. Louis win. The Jets are heavily favored to get blasted by the Steelers in Giants Stadium. I know what you’re thinking - it’s too much to hope for. It’s too much.

Dolphins at Eagles - Rookie quarterback this week…..in Philadelphia. Cam Cameron is pushing all the right buttons in Miami.

Raiders at Vikings - I’d love to see the Raiders win this, and it strikes me that Minnesota is exactly the kind of place that such a thing could happen. Although, the last time an AFC West team went to the Metrodome, they got ran out of the building. I think we have to prepare for a 2-8 Raiders team, right on the Niners tail.

This is just like when those couples get some woman to carry and birth a baby for them. Sort of. Right?

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Last week we debuted “If The AFC Playoffs Began Today“, which will track the American conference pennant race over the next eight weeks (counting today).

Afterwards, our friend Ozzy suggested we also flip things upside down to see how to the Race to the Bottom is going.

This is of particular interest to Oz and others because during last April’s NFL Draft, the Patriots traded one of their first round picks (#28, which became lineman Joe Staley) for San Francisco’s fourth round pick (#110, which became Randy Moss) and the Niners first round pick in the 2008 draft.

At this point, it’s an understatement to say you’d be plenty happy with Staley for Moss even up, considering that Moss could end up getting MVP votes later this year. Naturally, at the time of the deal, the real plum was the Niners ‘08 first rounder.

Opinion was split on where that pick would land. Some noted the Niners’ strong finish in ‘06 and wondered whether, in the relatively weak NFC, the Pats would get much of an upgrade at all. Others were more skeptical, thinking San Francisco would wind up in the middle of the NFL pack at worst case scenario, and the Pats would easily move up into the Top 20.

Then Spygate happened, and the Pats lost their own ‘08 first round pick in the melee. The Niners pick became even more significant to Pats fans, who thought it might be kind of funny if the punished Pats ended up with a top pick anyway. This was tempered a bit by San Francisco’s 2-0 start, but the Niners have gone on to drop six straight, and it looks like there’s at least a chance that Pats fans could end up livin’ the dream after all.

So we’ll follow it week to week, with our handy spreadsheet:

First, I should explain what we have here. This is a listing of the thirteen teams with the worst records in the NFL to date. They’re listed in order of how they would select if the NFL draft was held today.

The first few columns should be self explanatory. Games played, win and loss record, and winning percentage. The first draft tiebreaker and W/L percentage is SOS, or strength of schedule. Here you see the combined winning percentage of the team’s opponents to date. If teams are still tied there, we move on to winning percentage in division, and then in conference. The current percentages are listed.

The next one is a coin flip. I’m working on a column for that. Maybe winning percentage of coin flips to date?

The final column is the combined winning percentages of each team’s remaining opponents. This might help us see which teams have the hardest schedules the rest of the way, and as a result, the inside track on the top pick in next year’s draft.

So what does the spreadsheet tell us this week?

It’s looking pretty good for the Pats, as they would pick fourth if the draft was held this week. The Niners are one of four teams tied at 2-6, but they get the fourth slot because they sucked against an easier schedule.

Since we’re discussing sucking, I would be remiss were I not to mention the New York Jets, proud owners of a 1-8 record, and presently, the pick just ahead of the Patriots. A big part of living the dream here is the Patriots picking ahead of the Jets, for myriad reasons we have detailed here previously. So we need a little help at this point, and I wonder how much we’re going to get, since the Jets are still to face seven teams (including Pittsburgh, Dallas, Cleveland, Tennessee and the Patriots) with a combined winning percentage of .649. The Jets could live the dream of losing 15 friggin’ games, though they have a major test against the even shittier Dolphins coming up.

The Niners, on the other hand, have eight games against teams that are a combined .400. They still have games with the 0-8 Rams, the 2-6 Bengals, and two against the 3-5 Cardinals. When you’re in a Race to the Bottom, even one win might push you right out of the top (bottom) ten. This pick might look sort of mediocre before we’re finished, unless the Niners can dig down deep and find a way to quit on Mike Nolan. One thing that would help is divisional losses; the Niners are going nowhere fast with that smart .667 clip. Something has to give tomorrow night when San Francisco faces Seattle. How bad is the NFC West when the fourth worse team in football is winning two out of three against it?

Looking at the rest of the chart, the Raiders are a real threat to slide ahead of the Niners as they play out the string against a combined .563. Only the Jets and 3-5 Eagles have a harder schedule ahead of them.

We’ll take a look at this again once this week’s results have been recorded, so be sure to tune in.