October 1, 2016

Patriots/Redskins Preview From AccuScore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 78% of simulations over the Washington Redskins. Tom Brady is averaging 295 passing yards and 2.34 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 44 rushing yards and a 34% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 22% of simulations where Washington Redskins wins, Rex Grossman averages 1.67 TD passes vs 1.1 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.14 TDs to 2.12 interceptions. Roy Helu averages 104 rushing yards and 0.81 rushing TDs when Washington Redskins wins and 57 yards and 0.28 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots have a 59% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 89% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is WAS +9 — Over/Under line is 48

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD WASHINGTON REDSKINS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-5-0 All Games 5-7-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-2-0 Home Games 2-4-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 6-5-0 When Underdog 4-6-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 4-4-0 Non-Division Opp 2-6-0 New England Patriots
Opp Under .500 2-1-0 Opp .500+ Record 2-4-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD WASHINGTON REDSKINS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 8-6-2 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 3-3-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 8-5-2 Washington Redskins
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 4-4-2 New England Patriots
Opp Under .500 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-3-2 Washington Redskins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD WASHINGTON REDSKINS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 7-5-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 5-7-0 No Edge
On Road 4-2-0 At Home 3-3-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 6-10-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 3-5-0 OVER

AFC Playoff Chances

Tim Tebow did it again.  After more late game drama – this time in Minnesota – Tebow led his team to a win.  Denver has now won 6 of its last 7 games, and took over first place on the strength of a tiebreaker against Oakland.  The Raiders are still the slight favorites according to the computers, winning the AFC West 45.9 percent of the time.  The Broncos win the division 41.6 percent of the time.  A week ago the Raiders were nearly 80 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  Now they are just a 50-50.  Denver basically has the same odds as Oakland to reach the postseason, gaining nearly 19 percentage points over last week.  San Diego kept its slim hopes alive for a late run at the division title with its first win in eight weeks.

Aside from the AFC West, the other divisions look to be all but over.  New England is the leader in the East, Houston in the South, and either Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the North.  Whichever team doesn’t win the North will take one Wild Card spot.  That leaves one spot open in the postseason with four 7-5 teams vying for it.

Both West teams are in contention for the final Wild Card depending on which ultimately wins the division.  The other squads involved are the Bengals, Titans, and Jets.  After Week 13, AccuScore simulations favor both AFC West teams to make the postseason.  Cincinnati is next at just under 40 percent probability, but that is 17.7 percentage points worse than a week ago.  Tennessee gained 8.6 percentage points after a solid win over the Bills.  The Titans are 31.7 percent likely for the playoffs.  New York is really in a bind because it does not currently hold tiebreakers against its direct competition for the final playoff spot.

AFC WEEK 13 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 13 WK 14 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 29.7% 48.3% 18.6% 41.6%
TENNESSEE TITANS 23.1% 31.7% 8.6% 10.6%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 4.6% 11.2% 6.6% 10.0%
NEW YORK JETS 21.6% 25.5% 3.9% 0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 89.6% 93.3% 3.7% 89.4%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 96.9% 99.8% 2.9% 46.3%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 96.3% 98.2% 1.9% 53.6%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 99.6% 99.8% 0.2% 99.6%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 1.5% 0.0% -1.4% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 57.5% 39.8% -17.7% 0.1%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 78.9% 49.9% -29.1% 45.9%

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