December 10, 2016

Patriots/Broncos Preview From AccuScore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 67% chance to beat the Denver Broncos. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 41 rushing yards and a 28% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 33% of simulations where Denver Broncos wins, Tim Tebow averages 1.04 TD passes vs 0.34 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.82 TDs to 0.73 interceptions. Willis McGahee averages 114 rushing yards and 1.11 rushing TDs when Denver Broncos wins and 71 yards and 0.52 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots has a 10% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is DEN +3 — Over/Under line is 46.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Denver Broncos ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-6-0 All Games 7-6-0 No Edge
Road Games 4-3-0 Home Games 1-5-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 6-6-0 When Underdog 6-3-0 Denver Broncos
Non-Division Opp 4-5-0 Non-Division Opp 4-4-0 Denver Broncos
Opp .500+ Record 4-4-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-5-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Denver Broncos ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 5-11-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 3-5-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 4-8-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 3-7-0 New England Patriots
Opp Under .500 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-3-0 Denver Broncos

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD Denver Broncos O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 8-5-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 7-6-0 OVER
On Road 5-2-0 At Home 4-2-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 10-6-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 6-2-0 OVER

Playoff Odds

Rookie T.J. Yates led Houston to history Sunday with a dramatic comeback victory over San Francisco.  The win clinched the AFC South and the first playoff spot in history for the Texans.  Right now, the team also holds tiebreakers over New England and Baltimore for the top seed in the AFC.  The Patriots should be the next team to clinch their division as they are 99.8 percent likely to do so according to simulations.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are still battling for the AFC North crown and seeding with the Ravens currently leading at 58.2 percent probability.

Tim Tebow and the Broncos made the biggest jump this week after finally taking over the lead in the AFC West outright.  Denver gained 21.7 percentage points in playoff probability, and is 62.3 percent likely to win the division. On the flip side, Oakland dropped 15.7 percentage points to be just 34.1 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  San Diego kept its slim hopes of salvaging the season alive with another win, but still lost ground because of the Denver win.  The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 in 10 simulations.

With Baltimore and Pittsburgh both 10-3, there is only 1 remaining playoff spot available in the AFC.  The Jets have won three straight games and are currently the most likely team to win the final Wild Card spot.  New York gained over 20 percentage points in playoff probability from last week, and is 46.1 percent likely to make the postseason.  Despite a run of poor form, Oakland is still next in line at 34.1 percent.  Tennessee couldn’t pull off the upset against New Orleans and is 24.4 percent probability. The biggest loser this week was Cincinnati.  The shocking last second loss to Houston eliminated the Bengals from a shot (albeit long) at the AFC North, and pushed them to back of the line for the Wild Card.  They are currently 7-6 and make the playoffs in just 15.3 percent of simulations.

AFC WEEK 14 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 14 WK 15 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 48.3% 70.0% 21.7% 62.3%
NEW YORK JETS 25.5% 46.1% 20.7% 0.2%
HOUSTON TEXANS 93.3% 100.0% 6.7% 100.0%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 98.2% 99.5% 1.3% 58.2%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 99.8% 99.9% 0.2% 99.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 99.9% 0.2% 41.8%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 11.2% 9.6% -1.6% 8.4%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2.7% 0.3% -2.4% 0.3%
TENNESSEE TITANS 31.7% 24.4% -7.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 49.9% 34.1% -15.7% 29.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 39.8% 15.3% -24.5% 0.0%

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