December 4, 2016

Patriots/Giants Preview From AccuScore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 71% chance to beat the New York Giants. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 56 rushing yards and a 43% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 29% of simulations where New York Giants wins, Eli Manning averages 2.6 TD passes vs 0.76 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.89 TDs to 1.4 interceptions. Ahmad Bradshaw averages 58 rushing yards and 0.52 rushing TDs when New York Giants wins and 39 yards and 0.27 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 88% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -9 — Over/Under line is 52

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

NEW YORK GIANTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 3-3-1 All Games 4-3-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 2-1-0 Home Games 2-1-0 No Edge
When Underdog 1-0-0 When Favored 4-3-0 New York Giants
Non-Division Opp 2-2-1 Non-Division Opp 2-2-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 1-0-1 Opp .500+ Record 3-3-0 New York Giants

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

NEW YORK GIANTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-9-0 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-4-0 Home Games 5-4-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 2-3-0 When Favored 8-6-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 5-5-0 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 3-4-0 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

NEW YORK GIANTS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 4-2-1 All Totals (O-U-P) 4-3-0 OVER
On Road 2-1-0 At Home 2-1-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 8-7-1 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 4-4-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER
AFC  Playoff Odds

The Chargers are doing their best to lose the very winnable AFC West despite a significant talent advantage on paper.  San Diego lost in embarrassing fashion Monday night to the rival Chiefs who all of a sudden have won 4 games in a row.  The Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders are now all tied for the division lead at 4-3.  San Diego was the biggest loser in the league this week dropping a whopping 20.8 percentage points in the projected playoff standings.  While the Chargers still project as the favorite in the division, both Kansas City and Oakland made significant gains in this week’s projections.  Denver is the only division team out of the race.

A Buffalo win and a New England loss improbably keep the two teams tied atop the AFC East heading into Week 9 at 5-2.  The Bills were impressive in shutting out Washington, and they gained 10.1 percentage points in the projections as a result.  New England continues to be an overwhelming favorite for the playoffs, but the door remains open for the Bills to win the division.  New York actually lost 6.7 percentage points this week despite having a bye because of the gains made by other Wild Card contenders.  Miami continues to invent ways to lose ball games.

Pittsburgh beat the Patriots to become the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 93.5 percent.  The Steelers also pushed their likelihood of a division title to 67.4 percent.  Baltimore struggled to beat Arizona, but the 21-point comeback allowed the Ravens to remain steady in the projections.  Cincinnati is actually tied with Baltimore at 5-2 and gained 5 percentage points in the standings.  The Bengals are a nice story, but won’t be considered real contenders unless they can beat the Steelers and Ravens head to head later on in the year.  The Browns make the playoffs in only 1.7 percent of simulations.

Houston is the only team in the AFC South to have outscored its opposition.  The Texans are solid 87.9 percent favorites to win the division as Tennessee is the only real competition remaining.  The projection for the Titans remained virtually unchanged after an expected win against foundering Indianapolis.  Indy remains winless on the year and is the first team to reach 0.0 percent in playoff probability.  Jacksonville is down to just 1.0 percent with a record of 2-6.

AFC WEEK 8 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 8 WK 9 % DIFF WIN DIV
BUFFALO BILLS 43.2% 53.3% 10.1% 21.2%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 9.2% 19.0% 9.8% 14.7%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 33.4% 39.0% 5.6% 34.2%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 30.9% 35.8% 5.0% 7.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 89.6% 93.5% 3.9% 67.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 86.2% 88.8% 2.6% 87.9%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TENNESSEE TITANS 16.2% 16.1% -0.1% 11.3%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 1.4% 0.5% -0.9% 0.4%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 73.3% 72.3% -0.9% 25.4%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2.4% 1.0% -1.4% 0.9%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 3.4% 1.7% -1.8% 0.2%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 95.8% 91.9% -3.9% 70.4%
NEW YORK JETS 36.2% 29.5% -6.7% 8.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 78.4% 57.6% -20.8% 50.7%

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