December 10, 2016

Patriots/Colts Preview From Accuscore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 94% of simulations over the Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady is averaging 299 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 74 rushing yards and a 55% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 6% of simulations where Indianapolis Colts wins, Dan Orlovsky averages 1.65 TD passes vs 0.47 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.97 TDs to 0.94 interceptions. Joseph Addai averages 41 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing TDs when Indianapolis Colts wins and 26 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 64% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 97% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -21 — Over/Under line is 49.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 2-9-0 All Games 7-4-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 1-4-0 Home Games 3-2-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 2-8-0 When Favored 6-4-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 2-6-0 Non-Division Opp 4-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 2-4-0 Opp Under .500 2-0-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 8-8-1 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-3-1 Home Games 5-4-0 Indianapolis Colts
When Underdog 2-0-0 When Favored 8-6-0 Indianapolis Colts
Non-Division Opp 6-4-1 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 7-1-1 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 Indianapolis Colts

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 6-5-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 6-5-0 OVER
On Road 3-2-0 At Home 2-3-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 10-7-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 7-1-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER

AFC Playoff Picture

The Raiders have taken over the lead in the AFC West at 7-4 after winning 3 in a row.  They are 75.2 percent likely to win the division and currently hold a one game lead over the Broncos.  Tim Tebow has led Denver to wins in 4 of the last 5 games, making his team the biggest gainer in the projected standings this week.  The Broncos are 20.1 percent likely to win the division.  San Diego has fallen off a cliff losing six games in a row, and now, the Chargers only have a 4.6 percent chance at making the playoffs.  The Chiefs are going nowhere fast with Tyler Palko and are almost eliminated from the playoff chase.

Three AFC North teams are again projected as playoff teams this week.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both better than 96 percent likely to reach the postseason.  The Ravens, though, have the inside track at the division at 51.5 percent followed by the Steelers at 42.6 percent.  Cincinnati is the leader for the final Wild Card spot making the playoffs 57.5 percent of the time.  Cleveland has actually played some decent football of late, but the Browns reached 0.0 percent in playoff probability this week.

Houston is down to its third string quarterback, but still leads the AFC South by two games and is the overwhelming favorite to win the division.  The Texans did lose 5.2 percentage points in playoff probability this week, but they are still 89.6 percent likely to reach the postseason.  Tennessee still has a chance of catching the Texans, gaining 6.9 percentage points in this week’s projections.  Jacksonville fell to 0.0 percent probability after another loss.  Indianapolis has an 18.5 percent chance of finishing the season winless.

New England is getting closer to lock status for the playoffs at 99.6 percent probability.  The Jets survived a battle with division rival Buffalo to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.  New York is still in a precarious position, but reaches the playoffs in 21.6 percent of simulations.  Buffalo was effectively eliminated with the loss, losing 9.5 percentage points this week.  Miami came close to winning its fourth in a row; but instead, the Dolphins were eliminated completely from playoff contention according to AccuScore simulations.

AFC WEEK 12 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 12 WK 13 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 20.3% 29.7% 9.4% 20.1%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 49.0% 57.5% 8.5% 5.9%
TENNESSEE TITANS 16.3% 23.1% 6.9% 13.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 75.1% 78.9% 3.8% 75.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 92.9% 96.3% 3.4% 51.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 98.8% 99.6% 0.8% 99.4%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.9% 0.9% -0.1% 0.8%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 97.3% 96.9% -0.4% 42.6%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.0% -0.7% 0.0%
NEW YORK JETS 23.2% 21.6% -1.6% 0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 94.8% 89.6% -5.2% 87.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 10.5% 1.5% -9.0% 0.2%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 20.0% 4.6% -15.4% 3.9%

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