December 8, 2016

Patriots/Steelers Preview From AccuScore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the New England Patriots winning 49% of simulations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 32% of simulations and they go on to win 75% when they take care of the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging 297 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 287 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PIT +3 — Over/Under line is 50.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Pittsburgh Steelers ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 4-2-0 All Games 3-4-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 2-1-0 Home Games 2-1-0 No Edge
When Favored 4-2-0 When Underdog 0-2-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 2-1-0 Non-Division Opp 3-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 3-2-0 Opp .500+ Record 1-1-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Pittsburgh Steelers ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 12-7-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 7-3-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 3-2-0 Pittsburgh Steelers
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 6-6-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-5-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD Pittsburgh Steelers O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 4-2-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 4-3-0 OVER
On Road 2-1-0 At Home 1-2-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 10-9-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 5-5-0 OVER

AFC Playoff Odds

Houston made a massive leap in playoff probability this week gaining 20.7 percentage points.  The Texans benefitted in two ways: a blowout win over their closest competition in the Titans, and continued poor performances from both Indianapolis and Jacksonville.  Despite being just 4-3, Houston has an 85.2 percent chance of winning the AFC South.  Tennessee dropped 21 percentage points in playoff probability, the largest drop in the conference.

Baltimore shockingly lost to Jacksonville Monday night gaining just 146 total yards.  Such a poor outing against a bad team in the Jaguars led to the Ravens losing 15.1 percentage points in this week’s projections.  A real pattern has already developed this season with Baltimore playing well at home, and extremely poorly on the road.  Pittsburgh benefitted greatly from the Ravens misfortune becoming the division favorite again at 60.5 percent.  The Bengals continue to play well and made a significant jump of 8.1 percentage points up to 30.9 percent likelihood.

New York continued its revival comeback in a big way against San Diego to win for the second win in a row.  The Jets made the second biggest gain in the projections this week gaining 12.1 percentage points.  New England is still easily the favorite in the AFC and the East.  Buffalo was off on a bye and remained steady at 43.2 percent.

The Chargers were not negatively affected much by the loss in New York.  Despite playing very poorly in the second half, they were on the road and not favored outright anyways.  Oakland’s quarterbacks on the other hand threw six interceptions and showed that all might not be well without Jason Campbell going forward.  The Raiders lost a whopping 17.6 percentage points in playoff probability this week heading into their bye week.  Tim Tebow flashed some of his old magic to win in Miami, but the computer still doesn’t believe in the Broncos.  Denver is only making the playoffs in 0.8 percent of simulations.

AFC WEEK 7 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 7 WK 8 % DIFF WIN DIV
HOUSTON TEXANS 65.5% 86.2% 20.7% 85.2%
NEW YORK JETS 24.2% 36.2% 12.1% 7.5%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 22.7% 30.9% 8.1% 7.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 82.4% 89.6% 7.2% 60.5%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 3.4% 9.2% 5.7% 5.6%
BUFFALO BILLS 42.2% 43.2% 1.0% 10.4%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 1.4% 2.4% 1.0% 2.3%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 2.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.8%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 95.1% 95.8% 0.7% 82.1%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 1.2% 0.5% -0.6% 0.5%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 82.1% 78.4% -3.7% 71.5%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 88.3% 73.3% -15.1% 31.7%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 51.1% 33.4% -17.6% 22.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 37.3% 16.2% -21.0% 12.0%

Comments

  1. The AFC North teams will all benefit from the most favorable schedule in the nfl this year, facing the weak NFC west and AFC south divisions. The steelers’ wins have come against exceptionally weak opponents and look what Jax just did to the Ravens? The Pats are not a dominant team but they continue to take care of business and are only getting stronger.

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