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Monday Morning Leftovers

November 12, 2007 By 10 Comments

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

There was a lot of movement in the AFC playoff picture yesterday, with the results of three intra-conference games shuffling the deck:

* Pittsburgh’s comeback over Cleveland vaulted the Steelers to 2nd seed in the conference;

* Indy’s folly in San Diego dropped the Colts to 3rd;

* The Chargers take control of the West (and the 4th seed) as the only team with a record better than .500;

* Jacksonville’s road win in Tennessee gave the Jags this week’s 5th seed by virtue of a better conference record than the;

* Titans, who fell to the 6th seed with their home loss. A win would have brought Tennessee into a virtual tie with Indianapolis for the division lead (though the Colts currently have the head-to-head advantage over the Titans with one game left between the teams).

Most importantly, the action brought the idle Patriots even closer to claiming the 1st seed in the 2007 AFC playoffs. They now have a two-game lead over the Steelers (with a head-to-head matchup still to come) and a three-game lead over the Colts (counting the H2H advantage gained with last week’s huge win in Indy) with seven games to play.

We’ll take a little closer look at how the playoff picture is shaping up later this week.

When was the last time Peyton Manning played that bad, by the way? Excepting the fourth quarter last week, of course. I have to admit, though, that I buy in a little to the “Peyton has no weapons!” angle. That was a pretty awful crew he had running with him last night, and yet, thanks to San Diego’s dreadful offense, the Colts nearly pulled it out of the fire. But Adam’s (Not) Money anymore, I guess.

One thing about San Diego – I don’t care how well that defense is playing, I don’t care what amazing tricks Antonio Cromartie has left in his bag, I don’t care even if Ladanian Tomlinson gets cranked up for the home stretch. They are not going anywhere with that quarterback. He is just awful, and you can count on him and him alone to ensure that the Chargers somehow underachieve.

The Pats’ next opponent, the Buffalo Bills, pulled out a comeback of their own in what had to amount to a trap game in Miami. Did the Bills look to next Sunday night too soon? They got away with it, and now they can turn their attention fully to entertaining the Patriots. Look for the overly-confident J.P. Losman to put his foot in his mouth this week, if he hasn’t already. The Pats might need to put up a bulletin board just for him.

Filed Under: News

Niner Watch

November 11, 2007 By 4 Comments

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Last week we debuted “If The AFC Playoffs Began Today“, which will track the American conference pennant race over the next eight weeks (counting today).

Afterwards, our friend Ozzy suggested we also flip things upside down to see how to the Race to the Bottom is going.

This is of particular interest to Oz and others because during last April’s NFL Draft, the Patriots traded one of their first round picks (#28, which became lineman Joe Staley) for San Francisco’s fourth round pick (#110, which became Randy Moss) and the Niners first round pick in the 2008 draft.

At this point, it’s an understatement to say you’d be plenty happy with Staley for Moss even up, considering that Moss could end up getting MVP votes later this year. Naturally, at the time of the deal, the real plum was the Niners ’08 first rounder.

Opinion was split on where that pick would land. Some noted the Niners’ strong finish in ’06 and wondered whether, in the relatively weak NFC, the Pats would get much of an upgrade at all. Others were more skeptical, thinking San Francisco would wind up in the middle of the NFL pack at worst case scenario, and the Pats would easily move up into the Top 20.

Then Spygate happened, and the Pats lost their own ’08 first round pick in the melee. The Niners pick became even more significant to Pats fans, who thought it might be kind of funny if the punished Pats ended up with a top pick anyway. This was tempered a bit by San Francisco’s 2-0 start, but the Niners have gone on to drop six straight, and it looks like there’s at least a chance that Pats fans could end up livin’ the dream after all.

So we’ll follow it week to week, with our handy spreadsheet:

First, I should explain what we have here. This is a listing of the thirteen teams with the worst records in the NFL to date. They’re listed in order of how they would select if the NFL draft was held today.

The first few columns should be self explanatory. Games played, win and loss record, and winning percentage. The first draft tiebreaker and W/L percentage is SOS, or strength of schedule. Here you see the combined winning percentage of the team’s opponents to date. If teams are still tied there, we move on to winning percentage in division, and then in conference. The current percentages are listed.

The next one is a coin flip. I’m working on a column for that. Maybe winning percentage of coin flips to date?

The final column is the combined winning percentages of each team’s remaining opponents. This might help us see which teams have the hardest schedules the rest of the way, and as a result, the inside track on the top pick in next year’s draft.

So what does the spreadsheet tell us this week?

It’s looking pretty good for the Pats, as they would pick fourth if the draft was held this week. The Niners are one of four teams tied at 2-6, but they get the fourth slot because they sucked against an easier schedule.

Since we’re discussing sucking, I would be remiss were I not to mention the New York Jets, proud owners of a 1-8 record, and presently, the pick just ahead of the Patriots. A big part of living the dream here is the Patriots picking ahead of the Jets, for myriad reasons we have detailed here previously. So we need a little help at this point, and I wonder how much we’re going to get, since the Jets are still to face seven teams (including Pittsburgh, Dallas, Cleveland, Tennessee and the Patriots) with a combined winning percentage of .649. The Jets could live the dream of losing 15 friggin’ games, though they have a major test against the even shittier Dolphins coming up.

The Niners, on the other hand, have eight games against teams that are a combined .400. They still have games with the 0-8 Rams, the 2-6 Bengals, and two against the 3-5 Cardinals. When you’re in a Race to the Bottom, even one win might push you right out of the top (bottom) ten. This pick might look sort of mediocre before we’re finished, unless the Niners can dig down deep and find a way to quit on Mike Nolan. One thing that would help is divisional losses; the Niners are going nowhere fast with that smart .667 clip. Something has to give tomorrow night when San Francisco faces Seattle. How bad is the NFC West when the fourth worse team in football is winning two out of three against it?

Looking at the rest of the chart, the Raiders are a real threat to slide ahead of the Niners as they play out the string against a combined .563. Only the Jets and 3-5 Eagles have a harder schedule ahead of them.

We’ll take a look at this again once this week’s results have been recorded, so be sure to tune in.

Filed Under: News Tagged With:

The Sunday Links

November 11, 2007 By 2 Comments

logoby Scott Benson
[email protected]

The lull brought on by the Patriots’ bye week has put the local Fourth Estate in a reflective mood this morning, as it considers the incredible events of the past nine weeks.

Everybody’s lookin’ back. Well, maybe not everybody. A plucky few charge ahead, eyes on a perfect season for New England.

Let’s open the papers and see what’s up. By the way, is this not the most perfectly placed bye week in history?

Michael Felger leads Herald coverage this morning with his mid term grades, like he’s Craig Mustard or somebody. Professor Felger puts a gold star on everybody’s paper but Laurence Maroney’s, with running back as the only position to fall short of a 3.0. I’m not sure how the combined production of Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Maroney doesn’t factor in here. I would agree that Maroney has not emerged as a lead player, but this running back by committee is #8 in the league in rushing. That’s a ‘C’?

Why am I arguing about a fake football report card in this morning’s paper? I’m one step away from nit picking the comics. Damn you, you sneaky Felger. You’ve pulled me in!

A couple of other points. Felger’s opening says that the ongoing furor over Spygate, such as Don Shula’s well-publicized comments this week, is all Bill Belichick’s fault, for giving an opening to critics to fire away at the accomplishments of the team.

It’s Bill Belichick’s fault that the Patriots brazenly broke the rules. It’s his fault that they lost a first-round draft choice. It’s his fault that he cost himself a half-million bucks and his employer a quarter-million. These things were his responsibility and he was held accountable for them.

But how about we make Shula and the other Sygate snipers equally accountable, at least for the words that they say? Shula’s paranoia about his legacy, and the way that it manifests itself, isn’t Bill Belichick’ fault, no matter how much you happen to think he invited it. Shula’s problems belong to Shula, and the same goes for the rest of them.

Mike closes out the report card by noting that, as a coach, Belichick has “always been able to create windmills to tilt at, even when none existed.” I guess the people who have been telling me that Felger has been dismissing Belichick as a motivator on his radio show just heard it wrong. Every one of them.

Rightfully offended by Shula’s ad hominum, John Tomase fires back by crank calling Bob Kuechenberg again. You know, I think the ’72 Dolphins are softening.

More Spygate from the AP’s Dave Goldberg, who has Robert Kraft saying that adversity has brought the Patriots together.

In the Globe, Jim McCabe reaches way back for his litany of near-misses in NFL perfection. The ‘Akron Pros’ is one great team nickname, by the way. Mike Reiss is also along with his weekly league notes, where he finds that Massachusetts native (and defensive coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo has helped the Giants to a 6-2 mark.  

Like the Little River Band, Shalise Manza Young of the ProJo is reminiscin’. Robert Lee has more on Kevin Faulk, who says he got a helpful “coaching point” from Belichick after his winning touchdown last week. Was it something like “hold on to the ****ing ball”?

Elswehere in the six-state region, the Patriot Ledger’s Ron Hobson says that Joe Montana and Tom Brady are 1 and 1.A. when it comes to NFL quarterbacks. Douglas Flynn of the MWDN sees the Pats running the table from here. In the Courant, David Heuschkel looks at the appeal of Randy Moss, and here comes Bob Pruett again with the Randy love. Moss has made Pruett a media darling. His phone must ring non-stop.

Have a good Sunday.  I’ll stop by later today with some bye-week reflections of my own.

Filed Under: Media

College Scout

November 10, 2007 By Leave a Comment

logoby Greg Doyle
[email protected]

Last week we took a look around the country at games that would include a few Juniors who could end up in the next NFL draft. Let’s do that again this week with a few more Juniors to watch.

Michigan CB Morgan Trent (#14): Trent has really emerged as a player this year and has been instrumental in leading the Wolverines defense back from its abysmal start to the season. Trent will be on ESPN today at Noon visiting Wisconsin with the rest of Michigan. Originally a wide receiver when he came to Michigan, he was quickly switched to corner. He has excellent there and has nice height and enough size to hold up in the NFL. He is not spectacular in any area, but just a solid all-around player. He does have good speed and never seems to get badly burned on a play this season after occasionally letting it happen last season. Has been praised as one of the more improved players on Michigan from last season. Good prospect that the Patriots would be interested in, but probably shouldn’t come out and stay in school next year to build on the marked improvement he has shown this year.

Wisconsin CB Jack Ikegwuonu (#6): Over on the other side of the same field as Trent will be on this afternoon is this Wisconsin All-American cornerback. A big, sturdy corner who was 1st Team All-Big 10 as a Sophomore, Ikegwuonu’s stats are down a bit this year as a junior. Partly that is due to teams just not throwing in his direction. He has perfect NFL corner size at 6’1″ 201.A solid tackler and good in coverage, he had 2 Interceptions last year but has none this year. Had 3 as a part-time player as a Freshman. If he comes out this year, should be a first day pick and has a chance to move as high as the first round with a good combine. The Patriots will certaintly be interested.

Georgia DT Jeff Owens (#95): Perfect 3-4 lineman type for the Patriots from the same school that produced Richard Seymour. Owens will be highlighted on CBS this afternoon at 3:30 facing off against Auburn. He is a big strong and stout lineman who could certainly 2-gap for the Patriots on the end. In his second year as a starter. Doesn’t have any sacks this year and had only one last year. More of a run-stuffer now, but has excellent physical talent so his pass rush ability could improve in the NFL. Has the size and strength, as well as functional quickness, to do it as he had 12 quarterback hurries last year and has 13 more this season. May come out and end up being a steal and long-time starter for the team that gets him.

Boston College DT Ron Brace (#60): Brace was pretty unknown coming into this season, but has been a difference maker anchoring the middle of the Boston College defense. A massive 340 lb. nose tackle, his quickness and ability to make plays has surprised. Seemingly college linemen can’t block him and you can regularly see him blow up offenses or destroy a play watching BC play. They’ll be on tonight versus Maryland at 8:00 on ABC. Had a decent year his first year as a starter last year as a sophomore, but really has improved by leaps and bounds this year. Only has 17 sacks, but its his ability to tie up linemen in the middle and destroy a play that has been his main effectiveness. At his size, would seem to fit perfectly as a nosetackle in the Patriots 3-4 system. You have to be somewhat concerned about his conditioning and ability to stay healthy. Also is somewhat short with short arms at 6’1″. Has shown improved pass-rush ability this year and has 2.5 sacks. Probably will stay in another year as he is not yet ready to be a definite draft pick or a high pick. Another strong year could solidify him as an NFL draft prospect. Originally from Springfield, MA.

Virginia OLB Clint Sintim (#51): This could be a rare find for the Patriots…..a 6’3″ 256 lb. defensive player who already plays linebacker and does not have to be converted from defensive end. You can watch Sintim this evening on ESPN2 at 7:15 PM as he faces off against Miami. Sintim is a play-making outside ‘backer who has been troubled by shoulder injuries, but when healthy has shown himself to be a stout run-defender and able to rush the passer. This season he has stayed healthy and had a very good year. Plays for his head coach Al Groh, who of course coached for many years with Bill Belichick and runs a similar defense to him. So Sintim should fit right in here. He hasn’t been used in coverage much, if at all, so that is a negative. He could come out and would be probably a mid-round pick at this point. Could come back to college and improve that status as well. Would be a good pick as a Patriots draftee.

Fresno State TE Bear Pascoe (#85): A big 6’5″ 260 lb tight end for Fresno State who can run, catch and block. He’ll be on ESPN2 tonight at 11:00 facing off against undefeated Hawaii. Pascoe seems to be the type of tight end the Patriots like, big and versatile. And he plays for Belichick close friend Pat Hill. This year, Pascoe leads Fresno with 37 catches for 462 yards and 4 touchdowns in 9 games. He could declare and be a first-day draftee as a tight end and someone the Patriots might like to groom given their extensive use of tight ends.

Filed Under: The Draft

Wide Receiver Musical Chairs

November 9, 2007 By 2 Comments

by Dan Snapp
[email protected]

During the offseason, when the Patriots were snatching up wide receivers like they were going out of style, Bill Belichick was often asked of Troy Brown’s future. Without pause, the coach continually told us, “Troy has a role on this team.” Soon, we’ll find out what that role is.

The Patriots this week released tight end Marcellus Rivers and safety Ray Ventrone, clearing spots for receiver Chad Jackson and cornerback Eddie Jackson, both fresh off the PUP list. They also started the clock on Brown, giving them three weeks to make the call on the venerable vet.

The Pats have rarely enjoyed such a bounty of riches at one position, and even when they did, it was quickly pared down by attrition. In their 2003 championship year, for instance, Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens and David Patten all missed time with injuries.

This year, with six healthy receivers at the break, the Pats could be facing a game of musical chairs. Who’s going to be left standing when the music stops?

The Patriots likely have each receiver learn every position, but there are natural spots for each: Brown and Wes Welker at slot; Randy Moss, Chad Jackson and Kelley Washington at end; and Donte’ Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney at flanker.

The logjam at end could signal Washington’s vulnerability, but he also offers a special teams presence Gaffney lacks. Gaffney, though, is a young, cheap, productive receiver who shined brightest in the biggest games last year.

Washington is without a reception this season – partially a by-product of playing behind Moss. Given that production, it’s unlikely the Patriots pick up the $4M option bonus he’s due before next season.

Injuries have prevented Chad Jackson from delivering on the promise of his lofty draft status. But Jackson is signed through 2009 on his relatively cheap rookie deal. Stallworth and Washington are technically signed long-term, but both have upcoming option bonuses that leave their 2008 status in limbo.

The severity of Brown’s injury could render the whole discussion moot. Can he be the same productive player as last year, when he snagged 43 catches at age 35? It would be a shame if, after Brown’s long, glorious career here, his last moment as a Patriot was to be put on IR.

Maybe Belichick will throw us all for a loop, and simply play seven receivers. He’s done stranger things.

Add your comments and be well-received.

Filed Under: News

Outside Foxborough – Checking In With The Ex-Pats

November 8, 2007 By 9 Comments

fo.jpgBy Bill Barnwell
[email protected]

Last year, we did a column on how ex-Patriots from the Belicheck era were doing in their travels around the NFL. It’s a year later and more Patriots have departed, so let’s repeat the installment — maybe this year, Willie McGinest will be able to shed the HTML code!

Joe Andruzzi, G, FA

Andruzzi, sadly, was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in May, and is currently undergoing chemotherapy at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

Tom Ashworth, OL, SEA

Ashworth is the seventh lineman for a Seahawks offensive line that’s never looked the same since the departure of Steve Hutchison and the overuse of Shaun Alexander.

Tully Banta-Cain, OLB, SF

The pass rusher never seemed to get the hang of the Patriots scheme, and as a 49ers outside linebacker, he’s got 16 tackles and 1.5 sacks in eight games.

Monty Beisel, LB, ARI

Beisel’s a reserve linebacker for the Cardinals now; in eight games, he’s got 30 tackles and no sacks. He’s collecting years on his pension.

Deion Branch, WR, SEA

Remember when signing Branch seemed like a good idea? So, maybe my first column for then-BSMW didn’t turn out so accurately, but Branch has spent most of this season injured and has 22 catches for 343 yards in five games. Not exactly the production the Seahawks were looking for when they gave up a first-round pick for Branch.

Reche Caldwell, WR, WAS

Caldwell caught on with the Redskins following his release, but he’s only played one game, and went without a catch.

Matt Chatham, LB, NYJ

The linebacker who Peter King says started off the Belichick-Mangini feud spent the first seven weeks of the season on the PUP list with a foot injury. He’s a special teams player, but with Jonathan Vilma’s injury, Chatham becomes the primary reserve inside linebacker.

Andre’ Davis, WR, HOU

Davis has finally got some playing time by moving to Houston, where he’s emerged as arguably the team’s top wideout with Andre Johnson’s injury. His 23 catches for 441 yards have him 36th in the league in both DPAR and DVOA.

Tim Dwight, WR, OAK

Dwight had his first and only catch of the season on Sunday against Houston, a 28-yard touchdown. You weren’t watching.

David Givens, WR, TEN

After tearing his ACL midway through the 2006 season, Givens was expected to return in time for the 2007 campaign, but he was placed on the PUP list to start the season, and as Givens is yet to be taken off the list at the time of writing, it looks like he’ll go on IR and miss the whole season. That bodes very poorly for Givens’ future.

Terry Glenn, WR, DAL

Glenn’s career may very well be over following a series of knee complaints that led to two microfracture surgeries before the season. There’s a possibility he might return before the end of the season, but even if he does, the track record for aging wide receivers with knee injuries isn’t particularly good.

Daniel Graham, TE, DEN

On the receiving side, Graham has been nothing special, catching 16 passes for 149 yards. As a blocker, it’s harder to isolate his performance, but the Broncos rush offense has gone from being 20th last year to 18th this year (which also may have something to do with Matt Lepsis returning), so if there has been an effect, it hasn’t been great.

Damon Huard, QB, KC

The former backup has spent most of the season avoiding getting yanked; he ranked 31st in the league in DVOA and 32nd in DPAR, so there’s little pointing in his favor. Losing Larry Johnson will do him no favors.

Bethel Johnson, WR, FA

Johnson was waived by the Texans in the offseason, and his career appears to be over.

Dan Klecko, DL/LB, IND

Klecko is a spare part on the Colts defense, making four tackles on the campaign, while occasionally featuring in offensive sets.

Ty Law, CB, KC

Law’s been the weak point of an otherwise-superb Kansas City pass defense. Patrick Surtain lines up against #1 receivers for Kansas City, and their defensive DVOA against those wideouts is fifth in the league. Law lines up against #2 receivers; their DVOA against those receivers is 23rd.

Willie McGinest, LB, CLE

McGinest missed the first three games of the season with an injury, and since his return, he’s played a relatively limited role on the outside, mustering 11 tackles in five games. The decision to let him go seems relatively justified in hindsight.

Josh Miller, P, FA

The likable former punter caught on for a short stint with the Titans this year while Craig Hentrich was hurt. He’s waiting for a spot to open up, but then again, aren’t we all?

Lawyer Milloy, S, ATL

Speaking of justified decisions…even Tom Jackson knows by now that Milloy was on the decline when he left New England. He’s currently providing veteran leadership for a team that appears to have nothing in the way of veteran leadership.

David Patten, WR, NO

Patten picked up with the Saints in the offseason and has served as their slot receiver with some success, catching 24 passes for 422 yards and a 19.8% DVOA, leaving him sixteenth in the league.

Tyrone Poole, CB, FA

Poole was also cut by the Texans in the offseason and his career is probably done.

Hank Poteat, CB, NYJ

I gave Poteat the nickname of “Craigslist” after all the times he had to pack up and head to and from Foxborough for short stints with the Patriots. He actually had the stability of a one-year deal this year, but he’s been part of a Jets pass defense which has been astoundingly stinky this year. In his defense, he might be the best cornerback they have, but that’s faint praise.

Todd Sauerbrun, P, DEN

The man hunting for Gramaticas is having an entirely average year for the Broncos when you strip out the advantage he gets for punting in the thin air of Denver.

Greg Spires, DE, TB

Spires missed this week’s game against the Cardinals after starting the first eight games of the season for the Buccaneers at defensive end, across from rookie Gaines Adams. Spires has 24 tackles and a sack in the Buccaneers’ Tampa-2 defense, currently ranked 13th in the league.

Duane Starks, CB, FA

Starks was on the Raiders roster to start the season, but when JaMarcus Russell was signed, Starks was the one let go.

Vinny Testaverde, QB, CAR

If you’d picked a man on last year’s roster who would’ve been least likely to put up a performance of any relevance in 2007, Testaverde would have been the almost-universal pick. Of course, Testaverde managed to earn a start for the Panthers, although tendonitis (he’s old!) may keep him out for a while. Testaverde still has my admiration, though.

Keith Traylor, DT, MIA

Traylor’s contributed little to a Dolphins rush defense that has collapsed to 31st in the league. He’s just about done.

Adam Vinatieri, K, IND

That was Vinatieri you saw missing a field goal in the first quarter last week. According to our metrics for both scoring kicking as well as kickoffs, Stephen Gostkowski outpaces Vinateri in both. Oh, and that’s at about a quarter of the price.

Ted Washington, DT, CLE

Washington occupies the middle for a Cleveland defense that’s 18th in the league against the run. Sure, they may be 31st in the league against the pass, but realistically, Washington’s not on the field for most of those snaps, nor is it his job to rus…engag…engulf the passer.

Jermaine Wiggins, TE, FA

Wiggins was cut by the Jaguars in training camp, and is yet to catch on with another team despite catching 46 passes last season.

Damien Woody, OL, DET

When we last left Woody, he was impregnating women and on IR. This year, he’s played five games, starting three, and is a relatively high-paid bust on a relatively overrated team.

Filed Under: Columns Tagged With:

DirecTV, the Omniscient

November 7, 2007 By 3 Comments

logoby Dan Snapp
[email protected]

Running up the score is not without its shortcomings.

For me, it’s the ongoing battle I’ve waged with DirecTV. For a Patriots fan living outside of New England, you have to plan for how you’re going to watch your team. The NFL Ticket is a godsend in that regard, making the world all the more miniscule.  

This year, though, two problems emerged:

1. The Pats are great; and
2. The Pats are too great.

Number one meant networks televising the games they normally wouldn’t (Pats/Phins in the Midwest? Really?). Number two meant them cutting away from the game after the Pats had it well in hand. The by-product then is a handful of games half-recorded on CBS and half-recorded (minus a few minutes always) on the NFL Ticket.

User error plays a role as well, such as forgetting to anticipate the game going over its TV grid allotment. This happened again Sunday. As the Patriots were in the early stages of their masterful fourth-quarter comeback, DirecTV was telling me I was watching “60 Minutes.”

And so I was. How prescient of them to notice.

Has it always been this way? Maybe I’ve been oblivious to it. Maybe when the Patriots were hanging 52 on the Redskins, DirecTV was  telling me, “This one’s over. How about taking the kids to the park?” or “What more can they do? The lawn still needs mowing.”

Or maybe that was my wife, and me equally oblivious.

But DirecTV had it right. Sixty minutes. There’s your response to anyone who complains about running up the score: 60 minutes.

The Patriots prepare for every conceivable scenario under the sun. This is why the term “situational football” is a buzzword only in New England.  It’s why Patriots fans aren’t surprised (unlike the flabbergasted announcers) when the team takes an intentional safety, direct snaps to Kevin Faulk, or fakes a field goal.

It’s why Tom Brady is still out on the field until midway through the fourth quarter of a blowout.

Sixty minutes. The Patriots needed nearly every one. Think that extra work against Washington, against Miami, and against Dallas didn’t help? Is it so inconceivable that those instances of “situational football” against real opposition played a part in prepping the team for that crucial quarter against Indy?

The last 10 minutes of the game, you could tell Indy was shot. The Pats front seven was pushing the pocket on every play. In that same span, the Colts only got to Tom Brady once, just after he released the ball to Moss on a slant. After being the team left chasing and panting back in January, the Pats on Sunday were ready for a full game.

If you get the opportunity, treat yourself by watching the last two defensive series again. There were heroes aplenty: Richard Seymour, whom the Colts started doubling after he wrapped up Joseph Addai the first few plays; Junior Seau, who shadowed Addai and also applied great middle pressure on Manning’s first fumble; Jarvis Green, who kept blowing through both Rien Diem and Jeff Saturday; and Rosevelt Colvin, who destroyed left tackle Charlie Johnson on every play, and later collected the Manning muff to effectively end it.

Welk, Don’t Run

Back in the 2001 season, we saw the product of Charlie Weis’s fertile mind with the Patriots using toss sweeps and wide receiver screens as bread-and-butter plays. Weis explained that they viewed the WR screens as extensions of the running game.

“If we get five or six yards,” Weis said then, “We’ll take it.”

The Patriots acquisition of Wes Welker came as no surprise to any who saw him torch New England the last couple of seasons. But for all who immediately threw out the Brandon Stokley or Wayne Chrebet comparisons (and why is it that a white slot receiver is deemed comparable only to another white slot receiver?), a better match would be Patriots Troy Brown and Deion Branch.

Welker has shone on those screen plays, either as the recipient himself or as blocker for Donte’ Stallworth, but he’s also become the designated safety valve when the running game breaks down. He proved it yet again on the final third down catch Sunday to clinch the game.

It’s his quickness that begs the comparison to Branch. In successive years, the Patriots used second-round picks on the player who posted the best time in the shuttle run at the Indianapolis Combine – Deion Branch in 2002 ( 3.76 seconds) and Bethel Johnson (3.72 seconds) in 2003. While the careers of the two took divergent paths, it still sheds light on how the Patriots value receivers.

Welker, too, flourished in the quickness drills. But his straight-line speed brought down his stock. Five-foot-nine receivers who run the 40 in 4.6 seconds go undrafted, as Welker did in 2004.

So Welker was a Patriots-type receiver way back in 2004. They just didn’t know it yet.

Filed Under: Columns

If the AFC Playoffs Began Today

November 7, 2007 By 10 Comments

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

This Sunday, we’ll enter week ten of the NFL’s seventeen week schedule, and it seems like a good time to start looking at how the AFC playoff picture is shaping up.

I know, I know, the playoffs don’t begin today, and this point in the season, a good bit of the following could still turn on a dime this coming Sunday. That I’ll grant you. Still, we hope this new weekly feature will – at the very least – be here to provide you with a quick update on where the teams seem to be landing as we roll on towards January.

We’ll also offer a quick snapshot of which games in the coming weekend could have the most impact on next week’s seedings.

Let’s get started. Hey, look at this – pretty clean for our first week. Only a couple of tiebreakers needed to make the top six.

The Six Seeds As We Speak

1st seed – AFCE division leader New England Patriots (9-0). Last Sunday’s gutty comeback win over the reigning champion Colts gives the Pats undisputed possession of the AFC’s first seed this week. Little known fact – prior to Sunday, the Colts held this spot by virtue of the 4th tiebreaker; strength of victory.

2nd seed – AFCS division leader Indianapolis Colts (7-1). The Colts now trail the Pats by what amounts to two games. The good news for Indy is that they hold the same advantage over 6-2 Tennessee (who they presently have a head-to-head advantage over) for the South division lead. Considering the first 51 minutes of play last Sunday, I really don’t think they have much to worry about there.

3rd seed – AFCN division leader Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2). Let me tell you something. The Patriots are going to kill the Steelers dead in a few weeks. Never forget which team’s players were among the first to jump on the coattails of Spygate. Keep your head up, Hines Ward. And your teammates shouldn’t get too comfortable in this spot.

4th seed – AFCW division leader Kansas City Chiefs (4-4). The Chiefs have only the 7th best record in the conference but get the 4th seed this week as the division leader with the fourth best record. Great division they have there – all four teams lost on Sunday. Still, please let them win the West so that the Chirping Chargers, bastions of class, end up on the outside looking in. One problem: superback Larry Johnson could be out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury suffered in the loss to Green Bay, perhaps putting the Chiefs’ playoff hopes on life support. I hear a Priest has been summoned.

5th seed (First Wild Card) – AFCS Tennessee Titans (6-2). I simply do not understand the Titans. How are they 6-2? I thought they stunk. You need to stay on top of the NFL, folks. Things change. If the playoffs started today, the Titans would visit the Chiefs in KC, and if Wild Card Weekend held to form (see below), they would be the likely suspects to visit Foxboro the following week.

6th seed (Second Wild Card) – AFCS Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3). The Jags are teetering on the edge after getting hammered by the Saints last weekend. They’re a heartbeat away from playing Matt Jones at quarterback. Speaking of Spygate piling on, there’s Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio. Which means we’ll particularly enjoy their fall from the playoff picture in a few weeks. Jax gets the nod over 5-3 Cleveland this week due to a one-game advantage in conference record. If the playoffs started today, they’d be heading to Pittsburgh, a game where you could rightfully hate both teams.

Waiting to Pounce

7th contender – AFCN Cleveland Browns (5-3). The Browns just won three straight for the first time in, I don’t know, a bazillion years. Good on them, I say. Plus, we love Romeo Crennel. We love that Derek Anderson has frozen Brady Quinn on the bench. I will not rest until My Browns are seeded third in these playoffs.

Hoping For A Break

8th contender – AFCW San Diego Chargers (4-4). Nice effort last week, guys. The Chargers miss out on an undeserved fourth spot because THEY ALSO GOT POUNDED BY THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. I sure hope they don’t get in the playoffs, because if they played the Patriots 10 times, they’d beat them 9, right LT? I am doing everything I can to keep from laughing right now.

9th contender – AFCE Buffalo Bills (4-4). I know I’m supposed to be all offended by Two Bills Drive and all that garbage, but I’m pulling for these guys like they’re the Cleveland Browns. The sound you’re hearing is my heart breaking at the prospects of their head-to-head matchup with Cleveland on December 16th. The Bills sit behind San Diego – for now – by virtue of an only slightly inferior conference record. Keep plugging, Bills (though not at the Patriots’ expense a week from this Sunday).

10th contender – AFCN Baltimore Ravens (4-4). They’re a sparkling 1-4 in the AFC. And that is probably the last time I’ll have to write anything about the Ravens for the rest of this column’s run.

Games of the Week

6th seed Jacksonville at 5th seed Tennessee – Two words: Playoff Atmosphere! The Titans have won 4 of their last 5 and they’re at home against a team coming off its worst defensive performance ever.

7th contender Cleveland at 3rd seed Pittsburgh – Between these two games, not a bad slate for a Pats bye-week, huh? The Steelers hammered the Browns in week one, so Cleveland will try to neuter Pitt’s current head to head advantage (and division tiebreaker, which the Steelers also hold) with a road win. That would bring the common opponents tiebreaker into play – I hate that one. It’s a lot of work to figure out. Let’s see what happens this Sunday before I go to that sort of trouble (I’m not discouraging you from doing it for me, though).

2nd seed Indianapolis at 8th contender San Diego – The Chargers try to pump the home crowd noise back through their own PA, but end up being embarrassed when it amplifies a bunch of people complaining about Norv Turner. Colts romp.

Denver at 4th seed Kansas City – Denver has the worst rush defense in the league, which is exactly what the Chiefs need, exactly when they need it.

Miami at 9th contender Buffalo – Who would the plucky Bills rather play than the winless Miami Dolphins, right here, right now?

Cincinnati at 10th contender Baltimore – This is not a prime time game, so don’t expect the kind of frenzied effort you saw from the Ravens last Monday night. You know how they get up for those things. Lucky for them, they draw the Bengals at home, not exactly the most exacting test. I’m sure Ray Lewis will proclaim it as a defining win, though.

That’s it for this week – next time, we’ll try to expand this and get more into the head-to-head advantages and so on. We may even try a chart! Your suggestions are, of course, welcome.

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Inside Gillette

November 6, 2007 By 4 Comments

logoby Christopher Price
[email protected]

The move is a simple one, really: Extend your elbows outward so your arms are at a 90-degree angle from the rest of your body. Put your hands back to back with your palms facing outward. Then, push your hands apart quickly.

For Randy Moss, it’s a touchdown celebration that signifies separation from a defensive back. But the move is much more than that — it’s a distinct shot at those who suggested the 30-year-old wide receiver was over the hill entering this season and was now unable to get the sort of separation from opposing defenders that had made him a world class wide receiver in the past. How’s that workin’ out for you?

It’s a move opposing coaches are now seeing with greater frequency, much to their chagrin.

“We didn’t have an answer for Randy Moss today,” said Indianapolis Head Coach Tony Dungy after Sunday’s game where Moss had nine catches for 145 yards and a touchdown in the 24-20 win over the Colts.

And while his touchdowns have become signature events punctuated by the separation shuffle, his coaches and teammates are becoming accustomed to it all. Even his impressive one-handed grab over the middle against Indianapolis — a pass that few receivers in the history of the Patriots’ franchise could have made — wasn’t a shocker for New England Head Coach Bill Belichick.

“I can tell you, though, standing out here at practice, anybody will tell you that’s not the first one,” Belichick said of the grab. “It’s not the 10th one. In fact, you saw it against — who was it there, Dallas or Miami or somebody? — in the end zone, where he just…

“Honestly, he does that on a pretty regular basis.”

The on-field numbers are staggering (56 catches, 924 yards, 12 touchdowns), but the impact stretched far beyond what he can do when he has the ball. He’s a persistent threat, a unique player who demands constant attention whenever he’s on the field. As a result, other wide receivers are benefiting — Wes Welker is on pace to shatter career-bests in receptions, yards and touchdowns, while fellow wideout Donte Stallworth and tight end Ben Watson aren’t far off pace to set personal bests of their own.

“You’ve got to pick your poison,” said Cleveland Head Coach Romeo Crennel of the New England passing game.

As for the whole “Moss won’t work in a Belichick system” argument, well, just ask his teammates how that’s going. In June, after spending just over a month with his new team, he accompanied them to the funeral of former Patriots defensive lineman Marquise Hill. On other teams, a star of such magnitude would get an extra locker to store more stuff. In Foxborough, he gets the same treatment as everyone else, storing his gear in the same space that practice squad wide receiver C.J. Jones gets.

Just as Moss continues to put separation between him and defensive backs, it’s appeared he’s put plenty of distance between his old rep as a franchise killer.

“I think everything that has been written and said about him is probably the complete opposite of what we’ve experienced,” said Brady of Moss. “He’s a great teammate, a great player. He’s very coachable. He’s selfless. He’s a great worker. He leads by example. He has a bunch of great qualities.”

STAT OF THE WEEK

32. Of the 602 total plays from scrimmage through nine games, the Patriots’ offense has registered just 32 negative plays, excluding kneeldowns.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“We’re 9-0 and it doesn’t really matter. What matters to us is January. Our goal is to win the AFC East and be in the best position we can be in going into the playoffs.” — Quarterback Tom Brady after Sunday’s game.

Christopher Price is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the Patriots since 2001 for Boston Metro. He’s served a contributor to ESPN.com, SI.com, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post and The Miami Herald. He’s written “The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower,” and can be reached at [email protected].

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One Question…..

November 5, 2007 By 4 Comments

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

What in God’s name is this lunacy about the Colts showing everyone yesterday that the Pats can be beaten? It’s all I’m hearing this afternoon.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the world champs BLOW A TEN POINT LEAD AT HOME IN THE FINAL NINE MINUTES AND LOSE?

Just how is that helpful to anyone?

Meanwhile, I thought this little tidbit from John Tomase this afternoon was quite charming:

WILD BILL: There may not be a more enjoyable experience than sitting in front of Colts general manager Bill Polian during a game. Pats fans love to hate him because of his long-standing feud with Pay-TREE-oughts head coach Bill Belichick, but they’d love his feistiness if he were running the Pats. Polian is a non-stop series of expletives, pounded fists (on tabletops, not people), and groans during a game, and he’s into every last stinking play. He was particularly pumped when Joseph Addai scored a 73-yard touchdown just before halftime. It has to be experienced to be truly appreciated.

A nasty, vengeful drunk (and chronic Super Bowl loser) spilling Chivas and expletives all day is an “enjoyable experience”, but Bill Belichick is ’evil’. For crissakes. 

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As Seen and Heard Yesterday

November 5, 2007 By 5 Comments

As we recover from the (Regular Season) “Game of the Century” here is a look back at what some of the national media types were saying yesterday afternoon:

Quotes and excerpts from CBS’ The NFL Today pregame show:

On officiating crew calling New England-Indianapolis game:

Charlie Casserly: [They’ve called] only four defensive pass interference penalties this year. What’s that mean? That favors the passing attacks from both teams. The next stat which is interesting is they’ve called three offensive pass interference calls this year. That’s high amongst the league. It’s above average. Where does that fit? Randy Moss. What’s one of his favorite techniques? The Push off…I’d watch what happens with Moss today when he pushes off, whether they call it or not. The last stat, they (this crew) lead the league in calling roughing the passer. If I’m a defensive player, and I’m going to hit a quarterback today, I’d better be real careful. If it’s close I’m going to get called.

Dan Marino with Tom Brady:

Brady on teammate Randy Moss: It’s funny. Everything that’s been said or written about Randy is the exact opposite of what he is. You know, everyone says he’s this. He’s that. He comes in and you’re like, he’s great. He’s a great player. That’s what is most important.

Brady on running up score controversy that swirls around his team: We always respect our opponents. We always try to say the right thing, do the right thing and then it always comes back the other way like, I think people treat us like we’ve been a bunch of jerks…I’m sitting here saying, you know, we’re just trying to do the best we can do. Imagine me as an offensive player saying, that defense is kicking our butt, just ease off a little bit let them complete a few passes. That’s ridiculous.

Marino on Brady: It’s great being Tom Brady right now. All the wins but now he’s got all the toys with those receivers…Tom Brady right now is in quarterback heaven in New England with this offense.

CBS Staff Predictions:

Boomer: They’re (New England) not going to be derailed. They’re going to win 41-27. They’re not only going to win, they’re going to win the rest. And they’re going to the Super Bowl.

Marino: New England: 35-24

Cowher: New England: 31-20

Sharpe: Indianapolis: 38-31

From ESPN’s Sunday NFL Countdown:

Patriots at Colts: Which team has the mental edge?

Tom Jackson: “It is hard to believe that the Colts have an advantage when they walk in as almost a touchdown underdog in their own building. But I think that might be the edge. They (Colts) are used to being in this position when they play this football team. Mentally, they understand and have no illusion about who is on the other side of the football field. A lot of talk about respect and admiration, if the Patriots could beat you 60-0 today, that would happen.”

Mike Ditka: “(Coach Tony) Dungy and (quarterback Peyton) Manning have the mental edge. I’ll tell you why. This is not their first rodeo. They’ve been there before, they’ve done it. They’ve been the underdog to these guys last three times they played them and they beat them. And they know what it takes to beat them. I don’t care if they have their whole contingent or not, this is a very solid football team and I really believe in the bottom of my heart, somewhere along the way, it is going to come down to good versus evil.”

Chris Berman: “They both are 15-0. I want to see which defense gets an edge today. That might be the difference.”

Bill Parcells: “I don’t think either team has an edge. I don’t think last year’s game means anything or the fact that the Colts were Super Bowl Champs, or the Patriots past success against the Colts. This is 2007. This is a different deal. There are different characters on both teams. When this game is over – everybody thinks they may play again, I don’t think that’ll happen – the team that wins it will then definitely have an edge because they’ll know they can beat their opponent while the loser will not know that they can win. I think that’ll be a big psychological edge for the team that wins it.”

Coaches Ditka and Parcells on how to stop Tom Brady

Ditka: “The first thing you have to do is you must get Brady out of his comfort zone. I will play, basically, a 3-3-5. Not only the three would come every time, sometimes four. But I’ll have eight in coverage. I’ll play three corners and I’ll man up underneath. I’ll man up with those three receivers. You must disrupt those receivers coming off the ball. That’s the only thing Brady has a problem, because he has a great ability to pump one way and deliver the ball the other way. If those receivers are bumped and knocked off the ball where they are supposed to be, you’ve got a chance.”

Parcells: “I think a 3-3-5 might be restrictive to Dwight Freeney, their best pressure player, unless he becomes one of those rushers. If he does, he’ll be moving around like Mike (Ditka) said. I don’t think the Patriots will have too much trouble identifying that guy because the Colts are basically a four-man line and the players are used at looking at the numbers. But they can use (safety Bob) Sanders as an extra linebacker rather than one of the four defensive backs. If he becomes the fifth guy in a nickel situation, that five underneath can cause some protection change-ups for New England.”

Brady or Manning: Who’s under more pressure today?

Ditka: “I think it is Manning. He is a consummate professional. He puts the pressure on himself. He’s been in this position. He understands what a victory today would mean.”

Emmitt Smith: “Tom Brady. Mr. Kraft (New England owner) went out and spent some money in the free agency market to bring in Wes Welker, Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, and also put some guys on that defensive side of the ball. He spent some money. It is up to Tom Brady right now to take care of that money. The only way to take care of that money is to win this game.”

Jackson: “It is Tom Brady because of style of play. When you ask what they ask of him in terms of throwing the football and doing it as much as he does, he has to have a good game. If I’m the Colts, I’m trying to hold him to a normal football game – three touchdowns instead of six, 300 yards instead of 450. If he plays a normal football game, we have a chance to win the game.”

Keyshawn Johnson: “I don’t thing it is either one of them. I think it is defensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts. I know that’s not the question, but it is Ron Meeks, the defensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts. He has to stop Tom Brady. Every coach in America who is a coordinator wants to be a head coach. This is the type of game where stars are born. If you look at coach Dungy’s track record, a lot of his assistants have become head coaches. If he (Meeks) does his job today, he’ll have an opportunity to jump up to the top of that rank.”

Parcells’ on who’ll be under more pressure from the opposing defenses in the match-up: “Neither one of these two guys helps you beat them. They don’t take sacks. They don’t throw interceptions. They both make big explosive plays in the passing game, and the other thing is their defense gets turnovers for them. Looking at it, the biggest difference I can find is that the Patriots seem to rush the quarterback better than the Colts. So I think, literally, Peyton Manning will be under more pressure than Tom Brady.”

From the FOX NFL Sunday Pregame Show:

Analyst Howie Long on today’s New England-Indianapolis match-up from a defensive perspective: “This Indianapolis team features the fastest defense I have ever seen. Period. And it starts with Bob Sanders. Defensively, both of these teams are different. New England runs complex schemes and that’s what has given Peyton problems in the past.”

Analyst Jimmy Johnson adds: “In the dome, on artificial surface, I give the edge to Indy. But, for all seasons, on grass, outdoors and in cold weather, I like New England.”

Johnson on accusations that New England has been running up the score on recent victims: “Maybe it’s my dark side talking here, but I’d much rather see 52 to nothing games that feature acrobatic catches and dominant performances than a 28-7 game in which one team is taking a knee and running the clock out.”

Long adds: “If you are among those who, after the Spygate scandal, questioned the validity of their championships, questioned their ability, or if you’re even just on their schedule, prepare to be crushed or do something about it.”

From NFL Gameday on NFL Network:

“They are going to go 16-0. They got over their biggest obstacle today.”
– Steve Mariucci on New England Patriots

“The biggest obstacle is going to be the game that is not obvious.”
– Deion Sanders on Patriots’ chances for 16-0 season

“Tom Brady had all the best supporting actors.”
– Deion Sanders on Patriots’ 24-20 win over Colts

“I can’t wait until these teams play again, and you know they will.”
– Steve Mariucci on Patriots-Colts

“He excited me because he didn’t run typical Randy Moss routes. He ran deep-ins and quick slants.”
– Deion Sanders on Patriots WR Randy Moss, who had nine catches for 145 yards

Here are some more links on the action yesterday:

Jason Cole has Jonathan Kraft making a complaint to the NFL about the crowd noise allegations.

John Molori goes over the opinions of the so-called experts and notes that this game actually lived up to the hype and hot air.

Michael Silver has Dwight Freeney and the Colts proud that they showed the world that the Patriots can be beaten. Wait a minute…did the Colts actually beat the Patriots yesterday?

In Monday Morning Quarterback Peter King is pretty convinced that if Marvin Harrison had played yesterday, that the Colts would’ve won. I’m pretty sure that if Rodney Harrison, Junior Seau, Eugene Wilson and others had played in the AFC title game, the game might’ve ended differently.

Tom Curran says that the Patriots “killed it” in every phase of the game over the last 10 minutes yesterday.

Mike Florio has the top 10 storylines from yesterday. Included are the ball calls and the fake crowd noise in Indy.

Vic Carucci says that the Patriots proved their worth yesterday.

Steve Silverman says that the Patriots still have much to prove.

Filed Under: News

Pats to USA: Drop Dead

November 5, 2007 By 5 Comments

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Hold off on those pealing church bells, America. The New England Patriots are still the baddest mothers in the land.

Much to the chagrin of the Moral Majority of Professional Football, the Forces of Evil ripped the heart out of the Heartland yesterday with a comeback 24-20 win over the world champion Indianapolis Colts, a triumph that ranks among the most thrilling and satisfying of the Bill Belichick Era.      

Even an officiating crew populated by the first graduating class of the Bill Polian School of Refereeing couldn’t stop them.

Though it didn’t seem like it for most of the day, even to the most faithful Patriots fan, the win was a note-perfect response to last January’s devastating loss in the AFC Championship Game. This time, the Pats played a full sixty minutes in the RCA Dome, and they needed virtually every second of it to climb off their knees and escape with their perfect record still intact.

Time is not on our side this morning, so we’ll be back later with more reaction, and more tributes to a team that, even after all this time, still has jawdropping surprises in store for even its most ardent and devoted followers. For now, be sure to check Bruce Allen’s Boston Sports Media Watch for complete coverage of yesterday’s incredible win.

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