Cold Hard Redesign

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Have you been over to Cold Hard Football Facts today? There’s a spiffy new redesign/reorganization, and two articles on the Patriots early season assault on the NFL record books.

The truth still hurts, but otherwise, quite pleasant. I am especially transfixed by the newsticker in the top banner.

Kerry Byrne and company have one of the best pro football sites around, and the redesign makes a good first impression. We heartily recommend.

Wake and Bake

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

In the first twenty-three minutes of play yesterday, the Patriots:

*Took a turnover on their opponent’s first possession to a 1st and Goal, yet came away with only three points;

*Gave up a seven minute, 80 yard touchdown drive - and the lead - to a rookie quarterback seeing his first NFL action;
 
*Scored no points after being stuffed on a fourth down try near their opponent’s 20;

*Lost another score when their Super Bowl MVP quarterback fumbled inches from the opposing goal line;

*Lost two instant replay challenges, and two timeouts.

Then they woke up.

And in the end, those early cobwebs proved insignificant as the Patriots rolled to another impressive win, 38-7, over the undermanned and overmatched Buffalo Bills yesterday at Foxboro.

Tom Brady threw for four touchdowns, Randy Moss continued his remarkable start with two more scores, Laurence Maroney ran for 100 yards and the defense held the Bills to under 200 in total offense while forcing two turnovers, as New England ran their record to 3-0 for the first time since 2004.

I’m sure the Patriots were trying, but they were horribly sloppy in the first quarter and a half, which resulted in Buffalo having a surprising early lead despite losing starting quarterback JP Losman on their first possession to a questionable low hit by nose tackle Vince Wilfork.

It shouldn’t have been surprising - after two emotionally taxing weeks, the Patriots were facing a winless opponent that had suffered nothing but indignity and grievous injury since the season’s opening kickoff.

Those injuries only continued for Buffalo when Losman went down after Wilfork dove at his knees on a short completion on the first play of the game. Wilfork was undoubtedly shoved towards Losman on the play, but its hard to feel good about the elbow Wilfork threw at Losman’s knees after the ball had cleared.

To Buffalo’s credit, they overcame the loss to quickly take the lead behind a rookie quarterback who was taking his first NFL snaps. 

To New England’s credit, their reeling defense quickly gathered themselves to shut down Trent Edwards - who hit his first four passes as a pro to drive the Bills the length of the field and into the New England end zone - giving Brady and company the chance to take over the game, then put it out of reach.

It was Wes Welker who snapped the Pats out of it.

After the Brady fumble at the Buffalo goal line, the slot receiver (who also had 6 catches for 69 yards, including a 26 yard catch and run that ended with an ill advised lateral to Moss) had consecutive darting punt returns of 29 and 26 yards to twice set the Patriots offense up with short fields, which led to two New England touchdowns and a 17-7 halftime lead.

The Pats rumbled on in the second half, scoring three times while not allowing the Buffalo offense to cross midfield.

Brady finished with a remarkable 23/29/311 line, as he scales new statistical heights in his eighth year. Moss became the first NFL player in history to have 100 yards receiving in each of his first three games with a new team.

Who keeps track of things like that? Do they know if the Pats set a team record for most consecutive weeks scoring 38 points?

Anyway, after Ben Watson got the first Pats score (after deftly finding a soft spot in Buffalo coverage at the goal line), Moss extended New England’s lead to two touchdowns when he muscled his way open on a short slant pattern in front of Jabari Greer, who was left alone to defend the indefensible. He had no chance when Brady threaded the needle with the throw.

Later, he streaked past Greer to gather in a perfectly thrown 45 yarder from the Pats qb for the score that sent most New England veterans - including Brady - to the bench for the rest of the afternoon.

As I said last week, there are no words to describe Moss’s impact on Brady and the Patriots offense. He already has five touchdowns, and again, his very presence makes the game look easy for his teammates. Brady completed passes to eight different receivers, including Jabar Gaffney (a third quarter TD), Donte Stallworth (a 28 yarder for a first down), Kyle Brady (a 20 yard over the head grab to the Buffalo 2) and Dave Thomas (an early third down conversion).

The Patriots offensive line kept Brady clean (just one sack) against a line it has often struggled with, while guards Russ Hochstein and Logan Mankins and center Dan Koppen opened holes for Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans, who combined for 177 yards rushing.

The tandem of Maroney and Morris accounted for 149 of those, as Maroney slithered for nearly 5.5 yards a carry while counterpoint Morris pounded away for a respectable 3.8 clip and a short touchdown.

Buffalo linebacker Paul Posluszny was badly hurt (forearm) in the first half while trying to slow down that Patriots running game. Losman hung in after Wilfork’s low hit, but just long enough to be stripped two plays later by a blitzing Ellis Hobbs, who hacked the ball away from an unaware Losman. Soon after, he was limping to the Bills locker room, and Edwards was driving Buffalo to a score.

Just one, as the Patriots veteran defense adjusted to the rookie and kept him miles away from replicating his maiden voyage. Given their inexperienced and undermanned competition, though, there was nothing overtly impressive about the Patriots defense yesterday. 

Yet, maybe that’s impressive in and of itself. After two weeks that will go down as two of the most emotionally wringing in team history, the Patriots on Sunday faced an less threatening opponent, one they should beat easily. In other words, the protypical trap game. One they could just as easily lose, if a hangover persisted and they chose to sleep it off.

They might have been tempted to pull the covers over their heads for a few minutes yesterday, but in the end, the Patriots dragged themselves out of bed, and went to work.

A lesser team may not have woken up at all. 

The Sunday Links - September 23, 2007

logo923by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

What I’m reading this morning while anxiously awaiting Charlie Casserly’s latest explosive revelation (how’s this one - Texans, Freed From Former GM’s Incompetence, Start 2-0):

In the Globe, Mike Reiss has his weekly Football Notes, topped by good news on former Pats lineman Joe Andruzzi’s battle with cancer. The unsung Andruzzi is back in New England and in remission from the disease he’s been fighting for the last four months. Best wishes as always from all Pats fans to Joe and his family.

Chris Gasper takes us to the field, where the Pats will face the 0-2 Bills this afternoon in Foxboro, after two highly charged games that may leave them fighting complacency today. Gasper and Reiss share the daily notebook, where Randall Gay is enjoying newfound health and Brandon Meriweather is getting ready to fill in for another chronically-injured Patriot, Eugune Wilson, who may miss today’s game with an ankle problem.

In his weekly scouting report, Jim McBride likes the Pats in every matchup today.

At the Herald, John Tomase considers whether the Patriots can go 16-0. Karen Gurgeian has the Pats D trying to one-up each other in her daily notes. Tomase has five things to look for today, including the let-down factor that would seem to be the first threat to that 16-0 record.

Down at the ProJo, Shalise Manza Young has a feel good piece on Jarvis Green, who is filling in for Marquise Hill while filling in for Richard Seymour. In her game analysis, SMY likes the Pats across the board this afternoon. Bob McGarry has a look at the rest of the NFL games this weekend.

Jim Donaldson says Scott Pioli gets an A+ for his off-season roster building, which seems more like a shot at Theo Epstein than anything else. Hey Jim, if you’d graded Epstein after just two weeks of his season, wouldn’t he have gotten an A+ too? Good timing on the shots at Theo, given his team clinched a playoff berth last night.

Manza Young finishes up with an up close with Pats lineman Ryan O’Callaghan. I loved the second year man’s description of the wide variety of music he has in his car, which ranges from Garth Brooks to Alan Jackson. A Renaissance man.

In the Hartford Courant, David Heuschkel reminds us that lately, the Bills have been a tough match for the Pats. Good point.

I’ll be back after the game with a wrap-up of the day’s action. In the meantime, you can check Reiss’s Pieces and The Point After for the latest updates, and if the Sunday Links has only whet your appetite for more reading this morning, then by all means head over to patriotslinks.com for more.

College Scout - September 22, 2007

logo 922by Greg Doyle
greg@patriotsdaily.com

Week four kicks off this afternoon with league games becoming more prevalent, as teams begin to reveal themselves as contenders or pretenders. This week, we’ll try to find some good games to spotlight but also focus on teams we haven’t looked at yet. Let’s take a look:

Northwestern at Ohio State (3:30 PM ESPN): We haven’t looked at either of these teams. This will be the Big-10 opener for both. Ohio State comes in 3-0 and is ranked 8th in the country. Northwestern was off to a nice 2-0 start before last week’s embarassing loss to Duke. Ohio State only starts two seniors so we’ll be looking at some younger players.

Northwestern T Dylan Thiry (#74): Thiry is a tall tackle at 6′8″ who mans the left side for the Wildcats. He has been a three year starter over there. He clearly needs to get stronger, but has the size and could be a late round project for some team. Reportedly has a good work ethic, so that could draw some interest from the Patriots.

Northwestern LB Adam Kadela (#43): Nothwestern’s leading tackler last year, he plays inside and has good size to possibly play in the NFL. Has been a smart player and a leader, but not really that athletic and doesn’t look as big as his listed size. Not good in coverage, but solid against the run.

Northwestern S Reggie McPherson (#27): Has started for most of his four years at Northwestern at the free safety spot. Has been productive and shows a good ability to get to the ball in coverage. Could be a late round pick with a big year.

Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston (#50): One of the best defensive ends in college football, he is a pure pass rusher. Was 2nd Team All Big-10 last year and a chance to be an All-American this season. Speed and good size. Played linebacker in high school, so possibly could convert there and be a Mike Vrabel/Willie McGinest type for the Patriots. Might come out, but only a junior.

Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis (#33): In the long line of excellent Ohio State linebackers, Laurinaitis may be the best. He was a first team All-American and the Nagurski Award winner as the nation’s best linebacker as a Sophomore! Only a junior this year. For those of you longing for the Patriots to find a young inside linebacker, here is your guy. He can do it all, tackle, blitz and get out in coverage (5 INTs last year). Just a complete player. Only a junior, but could be a top 10 pick if he comes out next draft.

Purdue at Minnesota (9:00 PM ESPN2): Another Big-10 matchup between the so far impressive Purdue Boilermakers and the slow starting Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Purdue WR Dorien Bryant (#9): One of the better prospects in the country at reciever, he reportedly runs a 4.24/40. Reminds me of Deion Branch, with his speed and slight size, and can play in the slot.

Purdue TE Dustin Keller (#28): A great pass-catching tight end who could be an h-back type in the NFL. Not great size and not much of a blocker, but can get downfield and catch. 69 career catches coming into this season.
 
Purdue LB Stanford Keglar (#59): An effective linebacker with excellent size who can get back into coverage. Size alone gives him a chance with the Patriots.

Purdue DE Cliff Avril (#32): A great sized defensive end with the tools to switch to outside linebacker. This would seem the prototypical type college defensive end who could make the switch to linebacker in a 3-4. I’ll predict the Patriots are very interested in this pass rusher and athlete.

Minnesota RB Amir Pinnix (#29): Good size and strength. Not the fastest guy in the world. Backed up Laurence Maroney and ran for over 1,300 yards as a starter last year. Not as good as Maroney, but can probably play in the NFL.

Others to Watch: Kentucky has warmed Kige Ramsey’s heart by getting off to an impressive 3-0 start. Behind the success is extremely talented QB Andre Woodson (#3) who may be the most talented quarterback in the country and has potential to be a very high draft pick. He has the arm, size and mobility that could make him a star in the NFL. Check him out as Kentucky visits Arkansas at 6:00 PM on ESPN2. Washington State QB Alex Brink is worth watching. Not blessed with a tremendous arm, this smart, accurate quarterback has a tall task ahead of him taking on #1 USC at 8:00 PM on ABC. A good showing here could really raise his stock. Arizona WR Anthony Johnson (#9) will join the rest of the Wildcats in taking on California on Versus at 6:00 PM. Johnson is a possession receiver with good size who could fit with the Patriots due to his sure hands should they lose some of their receivers next offseason.

Patriots Roundtable - September 21, 2007

logo 921by the Patriots Daily Staff
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

The coast is clear, according to the Boston Globe’s Mike Reiss.

The Patriots have turned over all tapes, notes and other materials related to their illegal taping of their opponent’s defensive coaching signals, and according to Commissioner Roger Goodell, there will be no further penalties against the team.

The league also said they have no evidence to support further claims against New England.

There. Up yours to Chris Mortensen, Peter King, Charlie Casserly and the rest of the unholy cabal that sought to topple the Belichick regime. In the words of David Byrne, you’re talking a lot, but you’re not saying anything.

The mealy mouthed general managers, players and coaches who tried to bury a rival off the field with words, instead of on it with action, now have little recourse but to zip it and take their medicine, which will undoubtedly be unforgiving.

With that out of the way, let’s bring in the Roundtable gang to re-focus our energies on this week’s game.

The Bills nearly beat Denver to open the season at home, before falling to the Steelers by 23 in Pittsburgh last week. This week they’re on the road again to meet the Pats in Foxborough. Can they be the first team to slow down the Pats? Let’s start by matching up the Patriots offense against the Buffalo defense.

Travis Graham: The first week of the season decimated the Bills defense with unforeseen injuries. They went into the Steelers game with six defensive players out. Roethlisberger was able to pick them apart by spreading the ball around to nine different receivers. In the fourth quarter of the Steelers game, Terrence McGee, the Bill’s star kick returner and cornerback had to helped off the field with bruised ribs. I can’t see this second string Bills defense stopping the passing attack of the Pats. It’ll probably be similar to last week; score early through the air, then eight minute drives in the second half.

Bruce Allen: Belichick has mentioned a few times already that the Bills will be a challege just because they do things differently than the Jets and Chargers. He mentioned that both of the first two teams were 3-4 defenses, while the Bills play a 4-3 and are a quicker team up front.

Dan Snapp: Does facing the 4-3 mean more carries for Maroney? One of the early wrinkles I’m loving is Brady to Moss out of the three tight end formation. Just the concept: we know you’ll get open, and we’ll protect as long as you need to do so. They’ve scored twice out of it. Do the Bills have anything - either in coverage or pressure - to offset it?

Scott Benson: Do you think that Randy Moss likes us? That is, to say, have we made a good first impression? Because its two games and already I don’t want to think of a Patriots offense without Moss. It’s not so much all the catches and yards and touchdowns (which are all excellent, by the way) but it’s the way that production just seems to create more room for everyone else. I mean, Wes Welker has got to think he has died and gone to Heaven. It’s as if they shrunk everybody not wearing blue and silver by half. The defense looks like an overwhelmed cadre of dwarves chasing the Patriots as they run free across acres ofopen turf. I know Tom Brady didn’t break 200 yards in either game against the Bills last year, but that was before.

Tim Jordan: Bruce mentioned the 4-3 and it will interesting to see if they plan to attack it with the spread offense as they did in the first two games. Stands to reason they could try and counter the speed Buffalo has on the edges with Maroney and Morris instead. It would be great to see them open the game with 7 consecutive running plays to make the defense adjust. Other than Schoebel, is anyone really concerned about their personnel? It’s hard to find areas of concern from what we have seen thus far from the NE offense. Having said that, the Bills always seem to play the Patriots well on the road, last year’s Safety Game comes to mind, and it could be closer than the spread would indicate.

Kevin Thomas: Looking at their defense, I had no idea how young that unit is. Schobel is the elder statesman, and he’s only 30. Most of those guys are 25-26 or even younger. There’s a lot of recent high draft picks on that defense, and they could turn into a formidable group in the not-too-distant future. Not by Sunday, however. They are too inexperienced to deal with everything the Patriots can throw at them. New England will find the weak spots on that defense and exploit them as needed. The scary thing about the Patriots offense is they seemingly have a number of options and looks they really haven’t even shown yet.

How about the JP Losman and the Bills offense - how do they match up against the New England defense?

Greg Doyle: Not well. They aren’t good, especially Losman. They have one weapon, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch, a young back with potential. But that ain’t going to get it done versus the Patriots. Look for them to struggle moving the ball at all. They’ll need turnovers from their defense and short fields to have a shot of putting up points.

Bruce: Evans has been invisible the first two weeks of the season, you can’t expect that to continue, but is this the week he breaks out? I don’t know if I see that happening. Losman is a bit more mobile than Pennington or Rivers, so the pass rush will also need to adjust for that, but I still think Vrabel and Colvin are going to be around him quite a bit on Sunday. He’s going to need to get the ball away quickly.

Travis: JP is going to have to win this one for them because I have a feeling they’ll be down early and running the ball will be out of the question. The Bills tight ends stink and they could be without Josh Reed for the second week in a row. Look to see the Pats’ DBs fighting over the ball in order to boost their INT stats in this one.

Scott: For all the attention their offense is getting, the New England defense hasn’t been half bad. They’re one of the best in the league at stopping the run, and at time of possession. They’ve been respectable on third down and at rushing the passer. The Bills had as much trouble scoring on the Pats as New England did on scoring on Buffalo last year, and Adalius Thomas has had sort of a mini-Moss impact on the center of the Patriots defense.

Kevin: I don’t know. We really don’t know much about this defense. The offense has been so dominant, the defense really hasn’t needed to do a whole lot, except avoid a total collapse. They’ve obviously done alright so far, but mostly against shell-shocked opponents in perpetual “catch-up” mode. The four touchdowns they have given up are kind of concerning, since all four came after long, sustained, clock-killing drives–which is OK if you’re up by 3 scores, but not so good in a close game.

Dan: I’m eager to see the Bills’ new line. They spent big bucks to rework it. I still can’t see Lynch finding holes.

Tim: Can you believe that JP Losman has been in the league for 4 years? I am trying to think of something that makes me nervous about the Buffalo offense and it’s just not happening. This may be the week that the defense overshadows the offense. Maybe the K-Gun will rise like a Phoenix and the stadium will stand in awe of it’s precision and efficiency? Probably not, but they may go no-huddle to limit the sub-packages. Of course, you would think that they want to do everything they can to keep the Patriot offense off the field. I am not sure what you’re feeling good about if your a Buffalo fan heading into Gillette this week.

How about the coaching matchup? Will Dick Jauron fare better than Eric Mangini and Norv Turner did?

Travis: No.

Bruce: I think Belichick has a healthy respect for Jauron. He has spoken highly of him in the past, though I think he has of Turner as well. The Bills are trying to avoid an 0-3 hole, and will be focused on the New England juggernaut come Sunday. Will it be enough? I don’t see it.

Tim: This is where I usually conjure up some sophomoric and embarrassing scenario where the opposing coach humiliates himself, but I can’t do that with “Swampscott’s own” Dick Jauron. He’s from a coastal NE community like I am. I feel a kinship to him and he makes “washashores” like us proud of his stationin NFL life. Having said that, if someone that looked like Jauron worked in the children’s section of my local library I’d be Googling his name the minute I got home.

Okay, time for your predictions.

Tim: Pats 28-3.

Bruce: Why not - 38-14 Patriots.

Greg: New England 27 Buffalo 9. This one will never really be in question, the Pats will take the air out of the ball in the second half and be vanilla. They don’t have to do too much to win here and will cruise to an easy victory.

Travis: 34-3 Pats. It won’t be as close as the score indicates.

Dan: Maroney and Morris will be working overtime in the second half. 31-10.

Kevin: The Pats will score often and early, and cruise the rest of the way. 31-20.

Scott: Dick Jauron is committed to protecting his defensive signals. He shreds every Bills playbook before boarding the charter to New England, then eats the remains. The Bills are instructed that only one roommate is allowed to sleep at any one given time; lest a Belichick functionary sneak into the room and suck the brains from their heads. Jauron, in a deep sweat, insists that a bulky and questionably functional Cone of Silence be installed on the visitor’s sideline; the Bills are, of course, slaughtered 68-0. In a few weeks, Belichick won’t even have to come out of the locker room.

Outside Foxborough - Pac 10 vs Big 10 and Marshawn Lynch

fo.jpgBy Bill Barnwell
bill@patriotsdaily.com

The Bills’ selection of Marshawn Lynch was a simple one. Buffalo needed a running back after trading the wantaway Willis McGahee to Baltimore. Lynch was, outside of Adrian Peterson, the best running back available in the draft. If only all draft picks could be this easy!

Unfortunately, they’re not, and even though Lynch was the second-best running back in this draft, it’s no guarantee he’ll become a star. My own opinion on Lynch after some pre-draft film study was that he was likely to be a starting running back in the NFL, but was unlikely to become a star; mainly, his 4.46 40-time seemed to be a product of effective workouts as opposed to a speed Lynch actually played at. That’s my only real complaint about Lynch, though. He bounces out of trash very well, he stays low to the ground and gives defenders little to hit, and is a quality blocker and receiver already (if you’ve watched Laurence Maroney come out in passing situations over the last two weeks, you realize the importance of those skills to your playing time). There was one thing I didn’t really take into account when I was looking at Lynch; his college stats.

The running back preceding Lynch at Cal was J.J. Arrington, currently the third-string halfback for the Arizona Cardinals. Arrington was a JuCo transfer who had one gigantic year in a California uniform, when he rushed for 2018 yards on 289 carries, averaging 6.89 yards per carry. In Lynch’s two years as the starter for California, he averaged 6.21 yards per carry. Arrington’s of a similar build to Lynch; Lynch is an inch shorter and weighs about 10 more pounds. His 40 time was 4.49, and his vertical jump 1/2 inch smaller than Lynch’s. They’re very similar, but Arrington’s performance in college was superior to Lynch’s. Does this mean he’s likely to be the better player? Not necessarily.

At Football Outsiders, we’ve begun to scrape the surface on college performance and how it relates to a player’s likelihood of succeeding in the pros. Our first efforts in this arena is the Lewin Career Forecast, named after its researcher and writer, David Lewin. His research (the original essay for which is available here shows that for quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds, a quarterback’s college completion percentage and games started are inextricably linked to his propensity for professional success.

We’re currently working on similar research into the performance of running backs and wide receivers. We’re not there yet in being able to point to a certain stat as immutable proof of quality like we are with quarterbacks, but the predictability of quarterbacks and the reliability of translated statistics across levels in baseball, basketball, and hockey leads me to believe that college statistics for running backs and wide receivers have some predicative value.

This was a topic I examined last year when I was attempting to analyze the selection of Laurence Maroney amongst the broader spectrum of both Big Ten backs and heavily-used ones. Since that essay was written, Maroney’s predecessor at Minnesota, Marion Barber, had an excellent year with Dallas, while Maroney had a good year for the Patriots. The track record of other recent Big 10 backs, though, has been hit-and-miss, and while doing research into college team statistics, I realized one of the reasons why: their statistics are bloated.

When I was compiling college statistics using the NCAA’s database (which covers teams from 2000-2006), I organized them by conference, normalized the teams’ schedules to a 12-game season, and then calculated the average performance each team put up for each year. By doing that, I was able to find the offensive performance of the average team in each conference over the six-year span.

What I found was that the run/pass ratio across different conferences was noticeably different. Run/pass ratio is a simple metric that measures how often a team runs the ball as opposed to passing it; for example, all D-1 teams over the six-year span averaged 1.28 rushing plays for each passing play. If you limit the figures to major conferences (the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-10, SEC, Sun Belt, and WAC), the figure is 1.24. The Big Ten and the Pac-10, though, stand on different sides of the divide. Big Ten teams averaged 1.36 rushes for each pass, while Pac-10 teams averaged only 1.08, the lowest figure for any conference.

What this means is that Big Ten rushing figures are likely to be inflated, while the passing statistics of the Pac-10 are likely depressed some. Meanwhile, the opposite is likely to be true for Pac-10 players.

While teams don’t draft based upon college statistics, players who have bigger games do tend to receive more publicity, which results in more exposure, and then potentially, a higher draft slot than would be expected or maybe deserved. What we can do is look at the different players who have come out of these conferences at the respective positions since 2000, and see if NFL teams are potentially overvaluing or undervaluing them.

big10rb.jpg

These backs have not been particularly successful in the NFL. Dayne, Bennett, Duckett, and Perry were all busts — of the first-rounders, only Larry Johnson was a starting running back within his first three years, and while Johnson put up great numbers in 2005 and 2006, few people remember that the Chiefs were ready to cut bait on him in 2004. While I happen to think Maroney will be successful, the jury is still out on him. The real finds have been later picks like Ladell Betts and Marion Barber, but they’ve also only been platoon backs.

pac10rb.jpg

The similarity in draft value between these two lists is remarkable: 6844 points of draft value were spent on the Big Ten backs, while 6970 were spent on the Pac-10 backs. The latter has a big bust in Trung Canidate, but the Pac-10 yielded starting running backs in Steven Jackson and DeShaun Foster, the two most promising running backs in football in Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew, and a guy who was some marijuana away from being a starter in Onterrio Smith. The Pac-10 backs aren’t outclassing the Big Ten guys, but they’re the better group of running backs.

What if we take the same look at wideouts?

pac10wr.jpg

There are two guys on this list who are useful NFL receivers — Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, both of whom went to Oregon State and were drafted by the Bengals in 2001. They’re much better than useful, actually. No one else on this list has evolved into much of anything except for, perhaps, Dennis Northcutt, who’s a third wideout and returner. The big busts are obvious and almost legendary at this point: R. Jay Soward, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Williams, and Mike Williams are three washouts and a guy who was inactive in Week 1. On the other hand, that bust list is missing two players…

big10wr.jpg

This is a list of more useful players, short the two big busts, Charles Rogers and David Terrell. I’ve written at length about Chris Chambers’ mediocrity in the past, but even he’s a better player than everyone besides Houshmandzadeh and Johnson on the Pac-10 list. There are almost a dozen Big 10 wideouts from the last six years better than any non-Bengals Pac-10 wideout.

Finally, the same comparison with quarterbacks:

big10qb.jpg

pac10qb.jpg

The Pac-10 has notable busts in Tuiasosopo, Harrington, Boller, and perhaps Rodgers, but Palmer and Leinart. The Big Ten doesn’t really have much outside of the miracle that was Tom Brady, sixth-round pick, and Drew Brees. The difference, though, is that the Pac-10 produced multiple first-round picks at quarterback; the Big Ten didn’t have a single one (although Brees was close). There’s a possibility these Pac-10 quarterbacks could be overvalued because of the numbers they were racking up throwing the ball so frequently.

Of course, this isn’t a catch-all saying to never draft Pac-10 players involved in the passing game or Big Ten running backs. It’s merely an interesting data point in Marshawn Lynch’s favor. We’ll be revealing more findings in Pro Football Prospectus 2008, only ten months away!

Honestly, folks, nobody to be trusted in “Spygate” affair

logo 9 19by Dan Snapp
dan@patriotsdaily.com

Be honest, Patriots fans. Were you angry the team cheated, or that they got caught?

I know, I know, everything’s happening so fast, it’s tough to grasp the real issue. Is it cheating or is it gamesmanship? Does everybody do it, and does that make it alright? Stealing signals is OK, but videotaping signals isn’t? Why is Mike Ditka, of all people, talking about class? It’s all so confusing.

We’re fickle in the way we support our teams: So willing to defend the indefensible, going beyond all reason if given only one teensy shred to prey (and pray) upon. Right up to the last minute, we expected Belichick to pull out some miracle - Eric Mangini’s wedding video, the commissioner’s tax returns, whatever - something to prove his innocence, and maybe show a little Jets culpability as a toss-in.

So we lost that one. Now commissioner Roger Goodell is going after all the Patriots tapes back to 2000, and the fans are tossed in the shredder again (hopefully along with some of the more incriminating stuff). We’re back hoping the team did no wrong, but more realistically hoping any wrongdoing won’t be discovered.

When did being a sports fan turn into such a morality play?

*************

Be honest, rival fans. Are you truly this righteously indignant about the besmirched integrity of the game, or are you basking in this glorious opportunity to stick it to the Pats? And are you certain things are so lily white in your back yard?

OK, we’ll be fair. We’d be living it up, too, and will be when your turn comes.

It’s true, Eric Mangini is a genius. Who else loses games and gets ticker tape parades the next day? He’s nearly got Patriots fans rooting for the Jets to win each week so there won’t be a new scandal the following Monday. If the Jets are winless by week six, it’ll be hookers and blow. By week ten, he’ll be writing to Penthouse (”I never used to believe these stories were true, but back when I was an assistant coach for the New England Patriots…”).

By the way, good news! The Pats’ forfeited pick is going to the Jets after all. You’ll be picking 32nd instead of 33rd.

*************

Be honest, sports media. When you say, “Think of the fans, think of the children” aren’t you really saying, “Think of us”? Is this the karma payback for all those cold shoulders, all those soundbite-free press conferences?

The Providence Journal’s Jim Donaldson told us if Belichick had Ron Meyer’s car salesman slickness, he’d be “easier to forgive “. Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman wagged his finger at the “smug, arrogant” Belichick, then waxed poetic on the ways teams cheated in the good old days. Ah, those playful scamps! Dr. Z’s colleague Peter King said he hopes Belichick ” had a come-to-Jesus moment” (whole lot of good that it did Michael Vick). Are these people for real?

The message couldn’t be any clearer: give us that to which we’re entitled, and you’ll be treated fairly. Is it any wonder he shuts these people out in the first place?

It’s become a race now to see who can top each other on the ridiculousness scale. Richard Nixon comparisons were last week; this week, it’s ” Michael Vick has more dignity than Belichick.” They’re trying out Rae Carruth analogies on test audiences as we speak.

Oh, and guys, if this thing keeps going, can we please retire “brazen”? Try “impudent”, “insolent”, “audacious” or - you’ll love this - “shameless”.

*************

Be honest, Bill Belichick. A “misinterpretation” of the rules? Really? That little Eddie Haskell routine probably sealed your fate with the commissioner more so than the actual offense.

Be truthful, Robert Kraft, because your poker face stinks. Don’t tell us you just found out about it. Where were you when the complaints came down last year?

Incidentally, Kraft blew an opportunity to help this thing blow over. After the commissioner gave his punishment, Kraft should have levied one of his own, suspending Belichick for two or three games.

Bear with me here.

Belichick has created a culture in New England that says “Everybody is treated the same.” This is why he suspended Terry Glenn twice in 2001, despite having a painfully thin receiver corps and in the middle of a playoff race.

Suspending Belichick would show the players that he’s one of them, susceptible to the same punishment they would serve. They know the fines mean nothing, and the lost draft pick is a team burden, not a Belichick one.

A suspension would also allow Kraft to save face for the embarrassment Belichick brought to his organization. That’s the penalty that’s going to linger longest, the doubt cast over every achievement of the past seven years. For his own sake, his investment’s sake, he should have done something about that.

A suspension would quiet much of the crowd that’s now saying, “He got off easy.” Sure, some - OK, Bill Polian - will shriek for something harsher (forfeitures, entire drafts, banishment, the stockades, etc.) but those cries would be muffled. Moreover, the Patriots could weather Belichick’s absence, maybe even come back stronger.

After the suspension was served, then leak the story that Belichick’s been re-upped through 2013. Leave no room for doubt. The actions of the coach hurt the the organization, you took measures beyond what the commissioner laid down, and now you welcome him back with open arms to lead your team into the next decade.

Kraft is served, the team is served, justice is served. Ass-kicking resumes.

*************

Finally, tell us the truth, Commissioner Goodell. Have you thought this through?

What’s the point of seeking all the Patriots tapes? You’re either going to find something, or not find something and think you should. You’ll punish the Pats, and reinforce the word “Cheat” as part of the NFL brand.

You could have been done with it. You could have said, “The penalty was harsh and just, and will deter the Patriots and all other teams from engaging in this sort of behavior again,” and that’s that.

Besides, you’re not really going to find anything anyway.

Trust us on this.

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