February 10, 2012


Patriots Roundtable – September 21, 2007

logo 921by the Patriots Daily Staff
[email protected]

The coast is clear, according to the Boston Globe’s Mike Reiss.

The Patriots have turned over all tapes, notes and other materials related to their illegal taping of their opponent’s defensive coaching signals, and according to Commissioner Roger Goodell, there will be no further penalties against the team.

The league also said they have no evidence to support further claims against New England.

There. Up yours to Chris Mortensen, Peter King, Charlie Casserly and the rest of the unholy cabal that sought to topple the Belichick regime. In the words of David Byrne, you’re talking a lot, but you’re not saying anything.

The mealy mouthed general managers, players and coaches who tried to bury a rival off the field with words, instead of on it with action, now have little recourse but to zip it and take their medicine, which will undoubtedly be unforgiving.

With that out of the way, let’s bring in the Roundtable gang to re-focus our energies on this week’s game.

The Bills nearly beat Denver to open the season at home, before falling to the Steelers by 23 in Pittsburgh last week. This week they’re on the road again to meet the Pats in Foxborough. Can they be the first team to slow down the Pats? Let’s start by matching up the Patriots offense against the Buffalo defense.

Travis Graham: The first week of the season decimated the Bills defense with unforeseen injuries. They went into the Steelers game with six defensive players out. Roethlisberger was able to pick them apart by spreading the ball around to nine different receivers. In the fourth quarter of the Steelers game, Terrence McGee, the Bill’s star kick returner and cornerback had to helped off the field with bruised ribs. I can’t see this second string Bills defense stopping the passing attack of the Pats. It’ll probably be similar to last week; score early through the air, then eight minute drives in the second half.

Bruce Allen: Belichick has mentioned a few times already that the Bills will be a challege just because they do things differently than the Jets and Chargers. He mentioned that both of the first two teams were 3-4 defenses, while the Bills play a 4-3 and are a quicker team up front.

Dan Snapp: Does facing the 4-3 mean more carries for Maroney? One of the early wrinkles I’m loving is Brady to Moss out of the three tight end formation. Just the concept: we know you’ll get open, and we’ll protect as long as you need to do so. They’ve scored twice out of it. Do the Bills have anything – either in coverage or pressure – to offset it?

Scott Benson: Do you think that Randy Moss likes us? That is, to say, have we made a good first impression? Because its two games and already I don’t want to think of a Patriots offense without Moss. It’s not so much all the catches and yards and touchdowns (which are all excellent, by the way) but it’s the way that production just seems to create more room for everyone else. I mean, Wes Welker has got to think he has died and gone to Heaven. It’s as if they shrunk everybody not wearing blue and silver by half. The defense looks like an overwhelmed cadre of dwarves chasing the Patriots as they run free across acres ofopen turf. I know Tom Brady didn’t break 200 yards in either game against the Bills last year, but that was before.

Tim Jordan: Bruce mentioned the 4-3 and it will interesting to see if they plan to attack it with the spread offense as they did in the first two games. Stands to reason they could try and counter the speed Buffalo has on the edges with Maroney and Morris instead. It would be great to see them open the game with 7 consecutive running plays to make the defense adjust. Other than Schoebel, is anyone really concerned about their personnel? It’s hard to find areas of concern from what we have seen thus far from the NE offense. Having said that, the Bills always seem to play the Patriots well on the road, last year’s Safety Game comes to mind, and it could be closer than the spread would indicate.

Kevin Thomas: Looking at their defense, I had no idea how young that unit is. Schobel is the elder statesman, and he’s only 30. Most of those guys are 25-26 or even younger. There’s a lot of recent high draft picks on that defense, and they could turn into a formidable group in the not-too-distant future. Not by Sunday, however. They are too inexperienced to deal with everything the Patriots can throw at them. New England will find the weak spots on that defense and exploit them as needed. The scary thing about the Patriots offense is they seemingly have a number of options and looks they really haven’t even shown yet.

How about the JP Losman and the Bills offense – how do they match up against the New England defense?

Greg Doyle: Not well. They aren’t good, especially Losman. They have one weapon, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch, a young back with potential. But that ain’t going to get it done versus the Patriots. Look for them to struggle moving the ball at all. They’ll need turnovers from their defense and short fields to have a shot of putting up points.

Bruce: Evans has been invisible the first two weeks of the season, you can’t expect that to continue, but is this the week he breaks out? I don’t know if I see that happening. Losman is a bit more mobile than Pennington or Rivers, so the pass rush will also need to adjust for that, but I still think Vrabel and Colvin are going to be around him quite a bit on Sunday. He’s going to need to get the ball away quickly.

Travis: JP is going to have to win this one for them because I have a feeling they’ll be down early and running the ball will be out of the question. The Bills tight ends stink and they could be without Josh Reed for the second week in a row. Look to see the Pats’ DBs fighting over the ball in order to boost their INT stats in this one.

Scott: For all the attention their offense is getting, the New England defense hasn’t been half bad. They’re one of the best in the league at stopping the run, and at time of possession. They’ve been respectable on third down and at rushing the passer. The Bills had as much trouble scoring on the Pats as New England did on scoring on Buffalo last year, and Adalius Thomas has had sort of a mini-Moss impact on the center of the Patriots defense.

Kevin: I don’t know. We really don’t know much about this defense. The offense has been so dominant, the defense really hasn’t needed to do a whole lot, except avoid a total collapse. They’ve obviously done alright so far, but mostly against shell-shocked opponents in perpetual “catch-up” mode. The four touchdowns they have given up are kind of concerning, since all four came after long, sustained, clock-killing drives–which is OK if you’re up by 3 scores, but not so good in a close game.

Dan: I’m eager to see the Bills’ new line. They spent big bucks to rework it. I still can’t see Lynch finding holes.

Tim: Can you believe that JP Losman has been in the league for 4 years? I am trying to think of something that makes me nervous about the Buffalo offense and it’s just not happening. This may be the week that the defense overshadows the offense. Maybe the K-Gun will rise like a Phoenix and the stadium will stand in awe of it’s precision and efficiency? Probably not, but they may go no-huddle to limit the sub-packages. Of course, you would think that they want to do everything they can to keep the Patriot offense off the field. I am not sure what you’re feeling good about if your a Buffalo fan heading into Gillette this week.

How about the coaching matchup? Will Dick Jauron fare better than Eric Mangini and Norv Turner did?

Travis: No.

Bruce: I think Belichick has a healthy respect for Jauron. He has spoken highly of him in the past, though I think he has of Turner as well. The Bills are trying to avoid an 0-3 hole, and will be focused on the New England juggernaut come Sunday. Will it be enough? I don’t see it.

Tim: This is where I usually conjure up some sophomoric and embarrassing scenario where the opposing coach humiliates himself, but I can’t do that with “Swampscott’s own” Dick Jauron. He’s from a coastal NE community like I am. I feel a kinship to him and he makes “washashores” like us proud of his stationin NFL life. Having said that, if someone that looked like Jauron worked in the children’s section of my local library I’d be Googling his name the minute I got home.

Okay, time for your predictions.

Tim: Pats 28-3.

Bruce: Why not – 38-14 Patriots.

Greg: New England 27 Buffalo 9. This one will never really be in question, the Pats will take the air out of the ball in the second half and be vanilla. They don’t have to do too much to win here and will cruise to an easy victory.

Travis: 34-3 Pats. It won’t be as close as the score indicates.

Dan: Maroney and Morris will be working overtime in the second half. 31-10.

Kevin: The Pats will score often and early, and cruise the rest of the way. 31-20.

Scott: Dick Jauron is committed to protecting his defensive signals. He shreds every Bills playbook before boarding the charter to New England, then eats the remains. The Bills are instructed that only one roommate is allowed to sleep at any one given time; lest a Belichick functionary sneak into the room and suck the brains from their heads. Jauron, in a deep sweat, insists that a bulky and questionably functional Cone of Silence be installed on the visitor’s sideline; the Bills are, of course, slaughtered 68-0. In a few weeks, Belichick won’t even have to come out of the locker room.

Outside Foxborough – Pac 10 vs Big 10 and Marshawn Lynch

fo.jpgBy Bill Barnwell
[email protected]

The Bills’ selection of Marshawn Lynch was a simple one. Buffalo needed a running back after trading the wantaway Willis McGahee to Baltimore. Lynch was, outside of Adrian Peterson, the best running back available in the draft. If only all draft picks could be this easy!

Unfortunately, they’re not, and even though Lynch was the second-best running back in this draft, it’s no guarantee he’ll become a star. My own opinion on Lynch after some pre-draft film study was that he was likely to be a starting running back in the NFL, but was unlikely to become a star; mainly, his 4.46 40-time seemed to be a product of effective workouts as opposed to a speed Lynch actually played at. That’s my only real complaint about Lynch, though. He bounces out of trash very well, he stays low to the ground and gives defenders little to hit, and is a quality blocker and receiver already (if you’ve watched Laurence Maroney come out in passing situations over the last two weeks, you realize the importance of those skills to your playing time). There was one thing I didn’t really take into account when I was looking at Lynch; his college stats.

The running back preceding Lynch at Cal was J.J. Arrington, currently the third-string halfback for the Arizona Cardinals. Arrington was a JuCo transfer who had one gigantic year in a California uniform, when he rushed for 2018 yards on 289 carries, averaging 6.89 yards per carry. In Lynch’s two years as the starter for California, he averaged 6.21 yards per carry. Arrington’s of a similar build to Lynch; Lynch is an inch shorter and weighs about 10 more pounds. His 40 time was 4.49, and his vertical jump 1/2 inch smaller than Lynch’s. They’re very similar, but Arrington’s performance in college was superior to Lynch’s. Does this mean he’s likely to be the better player? Not necessarily.

At Football Outsiders, we’ve begun to scrape the surface on college performance and how it relates to a player’s likelihood of succeeding in the pros. Our first efforts in this arena is the Lewin Career Forecast, named after its researcher and writer, David Lewin. His research (the original essay for which is available here shows that for quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds, a quarterback’s college completion percentage and games started are inextricably linked to his propensity for professional success.

We’re currently working on similar research into the performance of running backs and wide receivers. We’re not there yet in being able to point to a certain stat as immutable proof of quality like we are with quarterbacks, but the predictability of quarterbacks and the reliability of translated statistics across levels in baseball, basketball, and hockey leads me to believe that college statistics for running backs and wide receivers have some predicative value.

This was a topic I examined last year when I was attempting to analyze the selection of Laurence Maroney amongst the broader spectrum of both Big Ten backs and heavily-used ones. Since that essay was written, Maroney’s predecessor at Minnesota, Marion Barber, had an excellent year with Dallas, while Maroney had a good year for the Patriots. The track record of other recent Big 10 backs, though, has been hit-and-miss, and while doing research into college team statistics, I realized one of the reasons why: their statistics are bloated.

When I was compiling college statistics using the NCAA’s database (which covers teams from 2000-2006), I organized them by conference, normalized the teams’ schedules to a 12-game season, and then calculated the average performance each team put up for each year. By doing that, I was able to find the offensive performance of the average team in each conference over the six-year span.

What I found was that the run/pass ratio across different conferences was noticeably different. Run/pass ratio is a simple metric that measures how often a team runs the ball as opposed to passing it; for example, all D-1 teams over the six-year span averaged 1.28 rushing plays for each passing play. If you limit the figures to major conferences (the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-10, SEC, Sun Belt, and WAC), the figure is 1.24. The Big Ten and the Pac-10, though, stand on different sides of the divide. Big Ten teams averaged 1.36 rushes for each pass, while Pac-10 teams averaged only 1.08, the lowest figure for any conference.

What this means is that Big Ten rushing figures are likely to be inflated, while the passing statistics of the Pac-10 are likely depressed some. Meanwhile, the opposite is likely to be true for Pac-10 players.

While teams don’t draft based upon college statistics, players who have bigger games do tend to receive more publicity, which results in more exposure, and then potentially, a higher draft slot than would be expected or maybe deserved. What we can do is look at the different players who have come out of these conferences at the respective positions since 2000, and see if NFL teams are potentially overvaluing or undervaluing them.

big10rb.jpg

These backs have not been particularly successful in the NFL. Dayne, Bennett, Duckett, and Perry were all busts — of the first-rounders, only Larry Johnson was a starting running back within his first three years, and while Johnson put up great numbers in 2005 and 2006, few people remember that the Chiefs were ready to cut bait on him in 2004. While I happen to think Maroney will be successful, the jury is still out on him. The real finds have been later picks like Ladell Betts and Marion Barber, but they’ve also only been platoon backs.

pac10rb.jpg

The similarity in draft value between these two lists is remarkable: 6844 points of draft value were spent on the Big Ten backs, while 6970 were spent on the Pac-10 backs. The latter has a big bust in Trung Canidate, but the Pac-10 yielded starting running backs in Steven Jackson and DeShaun Foster, the two most promising running backs in football in Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew, and a guy who was some marijuana away from being a starter in Onterrio Smith. The Pac-10 backs aren’t outclassing the Big Ten guys, but they’re the better group of running backs.

What if we take the same look at wideouts?

pac10wr.jpg

There are two guys on this list who are useful NFL receivers — Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, both of whom went to Oregon State and were drafted by the Bengals in 2001. They’re much better than useful, actually. No one else on this list has evolved into much of anything except for, perhaps, Dennis Northcutt, who’s a third wideout and returner. The big busts are obvious and almost legendary at this point: R. Jay Soward, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Williams, and Mike Williams are three washouts and a guy who was inactive in Week 1. On the other hand, that bust list is missing two players…

big10wr.jpg

This is a list of more useful players, short the two big busts, Charles Rogers and David Terrell. I’ve written at length about Chris Chambers’ mediocrity in the past, but even he’s a better player than everyone besides Houshmandzadeh and Johnson on the Pac-10 list. There are almost a dozen Big 10 wideouts from the last six years better than any non-Bengals Pac-10 wideout.

Finally, the same comparison with quarterbacks:

big10qb.jpg

pac10qb.jpg

The Pac-10 has notable busts in Tuiasosopo, Harrington, Boller, and perhaps Rodgers, but Palmer and Leinart. The Big Ten doesn’t really have much outside of the miracle that was Tom Brady, sixth-round pick, and Drew Brees. The difference, though, is that the Pac-10 produced multiple first-round picks at quarterback; the Big Ten didn’t have a single one (although Brees was close). There’s a possibility these Pac-10 quarterbacks could be overvalued because of the numbers they were racking up throwing the ball so frequently.

Of course, this isn’t a catch-all saying to never draft Pac-10 players involved in the passing game or Big Ten running backs. It’s merely an interesting data point in Marshawn Lynch’s favor. We’ll be revealing more findings in Pro Football Prospectus 2008, only ten months away!

Nobody to be Trusted in Spygate Affair

logo 9 19by Dan Snapp
[email protected]

Be honest, Patriots fans. Were you angry the team cheated, or that they got caught?

I know, I know, everything’s happening so fast, it’s tough to grasp the real issue. Is it cheating or is it gamesmanship? Does everybody do it, and does that make it alright? Stealing signals is OK, but videotaping signals isn’t? Why is Mike Ditka, of all people, talking about class? It’s all so confusing.

We’re fickle in the way we support our teams: So willing to defend the indefensible, going beyond all reason if given only one teensy shred to prey (and pray) upon. Right up to the last minute, we expected Belichick to pull out some miracle – Eric Mangini’s wedding video, the commissioner’s tax returns, whatever – something to prove his innocence, and maybe show a little Jets culpability as a toss-in.

So we lost that one. Now commissioner Roger Goodell is going after all the Patriots tapes back to 2000, and the fans are tossed in the shredder again (hopefully along with some of the more incriminating stuff). We’re back hoping the team did no wrong, but more realistically hoping any wrongdoing won’t be discovered.

When did being a sports fan turn into such a morality play?

*************

Be honest, rival fans. Are you truly this righteously indignant about the besmirched integrity of the game, or are you basking in this glorious opportunity to stick it to the Pats? And are you certain things are so lily white in your back yard?

OK, we’ll be fair. We’d be living it up, too, and will be when your turn comes.

It’s true, Eric Mangini is a genius. Who else loses games and gets ticker tape parades the next day? He’s nearly got Patriots fans rooting for the Jets to win each week so there won’t be a new scandal the following Monday. If the Jets are winless by week six, it’ll be hookers and blow. By week ten, he’ll be writing to Penthouse (“I never used to believe these stories were true, but back when I was an assistant coach for the New England Patriots…”).

By the way, good news! The Pats’ forfeited pick is going to the Jets after all. You’ll be picking 32nd instead of 33rd.

*************

Be honest, sports media. When you say, “Think of the fans, think of the children” aren’t you really saying, “Think of us”? Is this the karma payback for all those cold shoulders, all those soundbite-free press conferences?

The Providence Journal’s Jim Donaldson told us if Belichick had Ron Meyer’s car salesman slickness, he’d be “easier to forgive “. Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman wagged his finger at the “smug, arrogant” Belichick, then waxed poetic on the ways teams cheated in the good old days. Ah, those playful scamps! Dr. Z’s colleague Peter King said he hopes Belichick ” had a come-to-Jesus moment” (whole lot of good that it did Michael Vick). Are these people for real?

The message couldn’t be any clearer: give us that to which we’re entitled, and you’ll be treated fairly. Is it any wonder he shuts these people out in the first place?

It’s become a race now to see who can top each other on the ridiculousness scale. Richard Nixon comparisons were last week; this week, it’s ” Michael Vick has more dignity than Belichick.” They’re trying out Rae Carruth analogies on test audiences as we speak.

Oh, and guys, if this thing keeps going, can we please retire “brazen”? Try “impudent”, “insolent”, “audacious” or – you’ll love this – “shameless”.

*************

Be honest, Bill Belichick. A “misinterpretation” of the rules? Really? That little Eddie Haskell routine probably sealed your fate with the commissioner more so than the actual offense.

Be truthful, Robert Kraft, because your poker face stinks. Don’t tell us you just found out about it. Where were you when the complaints came down last year?

Incidentally, Kraft blew an opportunity to help this thing blow over. After the commissioner gave his punishment, Kraft should have levied one of his own, suspending Belichick for two or three games.

Bear with me here.

Belichick has created a culture in New England that says “Everybody is treated the same.” This is why he suspended Terry Glenn twice in 2001, despite having a painfully thin receiver corps and in the middle of a playoff race.

Suspending Belichick would show the players that he’s one of them, susceptible to the same punishment they would serve. They know the fines mean nothing, and the lost draft pick is a team burden, not a Belichick one.

A suspension would also allow Kraft to save face for the embarrassment Belichick brought to his organization. That’s the penalty that’s going to linger longest, the doubt cast over every achievement of the past seven years. For his own sake, his investment’s sake, he should have done something about that.

A suspension would quiet much of the crowd that’s now saying, “He got off easy.” Sure, some – OK, Bill Polian – will shriek for something harsher (forfeitures, entire drafts, banishment, the stockades, etc.) but those cries would be muffled. Moreover, the Patriots could weather Belichick’s absence, maybe even come back stronger.

After the suspension was served, then leak the story that Belichick’s been re-upped through 2013. Leave no room for doubt. The actions of the coach hurt the the organization, you took measures beyond what the commissioner laid down, and now you welcome him back with open arms to lead your team into the next decade.

Kraft is served, the team is served, justice is served. Ass-kicking resumes.

*************

Finally, tell us the truth, Commissioner Goodell. Have you thought this through?

What’s the point of seeking all the Patriots tapes? You’re either going to find something, or not find something and think you should. You’ll punish the Pats, and reinforce the word “Cheat” as part of the NFL brand.

You could have been done with it. You could have said, “The penalty was harsh and just, and will deter the Patriots and all other teams from engaging in this sort of behavior again,” and that’s that.

Besides, you’re not really going to find anything anyway.

Trust us on this.

Inside Gillette

logo 918by Christopher Price
[email protected]

Living in Massachusetts, we’ve learned to accept the fact that there are some constants in life: There will always be corruption on Beacon Hill. Hollywood will continue to mock our accents by placing Ben Affleck in every Boston-based film imaginable. And despite any distractions, the Patriots and Bill Belichick will be able to focus on any job that’s been placed in front of them.

With a national television audience salivating at the possibility of Belichick being humbled by the mighty Chargers — just days after he was humbled by commissioner Roger Goodell over the Patriots illegal videotaping of the Jets’ defensive coaches — New England weathered the storm again Sunday night against the Chargers, showing remarkable resiliency in a 38-14 smackdown in front of a sold-out Gillette Stadium crowd. The win was impressive, as the Patriots dominated on both sides of the football and gave themselves an early lead in the race for home-field in the AFC playoffs.

But more importantly, it proved that, once again, when it comes to crisis management, no one holds a candle to Belichick and the Patriots.

“I think we do a great job as a team and as an organization on keeping what is going on outside, outside,” said nose tackle Vince Wilfork, who helped the defense bottle up running back LaDainian Tomlinson (43 rushing yards). “We only care about what is going on in here; how we can stop this team. That is the only thing we are concerned about.”

“I think over the years we’ve had a lot of distractions from week to week, and this team and our coaches have always done a great job of keeping us focused,” said quarterback Tom Brady, who shredded the San Diego defense for three passes touchdowns and led New England to a total of 407 yards on the night. “I think this team did a nice job the last few weeks of putting some distractions behind us, and realizing that the most important thing is coming out and trying to win football games.”

Brady knows of what he speaks. In truth, the latest flareup is the third major possible distraction in the last seven seasons for the Patriots and Belichick. In 2001, it was a burgeoning quarterback controversy between Brady and Drew Bledsoe that threatened to sabotage the season. And in 2003, the Patriots released veteran safety Lawyer Milloy in the days leading up to their Week 1 matchup with the Bills. After Milloy signed with Buffalo, the Bills routed the Patriots, 31-0. Both incidents remain as defining moments in seasons that ended with Super Bowl wins, with their ability to focus on the overall task at hand — namely winning football games, despite the many distractions swirling around them — serving as the most impressive overall characteristic of each of those teams.

Will Sunday’s game be remembered the same way? No one yet knows, but the sort of resiliency Belichick and the franchise developed in those difficult days in 2001 and 2003 has prepared them well for this season. The 2007 Patriots lost their two best defensive players (Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison) for at least the first four weeks of the season to injury and a suspension for HGH. And their entire Super Bowl legacy was called into question by cynics because of the videotaping scandal involving the Jets in Week 1. It’s a series of events that would have been crippling to most teams, especially when faced with the prospect of playing the high-octane Chargers, one of the best offenses in the league.

For the Patriots? It was just another week at the office, one that ended in a familiar fashion.

“We went through a lot this week, but we blocked it all out,” said linebacker Tedy Bruschi. “For everything that went on this week, we just had to focus on winning the game. Just win a game the way we’ve always done it, the way we’ve always prepared. Nothing special.”

FIVE THINGS TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK

1. How the Bills’ offensive line does protecting J.P. Losman. Last season, the Buffalo offense ran a max-protect scheme 18 percent of the time, the second-most in the league. Expect more of the same this week as they try and neutralize the Patriots pass rush. New England enters the game with eight sacks, the fourth-best mark in the league.

2. How the Patriots defend defensive end Aaron Schobel. The New England offensive line has traditionally struggled against speed rushers like Schobel in the past — the former TCU standout has six sacks of Brady the last two seasons, more than traditional Brady nemesis Jason Taylor has had in that span.

3. Can the Bills’ slow down the Patriots passing offense? Buffalo has allowed an average of 267.5 passing yards in the first two games of the season (27th-best in the league). New England has averaged 280 passing yards through the first two games (fourth-best in the league). Could be a long afternoon for the Buffalo secondary.

4. Marshawn Lynch. Barring injury, Sunday’s game against the Bills will likely mark the only time this season the Patriots’ defense will face a team with a rookie as the featured back. With such a limited resume, New England doesn’t have much to go on when it comes to defending the youngster, who has an impressive 154 rushing yards through two games against the Broncos and Steelers.

5. Focus. The Patriots were able to maintain their focus throughout the week leading up to the Chargers game, keeping their minds on the task at hand instead of the off-field videotaping flap. Can they do the same thing this week against the Bills?

STAT OF THE WEEK

With Sunday night’s win, Tom Brady improved to 56-2 in his regular season career when holding a halftime lead. Sunday’s game marked the second straight contest where New England scored on its opening possession, and it’s the first time in Patriots history they have begun the season with consecutive opening-drive touchdowns.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“They just jumped on us like a spider monkey.” Chargers fullback Lorenzo Neal on the Patriots fast start Sunday night — New England jumped to a 24-0 first-half lead on the way to the 38-14 win.

Christopher Price is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the Patriots since 2001 for Boston Metro. He’s served a contributor to ESPN.com, SI.com, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post and The Miami Herald. His book “The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower” will be released Oct. 16 by Thomas Dunne Books. He can be reached at [email protected].

Make It Eight

gdrv_sm.jpgby Scott Benson
[email protected]

Before last night’s game with the Patriots, Chargers running back LaDanian Tomlinson told NBC’s John Madden that if San Diego played New England ten times, the Chargers would win nine.

Make it eight.

After a week in which they and their head coach were the object of national scorn, ridicule and cheap talk like Tomlinson’s, the stoic Patriots did their talking on the Gillette Stadium field last night, blowing out the chatty Chargers 38-14 before a national television audience.

Madden’s broadcast partner Al Michaels called it: “Pretty much no contest from early on.”

Tom Brady threw for three touchdowns, two to Randy Moss, and the New England defense forced three San Diego turnovers while adding a score of its own, as Bill Belichick and his three-time champions offered their first extended response to the controversy that continues to swirl around them.

Tomlinson, who attacked Belichick last January and again this week before his amateurish boast to Madden, carried 18 times for a meager 43 yards. It is not known who or what Tomlinson will blame his team’s latest failure on, but rest assured, it will be something.

If he wants to be honest (he doesn’t), he can start with Patriots linebackers Rosevelt Colvin and Adalius Thomas, who harrassed Phillip Rivers and the San Diego offense to the extent that it was the third quarter before they could muster something other than bumbling inefficiency.

Colvin intercepted Rivers on the Chargers first offensive play, strip sacked him on two others, and led all Patriots in tackles in perhaps his most dominant performance as a Patriot. His new teammate Thomas, who was all over the field despite a modest stat line, stepped in front on another Rivers pass before returning it 65 yards for a touchdown that gave the Patriots a 24-0 halftime lead that all but put the lights out in San Diego.

The game began with a hysterically laughable Andrea Kramer report from just outside the San Diego locker room, where head coach Norv Turner happened to share with Kramer a fantastic tale of “extraordinary meaures” taken to ensure that shadowy New England operatives, most likely trained by G. Gordon Liddy (if Kramer could be believed), didn’t abscond with Chargers trade secrets, including a closely guarded list of scripted plays that Turner prepared specifically for the occasion.

It might have been the most ridiculous moment in a week that was filled with them. One question: how did that script work out for you, Norv?

Well, three turnovers and three punts in the game’s first thirty minutes of play. Don’t expect any Academy Award nominations for that script, Norv. But don’t worry – you’re still in the running for Best Dramatization by a Totally Overmatched Coach.

Brady (25/31/279) and Moss (8-105) were incredible again, throwing and scoring at will while opening up the field for teammates like Wes Welker (8-91), Ben Watson (5-49 and the game’s first touchdown) and Laurence Maroney (15-77 after a slow start). I have neither the time nor the words to describe the difference Moss is making in New England; it matters not how many defenders bracket him, he simply runs by them to create a Great Wide Open that makes it look like the Patriots are playing on a CFL field.

The success was keyed again by an offensive line led by Dan Koppen and Logan Mankins, who combined to drive Pro Bowl tackle Jamal Williams to the ground, and then finally, from the game. Even two sacks (and a strip) by dangerous pass rusher Shawne Merriman were rendered irrelevant by New England’s mastery of the team that many had deemed their superior.

The Chargers finally put together two scoring drives in the second half, but for the second straight week, the Patriots owned the fourth quarter, controlling the ball for nearly thirteen of the fifteen minutes before punctuating their dominance with a late Sammy Morris touchdown run that closed out the scoring.

The night ended with Belichick, haggard but unbowed, acknowledging the well wishes of the Gillette Stadium faithful as he made his way to the New England locker room. Behind him, his quarterback, left to deal with Kramer (who added a report that the last place Jets are considering further charges – shocking), called him “the greatest coach in the history of the NFL.”

He is that – and once again, he’s coaching the best team in the league.

Michael Smith – Belichick Signs Through 2013?

ESPN’s Michael Smith reports the following:

Belichick and Patriots ownership recently agreed to a long-term contract extension. The pact will keep Belichick on New England’s sideline through at least the 2013 season, according to league sources and sources close to the coach. The deal was agreed to before the recent “spying” scandal in which the Patriots were punished by the NFL.

If true, that’s the best news we’ve heard in some time, and hopefully puts to rest the “one final run” rumors.

Charlie Casserly Has All The Answers

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Unless the question is – Reggie Bush, or Mario Williams?

On the CBS pre-game show, Casserly just claimed that along with videotaping opposing coaches for the purpose of stealing their defensive signals, the Patriots are also jamming the other team’s radio signals (even on the road) and breaking into their opponent’s locker rooms to steal game plans.

The New York Jets – who couldn’t possibly have been Casserly’s source – told the two-time loser GM that they reserve the right to levy further charges against the Pats “if new information becomes available.”

The Jets – currently mired in last place in the AFC East -  also reserve the right to announce the earth is flat and the sky is green (with envy) “if new information becomes available.”

Meanwhile, Casserly – waiting in vain for another fool willing to hand his team over to the general managing equivilent of a multi-car pile up – passes the time by furthering the hidden agendas of his booze-soaked former colleagues on the NFL’s shadow government, otherwise known as its Competition Committee.

The Sunday Links – September 16, 2007

logo 916by Scott Benson
[email protected]

So, what do we talk about this morning?

You can’t swing a dead cat without hitting someone who wants to “move beyond this and talk about the games,” but it will be awhile before we’re able to truly move beyond Camera-gate.

I mean, at times this week’s controversy made the Michael Vick scandal seem like a minor skermish. Look, Bill Belichick effed up, in grand style. He may never remove the asterisk that has now been affixed – whether it’s fair or not, whether we like it or not – to his historic career. The team he coaches may never escape the dark skepticism that now surrounds its own historic achievements. 

That kind of thing doesn’t blow over in a few days, not even for the San Diego Chargers.

The definitive account of this regrettable affair won’t be rendered unto history in a matter of hours, days, weeks or months. The battle over who will write that history will take at least that long. The bloodthirsty vultures who have leapt on the troubling weakness of their adversary – while cynically concealing their own perverse demons – will insist on it.

All I can say is that I hope when the dust settles, Michael Silver’s Friday column for Yahoo Sports stands atop the pile of otherwise worthless rubble that Belichick’s rivals will undoubtedly create.

Silver is brutal on Belichick, a view I’m inclined to accept. Mostly because for the first time, a national columnist has also turned a critical eye towards the men who so hypocritically accused him, and gives context to the disgace that enveloped the coach and his team this week. Silver painstakingly chronicles the deteriorating relationship between Belichick and Eric Mangini, which ended for sure when Mangini exposed tactics he once gladly exploited to advance his own career. Silver’s blistering indictment of both sides has to be the most balanced – and as a result, perhaps the most truthful – account filed by any writer anywhere this week.

Silver closes by setting a fair and reasonable bar to measure the future actions of the men most responsible for this debacle. We can only hope that Belichick has already considered and adopted the action plan that Silver lays out, or that he soon will. To do otherwise would truly tarnish his legacy.

Let’s move on to the morning papers.

And right on cue to substantiate the above thesis comes the slimy, slithering bottomfeeders at the Boston Herald, led by an executive team so skilled and learned that the 160 year old tabloid is now being forced – free of charge – into the hands of harassed subway commuters, by hawkers charged with the daily disposal of their bosses’ malfeasance.

First, let’s start with the Herald staff that had at least enough integrity to affix a by-line to their work this morning.

John Tomase asks if the Pats will once again respond to adversity with a convincing win. John also adds five things to look for tonight. Karen Guregian chips in with the daily notebook, which looks at Laurence Maroney, who was part of a Patriots ground game that was held to 51 yards the last time New England met the Chargers.

Though it’s not credited to him (just a vague “Herald Staff”), I supsect Tomase is also the author of a look at why the Patriots have become the most hated team in the NFL. Reasonable question. Guess what – it’s Bill Belichick’s fault, for not playing grab ass around the pool at league meetings. Oh, yeah, there were three world championships too, but I’m sure that if they had been more polite about it, the Pats would now be considered a national treasure by rival teams and fans. John’s entitled to his opinion here, but one thing I’d suggest is that he may consider looking a little more skeptically at Colts coach Tony Dungy before dutifully reprinting every word uttered by the self-righteous prick whose Quiet Strength is so profound that he can’t shut the eff up about it.

Still, I like Tomase, and suspecting that he was the author I read every word of this piece. Which is how I stumbled on the link to a column attributed – again – “the Herald Staff”.

I had to look twice at the link – entitled “Goodell’s discipline didn’t go far enough” – because I hadn’t noticed it when I began the day by scanning the Herald on-line sports page. Before opening the link, I checked again. Nope, nothing. I went to the front page, thinking it may have originated there – nothing. Just one link at the bottom at the bottom of the other uncredited story.

What is the Herald – and the author of this piece – hiding? Weren’t they just insisting the other day that Bill Belichick stand up and face their music? Wouldn’t someone demanding accountability from everone else at least want to put their name on something they wrote? What are they hiding?

Well, here’s just a sample.

“Belichick’s gold has been tarnished. Is this why he was so good? Probably not. But it’s fun to consider, because he’s a jerk.”

A football coach that orders the videotaping of another football coach is a jerk. Gee, thanks Herald. I’d be morally and ethically lost without your steady judgment, which doesn’t have anything to do with who gives you access and who doesn’t.  Now that I know that the football coach is a jerk, maybe you can help me with another moral question I’ve been wrestling with -  what do I call a guy that mocks black schoolchildren as gorillas, and gets wealthy by doing it?

What do I call a guy that drops even a pretense of reporting honesty in his desperate quest to have every camera and microphone trained on him, instead of the games he is paid to cover?

And while you’re at it, what do I call a guy that takes chickenshit cheap shots at people without at least putting their name behind it?

NOTE (9:45 am): Since posting this about 45 minutes ago, I’ve learned that the above article is another of the Herald’s charming ‘behind enemy lines’ reprints they like to run on game days. The guest author is apparently Nick Canepa of the San Diego Union Tribune. Now that I’ve made that clear, notice that I’m not changing anything I posted at 9 o’clock. I’m  pretty secure with it just the same. The Herald can now go back to hiding behind “oh, it was just a problem with our on-line edition” without admitting they were more than happy that Canepa saved them the trouble of writing this piece of shit themselves.

Jessica Heslam finishes up our Herald coverage with a look at the media firestorm surrounding Belichick and the Pats, which concludes with Jack Gringold, associate director of communications at Northeastern, hoping that editors have moved past gratuitous, unattributed attacks on the Patriots coach to focus on the contest. If Jessica is being ironic here, I think I’m in love with her.

Maybe Mr. Gingold ought to pick up a copy of this morning’s Globe, if he’s looking for coverage of tonight’s game.

Christopher Gaspar leads off with a story on tonight’s grudge match in Foxboro. Bob Hohler looks at new Charger coach Norv Turner, who’s following a popular players coach in San Diego, trying to install some much needed maturity in his team. Jim McBride likes the Pats in his weekly scouting report. Gaspar and Mike Reiss combine on a Patriots notebook, which looks at Wareham High (and U of Maine) product Stephen Cooper, a new starter in the middle of the Chargers defense. The Globe duo also notes that the New York Jets, currently tied for last in the AFC East, entertained former Patriots punter Josh Miller this week. Their interest in the punter, of course, is completely sincere.

Reiss has his weekly league notes, where he talks with Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren about the proposal to wire defensive players with the same communications equipment used by their offensive counterparts. Did you know about the wrinkle in the current proposal that says if you lose your wired player to injury or ejection, you can’t wire anybody else? So one team would have the benefit of the equipment while the other will not. Would you have wanted the Patriots to vote for this?

Reiss also has words of wisdom from the beatific Dungy, winner by 31 points in last week’s season opener with the Saints. Guess what? Tony’s not happy with the officiating. Not enough offensive holding calls against his opponent. Quiet Strength indeed.

At the ProJo, Shalise Manza Young says that Bill Belichick knows just what he’s going to get from Norv Turner, and that may spell bad news for San Diego. Shalise likes the Pats today, and says special teams and coaching will give them the edge. Is she being nice to Bill Belichick while surrounded on all sides by spiteful dickheads who wouldn’t think of it? Awwww. I’m kind of involved with Jessica Heslam at the moment, SMY, but let me get your number just in case.

Shalise also spends a few minutes up close with the oft-forgotten Jabar Gaffney. 

Jim Donaldson wonders why anybody would question AJ Smith on his decision to replace Marty Schottenheimer with Turner, when he’s been right about some pretty big decisions before.

In the Hartford Courant, David Heuschkel looks at two closely matched rivals.

Lastly, the Hub bids adieu to Albert Breer, who wraps up his time in New England this week before heading for the Big D and a high-profile gig covering America’s Team. His profile of future coach Mike Vrabel this morning is typical of his studious and thorough approach, which will be missed even more now that we’ve soiled our hands with today’s disgraceful Boston Herald.

On to the game.

College Scout – Saturday, September 15, 2007

logo 915by Greg Doyle
[email protected]

Another Saturday, another packed schedule in the world of college football. In college football, they don’t cheat and steal signals. Unlike Bill Belichick. In college football, they don’t disgrace the game and their fans. Unlike Bill Belichick. In college football, they don’t murder small puppies and torture kittens. Unlike Bill Belichick. In college football, they don’t single handedly ruin the nation’s economy and prevent a cure for cancer being found. Unlike Bill Belichick.

All kidding aside, there are some good games on tap today. In fact, it’s probably the best schedule so far of the young season. Let’s take a look:

Pittsburgh at Michigan State (12:00 Noon ESPN): Pittsburgh comes in 2-0 after last season’s disappointing 6-6 record. They are a bit head coach challenged, being led by Dave Wannstadt, but there is talent there. Michigan State also comes in 2-0 under Mark Dantonio, who is up and coming in coaching circles. Let’s take a look at some of the players:

Pittsburgh DE Chris McKillop (#41): A big (6’3″ 250 lb) outside linebacker type who would fit the Patriots 3-4 scheme. Has played outside linebacker and has excellent size. Is a leader on defense and can rush the passer.

Pittsburgh DE Joe Clermond (#58): Slightly bigger than McKillop and more productive in college, but more of a defensive end type. Could possibly convert to linebacker. Has an impressive 16.5 career sacks.

Pittsburgh CB Kennard Cox (#5): Not as heralded as last year’s other Pittsburgh corner, Darelle Revis, who was taken in last year’s first round of the NFL draft. Cox definitely has talent and could really blossom as a senior. Had a solid season last year, but needs to make more plays on the ball. Very good size for a corner.

Michigan State TE Kellen Davis (#80): Big, tall tight end who has had some disciplinary problems. Has 5 catches in two games and being more heavily utilized in the new offense Michigan State is running. He runs well and has good hands. Could blossom into one of the better tight ends in the draft next year, which will certainly have the Patriots interested.
 
Michigan State LB Kaleb Thornhill (#41): A three-year starter and a pure inside linebacker with ideal size, the Patriots very well could be interested in this team leader who has the ability to play inside in a 3-4. I have a hunch this is a guy they’ll like, so keep your eye on him.

Tennessee at Florida (3:30 PM CBS): This is one of the best games so far, as the Volunteers visit the defending National Champs Florida in The Swamp. Look for a surprisingly competitive matchup. Florida is certainly favored, and it coming down to the end between these old rivals. We looked at Tennessee the first week of the season, so we’ll spotlight a few different players this time.

Tennessee RT Eric Young (#54): It can be hard to focus on offensive lineman, but this guy is worth taking a few plays to see how he does against top competition. He’ll be in the draft, though it’s unclear how high. This is his second year as a starter and although solid last year, he needs to become dominant at this level if he is to be a top prospect.

Tennessee S Jarod Parrish (#19): A backup most of his career, he is getting a chance to show what he can do this year, partly due to injuries. Had only 11 career tackles coming into this season. But he has very good size and could get himself a look with a solid season.

Florida WR Andre Caldwell (#5): Far more talented than his brother Reche, the former Patriots receiver now with the Redskins. Came out of high school as the most heavily recruited receiver in the country and has produced with 119 career receptions. Has 4.29/40 speed. Good size and height. He should be a first rounder.

Florida S Tony Joiner (#19): An excellent player on the National Championship team and the backbone of their secondary. This guy is a blue collar hitter with size and smarts. He should be one of the top safeties in the country this year and if his speed tests out good, a high draft pick who could interest the Patriots due to his size, leadership ability, production and Bill Belichick’s ties to Florida head coach Urban Meyer.

Florida S Kyle Jackson (#3): A big recruit coming out of high school, he was an off and on starter his first two years before not starting any games last year. Has his chance again this season. Inconsistent, yet talented. Can make plays and has a knack for the ball, but also gets caught out of position which is why he’s never solidified himself as a starter. Probably a late round or undrafted type who’ll have to make a NFL team on special teams. A solid season could give him a chance, however. Off to a bit of a slow start though and needs a big game here.

Arkansas at Alabama (6:45 PM ESPN): The first big test for new Alabama coach Nick Saban against the powerful running offense of Arkansas.

Arkansas RB Darren McFadden (#5): Although only a junior, he deserves to be talked about and will likely enter next year’s draft. A dominant, break-away runner with great speed and size. Can bowl you over or run around you. One of the best running backs to come out in the last few years, he is simply electrifying. Watch this guy, you’ll enjoy it. Put up over 1,600 yards rushing last year.

Arkansas WR Marcus Monk (#85): A extremely tall receiver at 6’6″ who considered entering the draft last year. Has 122 career catches and is particularly dangerous around the end zone where his big size and physicality allows him to out jump and muscle smaller defensive backs.

Arkansas CB Matterral Richardson (#9): Started since his freshman year, this tall lanky corner can stuff the run, but has not been big on getting interceptions. He’ll be drafted, but needs to show he can make plays to be a top prospect.
 
Alabama WR DJ Hall (#22): A tall receiver who was second team All-SEC the last two years. Had over 1,000 yards receiving last year and shows really good hands and toughness. Good size. He’ll be a high draft pick and if Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth move on, the Pats may consider this guy high. Watch him, he is good.

Alabama CB Simeon Castille (#2): An excellent corner who should really blossom with Saban’s coaching. He was first team All-SEC last year. Shows good playmaking ability and had 6 INTs last year. Good all around and has a shot to be a first round pick and the direction the Patriots go in if they want a corner. Saban will have input.
 
Boston College at Georgia Tech (8:00 PM ESPN2): In an ACC battle, these two undefeated squads will be looking to really move up in the rankings with a win here. Boston College should get to 6-0 easily if they can pull this one off.
 
Boston College QB Matt Ryan (#12): Big, tall and can move around a bit in the pocket. Smart quarterback blessed with excellent size, and a good leader. Has a strong arm. A very good NFL prospect who could be a first round pick. Was 1st Team All-ACC last year despite being banged up all season and looks better this year.

Boston College T Gosder Cherilus (#77): A big, athletic and strong right tackle who could be drafted on the first day. BC has a tradition of producing good NFL linemen. Has had some off the field trouble though, which may keep the Patriots away.

Boston College CB DeJuan Tribble (#27): A playmaking corner with great speed who has a knack for interceptions and big returns. Plays the ball as well as any corner in college football. Off to a flying start this year and should be a first day pick. A bit small.

Georgia Tech FB Mike Cox (#40): A 250 lb. Blocking back who rarely carries the ball but can catch. A late round choice at best, but his blocking gives him a chance to stick.

Georgia Tech C Kevin Tuminello (#60): Anchors the line. Known for being extremely strong. This three-year starter doesn’t dominate, but is solid and could be a late round pick.

Georgia Tech CB Pat Clark (#6): Former wide receiver adjusting to defensive back. His speed gives him a chance to stick as a corner and special teamer in the NFL. But not experienced enough or productive enough to be anything more than a free agent out of school, more than likely.

Others to watch: Over on ESPN2 at noon, check out Purdue reciever Dorien Bryant. He reportedly runs a 4.24/40 and has 167 career catches. Originally committed to Boston College. Has shown he can make the tough catches over the middle and is not just a speed guy. On ABC at 8:00 PM, an excellent matchup to watch will be USC versus a rejuvenated Nebraska team. There are lots of players to watch on USC and we’ll feature them at some point this year, but keep your eye on Nebraska LB Bo Ruud (#51). Ruud has good size and productivity and works hard. His brother is an NFL linebacker and Ruud would seem a good fit as a Tedy Bruschi type in the 3-4 defense. Late night at 10:00 PM on ESPN, you can see Colorado RB Hugh Charles (#2) as his Buffaloes take on Florida State. Charles is small, but productive. Too small to be a full-time back in the NFL, his elusiveness suggests he could be a 3rd down back and kick returner. But he hasn’t shown a great ability to catch the ball yet and needs to demonstrate that to generate NFL interest.

Sunday Night Blogger Segment Posted

As promised yesterday, here is the Sunday Night Blogger segment on NBCSports.com which was recorded yesterday.

The segments where we talked about Tom Brady as compared to Joe Montana and about Chad Johnson’s latest on-field celebration didn’t make the final cut, but we’re hoping to bring you some of that material next week sometime.

sundaybloggernbc1.jpg

Check in this weekend for College Scout, and the Sunday Links, which promise to be filled with material, lets hope it’s more about the game Sunday night than the events of the last week.

Also, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out the Patriots Buffet Table

Patriots Roundtable – Friday, September 14, 2007

logo 914by the Patriots Daily Staff
[email protected]

This is – by far – the hardest Roundtable we’ve ever done.

“Hard” is a relative term, of course; there aren’t alarms sounding, and we’re not exactly trying to hang on to the back of a ladder truck as it screams away from a firehouse here. Mostly, it’s clerical work – a lot of typing.

But anyway, as far as trying to have some laughs and talk some football, this week sucked. This Sunday night’s home opener with the San Diego Chargers is a marquee matchup on any schedule, and when the 2007 version was first released, the eyes of many Pats fans went right to that second game. Everybody knows the Patriots could have just as easily lost that nutbusting game last January, and with the added dimension of a catty post-game dance dispute, it kind of stood out. After all, there aren’t many 14-2 teams on the 07 schedule. There happens to be one this week.

And I haven’t given ten minutes thought to it.

I don’t know about the other guys, but I haven’t been able to concentrate on anything but what has unfortunately become known as Camera-gate.

And tonight, it all came to a close.

Late Thursday, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell found that the Patriots did violate league rules govering the use of cameras and listening devices for the purposes of stealing signals, and that he would fine the team $250,000 and impose a sliding scale penalty to guarantee the team will lose at least one draft choice.

Coach Bill Belichick was found to be culpable to the tune of a half-million dollar fine.

The Patriots will lose their first round pick in 2008 if they, as expected, make the playoff this season; if they don’t, they will lose their second and third round picks.

Strangely, the commissioner’s decision seems palatable at first blush, in that it seems to fall close enough to the definition of a fair compromise. There’s just enough there to piss both sides off.

The Patriots get whacked pretty good for ignoring the boundaries of what a three-time Super Bowl champion can get away with. I don’t know why you and I should care about the money (compassion? I didn’t think so), as it is coming from people that can probably afford it. In the end, the only thing that should matter to us, the fans, is those draft picks, and that Eric Mangini is a enormous touchhole.

Oh, yeah….I suppose that our team got a public rebuke as stinging as any in recent memory should matter too. But I’m not going to be a fawning drama queen about it; Goodell didn’t send ME a copy of the letter, so I’m going to try not to take all this too personally. If you want to wring your hands and wail, or rub your favorite fanboy’s nose in it, I hope you choke on it.

At the same time, though, even with the draft picks and the loss of bragging rights and all, there was no suspension, there was no basket of draft picks, there was no ridiculous notion that outcomes of games had been altered. In the end, there was no indication that Goodell was unduly influenced by the braying, whiskey-soaked jackals who stumbled outside his door all week and attempted to speak for him though he was not yet ready to speak.

I’m not making the guy a hero. I’m also not making him a villain. One thing I hope the commissioner makes clear in the coming days is if it’s cheating to nick signals without a camera or other electronic device. Because that’s one thing I never understood about this. Was this about all cheating, or just the kind you do in plain view?

In any event, Belichick and the Patriots crossed a line, considerably, one that in the commissioner’s view goes to the heart of fair play. Now they’re all going to pay for it. It began with Belichick’s public apology tonight, but perhaps none of the penalties they’ll face will be as harsh as the one that will call into question – perhaps forever – every move he and his team made during this historic decade.

I can’t think of anything worse than that. That is punishment enough.

It’s a good thing the rest of our Roundtable tried to focus on this weekend’s game with the Chargers, which suddenly takes on even more meaning with tonight’s news. Think of the following as a palate cleanser.

First, reaction on tonight’s news?

Tim Jordan: I m just glad it’s over and we can hopefully move on. It seems harsh, but it’s consistent with Goodell’s actions since he took over as commissioner. One thing that’s curious is the 2 and 3 if they miss the playoffs – that actually seems steeper than a 1. Now the question becomes “was it worth whatever it cost Mangini to do this?”.

Kevin Thomas: It’s a stiff penalty, especially since first round draft picks have been the lifeblood of the franchise’s success. Having the extra pick in ’08 mitigates it somewhat. I was expecting worse, frankly, especially after I heard that the going rate for illegally practicing in shoulderpads is a 3rd rounder. Not F’ing-around League, indeed. Reading the excerpt of Goodell’s letter (from Reiss), I find the language to be a bit cagey and lawyerly. It looks like the Commissioner’s biggest issue is with the “calculated and deliberate” violation of the rules (i.e. Belichick being obstinate and flouting Goodell’s authority). Note that Goodell never says what Belichick did was unfair or competitively dishonest (i.e. cheating)–only that the rules he apparently brazenly broke were directed towards the cheating issue (“designed to encourage fair play and promote honest competition”). I don’t know, am I reading too much into this? Will we ever find out exactly what it was they were doing? Probably not. They’ll probably want it that way–keeping the rest of the league guessing the full extent of what they were up to.

I guess one question to ask is Belichick’s reputation around the league so bad in view of this that we don’t need to worry about another team hiring him away? Gauging the reaction around the media and interweb this week, it almost seems like it, as unbelievable as that would have seemed less than a week ago.

Okay, let’s move on to the Patriots and Chargers. There were some hard feelings when these two teams last met in January. How much should we expect this to impact the game this week?

Bruce Allen: The Chargers still seem to be talking, and putting quotes out there. I expect there to be some emotional displays on Sunday night. But mostly it seems that when clubs take the field, most of this stuff is forgotten.

Bill Barnwell: Probably see a couple of minor scuffles on special teams and that’s it. Both teams realize how important this game is and are disciplined enough to not give out personal foul penalties like so many gift bags.

Tim: This game will have the intensity of a playoff game. National Sunday night game with two teams with bad blood and legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. Even with the motivation provided by a week of being called cheaters with tainted titles, I think the emotional edge belongs to San Diego. They have had this game circled since the schedule as released and had the entire offseason to reflect what might have been if they played smarter. Plus, who can forget the Patriots affront to Shawn Merriman’s celebration dance? There are some things you just don’t do and stealing a man’s celebration dance is probably atop that list. How would you feel if someone stole your dance? You’d be mad, probably mad enough challenge them to a dance off so you could serve them. I am impressed that Merriman had the restraint not to.

Let’s break down the matchups. First, how about the Patriots offense against the San Diego defense?

Scott Benson: This is the first real test of whether I’m going to say “run the ball down their throats” every week. That doesn’t seem like a very good idea against these guys. The Pats threw more than 50 times in their last meeting. Which means you have to deal with that pressure on every down, and it certainly had an impact on Brady last time (3 picks and a hell of a beating). But he was also able to move around in the pocket and make some (enough) plays, even with the pressure, and he has a better team around him now. I think like last year, it will be one of their toughest games of the season and I don’t doubt they’ll take their lumps, but at home, with a better offense, I think they’ll make enough plays to win.

Greg Doyle: Controlling Merriman is a key. They did a great job on him last year for the playoff game. Expect some wrinkles by San Diego to combat that and I am sure he’ll get some pressure on Brady. As long as its not consistent, that should be okay. They should be able to throw versus this team. Running will be tougher, but they have to be somewhat balanced. They can’t just let Merriman and Phillips pin their ears back.

Tim: The new wide receivers allow the Patriots to play complementary offense and take what the defense is giving them. Last week they looked like they had no discernible weakness on that side of the ball and moved the ball at will. Maroney’s speed may be something they try to use to slow the daunting Charger pass rush and maybe we will see Faulk in there more this week for screens.

Travis Graham: It was difficult to judge just how good the Chargers defense was from last week’s performance. On paper it looks like they dominated, but I’d bet even the Jets defense would look good against Rex Grossman. I bet Bears fans breath a sigh of relief every time he successfully takes a snap from center without fumbling it. San Diego is going to be difficult to run against due to their defensive line that is built similar to the Pats’. The 350lb. nose tackle Jamal Williams is one of the best at his position and they have two young studs on each side of him in Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo. The Patriots O-line will have to do a better job at protecting Brady this time around. In my eyes this is the key to the game. If Brady’s jersey stays clean the Pats will win.

Bill: The weakness in the San Diego defense is their secondary. The Patriots won’t have as many matchups to exploit as they did with the Jets, as the Chargers have better cover corners than Justin Miller, but their safeties occasionally get lost and they should have a slight advantage with their wideouts versus any of the Chargers corners. The bigger problem, then, is keeping the Chargers linebackers off of Tom Brady. I’d expect to see a lot of Kyle Brady in the game as a blocking tight end to help out Nick Kaczur, and more Sammy Morris in the backfield.

Dan: This will be a much bigger test for the new weapons, and for the line. I expect Welker will have a big day as a checkdown option. Same goes for backs out of the backfield.

How about the Patriots defense against Ladanian Tomlinson and the Chargers offense?

Bruce: This might be the first game in which the Adalius Thomas signing becomes a huge factor. His size and speed will be at the front of the effort to slow down Tomlinson. I’m looking forward to watching him this Sunday night.

Kevin: One thing that I think plays to the Patriots advantage is that they are getting the Chargers early in the season. Even with the absence of Seymour and Harrison, the Patriots are probably at about as close to full strength right now than they will be all season. The inevitable injury bug hasn’t taken hold yet, and the older guys on defense are still reasonably fresh. Bruce mentioned Adalius Thomas as a big factor. Another one is Junior Seau, who I think can be a big help in slowing down his former Charger mates. There’s a lot that’s changed for the Patriots defensively from the last time these two teams met. Having Thomas and Seau along with Bruschi in the ILB rotation will also allow Vrabel to play at his more natural OLB spot. This is a significant upgrade from the playoff game last year, where Tully Banta-Cain did not have a strong performance at OLB.

Scott: In terms of catching the Chargers at a good time, that may also be true when it comes to LT, who got his first carries of the new year last week.

Travis: I agree with Bruce that Adalius Thomas will be a difference maker this week, but not for the same reason. Antonio Gates gave New England the most trouble in the passing game last year and I think Thomas is the perfect defender for Gates. This time around, the Pats have someone who can match up with his size and speed. I wouldn’t be suprised to see Thomas have his first pick as a Patriot this week.

Bill: There were points early in last year’s playoff game where it seemed like the Patriots had no answer for the Chargers’ offense. Absolutely none. This year, they should be able to do a better job on Antonio Gates with a healthy secondary and Adalius Thomas, but I said the same thing about Jerricho Cotchery last week, and he still had a big game. The front three, though, are still the key to this game for me. They won’t look as good as they did against the Jets offensive line, and they’ll need to get to Philip Rivers to make the linebackers’ lives easier.

Kevin: The last couple of times the Patriots have hosted the Chargers here, they were pretty thoroughly embarrassed by LT and the boys. This will be the first time they get to play the Chargers on the new turf surface at Gillette. Historically, Tomlinson has performed worse on artificial turf than on grass, by a fairly decent margin (4.57 ypc on grass vs. 3.75 on turf), although last year that split was reversed (5.6 on turf vs. 5.1 on grass). Not sure how relevant that is to Sunday’s game, but it is kind of interesting. The flip side, of course, is that Brady and the Patriots generally excel on artificial surfaces, and have yet to lose on the new Gillette turf.

Greg: I am not as impressed with San Diego as most people. I see them as not nearly as talented as portrayed. Their wide receivers may be the worst crew in the NFL. Their line is good, but not great. And I am not real impressed with Phillip Rivers. Sure, he had a pretty good year last year. But at times he seems shaky and immobile. He’ll throw into coverage and get rattled. Obviously controlling LT and Gates are the hard part of facing San Diego. Easier said than done. But if they can keep LT to around 100 yards and not double Gates on third downs, San Diego has nowhere else to turn. I think the Pats will do a decent job of that.

Tim: The Bears did a very good job of containing LT last week, particularly in the first half. It’s pbviously a different defense, but I think the weaknesses that made the Ptriots susceptible to the Chargers last year have been addressed in the offseason. However, it woudbe nice if the Patriots were at full strength. LT has owned them in virtually every game they’ve played. Stopping him is the priorty, but we said that last year and he still ran wild in both games they played. I am more concerned about their defense, but they present many challenges on offense.

Is Norv Turner-Bill Belichick as much of a mismatch as it may appear?

Greg: Slam dunk for Belichick here, but I suppose you have to wonder about the distraction factor given the events of this week.

Bruce: I don’t think so. Turner is a very good offensive mind, who just hasn’t had the horses in his previous stints as a head coach in Washington and Oakland. With this team, he’s going to look a whole lot better. Belichick respects him as an offensive mind, and I think he’ll show this season that he might be a better coach than people think.

Travis: I wonder if this week’s “Water-tape” will rally the troops around Belichick. Especially when players like Vrabel and Colvin get asked questions like “Your critics may say that the only reason you won those Superbowls is because of cheating… thoughts?” That’s got to piss them off.

Scott: That’s not just a this-week thing – that’s a this-year thing. Smooth move, Mangenius. The ticker-tape parade that Gary Myers of the Daily News is promising you will probably be the only one you’ll ever get.

I think the tendency is to underestimate Turner because of his underwhelming head coaching stints, but at one time, he ruled the best offense in the land (with many of the best players, including three Hall of Famers). They lined up 11 on 11, no surprises, yet still won three Super Bowls. Obviously, there’s no more Emmitt, Michael or Troy, but he does have perhaps the league’s best player in LaDanian Tomlinson, and Turner has ridden great players to great success in the past. This is no cakewalk for Belichick and his staff.

Kevin: Substitute “defense” for “offense” and “Banks, Carson, Taylor” for “Emmitt, Michael, Troy,” and this sounds like something that once could have described our own head coach. Not to say Turner is the next Belichick, but he is an NFL lifer who has been given control over what most observers believed was the most talented group of players in the NFL last season. I agree that this is not really a “mismatch,” and whatever coaching advantage the Patriots might have, it’s probably not going to decide the outcome of this one. The last time these two coaches hooked up, in the opening week of the 2005 season, I thought Turner’s Raiders played a much closer game than they deserved to, based on the respective talent level of the two teams, for whatever that’s worth.

Bill: Mike Tanier wrote about this pretty extensively in our book this year, and the short answer is: yes.

Dan: I’m still in awe Marty Schottenheimer went for it on fourth-and-11. Can Norv Turner really be worse than that?

Tim: Hell, Steve Spurrier beat Belichick so anything can happen. This game is going to be decided by the players more than the schemes. Also, I just spent 10 minutes saying “Norv” repeatedly for a throwaway “Norv sounds like something you’d….” line and it’s just not happening. In fact, after this exercise, I like the name – it’s better than its’ cousin “Norm” and it’s probably fun to yell. I’ve never been upset at anyone named “Norv”, but I think it would be pretty hard to stay angry at a guy named “Norv”.

Let’s have those predictions.

Dan: Be more specific. Do you mean with the use of the Belichick Blimp, the predator drones and the computer chip microphone surgically inserted into Nick Hardwick’s tuckus, or without? Our guys are gonna *&#$%@ murder their guys!! 34-10. OK, technically not “murder”. Defeat the well-respected opponent in a rollicking enjoyable endeavor, with good sportsmanship and fellowship displayed by all. Then home for tea. What’s the rulebook say on murder, anyway?

Scott: Considering the circumstances, I’d love to say the Pats will hit the field in a fury and waste the Chargers by 28 points. I would wish for nothing more at this point, unless it would be for them to waste the Chargers by 35 points. Instead, I’ll try to calm down here and say this will be one of the toughest games of the season, but the home field advantage and the Pats new offense is enough to get by, 24-21.

Greg: I’ll go with Patriots 30-16. They are a better team and will force Rivers into some mistakes.

Bruce: I expect a pretty fired-up Patriots team to take the field on Sunday night. Patriots 31-21.

Kevin: After the playoff game last year, I thought the Chargers were probably the better team. I think the Patriots have improved some since then, and after this past week, I really can’t say the same for San Diego. Considering the home field advantage, I’ll say Patriots 28, Chargers 26.

Tim: I do this at work as a self defense mechanism and I have to do it this week – Chargers by 10. They’ve shown that they can win at Gillette, they are as talented as any team in the league, and they have the aforementioned chip on ther shoulders. This week was as bad as I can ever remember, certainly the worst one the Patriots ever had after a blowout win. The only thing that comes close is the Lawyer Milloy week preceding the Buffalo demolition to open the 04 season. I think this was worse though and I think it’s going to show on the field on Sunday. SD is a probably the last or second to last team I’d want to have on the schedule this week. Truthfully, though, I’ll happily read about the loss if it means the end of these cheater stories. I can’t take it anymore.

Pat-hetic

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

The cat seems to have gotten the tongues of Chris Mortensen’s ‘league sources’ as the week has progressed, but that’s only cleared the way for some of the NFL’s biggest stars – including noted clean-livers like Brett Favre and Michael Strahan – to jump in on the hi-tech lynching of Pats coach Bill Belichick.

Also jumping on the pile were Hines Ward of the Steelers and Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio, who just happened to find convenient excuses for their own past failings in the growing controversy.

Lastly, the group that believes it has been most aggrieved by Belichick – the self-entitled, self-important media both locally and nationally – has had ample opportunity to devote themselves completely to what has always been their highest priority: revenge.

Let’s review for a moment what we know.

According to this Wednesday report from the New York Daily News, the security staff of the New York Jets apparently stopped a Patriots video assistant and attempted to confiscate his video camera as he tried to enter the New England locker room at halftime of Sunday’s game in the Meadowlands. League officials and Patriots security were on the scene as well, and according to the report, an argument raged for as much as an hour before the NFL took custody of the camera and the tape contained within it.

Clearly, we can assume the incident resulted in a formal complaint to the league by the Jets. It’s hard to imagine we’d still be talking about this – and that league spokesman Greg Aiello would have made any statement at all – if there wasn’t.

Everything – everything – we think we ‘know’ from that point is based on ESPN’s Chris Mortensen (he of the ‘Vick Will Not Be Indicted’ stories this summmer), NFL Network’s Adam Schefter, CNNSI’s Don Banks and their ‘league sources’, who, when they aren’t floating in the bottom of a highball glass in the luxury suites of the RCA Dome, happen to serve on the league’s Competition Committee.

Aiello made a brief statement on Tuesday night following a Mortensen report that Commissioner Roger Goodell had found the Patriots guilty of recording the defensive signals of Jets coaches and could render a severe penalty to New England as early as Friday. The statement denied the Mortensen report and indicated that no decision had been reached. The league has remained silent on the matter ever since.

Unfortunately, few have followed their lead. Naturally, there hasn’t been a lot of distinction between what we ‘know’ and what we ‘think’, or in some cases, what we ‘hope’. Everything’s been in bounds this week, to the extent that NESN sports anchor Hazel Mae repeatedly referred to the NFL’s “decision” and the Patriots “guilt” in her Wednesday evening reports, though according to the league, no such decision had been yet arrived at, and no such guilt had been yet established.

But ol’ Mae was pretty restrained, when compared to most of her colleagues around the nation, and predictably, around New England itself. And as players began their work week yesterday, preparing for games this Sunday, some of the league’s brightest (or maybe dimmest) lights began to comment on the controversy, and in doing so, joined Mae and her brethren in attempts to save Goodell the trouble of actually taking the matter under advisement at all.

The verdict? Guilty. The Patriots organization is guilty of cheating their way to three world championships. Belichick, the center of the controversy (to the extent that he found it necessary to apologize to the entire organization on Wednesday), is guilty of chicanery over the last three decades. The players are guilty of leveraging an unfair advantage to successes they quite likely never would have achieved without it.

The only thing missing was a threatened lawsuit by the Rutgers women’s basketball team.

It has been pure hysteria, fueled once again by a muddleheaded mainstream media that has been jumping through its ass since the early 70′s just for the privilege of being called ‘Woodstein!” by Ben Bradlee. It has been pure farce, fueled once again by a thick tongued, barely literate mainstream media that would rather be first than be right, would rather be edgy than educated, would rather be recognized than responsible.

It has been shameful, fueled once again by craven opportunists who saw only the chance even a score and excuse themselves from the spotlight that Belichick and his Patriots had once left simmering on them, though through their actions on the field, and not in the court of public opinion.

So let’s take roll call, shall we? Because what goes around surely ought to come around. The media shouldn’t be the only ones schooled in taking a number.

First we have Brett Favre, followed quickly by Michael Strahan, citing serious concern about the ethics of the situation. Joseph Ethics, founder of modern ethics (okay I’m making that up), spun wildly in his grave at the comments of this odd coupling of philosophers. However, having seen their collaborative efforts in the past, William Irony, founder of modern irony, rested comfortably.

Next, we have Hines Ward of the Pittsburgh Steelers, an impartial observer, who immediately contended (for about the fiftieth freaking time) that the Steelers, and not the Patriots, were the real AFC Champion in 2001. Heard it before, Hines. Ward, all football player between the lines, is apparently a sniveling weasel outside them.

Next up is Jack Del Rio, coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who (just a coincidence I suspect) chose to reflect on his 2005 playoff loss to the Patriots and – given what we now ‘know’- raise his eyebrows over mysteriously malfunctioning communications equipment at Gillette. Jack stopped shot of mentioning the delay in that playoff game while league officials labored to correct the problem, before ordering BOTH TEAMS to put away the gear until it could be fixed. Del Rio, once a fearless NFL linebacker, has apparently morphed into a mouse – a simpering, excuse making mouse.

But the opportunists who thrust themselves under halos while dancing on the perceived grave of a superior rival were nothing compared to the media that leapt on this chance to get even with Belichick for never once kissing their ass, despite their antiquated expectation that they are entitled to nothing less.

The examples are too many to mention. My index finger is on the 15 day disabled list from all the links I clicked on (and then slammed shut) over the last four days. The common thread among all of them was the profuse use of “if its true”, and “they could” and “might be” and every equivocation under the sun, though in each case, the qualifier was quickly followed by harsh, brutal judgment that wasn’t qualified at all. In any respect of the word.

One that sticks out, though, was written by former Herald columnist Howard Bryant, now working for ESPN, the home of angry, sloppy drunk ‘league sources’. In a Wednesday column, Howard led the field, now crowded less than 24 hours later, by creating a sidewalk hustler shell game by claiming that unless Goodell came down on the Patriots, and hard, he would forever be branded a patsy of Patriots owner Robert Kraft. In order to be considered a strong and independent arbiter, Goodell had no choice but to dock the Patriots cash, draft picks, and even suspensions. If he didn’t, in the mind of Bryant, he was as tainted as the Pats are thought to be.

Bryant cries for justice while uncomfortably acknowledging, in a all-too-brief disclaimer, that it is still not known what, if anything, is on the tape that now sits in league headquarters. I guess it doesn’t matter, as Howard (who pithily compares Belichick to another Bryant, Kobe, he of alleged rape fame) has already decided the punishment. The evidence, in Bryant’s world, is secondary to the ‘statement’ he demands be made. A statement of fairness. A statement of justice.

Vigilante justice.

Closer to home, leading the way in their own ‘we know what’s best for you, and it damn sure isn’t Bill Belichick’ campaign, are the Seventeen Percenters on Morrisey Blvd., who saw fit to run a front page story, positioned above the fold, about how Belichick’s actions (as defined not by Goodell, of course, but by the owners of the printing press) have affected the youth of the six-state region the Globe ‘serves’. Lots of tales of abject disgust and disillusionment, as you might expect. This is the kind of thing that drives teens to despair, suicide, or even worse…..becoming Yankees fans. You have to watch that kind of stuff – that’s the next generation of Yawkey Way customers we’re talking about here. Who will speak for the children?

Naturally, the Seventeen Percenters summoned Mom, otherwise known as sports columnist Jackie MacMullan, to write a finger-wagging, tsk-tsk of a column that asked, plaintively, why? How about we start with ‘what’, Jackie? As in ‘what’ you know, today, as you write the column?

Ah, why wait? We know he’s guilty, even if Goodell doesn’t. After all, as Jim Donaldson said, it’s all in the delivery. We might be entitled to forgive a lovable rogue like Ron Meyer, regardless of his folksy transgression. But a surly despot like Belichick? Hang him, and while he’s twisting there, remind everyone – he brought it all on himself. He could have given us the access we wanted, filled out notebooks with every juicy, catty detail we craved, the respect we deserve, but instead, he dismissed us. Us! Us, who fill their stadium seats, us, who sell their merchandise, us, who buttress their charitable endeavors. Us, who MAKE them.

And Bill Belichick is the arrogant one.

Finally, I leave you this afternoon with a tidbit from Jessica Heslam, media reporter for the Boston Herald (which hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory here either, with its cartoonish photoshops and screaming headlines), who described the scene at Belichick’s terse meeting with the press on Wednesday:

One smiling, beat reporter sat with his laptop open with a picture of Richard Nixon in the background facing toward the podium where Belichick was speaking, according to a locker room spy.

Nixon, huh? That’s funny, I was just reading the Thursday article from a local beat reporter, and damn if he didn’t mention Nixon too. Come to think of it, he hasn’t always been friendly to Belichick or the Patriots. He seems like kind of a pain in the ass, frankly, one of these guys who seems to always be reaching for something to be negative about. Maybe I should just go ahead and name him, since he’s really made no effort to, you know, get along. What’s my incentive for waiting until I have some sort of factual basis to go on? I might be inclined to forgive this sort of thing – or at least defend the concept of due process – if he had just played ball a little bit. But eff him – he did it to himself. So here goes.

It’s……it’s……it’s pathetic, is what it is.