Pass-Catching Backs, Part II

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

Last week’s column, looking at reception-crazy running backs, noted that teams that used “playmaker” running backs who led their teams in both rushing attempts and receptions won fewer games than the average team. Now, this would seemingly make the Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, and right analog stick in Madden 2004 all quite unhappy, but let’s not confuse correlation with causation and say that having a LaDainian Tomlinson or Tiki Barber on your team makes them worse. Well, not yet.

I found last week that teams won, on average, 7.73 games when a running back led the team in receptions. Drilling down some, I found that teams who employed a secondary running back to lead them in receptions won 8.34 games, over a half win better than the average. I mentioned that playmaker-led teams performed slightly worse.

There have been 79 instances since 1978 where a running back led his team in both rushing attempts and receptions. Those teams won 7.25 games per season, a full-game worse than the John D. Williams and Dave Meggett-style offenses, and more than a half-win below the average NFL team. How could that be? These teams had players good enough to be dynamic threats both behind the line of scrimmage and out in the flat, and they were somehow still crummy?

I was still skeptical. There’s gotta be some advantage to having a playmaker on your team. I thought about LaMont Jordan, who’d been close to the team lead in receptions for the Raiders last season. He had 70 receptions while Jerry Porter had 76, but had a below-average DVOA (Football Outsiders’ metric measuring Jordan’s performance versus the league-average in the same situations — for further explanation, please read our Methods page) because he wasn’t doing anything with them; a lot of the time, he was catching meaningless dumpoffs on third and long and going a few yards, and he rarely, if ever, broke a long gain, leading to a low 8.0 yards per catch average. (For reference, the average running back who led his team in receptions averaged 8.89 yards per catch over the course of the study.) I wondered whether there were certain running backs who were just padding their stats with dumpoffs and other assorted flotsam, while running backs who were breaking big plays shouldn’t be associated with them. I took the ten running backs with the highest yards per catch average and the ten lowest and compare them below.

yards_per_catch.jpg

There are definitely sample size issues here, but a three-win-per-season difference is pretty gigantic. I found that yards per reception correlated with team wins for these 79 players at .29, a decent-sized correlation when it comes to football data; for the larger group of running backs who led their teams in receptions, that number went down to .21. I still wasn’t convinced I’d found the solution, though.

Since the numbers being analyzed here aren’t too complicated — yards, receptions, touchdowns, and carries — I decided to pull out the fantasy point metric again to see if it revealed anything. Just as a reminder, the formula for fantasy points is that used in most leagues I’ve seen and participated in: (((Receiving Yards + Rushing Yards) /10) + ((Rushing TDs + Receiving TDs) * 6) + Receptions). LaDainian Tomlinson’s brilliance on the waggle, sadly, will not be included for study.

The correlation between the 79 running backs’ fantasy points for the season and their team’s number of wins was .38, much stronger than the yards per catch correlation of .21. So now, something had been revealed that seems somewhat obvious: if a player is going to lead your team in carries and receptions, he best be getting a lot of yards and touchdowns, or your team’s not going to do very well.

I wondered whether either was more important, and separated the fantasy points into fantasy rushing points and fantasy receiving points. Fantasy rushing points correlated to wins (.34) higher than receiving points (.21), but that would also intrinsically follow — after all, teams that are losing throw the ball more than they run it, while teams that are winning do the opposite (that is, unless you’re Philadelphia). That being said, I checked whether carries correlated to wins, and for the 79 running backs who led their teams in carries, the correlation was only .21, so it was more so what the running backs were doing with their carries than the fact that they were getting them at all.

As I said at the beginning of this piece, it’s very important to not confuse correlation with causation. With that in mind, I think what history is telling us here is that having a playmaker on your team isn’t a bad thing — you just have to make sure that he’s a good one.

Game Day Rear View - Pats Crush Next Big Thing

by Scott Benson

The New England Patriots took an utterly convincing step towards the NFL playoffs tonight with a thoroughly dominant 31-7 road win over the upstart Minnesota Vikings.

If the playoffs were seeded today (sorry Bruce) the Patriots would be the AFC’s second seed, behind only the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, and again would possess a coveted first round bye.

The Patriots will return to Gillette Stadium to battle the Colts for the AFC lead at the halfway mark next Sunday night.

Tonight, the Patriots were expertly led by the league’s best quarterback,Tom Brady, who directed a spread offense - often with an empty backfield - and completely controlled the game from the opening gun to the final bell.

Brady finished 29 of 43 for 372 yards and 4 touchdowns in one of his greatest performances as a Patriot. Typically, he spread the ball to ten different receivers. He cut the highly rated Vikings D with long strikes over the top, and bled them to death with short underneath throws that controlled the ball, the clock, and the only-briefly boisterous Metrodome crowd.

As good as Brady was tonight, the Patriots defense may have been better.

They did not allow a point. They harassed veteran Brad Johnson into three interceptions (and Brooks Bollinger into one) and just 185 yards in 33 attempts, and held Chester Taylor to just over two yards a carry. Thanks to their suffocating performance, and their searing physical play, the Vikings were never once a threat.

Mike Vrabel led the D’s tour de force, flying from sideline to sideline for 7 tackles and an interception, and veterans like Rodney Harrison, Rosevelt Colvin, and Junior Seau made the Vikings pay for every measly inch they were able to scratch out.

The new look Vikings took the field with newfound confidence, and left the field a whipped bunch, the difference between them and a legitimate playoff team having been made painfully clear.

The game went south for Minnesota almost immediately, as Brady and the Pats took the opening kickoff and marched 86 yards for a touchdown. The key play was a Doug Gabriel catch and run that went for 45 yards on 3rd and 10 from the New England 10. The former Raider angled across the middle, took a Brady throw in stride, and raced all the way to the Vikings 41.

Just four plays later, Reche Caldwell worked his way free in the right corner of the end zone to grab a perfectly placed Brady toss, and the Patriots were off and running.

Later, after an ill-advised Brady 3rd down prayer had been intercepted by Darren Sharper at the Patriots 45, the Vikings made their only competitive run of the night. Minnesota moved 40 yards with a mix of the run and the short pass, and soon were threatening inside in the Patriots 10 yard line.

The Pats D stiffened (that’s what they do), and on 3rd down and goal from the 5, feeling pressure from the Patriots front (a quiet night on the score sheet, but not in the trenches), Johnson threw an inexplicable pass right into the arms of Harrison, who held on at the goal line to stunt the Vikings best scoring chance of the night.

Despite being in the shadow of their own goal posts, the Patriots went right back to the spread and promptly drove 90 yards for a Stephen Gostkowski field goal and a 10-0 lead. Brady stretched the field here again, htting Ben Watson down the seam for 40 yards, and brought the team into field goal range with a deftly executed 20 yard screen to Laurence Maroney.

Already down two scores, the Vikings went to the air, and again Johnson was picked off, this time by Chad Scott for his first interception as a Patriot. The former Steeler showed good awareness by doubling back on a badly underthrown Johnson ball in Patriots territory.

The Patriots were unable to do anything with that one, and they traded punts with Minnesota. But with four minutes remaining in the half, they went on the march again. It began when Caldwell took a short 3rd down pass and turned the Viking defender inside out before racing past him for a 34 yard gain. Maroney took it from there, breaking a rare running play to the outside for 22 more, all the way to the Minnesota 20. Soon after, Brady hit Caldwell again for another 3rd down conversion (this time on 3rd and 10, and again it was Caldwell running through a defender for the first), which set up a 9 yard Ben Watson touchdown (on a nice crossing route to Brady’s right) as the final seconds of the half ticked away. Brady had led the Pats on a 11 play, 74 yard drive, and for all intents and purposes, had finished off the Vikings.

The Patriots had gained more yards in one half than the Vikings defense had been allowing for an entire game. 30 minutes with a professional outfit and they were dead in the water.

The Vikings had one brief moment of hope early in the third, when Mewelde Moore took a Josh Miller punt and blew through several Patriots missed tackles en route to a 71 yard touchdown. For the first time since the game’s opening minutes, the Minnesota crowd had finally found its tongue.

But only for a second. On the ensuing kickoff, Maroney found a seam and busted off on a 77 sprint before finally being tripped up from behind by Artose Pinner. Three quick Brady completions and the Patriots were back in the end zone again (on a sharp 7 yard grounder gathered up by Troy Brown). The Vikings Moment was just that. A moment.

Game over.

The Patriots added another touchdown to close out the third, as Brady got his fourth TD of the day thanks to an impressive play by Chad Jackson. The rookie took a short Brady toss at the Vikings 10 and was nearly knocked to the ground, but he maintained his balance by keeping his feet moving, essentially crawling on his hands into the end zone.

The Patriots receiving corps, so often the focus of dissection and derision since August, had its finest hour tonight. Caldwell tied Watson for the team lead in receptions with 7, and Gabriel added 5 more. Brown and Jackson each found the end zone. They riddled the Vikings secondary and were open on virtually every play. The game plan to beat Minnesota had been built around them, and they were resolute in their response.

The offensive line, reminded all week about the Vikings unstoppable defensive front, protected Brady as well as they had all season. He was sacked three times, but the former Super Bowl MVP far more frequently enjoyed tranquility as he cycled through his available receivers. The line even opened the occasional hole for the little used Patriots backs (Maroney had his 22 yard dash, Heath Evans went for 35 on a quick hitter, and Corey Dillon added a 15 yard run despite only carrying three times).

The defense added four sacks to its four interceptions. and their 4th quarter assault on backup QB Bollinger (three sacks on his first three plays) was stark evidence of their clear superiority. Tully Banta Cain had two sacks and provided consistent edge pressure all night. Chad Scott was another standout, providing close coverage and steady run support from the corner.

There were a few curious moments in the 4th quarter. With the game safely in the bag, Brady remained in the game, and the Patriots continued to whip it around the lot. A long throw to a streaking Chad Jackson, which might have led to another score, was called back by a penalty. After that, Minnesota sent the house, and Brady took some shots, leading some to woinder what he was doing in there in the first place. What was that about?

A short week, and the number one seed in the AFC, awaits.

GDRV Game Day Blog - Are You Ready?

by Scott Benson

I’m just wondering if the Disney Company will manage to squeeze in at least a few plays from scrimmage tonight during the weekly Monday Night Informercial for the company’s diverse line of entertainment products.

*****

Look, I understand that the Minnesota Vikings have gotten their act together faster than anyone expected. I understand they have a steady veteran quarterback, a talented runner, and one of the best defensive lines in football. I’d wager my Super Bowl ticket scalping proceeds that Brad Childress is a better coach than Mike Tice. I understand that, emboldened by ending the Seattle Seahawks formidable home winning streak last Sunday, they’ll be sky high for their first Monday Night home game in five years. That’s fine. They’re 4-2, and clowns are no longer running their ballclub. Good for them.

But I’ll say this - that’s a three-time Super Bowl champion standing on their visiting sideline tonight. The road they took to get there is littered with the rotting corpses of more than a few teams that looked like champions in October.

*****

I’m watching the pre-game show and celebrating the news that Richard Seymour and his gruesome elbow will be in action tonight (watch your step, Rodney). Still, it kind of freaked me out to see Wendi Nix again. Can Greg Dickerson be far behind? Jesus, what the hell happened to ESPN, anyway?

*****

Daniel Graham is out again, missing his third straight. Is it crass of me to wonder if this improves the chances of the Patriots re-signing him? Its not like he’s having a contract year.

*****

Gotta go. Ugly Betty is making over Belichick. Ugly Betty, Thursday nights at 8:00 on ABC. And joining us now in the booth…….

GDRV Roundtable

by Scott Benson

I hate Monday Night Football.

Conceptually, I embrace it. I like that even after 10 or 11 hours of marathon broadcasting every Sunday (who else but the NFL gets away with this?), our football weekend isn’t quiiiiiiiiiiiite over yet - there’s still another game tomorrow night! I find that comforting, in an odd way.

So I guess I don’t really hate Monday Night Football. I just hate that the Patriots have to appear on it.

I’m sure you know why. If you’re a Patriots fan, you know that the bad has far outweighed the good when it comes to the Pats and MNF.

In short, over the past 35 years, the Patriots have a 13-21 record on Monday nights. Winning percentage in weeknight prime time? .382. THREE-EIGHTY-TWO. That’s a good average - if you’re George Brett.

The stories - the indignities - have become legend. Joe Washington, in the rain, no less….”No man can serve two masters”….after another loss in Miami, Michael Madden of the Globe writing, “the Patriots are losers”…..and that’s just the freaking 70’s. There’s almost three decades more.

Christ, the Patriots even killed a Beatle on Monday Night Football.

The good news is that during the Bill Belichick era in New England, the Patriots are a respectable 5-4 as a featured MNF player. The memories are largely good. They’ve humiliated the chest-pounding Steelers on on a banner-dropping, stadium-christening, season-opening night. They’ve used an intentional safety and late Tom Brady heroics to outfox Denver IN Denver. Heady stuff. Yeah, they also got their tired ass waxed by the formerly-dominated Indianapolis Colts last year, but back in the old days, Patriots fans would have been lucky to limp away from MNF with something as simple as a severe beating. Maybe the prancing Colts wounded our regional pride a bit, but at least nobody got pissed on.

Alrighty then, let’s move on. Panel?

Michael Felger seems pretty intent on convincing us that Eugene Wilson is a lousy player. He mentions it five times a week lately. Forgetting for the moment what Felger is up to, what do YOU think of the Patriots safety (who is still hurt and questionable for this week)?

Bruce: Wilson is one of the most low-key guys in the Patriots locker room, so I doubt he and Felger had any sort of tiff. I think perhaps Felger knows Wilson won’t bite back at him, so maybe that’s part of what has made him a target this season. The only change I’ve noticed out of Wilson last year and this is the lack of the huge hits that marked his first two seasons. I think part of that might actually be by design…Wilson used to “launch” himself into players, creating memorable hits, (I recall one one on Marvin Harrison, I believe.) but if he missed, it left him out of position. Perhaps because of injury, he’s stayed away from the big hits and has focused more on just being solid in coverage. Chasing down Willis McGahee last week despite a bad hamstring was an example of what he can do on defense. He may not be making big plays, but he’s certainly not hurting them back there, either.

Greg: He is a good player. He is in his fourth year and has had two extremely good years, borderline Pro Bowl and one so-so year. Contrary to Felger’s analysis, which he seems incapable of doing accurately in any aspect of the Patriots anyways, he was not awful last year. He must just have ticked Felger off or something. He wasn’t great either and certainly had his least effective year. This year, he has been fine. I mean, we’re talking about a defense that hasn’t given up more than 17 points in any of the games he has played in. He is a solid tackler, good in coverage and has good range. What’s the problem? You’d like to see a few more picks as he had his first couple years, but that could be just a function of randomness. Its not like he doesn’t know how to create turnovers. And we’ve seen several times this season where he has run down a ball carrier in the open field where they otherwise may have taken it all the way. That’s exactly what you need from a safety. Don’t trust Felger. He’s really become a pathetic obseverer of anything Patriots.

Scott: The lack of turnovers is the thing with me. He just hasn’t been creating them. After generating ten in his first two seasons (8 picks and 2 forced fumbles in 37 games), Wilson has dropped off considerably (just one interception and one fumble recovery in last 22 games). But generally, he seems like a solid, knowledgeable, reasonably productive player, a guy that’s proven that he can play at the highest level. Pointing out that he hasn’t become Ed Reed seems, well, pointless.

The Patriots defense is ranked 4th in the league in points allowed, 6th in rushing yards allowed per game, 10th in the league in red zone TD’s allowed, and thanks to their 10 forced turnovers, tied for 8th in the league in turnover differential (+4). Is the Patriots defense as good as the numbers indicate?

Greg: Yes it is. And it will get better. They’ve had a few slips here and there, but in general they have plugged a lot of the holes from last year’s leaky defense. I credit Dean Pees, Bill Belichick and the players. They are playing very well against the run, though they can do better. They have, with only a couple exceptions, not been burned by the big play like last year. And they’re creating turnovers now. I like what I see.

Scott: These past few weeks, I’m dying with every third down conversion they give up, and with every battle of field position they lose. Come ON defense, I cry. MAKE A F*****G PLAY! Then I look up at the end of the game and the other team has like 13 points. I don’t know what the hell I’m watching, frankly.

Bruce: Like Greg said, I think this defense is going to get better. In fact, it is a trademark of the Belichick defenses that they get better as the season goes along. I’m looking forward to seeing what the defense is looking like come December.

Ty Warren is off to perhaps the best start of his career. He’s on pace for season bests in tackles and sacks, and what’s more (fun fact ahead), he’s second on the team, behind only Asante Samuel, for passes defensed (4). He’s an ironman, of course, never missing a regular season game. Everyone knows that Richard Seymour is considered one of the best in the league, so where does that place Warren?

Scott: To Seymour’s left? Warren’s not the flashy pass rushing end like Freeney and them, so as far as Pro Bowls, he’ll only get them by outlasting the others. But those of us who watch him every week know how he can blow up the run, and mix speed and power to get into the pocket. You can’t say enough about the guy being there every week, either. You really get the sense this is a guy that’s still getting better, he’s stuck out that much. When was the last time the Patriots had this good of a defensive line? The Sixties?

Bruce: Warren has been getting more attention from the media this year, which is good for him, he deserves to be recognized for his play. I don’t think he’s getting the recognition around the league that is going to get him any postseason awards. If Seymour doesn’t play this Monday night, the Patriots are going to need to see Warren play at a Seymour level. I think he’s up to the challenge. All very good for a guy who had his work ethic challenged by some when he was coming out of school.

Greg: I think Warren is having a Pro Bowl season and has been the best player on defense to date. Now, given the way the Pro Bowl is selected, I doubt he’ll get in. But he really is playing that well and its nice to see. This is one first round pick that seems not to get the accolades as the excellent pick its turned into. But clearly, its becoming obvious the Patriots did a good job with that pick as well.

Everybody in New England noticed last week when Matt Hasselbeck went down with what looked like a painful - and potentially devastating - knee injury. With Seattle now at 4-2, and with Hasselbeck out a minimum of three weeks, is the stock of their first round pick (now, of course, owned by the Patriots) rising?

Bruce: The Curse of the Super Bowl loser! Someone should write a book on it. There aren’t enough sports related curse books out there, in my opinion. I think the pick could be low 20’s, but that’s about as good as it can get for the Patriots. Seattle’s division is just too weak for them to completely fall apart.

Greg: Yes, of course. They were lucky to beat St. Louis the previous game too and could be 3-3. Heading into games without Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander still out and likely not to be at full speed at least at first when he comes back, they are going to continue to struggle. Fortunately for them, they have some easy games that will help them pull out a few wins while they are ailing, but I think the end result is they’ll be a 9-7 or 10-6 team at best. That’ll place the Patriots pick somewhere in the low 20’s. Not too bad.

Scott: I’d say they have a pretty favorable schedule in general, so these guys are probably right when they say low 20’s at best. I can’t say that qualifies as ‘rising stock’. I have to admit I was expecting more when I heard about Hasselbeck - by the way, should I feel guilty about letting out a little ‘whooo!’ when the news came? That doesn’t make me a bad person, right? I didn’t think so.

Let’s pull out the dartboard and blindfolds - it’s prediction time. This week, let’s go with: Baltimore at New Orleans, Atlanta at Cincinnati, Seattle at Kansas City, Jacksonville at Philadelphia, St. Louis at San Diego, and in the big one, Indianapolis at Denver.

Greg (1-5 last week; 20-21 overall):Trying to pull a fast one on me, huh Benson? By my review of last week I picked both the Bengals and Indianapolis. That would put me at 2-4 not 1-5. Nice try pal, but I’m on to you. I call for a Big 8 accounting firm to review the season results and get to the bottom of this GDRV record scandal immediately! Anyways, for this week I’ll go with New Orleans to continue their hot start. They have found a rhythm on offense and their defense is pretty good as well. The Bengals will beat Atlanta. Michael Vick won’t play as well this week on the road. Kansas City beats up on the injured Seattle, Philadelphia rebounds at home versus Jacksonville, San Diego does at well at home and Denver hands Indianapolis its first loss in a big game.

Bruce (2-4 last week; 28-13 overall): Hmmm, Greg’s got me wondering about Scott making up so much ground on me the last few weeks. One week I’m lapping the field, the next Benson is right on my tail. I’m going with New Orleans, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Jacksonville, San Diego, and I think I’ll take Indy.

Scott (2-4 last week; 24-17 overall): Mistakes were made. Now is a time for coming together, in a bypartisan fashion, to look beyond those mistakes and forget they were ever made. Then, and only then, will true healing begin. I ask for your support. Now, let’s see….I’ll take the Saints over the Ravens, the Bengals beat the Falcons at home, I like the Chiefs to prevail at home, Philly too, and for that matter the Chargers as well. I fully expect the Denver Broncos to beat Indy, because that’s just the kind of thing those pricks would do. The Colts might get them if they were at home, but it doesn’t seem likely there in Denver. By the way, you crybabies, the corrected standings are below:

Bruce: (3-3 last week; 29-12 overall)
Scott: (3-3 last week; 25-16 overall)
Greg: (2-4 last week, 21-20 overall)

When the 06 schedule came out, I’m sure a lot of us marked ‘W’ next to ‘Minnesota’, what with those visions of of bawdy cruises and Mike Meathead Tice dancing freshly in our heads. Not so fast, kimosabe. The Vikings actually seem to be becoming a legit outfit under former Philly OC Brad Childress. And suprisingly, the team’s real strength seems to be defense. How do you like the Pats on the road in this intra-conference game?

Scott: Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. I’m thinking of the last time the Pats went on the road to play an opponent that had been playing well. I was convinced that the Bengals would push the Pats around a bit, and as it turned out, it was the other way around. Fool me once. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but I’m picking the Pats to come up big again, 30-14. The Vikes may be on a real upswing, but they were just another lousy team a few months ago. Once the opening adrenaline rush subsides, this rebuilding team is going to find themselves in a 60 minute football game against a bunch of guys that have been there plenty of times before. I haven’t heard anybody playing up that angle this week, so I guess I will.

Bruce: Well, the Patriots are 1-0 when I pick against them this year, so here’s hoping that streak continues. This is a tough game in a tough, loud environment. The Patriots are still coming together as a team, and that Seymour injury couldn’t have come on a worse week, given the strength of the Vikings offensive line. Tom Brady is going to need to have a big day in the passing game, as I think Minnesota is going to make it tough to run the ball. Ben Watson could have a big game Monday. I’m going to have to pick the Vikings though, let’s say 17-13.

Greg: Its a pretty tough matchup and the Patriots are a bit banged up. They could be without key players like Richard Seymour, Stephen Neal and Eugene Wilson. Still, I like the way they are playing and I think they’ll be ready. Minnesota is far from explosive on offense anyways, and the Patriots just aren’t allowing much on defense. I see a 23-13 Patriots win.

Coming down the backstretch…….it’s our Mediot of the Week!

Bruce: Bob Lobel attempting to set the AFC playoff seeds (if the season ended today…) after last week’s game was a bit much. It’s way too early for that, and with Denver and Indy playing this week, you had to at least wait until after this game to even be able to consider anyone the favorite to get home field. There’s plenty of things to talk about without trying to force talk about the playoffs. PLAYOFFS?

Greg: Can we go with Dennis and Callahan for their harping, panic-riddled calls for Laurence Maroney not to return kick offs a few weeks ago? Although we have expressed the sentiment that Patrick Pass return kicks here on GDRV, that was more because we preferred a different style and Pass role of a non-fumbling, hard runner who won’t break one but will do okay on kickoffs consistently. It wasn’t that we thought it was ridiculous to have Maroney back there. In contrast, on Dennis and Callahan, they basically claimed it was the height of idiocy to have Maroney back there and demanded he be removed for a good solid 20 minutes just before the Buffalo game. And now Maroney broke a couple good runs on kickoffs, including one near touchdown Sunday, and they go silent on the matter or their criticism of Belichick for using him in that role. Typical of those weasels.

Scott: Are you kidding? Didn’t you see the Boston Sports Media Watch afternoon update on Thursday?

Editor’s Note: Speaking of BSMW, don’t miss Bill Barnwell’s latest column, also posted on Thursday.

Pass-Catching Backs

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

This week sends the Patriots to the one of this season’s surprise packages in the 4-2 Minnesota Vikings. Well, surprising to me at least — I picked the Vikings as the team most likely to have the 2007 #1 overall selection in the Football Outsiders Season Predictions. While four of the ten FO writers participating chose the surprisingly competent Bills, two others chose the Raiders, who may already have Brady Quinn jerseys in stock. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders sign Jonathan Quinn and have him wear the same jersey number that Brady Quinn does, just so they can start selling that jersey now. Alternately, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders sign Jonathan Quinn because they are, unfortunately for Raiders fans, the Oakland Raiders.

Let’s try and keep things pleasant, though. The Vikings have played above expectations by employing, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic, the third-best defense in football so far this season. Unfortunately for them, it’s had to overcome the 24th best offense in football. One of the strange things about the Vikings offense is that, right now, their leading receiver is a halfback, Chester Taylor. Granted, he has 21 receptions, and two other players have 20 and 19 receptions, respectively, but he’s the leader right now.

I should give a disclaimer here: I love running backs that can catch the ball — for about six straight years, I’d make sure to grab Larry Centers with my last pick in fantasy football. By mid-season each year, whoever’d drafted Rashaan Salaam or Curtis Enis or Anthony Thomas (do you see a trend here?) would need a second running back and would pay far over the odds to get him. This happened every year without fail. What I noticed, though, was that while Centers bumped around from team to team, his teams usually didn’t do very well: he only played on three teams with a winning record in 14 seasons, one of which being the 2003 Pats, where he really played a peripheral role.

With memories of Larry Centers getting dealt for Jerry Rice running through my head, I decided to go back and take a look at teams who’d had their running back be their leading receiver, to see if the teams had anything in common. I also wanted to see if teams that used a running back as their most frequent (if not primary) receiver enjoyed success on a regular basis or struggled, to see if the Vikings’ frequent use of Taylor might portend future struggle.

My hypothesis was that teams that used running backs as their leading receivers did so because they had poor talent at wide receiver and/or couldn’t keep their quarterback upright long enough to throw the ball downfield, resulting in short dumpoffs for little-to-no-gain. I didn’t think that teams were designing their playbooks to be built around throwing to their running back, and as a result, having a running back who caught the ball more than anyone else on your team would be a reference point similar to teams that have been using non-Tim Wakefield knuckleballers in the last fifteen years; the only way that Jared Fernandez or Steve Sparks have gotten innings this decade is by pitching for really bad teams that just need to throw someone out there, so in the same way, the only way these teams could advance the ball even a little bit would be to dump the ball off to their running back for a few measly yards on third and long.

Starting off at the advent of the sixteen-game schedule, I located every team since 1978 (short 1982 and 1987) that has had a running back lead it in receptions. Somewhat surprisingly to me, that resulted in 146 different teams, or nearly six full teams a season. I never realized that so many teams had a running back catch the most balls for a single season! There are some situations in which the same players repeatedly pop up: LaDainian Tomlinson and Tiki Barber, for one. On the other hand, though, there are some weird players like former Falcons running back John Settle. In 1988, he led his team with 68 receptions; no one else had more than 37, and even that was fellow backfield mate Gene Lang! The next year, Lang and rookie Keith Jones had more catches than Settle out of the backfield, while Shawn Collins and Michael Haynes caught more balls whilst split out. To go from first on your team in receptions to fifth is a pretty dramatic drop.

What I found out about the teams is that they weren’t very different from the average NFL team. The 146 teams I looked at won an average of 7.73 games per season, only slightly less than that of the average NFL team (factoring in the effect of ties, NFL teams win a hair-on-Matt-Hasselbeck’s-head sized amount less than eight games per season). So, clearly, using your running back more often any of your wide receivers to catch the ball isn’t much of an impediment to winning games.

Lots of the running backs, I found, were stars who simply got the ball running and receiving a whole lot: guys like Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson, Marcus Allen, and Roger Craig in the eighties, and the aforementioned Tomlinson and Barber in the modern day. The Vikings are employing Chester Taylor in this way, as he has 137 of the team’s 165 carries. Centers, though, never led his team in rushing; the only year he came close was 1996, when he had 116 carries to LeShon Johnson’s 141. I wanted to isolate players like Centers, who were used specifically as the pass-catching backs on their team, in order to see if that disproved my hypothesis further.

Of those 146 teams, 67 of them employed a back as their leading receiver who was not their leading rusher. Those teams won an average of…8.31 games per season, over a half-win per season more than those 79 teams that used a single player to lead them in both rushing and receiving. Could that be due to fatigue on the part of that star player? Perhaps. That’s something I’ll look at later on this season. I was really surprised, though, to see these teams employing secondary halfbacks as their top receivers winning more games than teams who used one all-purpose guy as their featured receiver.

No one, though, holds a candle to Centers when it comes to this situation. He led teams in receiving but not rushing seven times in fourteen seasons, including four consecutive years with some miserable Cardinal teams in the mid-nineties. No other player can match those numbers. Some of the closer ones include:

Kimble Anders, Kansas City (1994, 1996, 1998)
You’ll note from the years above that Anders led the Chiefs in receiving every other year over the course of six seasons. Those seasons, they won 9, 9, and 7 games, respectively. The odd-numbered years surrounding them? They won 11, 13, 13, and 9. Oops. Anders isn’t exactly the most representative of these backs when it comes to seeing his team’s performance improve, I guess. Anders was actually outgained by fellow backfieldmate Todd McNair in 1995, but was in the shadow of wide receivers otherwise. All in all, Anders was a very useful role player on the team — not only did he catch balls, but he was regarded as a solid fullback, averaged 4.6 yards a carry over his career, and made three Pro Bowls. When the Chiefs tried to make him their starting running back in 1999, Anders suffered an injury in the second game of the season (while running for 142 yards against Denver on Monday Night) and went on IR. The next season was his last.

Keith Byars, Philadelphia (1989, 1990, 1991)
One of the most versatile players in the modern NFL era, Byars actually led the Eagles in rushing his rookie season (1986) as well as in 1988 (where he actually also led the team in receptions as well); in 1999, he had 133 carries as Anthony Toney (172 carries) took over for him as the starting running back, and over the 10 seasons remaining in his career, Byars had 287 carries. Meanwhile, Byars was catching more passes than Cris Carter, Fred Barnett (who he tied in 1991), and Calvin Williams as he was the point man on an offense that was 3rd in points scored in 1990 — of course, into 1991’s life, the proverbial Rich Kotite fell. Well, the actual Rich Kotite. The Eagles had double-digit wins each year of the Byars-receiving era.

Ronnie Harmon, San Diego (1991, 1992, 1994)
Harmon’s tenure saw rapid shifts in both system (former BC man Dan Henning being replaced in 1992 by Bobby Ross) and success (from 4 wins in 1991 to 11 in 1992, 8 in 1993, and then 11 again in 1994), but Harmon remained a useful cog in what was a rather successful Chargers offense under Ross. Also worth noting is that Harmon’s catches were more successful than that of most running backs; while the average running back who led his team in receptions averaged 9.15 yards per catch, Harmon averaged 10.4 for his career, and 10.25 from 1991-1994.

John Williams, Seattle/Pittsburgh (1988, 1990, 1992, 1994)
Even weirder than Anders, John Williams managed to pull this feat off for four consecutive even-numbered seasons, and managed to do so on two coasts. In fact, it’s pretty rare that these sort of players lead two teams in receptions but not rushing attempts; only Williams, Centers, and Richie Anderson can say they’ve done it. (Centers, by the way, did it for three different teams, the only person to do so.) Williams wasn’t like Harmon, Byars, or Anders, serving as a fullback who only occasionally saw a carry, but instead was a legitimate running back, averaging 152 carries per season over his first seven years in the NFL. He saw the last six seasons of the Chuck Knox era, and quickly became a significant part of the offense, backing up (the old) Curt Warner and becoming an excellent receiver out of the backfield, averaging over 11 yards per catch in 1987 and 1988.

In 1989, meanwhile, Williams was only one catch short of Brian Blades, which put him into the rarefied air of Centersville; strangely enough, though, his yards per catch dropped from 11.2 to 8.6 and stayed around there for the rest of his career. Williams stuck around for the beginning of Tom Flores’ nihilistic football statement that was the early-nineties Seahawks, but once Rick Mirer began to get entrenched as Seahawks QB, Williams moved to Pittsburgh, where he repeated the feat out of the backfield whilst backing up Barry Foster and Bam Morris on a 12-win team. That year, he outcaught both Charles Johnson and Yancey Thigpen. The next year, the Steelers brought in a similar player in Erric Pegram, and Williams was out of the league in 1996.

If anyone’s similar to Centers statistically, it’s Anders; they both didn’t average very much per catch and they both were given aborted runs as the starting halfback, but stylistically, they were two very different players. In addition, Anders spent his entire career playing for a pretty consistently good Kansas City team, while Centers spent his career floundering in Arizona and Buffalo, finally winning his ring in 2003.

So, what did the research show here? So far, I think it’s safe to say that using a running back more often than any of your wide receivers doesn’t prevent your team from victory. That being said, I think the research about running backs who lead their team in both categories might reveal something interesting about “playmakers”, and might be a sobering thought for Reggie Bush and Chester Taylor.

Second Look: Patriots at Buffalo

A very good performance by the Patriots last Sunday, overall, in their trip to Buffalo. A look back at the film reveals it wasn’t quite the blowout, at least in the first half, competitively as the score suggests. But, nevertheless, a fine win and one in which the Patriots became more and more in control as the game wore on. Buffalo was a game opponent for awhile, but the Patriots were too much for them and imposed their will on Buffalo to cruise to victory. Lets break it down by units.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady had a pretty good game. But I’m not sure I agree with some of the commentary I heard he was more on than any other game this year. I just didn’t see that. He was certainly more on than against Miami, a team he usually struggles with. But he missed some throws. For example, on the fourth play of the game on offense, he missed a wide open Reche Caldwell streaking down the right sideline. That’s a throw he should hit. Later, he could have made a better throw on another play which could have been a score to Caldwell, though it did hit Caldwell in the hands. Overall, however, it was a solid performance. We’re just still waiting for the vintage performance we know Brady has in him. I’m sure its coming.

RUNNING BACK: Not an overly productive day. Corey Dillon ran hard and had two touchdowns. Laurence Maroney struggled a bit with dancing in the hole, though admittedly he wasn’t presented with much. Heath Evans had a good day, including a great block on Corey Dillon’s first TD run. Kevin Faulk made a heads up play jumping on a loose ball in the second half.

WIDE RECEIVER: A pretty good day. Reche Caldwell made some effective catches, including a big one for first downs on each of the first two drives on third down. He was open and could have had some other big plays with just a little bit more precision in the timing with Tom Brady. Troy Brown chipped in a couple catches and Doug Gabriel had a decent day, including scoring a touchdown. Chad Jackson showed up too, with a nice thirty-five yard touchdown which was a well-run route, as well as a 14 yard gain on a reverse on the first drive.

TIGHT END: A good day for Ben Watson with five catches. Some nice blocking from David Thomas as well, including a very smart decision to bypass Aaron Schobel on Jackson’s reverse where he recognized Schobel didn’t have an angle and Thomas moved down field to block someone else instead, even though he had Schobel lined up in his sites and could have leveled him.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Not a great day, but some outstanding play at times. Dan Koppen got some good push in the middle, as usual, on a number of plays. Stephen Neal got out and made some good blocks in space. But Matt Light struggled with Schobel, as he has always done and the line gave up some pressure, particularly in the first half. Buffalo’s quick defensive line isn’t the ideal for the Patriots in the passing game. But overall, not a bad day.

DEFENSIVE LINE: A pretty good job here too. They created pressure on Bills quarterback J.P. Losman. Although he had his moments, Bills running back Willis Magahee was held pretty much in check. Vince Wilfork dominated in the middle, which was the key to the inability of the Bills to really get a ground attack established all day.

LINEBACKER: Roosevelt Colvin had his best day since early in the season, both against the run and creating some pressure in the passing game. Junior Seau was active in the middle and Mike Vrabel had one of his best games of the season, including causing a fumble on a sack. This group appears to be coming together better.

DEFENSIVE BACK: A great day for cornerback Asante Samuel, who had blanket coverage most of the day and another interception. Chad Scott continued his hard hitting good play and Rodney Harrison gets better and better every week as he returns from injury. Eugene Wilson made a nice touchdown saving play by running down Magahee on a shovel pass early in the game on a drive that ended up only resulting in a Buffalo field goal.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Stephen Gostkowski’s kickoffs again were outstanding, a feature of his game that has been overlooked and has been among the best in the league this year. Josh Miller again quietly had a nice day and the coverage was good, save one return, against a tough Bills special teams unit.

A tough game in Minnesota awaits on Monday night next week. Minnesota is a loud venue and tough to play in and the Vikings are playing conservative, smart football. Their defense is really turning into one of the better defenses in the NFL, so the Patriots will have their hands full. Until then.

Game Day Rear View — Patriots Outlast Bothersome Bills, 28-6

by Scott Benson

The New England Patriots today ran their record to a division-leading 5-1 with a 28-3 win over the Buffalo Bills in a game that may have been, as the old cliche goes, closer than the final score would indicate.

Despite the three-score margin of victory, the Patriots spent most of the first three quarters trailing Buffalo in both total yardage and time of possession, as the Pats offense again struggled with the Bills active front seven and their defensive teammates labored to slow down Willis McGahee and JP Losman. Only a couple of late touchdown drives by the Patriots - the inevitable outcome of an afternoon filled with predictable errors by the undisciplined Bills - gave New England the edge in both categories, and on the scoreboard.

Corey Dillon had two early touchdown runs for the Pats, and a once again battered Tom Brady hung in there to throw scoring passes to Chad Jackson and Doug Gabriel that provided some much needed breathing room over the final twenty minutes of play.

The Patriots defense recovered from a sometimes-rough first half to eventually clamp down on Buffalo, closing off the run and forcing Losman into one third-and-long situation after another.

They didn’t so much beat the pesky Bills today - they outlasted them. Which is fine; a win is a win, especially when it produces the second best start of the Bill Belichick era, and an early 4-0 division mark.

The Bills may match up well physically with the Patriots, but they’re still miles away from the possessing the kind of maturity and composure that New England has become known for. Take away the three Losman turnovers (two fumbles lost, and an Asante Samuel interception deep in Patriots territory) and the mindnumbingly stupid roughness penalty that set up Dillon’s second touchdown, and we’d likely be talking about a much different game tonight.

But we’re not. Which is reason enough to look beyond today’s momentary difficulties to appreciate a professional win by one of the few truly legitimate teams in the NFL.

As called for in this morning’s Globe, the Patriots got off to a rare fast start with a six-and-a-half minute touchdown drive on the game’s first possession. It was their first such TD of the season.

Though many of us expected the Patriots to pound the smallish Buffalo front with Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, the initial drive was keyed by the passing of Brady, who countered Buffalo’s quickness with a series of short drops and flips to Reche Caldwell, who was targeted on the quarterback’s first four throws. He grabbed three of them to lead the Pats downfield, where Jackson (a nifty end around for 14 yards), Ben Watson (a 14 yard catch and run on another misdirection play, this one a multi-fake screen) and Troy Brown (a sharp 9 yard grab on 3rd and 8 inside the 20) took over. Two plays later, Dillon carried it home with a slashing run from the Buffalo 8, and the Patriots had a 14 play, 71 yard scoring drive and the early lead.

Losman and the anemic Buffalo offense then surprised by heading back upfield with a drive of their own. McGahee had early success running against the Pats front seven, and on a 3rd and long in Bills territory, he grabbed a shovel pass from Losman and left New England defenders grasping at air as he raced 56 yards to the Patriots 17 (Eugene Wilson saved the TD by running him down from behind). But soon, Losman was fumbling a snap on a 3rd down play (he recovered), and Buffalo was settling for a Rian Lindell field goal. The Patriots had escaped with the lead intact, and the Bills had suffered the consequences of the kind of error that would plague them for the rest of the day.

They’d quickly make two more. Laurence Maroney took Lindell’s kickoff and veered sharp left, where he ran right through a tackle attempt by Buffalo’s Anthony Hargrove. This left the rookie to tightrope the sideline and race deep into Bills territory, where he was forced back inside and tackled at the Buffalo 21. The play was unsuccessfully challenged by the Bills (they hoped Maroney had stepped out, but replays showed he didn’t) and the Patriots were poised to run their lead to eleven with another touchdown.

The Pats went nowhere. Pass attempts to Caldwell and Watson were unsuccessful (an open Watson was overthrown at the goal line) and on 3rd and long, Brady scrambled for his life, first to the left, and then to the wide right, but he could find no one. Finally, exhausted, he gave himself up by sinking to the ground at the line of scrimmage, but London Fletcher-Baker and others - incredibly - crashed into him just the same. Flags flew instantly, and instead of being held to a 40 yard field goal attempt, the Patriots had a gift first down at the Buffalo 12. A grateful Dillon once again took the first down carry and lugged it into the end zone.

The teams exchanged punts before Buffalo set off for Patriots territory once again. Losman began to find Peerless Price and tight end Robert Royal while mixing in runs by McGahee, and he quickly set the Bills up with a 1st and 10 at the Pats 41. Could Buffalo maintain their wits and mount a challenge to the Pats?

Uh, no. On the next play, Mike Vrabel shot in from the quarterback’s right to dislodge the ball from Losman’s grasp again, and Vince Wilfork recovered at midfield. Would the veteran Patriots make the youngster pay for his shoddy ballhandling?

Uh, no. Inexplicably, the Pats seemed to shelve the quick passing game that had set their first drive in motion, opting instead for seven step drops and deeper looks downfield. Naturally, Buffalo was all over it, and Chris Kelsay sacked Brady, effectively ending the threat.

The threat against the Pats defense, however, continued. Led by the jabbing runs of McGahee, and the continued accuracy of Losman, the Bills drove 60 yards to the Pats 23, with the key play a 25 yard completion to Royal, who ran alone through the Pats defense. With two minutes left in the half, Buffalo sought to cut the lead to 4.

But here, the Patriots defense stiffened, forcing a 3rd and 8 on Losman, who in turn forced a bad throw to Lee Evans that was picked off by Asante Samuel. Samuel, who had a solid game, jumped Evans’s out route when Losman locked on him too early, and he grabbed the ball at the New England 13.

That ended the scoring threat, and the half. But despite their offensive quick start, and the rash of Buffalo miscues, the Patriots had not yet put away the Bills.

That task would be left to the defense, which came back from the break to shut down the Bills until the offense could get untracked. They forced three consecutive 3rd quarter punts from the Bills, who were unable to move out of their own territory after statistically controlling much of the first half. McGahee was slowed considerably, and Losman struggled with numerous third and longs. This defensive turnaround proved ultimately to be the key for the Patriots.

Brady and his teammates finally rebounded late in the 3rd quarter, when the quarterback hit Watson for 20 over the middle before throwing a 35 yard beauty to a speeding Chad Jackson, who was running free in the back right corner of the Buffalo end zone. It was the rookie’s second NFL score in limited action, and as he did with his 1st quarter run, he flashed uncommon ability to separate. If this guy can ever stay on the field, the Patriots may have a “#1″ wide receiver after all.

After Buffalo’s final scoring drive could net nothing but another (successful) 40+ yard field goal attempt by Lindell, Doug Gabriel closed out the scoring for the Patriots. In doing so, he too flashed potential for the future of the Patriots receiving position.

The former Raider (did you see Ron Borges’s column today?) started by running past coverage to haul in a well-thrown Brady lob down the right sideline for a gain of 31. Soon after, the Patriots faced a 3rd and goal at the Bills 5, and Brady was again chased from the pocket. Running right, he spied Gabriel (who had nearly been forced across the back line by the coverage) working his way back to the quarterback. Brady wheeled and threw back, seemingly into a pack of Buffalo defenders. But from them an unchallenged Gabriel emerged, turning a sketchy gamble by his QB into an easy touchdown. Brady could only shake his head.

That the Pats were still throwing with a 21-6 lead and 7:00 minutes remaining tells you all you need to know about their game planning today. They had no intention of running the football apparently, as the 23 carries for the backs indicate. Dillon was still brilliant at getting the ball in the end zone.

The quarterback deserves a tip o’ the cap for getting the wide receivers involved this week, more so than any other. Caldwell, Gabriel and Jackson were all given chances to contribute, and today, they did. Troy Brown managed - as always - 2 or 3 key plays. Ben Watson joined Caldwell in leading all Pats receivers (with 5 catches), and he was a threat whether he was striking downfield or settling back behind a screen.

Unfortunately, Brady was hurried throughout, and he took some shots. The Bills sacked him four times, and are responsible for 7 of the 9 sacks the Patriots have allowed this season. Matt Light was brutalized by Aaron Schobel, which seems to happen alot.

Defensively, Junior Seau led the team in tackles. My first instinct is to think he made a lot of these downfield, but in the end, the Pats held McGahee to just 59 yards on 20 carries. He was useless in the second half. Sounds like Junior might have had a hand in that, and by the way, does signing Seau still qualify as a “desperation move”?

I noticed the defensive backs today, including Samuel, who also forced Lindell’s second field goal attempt by swatting away two consecutive passes, including a sweet strip of Lee Evans in the end zone. Chad Scott made a few solid plays in relief, and for all his early completions (including the 56 yarder to McGahee), Losman never cracked 200 yards passing.

Laurence Maroney certainly had the knack for working his way to the sidelines as a kick returner today, which he followed (on two occasions) with a burst of speed that gave the Patriots return team its first real threat of the season.

Of concern are injuries suffered by Richard Seymour (elbow) and Eugene Wilson (leg), neither of whom finished the game. With another road game - against surprising Minnesota - on tap for next week, and games with the Colts and Jets just ahead, the Patriots can ill afford to lose a player of Seymour’s caliber. For Wilson, its a continuation of his recent struggles, and if he’s sidelined, it will leave the oft-beleaguered secondary ever thinner.

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