The New England Patriots scored 17 second half points behind backup quarterback Matt Cassel to easily defeat the Arizona Cardinals, 30-3, in tonight’s pre-season game in Foxboro.

Cassel finished with 14 completions in 20 attempts for 192 yards, most coming in the second half, including two touchdown passes (to Rich Muzinski and Heath Evans). He was not intercepted. He had a little bit of luck (twice the referees missed delay of game penalties, if the on-screen clock could be believed) and a couple of good bounces (twice he got first downs on balls that were tipped to Patriots receivers) but he moved the team consistently and closed the game with a nice 4 minute drive to run out the clock. His TD to Muzinski - coming early in the fourth quarter to close out the scoring - was a beauty, as Cassel eluded a Cardinals rush on 3rd and 5 from the Arizona 15, before finding the rookie floating across the back of the end zone for the score. If there’s any complaint with Cassel tonight, its that he was again very quick to pull down the ball and run. But the Cardinals managed to keep the heat on Patriots quarterbacks all night, even with their second team defense, and often, running was Cassel’s only option.

Bam Childress followed up his strong first half by grabbing a tipped Cassel pass on 3rd and 12 and weaving 26 yards for a first down and near touchdown. It was the key play in the drive that produced Muzinski’s score.

The Pats offense, which has now scored 53 points in two games, totaled nearly 500 yards on the night.

The Patriots defense held the Cardinals to just 150 yards of offense, and by the end, they seemed in position to intercept nearly every ball thrown by mop up guy John Navarre. Eric Warfield had his first pick as a Pat, but went on a ridiculously over the top return attempt that resulted in a fumble, and a fresh set of downs for the Cards.Know when to fold ‘em, Eric. Tebucky Jones dropped a sure interception on the next play, and James Sanders muffed another later, but even with the Pats miscues, the Cards could not score. Mostly because they rarely had the ball. The Pats won the time of possession battle by more than a 2 to 1 margin.

Arizona logged just 96 yards on 31 pass plays. The Cards gained just 55 yards on the ground, a stark improvement over last week’s 200 yards allowed to Atlanta, but Arizona only carried the ball 11 times all night. When they did, they averaged more than 4 yards.

Eric Alexander had the special teams play of the night, forcing a Michael Spurlock fumble with a solid hit on a Cards kickoff return, which was picked up and advanced to the Arizona 10 by Randall Gay. On the next play, Cassel hit Evans for the score, giving the Pats 10 points in 13 seconds (coming, as it did, just after Gostkowski’s third field goal that cappped a seven minute, 78 yard drive in the third).

The rookies we highlighted in our pre-game report had a spotty night. Garrett Mills had but two catches, and while Patrick Cobbs ran and caught the ball well again, he fumbled away on a running play just as the Pats were entering Arizona territory in the fourth. Willie Andrews fumbled a punt inside the Pats 20, and dropped a wide open pass from Cassel that could have been a big gain. But the rookie DB/KR showed enough to get another chance at receiver, I expect. He got himself sufficiently open on at least two occasions, but he’s got to catch it. But it would be more important that he not fumble any punts inside the 20.

Of our spotlighted rookies, only TE David Thomas shined, as he took a beautiful Cassel throw down the left seam for a 32 yard gain on the game’s final possession. Thomas worked himself completely free in the Arizona secondary and hauled in the well thrown ball in stride.

Stephen Gostokowski finished the night a perfect on all six of his kicks (3 field goals and 3 extra points) as Martin Gramatica looked on.

Marshall Faulk is on the NFL Network wrapping up the game and predicting that Miami will win the AFC East. Go ahead, Marshall, just stand up and admit it: “Look, I hate these guys!. And I always will!”

Starters on both sides of the ball played the first 30 minutes as the Patriots took a 13-3 halftime lead over the Arizona Cardinals tonight at Gillette.

Tom Brady - though being replaced briefly by Matt Cassel in a planned, ‘game-situation’ drill - led the team on three scoring drives, the last a 15 play, 86 yard drive that was capped by a 5 yard Corey Dillon touchdown run with 1:20 left in the first half.

Kevin Faulk has been the offensive star for the Pats, with four first downs to his credit. Twice he caught third down conversion passes to set up a Stephen Gostkowski field goal to make the game 6-0, and on the team’s only touchdown drive of the half, Faulk took two third-and-long draw plays to set up Dillon’s score. He has yet to fumble this evening.

It hasn’t all been easy for the Pats offense; the Cards’ strong defensive front has pressured and knocked around Brady, and definitely gotten the better of the Pats’ first team o-line, parfticularly the closer they got to the Cardinals’ goal line. Brady drive the team twice inside the Arizona 20 but could not advance further, settling for field goals on both.

Ben Watson leads the Pats with 4 receptions, and Bam Childress has been a standout with two catches for nearly 50 yards. One was a difficult, twisting 29 yard grab of a Brady lob down the right sideline, after the Pats QB had executed a convincing pump fake. The second was a heady adjustment on a third and short pass play, which netted 20 yards on the Dillon TD drive. Is it that long of a shot that Childress could contribute? Laurence Maroney has once again been impressive in the backfield, cracking a 12 yard run on his first carry, but Dillon, despite his first rushing TD of the year, has sometimes struggled for room to run.

The defense forced two Arizona punts and ended another Cardinals drive when Asante Samuel intercepted a pass in his fifth straight game. It was a sweet play by Asante; matching Larry Fitzgerald stride for stride down the left sideline, he won position on a Kurt Warner lob and extended his consecutive game streak. The Pats almost had another pick on the Cards next play from scrimmage, but a Barry Gardner grab of a tipped ball was called back when Ellis Hobbs was nabbed for holding.

As Mike Reiss predicted before the game, Eugene Wilson is back at his safety spot next to Artrell Hawkins. Tully Banta-Cain, playing the right outside linebacker spot, has had a couple of impressive rushes on Warner. Disappointingly, Matt Leinart made his pro debut on Arizona’s last possession and drove the Cards 50 yards to set up Neil Rackers and break the Pats shutout.

Gostkowski is handling all the kicking tonight, either by plan or by circumstance (some have claimed competitor Martin Gramatica tweaked something this week), and has hit all three of his kicks and even knocked a kickoff in the end zone.

Well, it’s like the Boston Globe’s Own Carrot Top likes to say - at least we have the Patriots.

Of course, he says that like he’s just survived a plane crash in the Andes, and he’s looking around thinking, “well, at least we can eat the ones who didn’t make it.”

It’s great to have your support, Dan. And don’t e-mail Bruce.

In about an hour, the Patriots will kick off a two-week pre-season homestand, and we’ll have the chance to see what strides - if any - New England has made since last week’s opening loss to the Falcons.

Can the Patriots sustain the running attack that was so impressive (and productive) in Atlanta? Can rookies like Garrett Mills, Patrick Cobbs and Willie Andrews continue to impress? Will Matt Cassel smooth out last week’s rough edges and keep the chains moving consistently? Is Bill Belichick right to be optimistic about his secondary? Will anyone step up at wide receiver, or in the middle of the defense?

In tonight’s game, the Pats face the Cardinals in Arizona’s first trip to Foxboro in nearly ten years. On September 15, 1996, the Cards fell to the Pats, 31-0, in a regular season game played in the old stadium. The last time the two teams faced off in the pre-season (almost 15 years ago to the day, in Sun Devil Stadium), it was all Arizona, 46-0.

So what’s the chance we see a shutout tonight?

As noted above, the wide receiver position will likely remain under in the microscope this evening. Things are looking bleak on the perimeter, with no Chad Jackson or Deion Branch, but back inside, there’s reinforcements on the way. Four Pats rookies - Mills, Cobbs, tight end David Thomas and receiver Erik Davis - combined to catch 11 passes last week. Mills and Thomas already look like players that will develop into solid contributors. While Cobbs seems like a long-shot in the crowded Pats backfield, he could surprise if he continues to make plays like last week’s TD catch and run. He’ll be interesting to watch tonight - can he keep it going?

Anyway, the point is that there may be a void, but there may also be people ready to fill it.

I’m sure we’ll get a peek at Junior Seau tonight. In fact, I half-expect him to come running out with the team at 8:00, fully-dressed and in the starting lineup (the plan is for next week). I always thought Junior kind of liked the camera, actually. He always seemed to have his helmet off for some reason, with his AC Slater hairdo and Little Richard mustache. And then, of course, he signed with the Dolphins, which is crossing the line where I come from. I’ve hated people for much, much less, I tell you. But that’s all over now, and Junior and I are ready to march into the future together, committed to winning a championship. Watch the hat-popping, though. Pretty sure he still does it.

Streak to watch tonight? Asante Samuel has intercepted a pass in the last four Patriots games (1 regular season and 2 playoff games last year, and then again last week). I started out the pre-season burying this guy and now here he is, back with the first team and looking stronger by the day. Belichick made note of the secondary’s improvement this week, and right now Samuel looks like one guy who might be getting better.

Naturally, this will be Arizona’s first game in Gillette Stadium. The Cards and Pats have met once before in the Bill Belichick era, a 23-12 New England regular season win at Arizona in 2004. Speaking of Branch, that was the game where he went down for 7 weeks after an injury on the final play of the first half.

The game will be broadcast on the NFL Network, and I’m only mentioning this because the play-by-play guy’s name is Spero Dedes. If this isn’t the first game you’ve heard Spero call, I’ll eat my hat.

Just after we posted our weekly roundtable tonight, we learned that the Patriots seem on the verge of signing the recently retired Junior Seau to play middle linebacker for them in 2006. In a strange development, Mike Reiss has Seau’s old team, the San Diego Chargers, basically confirming the story.

It’s another one of those Patriots acquisitions that just surprises the hell out of everybody. Seau, with whatever he has left, certainly tosses an unexpected wild card in the shuffling deck that is the Patriots linebacking situation. He’s always been a player that has elicited varied opinions (ask Pete Sheppard, or for that matter, me, I guess), and he’ll have to transition to the inside after playing most of his career on the edge.

The real question is if, and how much, this relates to Tedy Bruschi, and if this possible deal with Seau means that Patriots officials now expect Bruschi to miss a portion of the season with his broken wrist.

I used to like those episodes of M*A*S*H when Sherman Potter or somebody would announce they were “BUGGING OUT!” They’d have to throw the camp, operating room and all, into the back of a horse and a half dozen jeeps and move it further from the line. Hilarity would inevitably ensue. One time, I think they even bugged out in a complete circle. I tell you, those folks at the Hallmark channel don’t get enough credit for running those M*A*S*H blocks eight days a week.

Anyway, I guess you could say the Patriots BUGGED OUT on Thursday, officially closing the portion of the pre-season known as ‘training camp’. I guess this means we’re not invited to watch practice anymore.

The Patriots will open their 2006 home schedule on Saturday night when the Arizona Cardinals come to Foxboro. Albeit for a practice game, but still.

New England comes off a last-second loss to the Falcons in Atlanta, where they opened the pre-season last week. Since then, we’ve alternated our regularly-scheduled worrying jags between the wide receiver, the backup quarterback, and the linebacker positions.

Not here, mind you. This is the most ridiculous of all the ridiculous Patriots fanzines, and nobody’s going to take that away from us. Not while I’m alive.

Let’s ask the boys to weigh in on the latest happenings in Patriots-land.

Reche Caldwell had an inauspicious debut for the Pats, catching only one pass and dropping a potential touchdown from Tom Brady. This, predictably, had the Usual Suspects wagging their tongues about Caldwell and the Pats receiver position as a whole. With the pre-season half over, are they jumping the gun, or ahead of the curve?

Bruce: Well, before the guy had ever even taken the practice field with the Patriots, informed observer Gary Tanguay emphatically stated that Caldwell was a STIFF. The fact that many message board posters and other veteran media observers have repeated that statement only convinces me more and more that these guys are all way ahead of the curve. It is clear to me that Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli have lost their ability to scout players. Obviously the only time they saw him play was when he caught a TD against DUANE STARKS last season. They thought Starks could play too. Need I say more? Cut him now. He can’t play. D.U.N. (Note: If you didn’t detect the sarcasm in this response then perhaps I’m the one who is D.U.N.)

Greg: Jumping the gun. We don’t know what Caldwell will be. But one “dropped” pass, which was a fairly difficult catch in that it was rifled thru traffic in a tight area, does not answer much. All receivers occasionally have plays like that. If one goes back and remembers what the play before Champ Bailey took a Tom Brady pass 100 yards for a touchdown on an interception return in the playoffs last year, it was a much more egregious drop by David Givens near the end zone. The questions about Caldwell will only be answered over time. There has been more good performances from him this summer than bad. As usual, the ones incapable of true analysis jump to rash conclusions so as to appear knowledgeable.

Scott: I don’t know what Caldwell is going to do, and neither do they. I’m encouraged that Tom Brady’s talked him up, but we won’t know for awhile whether he can take the next step in his career and produce consistently. I don’t argue that the current group of receivers (especially when you exclude Chad Jackson and Deion Branch, who for one reason or another have been non-entities so far) is a big step down from prior groups. But does that automatically mean the Patriots will have a poorer, less-effective offense? Maybe this year’s playmakers will line up at the running back and tight end. The Patriots have always been able to adapt to changing circumstances, and maybe the circumstance that’s changing now is a transition back to a interior-focused, run-oriented, ball control attack. Maybe that’s what all the tight ends and the first-round running back are about. And I would be remiss in not mentioning the fact that Branch will return at some point (only sheer lunacy will dictate otherwise), as will Jackson.

Matt Cassel also struggled at times and while he emulates Brady, he was a poor imitation of him while in the pocket. He was jittery and impatient, almost never set and comfortable, and as a result often had a hard time hitting the proverbial Broad Side of The Barn. Television and radio personality Michael Felger suggested it’s ‘time to panic’ about the Patriots backup quarterback position. Is Felger on to something, or just on something?

Greg: It’s not time to panic. He’s not Tom Brady and not ready to be Tom Brady. But then again, neither is any other quarterback. Cassel is only in his second year and has improved. Just not at the rate Brady did. He can be an adequate back up and continue to improve such that eventually, he may be an excellent quarterback.

Scott: He’s on something, and it’s called the radio. We’ve talked about this before. I think what gets me about the Cassel thing this week is that people seemed to be judging him on that one performance, as if it was the first time they’d seen him. It was the first time they’d seen him as The Backup Quarterback, I guess. I couldn’t help thinking back to New Year’s Day - in a regular-season game, no less - when Cassel seemed to handle himself pretty well. So well that people couldn’t believe he would miss Bam Childress on the game’s final play - unless, of course, he was trying to (wink, wink). What, his struggles last Friday cancel that out? Baloney. Right now is exactly when he should be experiencing real-time ups and downs. Guess what - he’s a young quarterback, and inexperienced, and some things in life just take time, son. Time, apparently, that some people don’t have. Tough.

Bruce: Again, when an esteemed member of the fourth estate tells me it’s time to panic, who am I to argue? It simply doesn’t matter that Cassel has about as much experience at quarterback as I do. It is impossible to think that he can get better, or improve his footwork, or learn to read live defenses and coverage better. Just won’t happen. After all, what is the first preseason game for? Everyone knows that the sole purpose of the very first preseason game every year is to pass irrevocable judgment on who can play and who can’t. I’m just thankful that I have such experienced and skillful talent evaluators such as Mike Felger to guide me in my thinking on such critical matters.

The Falcons ran for damn near 200 yards on the Patriots last week, which instantly brought attention (not the good kind) to the team’s allegedly-thin linebacking corps, particularly its middle men. Monty Beisel in particular stood out (also, not in the good way). During practice this week, Beisel was banished to second unit as Mike Vrabel moved back inside and Tully Banta Cain replaced Vrabel on the outside. What does this signal? Is this more moving-around for flexibility’s sake, or could Vrabel be back inside to stay, even after Tedy Bruschi’s return?

Greg: Beisel was actually on the second unit before last week’s game. He didn’t start. I personally didn’t see him as the problem in the Falcons game, but clearly he hasn’t earned a starters job. There are obvious depth issues at linebacker. I can agree with that. What I can’t agree with is it won’t be better as the season gets rolling with other acquisitions, Tedy Bruschi returning and the players already here improving. Some did show flashes like Tully Banta-Cain, Jeremey Mincey and Pierre Woods.

Bruce: It means this team is heading for 3-13, obviously! Belichick is just throwing people out there, desperately trying to find something that will work. OK, this shtick isn’t working for me. I can’t play the role of an irrational media sycophant any longer. It just feels so dirty. Ok…Seymour didn’t play, Bruschi didn’t play, when they play the run defense will be MUCH better. As far as who will be next to Bruschi, Vrabel might find himself inside quite a bit more, especially since the club seems to have several young pass rushing outside linebacker candidates. Barry Gardner might also be ahead of Beisel on the depth chart, and there is always the possibility of a trade. It was reported this week that Scott Pioli was hanging around his father-in-law Bill Parcells down in Dallas, who might have a spare inside linebacker that could be had as part of a transaction.

Scott: OK, so Greg was clearly more observant than I, and he’s right: Beisel was demoted to second unit (after starting camp teamed with Tedy Bruschi) last week. The fact of when it happened, though, isn’t as important as that it happened. Hey, a year-plus into his tenure here, the guy is trailing Barry Gardner and Don Davis on the depth chart (no disrespect intended, Barry and Don). You know this - I’m usually the last guy to give up on anybody (I am just waiting for Duane Starks to have a two-pick game this season so I can rub your noses in it),.but can you explain to me why the hell should I believe at this point that Monty Beisel can play? But I’m excited by this move of Vrabel this week, and I already hope it stays that way. I just love the idea of an inside team of Bruschi and The Ohio State alum, for their brains and brawn. Just doesn’t seem like an easy group to push around, and even more, is there a better place for your core leaders than in the middle of the field? And Belichick says Tully Banta-Cain is improved, so let’s see it.

If you could keep only one rookie or UDFA based on the results of last week’s game, who would it be? And no fair picking Maroney. That’s too easy.

Bruce: Willie Andrews. Finding someone who can fearlessly field and return all kinds of kicks as he demonstrated he could is rare. He was also in on other special teams activities and we find out later in the week that the coaching staff is giving him some reps at wide receiver. Not bad for a seventh round selection. Pierre Woods seemed to be in on a lot of plays as well.

Greg: Well, defensive lineman Santonio Thomas was an UDFA, so I’d pick him. But he was on the practice squad most of last year, so perhaps you mean right out of college. I liked what I saw out of Ryan O’Callaghan. He looks like he could be a 5th round steal early on. I’ll go with him.

Scott: Of all the questions to be batting third on. Bruce stole my guy. But no worries - the ace up my sleeve is rookie utilityman Garrett Mills. Yeah, he beat up on a bunch of second and third stringers last Friday, but I put it to you this way: isn’t dominating second and third team players kind of what you’d expect from your first-team guys? Whether its as fullback, h-back, tight end or slot receiver - this guy is going to help the Patriots move the chains this fall. That’s already looking like a hell of a draft pick. Keep your fingers crossed that it is.

Let’s give the big Mediot of the Week wheel a spin.

Greg: So many choices, so little time. Ring me up for Andy Gresh of the WBCN pre-game show. Nothing specific, it’s just that his screeching, moronic analysis is awful to listen to. His attempts to sound football-savvy by working in little phrases and anecdotes that have little to do with anything and are obvious covers for a moron with nothing much to say, earn him the award for this week.

Scott: Dr. Z, hands down. No, not the weird car guy from the commercials, but the other Dr. Z, Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated. This week he sent a nice bottle of whine to new Commissioner Roger Goodell, in the form of an ‘open letter’ in his August 15th on-line Inside the NFL column. And guess what pressing issue ol’ chrome dome wants the new commish to tackle first? Those tight-lipped New England Patriots. You know, the guys that make life so difficult for the those pampered aristocrats of the oh-so-self-important Fourth Estate. Those awful, paranoid, self-important Pats. Naturally, the egghead wants Bill Belichick to be more forthcoming with his injury reports and his assistant coaches. It wasn’t so much that he compared Belichick to Joseph Stalin (he did, though); it was that in presenting his case to Goodell, Zimmerman rationalized that he and his brethren were entitled to this information because “we represent the fans.” Oh, for crissakes. Can I tell you just how freaking tired I am of these gasbags floating that old saw? Look - Paul Zimmerman represents Paul Zimmerman and that’s as far as it goes. I didn’t just fall off the turnip truck, baldy. Paul Zimmerman isn’t upset because information isn’t being provided to the fans - its because people aren’t hitting their knees the minute he walks inside the ropes. Consequently, he may have to work as hard as Mike Reiss to find the story (a thought which, I gather, is rather unappealing to a fossil like Zimmerman), instead of strolling in there like he’s parting the Red Sea. When will one of these guys just admit that it’s all about them? Never. But wrapping himself in the ‘fans’ flag to buffer his petty bitching is about as craven as it gets.

Bruce: Put me down for Dan Shaughnessy. His pathetic shots at the franchise as we went to press last Friday were mind-numbingly stupid. The day before, he had suggested that the team was jealous of the Red Sox. Then on Friday, he cited the Patriots 500 page media guide as a sign of the organization’s ” paranoia/self-importance” - The Red Sox have a 660 page media guide of their own. He also pulled a page out of the Kevin Mannix playbook when he complained about NFL preseason games being a scam.

Ah, being the new guy. My name’s Bill Barnwell, and welcome to the first in what will be a weekly series of pieces covering the Patriots through the critical lens of Football Outsiders. For those of you not familiar with the website, our aim is to bring objective analysis to football; to provide a cliche - and assumption-free look at football through research. The most recent version of our yearly book, Pro Football Prospectus 2006, was recently released and can be purchased on Amazon.com. The creation of the website was announced in these very pages in 2003, and Bruce Allen has previously contributed to the site. Our work can be read both on our website, Foxsports.com, and the New York Times, among others.

I really wanted to write a column weighing the potential replacements for Adam Vinatieri in this season’s Papa Gino’s commercials (Ken Walter? Jonathan Sullivan? Diet Pepsi Machine? Would that even be allowed?), but without any real research, rhyme, or reason, this is going to be column #8,473 in a series of 11,142 on the Deion Branch conundrum. Hopefully, I can offer a little bit of a different perspective on whether Branch is worth that shiny new deal he wants.

Our metrics have seen Branch out to be a relatively effective wide receiver. The table below shows Branch’s performance according to our two primary statistics. DVOA (explained here) measures how well Branch does versus an average player in the same game situation. Meanwhile, DPAR (explained here) measures the total number of points scored due to plays where Branch caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level WR in the same game situations.

What you see here is a player who took a leap forward in his third season, where the impact of his performance (as measured by his high DVOA, fifth in the league) was muted by the fact that he was injured (hence his 35th place ranking in the league for DPAR). Last year, Branch graded out across the board as one of the top receivers in the league.

A concept familiar to those who have read Bill James’ work in baseball is that of similarity scores, the idea of which is to find the players who, historically, are the closest comparison to a modern player. Essentially, I’m going to use the similarity scores to point out the career paths displayed by the five receivers whose numbers over three seasons had the most in common with Branch’s 2003, 2004, and 2005 season stats (as seen at the bottom of the table above). I’ll be presenting their numbers that link them to Branch, their numbers for the season immediately following (so, then, what we might expect to see from Branch in 2006), and then for the three year period following (what we might expect to see from Branch in the ‘06, ‘07, and ‘08 seasons, after which point the Patriots would probably want to let Branch sign elsewhere). All numbers from seasons afflicted by labor problems are pro-rated.

1. Henry Ellard

In this year’s Pro Football Prospectus, we namedrop Ellard as the guy who Branch is most comparable to - the similarities, to be honest, are a little eerie. They’re both undersized (Branch is listed at 5′9″, Ellard at 5′11″). They both went to a mid-major (Branch to Louisville, Ellard to Fresno State). They both also missed about half a season due to injury (Ellard’s was in his fourth season, Branch’s his third - they were both, however, 25 at the time). Neither was a touchdown machine in their first few seasons.

As you can see, if Branch was to continue along the same path that Ellard did, the contract terms he’s asking for would be very acceptable. Ellard broke out in 1988, leading the league in receiving yards, and nearly equaling his touchdown haul over the last three seasons. His numbers remained high over the next few years; they decreased in his ninth season, when he only had 64 catches and 3 touchdown receptions, and went down even further to 47 catches and 3 TD receptions the year after. What makes Ellard really special, though, is his revitalization at age 33, when he had three consecutive 1000-yard seasons with the Redskins.

2. Henry Marshall

Marshall, who played for Kansas City his entire twelve-year career, was an underrated receiver. His best year, 1982, consisted of only nine games because of the strike, so his unadjusted numbers (40 catches for 549 yards and three touchdowns) don’t look particularly fantastic. He also missed four games due to injury in 1981. That being said, the increase in Marshall’s performance, while reasonably substantial, did not compare to Ellard’s.

3. Jerry Porter

Hey, speaking of disgruntled wide receivers… Obviously, we only have Porter’s numbers for the first year after his seasons similar to Branch, so we can’t form much of a projection for Branch’s future based upon Porter. Like Branch and Ellard, Porter suffered an injury in the second of the three analyzed seasons that kept him out for around half the year.

4. Isaac Bruce

Bruce, to continue the pattern, suffered an injury in 1998 that limited him to five games. Bruce’s career path differs from everyone else we’ve looked at so far in that he was already a star: his second season, where he caught 119 balls for 1781 yards, was the best of his career.

5. Cris Carter

Carter is the first WR in the study to change teams over the period of our analysis - he was cut by the Eagles during the preseason in 1990 because of his substance abuse problem. While the Vikings claimed him and used him that season, he only had 27 catches all year as a reserve receiver, which is one of the reasons why his numbers are comparable to other players who saw a hit in their numbers during the second analyzed season due to injury. Carter took off in 1993, with the first of eight consecutive 1000+ yard seasons for the Vikings.

Finally, let’s see how Branch’s averages for the next three years would look were his stats to improve at the same rate as each of these five players’ did (while we can still compare him to Porter, the fact that we only have one year of data to work with means that link is a little more tenuous):

If Branch’s performance were to increase at the average rate that his most comparable compatriots did, then, he would be averaging 91 catches, 1152 yards, and 6 touchdowns a year for the next three seasons. It is worth noting that, outside of Marshall’s four games out in 1981, no one was injured during the three years we are projecting for Branch; any sort of injury would, obviously, throw a wrench into the works. In addition, the Patriots’ utter lack of a respected wide receiver across from Branch may cause him to stumble until Chad Jackson is ready.

Is it worth, then, giving into Branch’s demands? I suppose that depends on what his terms legitimately are, something I’m yet to actually see. If Branch produces at this level somewhere else for the next three years, though, Patriots fans will miss a departed #83.

Bill Barnwell’s arrival at Northeastern University in 2001 precipitated the Patriots’ surprising ascent to greatness. His recent graduation must, sadly, signify the decline of the Belichick Empire. Bill co-writes the Scramble for the Ball column each week on the Football Outsiders website, and can be reached at bbarnwell@footballoutsiders.com.

Considering the players out for the Patriots, a second look at the first exhibition game against Atlanta on tape proves encouraging, if not perfect, on the whole. Many of the younger players had very good or at the least flashes of good performances Saturday night. Lets take a look at the individual units to evaluate these performaces:

QUARTERBACKS: Tom Brady really didn’t play long enough to make any substantial evaluation of where he is at. But suffice to say, nothing stood out to indicate he’ll be anything but Tom Brady this season. Which is all we really need to see in pre-season. Matt Cassel had an uneven performance. At times he looked in command of the offense, and he made some good throws particularly in the second half. But he also showed he is still a work in progress and at times appeared a little unsure of himself, made poor decisions and was too hesitant. His habit of looking to run, while it produced decent results about half the time, is not what the Patriots are looking for from their quarterback and a tendancy they have tried to correct in Cassel unless it truly is a last resort. The talent is obviously there, but he is still not a finished product. Still, there was a sense he has improved from last year. Its just not going to be the amazing transformation we witnessed in Tom Brady from year one to year two. More evidence is needed, but the performance was good enough for Cassel to still win the backup job on the Patriots with some improvement in the next three exhibition games.

RUNNING BACK: While in there, Corey Dillon ran hard and with determination. He showed some improvement in his quickness from last year, probably because he is now healthy, and was productive in his first outing. But the story was rookie first round pick Laurence Maroney. Maroney was eye-popping good in his debut. Quick, strong, shifty, he really had the Falcons spinning in their tracks and not sure how to bring this young runner down on several carries. A very impressive showing. Still, one must temper their enthusiasm by noting the Falcons, like most teams, aren’t doing the full contact hitting in camp and this was their first time all year bringing runners to the ground. This may account somewhat for their trouble bring Maroney down on first contact. But still, it was a very encouraging, even exhilirating debut overall for Pats fans. Unheralded free agent Patrick Cobbs came in and showed a bit both in the receiving and running game. He led the nation in rushing last year in college, he must be doing something right. However, Cobbs is a project at best despite his good night Saturday. Not big or strong or fast enough to be a every down back in the NFL, he’ll have to make his niche somewhere else. The best thing he showed was in the passing game, where he fit in well and made some plays. He even did a decent job blocking. These could be the skills he has which helps him earn a spot on the Patriots practice squad this season. Another rookie, H-back Garrett Mills showed good hands and a knack for getting open. A good debut for him as well.

WIDE RECEIVER: This was clearly the area of the team that played the worst Saturday night. Only three catches between all the receivers and only one thru the first three quarters. Reche Caldwell had that first catch, but also got some criticism for a “drop” in the end zone on the first drive. While the drop was a much tougher play than portrayed in the local media as it was rifled at a short distance between a crowd by Tom Brady, it could have been caught. Not the worst incompletion you’ll see and a pretty tough play for any receiver, still you’d like to have seen him snare it if only to shut up the critics just looking for a reason to appear observant when it comes to a new player. The rest of the receivers didn’t show up at all. Kelvin Kight, who started and had played well in practice, didn’t show anything in the game and had no catches. The rest were equally non-descript. The Patriots will have to hope for a better performance Saturday in their next exhibition game.

TIGHT END: Ben Watson had a big catch and run and showed he’ll be a major factor in the passing game. Rookie David Thomas had a solid debut, blocking well, appearing completely coherent in the offense and had a couple catches as well. Good stuff.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Matt Light at left tackle appeared solid and back from his leg injury of last year. Rookies Ryan O’Callaghan and Dan Stevenson played well for their first NFL game and looked to belong as players. O’Callaghan in particular, a fifth round choice by the Pats this year, appeared comfortable in the running and passing games and made some really nice blocks to both give Cassel time and spring good runs. On the downside, rookie free agent Brian Barthelmes playing center was overmatched and clearly not ready yet, if ever, for this level of competition. He simply got overpowered too often and didn’t display much ability to get movement in his blocks even when not overpowered. Veteran Gene Mruczkowski was inconsisitent. He made several very good blocks, only to blow assignments a few plays later. He will have trouble making the team as a backup this season unless he can perform better from play to play.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Two young players stood out, Santonio Thomas and rookie draftee LeKevin Smith. Thomas was among the best Patriots on the field Saturday night. Playing mostly end, but some tackle as well, he shed blocks easily, held his ground when needed and was effective on almost every play he was in for. He looked outstanding and his versatility to play both end and tackle will help him. Smith also flashed similar versatility and had a very solid debut. Both these players are fighting each other for roster spots and both acquitted themselves well in round one.

LINEBACKERS: Two more young players showed up here, Pierre Woods and Jeremy Mincey. Woods was particularly good, showing power in the passing game and the ability to hold his ground when run at. Very encouraging debut by this 250 pounder who only started one year at Michigan. Mincey also showed up well, though perhaps a notch down. He flashed some pass rush ability and in general held his ground on running plays. The only negative was on a couple running plays he seemed to get sucked either too far inside or outside and thus left a gap in the defense. But a good debut overall. It should be noted linebacker Eric Alexander played well on special teams, which will help him earn a spot as a linebacker on the Patriots roster.

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Safety and draft pick Willie Andrews had a good night in general. It wasn’t perfect, he was late getting to one downfield pass to help, but he showed good ability defending the pass and stuck his nose in there on the runs as well. He had very nice range and was all over the field, which is what you want to see from a safety. On special teams, he also showed up so he is in good position to make the team if he can keep up the solid performances. No one else in the defensive backfield showed up much, but the lack of quickness from Chad Scott makes one wonder if he has anything left. Apparently a smart, hard working veteran who coach Bill Belichick respects, he is getting up there in years and appears a step slow at times. He’ll have to show more for him to continue his NFL career.

KICKERS: Both Martin Gramatica and rookie Stephen Gostkowski did nothing to hurt their chances or make any critical mistakes. They go in round two this week still dead even.

The story of the night was the young players, particularly Maroney, O’Callaghan, Santonio Thomas, Mills, Smith, Woods, Mincey, and Andrews. First looks can often be wrong, but based solely on that, it appears the Patriots are off to a good start in restocking their roster this year. It remains to be seen if these players can build off this good start Saturday in Foxboro against Arizona. And for those who didn’t play well, its time to turn it around as two bad performances or even mediocre performances for a borderline player could be fatal to their chances to earn a job with the Patriots. It should be interesting to see who sustains their showings and who takes a step forward or back. Until then, thanks for reading.