Bizzaro Colts

Imagine you’re Peyton Manning.

I realize this is ridiculous but just try.
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Now here’s where it gets interesting. Forget about going undefeated…you’re about to enter the dark world of Bizzaro Peyton…who despite his imaginary hardship is having a remarkable season…

Four years ago Tony Dungy left Tampa Bay for the head coaching job in Indianapolis. He liked your poise, accuracy, toughness and unparalleled ability to survey the field. He decided he might do great things with you if he could improve your defense. He didn’t wait around to make those improvements and you immediately won 3 Super Bowls in those 4 years — this was despite having guys like Cato June on your roster.

Although June was a former creampuff, under Bizzaro Dungy he mysteriously became a perennial pro bowler…a terrorizing force who struck fear in the hearts of those who crossed over the middle. Bizzaro Dungy also spotlighted June’s versatility as a long snapper and assistant to the team chef.

In winning your Super Bowls you consistently enjoyed beating the crap out of a heavily favored Patriots team with a mysteriously prolific QB named Bizzaro Brady who was a former first overall selection and who now had 2 League MVPs.

Bizzaro Brady continually confirmed his reputation for choking in the postseason by scoring less points than opposing QBs despite having far superior offenses. Many defensive coordinators point to his superior ability on first reads but average ability on progression reads. Despite his manic idiosyncrasies, and his teammates’ general indifference toward him, he’s kept his job because of a propensity for breaking passing records like he did in college when Michiganians were naming babies after him.

While Bizzaro Brady is the highest paid player in the league, you instead went for a 40% market discount to help preserve the competitive balance on your team.

Other great players and malcontents have lined up to take discounts just to play with you and train under your famous master…hoping to unlock their own hidden potential.

Although you don’t own any neat passing records, pundits are quietly beginning to consider you the all time greatest QB. Before the season began Joe Montana said he felt lucky to be compared to you.

Skeptics have begun to speculate about a negative karma surplus.

Tom Moore finally retired last season — he secretly grew tired of the humiliation attached with being your coordinator. In a controversial move they promoted a college intern to fill Moore’s shoes. Nobody panics because you call your own plays anyway. The intern doesn’t officially have the title of OC and has never even been heard speaking. But it’s assumed that instead of 3 options at the line you now can chose from 100 in any order you wish.

Nobody saw this coming, but Edgerrin James — who is now 32 — was given a big extension in the offseason — privately he’s not sure if he’ll ever make the HoF but he’s had his fill of success and people are starting to question his motivation. Suddenly he begins complaining of a nagging ankle injury and you’re suddenly without “the Edge.”

Immediately, both Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro have also developed mysterious ailments and conspiracy theories abound. Bill Pollian desperately scours the bargain wire and finds Moran Norris, a fullback who was cut from the Houston Texans’ practice squad. Norris immediately has success in a game against his former team in Houston and everyone in Indy gets excited — the Lafayette Tribune even likens Norris to John Riggins.

I forgot to mention, Tarik Glenn and Ryan Diem are still inactive. Two weeks ago, Jeff Saturday was added to IR but you have a journeyman backup tackle on the practice squad who is itching to “step up.” He has never played Center in his life but nobody is too concerned because he will “step up” and the Center position is overrated anyway.

As your protection tries to gel you’re in a bind…you can’t run the ball or even mount the threat of a run. Pass protection probably would’ve been an issue anyway, but without the running game it becomes magnified…play action disappears…single and zero deep coverages also disappear…and everyone else who isn’t deep is sprinting into the backfield after you.

TV experts are starting to question your poise.

Your normally stable receiving corps has also been scrambled up…some weeks you have Harrison, Wayne, Stokley or Walters, but never all of them together and sometimes only one or two of them. Harrison is constantly double teamed as a result. Dallas Clark also misses time, but you still have rookie Bryan Fletcher who is no longer a surprise feature of your offense. You don’t yet have the timing down with some of these guys and it’s hard to judge their body language and anticipate how they’re adjusting in their routes.

And oh yeah, the Colts’ defense is ranked 31st in the league and the genius of Bizzaro Dungy is now being called into question. Your defense is so bad that you average less than 2 opportunities per quarter to mount a drive, and each successive drive is accompanied by a diminishing chance to make up ground…this further compromises your chance to develop any consistency in the ground game.

Some “experts” are finally beginning to realize how valuable your possession style offense was in past years in helping to mask the deficiencies in the defense.

Fortunately the normally dominant AFC South is very weak this season, but instead of facing the AFC North and NFC West, the NFL has nailed you with road games in the AFC West and NFC South.

Now imagine the results in the preceding scenario when you are less than superhuman in a given week.

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Looking for sympathy?, sorry, nobody cares. You are Peyton Manning — you can get any chick you want (this could be a stretch)…but people are sick of your golden image and have been desperately waiting for any sign that you may be a fraud. But you can take comfort in the fact that your fans and local media still believe you have an “S” on your chest and still hold you to a standard of perfection.

A humiliating loss in the RCA Dome snaps your 21 game home winning streak. Afterwards resident NFL authority Marty Schottenheimer publicly questions the chances of your team to be successful. You issue a calculated defense of your team — including a direct shot at Schottenheimer’s cynicism. The national pundits, led by Peter King, shockingly chastise you for overreacting — Marty’s a nice guy who meant well but they’re willing to “give you a pass” because you’re Bizzaro Peyton.

Then comes a knife in the heart…on Monday night, the Bizzaro Patriots humiliate you at home in front of 50 million people and remain undefeated. During the game cameras catch you tossing a bottle of Evian in the general direction of line coach Howard Mudd and the local media writes scathing pieces questioning your maturity — one veteran beat writer even questions how you were raised and suggests you better start preparing for the cold harsh reality of the downhill part of your career.

Every week you’re spotting great teams 20 points on the road and asked to dig out.

Last week, Bizzaro Dungy’s dad died and he was absent going into a game against the Chiefs at Arrowhead who were playing a kitchen sink game. It was yet another team with a QB who doesn’t know the meaning of carrying a team on his back…all it took for Trent Green to fall off the planet was an injury to his left left tackle, that is until Willie Roaf returned Sunday. Sadly, that incident failed to provide the media with any perspective on your phenomenal season.

As for you, it finally hit the fan with 4-picks. Cocky Chief’s DB’s told the media they “predicted” they’d intercept you as much and cited teammate Tony Gonzalez as an unbiased witness…this was then broadcast across all outlets. Sean Salisbury called your performance “inexcusable” — while on the exact same telecast Salisbury made amazing excuses for Brett Favre for leading his team to a 2-9 record in the NFC North.

Far from giving you a pass, the local media calls your performance “horrible” — Indianapolis Star reporter Mike Felger is nice enough to give you a grade of “D-”…while the running backs receive a lighter grade of “D” (despite the fact that you led your team in rushing by the time the game was out of hand).

The Star added that the Bizzaro Colts were able to overcome 40 injuries each of the last two seasons so the coaching and front office obviously deserve blame. They’re apparently unable to comprehend the CUMULATIVE effect of another record breaking injury year ON TOP OF all the others in seasons past.

Teams are no longer afraid of the Bizzaro Colts and in fact look forward to destroying you to enhance their own confidence. Meanwhile experts continue to expect no-names to be “plugged in” without any drop-off while veterans are asked to “step up” as though they weren’t already giving 100%.

Some media members frustratingly insist that players in your defensive secondary should perform at a consistently high level while six other DB’s are placed on IR…they defend this ignorant argument by comparing the situation to last season (when the team constantly won time of possession and the defense was on the field for half as long…and when a HoF safety roamed the backfield).

Other media members go straight to the playcalling while ignoring the fact that you’re being pounded or that you’re constantly fighting out of huge deficits…they of course they have a better recipe than Bizzaro Dungy (still the best X’s and O’s coach in the business).

The dizzy revolving personnel door and overall success of the team has caused another serious problem: you’re finally tapped out against the cap and have zero ability to add significant talent.

Yet the only acceptable result is continued perfection and domination in the parity era…you’re finally feeling the effects…and the blame lies at your feet. Pundits ignore that your career winning percentage in 3-point games is still at a ridiculous .913 (21-2) — and that Montana, Marino and Elway were all around .500 in close games…you are merely expected to win them all.

And yet somehow you’re leading the NFL in passing and almost on pace for a career year in terms of efficiency. In four of your team’s six wins you engineered 4th quarter comebacks — 3 of them on the road — with a combined comeback passer rating of 152.0 — and you’re on pace for 9, 10 or 11 wins which will be enough for a playoff berth in your division.

But that’s again not “valuable” enough for the MVP voters this season (Peter King cites your performance in KC as having sealed your fate). Your rival — the anointed one, Bizzaro Brady (who’s yet to be sacked all year) — is still the odds on favorite to win his 3rd MVP for carrying a healthy team through a cupcake schedule where they’ve been widely favored in every game. The Bizzaro Pats have drawn comparisons to the 92 Cowboys, 91 Redskins, 89 49ers, 51 Rams, 40 Bears and 26 Bears as one of the most unstoppable forces in the history of professional football…it also happens to be the same calendar year that your team held the exact same unstoppable offense to 3 points in the playoffs.

Having fun yet?

Given any thought to politics?

go pats,
The Taildragger
boston mass

Patriots at Chiefs Game Day Rear View

November 27, 2005
By Scott A. Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

The New England Patriots took a giant step away from playoff significance today with a thoroughly disheartening 26-16 loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City.

AFC East championship be damned (even with the loss, they retained a two-game lead over 2nd place Buffalo); the Patriots cannot beat even a halfway decent opponent. They haven

Patriots at Kansas City Preview

November 24, 2005
By Scott A. Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

The Patriots will try to extend their new winning streak to three games Sunday when they travel to Kansas City for a match up of two 6-4 AFC playoff contenders.

Though the Chiefs have the same record as the up and down Pats, they don’t enjoy the advantage of posting that mark in the sub .500 AFC East, where the Patriots are likely to win the division. Kansas City goes into the season’s 12th week in 3rd place in the much tougher West, behind Denver and San Diego, and if the season ended today, the Chiefs would trail Cincinnati, Jacksonville and the Chargers in the race for the two AFC wild card spots.

On paper, this looks generally like an even match up, before you make the requisite allowance for the boisterous bastards in the Arrowhead stands. Both teams have well-regarded offenses and bottom-dwelling defenses, though the Chiefs rank a little higher than the Pats on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City once again has one of the league’s most productive offenses, which won’t be welcome news for New England’s 31st ranked defense. At the same time, you have to figure the Patriots offense to ring up some points on the Chiefs #25 D, keeping them in a competitive shoot out, but here’s a couple of things that bother me: Kansas City has one of the tougher 3rd down defenses in the league (7th) and they’re one of the better teams in limiting their opponent’s time of possession (3rd). Ouch - those just happen to be a couple of weak points for a Patriots unit that at times has been woefully inconsistent. This, along with one of the best home-field advantages anywhere, might be enough to tip the balance towards the Chiefs on Sunday.

Think about this, though. The folks at Cold Hard Football Facts tell us that the Chiefs have a 0-2 record against quality opponents in 2005. In CHFF’s ‘Quality Wins Quotient’, a quality opponent is any team that currently holds a winning record. So far, the Chiefs have played just two - the Chargers and Broncos, both on the road - and lost them both. The Patriots - with a 2-4 QWQ record of their own, thanks to road wins in Pittsburgh and Atlanta - will be just the third in eleven games for Kansas City.

The Patriots on Offense

You

New Orleans at Patriots Game Review: An Uneven Performance

The Patriots pulled out yet another needed, yet imperfect win Sunday against the New Orleans Saints in Foxboro. It was imperfect due to the uneven nature of it. At times, the offense was excellent, particularly in the first half. The defense also was very good for most of the first half. But, unfortunately, some breakdowns on both sides of the ball left the Patriots barely hanging on at the end. But, that being said, a win is a win as they say and anytime you can get one of those in the NFL, it outweighs all else considering the alternative.

On offense, the Patriots featured a balanced attack most of the day. The running game featured the dual tandem of Patrick Pass and Heath Evans and clicked early on. The passing game was also on fire in the first half with quarterback Tom Brady hitting tight end Ben Watson repeatedly and finding some nice rhythm with Pass and receiver Deion Branch as well. A number of drops by tight end Christian Fauria were disappointing and slowed down the Patriots attack some.

However, as the game wore on, the offense became less effective. The pass blocking had some problems, particularly at right tackle where Brandon Gorin was filling in for the injured Tom Ashworth. Brady had some trouble as well, missing on some long passes in which the receivers appeared open. They did hit on one long one, a 60-yarder to Andre Davis, but the timing seemed off on most of the others. This may be in part attributable to the fact the Patriots were missing three of the six receivers on their roster.

On defense, the Patriots played a very solid game most of the first half. Willie McGinest had easily his best game of the year, forcing Saints quarterback Aaron Brooks to rush his throws, defending the run well and getting out in coverage and causing havoc there as well. Others who looked good early on were defensive lineman Richard Seymour, lineman Vince Wilfork and safety Michael Stone.

But as the game progressed, the Patriots did have some breakdowns on defense. The running game for the Saints never really got moving, but they did get their passing game moving and the pressure from the front of the Patriots defense wore down late in the game. Brooks with time made some good throws and hit Dontae Stallworth twice for TDs and nearly brought the Saints back for the tie until throwing an interception to Eugene Wilson in the end zone on the last play of the game.

The special teams were good today for the Patriots and featured nice kicks and coverage as well as a few decent returns. This was a positive factor in the game.

Overall, it was a decent performance for the Patriots but still one that left you unconvinced of their long term prospects. GDRV did not see the progress over the whole game hoped for from the previous week. It started out good, but went downhill as it moved along. That was disappointing and, at best, they merely maintained their level of play from the previous week rather than increased it.

Still, its a win, their first two game win streak of the season. They are now firmly in first place without any of the other teams in the division appearing to have much of a chance to challenge. They’ll continue to get players back from injury (and they were missing an alarming number of significant ones against the Saints). So, in that respect, they are still on target for the playoffs. It also isn’t terribly significant what their level of play is this week, it will be significant what it is in December and January. Consistent improvement towards that is a must, however, and they’ll need to increase that level significantly if they are to pull out a win this coming week in Kansas City.

New Orleans at Patriots Preview

The 2-7 New Orleans Saints come to Foxboro Sunday with the Patriots looking for their first 2 game winning streak of the year. It will be important to the Patriots to build on the progress made last week on defense. A good performance there, better than against Miami, will lead to this game not being close and it will tilt quickly in the Patriots favor.

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE
New Orleans is 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed. They are also 29th in points allowed. They give up over 130 yards rushing per game and 4.4 yards per carry. So, look for the Patriots to try to establish the run. Corey Dillon will likely be out for the Patriots, but a triumverate attack of Patrick Pass, Heath Evans and Mike Cloud is the option with the hot hand probably getting an extended workout in the second half.

The Saints pass defense does rank 5th in the NFL in yardage allowed, but that is mostly attributable to the fact opponents have tried the 2nd fewest number of pass attempts against them. When they do pass, opponents have completed 59% of their passes with 11 TDs and only 7 INTs. So the Patriots have the opportunity here to throw the ball as well.

The Saints do have some capable guys on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive ends Charles Grant and Darren Howard were both high draft picks and are excellent players. That is one of the better end tandems in the NFL. The Saints are stocked at this position as they have Will Smith and Tony Bryant at backups and both of those guys could start for most NFL teams as well. Between the four of them, they have 12.5 of the Saints 17 sacks this year. All will play and the tight ends and backs will have to make sure to watch the rush from the end when passing.

The Saints linebackers are a below average group that lacks speed. This probably accounts for the poor job they have done against the run as backs can cut back or outside on them and they don’t have the ability to catch up. #57 Colby Buckholdt is a second year player who has some potential for them in the long run. The lack of speed is a particularly bad match for Saints coach Jim Haslett who runs a zone-blitz scheme similar to Pittsburgh. The Patriots have traditionally tried to attack this type of scheme by throwing downfield in the middle and on screens. The shorter receiver routes probably won’t be as prevalent. The Saints defensive backs feature two excellent players the Patriots will have to be careful not to allow to make big plays in Mike McKenzie and Dwight Smith. The rest of the crew is below average.

THE PATRIOTS ON DEFENSE
The Saints will want to throw the ball on the Patriots. However, an issue for them is the status of receiver Donte Stallworth who is banged up. Receiver Joe Horn, normally a Pro Bowl level player, is having a very poor year and may be showing signs of age. Third receiver Devery Henderson is a very talented guy who can get deep and has size and burned the Patriots in the exhibition season.

Quarterback Aaron Brooks is an inconsistent performer for the Saints who the Patriots should be able to pressure into mistakes as the Saints have given up 28 sacks this year, among the worst in the league. Running the ball, the Patriots will want to stop former teammate Antwouin Smith who has done a good job for New Orleans this season and always runs hard. The other back, Aaron Stecker, isn’t much of a threat.

Look for the Patriots to try to play base defense most of the time, perhaps throwing an occasional linebacker blitzer at the inexperienced and underperforming Saints offensive line. They should be able to get pressure with four guys, maybe an occasional (but not overdone) fifth guy. The defensive backs for the Pats need to be physical with the Saints receivers on the short routes and hope the Patriots can contain the edge and not allow Brooks to scramble on them. If they can do this, Brooks won’t have time to hit the longer downfield routes to the speedy, talented receivers that could burn the Patriots and has been a problem this year. They can’t allow Brooks to buy time or it will be a problem yet again.

THE PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS VS. THE NEW ORLEANS SPECIAL TEAMS
Saints kicker John Carney has had a solid, long NFL career but is now 41 years old and doesn’t have the leg he used to. He is only 4-8 in field goals over 40 yards this season. The weather forecast calls for 10 to 15 MPH winds in Foxboro tomorrow and that could affect Carney even further. If Haslett decides to risk some over 40 yard field goals, it may set the Patriots up in some good field position after misses. The Saints have done a good job covering kicks and punts this year, so that doesn’t present any obvious opportunities for the Patriots.

Even with the injuries, the Patriots should have more than enough to beat this team. The Patriots offense should be able to throw and run the ball, even without Corey Dillon. The Saints offense will likely move the ball at times, particularly throwing, but will stall, make mistakes and settle for field goals at time, some of which they very well may miss. In the end, it’ll amount to a 30-13 Patriots victory.

Patriots at Miami: Signs of Life

The Patriots came through down in Miami this week with an excellent win that had some solid signs for the future after the blowout loss to the Colts earlier in the week. No, yesterday’s win was not against a great team. But it was against a team the Patriots have struggled to beat in a stadium that Miami is very tough in. And Miami is a solid team that has beaten Carolina and Denver on that very same field this year. No game down there is going to be a walkover and the Patriots had a week that was more good than bad and resulted in a W. That is all that matters.

On offense, it was a decent effort. They did get off to a slow start, but that has happened occasionally even in past championship years as the Patriots sort of felt an opponent out and tried to play field position. Other than the first drive, the Patriots couldn’t really gain a hold in that regard of that battle early on. GDRV thought it may have been a decent decision to go for it in Miami territory on 4th and 1 on the first possession, but they elected to punt. Given how they seemed to be moving the ball on that first drive, it may be a decision they want to rethink for next time.

A special hand needs to go out for fill-in running back Heath Evans. His bruising style and hard running kept the offense with a running game after Corey Dillon went out. That good play didn’t lead to many points while he was doing most of his running, but it made the Dolphins have to respect the run which perhaps opened up the passing game later on. With only two weeks of practice with the Patriots under his belt and outside of his normal role, that was a big boost for the Patriots.

Once the Patriots passing game started rolling, the Patriots did start punching in some points. The offensive line deserves praise for their excellent play. Rookie Nick Kaczur continues to improve weekly and had an outstanding game yesterday. Brandon Gorin is a better run blocker than Tom Ashworth, but not as strong a pass blocker. Yesterday Gorin held up well in both areas in his first start of the season filling in for the injured Ashworth. And Russ Hochstein came in at center in tough conditions when Dan Koppen went out injured and he too filled in without missing a beat. By the end of the day, the Patriots had three starters out and another rookie, Logan Mankins, at a fourth spot on the line and were still holding up okay and moving the ball.

Quarterback Tom Brady had an uneven day, but made some big throws when it mattered. Tim Dwight in the receiver spot made one of the better plays of the year in ripping the ball away from a defender for a 59 yard advance that led to the winning score. Tight end Ben Watson flashed his great downfield potential and scored two TDs.

All in all, a decent showing from the offense. They put up 23 points with many injuries. They scored when it mattered. They helped win the game. You’d like to see a quicker start, but other than that not much to complain about.

On the other side of the ball, the embattled defense showed some signs they could be on the verge of turning it around. Up front, there was more pressure, better discipline and good play from some long missing players, practically, such as Jarvis Green and Vince Wilfork. The return of All-Pro Richard Seymour helped a lot as well up front and he should improve as he gets back into playing condition.

The linebackers were active and helped win the game. Tedy Bruschi looked like the old Tedy Bruschi, playing with passion, knocking down passes, jumping over linemen to get in the quarterbacks face and just generally playing with reckless abandon. That kind of thing can be contagious and early on it was obvious the Patriots defense was flocking to the ball and gang tackling. They shut down the running game and dared Miami quarterback Gus Frerotte to make plays. He made his share, but in the end neither he nor the Dolphins made enough.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect for the Patriots of this win was the play of the defensive backs. Rookie Ellsi Hobbs starting his first game showed he was a high energy player not afraid to be physical and get in receiver’s faces. He generally blanketed his man and came up with his first pick. All in all, an excellent starting debut and it looks like there is something to work with there. Asante Samuel at the other corner also had a good day. He did get beat for one touchdown, but showed again he is a willing hitter and good in coverage most of the day. New safety starter Michael Stone was easily the best fill in the Patriots have had at that spot since Rodney Harrison went down. He seemed less hesitant and more confident than any of his predecessors and was generally in the rights spots willing to deliver a hit.

Yes, its true, Miami did throw for 360 yards. But it just felt different. Maybe its that it took Frerotte 47 attempts to ring up those yards. Or that he only completed 53.2% of his passes. It just seemed better and more competitive. Now sure, there were a couple plays where the tackling was bad you’d like to see a better job. And 360 yards is still unacceptable even if it “felt” better or not.

But GDRV liked the hitting and the competitive coverage. The energy level was high. GDRV liked the fact the Patriots got off the field a few times on critical 3rd downs (and 4th down at the end of the game). It was all very encouraging, given what has gone on with the pass defense to date.

It sounds like a broken record, but Josh Miller continued his outstanding season. If he continues this way, he should get some consideration for the Pro Bowl. Adam Vinatierri outkicked his Miami counterpart, kicker Olindo Mare. The Patriots returns and coverage were not good and in fact they started the game with a penalty on their first return. Both units remain somewhat underachieving.

GDRV was encouraged by this win. At 5-4, the Patriots have the division under their own control. But a word of caution. It has been such an up and down season, every time the Patriots seem to be getting it together, they take a step back. But again, there were more positive signs than we have seen in awhile. They do have a lot of injuries to overcome, but some of those guys will come back soon. If they can continue to improve and can beat New Orleans Sunday to put together their first two game winning streak of the year, we may just see them get rolling yet.

PATRIOTS AT MIAMI PREVIEW

The Patriots travel down to Miami this weekend looking to rebound from the thrashing they took at the hands of Indianapolis last week, as well as to avenge last year’s shocking upset by the Dolphins in Miami. But far more important than that, this represents yet another opportunity for the Patriots to take a firm grasp of the division and put themselves into solid position to make the playoffs. For Miami, despite their 3-5 record, it offers the opportunity to be tied for first place halfway thru the first year of a new coach and program.

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE
The Patriots should be able to move the ball on Miami. Although some of the players are the same, this is not the same dominant defense Miami has had in recent years. They can still be tough, however, particularly at home.

Miami gives up about 115 yards rushing, but only 3.7 yards per carry. Opponents are controlling the ball for an average of about 33 and a half minutes per game, about six and half minutes more than the Miami offense. So you can pound it on them if a team is determined enough. The Patriots may be able to run a bit on Miami, at least more so than they have had luck doing in the past. The Miami defensive line is small in spots and, while quick, not quite as strong against a power running game. Once again, the ability of the Patriots to run will likely be dictated by the health of running back Corey Dillon. Dillon looked nowhere close to his old self vs. Indianapolis and it remains to be seen if six days in the interim will change that equation any. If he is healthy enough to put in a good effort, look for the Patriots physical linemen to control the middle of the line of scrimmage and create some creases for Dillon. For the Dolphins, the key man is Zach Thomas, their middle linebacker, who seems tailor made for the new defensive scheme and is having his best season in years.

Throwing the ball, opponents have had success vs. Miami. Having moved cornerback Patrick Surtain in the offseason, they are not as strong at one spot as they had been though rookie Travis Daniels has played well and looks like he’ll be a good NFL player. The other corner, Sam Madison, is a former All-Pro who isn’t quite up to that level anymore but still quite good. The Dolphins have lost one of their starting safeties, former Patriot Tebucky Jones, for the year to injury and are vulnerable to tight ends down the seam. Teams need to be careful throwing on Miami as they have active defensive linemen and have piled up 24 sacks so far this year. Guys like Jason Taylor, David Bowen and Kevin Carter will eat up the Patriots tackles if the backs and tight ends don’t do a good job helping them out. Dolphins coach Nick Saban, though a Bill Belichick student, is more apt to blitz than his mentor and routinely sent blitz after blitz in college as a coach at LSU that opponents had hard times picking up. It may be a good idea for the Patriots to do a lot of their passing on first down and avoid false starts and holding penalties that get them into must throw situations. This can be easier said than done with a very loud crowd Miami will surely have.

THE PATRIOTS ON DEFENSE
Luckily for the Patriots with their defensive backfield injured and struggling like no other time in the Belichick era, Miami is a run first team. Their quarterback, Gus Frerotte, is towards the bottom echelon of starting QBs in the NFL and they prefer to run with their two headed backfield of Ricky Williams and powerful and fast rookie Ronnie Brown. So, in some ways this tendancy plays into the Patriots hands.

But look for Miami to be able to run the ball as they have done a good job at it all year and are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If the Patriots are not going to get worn down in the eighty degree Miami heat in the fourth quarter, they’re going to have to find a way to slow the running attack down early before it gets rolling. Getting a two score lead in the second half would help immensely.

Miami has good weapons throwing the ball when they choose to in tight end Randy McMichael and receivers Chris Chambers and Marty Booker. McMichael and Chambers could be especially dangerous down the field as both are fast at their respective positions and the Patriots have struggled downfield all year. There is absolutely no doubt Miami will try to hit some passes way downfield on the Patriots, probably a few times early, having seen every other team they’ve played do it effectively. The Patriots absolutely have to find a way to stop these downfield shots, but it won’t be easy through use of an effective pass rush as the Patriots have only 12 sacks all year, the same number the Dolphins have given up offensively. Hardly inspiring numbers. The possible return of defensive lineman Richard Seymour could add extra potential to this area for the Patriots, however.

THE PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS VS. THE MIAIM SPECIAL TEAMS
The Patriots need to be careful with punt returner Wes Welker who is averaging over 11 yards per return and burned the Patriots on a long return down in Miami last season. However, in the positive, there may be some opportunities for long returns on kickoffs against Miami as they are giving up nearly 25 yards per return there. Both Miami kicker Olindo Mare and Patriots kicker Adam Vinatierri are clutch, experienced kickers the teams can count on if the game comes down to the last couple minutes. Both teams punters are having good seasons.

The Patriots have generally not played well in Miami. Miami will come into this game fired up and knowing the Patriots are vulnerable on defense. Their offense will be able to move the ball enough and hit a few big plays to put some points on the board. The Patriots offense also should be able to move the ball up and down the field. As said above, this is not the Miami defense of old. But Miami should be able to cause a couple turnovers which may save a few drives and get some sacks as well to put the Patriots in a hole and kill a few others. In the end, the field position battle may tilt to Miami’s side. That’ll be enough for Miami to pull out a 24-20 victory over the foundering Patriots.

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