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Pats Draft Scenarios: The Perfect Mock Draft

March 30, 2011 By 2 Comments

by Chris Warner, Patriots Daily Staff

We’ve gone over New England’s first six draft positions enough that it feels like we’ve been sent to Store 24 to play the lottery: 17, 28, 33, 60, 74, 92. With final selections in place, we now know that the Pats pick at 125 (fourth round), 159 (fifth) and 193 (sixth).

Time for our first Perfect Pats Mock. These aren’t necessarily the players that we think Bill Belichick will select (those can be found in a previous column); rather, these are the players we want him to pick.

The positions New England needs guided our thinking. You know, because we’ve had such good luck with that in the past…

Iowa's Adrian Clayborn

17 – Pass rusher: Adrian Clayborn, Iowa. We took a long look at Ryan Kerrigan (who may or may not make it past Carolina at 16), but we like Clayborn for his heft (6-3, 281) and explosiveness (7.08 seconds in his pro-day 3-cone). Watch his highlight reel – more like a “focus reel,” actually – of Clayborn vs. Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi. While the All-American tackle walls off Clayborn effectively in the first few plays, the pass-rusher demonstrates his burst during a strip-sack.

That ability to get to the QB against fierce competition puts this Hawkeye on our wish list. It doesn’t hurt that a) Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has worked with Belichick; and b) the Patriots worked out Clayborn this month.

28 – Defensive End: Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple. Good size (6-4, 310) and strength (27 bench reps) bring Wilkerson to the top of our DE list at this point of the draft. While we’ve lauded the work of Cameron Heyward of Ohio State, Wilkerson played tackle in a four-man front before switching to a 3-4 defensive end his senior year. His frame and experience point to versatility that Heyward may lack.

With the top defensive needs addressed (you’re welcome), time to turn to the other side of the ball.

33 – Offensive Lineman: Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State. Lots to like about Mr. Sherrod, especially his size (6-5, 320) and experience (first-team All-SEC). Sherrod helped the Bulldogs lead the conference in rushing and started 34 games in his college career.

Carimi will be long gone by pick 33, but Sherrod could contribute this coming season.

60 – Wide receiver: Edmund Gates, Abilene Christian. You may want to mock Division II Abilene Christian (Go Wildcats!), but do so knowing that Bears receiver Johnny Knox went there. Gates had similar speed (a 4.35 40 compared to Knox’s 4.29).

New England’s receiver group reminds me of a bees in a box: they can move quickly, but they don’t go very far. Defenses counteract that quickness by flooding the short zones with personnel. One burner can force opponents to re-think their strategy. Gates might be that one.

74 – Running back: Delone Carter, Syracuse. Carter increased his profile by improving his 40 time from 4.54 seconds at the combine to 4.43 at his pro day. He fits the mold as a consistent contributor on an inconsistent team, rising to the occasion in the Orangemen’s bowl game with 198 rushing yards. Getting named MVP of the East-West Shrine Game heightened his status. Speaking of height, don’t let 5-foot-9 fool you. At 222 pounds, he can bowl over opponents. Hence the nickname “Candlepin Carter.”

A nickname I just gave him, mind you. And a catchy one at that.

92 – Cornerback: Buster Skrine, Tennessee-Chattanooga. Because his name sounds like “screen,” we can look forward to plenty of pun-filled headlines with the 5-10, 195-pound phantom. (“Skrine Pass.” There. It’s done.) His 40 time (4.37) and 3-cone drill (6.44) have put lots of eyes on the Southern Conference star. Special teams prowess only adds to his luster, as seen on his highlight reel.

Coach Belichick worked him out last week after Patriots Daily had mentioned Skrine in a previous column. I tell ya, it’s great to see the influence PD has on the ol’ coach. Right?

125 – Offensive Lineman: Zach Hurd, UConn. Hurd and his linemates get credit for the production of Husky running back Jordan Todman this past season. A unanimous All-Big East choice, the 6-7, 316-pound Hurd could add depth to the Pats’ interior offensive line.

159 – Linebacker: Mike Mohamed, California. A noted scholar-athlete, Mohamed has the size (6-3, 240), speed (4.65 40) and brains (them Cal folks is smart) to play inside or outside behind a 3-4 defensive line. Add his surprising athleticism showcased at the combine(6.70 in the 3-cone drill) and Mohamed gets our vote to take the field at Gillette as a special teamer next season.

193 – Playing With House Money: Quarterback Josh Portis has gotten some mention over the past few columns, but that ends now after reading this report on Portis’ use of a stolen credit card. (Pay special attention to how, after allegedly using the card to purchase over $300 worth of goods, he asked for a store rewards card using his real name.)

Portis’ attorney called his action a “mistake.” To me, a mistake is when I put the cereal in the fridge and the milk in the cupboard. Nope: this felony puts Portis off our list.

Instead, we continue with defense and select Corbin Bryant, defensive end out of Northwestern. Bryant has had a great spring, including an attention-getting pro day workout that should get him on an NFL club. At 6-3, 297 pounds, Bryant ran the 40 in 5.1 seconds and benched 225 pounds 31 times. This past year he showed playmaking abilities with eight tackles for loss, an interception and forced fumble.

So, dear readers, there we go: the Perfect Pats Mock. Sure, Coach Belichick may choose to ignore these picks, but he does so at his own peril.

Email Chris Warner at [email protected]

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Pats Draft Scenarios: The Too-Early Mock

March 15, 2011 By 4 Comments

by Chris Warner, Patriots Daily Staff

While trying to guess whom Bill Belichick and Company will select in the last weekend of April, we reviewed recent history and came up with these basic rules for a New England draft.

Rule One: Avoid the flashy guy. Sure, there could be an incredible athlete available right when they’re picking, but the Pats tend to look past the Players of the Week to review each player’s overall career and see how it fits in Foxboro.

Rule Two: Trade down when possible. Relates to Rule One. This will happen, people. Heaven help us, this will happen.

Rule Three: Find a lesser-known player who may have been available later, and draft him. Too harsh? Maybe. While the Pats have a well-earned reputation for finding proverbial diamonds in the rough, for every Julian Edelman there’s at least one George Bussey.

With those three rules in mind, we’ll give this a shot. New England has six picks in the first three rounds (17, 28, 33, 60, 74 and 92 overall). They also have one pick each in rounds four, five and six (numbers to be determined). Ladies and gentlemen fans of Foxboroites, your 2011 Patriots draft…

Gabe Carimi

Just after Pick 17: Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin OT. Yep. Despite needing a dominant pass-rusher more than a waterfall needs gravity, New England will trade down (see Rule Two) for an offensive lineman. A great one, sure – Carimi won the Outland Trophy this past season – but was it the Pats’ offense or defense that had us screaming at the TV in January?

We’d like to see: We at PD have made our hopes clear regarding trading up for pass rusher/athletic freak Robert Quinn of North Carolina (How about San Francisco at number seven, Bill? Think about it). Barring that, defensive end J. J. Watt would fit quite nicely, as would myriad other pass-rushing candidates.

Pick 28: Cameron Heyward, Ohio State DE. Here’s a situation where the Pats look beyond Heyward’s elbow surgery earlier this year that prevented him from participating in the combine. His body of work, his size (6-5, 294) and his status (a captain at OSU) put him on the local radar and bring him to Gillette as a rookie starter.

We’d like to see: Barring a trade up for Quinn, maybe another pass-rushing type like Ryan Kerrigan of Iowa or Justin Houston of Georgia. But we have no problems with picking a defensive lineman, as it fills a need with a productive player. In fact, writing the previous statement makes us wonder if it’s going to happen. We’ll just be quiet now.

Pick 35 or so: Brooks Reed, Arizona OLB. The Pats will trade down again (because they can) and snatch up the best pass rusher available. That looks like Reed, an outside linebacker who – unlike the Pats’ current crop – can get to quarterbacks before they have a chance to set up their proverbial picnic blankets. Reed’s 6-3, 263-pound frame and 30 reps on the bench press should hold up against the run as well, potentially making him an every-down player on defense.

We’d like to see: Nothing against Reed (we heard his name was going to be Rivers but he was smaller than expected. Ha), but we’d address the pass-rushing position in Round One and take Maryland wide receiver Torrey Smith here. Smith has good size and excellent speed; he would add a deep threat to New England’s well-stocked wideouts.

Pick 60: Kenrick Ellis, Hampton DT. Not the flashy receiver or running back fans will want, but a big body who can take up space in the middle – or anywhere else along the line. At 6-5, 346, Hampton brings to mind a big body like Ted Washington of the 2003 Patriots.

We’d like to see: It’s hard to mess with this pick, and not only because that dude just got classified as a planet. (Sorry, Mercury!) The more monoliths along the defensive line, the better.

Pick 74: Ronald Johnson, USC WR. He doesn’t have great straightaway speed (4.46 in the 40) nor size (5-11, 199), but Johnson’s experience, big-school production and versatility (second team All Pac-10 punt returner) get him drafted ahead of schedule here.

We’d like to see: Wide receiver Edmund Gates of Abilene Christian. Faster and quicker than Johnson, Gates proved an exciting playmaker at the Division II level. With time – much like what they allowed for Taylor Price this past season – Gates could develop into a reliable receiver.

Pick 92: Delone Carter, Syracuse RB. Due to his stature (5-9), Carter may get compared to Lil’ Danny Woodhead. Some similarities hold true, especially when looking at the quickness of each player (compare Carter’s combine numbers with Woodhead’s 2008 pro day numbers). Though slower in the 40, Carter actually showed quicker times in the 20-yard shuttle and the 3-cone drill. Plus, Carter outweighs Woodhead by 25 pounds. We envision the ol’ coach hearkening back to the days of Joe Morris with this pick.

We’d like to see: Based on pure athleticism, cornerback Buster Skrine (pronounced screen) of Tennessee-Chattanooga warrants a long look here. Though undersized at 5-9, his 40 (4.37), quickness and return skills give Skrine the ability to help the team immediately, both as kick returner and defensive back in a dime (six-DB) package.

Round Four: Cortez Allen, Citadel CB. Ever heard of him? Nope? Exactly. Our nod to Rule Three comes in the form of a solid athlete who attended a military-style academy. Allen made second-team all conference and led the Bulldogs with five pass breakups. He has good size (6-1, 197) and quickness (4.1 seconds in the 20-yard shuttle) and seems like the type of guy about whom the Pats’ scouts would have enough inside info to warrant a selection.

We’d like to see: As we’ve said before, Hawaii running back Alex Green seems to fit the Patriots. As part of the Warriors’ pass-oriented offense, Green still gained over 1,000 yards this past season. His combine 40 (4.45) belies his size (6-0, 225). If the Pats decide to wait until the middle rounds, they can get some heft and speed for their backfield here.

Round Five: David Arkin, Missouri State OG. The Pats have taken offensive linemen recently in this area of the draft. This off-season has given them no reason to stop such a trend, as Stephen Neal has retired and Logan Mankins has made his contract dissatisfaction clear. Arkin earned All Missouri Valley Football Conference honors for every one of his four years at college. That’ll work.

Also, while Arkin attended Missouri State, Pats guard Dan Connolly went to Southeast Missouri State. So… that’s something. Right?

We’d like to see: If he’s still available, this looks like a great spot for linebacker Mark Herzlich of BC. A heady player with strength, Herzlich has been a great leader for the Eagles and could contribute right away on special teams.

Round Six: T. J. Yates, North Carolina QB. The Pats pick up another dependable, productive QB from a solid system who will make a dependable, solid backup. (I mean, when you have Tom Brady, who wants to see anyone else under center?) Yates (6-3, 219) holds both the career and single-season passing records at UNC. When New England trades him for a second-rounder in a few years, we shall all nod with the understanding that this was part of the plan.

We’d like to see: Something about quarterback Josh Portis of California-PA intrigues us here at PD. He showed his ability to run (4.59 combine 40), yet he passed for over 6,000 yards in his two-year career. Maybe we’re just hearkening back to the days of Michael Bishop at backup QB, but it would really mess with opposing defenses to have someone like Portis take a snap once in a while.

Thoughts? Opinions? Martha Stewart crafts? Please post any or all of them below.

Email Chris Warner at [email protected]

 

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Pats Draft Scenarios: Day One

March 8, 2011 By 2 Comments

by Chris Warner, Patriots Daily Staff

We miss the good old days of the NFL draft weekend, spending Saturday and Sunday sitting on the couch, blogging, eating pizza and sipping diet Dr. Pepper.

(Sorry, ladies: I’m married.)

Over the next few days, we’ll be posting our thoughts on what New England might do on each draft day of the new, ratings-improved, three-day format beginning Thursday, April 28 with Round One. (Friday night will feature Rounds Two and Three; Saturday afternoon has Rounds Four through Seven – and no, I don’t know why I’m putting rounds in capital letters.)

Every year, it seems, Bill Belichick gets his team in prime position heading into draft weekend. And every year, it seems, he trades down to get his team in prime position for next year.

You’d think at this point that it wouldn’t be a surprise.

Due to such finagling of picks past, New England finds itself with two selections on Day One (17, 28). This gives them some serious bartering power. We’ll see if they use it.

SCENARIO ONE: The Big Kahuna

As mentioned in a previous PD piece, Coach Belichick could trade up for a top pick such as Robert Quinn of North Carolina. Despite some off-field issues (health questions and a suspension this fall), the pass-rusher helped himself during the NFL combine. His speed numbers (4.62-second 40) fit a running back, much less a 6-foot-4, 265-pound college defensive end.

Sure, there’s risk involved (What if he can’t stay healthy? What if he’s a jerk? What if he reads a headline that says “The Mighty Quinn” for the 7,000th time and loses it?). But for the past few years, New England’s defense has been like a drummer, bassist and piano player doing jazz: okay in general, but you need some sax.

Cal's Cameron Jordan

Sorry. It’s been a long winter.

Other looks: Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers, Cal DE Cameron Jordan and Alabama DT Marcell Dareus would each merit a trade up. All have the potential to start right away in New England’s defense.

If the Pats make a move for anyone other than a front seven defender, get me a throat lozenge because I’ll be screaming myself hoarse.

SCENARIO TWO: The Blue Chippers

With the depth in this draft at outside linebacker and defensive end, the Patriots should improve themselves by the end of round one.

At outside linebacker, we like Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue, Adrian Clayborn of Iowa and Justin Houston of Georgia. All can get after the QB, and all showed the quickness necessary to drop back into coverage. While Missouri’s Aldon Smith had an impressive combine, the sophomore’s lack of experience scares me off.

Defensive ends include Wisconsin’s J. J. Watt and Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward. When healthy, Heyward has changed games. Of course, “when healthy” is the Mephistopheles of introductory clauses, promising great things but always leading you astray.

Other looks: New England needs help on the offensive line. The one athlete who really pops out is tackle Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin. Watching him take on Clayborn in this highlight reel shows his agility and strength. He makes a top-ranked pass rusher look about as relevant as a tailor at a nudist colony. Mike Pouncey out of Florida could help the O-line as well.

So, Mr. Belichick, no specialists. No receiver (A. J. Green of Georgia), no running backs (Mikel Leshoure of Illinois, Mark Ingram of Alabama). Plenty of guys to look at on Days Two and Three.

Deal? Deal.

SCENARIO THREE: The Contributors (aka The Fans’ Nightmare)

Hey, it could happen. Maybe the coach will be too busy to consult PD on draft day and he’ll fail to heed our advice. In that case, he’ll trade down and get some less flashy players who will help the team – just not as much as we’d hoped.

Defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson of Temple, cornerback Jimmy Smith of Colorado and linebacker Martez Wilson of Illinois all fit that description for me. Each seems able to get onto the field and help the team out; none seems like an immediate game-changer in New England.

Coming up: Day Two possibilities, including wide receivers and running backs.

Email Chris Warner at [email protected]

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