PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 67% chance to beat the Denver Broncos. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 41 rushing yards and a 28% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 33% of simulations where Denver Broncos wins, Tim Tebow averages 1.04 TD passes vs 0.34 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.82 TDs to 0.73 interceptions. Willis McGahee averages 114 rushing yards and 1.11 rushing TDs when Denver Broncos wins and 71 yards and 0.52 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots has a 10% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is DEN +3 — Over/Under line is 46.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Playoff Odds

Rookie T.J. Yates led Houston to history Sunday with a dramatic comeback victory over San Francisco.  The win clinched the AFC South and the first playoff spot in history for the Texans.  Right now, the team also holds tiebreakers over New England and Baltimore for the top seed in the AFC.  The Patriots should be the next team to clinch their division as they are 99.8 percent likely to do so according to simulations.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are still battling for the AFC North crown and seeding with the Ravens currently leading at 58.2 percent probability.

Tim Tebow and the Broncos made the biggest jump this week after finally taking over the lead in the AFC West outright.  Denver gained 21.7 percentage points in playoff probability, and is 62.3 percent likely to win the division. On the flip side, Oakland dropped 15.7 percentage points to be just 34.1 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  San Diego kept its slim hopes of salvaging the season alive with another win, but still lost ground because of the Denver win.  The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 in 10 simulations.

With Baltimore and Pittsburgh both 10-3, there is only 1 remaining playoff spot available in the AFC.  The Jets have won three straight games and are currently the most likely team to win the final Wild Card spot.  New York gained over 20 percentage points in playoff probability from last week, and is 46.1 percent likely to make the postseason.  Despite a run of poor form, Oakland is still next in line at 34.1 percent.  Tennessee couldn’t pull off the upset against New Orleans and is 24.4 percent probability. The biggest loser this week was Cincinnati.  The shocking last second loss to Houston eliminated the Bengals from a shot (albeit long) at the AFC North, and pushed them to back of the line for the Wild Card.  They are currently 7-6 and make the playoffs in just 15.3 percent of simulations.

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

Well, here we are again, class. We’re faced with the usual conundrum. How do we judge the latest Patriots victory, a 34-27 win over the Washington Redskins which was their fifth straight and 10th of the year (the ninth straight time they’ve accomplished this feat, and 10th in 11 seasons)? Do we look at it as solely what it is, a win? Or do we nitpick? Because if we want to do the latter, there’s plenty of material to work with, starting with yet another barely JV performance by the league’s worst defense, which allowed season-highs to a mediocre offense up and down the stat sheet for what seems like the umpteenth time this season while making still another mostly incompetent quarterback look like some sort of mutant hybrid of Dan Marino, Johnny Unitas and Otto Graham.

But instead, this week, we’re going to stick to what the script should be, which is that the Pats won the game. They didn’t do it flawlessly but they won it anyway, and nothing else, at least for now, is important. Oh don’t worry. We’ll get to the defense and its overall inability to get better, regardless of the weekly litany of personnel changes in the secondary and the regular alterations of scheme and look. And there is no reason to ignore some of the issues of the offense, which posted more than enough points to win and rolled up well over 400 yards but still featured some problems that must be solved headed into the playoffs. But in the end, it’s another win and that, as they say, is why you play the game. So with that, let’s get to this week’s report card, still winning your hearts week in and week out.

OFFENSE: B
Quarterbacks: B
This was not Tom Brady’s best game. He’d probably tell you that it ranks among his worst of the year. In the first half, he was uncharacteristically wild, completing less than 50 percent of his passes. and seemed to have a hard time getting on the same page as his targets on and off throughout the afternoon. He picked things up and then some in third quarter when he was 9-of-11 for 148 yards and two TDs, but even though he led a very proficient fourth quarter drive that should have sewed up the game, he threw a horrible pick in the end zone to close that one out (perhaps you recall that play; it resulted in the sideline screaming match between him and offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien that resulted in O’Brien needing to be restrained, Bill Belichick to intervene and sports media folks across the region leading their coverage of the game with it). But still, he made plays when they needed to be made, was on target enough and showed once again that there are few QBs as dangerous in the pocket as he is. Brady finished with 357 yards, threw three more TDs (giving him 33 on the year and 294 on his career, good for sixth most all-time) and averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt. The Redskins hadn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all year until Sunday and Brady, with the help of his offensive line, was able to avoid the pressure of a Redskins pass rush that’s been excellent all season, perhaps the strongest aspect of their team. Time and again, especially in the second half, Brady stepped up, waited, maneuvered, dodged, slide-stepped and finagled his way out of certain trouble to make throws that didn’t seem possible. The best of them all was probably his third TD pass, a 24-yarder to Wes Welker on which he waited and waited and waited and pump faked and waited and glided forward while Welker got free running across the field, hauled in the pass, shed a tackle and ran it home. The interception was unfortunate (although, surely much to the consternation of Pats haters, the aftermath wasn’t so bad, especially considering both Brady and O’Brien’s subsequent reactions to it) and the lack of accuracy and failure to communicate properly with his receivers, particularly in the red zone (he missed on at least three open throws in or near the end zone by unofficial count) was slightly alarming. But if a day like Sunday for a guy like Brady still nets 34 points and a victory, Those things, even sideline fights with coaches, are OK.

Running Backs: C
The Patriots are not committed to running the ball. They have four, sometimes five backs who all get carries but none of get too many. They lose sight of the fact that their most successful offensive days occur when they balance their offense instead of throw twice as many times as run (or, like last week against the Colts, keep chucking it despite a four-TD, fourth quarter lead). So with that in mind, it’s tough to grade out this group. They managed to gain four yards per rushing attempt on the day and that’s pretty good. Danny Woodhead, who led the way with eight whole carries, averaged five yards every time he got the ball in his hands. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has been buried since his huge game against the Jets back in Week 5, particularly over the past three weeks (25 total carries), managed 19 yards on his five attempts, including a failure to make a first down on a third-and-1 early in the fourth quarter (though in his defense, the play call – an off-tackle to the left – was absurd and he was probably ice cold given that it was his first carry since early in the second quarter). Kevin Faulk saw a handful of snaps and looked old. And while we’re here, why is Faulk, regardless of his status as a highly respected elder statesman, getting reps over rookie Stevan Ridley? Has Ridley really fallen that far since his September/early October breakout? The rookie didn’t play a single down on Sunday which makes little sense if he’s healthy. The Redskins have been linked to an age-old football proverb this season which states that if you have two QBs, you really don’t have any. I think we can tweak that one just a little bit to include the Pats; if you have five running backs, you don’t really have any. Maybe they know that and that’s why they won’t run the ball more, even when the situation practically screams for it.

Wide Receivers: B
It’s pretty much all Welker here. Surprise! There were a couple of throws on which he and Brady weren’t on the same page, an unusual development to be sure. But in the end, he had his requisite, excellent showing, finishing with seven catches for 86 yards and that score, and becoming just third receiver in league history to catch at least 100 passes in four seasons. The other two? Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison. Pretty decent company, ya think? Welker’s most appealing characteristic is his work ethic and man, can you see it on the field. One of the reasons Brady finds him on all those long wait in the pocket plays is because he’s constantly buzzing around the field, doing anything to get open. At least five seconds passed on his TD catch from when he broke into his route off the line of scrimmage until he made the grab but the play was there because he never gave up on it. At this rate, Welker will probably finish up with about 120 catches, around 1,600 yards and 11-12 TDs. Oh and did we mention he’s a free agent after the season? The Pats routinely don’t pay anyone who doesn’t play a core position (QB, offensive or defensive line) unless his name happens to be (gulp) Chad Ochocinco. But they’d be wise to pay Welker at least what Chad is getting. There is no one like him and the Pats wouldn’t be a 10-win team en route to another post-season berth without him. Deion Branch played 46 snaps, made no catches and looked lost both times Brady threw him the ball before missing the last two drives with an injury. The Pats can get away with Branch not showing up from time to time given their other weapons in the passing game. But as the No. 2 receiver, those instances need to be less frequent. High-top fade master Tiquan Underwood, the point man in the Brady/O’Brien fracas, got Branch’s reps on those two drives and made a catch while the previously mentioned Ochocinco crawled out of his hole to make one catch for 14 yards before retreating to his gigantic pile of money to resume his season-long hibernation. Chad played four snaps out of 59 on Sunday. Underwood played 11. Insert punchline here.

Tight Ends: A
If Rob Gronkowski wins the AFC Offensive Player of the Year award, will the trophy be remade into a miniature gold cyborg furiously spiking a football? Hearing Dan Dierdorf call him a monster on the CBS telecast on Sunday was pretty entertaining though not remotely as ebullient as Gronk’s first quarter diving catch after which he got up, broke a tackle, made his way toward the sideline, threw a couple of Redskins defensive backs off, almost fell out of bounds, tiptoed his way to getting his balance back, barely flinched as yet another DB flew into his knees and bounced off and stumbled, finally hitting the turf after a 50 yards gain. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said afterward his players were “embarrassed” that they couldn’t tackle Gronk, who was shedding everyone in his wake, including star defensive lineman Ryan Kerrigan, all day. Shanahan should tell his defense not to feel so bad since Gronk does this to everyone. Oh yeah, he also broke the all-time record for most TD catches in a season for a tight end, resetting the number at 16, while going for a career-high 160 yards receiving and diving into the stands after his second TD of the day, naturally, right into the lap of a fan wearing a Pats jersey. There doesn’t seem to be anything Cyborg Gronk can’t do (he played every down again on Sunday). He’s the best tight end in the league and there’s no reason to assume he’ll do anything going forward but keep getting better. And on this week’s episode of “The Forgotten Man,” Aaron Hernandez caught five passes for 84 yards, looked like his usual enormous wide receiver self on a couple of em but dropped a TD pass. Come on, A-Herb! Brady’s trying to get you one too. Catch the ball!

Offensive Line: A-
Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo are studs coming off the edges of Washington’s defensive line and between the two of them on Sunday, they had two tackles. So so much credit for this has to go to Matt Light on the left and Nate Solder on the right (with honorable mention to both Gronk and Marcus Cannon, each of whom saw a little bit of work against Kerrigan and Orakpo). Brady didn’t have to worry too much about pressure from either one of those guys which had ot have been a huge load off his mind. There were problems with pressure up the middle in the first half though, as newcomer Nick McDonald couldn’t sustain the great pace he set last week against the Colts. There was some credence given to the idea that some of the offense’s lack of cohesion in the first half was due to some mixed signals between him and Brady and when he was replaced by Ryan Wendell in the second half, the first half issues seemed to dissipate. This will be something to keep an eye on going forward, at least until Dan Connolly is healthy enough to play. Elsewhere, Logan Mankins was big in this one and also managed to escape yet another game penalty free. And Brian Waters continued to play like an All-Pro, calling most of the signals, and making the block of the day on Woodhead’s run the play before the end zone pick. As has been mentioned here before, along with Andre Carter, Waters is by far the most important, best free agent signing of the year.

DEFENSE: D+
Defensive Line: C-
All year long, the Pats strength on D has been up front. With the exception of the Albert Haynesworth debacle, everyone in this group who plays more than five snaps a game (hello, Shaun Ellis!) is having a good year, with Carter and Vince Wilfork playing at an exceptional level. This is why it was so bizarre to see this bunch get dominated the way it was on Sunday. The Redskins played without either of their starting tackles, yet managed to gash the Pats for 170 yards rushing at five yards a clip. That’s 170 yards on 34 attempts. That stat was written twice so that the next one would sink in a little quicker: The Redskins came into the game second to last in the league in rushing at 87.5 yards per game. Two dudes named Roy Helu and Evan Royster did all this damage, by the way. It’s not like the Skins still have Clinton Portis or even Earnest Byner, Terry Allen or even John Riggins for that matter. Carter did have a super strip sack in the first quarter and Wilfork fell on the loose ball in the end zone for his first career TD. And Brandon Deaderick had a sack too and looked very strong and agile in filling up the defensive stat sheet. But at the end of the day, this group must play better if for no other reason than when it plays as poorly as it did on Sunday, it exposes the secondary even further. If the opponent can run the ball with as much freedom as the Redskins ran it on Sunday, the defensive backs, already so limited in being able to defend the pass, are at an even further disadvantage, even against a QB like Washington’s Rex Grossman. Give these guys credit for holding Washington to just 2-for-5 in red zone opportunities and 1-for-3 on goal-to-go plays. They’ve held up very well inside the 20 all year. But the run defense must get better soon, especially with a game against Denver, which runs the ball more than anyone, on tap.

Linebackers: B
That’s two career interceptions in two weeks for Jerod Mayo and while both of  ‘em were big, the one on Sunday was immense. With the Redskins poised to tie the game in the waning seconds and the defense doing everything it could to not close out yet another game, Tracy White made a great play on receiver Santana Moss, who was streaking over the middle, drilling him just as Grossman’s pass hit his hands. The ball literally popped into the air and Mayo, who’d been cramping up all quarter long and had to be helped off the field, made a diving catch, just getting both hands underneath the ball before it hit the ground. He was swept away on a few of the Redskins running plays but he’s certainly not alone in that department. Mayo, who led the team in tackles, broke up another pass and just missed a sack on a perfectly executed delayed blitz, has been playing as well over the past three weeks as he has in the last two years and it’s a real credit to him how he’s raised his game. He’s becoming more than just a reactionary backer who makes a ton of tackles after medium to long gains. He’s becoming an impact player and lord knows the Pats need as many of those as they can get their hands on. More positives from the linebackers in this game than from any other level of the defense. Dane Fletcher returned from his long, injury induced absence and played a big role with eight tackles and another near sack while playing 49 of 75 defensive snaps. And Rob Ninkovich submitted another strong game with seven tackles including two for a loss while playing the whole game. But the real story here again is White, who has completely supplanted Gary Guyton in the lineup (altogether now… PHEW) and just keeps making plays. He not only made Mayo’s INT possible, he broke up another pass and had a handful of tackles. The Pats have had to do so much mixing and matching with personnel on defense this year that it’s particularly gratifying to see some of the special teams/free agents/scrubs make a consistent good impression. White is at the top of that list. Here’s hoping he still sees a good number of reps when Brandon Spikes returns.

Defensive Backs: D-
It’s starting to become no fun to pick on Devin McCourty. He was so completely and utterly hopeless and simultaneously helpless in the first half on Sunday, it was sad. The Redskins, who again, start Rex Grossman at QB, had 463 total yards and while more than a good chunk of those came on the ground, the fact of the matter is that over 300 of them came through the air and guys like Donte’ Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney, the Nos. 3-4 receivers on the Pats in 2007, shredded this putrid group. Stallworth, who had his best game in four years, torched McCourty for a 51-yard bomb in the first quarter and Gaffney settled right in like so many other receivers underneath the Pats deep deep deep zones they were in for much of the game and finished with six catches for 92 yards. To McCourty’s credit, he bounced back from his miserable first half to make multiple big plays in the second, breaking up three passes, two of which would have been huge third down conversions and making his first pick of the season only to see it wiped out after a brutal, phantom roughing the passer call on Carter. And he did some of it with his previously separated shoulder dangling from his torso. It would be great to think that McCourty turned some sort of corner after playing so well in the second half, But there’s a long, long way to go before he’s anywhere near where he was last year. After that, take your pick who you want to criticize. Redskins receivers ran free pretty much all day. They scored a TD on a double reverse option pass from one receiver (Brandon Banks) to another (Moss), a ball that was underthrown by almost 10 yards but it didn’t matter because no one in a Pats jersey was within 40 yards of Moss, who’s only Washington’s leading receiver. James Ihedigbo, who only had to be helped off the field twice in this one, had as rough a game as he’s had in a while, Nate Jones had a robust one tackle while playing all but nine snaps at safety, and Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater looked like wide receivers trying to play new positions for most of the day. Look, it’s hard to imagine this getting much better. The bottom line is the talent and the Pats don’t have much of it in the defensive backfield. Guys aren’t getting cut and re-signed and cut and re-signed again for any reason other than that they can’t really play, only there’s no one out there better who can replace them even semi-permanently. Maybe McCourty figured something out. Maybe if Patrick Chung ever plays again, he’ll do something positive. Maybe the Pats will get through a game without some combo of their defensive backs wildly chasing/flailing after some wide open receiver having the game of his career at least five times. But seeing as how it happens with regularity pretty much every week and we’re now into the final quarter of the season, it’s hard to imagine any of those dreams coming true.

Special Teams: B+
Slater may be getting used to playing safety but he’s still a cracker jack special teamer. He downed a first quarter punt inside the Redskins 5, which led to the sack/fumble/TD three plays later. Excellent work. Our man Zoltan had another terrific day punting, booming three kicks for a 45 yard average while avoiding any of them being returned and placing that first quarter one in the perfect spot. Stephen Gostkowski hit all four extra points and both short field goal attempts. And the kick coverage team held the Redskins to minimal yards on six returns. Only the Pats return game, which was, is and probably will remain dismal, brings this grade down.

Coaching: B-
There were a few head-scratchers from the sidelines in this one, starting with the reluctance/refusal to run the ball more. And facing a QB like Grossman, who makes as many, if not more, bad decisions and stupid mistakes as any signal caller in the league, playing as far back as the Pats were for a lot of the afternoon seems odd even with the personnel shortcomings. Why not put more pressure on the guy and try to force him into screwing up rather than just roll out the same extra defensive backs and super conservative, vanilla deep zone coverages? This is hardly a suggestion that playing further up on the Redskins receivers and maybe incorporating more man coverage would have worked; it probably wouldn’t have. But nothing else has really worked all year either, especially the super deep zone looks, so against a disaster waiting to happen like Grossman, why not? On the plus side, the O’Brien/Brady spat was an impressive piece of coaching by the OC and the adjustments made on offense from the first half to the second changed the general tenor of the game for the Pats. Again, Belichick seems to be OK with getting gashed between the 20s as long as his defense holds up in the red zone, something it’s done all year. And, as has been mentioned here several times, giving up 463 yards, even to a team that averages just 320 per game, is OK as long as the point total is down. Given that the Redskins scored 10 points more than their season average, this philosophy is a little harder to stomach after Sunday. But a win is a win, no matter how it looks. And Belichick, O’Brien and the rest of the coaches will surely take it.

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 78% of simulations over the Washington Redskins. Tom Brady is averaging 295 passing yards and 2.34 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 44 rushing yards and a 34% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 22% of simulations where Washington Redskins wins, Rex Grossman averages 1.67 TD passes vs 1.1 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.14 TDs to 2.12 interceptions. Roy Helu averages 104 rushing yards and 0.81 rushing TDs when Washington Redskins wins and 57 yards and 0.28 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots have a 59% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 89% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is WAS +9 — Over/Under line is 48

AFC Playoff Chances

Tim Tebow did it again.  After more late game drama – this time in Minnesota – Tebow led his team to a win.  Denver has now won 6 of its last 7 games, and took over first place on the strength of a tiebreaker against Oakland.  The Raiders are still the slight favorites according to the computers, winning the AFC West 45.9 percent of the time.  The Broncos win the division 41.6 percent of the time.  A week ago the Raiders were nearly 80 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  Now they are just a 50-50.  Denver basically has the same odds as Oakland to reach the postseason, gaining nearly 19 percentage points over last week.  San Diego kept its slim hopes alive for a late run at the division title with its first win in eight weeks.

Aside from the AFC West, the other divisions look to be all but over.  New England is the leader in the East, Houston in the South, and either Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the North.  Whichever team doesn’t win the North will take one Wild Card spot.  That leaves one spot open in the postseason with four 7-5 teams vying for it.

Both West teams are in contention for the final Wild Card depending on which ultimately wins the division.  The other squads involved are the Bengals, Titans, and Jets.  After Week 13, AccuScore simulations favor both AFC West teams to make the postseason.  Cincinnati is next at just under 40 percent probability, but that is 17.7 percentage points worse than a week ago.  Tennessee gained 8.6 percentage points after a solid win over the Bills.  The Titans are 31.7 percent likely for the playoffs.  New York is really in a bind because it does not currently hold tiebreakers against its direct competition for the final playoff spot.

By Jeremy Gottleib, Patriots Daily Staff

Is there really such a thing as an ugly win? Does it really matter how the W is procured, as long as it is, especially in the NFL, a competitive entity in which there are but 16 games?

It’s the whole Tim Tebow argument. Some are disgusted and appalled both at the way he plays and how the Denver Broncos have time-traveled their offensive approach back decades so as to get the most out of Tebow’s limited skills as a quarterback. Others look at his 6-1 record as a starter, five straight wins, first place in his division and say, “who cares?”

These thoughts come to mind on the heels of the Patriots 31-24 win over the once formidable, now hideous Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Colts have not won a game all year and are destined for 0-16. The Pats, the No. 1 seed in the AFC, needed to win the game 100-0 to appease their critics (and let me just tell you, that still wouldn’t have been enough, but that’s another column). They didn’t win 100-0, though. They bobbed and weaved their way to a 3-3, second quarter tie, taking their time both to wake up and to assess how best to take on their opponent, each now weekly staples of their games, before scoring 28 straight points to open up a 31-3 lead with 4:13 left to play in the third quarter. Then, the defense packed it in while the offense struggled to make any positive yardage for the remainder of the afternoon. What should have been a blowout became an escape, an onside kick away from being a complete, unmitigated disaster. The concept of finishing games playing a full 60 minutes has been in play since the game ended (Tom Brady even said on the radio yesterday that he would, “really love to see what happens if we play a full 60”) as well it should. There’s no reason a JV outfit like the Colts should score three TDs on you in barely a quarter and a QB like Dan Orlovsky should go 30-of-37 for 353 yards while looking like the man he’s replaced (hint: it’s Peyton Manning) regardless of how statistically bad your pass defense is (note: the Pats are still on pace to allow the most passing yards in a single season in NFL history). Sure, most of the damage inflicted by the Colts was pure, unadulterated garbage time, but Bill Belichick (who seemed to coach this game as if working in a laboratory, which we’ll get to later) still sounded like he does after a loss in his post-game remarks while several of the players echoed his sentiments. And as well they should have. Because even though a win is a win, how you do it at least kind of matters, especially with the playoffs looming. So with that, let’s get to this week’s report card, brimming with style points as always.

OFFENSE: B
Quarterbacks: A-
Brady started out a little slow and in the fourth quarter, while the Pats were still in no-huddle and throwing, he, like his defensive teammates, seemed to peter out a bit. But in the middle of that, he was spectacular. After the Colts tied the game at three less than a minute into the second quarter, the Pats got the ball back and punted. Following a three-and-out forced by the D, Brady took over and led four consecutive TD drives. The Colts, in addition to everything else, are mostly incompetent on defense, even though several of the players who have starred for them in their glory years (Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Jerraud Powers, Antoine Bethea) are still there. Anyway, Brady exploded the minute the Pats started to hurry things up, making his usual wide array of throws while also taking advantage of everything the Colts gave him, and that was a lot. He finished 29-of-38 for 293 yards and a pair of TDs and it should be noted that four or five of those incompletions came in the fourth quarter and a third TD pass was changed to rushing TD as it was ruled to have come on a lateral. Brady now has the most yards of any QB through 12 games in NFL history and is on pace to break Dan Marino’s all-time single-season yardage mark. More importantly, he has now thrown 30 TD passes again and hasn’t thrown a single pick over the course of the team’s four-game winning streak. And he has done all of this both having been relieved in the fourth quarter of the Pats last two games due to lopsided scores and without the benefit of a consistent running game. And he even threw two passes to Chad Ochocinco and Chad even caught one of them. It’s hard to get much better than Brady right now unless your name is Aaron Rodgers. He’s still what makes the engine run smoother than silk.

Running Backs: C-
24 carries for 73 yards for this group and the Colts came in ranked 31st in the league against the run. Not good. Maybe all the shuffling of personnel is to blame; the Pats came out with Kevin Faulk getting carries before turning to BenJarvus Green-Ellis before giving Danny Woodhead a couple reps before going back to Benny (who scored another TD despite only managing 14 yards on a measly six attempts) before giving Stevan Ridley the bulk of the run in the second half (which amounted to eight carries). The Pats were still throwing in the fourth quarter up big, which would have been a perfect time to run clock and give Ridley a chance to really do something for the first time in weeks (as it’s been with Shane Vereen the past couple weeks). It will be interesting to see whether or not the Pats try to get the running game going again in the final four weeks of the year; it could come in very handy for them in the playoffs and as we’ve seen throughout the season, even when the passing game is firing on all cylinders, as it’s been over the course of this winning streak, the offense is best when it’s balanced. It wasn’t at all on Sunday but that’s OK, they got away with it thanks to their weak opposition. Still, it will be nice to see more production out of this area moving forward.

Wide Receivers: A-
Brady threw 11 passes to Wes Welker. Welker had 11 catches. If that’s not completely a byproduct of the two of them again virtually sharing the same brain, then it can at least in part be attributed to the Colts playing their defensive backs 10-12 yards off the ball all day. Welker is most dangerous catching the ball underneath so the Colts simply sat back and let him do it all day long (and you wonder why they’re 0-12). At one point, CBS analyst Rich Gannon pointed out that Welker was simply sprinting off the line of scrimmage at the snap, stopping after eight yards and turning around. It was like a 7-on-7 practice drill. It doesn’t get any easier than it was for Brady and Welker on Sunday and now Welker has 11 more catches and 110 more yards to add to his season totals (now clocking in at 93 grabs and 1,253 yards with four more whole games left to play). Deion Branch caught three passes for 37 yards, one of which was his patented comeback route and netted the Pats a big gainer. Even Tiquan Underwood got in the act, actually catching the one pass that came his way, instantly making him more productive than the complete and total bust that was Taylor Price (yet another relatively high pick misfire). And again, it would be a huge mistake not to mention Ochocinco, who got the biggest ovation of the day when he hauled in that 12-yarder. Of course, when Brady went back to him on nearly the same play a few snaps later, Chad dropped the nearly perfect pass despite being wider than wide open and then was not seen or heard from again all day. But hey, baby steps are always necessary when you’re making $6 million, or way more than Welker, right? Right.

Tight Ends: A
It’s not getting boring doling out all these A’s to the tight ends, believe me. Not when it means we can discuss Rob Gronkowski even more than we already do. Cyborg Gronk tied the all-time record for TD receptions by a tight end, then set a new one before it was determined that it was indeed that lateral discussed earlier. No matter, he’ll just have to do it next week and given the pace he’s on, whatever number he finishes with will be so high, it’s unlikely that anyone will ever break it. Except maybe him. Because he’s a cyborg. Gronk caught five passes for 64 yards and the two scores as well as running the third one in and what was most striking about all of the was that the Colts didn’t even bother to cover him. Didn’t they watch any film leading up to the game? They did fire their defensive coordinator last week and his replacement last called a game in the Canadian League in 1983. But honestly, haven’t they been paying even the slightest bit of attention? Guys weren’t just not covering Gronk in the red zone, they were running away from him, even as practically every route he ran was his bread and butter seam pattern. Gannon exclaimed at one point, “If you don’t cover Rob Gronkowski in the red zone, you’re out of your mind!” The Colts are out of their mind. And Gronk is soon to be in NFL record books. And, in the week’s edition of “The Forgotten Man,” Aaron Hernandez had his usual solid, productive day, catching seven more passes. A-Herb may be wondering why he doesn’t get to score any TDs at this point. After all, he only has a paltry five on the year. Why does Gronk get to score all the time? Is it because he spikes the ball so furiously? Is it because he’s a cyborg? Don’t be surprised if A-Herb gets his one of these weeks. He’s been nothing but the good soldier all this time, doing so much dirty work while his running mate gets all the glory. Don’t worry, A-Herb. It will all sort of come close to evening out someday. Just keep plugging, you little bugger!

Offensive Line: B+
A bit of a downgrade given the lack of any push in the running game against such a soft defense but on a day like Sunday, that’s mostly nitpicking. Moving on, the conversation can’t go any further without mentioning center Nick McDonald. McDonald, on the practice squad until Saturday, made his first career NFL appearance while becoming the fourth center employed by the Pats this season. With Dan Koppen on IR since Week 1 and both of his fill-ins – Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell – ailing, the Pats had to send someone out there to snap the ball to Brady and McDonald acquitted himself brilliantly. With some family and friends watching from the stands (as of just a couple weeks ago, he figured he’d be up there with them), McDonald played a clean game, had no issues with getting the ball to Brady either from the shotgun or when the QB was under center and fit in seamlessly to all of the protections and alignments. It probably helped to have a cagey veteran like Brian Waters (another excellent performance) on one side of him and a superstar (Logan Mankins) on the other but make no mistake; McDonald deserves a truckload of credit for his game on Sunday, a fact that was not lost on either Brady or Belichick in the aftermath. Elsewhere, it was business as usual. Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon filled in for Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle and neither of the two rookies missed a beat. Colts pass rushing demon Robert Mathis, who, to be fair, is having a down year like all the rest of his teammates, has terrorized Pats right tackles in the past (hello, Nick Kazcur!) but barely got near Brady all day. And on the other side, Mathis’s partner in sacks Dwight Freeney, didn’t get that close, failing to even appear on the stat sheet. It was great work on those two by the Solder/Cannon combo and Matt Light, in addition to any other help they got from Gronk, et al. Any time Brady can exit the game looking as clean as he did when he entered it, especially with the post-season on the horizon is a good one. And cheers to Mankins for getting through his second straight game without a penalty. Here’s hoping he keeps the streak alive in Washington this Sunday.

DEFENSE: C-
Defensive Line: B
Make no mistake; nearly all of this grade goes to Vince Wilfork. Big Vince was more immense than usual on Sunday, leading the team in tackles with 10, one of them for a loss, and also getting in on the pass rush, sacking Orlovsky in the first half and getting a good hit on the Colts QB on another occasion. Belichick called it a “tremendous game,” for Wilfork, later expounding on that by calling him “outstanding.” Wilfork is enjoying arguably his best season, showing talent and ability in certain aspects of the game we didn’t know he could. He’s roaming more, not just playing in the middle of the D-line, which has freed him up to get to the opposing QB on occasion as well as snaring a couple of INTs. Sunday may have been his best game of the year. Otherwise, it was kind of a quiet day for this bunch. Andre Carter was held in check for most of the afternoon as was his counterpart in pass rushing, Mark Anderson, who didn’t play as much as he’s been playing (25 defensive snaps). And it was slightly alarming that the Colts, who came in ranked 26th in rushing offense, seemed to be able to run it on the Pats front four (99 total yards on the ground) even though the Pats were ahead most of the afternoon. The Pats started the game in a nickel and played that way for a good chunk of the day, perhaps aiding in the Colts running success. Kyle Love had another strong game and has firmly entrenched himself as a stalwart in the middle of the defense (he played just five fewer snaps than Wilfork), so that’s a positive. Overall, there needs to be more pressure from these guys. The games in which the defense has played its best have been the ones in which Carter and Anderson have been able to get after the QB, thus taking some of the onus off the defensive backfield. They’d be well served to get back to that sort of play soon.

Linebackers: B
How about Jerod Mayo? Sure, the majority of his seven tackles were well up the field. But how about that INT, the first of his career? He read Orlovsky perfectly, broke off from his assignment, doubled back and made a full out dive to pick the ball out midair. It was a super athletic play and a reminder that Mayo, for all of the criticisms leveled against him (hello, self!) is a very good player who’s lack of impact plays throughout his career is more a product of the Pats general defensive scheme and his role within it. He also tipped a shoulda been TD pass in the end zone on the Colts long first and second quarter drive, a big factor in them having to settle for a field goal. It was Mayo’s best game since his return from knee injury suffered in Week 4 and arguably his best of the season. Rob Ninkovich was his usual solid self again too, registering another sack (his third straight game with one), managing another hit on Orlovsky and making a nice play on Colts back Donald Brown for a loss of yardage. ESPN’s Mike Reiss made note yesterday of Belichick calling Ninkovich over for some strategy talk on the sideline at one point, a true testament to how important he has become. Brandon Spikes’s role was filled in a rotation by Gary Guyton, Tracy White and Niko Koutouvides, who started and played significant time on defense for the first time since he played for Seattle in 2006. He held up well, making the third most tackles of anyone on the defense (seven) and even doing some covering thanks to his good speed. The Pats are developing depth on defense as they go forward with all of these free agents and castoffs and the linebacker spot is proof positive of that. When Spikes gets back, Belichick will have evidence that guys like White and Koutouvides can play in sub packages and fill in at important times if he needs them.

Defensive Backs: F
It was like a nightmare you thought you’d never have again. The secondary, so much improved over the past three or four weeks, suddenly looked like it had reverted to Pittsburgh week or even the first three weeks of the season. Orlovsky’s numbers for the day are listed above; in the fourth quarter he was 18-of-20 for 240 yards and two TDs.  No one in this group played well; many of them played like shit and you can put season-long whipping boy Devin McCourty at the top of the list. Playing in his first game since the Jets game from three weeks ago, McCourty looked as bad as he has all season. If he’d been any good at all before his shoulder injury, perhaps his struggles could be attributed to rust. But since McCourty, for whatever reason, has followed up his excellent rookie year with one of the worst sophomore slumps known to man, it was just another link in a chain of hideous games. Not only was he burned repeatedly by Orlovsky and Pierre Garcon (nine catches, 150 yards, two TDs) but in run support, the only area of the game in which he’s played semi-decently all year, he was brutal too. Brown scored a TD on a five-yard run in the fourth and on the play, McCourty came up to set the edge, was late, took a bad angle, wound up waving at Brown and hit the deck. It may not be a coincidence that the defense’s best games of the season were the ones in which McCourty did not play. Going forward, given the way all teams throw at him time after time after time (when you can’t even handle getting picked on by Dan Orlovsky for god’s sake, you know you suck), the Pats are going to be at a big disadvantage unless they give him a lot of help. Matthew Slater, receiver and special teams ace, played all but three snaps at safety. Yep, safety. Remember when it was mentioned that Belichick seemingly coached this game as if he was in a laboratory? Well, here’s example No. 1. Slater actually played pretty well but there’s no reason to believe this will be a regular thing. The brightest spot of all was Nate Jones, signed off the street this past week, playing 69 snaps and looking pretty good in doing so both playing safety and slot corner. He had nine tackles and broke up a pass and made more of an impression in one afternoon than Phillip Adams, the man he replaced, made in several weeks. And that’s about it. Belichick confessed that the Pats weren’t strictly in a prevent look in the fourth quarter which makes the end result even worse. This group, so much improved since Week 9 (the Giants game), took a huge step back on Sunday, reverting to the form that made scrubs like Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Hall of Famers back in September. On Sunday, they made Orlovsky look like Peyton Manning. Next up, Rex Grossman and the Redskins. It’s tough to make him look good. But if anyone can do it, it’s the Pats, particularly the way they looked on Sunday.

Special Teams: B
Yawn. Except for yet another All-Pro worthy game from our man Zoltan (four punts, 47 yards per), there was nothing really of note here. Stephen Gostkowski made this week’s 39-yard attempt and had a few touchbacks. Julian Edelman, absent from the defense this week, returned kickoffs as well as punts and did fine in both areas. There were two onside kick recoveries late in the game (surprise! one was by Gronk) and those were probably the highlight of the day for the Pats in this phase of the game.

Coaching: B
Dr. Belichick looked at this game, told anyone who would listen that the Colts are just as good as they always have been, then started Slater and Jones, two guys who hadn’t played with this defense once all year, and played them each the entire game. He had Koutouvides, purely a special teamer the past six years, starting at inside linebacker. He played James Ihedigbo, also primarily a special teamer before becoming the Pats No. 1 safety this year, playing a hybrid, safety/linebacker role in all of his nickel looks. And he kept Edelman and Sterling Moore, both of whom had played significant snaps the past three weeks, in mothballs until Moore emerged to get spun around and made to look foolish on one of the Colts fourth quarter scores. It was all very interesting and curious and seemed as though he was holding somewhat of a tryout against a team he figured he could beat with his eyes closed. He’ll never, ever admit anything like that, to be sure. But with truth serum? Maybe. The bottom line is that his decisions, however odd or inspired both or neither they were, didn’t cost the team a win, although it was close. What should be getting more publicity this week than his defensive personnel moves for the week is the fact that the Pats, even when they win convincingly, can’t seem to put a complete game together. 60 minutes. He talks about it all the time. Brady talks about it. Other players talk about it. So why can’t they do it? And if they don’t figure it out soon, will it come back to haunt them come playoff time? Again, the team is on a four-game winning streak and the fact that Belichick has cobbled together a mostly competent defensive unit with some of the guys he’s used speaks volumes about his coaching ability. Getting on him and his staff too much in the aftermath of Sunday’s fourth quarter is at the very least, a little nitpicky. But you can be certain the players will hear about it all week. And come this Sunday in Washington, we’ll see if he got his message across.

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 94% of simulations over the Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady is averaging 299 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 74 rushing yards and a 55% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 6% of simulations where Indianapolis Colts wins, Dan Orlovsky averages 1.65 TD passes vs 0.47 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.97 TDs to 0.94 interceptions. Joseph Addai averages 41 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing TDs when Indianapolis Colts wins and 26 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 64% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 97% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -21 — Over/Under line is 49.5

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

Doesn’t it seem like ages ago when all the haters out there were standing tall, beating their chests and harping on the completely hackneyed idea that Patriots coach Bill Belichick is finished? Three weeks by unofficial count. Over the course of that stretch, the Pats have embarked on a three-game winning streak during which they’ve rolled up an aggregate 109-39 margin of victory. That’s an average of about 36- 13. Washed up? Hardly.

The latest example of the Pats rise from some mid-October ashes came on Sunday in Philadelphia where they beat the miserably coached disappointments of the season also known as the Eagles. After falling behind 10-0 early thanks to a couple of deep passes hit by Philly backup QB Vince Young, the Pats regrouped, adjusted to what the Eagles came out showing them and blew the doors, scoring 38 of the next 48 points en route to a 38-20 victory that wasn’t remotely that close. The Pats continued to click on offense while getting just enough out of their undermanned, no-name defense and took great advantage of the horrible, misguided coaching of the Eagles, a team that will never, ever win anything as long as its current head coach and staff is in charge. But perhaps most impressive of all, the Pats continued to display their team wide toughness and resiliency. Playing undermanned yet again, on the road, against a desperate team and falling behind early, they simply got up, dusted themselves off and took the game over, dominating from the 8:19 mark of the first quarter and well beyond the 8:35 mark of the fourth, the time of their final TD, when the miserable Eagles fans left Lincoln Financial Field en masse while calling for the head of coach Andy Reid. With five games left, all against mediocre competition, there’s no reason to think this team won’t finish 13-3 and given the lack of any real dominant team in the AFC, there’s also little reason to believe that despite the post-season failures of the past couple years, that they can’t make a playoff run. But those are conversations for down the road. For now, let’s get to this week’s report card.

OFFENSE: B+
Quarterbacks: A
Early on, it looked like another week of waiting for Tom Brady to get his tennis elbow loosened up before the Pats offense could really get moving. But as opposed to the past few games, this week’s wait lasted one drive. The second time they had the ball, the Pats went 80 yards in 12 plays over 6:52 of clock time and it was off to the races. Brady completed passes to just four receivers but who cares? He was surgical in doing so, looking vintage in picking apart the Eagles woeful pass defense, which chose to sit back in a soft zone all day while Brady found one wide open man after another. He finished the day 24-of-34 for 361 yards and three TDs and even though he got hit a couple times early, his uniform was virtually spotless when Brian Hoyer took over with seven minutes left to play (even after running the ball five times for 28 whole yards and looking slower than a walrus in the process). Brady was on the same page as all of his intended targets all day, looking otherworldly in completing long catch-and-runs to Deion Branch, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. He and Branch looked like their 2004 selves in recognizing one of the many dead spots in the Philly D and turning a 10-yard comeback route into a 63-yard sprint while he communicated telepathically with Welker on a 41-yard TD pass, the first of two to Welker on the day. Brady has always been a master of taking what the defense gives him. On Sunday, the Eagles gave him whatever he wanted and he responded just like the Hall-of-Famer he is.

Running Backs: B
It took 36 carries for the Pats to gain 104 yards on the ground (and Brady had the highest YPA with 5.6). But when BenJarvus Green-Ellis got rolling early, it set the stage for the play-action pass, which in turn softened up the Eagles defense even more, enabling Brady to do whatever he damn well pleased. BJGE finished with a modest 44 yards on just 14 carries, but he scored two TDs (the Pats first two of the game), his first time reaching the end zone since Week 5. Elsewhere, it was a mixed bag. No one else carried the ball more than seven times (Shane Vereen, who gained 18 yards again all in garbage time, but showed some more impressive credentials in doing so). Danny Woodhead continued to deliver when called upon, picking up 20 hard earned yards on just four attempts. About the only place to find anything to complain about was yet another no-show for Stevan Ridley (four carries, four yards), who has completely fallen off the map since his breakouts of Weeks 3 and 4. It would be nice to see the Pats commit a little bit more to the run; there were 36 runs against 34 pass attempts but several of the rushes came after the game was well in hand and while it’s nice to see the coaching staff try to keep everyone involved, shortening the rotation a bit, especially given Ridley’s struggles, might be a good idea. But these are minor problems at most. The paltry YPA notwithstanding, Sunday was a successful day for the running game.

Wide Receivers: A-
Boy were Welker and Branch awesome on Sunday. The duo combined for 240 yards and two TDs on 14 catches and both were so zeroed in with Brady, it was a sight to behold. Welker, who now has 82 catches for 1,143 yards and eight TDs on the season, looked as tough and powerful on his second TD as he did instinctive and smart on his first. It was another one of those option routes on which he can decide midway through whether or not he’s coming in or going out and on this one, he stayed inside, picked the ball out of the air and raced to the pylon, reaching for the score with a dive and just sneaking it in. And Branch, who was lauded over and over again by Belichick after the game (at one point, the coach said that, “we could all learn a lot from spending time around a guy like Deion”) had his best game since Week 2, a major development given how little there is at the wideout position after you get past him and Welker. The Eagles and their awful defensive scheme played right into the hands of a receiver like Branch; in-cuts, hitch and comeback routes within 10-12 yards of the line of scrimmage, open on nearly all of them. It was a banner day for these two, so much so that Tiquan Underwood (yes Tiquan Underwood, signed this week to replace Chad Ochocinco, as if anyone would have missed him) dropping a sure TD pass right on his hands in the second quarter was completely forgettable. About the only curiosity here was the absence once again of Taylor Price, who was dressed but didn’t play a single snap. The guy has been here almost two years and some practice squad scrub (Underwood) jumped him on the depth chart despite being signed to the active roster about 15 minutes ago. If things weren’t going so well right now, this could be cause for alarm. As is, it’s merely a head-scratcher.

Tight Ends: A
Rob Gronkowski, cyborg extraordinaire, took a huge hit early on and seemed to take a while to get on track after that (he even had to come off the field for a play). But in his stead, Hernandez stepped up and provided his usual steady as she goes performance. A-Herb caught six passes for 62 yards and it seemed like something cool happened on all of them. One was a one-hander snared right at his waist in traffic. Another was a simple slip screen on which he showed some of his wide receiver-like skills in eluding a couple would-be tacklers and outrunning a couple others. A-Herb has taken a back seat to the Gronk Show the past few weeks but make no mistake, he’s so so good and if he stays healthy and in everyone’s good graces, he may wind up just as valuable as Gronk somewhere down the line. As for Gronk, his numbers were down a bit this week but naturally, he scored a TD on a 24-yard strike from Brady, the TD that completed the scoring for the Pats on the day. Even on his quieter days, the T-One Million still provieds plenty of positives.

Offensive Line: B
More injuries to this group; Sebastian Vollmer, who has been off all year, mostly because of being hurt early in the season, suffered a foot injury and missed the second half. Before that, he was blown away on the only sack allowed by this group all day. Vollmer was so good last year that his shortcomings this season have been far more glaring. It will be interesting to see how well he functions when fully healthy, even if that doesn’t happen this year. Brian Waters gave up a couple holds late in the game but otherwise was his usual dependable self, looking back at Brady before every shotgun snap then passing information along to third-string center Ryan Wendell as well as helping shore up that part of the line in addition to handling his own responsibilities. Waters has been an unsung hero this year; he’s easily the most important free agent acquisition along with Andre Carter and his presence has been invaluable. Matt Light shook off last week’s ankle roll and played very well and Logan Mankins somehow avoided a penalty. Imagine that. The Eagles strong suit on defense coming in was their pass rush but they only registered the one sack and even though they were buzzing around Brady a fair amount in the first quarter, only two hits on the Pats QB were recorded. Not too flashy, but very nice work by the boys up front.

DEFENSE: B
Defensive Line: B
Not too much from this group in the way of individual efforts but that’s OK. It’s not their fault that Reid predictably chose to ignore the fact that he has the NFL’s leading rusher and rushing offense and that the Pats allow over four yards per attempt by giving all-world back LeSean McCoy 14 touches for the entire game. A real coach who knew what he was doing and wasn’t stubbornly married to the same philosophy regardless of personnel that has never really worked for him in 12-plus years would have recognized that McCoy should have carried the ball at least 25 times. But that’s a digression; what’s important is that while the Pats didn’t get the pressure from up front that they’ve been used to the past few weeks (Carter and Mark Anderson had relatively quiet afternoons), they got enough and were able to stifle what there was of a running game. The Eagles leading rusher was Young and it’s a safe bet that Belichick and his staff prayed for such a circumstance while getting ready for this game. The biggest game from this group came from Kyle Love, who stuffed some run while also getting to Young a couple times. Everyone else, even Shaun Ellis and Jermaine Cunningham, who combined for seven whole snaps, was solid.

Linebackers: B+
In the absence of Brandon Spikes, Rob Ninkovich continues to have the most impact among this group. Ninkovich, who spent a fair amount of time lined up down with the big guys, rang up another sack while also contributing two tackles for negative yards and another hit on Young. Ninkovich seems to play like this in spurts; he’s been great the past three weeks but had been near invisible for a stretch right before that. Here’s hoping if he goes to sleep at any point in the near future, he wakes up by the time the playoffs roll around. Jerod Mayo had three tackles but one was for a loss as opposed to after 12 or more yards and he’s presided over this defensive renaissance so more power to him. And Tracy White has mercifully, officially supplanted Gary Guyton as the third backer without Spikes available, playing 64 of 73 snaps (as opposed to 11 for Guyton) in addition to all of his special teams duties. He had four tackles and covered pretty well too, giving up one significant pass on a play where he was in the right place, just a little but slow to react. White has been better than Guyton consistently since starting to get run with the regular defense a few weeks ago and he most definitely deserves to keep getting playing time when Spikes returns. Another fine day for the linebackers.

Defensive Backs: C+
A good chunk of Young’s 400 yards passing came late, when the game was out of reach. But 400 yards passing still doesn’t cut it. Credit should be given to Antwuan Molden, who had his best game as a Patriot by far and registered his first career INT. BUt after that, you have to go down the line to find another good performance and when you do find it, you may be surprised to know who it belongs to. Yep, it’s Julian Edelman, who after Sunday, can legitimately lay claim to being the Pats second best corner with the secondary as presently constituted. Edelman is instinctive and smart on defense and boy, can he tackle. He couldn’t have made a better play on a scrambling Young to prevent what would have been a huge first down inside the Pats 5 in the third quarter, lining up the Philly QB, keeping his eyes centered, holding his ground, making a big stick and wrapping Young up before flinging himself and Young to the ground. There were a couple of other plays he woulda/shoulda/coulda made if not for getting screened out of blocked; the point is, he knows how to play the position and he’s been playing it at a fairly high level for three weeks now. When Devin McCourty comes back (likely this week against the Colts), Edelman may get fewer snaps back there but it stands to reason the way he’s played that he should be covering the slot at least instead of Phillip Adams. It’s true. Julian Edelman is currently the New England Patriots second best corner, trailing only Kyle Arrington, and the New England Patriots are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Unbelievable.

Special Teams: B-
Seeing Stephen Gostkowski miss another very makeable field goal (39 yards) was disheartening though he redeemed himself later on with a 45-yarder. And there was actually a kick return that went past the 20 when Woodhead ran one back 34 yards. And once again, the majority of the praise has to go to our man Zoltan, who is making a real case for being the best punter in the AFC. He averaged over 48 yards on three boomers and put two of em inside the 20. Eagles return man/receiver/knucklehead DeSean Jackson is one of the most dangerous punt returners in the league and he had exactly none on the day. Good work, Zoltan. And of course, we have to mention Edelman, whom I’m terribly sorry I questioned a few weeks ago, again. In addition to playing offense and defense, he returned a couple punts and made a tackle on kick coverage too. James Ihedigbo is calling him Slash. A perfect moniker.

Coaching: A-
Another slow start though that seems to be OK with Belichick and staff. It’s like they rope-a-dope their opponents for a few minutes, trying to draw them out, see what they’re thinking, before turning around, dodging what’s being thrown at them and exploding. On offense, the coaches saw that the Eagles could be run on early and that would soften them up underneath, so they pounced. And on D, they knew early on that the Eagles wouldn’t dream of running so they played pass and even though there were a ton more yards allowed, they held firm with their standing as 10th in the league in points allowed, a number far more important that yardage totals. Along with the excellent in-game moves, the work done during the week must be mentioned; given everything stacked against the Pats coming in, the fact that they were so ready to play and so well prepared, in addition to the players toughness and fortitude mentioned earlier, spoke volumes. Of course, when a guy like Belichick goes up against a guy like Reid (who, in addition to everything else, now has to deal with a couple of his assistants getting into it on the sideline during the game), it’s almost always going to be a mismatch and if you don’t believe that, just look at the adjustments made by both teams during the game. Oh wait, you can’t. Because the Eagles didn’t make any. They didn’t recognize that the Pats were on to them early so they didn’t change a thing and thus, are now done. It never helps when guys like Jackson drop multiple perfectly thrown TD passes or when Young, playing in place of Michael Vick, who to be fair is having a lousy season, makes some of the decisions he made regardless of the 400 yards passing. But when the opponent’s coach is as outclassed and overmatched as was the case with Reid on Sunday, not only does it make life easier for the Pats, it magnifies just how good Belichick is and just how good a job he and his staff are doing. The Eagles have supposed All-Pros up and down their roster and they’re 4-7, losers of five out of six at home. The Pats start Sterling Moore at safety and have their No. 4 receiver making plays at cornerback. And not much more need be said.

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 84% of simulations over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is averaging 318 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 61 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 15% of simulations where Kansas City Chiefs wins, Tyler Palko averages 1.64 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.09 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. Jackie Battle averages 67 rushing yards and 0.45 rushing TDs when Kansas City Chiefs wins and 49 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -14 — Over/Under line is 48