By Dan Zeigarnik, Patriots Daily Staff

It is amusing to hear all the ‘are the Patriots going to go 13-3?’ talk after Monday night’s pounding of the lowly Chiefs considering how dire the situation looked just a few weeks ago.

Don’t get me wrong, achieving a 13-3 or a 12-4 record is an amazing feat regardless of how it is achieved and it would be hypocritical to say otherwise. However, after being burned in recent years by a 16-0 and a 14-2 season, fans have been quite loudly yearning for playoff victories and getting their hands one more time on a Lombardi trophy before Belichick and Brady’s glorious careers finally sunset.

So with this in mind, can the cupcake schedule of facing Colts, Broncos, Redskins, Dolphins and the imploding Bills really prepare the Patriots for a playoff run?

Everyone is well aware of how beat-up the Patriots defense is and how they rank dead last in yards allowed, but fewer people are openly discussing the Patriots offensive woes. The Tom Brady-led high-powered machine, surgically cuts up opposing teams and usually has to wave off claims of whether running up the score is unsportsmanlike or not.

However the game plan to stop New England is pretty straight-forward:

• Create pressure on the quarterback with just a four-man rush
• Doubleteam Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski
• Win time of possession battle by continuously converting third downs.

Tom Brady, like every other mortal, is much less accurate when he doesn’t get a chance to set his feet. The pressure also disrupts an already average rushing attack, forcing Brady to make the perfect pass every time. Obviously, this is much easier said than done, and can only really be accomplished with an amazing defensive line. However, some of the teams that the Patriots will have to face in the playoffs can execute the above stated game plan.New Englandwas bounce three times in recent history with just such a game plan. This year the losses to the Steelers and Giants were eerily reminiscent of the Patriots past January woes.

So how is playing some of the worst teams in football going to help the Patriots get ready for the post-season? Sure, they will be able to get healthy without losing ground in the standings, and their confidence and momentum will be high, which shouldn’t be understated. However, achieving a 13-3 or 12-4 record without facing a playoff team after Thanksgiving should give pundits and fans pause.

Therefore, we should not overlook the Eagles just because they are 4-6. They just beat a good Giants team and have a great defense when they’re not shooting themselves in the foot. For the Patriots sake, I hope that the Eagles don’t implode and are able to give the Patriots their last real test before the playoffs start.

By Dan Zeigarnik. Patriots Daily Staff

What a whirlwind the last 3 weeks have been. I know that everyone talks about the ups and downs of an NFL season, but I don’t quite think that having our fans yo-yoing like an ADHD sugar-laden kid is what we had in mind.

"It is what it is."

Just a week ago all the focus was on the atrocious losses to Pittsburgh and Giants. The Patriots were gutted by the Steelers, who seemed to have broken historic ground by discovering that they could send a tight end right down the middle of the field and that the opposing defense, having never seen this kind of play before, would have no choice but to clear out. This was followed up by an eerie Eli Manning game winning drive that was topped off by yet another number 85’s gut-wrenching catch. Despite all this, I am here to say, ‘do not lose all hope, oh ye of lil’ faith.’

Since when have Patriots fans taken on the Yankee fan-like attitude towards local sports teams? Red Sox fans circa 2003 remember how much the New York’s championship-or-bust attitude was loathed. The most grating of which was the fact that they expected to be the predominant favorite going into spring training and then again at the All-Star break. Any kind of deviation from their inevitable juggernaut machine was met with panic, firings, and frantic over-purchasing of players. Red Sox fans, besides the obvious disdain, felt a kind of pity, because they understood that a true fan enjoys the ups and downs and isn’t just a auditioning for Extreme Hoarding- Championship Ring Edition. I hope that Patriot fans are better then that.

Then from the pits of this despair, a much needed win came against the Jets, an inconsistent team, headed by an inconsistent quarterback. For some inexplicable reason all is cured in Patriots land. Just a few weeks ago, 98.5 the SportsHub turned itself into a Center-For-Ridicule: a place to unload all of your anger and frustration. The hosts were insulting members of the coaching staff for the fact that some of them were at one time graduate coaching assistants in the NCAA’s. Fans were even calling into the station and demanding Belichick’s head.

Now, after sweeping the Jets in an incredibly satisfying fashion, the Patriots ‘have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL’ and therefore it is a given that they will have homefield advantage in the playoffs. Everyone remembers slaughtering the Jets in Week 13 of 2010 by a score of 45-3 and how seamlessly that translated into the beat-down the Pats laid on them once again in the playoffs. Whoops.

It’s true that the Patriots remaining 2011 opponents (Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins and Bills) aren’t exactly a murderers row. However, if the Patriots had lost to the Jets, would that schedule somehow gotten harder? Does beating the Jets somehow prove that the 2011 Patriots are for real? Does it eliminate the fact that New England has no deep passing threat, an inconsistent running game and an incredibly porous pass defense?

No it doesn’t. The 2011 Patriots are not an amazing team and that should be OK. They are 6-3 with an inside track of winning the AFC East which is laudable. They have swept the Jets and they did it without Spikes, Chung, and McCourty on defense. The rest of the regular season should be focused on getting healthy and hitting a hot streak in the playoffs.

Pats fans need to stop comparing their team to the ideal and start comparing the Patriots to the rest of the AFC Elite: Houston has lost Schaub for the season. Pittsburgh, despite crushing the Patriots, lost to Houston, got embarrassed by Baltimore, and barely beat Jacksonville and the Colts.

As far as the Bengals go, four of their wins were against basement dwellers Seattle, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis, so it won’t come as much of a surprise that they lost to Denver…..Sorry I just took a knee to pray for a second because the Bengals have two games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore still left on the schedule

Ravens looked like a beast against Pittsburgh, but lost to Jacksonville and Tennessee and needed a 21 point comeback against the lowly Cardinals. Their running game and defense is stellar but their quarterback leaves much to be desired.

Nobody is arguing that being the predominant favorites going into the playoffs isn’t a great thing. But let’s not turn into Yankees fans and throw hissy fits every time the Patriots lose its first regular season home game in 4 years or back-to-back games against two of the league’s better teams.

Just try to keep in mind that the 2010 Packers, 2007 Giants, and 2005 Steelers won the Superbowl as wild card teams. That’s 3 in the last 6 Super Bowls! So it’s all about making it to the playoffs and getting hot, and not because Eli Manning had a game-winning drive in Week 9 or whether the Patriots can clobber Mark Sanchez in Week 10.

Let us enjoy each week for what it is and not extrapolate too much from each win or loss. Otherwise we too might need a ritalin prescription.

By Bruce Allen, Patriots Daily Staff

It is ridiculously easy to be hypercritical.

Anyone can do it. People of questionable intelligence can make an incredible living off it by hosting sports talk radio shows. It’s also a no-lose proposition, which is why so many of them do it.

Here’s a little tip for you aspiring sports media professionals out there. Pick against the local team far more than you do for them. Why? You can’t lose. If the team loses, you can sit there all smug and talk about how YOU predicted this. YOU saw this coming. If the team wins, no one cares, because they’re so happy that the team has won. See how simple it is? I’m not advocating a Fred Smerlas-like streak of picking the Patriots to win every game for 10 straight years here, but I’m saying if there is any doubt on a game, pick the home team to lose.

This also applies when analyzing the moves and decisions of the team, especially when done so in hindsight. Facts are facts, right? When looking long-term, again, it is to your benefit to pick failure. It is very hard to win in the NFL, and the odds are in your favor if you predict that a team will suffer a playoff loss. You can be as edgy and critical and negative as you want, because the chances are good that the team will not win the Super Bowl every year, and if they do, again, no one is likely to call you out on it.

So many people believe that the term objective actually means critical or negative. Only the “objective” folks see the flaws and mistakes made. Anyone who attempts to point out silly things like wins and losses, or to point out things are were done well or correctly, are labeled “fanboys.” It’s just how it is these days.

It used to be that supporting and rooting for a team and giving it your unwavering support was considered loyal. Now if you do that, you’re just a simpleton “fanboy” who roots for laundry and can’t think for himself.

Despite all that you’ve heard or read in recent weeks/months/years, the Patriots are still a very good football team. They actually do make some decisions and moves that are correct and good for the team. Contrary to the opinions of some, they do have an idea of what they’re doing down there. (Wait – I can hear it already - They haven’t won a playoff game in four years!!!!!! – which is true.) Again, I want to point out that it is HARD to win in the NFL. The other teams are getting paid and want to win too. Did you know that the San Francisco 49ers, in the midst of their great run in the 1980′s, with Joe Montana at his peak, lost in the first round THREE years in a row? Had Bill Walsh lost it? They came back and won back-to-back Super Bowls. It’s not unheard of for a very good team to lose in the postseason. Lets have a little perspective here.

The Patriots currently sit at 6-3 on the season, having completed the most arduous part of their schedule. With the injury to Texans QB Matt Schaub, the AFC is wide open. The Patriots are in a position to once again be one of the top seeds in the conference. Tom Brady has struggled at times this season, the defense has been dreadful statistically, yet they’re still wining. They must be doing something right. In the spirit of trying to counter some of the overwhelming negativity out there, let’s look at a few things the team has actually done right this season.

1.) Signing Andre Carter

While the trade for Albert Haynesworth and the signing of Shaun Ellis got much more attention, Carter has been perhaps the Patriots best defensive player thus far. His nine sacks in nine games have given the Patriots that pass-rusher everyone has been clamoring for. He has also been a professional in the locker room, adding a respected veteran voice to the young defense.  While Cris Collinsworth said on Sunday night that no one expected much from Carter, he has been a productive NFL player in the past, and is on pace for perhaps the best season of his career. A great move by the Patriots.

2.) Signing Brian Waters

With the retirement of Stephen Neal in the offseason,  the Patriots had a hole at guard. It appeared that Dan Connolly would be filling that spot, but the Patriots valued Connolly more as someone who could fill in all over the line. The decision to sign Waters has turned out to be huge, as he stepped in at guard in week one, and when center Dan Koppen was lost for the season, Connolly was needed to play center. It couldn’t have worked out any better for the Patriots, as Waters has played at his usual high level this season (Peter King has him as a mid-season All Pro) and has been another professional veteran example in the Patriots locker room.

3.) Drafting Nate Solder

When the Patriots drafted Solder, and not a pass rushing defensive end or linebacker, there was the usual hand-wringing, especially as tackle didn’t seem to be the team’s most pressing need. With Sebastian Vollmer severely limited this season with back issues, Solder has been forced into the starting lineup for several games, including the season opener in Miami, where he impressed with his play against Cameron Wake. It was thought that Solder would be given a year to acclimate before taking over for Matt Light, but Solder has been good as a starter, and if Vollmer can return to full health, the Patriots should be set at both tackles for many years.

4.) Re-signing Logan Mankins

Mankins hasn’t been his usual All-Pro self, but signing him was nonetheless a huge move for the Patriots. After the ugly, protracted contract battle, getting the guard signed signaled that the Patriots will pay the guys they feel are important enough to the core of the team. Mankins adds toughness on the offensive line, and is especially protective of Brady whenever little scuffles break out. He’s still relatively young, and should serve to help transition the offensive line to when Solder, Vollmer and Marcus Cannon are the mainstays up front.

 5.) Re-signing Matt Light

Keeping with the offensive line theme, it seemed like a given that Light would be back, but when the team drafted Solder, some thought that it might spell the end of the line for Light. While he’s never been an elite player, Light has been a Pro Bowl-caliber player throughout his career, and a leader on the line. Bringing him back proved especially important with the health issues of Vollmer, as Light’s presence allowed Nate Solder to fill in for Vollmer while Light protected Brady.

6.) Giving Kyle Arrington a two-year deal

With Devin McCourty’s struggles this season, Arrington has emerged as the Patriots top cornerback, and a playmaker at that position. Arrington’s five interceptions are tied for the league lead in that category. The Patriots could’ve just given him a one-year deal to keep his rights, but they rewarded his play from last year with a two-year deal. If Arrington continues his strong play, he might’ve been looking at a big pay raise following the season, instead, now the Patriots have him locked up for 2012 as well.

7.) Utilizing the no-huddle, hurry-up offense.

In the strategy department, the decision to try and wear out opposing defenses by keeping them on the field and preventing from substituting has been wise. They first did this in preseason, during the Tampa game, which had Bucs defenders talking after the game about how tough it was to defend when they never had a chance to catch their breath. The strategy paid off during the Jets game this week in the second half as they took advantage of a tired New York defense which just wasn’t ready to line up again, and was laboring to keep playing. This strategy will likely be used more during the course of the season, especially against teams who are determined to go all-out to get to Tom Brady. The Jets game also showed that the no-huddle doesn’t necessarily mean a hurry-up, as they went on an extended drive in the fourth quarter using the no-huddle, which essentially put the game away.

8.) Signing Mark Anderson

I hear skeptics dismissing Anderson’s five sacks because an number of them came “in garbage time.” Well, when you’re trying to put a team away, isn’t the best thing you can do is to sack the quarterback? It’s like bringing in your closer. The former Bear has been very effective in rushing the passer this season, and saw extended duty during the Jets game. Working him opposite Carter has given the Patriots a very good 1-2 combo that the opposing offensive line has to account for. He was a low-risk, cheap signing that has paid off for the Patriots.

9.) Drafting Marcus Cannon

Cannon’s story is well known by this point, the massive (6-5, 358lbs) offensive lineman was discovered to have cancer when taking his physical at the combine, which cause his draft stock to drop sharply. Once projected as a low-first or second round pick, the Patriots selected him in the fifth round, not knowing if he would even be able to play. Cannon responded well to treatment, and was placed on the active roster this morning. His story is inspirational, and his talent may make him the successor to Waters in the future.

10.) Moving Matt Patricia to safeties coach

This move might’ve seemed curious when it was made last offseason. Patricia is considered by many to be the de facto defensive coordinator. Putting him in charge of the safeties, which then included Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders and Jarrard Page along with Pat Chung, may have seemed like a step down from coaching the linebackers, which he had been doing. The move may have been an indication that the Patriots already had doubts about their personnel there, and putting Patricia there to work with the group may have given them enough to move on from Meriweather, Sanders and Page. Belichick himself also served as a secondary coach prior to becoming a defensive coordinator with the Giants, and may have placed Patricia there as a stepping stone to the role. In addition, Pepper Johnson, who with Patricia is considered the top defensive assistant, works with the defensive lineman. Moving Patricia to the secondary gives the team a top assistant with the front seven and with the secondary. I don’t know if that was the intent, but sort of splitting up the defense between the two of them makes sense, especially where there are so many young players as well as players new to the Patriots.

This list only includes this season, each season the team makes bad decisions and good decisions, just like every other team in the NFL. So while some will never tire of point out the bad decisions up and down the roster, there have been plenty of good ones, as well.

It’s easy to be critical. It’s a little harder to be objective and to look at the good as well as the bad.

Hopefully this serves as a reminder that the team has made plenty of smart decisions and that is why they continue to be successful.

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

It’s Jets week and that couldn’t come at a worse time for the Patriots. Suddenly, going back to their dramatic, comeback win over San Diego in Week 7, the Jets are looking like everyone thought they would and not the disorganized, confused, undisciplined mess they appeared to be up til that point. They are legitimately on fire headed into Sunday night’s home game against the Pats and are catching the local 53 at a horrible time.

After winning their first two games (the first with a virtual miracle over Dallas), the Jets tailspun into a three-game slide that included a loss in Foxboro in Week 5 in which they didn’t even try to exploit the Pats woeful pass defense, instead fruitlessly trying to jump start their non-existent running game. The result was a 30-21 loss but after a relatively easy win over the Dolphins the following week, they had the come-from-behind victory over San Diego and now seem on their way. Last week, they went into Buffalo to take on the surprisingly good Bills and blew them out, 27-11, looking like the same AFC finalists they’ve been the past two seasons. In that game, the defense posted one of its finest efforts of the season, holding the previously high-powered Buffalo offense under 300 yards while forcing three turnovers in the process. Their running game is working (126 yards against the Bills, 162 at 5.2 yards a pop against the Chargers) and quarterback Mark Sanchez is playing like the caretaker coach Rex Ryan wants him to be, throwing seven TD passes against just two picks and posting passer ratings of at least 87.1 in his last four games.

Sanchez’s recent success bodes very poorly for the Pats, who with the exception of the first half of their loss to the Giants last week, are shredded every week by the opposing quarterback, whether it’s a Super Bowl champ like Ben Roethlisberger or a scrub like Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. And with the Jets defense rounding into it’s usual form at the same time the Pats offense seems to have stagnated (under 20 points per game in their last three after over 30 per game in their first five), it could be a long night for the Pats.

The Pats have not scored a point in the second half of either game they’ve played in the Meadowlands since Ryan took the Jets job prior to the 2009 season. For the first time over that period, such a scenario doesn’t seem that far-fetched.

This Week’s Five Best Teams

1. Green Bay: The Packers fell behind early in rainy San Diego last week. So what did they do? They scored the next 21 points and 28 of the next 38 to run away from the still skidding Chargers, before fighting off a valiant comeback attempt by their hosts. Aaron Rodgers, still the best QB on the planet, had a ho-hum, 21-of-26, 247-yard, four TD performance. Home games against the Vikings and Bucs the next two weeks practically guarantee the Pack will be 10-0 on Turkey Day when they visit Detroit.2. Baltimore: They probably should have lost to the Steelers on Sunday night. And they played like absolute dogshit the previous two weeks in losing to Jacksonville and escaping the Cardinals. But the Ravens game-winning drive in Pittsburgh, which also happened to be the most impressive thing Joe Flacco has ever done in his four-year pro career, was one of the defining moments of the season. On the road against your arch-rival, a division game, barely a minute left and 92 yards to go needing a TD not just a field goal? Great, great stuff.

3. San Francisco: The Niners continue to roll, moving to 7-1 with a road win over the pathetic Redskins. The reason they aren’t one spot higher on the list? Only two of their seven wins came against teams with winning records. This week’s home game against the streaking Giants will tell us a great deal about this team.

4. New York Giants: After breaking the Patriots hearts, Super Bowl XLII-style, the Giants had suddenly won three in a row and six of seven and formed a borderline chokehold on the NFC East (really, who’s going to challenge them? Dallas?). The only thing more impressive than Eli Manning being a legit MVP candidate is how well the G-men keep playing despite the rash of injuries that have plagued them since the first week of training camp. Against the Pats, top running back Ahmad Bradshaw, top receiver Hakeem Nicks and starting center David Baas al sat out but they won anyway, and in dramatic fashion to boot. Their next five games are at the 49ers, home for the Eagles, at New Orleans, home for Green Bay and at Dallas. If they come through that brutal run at 3-2 or better, they can coast into the playoffs.

5. (tie) Pittsburgh/ New Orleans: Don’t weep too hard for the Steelers. The Ravens loss was a setback and their chances of winning the AFC North are slim. But they led with one minute to play. They’d won four in a row prior and convincingly. And they’ve been there. This team is still as likely a Super Bowl representative as any in the AFC. As for the Saints, their roller coaster continued with a big, division win over the Bucs. Now they get another division rival, Atlanta, followed by the Giants and Detroit with a bye sandwiched in there too. It’s make or break time for the Saints.

This Week’s Five Worst Teams1. Indianapolis: The Colts are 0-9, their clueless GM Bill Polian is spitting fire at the local media for daring to suggest his hiring his unqualified son for a major personnel role has damaged the franchise (what nerve!!). And their Sunday night game against the Pats has been flexed into a 1 p.m. slot… three weeks early. It’s kind of fun to see the Colts humiliate themselves weekly, isn’t it?

2. St. Louis: The poor Rams. They finally got on track with a huge win over the Saints in Week 8 and had the winning field goal lined up last week at Arizona. Then, the kick was blocked, the game went to an extra period and they allowed just the second punt return for a TD in overtime in league history (and by the way, it was a 99-yarder). Just one of those years, I guess. It can get better this week against the equally lousy Browns.

3. Miami: All that hard work finally paid off for the Dolphins, who took advantage of a let down, emotionally exhausted Chiefs team and ran them off their own field, 31-3. Matt Moore (yes, Matt Moore) was the league’s Offensive Player of the week (17-of-23, 244 yards, three TDs) and Reggie Bush finally seems to be getting it (28 carries, 195 yards his past two games). And they can make it two in a row with a home game against the Redskins this week. Hope the fans didn’t have their hearts too set on Andrew Luck.

4. Arizona: Needing a late field goal block and an OT punt return just to beat the Rams at home doesn’t exactly breed a lot of faith in the Cardinals. But a win is a win, they looked great at Baltimore last week before falling apart late and backup QB John Skelton looks better than starter Kevin Kolb against St. Louis. Hey, I have to write something here.

5. Cleveland: It’s hard to believe the Browns could be worse without Eric Mangini than they were with him. But everything they’ve tried since bouncing their former coach has failed including the offense, which wasn’t even Mangini’s strong suit. If team Grand Poohbah Mike Holmgren jumps ship after this season already, don’t be surprised.

What’s Trendy
- Jay Cutler, Bears: After beating the Eagles on Monday night, Chicago has a three-game winning streak. And while the key has mostly been the improved play of the offensive line, it’s impossible to ignore how well Cutler has played at quarterback. In the Bears last five games (four wins), Cutler has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes, thrown six TDs against just two picks and has been sacked just three times during the three-game run.

- Julio Jones, Falcons: The Falcons traded a huge chunk of their 2011 draft to get into the top 10 and take Jones, the giant, super-speedy wide receiver from Alabama. After he caught 11 passes for 127 yards in a Week 4 win over Seattle, it looked like the right move. But then he caught just one pass against the Packers in a Week 5 loss and missed the next three weeks with an injury. But he exploded back onto the scene last week against the Clts, with three catches for 131 yards and two TDs, both of which were spectacular. The Falcons seem to be rounding into form and Jones is a big reason why.

- Darren Sproles, Saints: One of the biggest free agent acquisitions of the year is a 5’6, kick returner/third-down back. Sproles has 793 total yards and five TDs through the Saints first nine games and that’s while sharing backfield duties with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and first-round pick Mark Ingram. He had 42 yards on just four carries and 57 yards on five catches and a TD in last week’s win over Tampa and is the team’s leading rusher.

What’s Not
- The Raiders:4-2 and looking as good as they have in years through their first six games, the Raiders have lost their last two, both in blowouts, one at home to Tim Tebow and the Broncos. Trading for Carson Palmer to replace the injured Jason Campbell at QB has been disastrous so far, the defense gave up just short of 300 yards on the ground to Denver and now there’s been talk of dissension against first-year coach Hue Jackson. Will this season become just another in a long line of Raider disasters? Stay tuned.

- John Beck, Redskins: Beck, Washington coach Mike Shanahan’s hand-picked choice to play QB, has not won a single start in nine tries since coming into the league with the Dolphins in 2007, is currently presiding over a four-game losing streak, has two TDs against seven turnovers in his four starts this season and has led the ‘Skins to 44 total points in those four games. Now would be a perfect time to rip Shanahan, the biggest fraud in the NFL going on 12 years now, but we do that almost every week. So we’ll just point out in no uncertain terms what seems pretty obvious – Beck sucks.

- The Seahawks: Man, is it getting ugly for Seattle and Petesy Carroll. The Seahawks have lost three straight and are averaging nine points per game in having done so. This week, they have the Ravens and their defense. Chalk up another in the L column.

And finally…
Just one more quick note on the Pats in this week of hand-wringing before the Jets game hits us on Sunday night. So much has been made this week, last week and in the recent past of Bill Belichick’s poor to dismal record in acquiring personnel over the past five years and while that’s almost entirely justified on the defensive side of the ball, there have been plenty of great moves on the offensive side. Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer, Brian Waters, Danny Woodhead, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have all been signed, drafted or traded for in the past handful of years and while that doesn’t eliminate the Chad Jackson in the second round disaster of 2006, or any of the misses on defense (Terrence Wheatley, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, Duane Starks, Deltha O’Neal and Shawn Springs just to name six in the defensive backfield alone), the Pats would not still be the perennial contender they are without any of those names on offense passing through town. It’s been bad, it really has. But it hasn’t been a complete disaster.

For the New England Patriots the 2010-2011 season ended with enormous disappointment.  The Patriots finished the regular season with a league-best 14-2 record and guaranteed home field throughout the AFC playoffs.  They had an impressive record of 6-1 against the 2011 playoff field.  The season ended, however, with an embarrassing loss to the rival New York Jets. Afterwards, Patriots owner Bob Kraft even questioned that game plan.  It was strange offseason with the lockout and an abbreviated training camp.  Despite last year’s failures the Patriots were still the consensus pick across the NFL and in Vegas to join Green Bay in Indianapolis.

Now at 5-3 the Patriots are at a crossroad as they hit the half way point of their season.  A win over the New York Jets this week and they are back in the driver’s seat for the division.  A loss and they will be on the outside looking in.   The Patriots should not be in this position, and contrary to what Ron Borges wrote Monday, this dynasty or “elite era” doesn’t need to end now.

However, barring a miraculous turnaround to the season it looks like it will be another failed bite at the apple for Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.  Things were going wrong awhile before Eli Manning’s winning touchdown pass on Sunday.  You have to go back to the end of last season to find the root cause of the Patriots journey to mediocrity.

1)      2011-12 Coaching Staff – A team that once boasted a staff of Charlie Weis, Josh McDaniels, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini and Rob Ryan is now left with Matt Patricia, Bill O’Brien, Pepper Johnson and Josh Boyer.  Johnson is the only one of the four with any strong links to the old regime having been trained under Crennel.  Peculiar that Belichick who once surrounded himself with experienced veteran coaches continues to chose this route.  Just look around the league and see what some experienced defensive coordinators like Wade Phillips (Houston), Mike Zimmer (Cincinnati) and Rex Ryan (Jets, albeit as a head coach) in relatively short time.  While the Patriots and Belichick are going on year four of a rebuilding process.

2)      2011 Draft – There were promising, impact defensive players available all throughout the first two rounds of the draft.  The Patriots ended up with an offensive tackle, a late first round pick in the 2012 draft, an oft-injured cornerback and two running backs that aren’t being used.

3)      2011 Free Agency – Because of the lockout, free agency didn’t start till the summer.  And because 2010 was an “uncapped” year there were an inordinate amount of Free Agents available on the market.  Peter King of SI, listed his top 50 Free Agents prior to the mad rush.

There were some impressive players on the defensive side of the ball, an area where the Patriots at the moment aren’t just bad, they are desperate.  One or two could have made a gigantic difference.  Just look at the numbers some of these free agents are putting up this year.

• Cullen Jenkins DT Eagles (5 Sacks)
• Jason Babin DE Eagles (9 sacks)
• Antonio Cromartie CB Jets (3 INT, 1 FF)
• Johnathan Joseph CB Texans (3 INT, FF, 10 PD)
• Dashon Goldson S, 49’ers (2 INT, 1FF, 39 tackles)
• Carlos  Rogers CB 49’ers, (3 INT, TD, 9 PD)
• Dawan Landry S Jaguars (53 tackles INT, FF)
• Matt Roth DE, Jaguars 3 Sacks)

The Patriots chose to shop at the bargain basement once again.  Brian Waters has worked out as a starting guard on offense. Defensive ends, Andre Carter and Mark Anderson have had their moments, but neither has shown to be consistent threats to the quarterback. The Patriots more than any team knew the landscape coming out of free agency, and with the draft already done they didn’t plug holes where they needed to, and they began the season almost $10 million under the cap. It’s OK to question if Robert Kraft is willing to go the extra dollar for a championship, especially, when you see the amount of undrafted and late round picks starting for this team.

4)      Two bad trades – Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco.   They have been busts through the first 8 games. Both players’ careers were already on downward trends which is why the Patriots were able to acquire them without giving up much in trade. Ocho’s $6 million price tag makes this gamble that much more painful and puzzling.

5)      Construction of the 53 man roster – Belichick always says he puts out the guys he thinks are going to give him the best chance to win. Watching this defense it’s hard to believe that cutting both starting safeties (Meriweather and Sanders), a slot corner (Leigh Bodden) as well as adding Shaun Ellis were the right moves. That is especially so when you see the likes of Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo and Phillip Adams roaming the secondary.

6)      The Danny Woodhead Experiment – I love Danny Woodhead, but unfortunately Bill O’Brien does too, and that’s becoming a bad thing. Woodhead is great in a defined role, which includes short passes out of the backfield and draw plays from the shot-gun.  But lining it up every week and running him off tackle is an exercise in futility.  Against the Giants it cost them on a key 3^rd and 1 and later it cost them a chance to run the game clock down to 1:15 after Woodhead got tossed out-of-bounds like a rag doll.  That inexcusable decision by O’Brien with BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the sideline was as big a contributing factor to that loss as any other mistake the Patriots made against the Giants.  The Patriots have other running backs that run better between the tackles, but O’Brien still hasn’t figured that out yet.  He’s still content with the Woodhead off tackle for a yard.  I’m focusing here on Danny Woodhead, but in contrast to last year, the play calling in general has been unimaginative.

7)      The  Bend-but-don’t-Break Defense – At this point, why not start taking chances?  The Patriots have stuck with an aggressive attacking style all season.  They had success against the Giants for most of the game by applying pressure.  When they backed off, Manning shredded them. Death by a thousand cuts is messy and it seems at times to disrupt the rhythm of this offense as they wait on the sidelines.

8)      Sitting tight at the deadline – The NFL Trade deadline is pretty quiet, WR Brandon Lloyd was perhaps the biggest name moved.  He was the NFL Yardage leader in receiving last year and played under the Josh McDaniels system. Lloyd was a free agent  at the end of the year and the Patriots did not want to waste a 5^th round pick on him, which is ironic, since they have wasted a lot of 2^nd and 3^rd round picks the last four years.

9)      Play the Kids – You drafted Jermaine Cunningham, Stevan Ridley, Taylor Price and Shane Vereen high because you expected they could be impact players.  They have all had injury problems, but when healthy they are still low on the depth chart.  At this point isn’t it time to take a chance?

10)   Too much pressure on Brady – Age is going to be a factor with Tom Brady in the very near future.  Is it starting this year?  It’s possible, but it also could be that the Patriots have structured team in a way that puts winning and losing all on Brady.  He’s had four mediocre to bad games and the Patriots have lost three of them.  He’s not the problem, but with no help on defense or special teams he’s becoming part of it.

Some would have you believe that the Patriots’ struggles this season didn’t happen overnight.  I’ve  made that point myself, but on the flip side, you can look at things under the microscope and realize that in the NFL you can also turn it around overnight.  I see an AFC field with flaws up and down, a few tweaks here and there and the Patriots could easily be the team to beat this season.  In January the Patriots might stick it to all the dissenters –  I hope I am one of them.

In 2001, they went from 6-5 to the Super Bowl.  That team did it with heart, determination, coaching and some pretty good talent.

This year they will have to overcome shortcomings in many of those same areas, shortcomings that are the result of bad decisions up and down the organization.

By George Cain,
Patriots Daily Contributor

#1 Tom Brady – There is nothing new or novel I could write about TB12 that hasn’t been covered by every sportswriter in the country.  This team goes as far as Tom Brady can take them.  That has not always been the case. During their Super Bowl appearances from 2001 thru 2007, Brady’s phenomenal play was offset by a professional, intelligent play-making defense. It’s easy to forget Brady throwing an interception in the end zone in the 2003 AFC Championship game against the Colts and later in the 2003 Super Bowl against the Panthers.  In both cases, the defense did enough to cancel out those key turnovers.  Today those mistakes would cripple this team.  Last year against the Jets, Brady threw a pick on the first drive and Alge Crumpler dropped a sure touchdown pass on the second drive.   Those two miscues lost the game because the defense was unable to make stops when they needed it.  The next five weeks are really going to clarify the picture with this Patriots team.  They play three very good teams on the road, (Steelers, Jets, Eagles), a good Giants team at home and an improving Kansas City team who let’s just say, knows this offense.  If the Patriots come out of the next five games at 3-2 they are looking strong at 8-3, with some very winnable games down the stretch.  The number one or two seed will most likely be in their grasp, but Brady will have to play similar to his 2010 form, with low turnovers and an offense that can score 30 every week.

#2 Jerod Mayo – This is a big season for Mayo.  He’s coming off an All-Pro year in which he led the league in tackles.  He was supposed to be the anchor on a new attacking 4-3 defense.  He is coming close to the end of his rookie contract.   Given all that, my question still, is this, who is Jerod Mayo?  He’s not Ray Lewis, he’s not Patrick Willis, and he’s not Brian Urlacher.  He has yet to prove he is the type of playmaker on defense that teams game plan against. Actually, the player he most reminds me of is Pepper Johnson, a solid middle linebacker who always did his job, but was never known for being a big play linebacker.  That worked well for Pepper, but he had Carl Banks and Lawrence Taylor alongside him.  Mayo has Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Spikes.  What the Patriots really need is another Tedy Bruschi. They don’t need a guy who just makes tackles. They need a linebacker who can change a game. Just off the top of my head I can think of three Bruschi’s interceptions that won games. There was a 4th quarter pick of Donovan McNabb in the Super Bowl, one against Detroit on Thanksgiving for a touchdown and of course, who can forget his interception against the Dolphins in a 12-0 win that led to an explosion of fireworks made from fallen snow. There were also two plays in the divisional round in 2004 against the Colts, where he ripped the ball out of Dominic Rhodes’ arms and later pounced on a Reggie Wayne fumble. Mayo doesn’t have any of these type of plays on his resume.  He’s injured his MCL for the 2^nd time in four years. He’s going to have come back stronger from this injury than he did in 2009, and the Patriots will need him to be a presence on the defense.

#3 Ras-I Dowling – Ras-I Dowling? The guy who has played in two games?  He’s been a complete non-factor all season, and that’s why I list him. Dowling can impact a secondary that has really struggled the past 3 seasons. Inconsistency has forced the Patriots to play a lot of zone coverage and give up a ton of yards. Belichick looked at the 2011 draft class and declared it to have as much depth at defensive line as any draft in recent memory. The Patriots had 3 picks in the first 33. There was no doubt going into the draft the needs were offensive and defensive line. The team was in dire need of a pass rusher. Belichick for reasons we’ll never know, chose not to move up for studs like JJ Watt, Nick Fairley and Ryan Kerrigan. He drafted Nate Solder at #17 and that pick, with the injury to Sebastian Vollmer, has looked good so far.

Could the Patriots have traded up and drafted an impact defensive lineman and then backfilled Solder’s spot later? That answer would most likely be yes. Instead they have a tackle that could be a major component of this offensive line for the next 5 years, minimum. It was a solid selection.

Then with the Patriots #28 selection, Belichick decided he didn’t like the value on the board for that spot. So he traded it to New Orleans for their #1 pick next year and the 2011 #56 overall selection.  The Patriots drafted Shane Vereen out of California with that pick. If you’re not familiar with him, it’s because he hasn’t really played all season. He hurt his hamstring in camp, and has been inactive in most weeks. He seems to be a redundant player behind Danny Woodhead and maybe Kevin Faulk.

So with the first pick in the second round the Patriots selected Ras-I Dowling. Dowling has the physique, the tools and the skill to be a top corner in the NFL.  Unfortunately, he has never proven that he can stay healthy and that trend continues to follow him into his rookie season. Belichick could have drafted defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard or outside linebacker Brooks Reed. Both are making an impact as rookies with Cleveland and Houston this season.  Belichick, however, felt another shut down corner alongside Devin McCourty was necessary. I can’t argue with that logic in what has become a passing league. I do question Belichick ignoring Dowling’s medical history.  This wasn’t picking Marcus Cannon in the 5^th round despite a non-Hodgkins lymphoma diagnosis or Brandon Tate in the 3^rd round coming off an ACL tear to run back kicks. This essentially was a first round pick for the Patriots, and they needed to hit on it.

Dowling’s injury history dates back to high school. He’s had hamstring, ankle, knee and now hip problems in his young football career. Hip injuries are NEVER a good sign at the pro level regardless of position. He only played in 5 of Virginia’s games last year. This year he has one preseason and two regular season games under his belt. Coming off a bye week where Dowling had ample time to rest, he STILL is not able to fully practice. He’s basically been hurt most of August, September and October. This is not good news for the Patriots who need him desperately.

If the Patriots plan on playing in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis in February they are going to need this defense to improve as the season goes on.   Dowling offers the most potential;  a big bodied defensive back who can not only play shut down corner but can help out as a Free Safety for a group who lacks play makers.

Belichick chose not to spend big on free agents.  He decided against a young defensive lineman.  He dictated the defensive backfield as an area that needed the most improvement.    If Dowling cannot offer help then the Patriots are depending heavily on average Safeties, an oft-injured Corner in Leigh Bodden, a hard-working but limited Kyle Arrington, and Devin McCourty, who thus far has been in a severe sophomore slump.

Last year despite a 14-2 record the Pats couldn’t get past the Jets. This season, without help, nothing will change. For most of us, it’s more than getting to the playoffs, it about winning it all and Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees will be there waiting.  The Patriots are going to need slow down these offenses. Dowling is going to have to get out of the trainer’s room and start to contribute.