We interrupt your normally scheduled Line ‘Em Up preview of the somewhat resurgent Oakland Raiders to bring you this special presentation of the New England Patriots Playoff Scenario for Week #15.

Two weeks ago, the national pundits (isn’t it interesting that the word pun is included in these so-called knowledgeable authorities’ titles) were ready to crown the Jets as the heir apparent to the AFC Champs (even ahead of the one-loss Titans).  Then, the titanic defensive powerhouse Denver Broncos and the offensive juggernaut San Francisco 49ers came along and destroyed that misconception.  Broadway Brett threw less than 400 yds total with no TDs and two picks.  It’s was nice to see that the Hayseed Dixie finally made his appearance in Gotham.  The Jets are so mired in bad vibes that WR Laveranues Coles is coming off like TO’s little bro.

Two weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins lost to the Pats and were just happy to not be the Detroit Lions.  Plus, they’re responsible for spurring on the latest wrinkle in the NFL a.k.a. the Wildcat offense.   Now, after beating downtrodden teams like St. Louis and Buffalo, the Fish received their Christmas present early - otherwise known as hope.  And hope is a dangerous thing in inexperienced hands like Miami.

And of course, I’m sure that everyone is well aware of the highs (comeback against the hapless Seahawks, Cassel’s bounce back from Pittsburgh) and lows (Pittsburgh game, more injured defensive starters, death of Cassel’s father) in the past two weeks for the New England Patriots.  Their 1-1 record seemed to reflect these up and down emotions.

What is left is a three game race to the end of the season for the AFC East title and quite possibly the only available playoff spot for these three teams. In a NFL season full of questions both on and off the field, the one that matters most to Patriots fans is: 

How the hell are they gonna make the playoffs?

As you’ve read from Scott’s solid analysis in previous weeks here at Patriots Daily, New England no longer controls their own fate and will need more than a little help from its AFC opponents to even find themselves in the conversation of an AFC East title as well as the one word Jim Mora, Sr. probably still hears in his sleep (or at least on those Coors Light commercials). Since the Jets and Miami play each other at the end of the season, there is no way for all three teams to win out the remaining three games.

So, to get everyone a proper dose of reality, here is a proper breakdown of just the AFC East battle for the regular season championship.

This Week - Seattle Seahawks (2-10; Against AFC East 0-2)

Due to last week’s debacle against the 2008 version of the Steel Curtain, the New England Patriots will probably have to win out and get a few presents from Ole Kris Kringle in order to make the playoffs.  That goal is still not out of the realm of possibility; although it would be nice for the Patriots to control their own destiny. 

If you think of it, those close losses against the Colts and the Jets are like the tortured Ghosts of a Playoff Berth Lost while the remaining three games (at Oakland, versus Arizona, and at Buffalo) are like the ethereal Ghosts of Possible 11-5 season.  That leaves this game against Seattle as the very real Ghost of the Trap Game. 

For those who may not know, a trap game is one where an obviously superior team overlooks a really bad team.  Although the Pats looked frustratingly flawed and confused against Pittsburgh, there’s not much of an argument that the Pats should beat the Seattle Seahawks.

This Seahawk franchise is almost like a microcosm of the US economy.  They were living high on the hog with a 5-year streak of playoff appearances (2003-07), a four year streak of NFC West division championships (2004-07) with a Super Bowl appearance in 2005.  But now, they have fallen on hard times with a 2-10 record and now are led by a Lame Duck (HC Mike Holmgren) and HC Select (Jim Mora, Jr.).  On Sunday, it is up to the Patriots coaches and players to avoid acting like a stimulus package to the recessional-looking ‘Hawks.

A perusal of the stats reflects a Seahawk team that can’t do much on offense and can’t stop anyone on defense.  Seattle ranks near the bottom on most offensive categories like Scoring per Game (25^th - 18.0), Total yards per game (30^th - 257.3), Passing Yards per Game (31^st - 148.8), Passing Plays over 20 yards (31^st - 20) and QB Passer Rating (29^th - 65.0).  In all honesty, there have been on-going injuries to the WR corps (Deion Branch especially) and starting QB Matt Hasselbeck, but as the old cliché goes, “Injuries are part of the game.”

Not surprisingly, the Seahawks have turned to the running game, which they have done relatively well (21^st - 108.5 yds per game) in comparison.  One rather surprising stat is that the “Hawks are tied (with Oakland, no less) for 8^th in the league with running plays over 20 yards (11).  The Seahawks employ a three-pronged running attack with Dallas transplant Julius Jones, change of pace back Maurice Morris and former Michigan State Spartan/well-traveled NFL veteran/Goal-line runner T.J. Duckett.  Those three have combined for a decent 10-game stretch for a regular RB (259 attempts, 1,099 yards and 8 TDs) but the running game is usually more effective when there is a definite lead back and Jones is not that back anymore.

Defensively, Seattle is actually worse.  They are giving up 25.9 points a game (26^th in the NFL), allowing 386.7 yards per game (30^th) and finish dead last in both passing yards allowed per game (265.2) and passing plays of 20+ yards allowed (44).  Lastly, only the woeful Detroit Lions are worse than the Seahawks in QB Passer Rating (99.3).  Only the common cold is as successful as the Seahawks opposing QBs.

The one phase that Seattle excels is at Special Teams.  They are 2^nd in the NFL with 1,457 KO return yards and are 3^rd in the league with a 25.1 average (with the 6^th most KO returns).  They are tied for 4^th with 37 KO returns of over 20 yards and tops in the NFL with 7 KO returns of over 40 yards.  All of these numbers come with only one fumble. 

Kick returns isn’t the only part of Special Teams that Seattle performs well. The Seahawks are 9^th in the league with 307 punt return yards for a 10.6 average (12^th in the NFL). 

On the coverage side, the Seahawks are 8^th in the league with a 65.6 kick-off average and is third in the NFL with 31.5% of their kick-off ending up with touchbacks.

So, how do the Pats avoid the teeth of the Trap Game and leave the city of Starbucks with a win?  Easy peasey. 

On offense, the Pats need to keep their playbook wide-open and continue to attack the Seahawks with the pass intermingled with running both Morris and Faulk with the Law Firm getting some at the goal line.  On defense, the Pats need to take away the run and force the Seattle QB to find his WRs.  And they should definitely practice on generating a decent pass rush; maybe getting newly signed LB Roosevelt Colvin back in the mix in obvious passing downs.

But the real key to a Pats win is to possibly generate some game-changing plays in the Special Teams.  That could be as simple as securing the ball on a kick-off, which the Pats haven’t well this year (tied for 2^nd in the NFL with 3 fumbled Kick-offs).  If anything has been shown by this season, the Pats can find ways to lose games.  I would rather not see the Seahawks win on a return for a touchdown due to a fumbled kick-off.

Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com.

This Week - Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3; Against AFC East 0-0)

Here’s a “Happy Black Friday” to all of the Patriots Daily readers.  It will also be a “Black Sunday” as the Blade will be host to the Steelers when they come out of the tunnel for the 4:15 PM EST kickoff.  Before we get into how the Pats will try to win the game, let’s start this off with some of the things everyone should know about the visitors.

Pittsburgh has the NFL’s Number 1 overall defense.  They are also #1 in the following defensive categories - Points Allowed (14.5), Total Yards per Game Allowed (235.4), Passing Yards per Game Allowed (168.8), and Rushing Yards per Game Allowed (66.5).  They are 3^rd in the NFL in Sacks Recorded (37), 3^rd in Rushing TDs allowed (4), 5^th in Passing TDs allowed (10) and tied for 7^th in Passes Defensed (71).  For a team is tied for 12^th in scoring offense, this type of defense is not only daunting but down right scary. 

Outside of the normal offensive mantra (control the ball, get manageable third downs and no turnovers), how do you score against this team?  Would you believe the old cliché - “A best offense is a good defense”?  In this game, that’s just what the Pats need to do to win.

The weakest link in the Steelers’ offensive game is actually the man behind center, otherwise known as Madden’s other QB man-love crush.  The singular-named Ben (since Old Man John can’t correctly pronounce his last name more than twice a game) has thrown eight interceptions, lost 2 fumbles, sacked 15 times and had an average QB Rating of 49.7.  Daunte Culpepper laughs at those stats, which is good because he needs a reason to smile right now.

It doesn’t help Crash the QB that the guys who are supposed to be his backfield are better at getting tackled than running.  They’re 25th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (a shade over 100 yds), 24^th in yards per rush (3.6) and are tied for 27^th in rushes longer than 20 yards (4).  I don’t expect these stats to dramatically rise against the Pats; even if Wee Willie Parker makes it back from a hobbled knee.

To have a chance to win against the Steelers, the Pats have to be aggressive with their defense.  If there is anything left in Capers tank, he needs to help Pees come up with some crazy blitzing schemes; both run and pass.  The Pats need to take away any kind of running game to force the issue with Roethlisberger and his accuracy issues. 

This Week - Miami Dolphins (6-4; Against AFC East 2-1; Against the Pats 1-0)

Man, I’m beginning to wonder if Coach Belichick and his coaching staff are forgetting to read my column.  I mean, he didn’t get my plans to expose the weakness of the Jets’ DBs by using 3WR/1TE or 4WR sets until near the end of the second quarter.  I guess someone on his staff must’ve remembered to look here in between the 2-minute warning.  Hopefully, with no more Thursday night games, it won’t happen again.

With that in mind, how should the Pats win against the streaking Dolphins, winners of four straight games, Mr. All-Knowing Football Man?  If you look at the stats, the trends are there for the reading.

On offense, the Pats need to continue to work on the 3WR/1TE sets from last week to keep the Dolphins nickel and dime DBs on the field.  The Fins are 23^rd in the NFL for passing yards per game.  The Pats also should go deep against the Dolphins as the Fish are 29^th in the league in allowing passing plays of 20 yards or more.  But since the Fins are in the top 10 in sacks, Cassel needs to get check down or rid of the ball if the deep ball is not there.  I do have another plea to have Cassel use the shovel pass up the middle and the WR bubble pass on the sides to tire the D-line and LBs.

With Sammy Morris coming back this week, he might be able to run better on the left side.  While I’m not a fan of running at the new Mouth of the South (Porter) and Holliday but prior to Game 3 of the 2008 season getting out of hand early, Morris did have some success on that side of the line and with a relatively healthy line, running the ball is a necessary component to a Pats victory.

On the defensive side of the ball, there will be visions of last week’s Favre check-down mode on the field by the Fish.  With Pennington behind center, the Fish are 9^th in the league in passing yards.  But that doesn’t mean that the Fins won’t try to go long as they are 10^th in completions of 20 yards or more.  That means in obvious passing situations, the Patriots need to play a Cover 2 scheme with over the top safety help to keep Camarillo and Ginn, Jr in check.

But the real question is how should the Pats defend the high school Wildcat formation?  They should do the same thing that they always do for run-heavy teams.  They should play a 3-4 alignment.  The D-line and LBs must be held responsible for their backfield reads.  Staying home and seeing the formation for a second time will definitely limit those explosive runs by Brown and Williams. 

Lastly, if the Pats can play a bend-but-don’t-break style, they might be able to hang in the game.  The Fins are 24^th in the league with a 20.9 scoring average and 26^th in the NFL with only 9 TD passes.  Keeping people in front of them, limiting the one-on-one exposure in the defensive backfield and wrapping people up will make it a successful night for the Pats and should help the Pats secure the needed win to keep pace in the tight AFC East.

Next team on the docket is the AFC North leader Pittsburgh Steelers, another recently made grudge match.  Can the Pats take advantage of a QB who is still trying to get back in his groove?  Will they be able to withstand the blitzing onslaught that comes with playing the Black and Gold?  Tune in next Friday to find out.

Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com.

Leave it to Eric Mangini and his co-conspirator, Mike Tannenbaum, to bring some dime-store psychology to a Grand Masters’ Chess Match by acquiring the former New England Patriot/New York Jet/KC Chief CB Ty Law this week.  Although, if you read the press release announcing the signing, you might find that there may be more than his defensive skills are not the only thing that is slipping away from the former All-Pro cornerback.

Here’s what the Law Man said to NFL.com’s Adam Schefter on Monday afternoon:

“This is going to be different playing Thursday night against the Patriots, matching up against my former team and the players I’m used to practicing against,” Law said as he was packing in Boston to drive to New York only to return to Boston again on Wednesday.

“I know they’re going to throw at me, but I welcome the challenge.”

Okay, whaaa?  What was Ty smoking to think that he was just recently practicing against anyone on the Pats squad?  Sure, the last time he played for the Pats was on Halloween - in 2004.  That’s four years ago, folks.  I don’t know about you but things change fast in four years; especially in the ultra-competitive league that was labeled so eloquently by Jerry Glanville as the “Not For Long” league.

Maybe Ty doesn’t want to remember that he left Foxboro, went to NYJ, stayed for one season, went to the Chiefs for two seasons before finding the unemployed CB line.  But it makes me wonder - did he turn to someone to help him forget?  Did he go to a hypnotist?  Or was it a homeopathic remedy?  Is it possible that someone has been dabbling in the Pineapple Express while waiting for the phone to ring?  Did Ricky not lose his number?

by Britt Schramm
britt@patriotsdaily.com

Said we gettin’ up,
Said we gettin’ up,
Tonight is right,
C’mon we gettin’ up
- Q-Tip, “Getting Up”, The Renaissance (2008)

Like Chris and Scott have said this week, last week’s game against the Colts was a very winnable game; especially since the Pats followed the patented Line ‘Em Up recipe for success.  But mental errors on the field (players) and off the field (HC of NEP) cost them the victory.

And yet, I am coming away from the Saturday night battle of now mediocre squads with more positives from the Foxboro team than most.  Now, I’m not normally one of those half-full kind of guys - after all, I’m also a 30+ year fan of the Red Sox.  But if you take a look at the box score, you should notice some real positives, lined up in almost a domino fashion.

The first thing that stands out that the Pats ran the ball very well, which was good since the Colts were basically daring New England to run by playing their safeties in a very deep Cover-2.   By proving that they could run well against Indy’s smaller front seven, the Pats were able to limit the time that MasterCard Manning had to work the Colts Kia-powered offense. 

With that effective running, the Patriots were able to hold on to the ball for nine minutes more than the Colts.  The old cliché (prior to opening up of the passing game with new pass interference rules) told a tale that if you won the TOP battle, you would be in the position to win the game. 

And by controlling the ball, the Pats only had to punt once.  Read that again.  The last time the Patriots could say that they used their punter so infrequently was back in the RunningItUpGate overhyped drama from last year.  By contrast, the Colts had to punt three times.

by Britt Schramm
britt@patriotsdaily.com

“Statistics are no substitute for judgment” - Henry Clay, American Statesman

“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts-for support rather than for illumination.” - Andrew Lang, Scottish Poet and Collector of Folk/Fairy Tales

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” - Mark Twain, American author (attributing original quote to Benjamin Disraeli)

If I can paraphrase badly the sentiment of the three wise men quoted above, statistics can be very misleading in the wrong hands.  To that end, here’s an interesting comparison provided by NFL.com concerning the former and current starting QB for your AFC East Co-Leaders from Foxboro after seven games under their respective belts.

Hey, those numbers look pretty friggin comparable, I’d say.  As you can see, Cassel is completing at a better percentage and for more passing yards than his predecessor; probably a result of having Moss and Welker (not a slight against the ‘01 edition of Patten and Brown).  Other numbers show that Matt probably still holds onto the ball way too long based not only on the fact that the number of sacks is twice as many as Brady’s but a sometime by-product of a collapsing pocket is increased rushing attempts, which is over twice of what Brady has.

To justify all of the work to get these individual stats, I think that it is necessary to delve a little deeper into these numbers to find out how statistically alike these two So Cal QBs are.