Two weeks ago, the national pundits (isn’t it interesting that the word pun is included in these so-called knowledgeable authorities’ titles) were ready to crown the Jets as the heir apparent to the AFC Champs (even ahead of the one-loss Titans).  Then, the titanic defensive powerhouse Denver Broncos and the offensive juggernaut San Francisco 49ers came along and destroyed that misconception.  Broadway Brett threw less than 400 yds total with no TDs and two picks.  It’s was nice to see that the Hayseed Dixie finally made his appearance in Gotham.  The Jets are so mired in bad vibes that WR Laveranues Coles is coming off like TO’s little bro.

Two weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins lost to the Pats and were just happy to not be the Detroit Lions.  Plus, they’re responsible for spurring on the latest wrinkle in the NFL a.k.a. the Wildcat offense.   Now, after beating downtrodden teams like St. Louis and Buffalo, the Fish received their Christmas present early – otherwise known as hope.  And hope is a dangerous thing in inexperienced hands like Miami.

And of course, I’m sure that everyone is well aware of the highs (comeback against the hapless Seahawks, Cassel’s bounce back from Pittsburgh) and lows (Pittsburgh game, more injured defensive starters, death of Cassel’s father) in the past two weeks for the New England Patriots.  Their 1-1 record seemed to reflect these up and down emotions.

What is left is a three game race to the end of the season for the AFC East title and quite possibly the only available playoff spot for these three teams. In a NFL season full of questions both on and off the field, the one that matters most to Patriots fans is: 

How the hell are they gonna make the playoffs?

As you’ve read from Scott’s solid analysis in previous weeks here at Patriots Daily, New England no longer controls their own fate and will need more than a little help from its AFC opponents to even find themselves in the conversation of an AFC East title as well as the one word Jim Mora, Sr. probably still hears in his sleep (or at least on those Coors Light commercials). Since the Jets and Miami play each other at the end of the season, there is no way for all three teams to win out the remaining three games.

So, to get everyone a proper dose of reality, here is a proper breakdown of just the AFC East battle for the regular season championship.

Scenario One:

The Pats win out and finish 11-5

The Jets win out and finish 11-5

The Dolphins go 2-1 (losing to the Jets) and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is the NY Jets by virtue of their better AFC East record (Jets: 5-1; Pats: 4-2)

Scenario Two:

The Pats win out and finish 11-5

The Dolphins win out and finish 11-5

The Jets go 2-1 and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is Miami due to their better record within the AFC (Miami: 8-4; New England 7-5)

Scenario Three:

The Pats go 2-1 and finish 10-6

The Dolphins go 2-1 (losing to the Jets) and finish 10-6

The Jets win both games at home but lose to Seattle thus also going 2-1 and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is the New York Jets based on their better AFC East record of 5-1

Scenario Four:

The Pats go 2-1 (beating Oakland and Buffalo but losing to Arizona) thus finishing 10-6

The Dolphins go 2-1 (losing to the Jets) and finish 10-6

The Jets beat Miami and Seattle but lose to Buffalo thus also going 2-1 and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is the New England Patriots due to their better common opponents record (New England 8-3; New York 7-4) Miami would be eliminated by their 3-3 AFC East record

Scenario Five:

The Pats go 2-1 (beating Oakland and Arizona but losing to Buffalo) thus finishing 10-6

The Dolphins go 2-1 (losing to the Jets) and finish 10-6

The Jets beat Miami and Seattle but lose to Buffalo thus also going 2-1 and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is the New York Jets based their better AFC East record of 4-2 (both Miami and New England would be 3-3)

Scenario Six:

The Pats win out and finish 11-5

The Dolphins go 2-1 and finish 10-6

The Jets go 2-1 and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is the New England Patriots based on their overall regular season record

Scenario Seven:

The Pats got 2-1 and finish 10-6

The Dolphins go 2-1 and finish 10-6

The Jets win out and finish 11-5

The AFC East Champion is the New York Jets based on their overall regular season record

Scenario Eight:

The Pats got 2-1 and finish 10-6

The Dolphins win out and finish 11-5

The Jets go 2-1 and finish 10-6

The AFC East Champion is the Miami Dolphins based on their overall regular season record

Out of seven possible AFC East Championship scenarios, New England has two ways to win it., which makes this week basically the one that will determine if New England has a realistic chance or not. 

If New England loses either one of the AFC games (Oakland or Buffalo), they will be all but eliminated from winning the AFC East title (the Pats are one game behind both Miami and New York in conference play) and quite possibly out of any playoff consideration.  Also, with a Jet victory over the Bills this week, one of the two winnable AFC East title scenarios for the Pats will go by the wayside.

New England Patriots fans, it is time to embrace your inner Chris Berman and become a fan of the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Because without those Bills playing like they did at the beginning of the year, you’ll probably won’t have the TV on CBS on Sundays afternoons after the bell rings in 2009.

 Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com.

Due to last week’s debacle against the 2008 version of the Steel Curtain, the New England Patriots will probably have to win out and get a few presents from Ole Kris Kringle in order to make the playoffs.  That goal is still not out of the realm of possibility; although it would be nice for the Patriots to control their own destiny. 

If you think of it, those close losses against the Colts and the Jets are like the tortured Ghosts of a Playoff Berth Lost while the remaining three games (at Oakland, versus Arizona, and at Buffalo) are like the ethereal Ghosts of Possible 11-5 season.  That leaves this game against Seattle as the very real Ghost of the Trap Game. 

For those who may not know, a trap game is one where an obviously superior team overlooks a really bad team.  Although the Pats looked frustratingly flawed and confused against Pittsburgh, there’s not much of an argument that the Pats should beat the Seattle Seahawks.

This Seahawk franchise is almost like a microcosm of the US economy.  They were living high on the hog with a 5-year streak of playoff appearances (2003-07), a four year streak of NFC West division championships (2004-07) with a Super Bowl appearance in 2005.  But now, they have fallen on hard times with a 2-10 record and now are led by a Lame Duck (HC Mike Holmgren) and HC Select (Jim Mora, Jr.).  On Sunday, it is up to the Patriots coaches and players to avoid acting like a stimulus package to the recessional-looking ‘Hawks.

A perusal of the stats reflects a Seahawk team that can’t do much on offense and can’t stop anyone on defense.  Seattle ranks near the bottom on most offensive categories like Scoring per Game (25^th – 18.0), Total yards per game (30^th – 257.3), Passing Yards per Game (31^st – 148.8), Passing Plays over 20 yards (31^st – 20) and QB Passer Rating (29^th – 65.0).  In all honesty, there have been on-going injuries to the WR corps (Deion Branch especially) and starting QB Matt Hasselbeck, but as the old cliché goes, “Injuries are part of the game.”

Not surprisingly, the Seahawks have turned to the running game, which they have done relatively well (21^st – 108.5 yds per game) in comparison.  One rather surprising stat is that the “Hawks are tied (with Oakland, no less) for 8^th in the league with running plays over 20 yards (11).  The Seahawks employ a three-pronged running attack with Dallas transplant Julius Jones, change of pace back Maurice Morris and former Michigan State Spartan/well-traveled NFL veteran/Goal-line runner T.J. Duckett.  Those three have combined for a decent 10-game stretch for a regular RB (259 attempts, 1,099 yards and 8 TDs) but the running game is usually more effective when there is a definite lead back and Jones is not that back anymore.

Defensively, Seattle is actually worse.  They are giving up 25.9 points a game (26^th in the NFL), allowing 386.7 yards per game (30^th) and finish dead last in both passing yards allowed per game (265.2) and passing plays of 20+ yards allowed (44).  Lastly, only the woeful Detroit Lions are worse than the Seahawks in QB Passer Rating (99.3).  Only the common cold is as successful as the Seahawks opposing QBs.

The one phase that Seattle excels is at Special Teams.  They are 2^nd in the NFL with 1,457 KO return yards and are 3^rd in the league with a 25.1 average (with the 6^th most KO returns).  They are tied for 4^th with 37 KO returns of over 20 yards and tops in the NFL with 7 KO returns of over 40 yards.  All of these numbers come with only one fumble. 

Kick returns isn’t the only part of Special Teams that Seattle performs well. The Seahawks are 9^th in the league with 307 punt return yards for a 10.6 average (12^th in the NFL). 

On the coverage side, the Seahawks are 8^th in the league with a 65.6 kick-off average and is third in the NFL with 31.5% of their kick-off ending up with touchbacks.

So, how do the Pats avoid the teeth of the Trap Game and leave the city of Starbucks with a win?  Easy peasey. 

On offense, the Pats need to keep their playbook wide-open and continue to attack the Seahawks with the pass intermingled with running both Morris and Faulk with the Law Firm getting some at the goal line.  On defense, the Pats need to take away the run and force the Seattle QB to find his WRs.  And they should definitely practice on generating a decent pass rush; maybe getting newly signed LB Roosevelt Colvin back in the mix in obvious passing downs.

But the real key to a Pats win is to possibly generate some game-changing plays in the Special Teams.  That could be as simple as securing the ball on a kick-off, which the Pats haven’t well this year (tied for 2^nd in the NFL with 3 fumbled Kick-offs).  If anything has been shown by this season, the Pats can find ways to lose games.  I would rather not see the Seahawks win on a return for a touchdown due to a fumbled kick-off.

Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com.

Here’s a “Happy Black Friday” to all of the Patriots Daily readers.  It will also be a “Black Sunday” as the Blade will be host to the Steelers when they come out of the tunnel for the 4:15 PM EST kickoff.  Before we get into how the Pats will try to win the game, let’s start this off with some of the things everyone should know about the visitors.

Pittsburgh has the NFL’s Number 1 overall defense.  They are also #1 in the following defensive categories – Points Allowed (14.5), Total Yards per Game Allowed (235.4), Passing Yards per Game Allowed (168.8), and Rushing Yards per Game Allowed (66.5).  They are 3^rd in the NFL in Sacks Recorded (37), 3^rd in Rushing TDs allowed (4), 5^th in Passing TDs allowed (10) and tied for 7^th in Passes Defensed (71).  For a team is tied for 12^th in scoring offense, this type of defense is not only daunting but down right scary. 

Outside of the normal offensive mantra (control the ball, get manageable third downs and no turnovers), how do you score against this team?  Would you believe the old cliché – “A best offense is a good defense”?  In this game, that’s just what the Pats need to do to win.

The weakest link in the Steelers’ offensive game is actually the man behind center, otherwise known as Madden’s other QB man-love crush.  The singular-named Ben (since Old Man John can’t correctly pronounce his last name more than twice a game) has thrown eight interceptions, lost 2 fumbles, sacked 15 times and had an average QB Rating of 49.7.  Daunte Culpepper laughs at those stats, which is good because he needs a reason to smile right now.

It doesn’t help Crash the QB that the guys who are supposed to be his backfield are better at getting tackled than running.  They’re 25th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (a shade over 100 yds), 24^th in yards per rush (3.6) and are tied for 27^th in rushes longer than 20 yards (4).  I don’t expect these stats to dramatically rise against the Pats; even if Wee Willie Parker makes it back from a hobbled knee.

To have a chance to win against the Steelers, the Pats have to be aggressive with their defense.  If there is anything left in Capers tank, he needs to help Pees come up with some crazy blitzing schemes; both run and pass.  The Pats need to take away any kind of running game to force the issue with Roethlisberger and his accuracy issues. 

By turning the Steelers into a passing team, they can focus on getting to Big Ben often.  It’s proven that if Roethlisberger is pressured and forced out of the pocket, he’s too slow to run down the field and he’ll try to force a pass that he shouldn’t. 

However, in order to get that pressure, the Pats can’t play a Cover 2 scheme.  That means that Meriweather and Sanders need to man up and cover guys like third WR Nate Washington and sometimes, TE Heath Miller.  If they can keep those guys in check and force Lumbering Ben to go off book, it will play into the favor of New England.

Even if the Pats can’t get a couple of picks from this generation’s Drew Bledsoe, they can still win the field position battle if they can get the Pittsburgh offense to go three and out.  The Steelers rank 29^th in the NFL with a 39.6 punting average and a long of 61 yds (tied for 22^nd in the league).

If the Pats do find themselves on a short field, they should go strong to the left behind Mankins and Light since starting RDE Keisel and RILB Foote are more than banged up.  Yes, Harrison is still over there but that’s a better option than seeing LBs Woodley and Farrior locking down the right side.

Lastly, it would be interesting to see the Pats go four-wide, no-huddle for a good portion of the first half.  Not only would it take out some of Pittsburgh’s tough LBs but it can test the back-up DBs against the resurgent Pats WRs.  It’s doubtful that there will be the same results as against Miami but seeing the way Cassel is now in sync with the WRs, the chances that the Pats can nickel-and-dime (pun intended) their way up the field.

Even the most casual observer knows that this game will not be an easy one but if the Pats can shake up the QB and play the majority of the game on the Steelers side of the field, the Pats could get their playoff hopes on more stable footing.

Next week, the Pats head out west to take on the other team from the Extra Large Super Bowl, the now 2-10 Seahawks.  Can the Pats take care of business against the NFC West cellar dwellers?  Will Deion Branch try to sneak back on the Pats plane back home?  Come back in seven to get your first look on the Pats’ next game plan.

Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com

Man, I’m beginning to wonder if Coach Belichick and his coaching staff are forgetting to read my column.  I mean, he didn’t get my plans to expose the weakness of the Jets’ DBs by using 3WR/1TE or 4WR sets until near the end of the second quarter.  I guess someone on his staff must’ve remembered to look here in between the 2-minute warning.  Hopefully, with no more Thursday night games, it won’t happen again.

With that in mind, how should the Pats win against the streaking Dolphins, winners of four straight games, Mr. All-Knowing Football Man?  If you look at the stats, the trends are there for the reading.

On offense, the Pats need to continue to work on the 3WR/1TE sets from last week to keep the Dolphins nickel and dime DBs on the field.  The Fins are 23^rd in the NFL for passing yards per game.  The Pats also should go deep against the Dolphins as the Fish are 29^th in the league in allowing passing plays of 20 yards or more.  But since the Fins are in the top 10 in sacks, Cassel needs to get check down or rid of the ball if the deep ball is not there.  I do have another plea to have Cassel use the shovel pass up the middle and the WR bubble pass on the sides to tire the D-line and LBs.

With Sammy Morris coming back this week, he might be able to run better on the left side.  While I’m not a fan of running at the new Mouth of the South (Porter) and Holliday but prior to Game 3 of the 2008 season getting out of hand early, Morris did have some success on that side of the line and with a relatively healthy line, running the ball is a necessary component to a Pats victory.

On the defensive side of the ball, there will be visions of last week’s Favre check-down mode on the field by the Fish.  With Pennington behind center, the Fish are 9^th in the league in passing yards.  But that doesn’t mean that the Fins won’t try to go long as they are 10^th in completions of 20 yards or more.  That means in obvious passing situations, the Patriots need to play a Cover 2 scheme with over the top safety help to keep Camarillo and Ginn, Jr in check.

But the real question is how should the Pats defend the high school Wildcat formation?  They should do the same thing that they always do for run-heavy teams.  They should play a 3-4 alignment.  The D-line and LBs must be held responsible for their backfield reads.  Staying home and seeing the formation for a second time will definitely limit those explosive runs by Brown and Williams. 

Lastly, if the Pats can play a bend-but-don’t-break style, they might be able to hang in the game.  The Fins are 24^th in the league with a 20.9 scoring average and 26^th in the NFL with only 9 TD passes.  Keeping people in front of them, limiting the one-on-one exposure in the defensive backfield and wrapping people up will make it a successful night for the Pats and should help the Pats secure the needed win to keep pace in the tight AFC East.

Next team on the docket is the AFC North leader Pittsburgh Steelers, another recently made grudge match.  Can the Pats take advantage of a QB who is still trying to get back in his groove?  Will they be able to withstand the blitzing onslaught that comes with playing the Black and Gold?  Tune in next Friday to find out.

Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com.

Here’s what the Law Man said to NFL.com’s Adam Schefter on Monday afternoon:

“This is going to be different playing Thursday night against the Patriots, matching up against my former team and the players I’m used to practicing against,” Law said as he was packing in Boston to drive to New York only to return to Boston again on Wednesday.

“I know they’re going to throw at me, but I welcome the challenge.”

Okay, whaaa?  What was Ty smoking to think that he was just recently practicing against anyone on the Pats squad?  Sure, the last time he played for the Pats was on Halloween – in 2004.  That’s four years ago, folks.  I don’t know about you but things change fast in four years; especially in the ultra-competitive league that was labeled so eloquently by Jerry Glanville as the “Not For Long” league.

Maybe Ty doesn’t want to remember that he left Foxboro, went to NYJ, stayed for one season, went to the Chiefs for two seasons before finding the unemployed CB line.  But it makes me wonder – did he turn to someone to help him forget?  Did he go to a hypnotist?  Or was it a homeopathic remedy?  Is it possible that someone has been dabbling in the Pineapple Express while waiting for the phone to ring?  Did Ricky not lose his number?

However, before you start sending your complaints towards Coach Belichick and Scott Pioli, I have a feeling that the Pats didn’t want to stop the “inevitable” family reunion between Law and second-year CB Darrelle Revis.  Again from the Schefter piece:

“That’s my little boy,” said the 34-year-old Law. “I’ve watched him grow up and to be able to help him now, it’ll be a good deal. He’s wearing No. 24, and he’s representing me. He’s a stud, and it’s going to be more of a pleasure to watch him grow.”… “The Jets are going to move me around, make me a corner-slash-safety, a corner hybrid,” Law said. “A lot of guys move back inside and play. Eric will do some creative things with me and I’ll get to mentor Darrelle.”

Aww, doesn’t that give you a nice warm and fuzzy.  While Law may be seeing things through a rose-colored visor, I do question his use of the term “corner hybrid”.  I know that it is in vogue during these geo-political times to use “hybrid” in everything, but I think that putting that term to describe basically a nickel/dime CB is insulting to all involved.  (On the other hand, if he used the new auto buzzword “crossover”, he would’ve sounded like he was on the cutting edge of a new defensive role.)

Alright, enough of the Ty Law grizzle.  It’s now time to look at the steak…

This Week – New York Jets (6-3; Against AFC East 2-1; Against the Pats 0-1)

Shirley, You Jets Jest

Here’s the uncensored truth – the New York Jets are a good football team.  On defense, they are 5^th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, 10^th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game, 10^th in the NFL in interceptions, and 2^nd in the league with 31 sacks.  On offense, the Jets are 3^rd in the NFL with an average of 28.3 points per game, 9^th in the NFL in rushing yards, 2^nd in the NFL in yards per attempt and 2^nd in pass completion percentage.  Any time that a team can make it into a Top 10 of those categories, it is a good thing.

So, while others are shying away from providing a breakdown of how the Pats should attack the Jets, never fear – that’s what Line ‘Em Up was created to do.  Believe me, it’s not an easy task but if Coach Belichick can do the following things on both sides of the ball, you can mark that W on your NFL-licensed team schedule.

First, on offense, make Mangini use Ty Law by bringing in 4WRs or 3 WRs and 2 TEs.  Spread out the formation and find the open man in a quick three-step to five-step drop.  Again, Cassel can’t wait all day and if there’s nothing there, he needs to throw it away.  But based on the Jets’ 20^th-ranked pass defense, there should be holes for Welker, Moss, Gaffney and even Thomas/Watson to work.

Also, in this formation, utilize the old stand-by that worked in the early part of Brady’s career – the shovel pass.  Make the hard charging Jets think twice about racing to get to the QB.  Also, throw in an occasional screen pass – even if it loses yards it will keep the d-line honest.

Lastly, it may be time to run the ball to the right for the majority of the carries.  Obviously, gains may not be substantial but the RILB is a position which the Jets are hurting and DE Shaun Ellis is averaging a smidge under 3 tackles per game while the starting ROLB (Bryan Thomas) is barely averaging 4 tackles per game.  Yards can be had if Neal, Hochstein, Yates and Kaczur can get off their blocks and head downfield without grabbing a handful of jersey under the watchful eye of the zebras.

Let’s turn our attention to the Pats defense – a squad that is becoming the pride of the Foxboro fans.  How can they slow down Thomas Jones and the one-time QB from Green Bay?  Again, easier said then done.

First, take away Jones, Leon Washington and any other RB.  In two of the three losses by the Jets (the Oakland game is a true anomaly), their running game was held under 22 rushing attempts and under 110 yards total.  Taking away any ground game puts the ball squarely in the hands of Number 4.

Now, once the ball is in Favre’s hands, the Pats have to pressure him often.  In those same three losses, the Jets’ QB was sacked an average of 3+ times.  The Pats aren’t exactly the second coming of Blitzburgh, but the defense wants Favre to get Happy Feet.  Because A Happy Foot Favre means an overthrowing Favre which morphs into Interception Favre, something else in which he is the All-Time NFL Leader.

Last of all, the Pats need to continue to stop the big passing play.  Favre can pull a rose out of a fertilizer bed every once in a while and Cotchery (and Coles to a lesser degree) can burn the Pats DBs if attention to detail wanes when trying to rattle Favre.  I would still employ a Cover Two scheme for the majority of the first half snaps.  If Favre gets frustrated enough by checking down, he will be more likely to chuck it and pray that his WRs can get under the ball.  Once he does that, you can shut the door on an AFC East Championship for the New York Jets.

Next week is a early Sunday game against the Flying Fish of Miami.  Will New England suffer their usual Pro Player hangover or will they all but put a bow on the AFC East Regular Season Championship with a win?  Come back in eight days and find out.

Britt Schramm’s ‘Line Em Up’ appears weekly on Patriots Daily. He can be reached at britt@patriotsdaily.com.

Said we gettin’ up,
Said we gettin’ up,
Tonight is right,
C’mon we gettin’ up
- Q-Tip, “Getting Up”, The Renaissance (2008)

Like Chris and Scott have said this week, last week’s game against the Colts was a very winnable game; especially since the Pats followed the patented Line ‘Em Up recipe for success.  But mental errors on the field (players) and off the field (HC of NEP) cost them the victory.

And yet, I am coming away from the Saturday night battle of now mediocre squads with more positives from the Foxboro team than most.  Now, I’m not normally one of those half-full kind of guys – after all, I’m also a 30+ year fan of the Red Sox.  But if you take a look at the box score, you should notice some real positives, lined up in almost a domino fashion.

The first thing that stands out that the Pats ran the ball very well, which was good since the Colts were basically daring New England to run by playing their safeties in a very deep Cover-2.   By proving that they could run well against Indy’s smaller front seven, the Pats were able to limit the time that MasterCard Manning had to work the Colts Kia-powered offense. 

With that effective running, the Patriots were able to hold on to the ball for nine minutes more than the Colts.  The old cliché (prior to opening up of the passing game with new pass interference rules) told a tale that if you won the TOP battle, you would be in the position to win the game. 

And by controlling the ball, the Pats only had to punt once.  Read that again.  The last time the Patriots could say that they used their punter so infrequently was back in the RunningItUpGate overhyped drama from last year.  By contrast, the Colts had to punt three times.

But it wasn’t all wine and roses statistically for New England.  They were virtually ineffective stopping Peyton “Will Open Your New Mall” Manning proving that his lack of production may be due to rust.  Although I would like to think the lack of pocket pressure from the front four and lack of experience in the Pats’ defensive backfield had more to do with Manning finding the fountain of 2006 than anything he did.

Another troubling situation was the lack of red zone effectiveness.  Getting one TD out of four trips inside the 20 is very poor.  Imagine if one of those FGs was instead a TD (I don’t say when Gaffney was imitating Dwight Stone the WR or the Olympic high jumper), I would be talking about winning by one.  Victory was that close, my friend.

Lastly, the thing that really killed the Pats was the inability to stop the Colts on third down.  Indy went 6 for 10 in that category which doesn’t help get your D some rest and doesn’t allow your offense from controlling the ball.  Again, if the defense got one more stop, winning the game would’ve been that much easier.

That’s why I cited the new song by Q-Tip at the beginning (other than recognizing his return to the spotlight for the first time since ‘99).  We, as a fanbase, have to keep getting up.  Being tied with eight games left to go (half at home), it is entirely possible to hit 10+ wins this season which is very acceptable when all things are considered.

But the first step in the rest of the season is…

This Week – Buffalo Bills (5-3; Against AFC East 1-2)

Buffalo Stance

Buffalo is swooning after going 4-0 to start the season as they have won just once in the last four games.  The offense is averaging less than 19 points a game.  Trent Edwards has been banged up.  Marshawn Lynch still seems affected by his involvement with a hit-and-run in July and his play has suffered because of it. He’s only gained 466 yards this year including a 16 yd performance last week.  The only person who seems to be consistent is Lee Evans, who already has 678 yards on only 35 catches for a 19.4 average.

With the recent struggles on offense, it is the defense that is keeps them in most of these games (outside of the Cardinals blowout).  The average margin of victory for the Bills’ opponents in the last two games is nine points, which isn’t too bad (although is it a smidge less than half of what Buffalo is scoring right now).  All of their game averages are hovering right around the top third of the league.  So, it is not a fluke that the Bills are tied with the Pats, but they are meeting at a time when the Pats are going up while they are headed down.

Well, what do the Pats have to do to get the much needed win?  On defense, I would like to take a page out of the Colts defensive gameplan from last week while on offense, I would like to offer a broken record.

To beat the team, I would like to see the Patriots take out their best player right away – Lee Evans – by having safety James Sanders shadow Evans in double coverage on the majority of the snaps.  None of the other WRs or TEs has true breakaway speed strong enough to have Gonzalez-kind of game as long as the other DBs can keep everyone out in front of them.

Another plan on defense is to keep Lynch inside the tackles.  He’s not hitting the holes with the same authority as he has in the past and by keeping him cooped up, his long runs will be significantly fewer.

Lastly, the defense needs to change up their defensive looks.  Edwards is a very capable QB and is checking down on most of his reads.  If the Pats can goad him into making a bad decision, they have the players to make him pay.

On offense, the Pats still have to do what is making them successful – running the ball, controlling the time of possession and throwing hot read, three-step passes early in the game.  Running will not be as easy as it was against the smaller Colts but the Bills are giving up almost 99 yards on the ground per game which dovetails nicely with the Pats’ style of attack.  If they can get to or past that magic 100 yard milestone, they will be in control of the game.

The quick three-step drop pass from the QB will not only help Cassel get into the game flow early but might help the WRs put some distance between them and the Bills’ DBs if some double moves are utilized.  The Pats also should stay away from the tricker-ation that got them into trouble last week.  New England does not have the luxury of teams keying on the QB as the singular focus of the offense and need to be as straight ahead as possible.  If they can establish those points, the Bills will have problems staying in the game.

Next week is a Thursday night clash with the New York Bretts.  Will they still be tied for the AFC East lead?  And what will Pats do in order to sweep the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets?  Come back on a special time, Thursday morning, to find all that you need to know.

“Statistics are no substitute for judgment” – Henry Clay, American Statesman

“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts-for support rather than for illumination.” – Andrew Lang, Scottish Poet and Collector of Folk/Fairy Tales

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain, American author (attributing original quote to Benjamin Disraeli)

If I can paraphrase badly the sentiment of the three wise men quoted above, statistics can be very misleading in the wrong hands.  To that end, here’s an interesting comparison provided by NFL.com concerning the former and current starting QB for your AFC East Co-Leaders from Foxboro after seven games under their respective belts.

Hey, those numbers look pretty friggin comparable, I’d say.  As you can see, Cassel is completing at a better percentage and for more passing yards than his predecessor; probably a result of having Moss and Welker (not a slight against the ’01 edition of Patten and Brown).  Other numbers show that Matt probably still holds onto the ball way too long based not only on the fact that the number of sacks is twice as many as Brady’s but a sometime by-product of a collapsing pocket is increased rushing attempts, which is over twice of what Brady has.

To justify all of the work to get these individual stats, I think that it is necessary to delve a little deeper into these numbers to find out how statistically alike these two So Cal QBs are.

In comparable opponents (even if that is possible), Cassel was 2-2 (beating the Jets and Denver but losing to Miami and San Diego) while Brady was not real terrific going 1-3 with beating the Bolts by three points (although there should be an asterisk on the Jets game since he entered so late). 

Brady saved his worse games for those losses putting up Passer Ratings of 62.9, 58.7, and 57.1 in each loss.  Helping that cause was four pics and six sacks against only two TDs.  Again, the seven years (and the first SB win) between this season and that one helps lessen the impact of those numbers.

Cassel also had sub-70 QB Ratings in his two losses with two INTs, eight sacks and only 1 TD.  However, Cassel has something that Brady never had – a HOF player on the sidelines that everyone (especially the media) will naturally compare his game performance up against.  And don’t forget about the ever-present fan expectation of winning every game.  Think about that type of big-game pressure when you’re turning in your monthly TPS reports to Lumbergh.

Obviously, there are more tough games to be played in this season; especially in the next five weeks as the combined record of those opponents is .571.  The major advantage to the Pats in these next five is that only one more game outside of this week’s game will be on the road.  Really, if I told you back in August that the Pats would actually be 5-2 with a QB not named Brady, I’m not sure that I would be able to type anything from my straight jacket.

So, when someone mentions that Cassel is doing his best Brady imitation, you’ll know that it may sound highly blasphemous but in the proper context, it is not so profane.

This Week – Indianapolis Colts (3-4; Against AFC East 0-0)

Trick, No Treat for Colts Fans

What are the odds that the sole undefeated team would be out of the AFC South Division and that team would not be the one led by Archie’s middle child?  And who would have bet that if not for a couple of choking dogs, those same Colts would only have one win this far into the season? 

Peyton has dropped significantly since last season.  In fact, at his current rate, this will be his worse season since his rookie season.  His QB rating is sub 80, he has only thrown for one more TD than INT and his passing yards (padded by being behind for much of the games this season) will be his second lowest output.

And the running game is just woeful.  The Colts are ranked LAST in the run with 73.4 yards per game.  Of course, they haven’t had a full-strength Joseph Addai but I can think of at least one other team that has lost their first two RBs and is still running the ball decently.  It’s true that the Colts view the running game as a way to distract opponents from their aerial assault but letting teams like the Lions and Arizona beat you on the ground is just pathetic.

On the defensive side of the ball, Dungy’s Cover 2 scheme is holding up nicely keeping teams at 178 yards per game which ranks 2^nd in the NFL without the use of mighty mite safety Bob Sanders for most of the season.  Although, really, he’s used more to stop the run, which Indy is still having major issues in preventing.  So far, Indy is 26^th in the league against the run (144.1 yards per game) which has led to a 33:19 time of possession for Indy’s opponents which is 28^th in the NFL.  Truly, I think that the wall that the Colts ran into this year has dropped on-top of them, both figuratively and literally.

So, what do the Pats need to do to beat one of their toughest rivals? 

If you’re looking for a comparable game, peruse the Colts game against Jacksonville.  The Jags held the ball for over 41 minutes, had two backs go for over 100 yards rushing while limiting the Colts ground game to only 19 rushing attempts and forcing Manning into throwing 2 pics.  Here’s what my game plan would be:

On Offense, treat this game similar to the Denver game – use the run on the left and middle part of the field to setup short passes.  Make the return of Bob Sanders a rough one.  If Jordan is available, use the three-headed running attack and pound the ball in the Colts’ pie hole.  Work the short pass on the outside and find the seams in the Cover 2 by using the slot receiver.  Hog the ball and use the clock.  Force the Colts to gamble on D and make them pay with the play action.

On Defense, do the unthinkable.  Make Manning beat you by taking away the running game.  Addai may be coming back but he will be spelled by Dominic Rhodes who has been averaging about 72 yards on 21 carries.  By forcing the Colts to be a pass-first team, it places a ton of pressure on the struggling QB which will make him force some bad throws; hopefully, ones that will be picked off.

Next week brings the Buffalo Bills to the Razor.  The Bills are enjoying an upswing the likes of they haven’t experienced since Guns N’ Roses was an actual real band instead of a solo act.  Be here next week to see how the Pats should prepare for this AFC East clash.

It was certainly bad news to lose Rodney Harrison late in the game last week.  His play was a key component of two New England Super Bowl teams after he came over from the Bolts and inherited the Pats’ defensive backfield when Brady’s pal Lawyer was shown the door back in ’03.  But with this year going the way it is, maybe Harrison’s injury will turn out being the best thing that could have happened to the Patriots defense.

Now, before you start hitting the comment button to begin questioning my heritage and that of my family, please step away from the keyboard and hear (or read) me out.

This isn’t the same rip job that I gave the now oft-injured LMo last week.  As I stated above, Harrison was vital to the success of the Patriots.  But ever since his season-ending injury three games into the 2005 season, he hasn’t been the same player and the stats are once again on my side.

In 2003 and 2004, Harrison averaged 16 games played, 132 total tackles (93 solo), 3 sacks, 7 passes defensed, 2.5 INTs and 2 forced fumbles.  These stats alone prove that the washed up label Harrison had coming from San Diego was erroneous to say the least.  Unfortunately, those numbers wouldn’t last after tearing his ACL, MCL and PCL knee ligaments at the Ketchup Stand. 

In 2006 and 2007, Harrison averaged 11 games played, 58 tackles (44 solo), 1.5 sacks, 4.5 passes defensed, 1 pick and 1 forced fumble.  Granted, the general rule of thumb when concerning knee reconstruction is that the recovery time takes at least one year after the surgery before a player has adjusted back to real game speed.  But even after accounting for that, Harrison was on a slippery slope going down.

And I know that I’m not the only one telling secrets out of class.  Moans of “Rodney’s lost more than a step – I thought that Belichick was more about ability rather than loyalty” and “With Harrison being used as a friggin’ extra LB, we’re getting smoked downfield like an audience at the Cheech and Chong Reunion Tour” were starting after the whole SoCal debacle two weeks ago. The time has come for an on-field, regular season evaluation of the SS position in particular and the defensive backfield as a whole.

Again, let me emphasize that I would’ve rather have Harrison end his career by playing out the rest of this season than suffer an injury in an already clinched victory.  But someday, the Pats will have to figure out who’s gonna stay and who will be on their way out the door with respects to their starting defensive backfield.  With Rodney still in the mix, this type of evaluation may never happen.  The way this season has been going, the time might as well be now.

Speaking of now, here’s this week’s matchup.

This Week – St. Louis Rams (2-4; Against AFC East 0-1)

Slow Roasting the Red Hot Rams

After last week’s blueprint (should it be called a blueprint when the Broncos laid down so quickly – how ‘bout we call it a connect-the-dots sheet and leave it at that), what does Line ‘Em Up have for this week’s opponents?  It might be as simple as practicing two things that are prevalent in all programs – the gauntlet drill and tip drill.

The gauntlet drill is the type of practice where the running back runs through the middle of two rows of defensive players as they take whacks at the football in the RB’s hands.  Thus the name of the drill is known as The Gauntlet.  The Tip Drill is just like it sounds.  A position coach throws a hard spiral toward a couple of DBs and the ball has to be tipped prior to catching it.

It seems as simple as that, right?  Well, if you take a look at the October 12^th game, the Rams should’ve been blown out by the on-fire Redskins.  Washington had 22 1^st downs compared to only 8 by St. Louis.  The Rams had only 200 yards of total net offense and made only 28% of their third downs plays.  It was a statistical smackdown.

So, what was the great equalizer?  If you said turnovers, you’ve been paying attention, my friend.  The Redskins lost three of their four fumbles with one returned for six while St. Louis lost just one of their own.  That old worn-out saying about taking care of the ball proves that sometimes clichés have more than a ring of truth to them.

As for the Dallas meltdown; again, Dallas won the statistical battle.    The Cowboys had more total yards, more passing yards and only gave up three sacks.  But this time, St. Louis brought their offense with Stephen Jackson running wild for 160 yds in 25 carries and 3 TDs and Marc Bulger throwing a very competent 13 for 18 for 163 yds and 1 TD against the injury-riddled Dallas D. 

And yet, Dallas lost the game by treating the ball like a red-headed stepchild.  Old Man Johnson looked every bit the incarnation of the last days of “Drew does Dallas Wrong” – immobile (5 sacks) and mistake-prone (50% completion percentage, 3 INTs).  It was so bad for the ‘Boys that their rock on offense, Marion Barber, even lost a fumble.  With that win, the Rams were back in the hunt in the weak NFC West while the chaos in Big D that followed the loss was something that Jerry Jones brought upon himself by using the Daniel Snyder version of the Yankee MLB model of building a World Champion.

So, to recap this week’s gameplan, the Patriots need to stay with what got them the big W last week (running the ball to the left and left center in order to set-up the short bubble passes and crossing routes; defensive pressure and solid downfield coverage) and keep the ball to themselves.  After all, The Razor is their playground and they should feel that the ball is rightfully theirs to do what they wish.

Next week is the Saturday Night clash between the former kings of the AFC, as the Pats take on the Indy Colts.  Which team will show up – the one who beat back the Ravens or the one who limply lost to the Pack?  And how will the Pats try to keep them the latter and not the former?  Come back in seven for what they (and you) need to know.

Friends, Patriots, lend me your ears, I’ve come to bury Lawrence Maroney, not to praise him.  The games lost to injury that LMo has will live after him.  The few 100-yd rushing games will be interred in his bones.  So let it be with Maroney.

Okay, so maybe (mis)appropriating Shakespeare’s Marc Anthony speech about the death of Julius Caesar is probably not the best way to start off a column that is supposed to uplift the spirits after a maddening Sunday Night loss but I’ve had it with the former U of Minnesota starter.

I realize that #39 was a scratch due to injuries but at this point in his non-career, I can’t imagine that a healthy LMo would be able to take the heat off of the beleaguered and befuddled Cassel.  Let’s consider the stats behind my rant (all stats courtesy of NFL.com).

Out of a total of 30 games, #39 has registered a total of 4 games of 100 yards or more.  However, he has rushed for 50 yards or less 16 times or 53.3% of his games played.  The LMo apologists will say these numbers are eschewed due to the passing juggernaut of ’07 and that may be true for part of these disappointing numbers.  But maybe a reason why the Pats turned into a carbon copy of the ‘01 Rams was because Belichick never thought that Maroney was the man to carry the rock on first down and second down after only one year of regular and post-season play.To further hit home the fact that Maroney may be more of a Trojan horse than a workhorse, and to help everyone gain an even better perspective of what kind of back LMo could possibly be after this season, here’s a comparable third-year back:

RB#1 – 470 Attempts, 1,682 yds, 13 TDs, 16 rec, 120 yds, 1 TD

RB#2 – 388 Attempts, 1,673 yds, 12 TDs, 26 rec, 310 yds, 1 TD

RB#2 is Maroney, averaging 55.8 yards per game.  The first back?  His name is Rashaan Salaam, another former first rounder drafted eleven years prior to LMo.  Salaam ran (or lack there of) himself out of Chi-town in three years, took a year off and was out of the league for good one year later.  The same might happen to Maroney if his numbers and injuries remain the same because right now, there’s no feast or famine with LMo; just blight and starvation if you’re a fan of a RB who can consistently chew up yards.

Okay, enough with the gloom and doom, let’s embrace the glow of the Sox pulling out a big old W at the Fens and get to this week’s opponent:

This Week – Denver Broncos (4-2; Against AFC East 0-0)

The Show-Me State of Patriots Nation

As Scott pointed out in Tuesday’s Just Slingin’ It, the Broncos are awful on the defensive side of the ball; even worse than the Pats in almost all recorded categories.  But will that translate into a much-needed victory for the Patriots?  Let’s look specifically at one game that should be a nice “blueprint for beating” the Broncos (ironical use of the phrase noted).

One of the teams who have beaten the Broncos does bear a slight resemblance to the Pats; at least in their current configuration.  The offense was averaging 16 points a game while the defense was giving up ten points more a game.  They had a backup QB in a starting role. The running game was woeful, to say the least.  The defense was averaging less than 2 turnovers a game and only had two sacks total.  But this team hosted the Denver Broncos and beat them to the tune of 33-19.  That team is Kansas City.

So, how did they do it?  They didn’t win by being a pass-happy, pitch-and-catch offense with a passive, tentative defense.  The Chiefs forced turnovers.  They controlled the ball by running it 33 times for 213 net rushing yards.  And they held on to the ball for over 33 minutes.  Lastly, they only turned over the ball once.  Sounds like a box score from the 01 Pats schedule.

Okay, where did they attack the Broncos?  They ran over 51% of their rushing plays up the middle and another third of them to the left side of the line.  This ability to move the ball against the Broncos bodes well for the Patriots since LT Matt Light is coming back after suffering a knee injury on Wednesday.  Light and Mankins need to re-establish their 2007 regular season form so they can gain make running lanes for Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk against a nicked up Elvis Dumervil and Marcus Thomas.

What about the pass?  Huard only took two passes downfield while racking up the short, precise passes by going 21 of 28 pass attempts while benefiting from the YAC that WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez were generating.  Huard ended up with 160 yards and 1 TD but most importantly, zero interceptions.

The KC defense did play some inspired ball.  They got two turnovers in the first four series of the game.  They also got a missed field goal by Nick Novak.  Unfortunately, the defensive groupings for the Chiefs are not available but they run a 4-3 base D, which may allow the Pats group to get back some of their switch mojo that they left (like our hearts) in San Diego.

By the number, this is a winnable game for the Patriots but it all comes down, like every week, to execution.  The “blueprint” is there.  The numbers say that the Broncos defense is vulnerable.  But what will this game be like in this roller coaster of a season?  Will it be a peak like beating the Brett and the Jets?  Or another valley like losing to Miami and to the Bolts?

Next week is another Sunday home game against the now one-win St. Louis Rams.  Hopefully, next week will be better than this past one.  Until then, remember keep it between the lines.

When times get rough, you find out who your friends are.  For New England Patriots fans, you already knew that the national media is not your friend.  Well, you now have another face to add the ranks of Patriots Haters.  His name, as you probably already know, is Cris Carter.

You normally expect the putrid bile flow from former Broncos-4-Life Tom (“They Hate Their Coach”) Jackson, Mark (Golden Shower) Schlereth and Shannon (Mushmouth) Sharpe.  Their tired, formulaic act is almost laughable at this point in their “journalistic” careers.

But what reason does the former Eagle/Vike WR have to hate the Pats and their fans?  I can’t cite anything specifically acrimonious from Carter but I remember something to the tune about Jackson proclaiming from his pulpit on NFL Countdown that current Bronco QB Jay Cutler will have a better career than Tom Brady and Carter backed him up to a certain degree.

Really now?  Comparing a guy who hasn’t done much in his first two years in the league against a three-time winner of the Super Bowl (resulted in two SB MVP awards) and winner of one NFL MVP award is a believable comparison?  You really want ESPN viewers to think that you are that naive?

And it gets better.  Word must have gotten back to Carter that some New England fans took offense to his tepid endorsement of Jackson’s Bronco hype agenda and had this bon mot for last week’s viewers of NFL Countdown:

“Forget my opinion because the people in New England think they know more about football than anyone else…”

Nice thin skin, Cris.  All of those years cloistered over on HBO must have left you without the means to cope with some criticism.  My deepest sympathies.

But, hold on, Cris.  You may want to rethink that statement.  Ya see, Carter has backtracked on his words of football knowledge before, as in two weeks ago, when he sounded like someone who will say almost anything to prove like he’s an expert in football analysis. 

His former co-worker at Yahoo! Sports, Charles Robinson, brings up Carter’s rip-job of Matt Millen for drafting Michigan State WR Charles Rogers and former USC WR Mike Williams in his Loser section of his column.  In Cris’ world, he thought that he should have been consulted on both guys since he knew that they were bums due to their poor special workout with him and should have never been drafted. But Robinson totally submarines that hindsight revisionist anecdote with citations from Carter right before each draft.

So, Cris,  we as New England Patriots fans may not have as much football knowledge as you might but we just want to prevent you from becoming a victim of athlete’s mouth so soon after your last incident.

Okay, enough of that, on to this week’s match-up:

This Week – San Diego Chargers (2-3; Against AFC East 1-1)

It Takes a Tough Fan to Root For a Team With Such a Tender D

The rest of this column is a little personal for yours truly; at least from a fantasy position.  In case you’re not in the same boat, let me give you a few numbers: 247, 350, 271, 277, and 228.  No, it’s not the budget numbers for AIG’s next five executives-only retreats after they got the government cheese bail-out.  It’s much more drastic than that.

Those numbers reflect San Diego’s opponent’s QB game total passing yards.  Out of those five games, only once did San Diego have the higher passing yardage (by 27 over Jay Cutler’s 350).  Let look into each game a little further, shall we?

Game 1 – versus Carolina (L, 26-24):  The Panthers were trying to comeback after a 2007 lost season due to Jake Delhomme’s early season injury but without their main WR weapon, Steve Smith, who was suspended for two games.  San Diego was in the 2007 AFC Championship with a Top 5 defense.  The Chargers couldn’t dial up a better way to start your opening home game.  But, instead of going after Delhomme savagely, he picked them apart by going 23 of 41 (56.1% CP) for 247 and 1 TD.  His biggest weapon?  A TE named Dante Rosario who grabbed 7 balls for 96 yards and that lone score.  Dante must found his way back to Hell as he’s only caught 5 passes for 42 yards in the other games with a big doughnut in last week’s 34-0 blowout of KC.  Folks, this is just the beginning.

Game 2 -at Denver (L, 39-38):  This game should be titled “Jay Cutler’s Coming Out Party”.  The former Vandy QB shredded the once-vaunted Charger D for 36 of 50 (a sick 72% CP) for 350 yards and 4 TDs.  Denver had 34 first downs, allowed only one sack and one turnover.  Brandon Marshall was a one-man WR-ecking crew with 18 catches for 166 yards and one touchdown.  But the final salt in the once-a-paper cut-now-an-open-gash of a wound for all SD fans – the 2-point conversion to win the game with 29 seconds left.  That move proved in only two games that last year’s vaunted San Diego defense was but a memory to a majority of NFL fans.

Game 3: versus NYJ (W, 48-29):  Fans still could barely muster any excitement for the first win of the season when they looked at the online box score.  Brett Favre threw for a very efficient (for him anyway) 30 for 42 (71.4% CP) for 271 yards, 3 TD with only 2 picks.  There was a bright spot for the defense on this game when Antonio Cromartie too one of his two INTs for a TD but how can you let Favre complete over 70% of his passes?  He’s the old Green Bay Gunslinger, the guy who plays the game the way it should by throwing game-killer incompletions and INTs.

Game 4: at Oakland (W, 28-18): The last game of Lane Kiffin’s Oaktown tenure; although it wasn’t his worse game since his team was leading this game for three quarters.  The Raiders had the lead thanks in part to the Bolts’ laissez faire D, including a 63-yd pitch and catch from QB JaMarcus Russell to slow TE Zach Miller.  Prior to this game, Miller only had six catches for 58 yards. Russell also had the top performance of this season in attempts, completions and passing yards.  When you look at the number of turnovers (I fumble, 1 INT and six sacks), you have to wonder how the Raiders scored 18 points; much less lead for 3/4^th of the game.

Game 5: at Miami (L, 17-10): There’s no shame in losing to Miami this year (thanks to the latest wrinkle from high school football, the Wildcat) and SD wasn’t torched like the Pats were three weeks ago.  But Chad Pennington threw for more yards against SD then he did against NE, had no INTs, only one sack and threw 22 of 29 (75.9% CP) for a QB Rating of 109.6.   In fact, Miami was so in control of this game that only a late score by Chris Chambers saved San Diego from being held to single digits. 

The main question is – How is this underwhelming and underperforming defense possible with the supposed younger lineup that San Diego has?  Granted, there was going to be an inevitable drop-off when Lights Out Merriman was sidelined, but he doesn’t play all 11 positions on the field; especially the defensive backfield.

San Diego ranks 32^nd in total passing yards allowed with 265.6 yds/game.  They also rank 28^th in total yards allowed with 379.0 yds/game.  They allow 25.8 points per game (24^th in the NFL) and allow passer to complete 66.7% of their passes (26^th in the NFL).  Staggering numbers to say the least from what was predicted to be one of the Top 5 defenses at the start of the season.

By looking at the first five games, these numbers are more indicative of something deeper than a beginning of the season slump.  This is a trend that the Pats should try to capitalize on for the outset.  They should run an effective, West Coast-like ball-controlled passing attack.  With LaMont Jordan dinged and the lackluster play of Laurence Maroney, their strength, as it was last year, is at the WR position.  Playing to their strengths is something that we have come to expect from Belichick and crew and Sunday night should be no exception.

Next week brings those wonderful Broncos into town.  You know that Jackson, Schlereth and Mumbles will be waiting with baited breath.  We will too.  Until then, keep it between the lines.