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Patriots/Broncos Preview From AccuScore

December 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 67% chance to beat the Denver Broncos. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 41 rushing yards and a 28% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 33% of simulations where Denver Broncos wins, Tim Tebow averages 1.04 TD passes vs 0.34 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.82 TDs to 0.73 interceptions. Willis McGahee averages 114 rushing yards and 1.11 rushing TDs when Denver Broncos wins and 71 yards and 0.52 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots has a 10% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is DEN +3 — Over/Under line is 46.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Denver Broncos ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-6-0 All Games 7-6-0 No Edge
Road Games 4-3-0 Home Games 1-5-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 6-6-0 When Underdog 6-3-0 Denver Broncos
Non-Division Opp 4-5-0 Non-Division Opp 4-4-0 Denver Broncos
Opp .500+ Record 4-4-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-5-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Denver Broncos ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 5-11-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 3-5-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 4-8-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 3-7-0 New England Patriots
Opp Under .500 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-3-0 Denver Broncos

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD Denver Broncos O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 8-5-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 7-6-0 OVER
On Road 5-2-0 At Home 4-2-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 10-6-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 6-2-0 OVER

Playoff Odds

Rookie T.J. Yates led Houston to history Sunday with a dramatic comeback victory over San Francisco.  The win clinched the AFC South and the first playoff spot in history for the Texans.  Right now, the team also holds tiebreakers over New England and Baltimore for the top seed in the AFC.  The Patriots should be the next team to clinch their division as they are 99.8 percent likely to do so according to simulations.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are still battling for the AFC North crown and seeding with the Ravens currently leading at 58.2 percent probability.

Tim Tebow and the Broncos made the biggest jump this week after finally taking over the lead in the AFC West outright.  Denver gained 21.7 percentage points in playoff probability, and is 62.3 percent likely to win the division. On the flip side, Oakland dropped 15.7 percentage points to be just 34.1 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  San Diego kept its slim hopes of salvaging the season alive with another win, but still lost ground because of the Denver win.  The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 in 10 simulations.

With Baltimore and Pittsburgh both 10-3, there is only 1 remaining playoff spot available in the AFC.  The Jets have won three straight games and are currently the most likely team to win the final Wild Card spot.  New York gained over 20 percentage points in playoff probability from last week, and is 46.1 percent likely to make the postseason.  Despite a run of poor form, Oakland is still next in line at 34.1 percent.  Tennessee couldn’t pull off the upset against New Orleans and is 24.4 percent probability. The biggest loser this week was Cincinnati.  The shocking last second loss to Houston eliminated the Bengals from a shot (albeit long) at the AFC North, and pushed them to back of the line for the Wild Card.  They are currently 7-6 and make the playoffs in just 15.3 percent of simulations.

AFC WEEK 14 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 14 WK 15 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 48.3% 70.0% 21.7% 62.3%
NEW YORK JETS 25.5% 46.1% 20.7% 0.2%
HOUSTON TEXANS 93.3% 100.0% 6.7% 100.0%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 98.2% 99.5% 1.3% 58.2%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 99.8% 99.9% 0.2% 99.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 99.9% 0.2% 41.8%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 11.2% 9.6% -1.6% 8.4%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2.7% 0.3% -2.4% 0.3%
TENNESSEE TITANS 31.7% 24.4% -7.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 49.9% 34.1% -15.7% 29.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 39.8% 15.3% -24.5% 0.0%
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Redskins Preview From AccuScore

December 7, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 78% of simulations over the Washington Redskins. Tom Brady is averaging 295 passing yards and 2.34 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 44 rushing yards and a 34% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 22% of simulations where Washington Redskins wins, Rex Grossman averages 1.67 TD passes vs 1.1 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.14 TDs to 2.12 interceptions. Roy Helu averages 104 rushing yards and 0.81 rushing TDs when Washington Redskins wins and 57 yards and 0.28 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots have a 59% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 89% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is WAS +9 — Over/Under line is 48

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD WASHINGTON REDSKINS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-5-0 All Games 5-7-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-2-0 Home Games 2-4-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 6-5-0 When Underdog 4-6-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 4-4-0 Non-Division Opp 2-6-0 New England Patriots
Opp Under .500 2-1-0 Opp .500+ Record 2-4-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD WASHINGTON REDSKINS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 8-6-2 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 3-3-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 8-5-2 Washington Redskins
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 4-4-2 New England Patriots
Opp Under .500 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-3-2 Washington Redskins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD WASHINGTON REDSKINS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 7-5-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 5-7-0 No Edge
On Road 4-2-0 At Home 3-3-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 6-10-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 3-5-0 OVER

AFC Playoff Chances

Tim Tebow did it again.  After more late game drama – this time in Minnesota – Tebow led his team to a win.  Denver has now won 6 of its last 7 games, and took over first place on the strength of a tiebreaker against Oakland.  The Raiders are still the slight favorites according to the computers, winning the AFC West 45.9 percent of the time.  The Broncos win the division 41.6 percent of the time.  A week ago the Raiders were nearly 80 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  Now they are just a 50-50.  Denver basically has the same odds as Oakland to reach the postseason, gaining nearly 19 percentage points over last week.  San Diego kept its slim hopes alive for a late run at the division title with its first win in eight weeks.

Aside from the AFC West, the other divisions look to be all but over.  New England is the leader in the East, Houston in the South, and either Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the North.  Whichever team doesn’t win the North will take one Wild Card spot.  That leaves one spot open in the postseason with four 7-5 teams vying for it.

Both West teams are in contention for the final Wild Card depending on which ultimately wins the division.  The other squads involved are the Bengals, Titans, and Jets.  After Week 13, AccuScore simulations favor both AFC West teams to make the postseason.  Cincinnati is next at just under 40 percent probability, but that is 17.7 percentage points worse than a week ago.  Tennessee gained 8.6 percentage points after a solid win over the Bills.  The Titans are 31.7 percent likely for the playoffs.  New York is really in a bind because it does not currently hold tiebreakers against its direct competition for the final playoff spot.

AFC WEEK 13 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 13 WK 14 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 29.7% 48.3% 18.6% 41.6%
TENNESSEE TITANS 23.1% 31.7% 8.6% 10.6%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 4.6% 11.2% 6.6% 10.0%
NEW YORK JETS 21.6% 25.5% 3.9% 0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 89.6% 93.3% 3.7% 89.4%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 96.9% 99.8% 2.9% 46.3%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 96.3% 98.2% 1.9% 53.6%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 99.6% 99.8% 0.2% 99.6%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 1.5% 0.0% -1.4% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 57.5% 39.8% -17.7% 0.1%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 78.9% 49.9% -29.1% 45.9%
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Colts Preview From Accuscore

November 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 94% of simulations over the Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady is averaging 299 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 74 rushing yards and a 55% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 6% of simulations where Indianapolis Colts wins, Dan Orlovsky averages 1.65 TD passes vs 0.47 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.97 TDs to 0.94 interceptions. Joseph Addai averages 41 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing TDs when Indianapolis Colts wins and 26 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 64% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 97% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -21 — Over/Under line is 49.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 2-9-0 All Games 7-4-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 1-4-0 Home Games 3-2-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 2-8-0 When Favored 6-4-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 2-6-0 Non-Division Opp 4-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 2-4-0 Opp Under .500 2-0-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 8-8-1 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-3-1 Home Games 5-4-0 Indianapolis Colts
When Underdog 2-0-0 When Favored 8-6-0 Indianapolis Colts
Non-Division Opp 6-4-1 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 7-1-1 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 Indianapolis Colts

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 6-5-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 6-5-0 OVER
On Road 3-2-0 At Home 2-3-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 10-7-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 7-1-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER

AFC Playoff Picture

The Raiders have taken over the lead in the AFC West at 7-4 after winning 3 in a row.  They are 75.2 percent likely to win the division and currently hold a one game lead over the Broncos.  Tim Tebow has led Denver to wins in 4 of the last 5 games, making his team the biggest gainer in the projected standings this week.  The Broncos are 20.1 percent likely to win the division.  San Diego has fallen off a cliff losing six games in a row, and now, the Chargers only have a 4.6 percent chance at making the playoffs.  The Chiefs are going nowhere fast with Tyler Palko and are almost eliminated from the playoff chase.

Three AFC North teams are again projected as playoff teams this week.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both better than 96 percent likely to reach the postseason.  The Ravens, though, have the inside track at the division at 51.5 percent followed by the Steelers at 42.6 percent.  Cincinnati is the leader for the final Wild Card spot making the playoffs 57.5 percent of the time.  Cleveland has actually played some decent football of late, but the Browns reached 0.0 percent in playoff probability this week.

Houston is down to its third string quarterback, but still leads the AFC South by two games and is the overwhelming favorite to win the division.  The Texans did lose 5.2 percentage points in playoff probability this week, but they are still 89.6 percent likely to reach the postseason.  Tennessee still has a chance of catching the Texans, gaining 6.9 percentage points in this week’s projections.  Jacksonville fell to 0.0 percent probability after another loss.  Indianapolis has an 18.5 percent chance of finishing the season winless.

New England is getting closer to lock status for the playoffs at 99.6 percent probability.  The Jets survived a battle with division rival Buffalo to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.  New York is still in a precarious position, but reaches the playoffs in 21.6 percent of simulations.  Buffalo was effectively eliminated with the loss, losing 9.5 percentage points this week.  Miami came close to winning its fourth in a row; but instead, the Dolphins were eliminated completely from playoff contention according to AccuScore simulations.

AFC WEEK 12 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 12 WK 13 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 20.3% 29.7% 9.4% 20.1%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 49.0% 57.5% 8.5% 5.9%
TENNESSEE TITANS 16.3% 23.1% 6.9% 13.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 75.1% 78.9% 3.8% 75.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 92.9% 96.3% 3.4% 51.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 98.8% 99.6% 0.8% 99.4%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.9% 0.9% -0.1% 0.8%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 97.3% 96.9% -0.4% 42.6%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.0% -0.7% 0.0%
NEW YORK JETS 23.2% 21.6% -1.6% 0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 94.8% 89.6% -5.2% 87.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 10.5% 1.5% -9.0% 0.2%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 20.0% 4.6% -15.4% 3.9%
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Chiefs Preview From Accuscore

November 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 84% of simulations over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is averaging 318 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 61 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 15% of simulations where Kansas City Chiefs wins, Tyler Palko averages 1.64 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.09 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. Jackie Battle averages 67 rushing yards and 0.45 rushing TDs when Kansas City Chiefs wins and 49 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -14 — Over/Under line is 48

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 5-4-0 All Games 5-4-0 No Edge
Road Games 3-1-0 Home Games 2-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs
When Underdog 5-2-0 When Favored 4-4-0 Kansas City Chiefs
Non-Division Opp 2-3-0 Non-Division Opp 2-3-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 3-1-0 Opp Under .500 0-0-0 No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 8-8-1 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 3-4-1 Home Games 5-4-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 4-3-1 When Favored 8-6-0 No Edge
Non-Division Opp 7-3-1 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 2-3-1 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 3-6-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 5-4-0 UNDER
On Road 2-2-0 At Home 2-2-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 8-9-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 4-4-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER
Updated AFC Playoff Odds
The Chargers have been the favorite in the AFC West all season.  That is no longer the case after Week 10, as the Raiders take over the projected top spot in the AccuScore playoff projections.  Oakland is 58.8 percent likely to win the division jumping an incredible 42.2 percentage points in playoff probability in just one week.  The Raiders won head-to-head on Thursday and now hold a one-game lead over the Chargers, Chiefs, and Broncos.  San Diego saw its playoff odds literally cut in half after the loss, losing 35.7 percent points in the projections.  The Chargers are still the second favorite to win the division, however, even after losing four straight games.  Denver has won three out of four with quarterback Tim Tebow to get back into the division race.  It will take at least another win for the computers to take the Broncos seriously, as they are winning the division just 4.7 percent of the time.  The Chiefs have lost two straight and win the West 4.0 percent of the time.

Without a doubt, the AFC South is the division that will be most decided by injury this season.  The Colts have floundered all year without Peyton Manning and have still not won a game. After the 17-3 loss to the Jags, the Colts are 11.7 percent to go 0-16.  The Texans have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Colts’ struggles, but now have lost quarterback Matt Schaub for the season.  Still, Houston has won four games in a row and is still the overwhelmingly choice for the division.  The Texans are projected to win the division 88.6 percent of the time, a drop of less than 4 percent from a week ago.  Their biggest competitor is the Titans who doubled their playoff probability this week.  Part of the Titans’ gain is due to Schaub’s injury, and part is due to a blowout win over Carolina.  Jacksonville beat Indy for its third win of the year but still remains an extreme longshots for the postseason.

New England reestablished control of the AFC East with a 21-point road win over rival New York.  The Patriots are back to being the most likely playoff team and division winner in the conference, gaining 9.2 percentage points in probability this week.  The Jets, meanwhile, are still in a real dogfight for a Wild Card berth, and make the playoffs 30.9 percent of the time in simulations, a drop of 9.3 percent from last week.  Buffalo is also in trouble for the postseason.  The Bills make the playoffs in 20.9 percent of simulations, a drop of 6.5 percent.  Miami has won twice in a row, but the brutal start to the season still leaves the Dolphins with no chance for the playoffs.

The AFC North has proven to be the best division in football this year and one of the most difficult to predict.  The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road to stake claim to role of favorites.  Pittsburgh wins the division 48.6 percent of the time while making the playoffs 91.5 percent of the time.  Cincinnati is one of the big surprises of the year, and still played well despite losing.  The Bengals are currently projected to win one of the Wild Card spots making the playoffs 68.4 percent of the time.  Baltimore is tied with Cincy at 6-3, but has shown maddening inconsistency week to week.  The Ravens only had to beat lowly Seattle to stay firmly in control of the division, but the Ravens, again, lost on the road.  They are still 77.4 percent likely to make the postseason but fell out of first place in the North.  The Browns are the only team out of the race with just a 0.2 percent chance of a miracle playoff berth.

AFC WEEK 10 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 10 WK 11 % DIFF WIN DIV
OAKLAND RAIDERS 18.6% 60.8% 42.2% 58.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 81.1% 91.5% 10.5% 48.6%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 85.9% 95.1% 9.2% 88.8%
TENNESSEE TITANS 9.0% 18.2% 9.2% 11.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 3.6% 5.5% 2.0% 4.7%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.7% 0.5% -0.2% 0.4%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0%
HOUSTON TEXANS 92.6% 90.8% -1.8% 88.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 83.5% 77.4% -6.1% 33.2%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 74.6% 68.4% -6.2% 18.2%
BUFFALO BILLS 27.4% 20.9% -6.5% 7.1%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 10.9% 4.3% -6.7% 4.0%
NEW YORK JETS 40.2% 30.9% -9.3% 4.1%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 71.3% 35.7% -35.7% 32.5%
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Giants Preview From AccuScore

November 2, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 71% chance to beat the New York Giants. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 56 rushing yards and a 43% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 29% of simulations where New York Giants wins, Eli Manning averages 2.6 TD passes vs 0.76 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.89 TDs to 1.4 interceptions. Ahmad Bradshaw averages 58 rushing yards and 0.52 rushing TDs when New York Giants wins and 39 yards and 0.27 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 88% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -9 — Over/Under line is 52

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

NEW YORK GIANTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 3-3-1 All Games 4-3-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 2-1-0 Home Games 2-1-0 No Edge
When Underdog 1-0-0 When Favored 4-3-0 New York Giants
Non-Division Opp 2-2-1 Non-Division Opp 2-2-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 1-0-1 Opp .500+ Record 3-3-0 New York Giants

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

NEW YORK GIANTS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-9-0 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-4-0 Home Games 5-4-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 2-3-0 When Favored 8-6-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 5-5-0 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 3-4-0 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

NEW YORK GIANTS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 4-2-1 All Totals (O-U-P) 4-3-0 OVER
On Road 2-1-0 At Home 2-1-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 8-7-1 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 4-4-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER
AFC  Playoff Odds

The Chargers are doing their best to lose the very winnable AFC West despite a significant talent advantage on paper.  San Diego lost in embarrassing fashion Monday night to the rival Chiefs who all of a sudden have won 4 games in a row.  The Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders are now all tied for the division lead at 4-3.  San Diego was the biggest loser in the league this week dropping a whopping 20.8 percentage points in the projected playoff standings.  While the Chargers still project as the favorite in the division, both Kansas City and Oakland made significant gains in this week’s projections.  Denver is the only division team out of the race.

A Buffalo win and a New England loss improbably keep the two teams tied atop the AFC East heading into Week 9 at 5-2.  The Bills were impressive in shutting out Washington, and they gained 10.1 percentage points in the projections as a result.  New England continues to be an overwhelming favorite for the playoffs, but the door remains open for the Bills to win the division.  New York actually lost 6.7 percentage points this week despite having a bye because of the gains made by other Wild Card contenders.  Miami continues to invent ways to lose ball games.

Pittsburgh beat the Patriots to become the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 93.5 percent.  The Steelers also pushed their likelihood of a division title to 67.4 percent.  Baltimore struggled to beat Arizona, but the 21-point comeback allowed the Ravens to remain steady in the projections.  Cincinnati is actually tied with Baltimore at 5-2 and gained 5 percentage points in the standings.  The Bengals are a nice story, but won’t be considered real contenders unless they can beat the Steelers and Ravens head to head later on in the year.  The Browns make the playoffs in only 1.7 percent of simulations.

Houston is the only team in the AFC South to have outscored its opposition.  The Texans are solid 87.9 percent favorites to win the division as Tennessee is the only real competition remaining.  The projection for the Titans remained virtually unchanged after an expected win against foundering Indianapolis.  Indy remains winless on the year and is the first team to reach 0.0 percent in playoff probability.  Jacksonville is down to just 1.0 percent with a record of 2-6.

AFC WEEK 8 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 8 WK 9 % DIFF WIN DIV
BUFFALO BILLS 43.2% 53.3% 10.1% 21.2%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 9.2% 19.0% 9.8% 14.7%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 33.4% 39.0% 5.6% 34.2%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 30.9% 35.8% 5.0% 7.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 89.6% 93.5% 3.9% 67.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 86.2% 88.8% 2.6% 87.9%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TENNESSEE TITANS 16.2% 16.1% -0.1% 11.3%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 1.4% 0.5% -0.9% 0.4%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 73.3% 72.3% -0.9% 25.4%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2.4% 1.0% -1.4% 0.9%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 3.4% 1.7% -1.8% 0.2%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 95.8% 91.9% -3.9% 70.4%
NEW YORK JETS 36.2% 29.5% -6.7% 8.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 78.4% 57.6% -20.8% 50.7%
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Steelers Preview From AccuScore

October 25, 2011 By 1 Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the New England Patriots winning 49% of simulations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 32% of simulations and they go on to win 75% when they take care of the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging 297 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 287 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PIT +3 — Over/Under line is 50.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Pittsburgh Steelers ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 4-2-0 All Games 3-4-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 2-1-0 Home Games 2-1-0 No Edge
When Favored 4-2-0 When Underdog 0-2-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 2-1-0 Non-Division Opp 3-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 3-2-0 Opp .500+ Record 1-1-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Pittsburgh Steelers ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 12-7-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 7-3-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 3-2-0 Pittsburgh Steelers
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 6-6-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 Opp .500+ Record 4-5-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD Pittsburgh Steelers O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 4-2-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 4-3-0 OVER
On Road 2-1-0 At Home 1-2-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 10-9-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 5-5-0 OVER

AFC Playoff Odds

Houston made a massive leap in playoff probability this week gaining 20.7 percentage points.  The Texans benefitted in two ways: a blowout win over their closest competition in the Titans, and continued poor performances from both Indianapolis and Jacksonville.  Despite being just 4-3, Houston has an 85.2 percent chance of winning the AFC South.  Tennessee dropped 21 percentage points in playoff probability, the largest drop in the conference.

Baltimore shockingly lost to Jacksonville Monday night gaining just 146 total yards.  Such a poor outing against a bad team in the Jaguars led to the Ravens losing 15.1 percentage points in this week’s projections.  A real pattern has already developed this season with Baltimore playing well at home, and extremely poorly on the road.  Pittsburgh benefitted greatly from the Ravens misfortune becoming the division favorite again at 60.5 percent.  The Bengals continue to play well and made a significant jump of 8.1 percentage points up to 30.9 percent likelihood.

New York continued its revival comeback in a big way against San Diego to win for the second win in a row.  The Jets made the second biggest gain in the projections this week gaining 12.1 percentage points.  New England is still easily the favorite in the AFC and the East.  Buffalo was off on a bye and remained steady at 43.2 percent.

The Chargers were not negatively affected much by the loss in New York.  Despite playing very poorly in the second half, they were on the road and not favored outright anyways.  Oakland’s quarterbacks on the other hand threw six interceptions and showed that all might not be well without Jason Campbell going forward.  The Raiders lost a whopping 17.6 percentage points in playoff probability this week heading into their bye week.  Tim Tebow flashed some of his old magic to win in Miami, but the computer still doesn’t believe in the Broncos.  Denver is only making the playoffs in 0.8 percent of simulations.

AFC WEEK 7 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 7 WK 8 % DIFF WIN DIV
HOUSTON TEXANS 65.5% 86.2% 20.7% 85.2%
NEW YORK JETS 24.2% 36.2% 12.1% 7.5%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 22.7% 30.9% 8.1% 7.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 82.4% 89.6% 7.2% 60.5%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 3.4% 9.2% 5.7% 5.6%
BUFFALO BILLS 42.2% 43.2% 1.0% 10.4%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 1.4% 2.4% 1.0% 2.3%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 2.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.8%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 95.1% 95.8% 0.7% 82.1%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 1.2% 0.5% -0.6% 0.5%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 82.1% 78.4% -3.7% 71.5%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 88.3% 73.3% -15.1% 31.7%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 51.1% 33.4% -17.6% 22.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 37.3% 16.2% -21.0% 12.0%
Filed Under: Games

AFC Playoff Odds From AccuScore

October 19, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

AFC

The Bengals are somehow 4-2 and have won 3 games in a row.  Still, Cincinnati is not quite a contender making the playoffs in 25.7 percent of simulations but it’s getting close.  That number represents a 10.3 percentage point gain from a week ago.  The problem is the in-division competition in the AFC North.  Baltimore is the favorite for the division at 53.7 percent with Pittsburgh trailing at 40.5 percent.  Both teams are well over 80 percent odds to make the postseason.  Cleveland is the one North team already out of the picture.

Oakland suffered the biggest drop in the conference despite winning because of the injury to Jason Campbell.  The Raiders dropped 12.7 percentage points, but the recent acquisition of veteran Carson Palmer could reverse those fortunes.  The Chargers benefitted from the injury despite being off on a bye week gaining 5.7 percentage points to add to their projected AFC West lead.  Kansas City and Denver also benefitted slightly but the two teams combine to win the division just 2.2 percent of simulations.

The Jets got a big win on Monday night to reach .500 at 3-3.  That moved New York up 4.9 percentage points which would have been more had it been over a better team than Miami.  The Dolphins are now the first team to reach 0.0 percent in playoff odds, and they are well on their way to winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  Buffalo suffered a heartbreaker to New York this week, one that could be critical in the standings.  The Bills fell to 44.5 percent playoff odds and would slot in the final Wild Card spot in the AFC for now.  New England continues to roll as the most likely playoff participant in the AFC.

Houston didn’t look great without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams in a loss to the Ravens.  To be fair, Baltimore’s defense shuts down most teams, but Johnson’s injury has to be a bit of a concern given how much Matt Schaub relies on him in the passing game.  The Texans are still the favorite in the AFC South for now at nearly 63 percent for the division.  Tennessee is next at 34.7 percent, and made only minimal gains because of a bye.  Jacksonville and Indianapolis are a combined 1-11 and win the division a combined 2.5 percent of the time.

AFC WEEK 6 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 6 WK 7 % DIFF WIN DIV
CINCINNATI BENGALS 15.4% 25.7% 10.3% 5.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 83.6% 89.3% 5.7% 82.4%
NEW YORK JETS 21.5% 26.4% 4.9% 5.1%
TENNESSEE TITANS 35.2% 38.9% 3.7% 34.7%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 85.8% 89.0% 3.2% 53.7%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 94.1% 95.9% 1.8% 83.1%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 3.0% 4.7% 1.6% 1.9%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 1.7% 1.5% -0.2% 1.5%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 1.4% 1.1% -0.4% 1.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 5.2% 2.7% -2.5% 0.4%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 86.6% 83.9% -2.6% 40.5%
HOUSTON TEXANS 68.9% 64.7% -4.2% 62.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 53.2% 44.5% -8.6% 11.9%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 43.4% 30.8% -12.7% 15.4%
Filed Under: Media

Patriots/Jets Preview From Accuscore (And Playoff Odds)

October 5, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 81% of simulations over the New York Jets. Tom Brady is averaging 264 passing yards and 1.8 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 63 rushing yards and a 49% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 19% of simulations where New York Jets wins, Mark Sanchez averages 1.67 TD passes vs 0.74 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.13 TDs to 1.46 interceptions. Shonn Greene averages 71 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs when New York Jets wins and 47 yards and 0.19 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 49% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 92% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -9.5 — Over/Under line is 48.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New York Jets ATS RECORD New England Patriots ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 1-3-0 All Games 3-1-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 0-2-0 Home Games 1-0-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 0-1-0 When Favored 3-1-0 New England Patriots
Division Opp 0-0-0 Division Opp 1-1-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New York Jets ATS RECORD New England Patriots ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-8-0 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 7-4-0 Home Games 5-4-0 New York Jets
When Underdog 5-3-0 When Favored 8-6-0 New York Jets
Division Opp 5-2-0 Division Opp 4-3-0 New York Jets
Opp .500+ Record 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New York Jets O-U-P RECORD New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 OVER
On Road 2-0-0 At Home 1-0-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 14-5-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 10-1-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER

Also from Accuscore:

AFC PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 4

Just a week after becoming a 50-50 bet for the playoffs, the Bills came crashing back to Earth losing a 14 point lead to the Bengals.  Buffalo dropped 13.8 percentage points in playoff probability this week but, at 3-1, are still exceeding expectations.  New England bounced back from last week’s upset at the hands of those Bills to beat the Raiders.  The Pats are still the most likely playoff team in the AFC at nearly 94 percent.  New York is on the opposite end of the spectrum from New England, getting beat up by the Ravens, and plagued by serious questions on offense.  The Jets dropped nearly 11 percent in playoff probability this week, and New York makes the playoffs in less than a third of simulations.  The Dolphins remain in the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Baltimore exposed Mark Sanchez for the average quarterback our computers believe he is and, as a result, got a big win on Sunday night.  The Ravens are 3-1 now and overtook the Steelers as the favorites to win the AFC North at 50 percent.  The Steelers remain a solid favorite for a playoff spot at 82.1 percent, but must now deal with even more injuries to key players (James Harrison, Ben Roethliesberger, offensive line).  The Bengals continue to be feisty behind rookie Andy Dalton, but they are not real contenders just yet, making the playoffs 12.9 percent of the time.  The Browns were thought to be improved this season, but they are projected to finish last in the division after four weeks..

One of the most improved teams this season appears to be Tennessee.  Matt Hasselbeck has had a great rebound season thus far, leading the Titans to a 3-1 record.  Tennessee made the biggest jump this week, gaining 13.2 percentage points, and the Titans are up to 41.8 percent to make the postseason.  Houston got Arian Foster back, and he has helped boost an already terrific offense.  He will be needed as star wideout Andre Johnson suffered a serious injury and will be out an indefinite period of time.  The Texans, however, are still the favorites to win the South at 70.4 percent.  Jacksonville continues to sink as it transitions to rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert.  Indianapolis put up a fight on Monday night against Tampa, but the Colts remain winless on the season.

San Diego is not playing the best football, but the Chargers have a substantial lead in the projected AFC West standings.  The Chargers gained nine percentage points this week and are making the playoffs 89.1 percent of the time.  That is second best in the conference behind the Patriots.  Oakland was among the biggest gainers last week, but the Raiders made an equivalent drop this week, down to 34.5 percent.  Combined, Denver and Kansas City only win the division 1.3 percent of the time.  Both are serious contenders for the worst record in the NFL.

AFC WEEK 4 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK4 WK5 % DIFF WIN DIV
TENNESSEE TITANS 28.6% 41.8% 13.2% 26.8%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 80.1% 89.1% 9.0% 82.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 87.0% 93.9% 6.9% 80.7%
HOUSTON TEXANS 71.7% 78.6% 6.9% 70.4%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 7.3% 12.9% 5.6% 2.5%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 79.9% 83.3% 3.4% 50.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 6.8% 7.2% 0.4% 1.6%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3%
DENVER BRONCOS 1.8% 2.0% 0.2% 1.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2.6% 1.8% -0.8% 1.1%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 2.3% 1.3% -1.0% 0.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 86.7% 82.1% -4.6% 45.9%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 7.4% 2.6% -4.8% 1.8%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 44.9% 34.5% -10.4% 16.7%
NEW YORK JETS 43.4% 32.5% -10.9% 9.4%
BUFFALO BILLS 49.6% 35.8% -13.8% 9.8%
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Raiders Preview From Accuscore

September 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat the Oakland Raiders. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 46 rushing yards and a 33% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 39% of simulations where Oakland Raiders wins, Jason Campbell averages 1.33 TD passes vs 0.54 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.1 TDs to 1.07 interceptions. Darren McFadden averages 101 rushing yards and 0.83 rushing TDs when Oakland Raiders wins and 68 yards and 0.43 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots has a 27% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 86% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is OAK +4.5 — Over/Under line is 53.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Oakland Raiders ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 2-1-0 All Games 3-0-0 Oakland Raiders
Road Games 1-1-0 Home Games 1-0-0 Oakland Raiders
When Favored 2-1-0 When Underdog 3-0-0 Oakland Raiders
Non-Division Opp 1-0-0 Non-Division Opp 2-0-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Oakland Raiders

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Oakland Raiders ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 11-6-0 All Games 8-8-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 6-2-0 Home Games 4-4-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 8-6-0 When Underdog 6-6-0 New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 Non-Division Opp 2-8-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 Opp .500+ Record 5-4-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD Oakland Raiders O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 3-0-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 3-0-0 OVER
On Road 2-0-0 At Home 1-0-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 All Totals Last Season 10-6-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 6-2-0 At Home Last Season 6-2-0 OVER
Filed Under: Games

Patriots/Bills Preview From Accuscore

September 20, 2011 By 1 Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a solid favorite with a 65% chance to beat the Buffalo Bills. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 63 rushing yards and a 43% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 35% of simulations where Buffalo Bills wins, Ryan Fitzpatrick averages 2.54 TD passes vs 0.71 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.83 TDs to 1.33 interceptions. Fred Jackson averages 75 rushing yards and 0.49 rushing TDs in Buffalo Bills wins and 51 yards and 0.29 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots have a 31% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 85% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BUF +9 — Over/Under line is 51.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Buffalo Bills ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 2-0-0 All Games 1-1-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 1-0-0 Home Games 0-1-0 New England Patriots
When Favored 2-0-0 When Underdog 1-0-0 No Edge
Division Opp 1-0-0 Division Opp 0-0-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 14-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-14-0 New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England Patriots ATS RECORD Buffalo Bills ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-8-2 All Games 8-7-1 Buffalo Bills
Road Games 2-4-2 Home Games 3-4-0 Buffalo Bills
When Favored 6-7-1 When Underdog 5-6-1 New England Patriots
Division Opp 1-4-1 Division Opp 3-2-1 Buffalo Bills
Opp Under .500 3-3-1 Opp .500+ Record 3-2-1 Buffalo Bills

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD Buffalo Bills O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 2-0-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 2-0-0 OVER
On Road 1-0-0 At Home 1-0-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 6-10-1 All Totals Last Season 6-10-0 UNDER
On Road Last Season 2-6-0 At Home Last Season 3-5-0 UNDER
Filed Under: Games

AccuScore Team Preview

July 19, 2011 By Leave a Comment

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

Preview – The New England Patriots

The New England Patriots put together an impressive 14-2 record, which was the best regular season record in the NFL last year. With Bill Belichick still returning as head coach, and Tom Brady on schedule following a January 20th procedure to repair a stress fracture in his right foot, the Patriots will be favorites to win the AFC East again.

The Patriots are projected to finish with an 11-5 mark for the 2011-12 season, but that should still be good enough to win the AFC East and give the Pats an 88% probability of post season play. With Brady and Belichick, it’s hard to imagine the Pats not making the playoffs.

Rookie tight-end Aaron Hernandez was a revelation last season, as the former Florida Gator quickly became one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets. Hernandez caught 45 passes, scored 6 TDs, and averaged 12.5 yards/catch. Only Wes Welker had more receiving TDs than Hernandez, and Hernandez was 3rd on the team in receptions and receiving yards. Entering his 2nd season at Foxboro, the Pats have high hopes for the last year’s 4th round pick.

Projected Record: 11-5

Projected Division Finish: 1 of 4

Probability of Winning Division: 72%

Probability of Making Playoffs:  88%

Filed Under: Roster