September 27, 2016

Patriots/Chiefs Preview From Accuscore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 84% of simulations over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is averaging 318 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 61 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 15% of simulations where Kansas City Chiefs wins, Tyler Palko averages 1.64 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.09 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. Jackie Battle averages 67 rushing yards and 0.45 rushing TDs when Kansas City Chiefs wins and 49 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -14 — Over/Under line is 48

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 5-4-0 All Games 5-4-0 No Edge
Road Games 3-1-0 Home Games 2-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs
When Underdog 5-2-0 When Favored 4-4-0 Kansas City Chiefs
Non-Division Opp 2-3-0 Non-Division Opp 2-3-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 3-1-0 Opp Under .500 0-0-0 No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 8-8-1 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 3-4-1 Home Games 5-4-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 4-3-1 When Favored 8-6-0 No Edge
Non-Division Opp 7-3-1 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 2-3-1 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 3-6-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 5-4-0 UNDER
On Road 2-2-0 At Home 2-2-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 8-9-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 4-4-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER
Updated AFC Playoff Odds
The Chargers have been the favorite in the AFC West all season.  That is no longer the case after Week 10, as the Raiders take over the projected top spot in the AccuScore playoff projections.  Oakland is 58.8 percent likely to win the division jumping an incredible 42.2 percentage points in playoff probability in just one week.  The Raiders won head-to-head on Thursday and now hold a one-game lead over the Chargers, Chiefs, and Broncos.  San Diego saw its playoff odds literally cut in half after the loss, losing 35.7 percent points in the projections.  The Chargers are still the second favorite to win the division, however, even after losing four straight games.  Denver has won three out of four with quarterback Tim Tebow to get back into the division race.  It will take at least another win for the computers to take the Broncos seriously, as they are winning the division just 4.7 percent of the time.  The Chiefs have lost two straight and win the West 4.0 percent of the time.

Without a doubt, the AFC South is the division that will be most decided by injury this season.  The Colts have floundered all year without Peyton Manning and have still not won a game. After the 17-3 loss to the Jags, the Colts are 11.7 percent to go 0-16.  The Texans have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Colts’ struggles, but now have lost quarterback Matt Schaub for the season.  Still, Houston has won four games in a row and is still the overwhelmingly choice for the division.  The Texans are projected to win the division 88.6 percent of the time, a drop of less than 4 percent from a week ago.  Their biggest competitor is the Titans who doubled their playoff probability this week.  Part of the Titans’ gain is due to Schaub’s injury, and part is due to a blowout win over Carolina.  Jacksonville beat Indy for its third win of the year but still remains an extreme longshots for the postseason.

New England reestablished control of the AFC East with a 21-point road win over rival New York.  The Patriots are back to being the most likely playoff team and division winner in the conference, gaining 9.2 percentage points in probability this week.  The Jets, meanwhile, are still in a real dogfight for a Wild Card berth, and make the playoffs 30.9 percent of the time in simulations, a drop of 9.3 percent from last week.  Buffalo is also in trouble for the postseason.  The Bills make the playoffs in 20.9 percent of simulations, a drop of 6.5 percent.  Miami has won twice in a row, but the brutal start to the season still leaves the Dolphins with no chance for the playoffs.

The AFC North has proven to be the best division in football this year and one of the most difficult to predict.  The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road to stake claim to role of favorites.  Pittsburgh wins the division 48.6 percent of the time while making the playoffs 91.5 percent of the time.  Cincinnati is one of the big surprises of the year, and still played well despite losing.  The Bengals are currently projected to win one of the Wild Card spots making the playoffs 68.4 percent of the time.  Baltimore is tied with Cincy at 6-3, but has shown maddening inconsistency week to week.  The Ravens only had to beat lowly Seattle to stay firmly in control of the division, but the Ravens, again, lost on the road.  They are still 77.4 percent likely to make the postseason but fell out of first place in the North.  The Browns are the only team out of the race with just a 0.2 percent chance of a miracle playoff berth.

AFC WEEK 10 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 10 WK 11 % DIFF WIN DIV
OAKLAND RAIDERS 18.6% 60.8% 42.2% 58.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 81.1% 91.5% 10.5% 48.6%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 85.9% 95.1% 9.2% 88.8%
TENNESSEE TITANS 9.0% 18.2% 9.2% 11.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 3.6% 5.5% 2.0% 4.7%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.7% 0.5% -0.2% 0.4%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0%
HOUSTON TEXANS 92.6% 90.8% -1.8% 88.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 83.5% 77.4% -6.1% 33.2%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 74.6% 68.4% -6.2% 18.2%
BUFFALO BILLS 27.4% 20.9% -6.5% 7.1%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 10.9% 4.3% -6.7% 4.0%
NEW YORK JETS 40.2% 30.9% -9.3% 4.1%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 71.3% 35.7% -35.7% 32.5%

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