February 22, 2012


Patriots/Chiefs Preview From Accuscore

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 84% of simulations over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is averaging 318 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 61 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 15% of simulations where Kansas City Chiefs wins, Tyler Palko averages 1.64 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.09 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. Jackie Battle averages 67 rushing yards and 0.45 rushing TDs when Kansas City Chiefs wins and 49 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -14 — Over/Under line is 48

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 5-4-0 All Games 5-4-0 No Edge
Road Games 3-1-0 Home Games 2-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs
When Underdog 5-2-0 When Favored 4-4-0 Kansas City Chiefs
Non-Division Opp 2-3-0 Non-Division Opp 2-3-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 3-1-0 Opp Under .500 0-0-0 No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 8-8-1 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 3-4-1 Home Games 5-4-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 4-3-1 When Favored 8-6-0 No Edge
Non-Division Opp 7-3-1 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 2-3-1 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 3-6-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 5-4-0 UNDER
On Road 2-2-0 At Home 2-2-0 No Edge
All Totals Last Season 8-9-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 4-4-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER
Updated AFC Playoff Odds
The Chargers have been the favorite in the AFC West all season.  That is no longer the case after Week 10, as the Raiders take over the projected top spot in the AccuScore playoff projections.  Oakland is 58.8 percent likely to win the division jumping an incredible 42.2 percentage points in playoff probability in just one week.  The Raiders won head-to-head on Thursday and now hold a one-game lead over the Chargers, Chiefs, and Broncos.  San Diego saw its playoff odds literally cut in half after the loss, losing 35.7 percent points in the projections.  The Chargers are still the second favorite to win the division, however, even after losing four straight games.  Denver has won three out of four with quarterback Tim Tebow to get back into the division race.  It will take at least another win for the computers to take the Broncos seriously, as they are winning the division just 4.7 percent of the time.  The Chiefs have lost two straight and win the West 4.0 percent of the time.

Without a doubt, the AFC South is the division that will be most decided by injury this season.  The Colts have floundered all year without Peyton Manning and have still not won a game. After the 17-3 loss to the Jags, the Colts are 11.7 percent to go 0-16.  The Texans have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Colts’ struggles, but now have lost quarterback Matt Schaub for the season.  Still, Houston has won four games in a row and is still the overwhelmingly choice for the division.  The Texans are projected to win the division 88.6 percent of the time, a drop of less than 4 percent from a week ago.  Their biggest competitor is the Titans who doubled their playoff probability this week.  Part of the Titans’ gain is due to Schaub’s injury, and part is due to a blowout win over Carolina.  Jacksonville beat Indy for its third win of the year but still remains an extreme longshots for the postseason.

New England reestablished control of the AFC East with a 21-point road win over rival New York.  The Patriots are back to being the most likely playoff team and division winner in the conference, gaining 9.2 percentage points in probability this week.  The Jets, meanwhile, are still in a real dogfight for a Wild Card berth, and make the playoffs 30.9 percent of the time in simulations, a drop of 9.3 percent from last week.  Buffalo is also in trouble for the postseason.  The Bills make the playoffs in 20.9 percent of simulations, a drop of 6.5 percent.  Miami has won twice in a row, but the brutal start to the season still leaves the Dolphins with no chance for the playoffs.

The AFC North has proven to be the best division in football this year and one of the most difficult to predict.  The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road to stake claim to role of favorites.  Pittsburgh wins the division 48.6 percent of the time while making the playoffs 91.5 percent of the time.  Cincinnati is one of the big surprises of the year, and still played well despite losing.  The Bengals are currently projected to win one of the Wild Card spots making the playoffs 68.4 percent of the time.  Baltimore is tied with Cincy at 6-3, but has shown maddening inconsistency week to week.  The Ravens only had to beat lowly Seattle to stay firmly in control of the division, but the Ravens, again, lost on the road.  They are still 77.4 percent likely to make the postseason but fell out of first place in the North.  The Browns are the only team out of the race with just a 0.2 percent chance of a miracle playoff berth.

AFC WEEK 10 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 10 WK 11 % DIFF WIN DIV
OAKLAND RAIDERS 18.6% 60.8% 42.2% 58.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 81.1% 91.5% 10.5% 48.6%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 85.9% 95.1% 9.2% 88.8%
TENNESSEE TITANS 9.0% 18.2% 9.2% 11.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 3.6% 5.5% 2.0% 4.7%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.7% 0.5% -0.2% 0.4%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0%
HOUSTON TEXANS 92.6% 90.8% -1.8% 88.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 83.5% 77.4% -6.1% 33.2%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 74.6% 68.4% -6.2% 18.2%
BUFFALO BILLS 27.4% 20.9% -6.5% 7.1%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 10.9% 4.3% -6.7% 4.0%
NEW YORK JETS 40.2% 30.9% -9.3% 4.1%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 71.3% 35.7% -35.7% 32.5%

10 Crucial Things the New England Patriots Have Done Right in 2011

By Bruce Allen, Patriots Daily Staff

It is ridiculously easy to be hypercritical.

Anyone can do it. People of questionable intelligence can make an incredible living off it by hosting sports talk radio shows. It’s also a no-lose proposition, which is why so many of them do it.

Here’s a little tip for you aspiring sports media professionals out there. Pick against the local team far more than you do for them. Why? You can’t lose. If the team loses, you can sit there all smug and talk about how YOU predicted this. YOU saw this coming. If the team wins, no one cares, because they’re so happy that the team has won. See how simple it is? I’m not advocating a Fred Smerlas-like streak of picking the Patriots to win every game for 10 straight years here, but I’m saying if there is any doubt on a game, pick the home team to lose.

This also applies when analyzing the moves and decisions of the team, especially when done so in hindsight. Facts are facts, right? When looking long-term, again, it is to your benefit to pick failure. It is very hard to win in the NFL, and the odds are in your favor if you predict that a team will suffer a playoff loss. You can be as edgy and critical and negative as you want, because the chances are good that the team will not win the Super Bowl every year, and if they do, again, no one is likely to call you out on it.

So many people believe that the term objective actually means critical or negative. Only the “objective” folks see the flaws and mistakes made. Anyone who attempts to point out silly things like wins and losses, or to point out things are were done well or correctly, are labeled “fanboys.” It’s just how it is these days.

It used to be that supporting and rooting for a team and giving it your unwavering support was considered loyal. Now if you do that, you’re just a simpleton “fanboy” who roots for laundry and can’t think for himself.

Despite all that you’ve heard or read in recent weeks/months/years, the Patriots are still a very good football team. They actually do make some decisions and moves that are correct and good for the team. Contrary to the opinions of some, they do have an idea of what they’re doing down there. (Wait – I can hear it already - They haven’t won a playoff game in four years!!!!!! – which is true.) Again, I want to point out that it is HARD to win in the NFL. The other teams are getting paid and want to win too. Did you know that the San Francisco 49ers, in the midst of their great run in the 1980′s, with Joe Montana at his peak, lost in the first round THREE years in a row? Had Bill Walsh lost it? They came back and won back-to-back Super Bowls. It’s not unheard of for a very good team to lose in the postseason. Lets have a little perspective here.

The Patriots currently sit at 6-3 on the season, having completed the most arduous part of their schedule. With the injury to Texans QB Matt Schaub, the AFC is wide open. The Patriots are in a position to once again be one of the top seeds in the conference. Tom Brady has struggled at times this season, the defense has been dreadful statistically, yet they’re still wining. They must be doing something right. In the spirit of trying to counter some of the overwhelming negativity out there, let’s look at a few things the team has actually done right this season.

1.) Signing Andre Carter

While the trade for Albert Haynesworth and the signing of Shaun Ellis got much more attention, Carter has been perhaps the Patriots best defensive player thus far. His nine sacks in nine games have given the Patriots that pass-rusher everyone has been clamoring for. He has also been a professional in the locker room, adding a respected veteran voice to the young defense.  While Cris Collinsworth said on Sunday night that no one expected much from Carter, he has been a productive NFL player in the past, and is on pace for perhaps the best season of his career. A great move by the Patriots.

2.) Signing Brian Waters

With the retirement of Stephen Neal in the offseason,  the Patriots had a hole at guard. It appeared that Dan Connolly would be filling that spot, but the Patriots valued Connolly more as someone who could fill in all over the line. The decision to sign Waters has turned out to be huge, as he stepped in at guard in week one, and when center Dan Koppen was lost for the season, Connolly was needed to play center. It couldn’t have worked out any better for the Patriots, as Waters has played at his usual high level this season (Peter King has him as a mid-season All Pro) and has been another professional veteran example in the Patriots locker room.

3.) Drafting Nate Solder

When the Patriots drafted Solder, and not a pass rushing defensive end or linebacker, there was the usual hand-wringing, especially as tackle didn’t seem to be the team’s most pressing need. With Sebastian Vollmer severely limited this season with back issues, Solder has been forced into the starting lineup for several games, including the season opener in Miami, where he impressed with his play against Cameron Wake. It was thought that Solder would be given a year to acclimate before taking over for Matt Light, but Solder has been good as a starter, and if Vollmer can return to full health, the Patriots should be set at both tackles for many years.

4.) Re-signing Logan Mankins

Mankins hasn’t been his usual All-Pro self, but signing him was nonetheless a huge move for the Patriots. After the ugly, protracted contract battle, getting the guard signed signaled that the Patriots will pay the guys they feel are important enough to the core of the team. Mankins adds toughness on the offensive line, and is especially protective of Brady whenever little scuffles break out. He’s still relatively young, and should serve to help transition the offensive line to when Solder, Vollmer and Marcus Cannon are the mainstays up front.

 5.) Re-signing Matt Light

Keeping with the offensive line theme, it seemed like a given that Light would be back, but when the team drafted Solder, some thought that it might spell the end of the line for Light. While he’s never been an elite player, Light has been a Pro Bowl-caliber player throughout his career, and a leader on the line. Bringing him back proved especially important with the health issues of Vollmer, as Light’s presence allowed Nate Solder to fill in for Vollmer while Light protected Brady.

6.) Giving Kyle Arrington a two-year deal

With Devin McCourty’s struggles this season, Arrington has emerged as the Patriots top cornerback, and a playmaker at that position. Arrington’s five interceptions are tied for the league lead in that category. The Patriots could’ve just given him a one-year deal to keep his rights, but they rewarded his play from last year with a two-year deal. If Arrington continues his strong play, he might’ve been looking at a big pay raise following the season, instead, now the Patriots have him locked up for 2012 as well.

7.) Utilizing the no-huddle, hurry-up offense.

In the strategy department, the decision to try and wear out opposing defenses by keeping them on the field and preventing from substituting has been wise. They first did this in preseason, during the Tampa game, which had Bucs defenders talking after the game about how tough it was to defend when they never had a chance to catch their breath. The strategy paid off during the Jets game this week in the second half as they took advantage of a tired New York defense which just wasn’t ready to line up again, and was laboring to keep playing. This strategy will likely be used more during the course of the season, especially against teams who are determined to go all-out to get to Tom Brady. The Jets game also showed that the no-huddle doesn’t necessarily mean a hurry-up, as they went on an extended drive in the fourth quarter using the no-huddle, which essentially put the game away.

8.) Signing Mark Anderson

I hear skeptics dismissing Anderson’s five sacks because an number of them came “in garbage time.” Well, when you’re trying to put a team away, isn’t the best thing you can do is to sack the quarterback? It’s like bringing in your closer. The former Bear has been very effective in rushing the passer this season, and saw extended duty during the Jets game. Working him opposite Carter has given the Patriots a very good 1-2 combo that the opposing offensive line has to account for. He was a low-risk, cheap signing that has paid off for the Patriots.

9.) Drafting Marcus Cannon

Cannon’s story is well known by this point, the massive (6-5, 358lbs) offensive lineman was discovered to have cancer when taking his physical at the combine, which cause his draft stock to drop sharply. Once projected as a low-first or second round pick, the Patriots selected him in the fifth round, not knowing if he would even be able to play. Cannon responded well to treatment, and was placed on the active roster this morning. His story is inspirational, and his talent may make him the successor to Waters in the future.

10.) Moving Matt Patricia to safeties coach

This move might’ve seemed curious when it was made last offseason. Patricia is considered by many to be the de facto defensive coordinator. Putting him in charge of the safeties, which then included Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders and Jarrard Page along with Pat Chung, may have seemed like a step down from coaching the linebackers, which he had been doing. The move may have been an indication that the Patriots already had doubts about their personnel there, and putting Patricia there to work with the group may have given them enough to move on from Meriweather, Sanders and Page. Belichick himself also served as a secondary coach prior to becoming a defensive coordinator with the Giants, and may have placed Patricia there as a stepping stone to the role. In addition, Pepper Johnson, who with Patricia is considered the top defensive assistant, works with the defensive lineman. Moving Patricia to the secondary gives the team a top assistant with the front seven and with the secondary. I don’t know if that was the intent, but sort of splitting up the defense between the two of them makes sense, especially where there are so many young players as well as players new to the Patriots.

This list only includes this season, each season the team makes bad decisions and good decisions, just like every other team in the NFL. So while some will never tire of point out the bad decisions up and down the roster, there have been plenty of good ones, as well.

It’s easy to be critical. It’s a little harder to be objective and to look at the good as well as the bad.

Hopefully this serves as a reminder that the team has made plenty of smart decisions and that is why they continue to be successful.

Making The Grades – Patriots at Jets

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

Boy was that fun. I mean really, being a follower of the New England Patriots and seeing them not only beat their arch-rival, the New York Jets, on the road, in a game many predicted them to lose and do it in decisive, humiliating fashion? Absolutely outstanding. the 37-16 final score hardly does it justice. And lest we forget, it was a win that hearkened back to the glory days of 2003-2004, when no-names like Earthwind Moreland and Randall Gay and Hank Poteat roamed a secondary that also featured none other than all-time Pats receiver Troy Brown. On Sunday night, people named Jeff Tarpinian and Sterling Moore joined the likes of Antwuan Molden, Phillip Adams, James Ihedigbo and Tracy White to produce the Pats best, wire-to-wire defensive effort of the season. It didn’t hurt that bigger names/old standbys like Andre Carter, Rob Ninkovich and Mark Anderson came up huge. Or that Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is absolutely horrendous (64.7 passer rating against this secondary). Or that after another lethargic first-half, the Pats offense turned to the no-huddle and the decision not only liberated Tom Brady from his near month-long funk but flummoxed the Jets so thoroughly that one has to wonder what exactly was going through the heads of Rex Ryan and his defensive staff when they were game planning last week. That makes two wins in two tries for the Pats against the Jets this season and two times Bill Belichick and company coached circles around Ryan and his minions as well (which may have something to do with Ryan saluting one of his team’s die-hard fans in such a typically classy manner). The Pats needed this win about as badly as they’ve needed any in the regular season in a long time and they got it done in style. So with that, let’s get to this week’s report card.

OFFENSE: B
Quarterbacks: A-
Kind of touch-and-go again for a while with Brady, who looked skittish, off-kilter and flustered for most of the first half. He threw 25 passes before the break and completed just 1 of them and even though the pass protection was mostly good, he still rushed more than a handful of throws and got an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone, resulting in a safety. Brady was lucky to emerge from the first half relatively unscathed (he should have had at least two picks) but at the end of the half, after Sanchez presented yet another reason why he’s simply not a good QB by calling a timeout with the Jets down near the Pats goal line (which in turn allowed Brady and the Pats offense 30 extra seconds with which to operate on a half-ending drive that ended in a TD), the resurgence began. Brady led a spotless, six-play, 80-yard drive in 1:11 on which he was 5-of-7, the final completion being a feathery, perfectly placed lob to Rob Gronkowski just out the reach of a defender for a score and a lead the Pats would never relinquish. He kept up the pace in the second half, completing 12-of-14 passes for 106 yards and two more scores, doing a majority of his damage with the Pats still firmly ensconced in hurry-up mode. On more than one occasion, he was able to buy enough time (with the help of the O-line) to let his receivers get away from the Jets secondary’s coverage and still make plays. And his accuracy and sharpness seemed to increase exponentially as the game went on. He audibled fairly frequently with nearly every decision being the right one (one choice, which was a super quick rocket to Deion Branch in the flat for 17 yards while the Jets defense was still scurrying around trying to get set was particularly awesome) and just generally resembled the Brady of the previous 10 seasons as opposed to the impostor who’s been showing up since the Dallas game. Overall, 26-of-39, 329 yards, three TDs, no picks, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, a 118.4 passer rating, no sacks taken, hit only once. Welcome back, Tom. We missed you.

Running Backs: C
The night’s only real weak spot, there wasn’t much there for any Pats backs except Danny Woodhead, who ripped off a few nice gainers as Brady’s no-huddle backfield mate and finished with 38 yards on just seven carries (5.4 YPA). The Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, perhaps suffering from his nagging toe injury a little more than anyone realizes, put up his second stinker in three weeks, managing just eight yards on eight carries. Benny can’t put up numbers if he’s not in the game getting the ball but in his past four games (since the first Jets game in which he blew up for 136 yards and two TDs on 27 carries), he’s carried the ball 37 times for 127 yards and zero scores. And what’s become of Stevan Ridley? Sure, he’s playing behind a couple people, but his breakout games against Buffalo and Oakland seem like years ago as opposed to a few weeks. On a positive note, even though he didn’t see a lot of action, it was nice to see Kevin Faulk back on the field. The Pats can’t be running the ball 28 times per game and only gaining 60 yards. Clearly, the running game needs to be addressed in some fashion.

Wide Receivers: B
Not too much to report here either given the prevalence of Gronkowski in the passing game, but still a fair amount of positives to mention. Ryan made the decision to take Wes Welker away so he put his superstar corner, Darrelle Revis on the Pats top receiver and basically got what he wanted. Welker had six catches for 46 yards, statistically right there with the loss to Pittsburgh as his quietest game of the season. But, as most of the rest of his offensive teammates did, he made an impact when the tide turned to the no-huddle. Five of his six grabs came in the second half and even though the production wasn’t where it’s been in previous games, Welker has become such a major threat, his mere presence can open things up for everyone else under the right circumstances and Sunday night, that’s what happened. Branch bounced back nicely from his virtual no-show against the Giants last week with five catches for 58 yards and the Pats last offensive TD, on which he was left uncovered at the top of the formation, took a hitch from Brady, made one quick hesitation move as a Jets safety ran right by him and strolled into the end zone, imitating insufferable Jets fan Fireman Ed as a celebration (and while we’re at it, considering what a overenthusiastic, self-aggrandizing, over-hyped buffoon Fireman Ed is even though the Jets haven’t won a single game of consequence in over 40 years, can you imagine how much worse it’d be if they did win something?). And even Chad Ochocinco got in on the festivities, catching two passes for 65 yards in the first half, the second of which, a 53-yarder, was a perfectly executed route that froze multiple Jets DBs and left No. 85 so wide open, if he’d not caught it, there would have been grounds for him being the first player cut in the middle of a game in NFL history. Small steps, Chad. Keep it going.

Tight Ends: A
At this point, a legitimate case could probably be made for Gronk to be an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. He caught eight more passes for 113 more yards and two more TDs and now has 52 receptions, 709 yards and eight scores on the year. Everyone gushed over Gronk during and after the game; NBC’s Cris Collinsworth, Ryan, Brady, etc. And why not? He’s the best tight end in the NFL, able to dominate both as a pass catcher and a blocker. More than one of his catches on Sunday night required a lunge or a dive or at least a long reach but Gronk seems to be able to do all of those things and make them look easy. There were a couple of throws from Brady on which the two looked as if there may have been a slight bit of miscommunication. But for all the good that Gronk does, a couple of missteps (and a ridiculous celebration penalty for having the temerity to spike the ball after a score) here and there are allowable. Gronk was so good in this one, not only did Ryan put Revis on him at times in the second half, but he made his fellow tight end, Aaron Hernandez, practically invisible despite a respectable, 4-catch, 41-yard performance. Welker may be the most important Patriot on offense not named Brady. But damn is Gronk closing the gap.

Offensive Line: B
There was Logan Mankins’ weekly penalty, the second botched shotgun snap in two weeks by Dan Connolly and nothing whatsoever out of the running game. But Brady had all day to throw all night long and that’s thanks to the O-line. With the exception of the safety, a play on which Sebastian Vollmer was turned around by Jets linebacker Jamaal Westerman, no one got anywhere near Brady at any point in the game. He had so much time to throw, especially in the second half, on a couple of plays it was borderline funny. The Jets aren’t one of the better pass rushing teams in the league anyway; the strength of their defense is further back. But Brady’s uniform may not have even had to go in the laundry after this one. Particular kudos must go to right guard Brian Waters, a veteran free agent who came in well into training camp and has been pretty much flawless ever since (after the game, Brady said of Waters, “Brian’s a great example for all the young players of what it takes to be a true professional.”) and Matt Light, who played arguably his best game of the season. Again, it’s imperative the Pats figure out why they had so much trouble running the ball on Sunday night. But when the line is protecting Brady as well as it did in this game, such issues become slightly less pressing.

DEFENSE: B+
Defensive Line: A
Hail Andre Carter. Other than Wilfork, he’s been the most consistent, steady, excellent member of the Pats defense throughout the season and it all became as apparent as ever on Sunday night. Carter set a franchise record with 4.5 sacks and was positively monstrous in doing so. He was all over the Jets offensive line, dominating their star left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson with regularity and with ease. Carter was such a menace, not only did he ring up all those sacks, he hit Sanchez eight other times and registered four tackles for a loss. That’s eight. And four. Just an incredible performance by a free agent signing that’s actually worked out (between Carter and Waters, there may be a pattern of sorts emerging here). And Mark Anderson, finally freed to play more downs and in more situations than mop-up duty, got his due as well. He only had half a sack, but he was instrumental in a couple of Carter’s and managed to get in Sanchez’s face on a couple of other occasions as well, including the pick-6 he threw to Ninkovich that closed out the scoring. Vince Wilfork played nearly the whole game and although it cost some of the other middle guys some time, it was absolutely necessary. It should be noted that the Jets ran the ball well, rolling up 110 yards on 25 attempts. But Carter and Anderson were so tough and at times, so overwhelming, that for the purposes of this discussion, we can let that go. All season long, the cry has been for the defensive line to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks so as to ease the burden on the overmatched secondary and it’s been getting better over the past handful of games (minus the debacle in Pittsburgh). But Sunday night was the best it’s been yet by far. The D-line controlled the line of scrimmage, giving the linebackers chances to make plays and taking a truckload of pressure off the likes of Molden, Moore, Adams et al in the defensive backfield. Just the way it’s supposed to be.

Linebackers: B+
It’s been a while since Ninkovich has made a real impact but boy did he ever snap out of that on Sunday night. Ninkovich added five tackles and two passes defensed to his two picks and first career TD. It was a banner night for the next Mike Vrabel; he even got to share the postgame interview with Brady and if you had that one in the pool, I’d like to bring you with me to buy some Mega Millions tickets. Elsewhere, it was Tarpinian and White filling in for the injured Brandon Spikes and I’ll be damned if they didn’t both acquit themselves very nicely. White had five tackles in playing 50 defensive snaps while Tarpinian, playing in the base defense, had four. White played a big part in Ninkovich’s TD, leveling Jets tight end Dustin Keller at the line, which led Sanchez’s eyes and Ninkovich toward outlet receiver LaDanian Tomlinson and the rest is history. Both White and Tarpinian, no-name special teamers, certainly earned themselves some more reps with their respective performances. And if those reps again come at the expense of Gary Guyton (dressed but did not play a single down), that’s even better. As for Jerod Mayo, minus a few of his patented misreads, whiffs on attempted tackles and chasing guys who went to where he was supposed to be but wasn’t, he didn’t play all that badly. The way it’s been for him throughout this year, let’s call that a moral victory.

Defensive Backs: B
It took Patrick Chung not playing, Devin McCourty missing half the game and Moore (who was responsible for McCourty’s injury) playing not only his first game of the season and not only the first game of his life at safety, but playing every flipping defensive snap, for the Pats secondary to post its best game of the season. Sanchez did throw for over 300 yards but over 100 of those came after the Jets had fallen behind by three TDs and he also threw the two picks while looking thoroughly confused for long stretches. The Jets never fully took advantage of the massive soft spots in the middle of the Pats defense; After their first drive of the game, on which they blew right down the field only to miss a chippy field goal, they only got into a real rhythm throwing the ball once for the rest of the night when they managed an 11-play, 78-yard TD drive from late in the third quarter and into the fourth. Plaxico Burress scored that TD but other than that, he had only two other catches which considering the lack of size, strength and playmaking ability of nearly all of the Pats corners, is flabbergasting. Molden was in coverage on that score but he also broke up another throw to Burress and looked far more competent than two weeks ago in Pittsburgh. Kyle Arrington played every snap and was solid while James Ihedigbo had his best game of the year with seven tackles and excellent support both in covering tight ends and against the run (Ryan went out of his way to praise his former player afterward). And, perhaps most impressively, even Julian Edelman got in late at slot corner and threw a huge, textbook tackle on Tomlinson. Who knows how long the Pats can survive with these guys out there running around? It’s hard to say; there’s no way anyone could have predicted that this crew would achieve what it did on Sunday night. And even though Chung will likely be back for Monday night against the Chiefs, McCourty, who seems to have a dislocated shoulder, will probably miss some time. But at least now we know it’s possible. And we couldn’t say that a week ago.

Special Teams: B+
Still absolutely nothing to say about the kick return game but in every other area of special teams on Sunday night, the Pats shined. They bottled up the league’s leading return man, Joe McKnight, holding him over 12 yards below his season average on kick returns. They forced a turnover (a fumbled punt by McKnight) and recently signed Niko Koutouvides, picked up last week specifically to spark the special teams, recovered the loose ball. They got three field goals out of Stephen Gostkowski, including a 50-yarder. And they got yet another All-Pro-esque outing from our man Zoltan (four punts, 46.8 yards per). It will be great when all of these things happen and someone returns a kickoff or punt more than 12 yards. But for now, the improvements shown on Sunday night will do just fine.

Coaching: A
It could well be an A+. Belichick shut out all the noise from the previous two weeks, got 10 undrafted free agents ready to play, patched up his seriously damaged secondary and went on the road to blow out his arch-rival. There were no turnovers, no penalties and the safety was the only real mistake. And again, look at who was out there. Tarpinian and Moore are so anonymous, NBC just showed still photos of them when introducing the Pats defense instead of having them say their names and where they went to school like with every other player in the NFL. Add to that the fact that he so utterly and completely outcoached Ryan (who, by the way, looks worse and worse every week his supposedly vaunted defense gets nothing out of anyone not named Revis) for the second time this season, and the effort looks even more impressive. Now, suddenly, the Pats are in complete control of the AFC East and given their schedule, they should cruise to at least 11, probably 12 wins. Whether or not they can finally win a playoff game for the first time since 2007, especially if Sunday night’s cast of characters sticks around until then, remains to be seen. But that’s way down the road. Sunday night was just one game out of 16 and there’s seven more to go before the postseason. But man, was it a virtuoso game for Belichick and his staff. Easily their best of the season. And it couldn’t have come at a better time.

AFC East Roundup – Week 10

By Bruce Allen, Patriots Daily Staff

The division seemed to come into a little better focus last night, as the Patriots went into MetLife Stadium and silenced the Jets, 37-16. The win gives New England a season sweep of the Jets and moves them a full game ahead in the standings with the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker in their favor. What that means is that in reality, the Patriots have a two-game lead on the Jets.

New England Patriots (6-3, 3-1)

Things looked grim for New England coming into this one. They were coming off two bad losses and the decisions of Bill Belichick had been questioned incessantly, while at the same time, the Jets seemed to have found their stride after struggling earlier in the season. The Patriots defense looked shaky on the first Jets drive, and the offense squandered a couple of early opportunities for touchdown. When the second half came, New England seemed to hit their stride on both sides of the ball, and pulled away from the Jets. Suddenly, things are much brighter for the Patriots, who were decimated by injuries but showed a ton of of heart and grit in earning this win.

Next up – Monday Night Football against Scott Pioli’s Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs defense, led by old friend Romeo Crennel  may have some tricks up their sleeve for Brady and the Patriots. The Chiefs will be without QB Matt Cassel.

New York Jets (5-4, 2-2)

The Jets had no answers for Rob Gronkowski last night, as the Patriots tight end destroyed them all game. TheJetsBlog chronicles notes that the Patriots drafted Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to mitigate the value of players like Revis and Cromartie. They also note that the talk about Sanchez is starting up again, and they wonder if the Patriots provided a blueprint for beating a Rex Ryan defense. (Blueprints…awesome.) It’s tempting, but very dangerous to write off the Jets at this point. They’ll be back, and their schedule is almost as easy as New England’s down the stretch. Both teams could conceivably win out the rest of of the way, which just made last night’s game all the more important.

Next up – The Jets have a quick turnaround, heading out to Denver on Thursday night to take on Tim Tebow and the Broncos. This should be a win for the Jets, but the quick turnaround, high altitude and unorthodox style of Tim Tebow could throw things off.

Buffalo Bills (5-4, 1-1)

Are the Bills coming back to earth? They went down to Dallas yesterday afternoon, and got absolutely smoked, 44-7 by the Cowboys. On Buffalo Ramblings, they’re concerned that the Bills’ Passing Attack Has Been Solved. Trying to stay positive, they also point out that the Bills playoff hopes are still alive. There’s a good look at the AFC playoff picture in that post. What can the Bills do? Even though Fred Jackson has been a monster this year, do they need to play C.J. Spiller more?  Still, despite the last two discouraging the losses, the Bills are still just a game out of the division lead, and having played less divisional games, are potentially in a better position that the Jets to tie up the Patriots. If the Jets stumble in Denver, the Bills could leapfrog them in the standings.

Next up - The Bills have a chance to improve that divisional record this week as they take on the Dolphins in Miami.

Miami Dolphins (2-7, 0-2)

Break up the Dolphins! They won their second straight game by beating the Washington Redskins 20-9 at home. They’re playing their way right out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Phinsider notes that Dolphins victories aren’t exactly a well-received notion these days. On the plus side, they may have finally figured out how to use Reggie Bush, who once again was impressive for Miami.

Next up - Miami could be looking at a three game winning streak as they host the Bills this Sunday.

Around The League – Week 9

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

It’s Jets week and that couldn’t come at a worse time for the Patriots. Suddenly, going back to their dramatic, comeback win over San Diego in Week 7, the Jets are looking like everyone thought they would and not the disorganized, confused, undisciplined mess they appeared to be up til that point. They are legitimately on fire headed into Sunday night’s home game against the Pats and are catching the local 53 at a horrible time.

After winning their first two games (the first with a virtual miracle over Dallas), the Jets tailspun into a three-game slide that included a loss in Foxboro in Week 5 in which they didn’t even try to exploit the Pats woeful pass defense, instead fruitlessly trying to jump start their non-existent running game. The result was a 30-21 loss but after a relatively easy win over the Dolphins the following week, they had the come-from-behind victory over San Diego and now seem on their way. Last week, they went into Buffalo to take on the surprisingly good Bills and blew them out, 27-11, looking like the same AFC finalists they’ve been the past two seasons. In that game, the defense posted one of its finest efforts of the season, holding the previously high-powered Buffalo offense under 300 yards while forcing three turnovers in the process. Their running game is working (126 yards against the Bills, 162 at 5.2 yards a pop against the Chargers) and quarterback Mark Sanchez is playing like the caretaker coach Rex Ryan wants him to be, throwing seven TD passes against just two picks and posting passer ratings of at least 87.1 in his last four games.

Sanchez’s recent success bodes very poorly for the Pats, who with the exception of the first half of their loss to the Giants last week, are shredded every week by the opposing quarterback, whether it’s a Super Bowl champ like Ben Roethlisberger or a scrub like Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. And with the Jets defense rounding into it’s usual form at the same time the Pats offense seems to have stagnated (under 20 points per game in their last three after over 30 per game in their first five), it could be a long night for the Pats.

The Pats have not scored a point in the second half of either game they’ve played in the Meadowlands since Ryan took the Jets job prior to the 2009 season. For the first time over that period, such a scenario doesn’t seem that far-fetched.

This Week’s Five Best Teams

1. Green Bay: The Packers fell behind early in rainy San Diego last week. So what did they do? They scored the next 21 points and 28 of the next 38 to run away from the still skidding Chargers, before fighting off a valiant comeback attempt by their hosts. Aaron Rodgers, still the best QB on the planet, had a ho-hum, 21-of-26, 247-yard, four TD performance. Home games against the Vikings and Bucs the next two weeks practically guarantee the Pack will be 10-0 on Turkey Day when they visit Detroit.2. Baltimore: They probably should have lost to the Steelers on Sunday night. And they played like absolute dogshit the previous two weeks in losing to Jacksonville and escaping the Cardinals. But the Ravens game-winning drive in Pittsburgh, which also happened to be the most impressive thing Joe Flacco has ever done in his four-year pro career, was one of the defining moments of the season. On the road against your arch-rival, a division game, barely a minute left and 92 yards to go needing a TD not just a field goal? Great, great stuff.

3. San Francisco: The Niners continue to roll, moving to 7-1 with a road win over the pathetic Redskins. The reason they aren’t one spot higher on the list? Only two of their seven wins came against teams with winning records. This week’s home game against the streaking Giants will tell us a great deal about this team.

4. New York Giants: After breaking the Patriots hearts, Super Bowl XLII-style, the Giants had suddenly won three in a row and six of seven and formed a borderline chokehold on the NFC East (really, who’s going to challenge them? Dallas?). The only thing more impressive than Eli Manning being a legit MVP candidate is how well the G-men keep playing despite the rash of injuries that have plagued them since the first week of training camp. Against the Pats, top running back Ahmad Bradshaw, top receiver Hakeem Nicks and starting center David Baas al sat out but they won anyway, and in dramatic fashion to boot. Their next five games are at the 49ers, home for the Eagles, at New Orleans, home for Green Bay and at Dallas. If they come through that brutal run at 3-2 or better, they can coast into the playoffs.

5. (tie) Pittsburgh/ New Orleans: Don’t weep too hard for the Steelers. The Ravens loss was a setback and their chances of winning the AFC North are slim. But they led with one minute to play. They’d won four in a row prior and convincingly. And they’ve been there. This team is still as likely a Super Bowl representative as any in the AFC. As for the Saints, their roller coaster continued with a big, division win over the Bucs. Now they get another division rival, Atlanta, followed by the Giants and Detroit with a bye sandwiched in there too. It’s make or break time for the Saints.

This Week’s Five Worst Teams1. Indianapolis: The Colts are 0-9, their clueless GM Bill Polian is spitting fire at the local media for daring to suggest his hiring his unqualified son for a major personnel role has damaged the franchise (what nerve!!). And their Sunday night game against the Pats has been flexed into a 1 p.m. slot… three weeks early. It’s kind of fun to see the Colts humiliate themselves weekly, isn’t it?

2. St. Louis: The poor Rams. They finally got on track with a huge win over the Saints in Week 8 and had the winning field goal lined up last week at Arizona. Then, the kick was blocked, the game went to an extra period and they allowed just the second punt return for a TD in overtime in league history (and by the way, it was a 99-yarder). Just one of those years, I guess. It can get better this week against the equally lousy Browns.

3. Miami: All that hard work finally paid off for the Dolphins, who took advantage of a let down, emotionally exhausted Chiefs team and ran them off their own field, 31-3. Matt Moore (yes, Matt Moore) was the league’s Offensive Player of the week (17-of-23, 244 yards, three TDs) and Reggie Bush finally seems to be getting it (28 carries, 195 yards his past two games). And they can make it two in a row with a home game against the Redskins this week. Hope the fans didn’t have their hearts too set on Andrew Luck.

4. Arizona: Needing a late field goal block and an OT punt return just to beat the Rams at home doesn’t exactly breed a lot of faith in the Cardinals. But a win is a win, they looked great at Baltimore last week before falling apart late and backup QB John Skelton looks better than starter Kevin Kolb against St. Louis. Hey, I have to write something here.

5. Cleveland: It’s hard to believe the Browns could be worse without Eric Mangini than they were with him. But everything they’ve tried since bouncing their former coach has failed including the offense, which wasn’t even Mangini’s strong suit. If team Grand Poohbah Mike Holmgren jumps ship after this season already, don’t be surprised.

 

What’s Trendy
- Jay Cutler, Bears: After beating the Eagles on Monday night, Chicago has a three-game winning streak. And while the key has mostly been the improved play of the offensive line, it’s impossible to ignore how well Cutler has played at quarterback. In the Bears last five games (four wins), Cutler has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes, thrown six TDs against just two picks and has been sacked just three times during the three-game run.

- Julio Jones, Falcons: The Falcons traded a huge chunk of their 2011 draft to get into the top 10 and take Jones, the giant, super-speedy wide receiver from Alabama. After he caught 11 passes for 127 yards in a Week 4 win over Seattle, it looked like the right move. But then he caught just one pass against the Packers in a Week 5 loss and missed the next three weeks with an injury. But he exploded back onto the scene last week against the Clts, with three catches for 131 yards and two TDs, both of which were spectacular. The Falcons seem to be rounding into form and Jones is a big reason why.

- Darren Sproles, Saints: One of the biggest free agent acquisitions of the year is a 5’6, kick returner/third-down back. Sproles has 793 total yards and five TDs through the Saints first nine games and that’s while sharing backfield duties with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and first-round pick Mark Ingram. He had 42 yards on just four carries and 57 yards on five catches and a TD in last week’s win over Tampa and is the team’s leading rusher.

 

What’s Not
- The Raiders:4-2 and looking as good as they have in years through their first six games, the Raiders have lost their last two, both in blowouts, one at home to Tim Tebow and the Broncos. Trading for Carson Palmer to replace the injured Jason Campbell at QB has been disastrous so far, the defense gave up just short of 300 yards on the ground to Denver and now there’s been talk of dissension against first-year coach Hue Jackson. Will this season become just another in a long line of Raider disasters? Stay tuned.

- John Beck, Redskins: Beck, Washington coach Mike Shanahan’s hand-picked choice to play QB, has not won a single start in nine tries since coming into the league with the Dolphins in 2007, is currently presiding over a four-game losing streak, has two TDs against seven turnovers in his four starts this season and has led the ‘Skins to 44 total points in those four games. Now would be a perfect time to rip Shanahan, the biggest fraud in the NFL going on 12 years now, but we do that almost every week. So we’ll just point out in no uncertain terms what seems pretty obvious – Beck sucks.

- The Seahawks: Man, is it getting ugly for Seattle and Petesy Carroll. The Seahawks have lost three straight and are averaging nine points per game in having done so. This week, they have the Ravens and their defense. Chalk up another in the L column.

And finally…
Just one more quick note on the Pats in this week of hand-wringing before the Jets game hits us on Sunday night. So much has been made this week, last week and in the recent past of Bill Belichick’s poor to dismal record in acquiring personnel over the past five years and while that’s almost entirely justified on the defensive side of the ball, there have been plenty of great moves on the offensive side. Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer, Brian Waters, Danny Woodhead, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have all been signed, drafted or traded for in the past handful of years and while that doesn’t eliminate the Chad Jackson in the second round disaster of 2006, or any of the misses on defense (Terrence Wheatley, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, Duane Starks, Deltha O’Neal and Shawn Springs just to name six in the defensive backfield alone), the Pats would not still be the perennial contender they are without any of those names on offense passing through town. It’s been bad, it really has. But it hasn’t been a complete disaster.

Pats Pregame Points: Game Nine At Jets

By Chris Warner, Patriots Daily Staff

Playing two New York teams in a row is like slipping on one pile of dog dung and falling chest-first into another: every moment feels awful; there’s serious cleaning up afterwards; and for whatever reason, other people find it hilarious.

Two positive aspects arose from Sunday’s 24-20 loss to the Giants. One, it ended the silly home winning streak that didn’t include New England’s two straight playoff losses. Two, it has quelled expectations of the Patriots going far this season.

Oh, for the days when a mediocre defense could still get you to 14-2.

Some other points worth visiting as the Pats head to New Jersey to take on the Jets…

Rah, Rah, Sis-Boom-Blah: Anyone else feel like New England just wasn’t up for this game? Too many blank stares on the sideline, too much looking around waiting for Tom Brady to do something. If they have a similar attitude in the tri-state area, things could get ugly quickly.

Plus it’s worth pointing out –

Tom Turkey: Sure, nice comeback at the end there, but we’re concerned about the missed receivers and questionable decision-making in this game. If he has a repeat performance against the Jets, your Sunday evening just got much, much longer.

What Can Brown Do For You? Oh, you mean Sergio Brown? He can commit an egregious pass interference penalty to set up the Giants on the one-yard line. That’s all.

We Can’t Grin And Barrett: Now that safety Josh Barrett has been placed on injured reserve, Brown and new guy Sterling Moore should get more playing time. The Patriots’ safeties have gotten on the field only slightly more often than Peyton Manning’s new cleats.

Which is totally awesome. In opposite world.

Albert Heinousworth: Thanks to Albert Haynesworth for continuing his streak of seasons failing to live up to his potential. Um, Albert, don’t let the door hit your butt on the way out, because you might break the door.

Bump, Set, Spikes: Looks like Brandon Spikes might miss this game. Exactly what New England needs – less intensity in their linebacking corps.

Wow. Even we’re getting tired of the level of sarcasm this week. But will we let it stop us? (Insert sardonic answer here.)

At The End Of His Grope: Hey, Julian Edelman? If you’re going to get very little yardage on punt returns, you might as well make sure you don’t fumble. Just saying.

Deep Thoughts: It sure seems like the Patriots need a fast guy who can run downfield three or four times a game, if only to elicit a possible pass interference penalty. Will Taylor Price ever be healthy? Why hasn’t he seen the field more?

We’d rather have Brady hurling the ball to, say, a streaking Matthew Slater three times a game than failing to connect with a certain veteran receiver five times.

Tempting Fade: Speaking of deep threats, welcome back to Tiquan Underwood, who not only can run the fade, he can sport it as a haircut.

Look, we have no idea what’s going to happen with this team. Might as well enjoy some of the fun, quirky stuff as it comes along.

Recalling An Offensive Line: The Aristocrats! No, seriously, what’s up with the O-line these days? Brady’s getting knocked around like a ping-pong ball in a closet full of cats. Too many individual battles being lost up front, which bodes poorly for a tilt with the Jets’ improved D.

Going Back To The Welker: When receiver Wes Welker went down with an apparent shoulder injury in the first half, we all figured that was the end of the season. He’s an amazing player who has been the heart of the team since 2007. Next week, the Jets will do everything they can to make him a non-factor.

Imagine if a certain numerically-named receiver actually took advantage of such a situation? That would be cool.

Email Chris Warner at [email protected]

10 Critical Mistakes the New England Patriots Have Made in 2011

For the New England Patriots the 2010-2011 season ended with enormous disappointment.  The Patriots finished the regular season with a league-best 14-2 record and guaranteed home field throughout the AFC playoffs.  They had an impressive record of 6-1 against the 2011 playoff field.  The season ended, however, with an embarrassing loss to the rival New York Jets. Afterwards, Patriots owner Bob Kraft even questioned that game plan.  It was strange offseason with the lockout and an abbreviated training camp.  Despite last year’s failures the Patriots were still the consensus pick across the NFL and in Vegas to join Green Bay in Indianapolis.

Now at 5-3 the Patriots are at a crossroad as they hit the half way point of their season.  A win over the New York Jets this week and they are back in the driver’s seat for the division.  A loss and they will be on the outside looking in.   The Patriots should not be in this position, and contrary to what Ron Borges wrote Monday, this dynasty or “elite era” doesn’t need to end now.

However, barring a miraculous turnaround to the season it looks like it will be another failed bite at the apple for Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.  Things were going wrong awhile before Eli Manning’s winning touchdown pass on Sunday.  You have to go back to the end of last season to find the root cause of the Patriots journey to mediocrity.

1)      2011-12 Coaching Staff – A team that once boasted a staff of Charlie Weis, Josh McDaniels, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini and Rob Ryan is now left with Matt Patricia, Bill O’Brien, Pepper Johnson and Josh Boyer.  Johnson is the only one of the four with any strong links to the old regime having been trained under Crennel.  Peculiar that Belichick who once surrounded himself with experienced veteran coaches continues to chose this route.  Just look around the league and see what some experienced defensive coordinators like Wade Phillips (Houston), Mike Zimmer (Cincinnati) and Rex Ryan (Jets, albeit as a head coach) in relatively short time.  While the Patriots and Belichick are going on year four of a rebuilding process.

2)      2011 Draft – There were promising, impact defensive players available all throughout the first two rounds of the draft.  The Patriots ended up with an offensive tackle, a late first round pick in the 2012 draft, an oft-injured cornerback and two running backs that aren’t being used.

3)      2011 Free Agency – Because of the lockout, free agency didn’t start till the summer.  And because 2010 was an “uncapped” year there were an inordinate amount of Free Agents available on the market.  Peter King of SI, listed his top 50 Free Agents prior to the mad rush.

There were some impressive players on the defensive side of the ball, an area where the Patriots at the moment aren’t just bad, they are desperate.  One or two could have made a gigantic difference.  Just look at the numbers some of these free agents are putting up this year.

  • Cullen Jenkins DT Eagles (5 Sacks)
  • Jason Babin DE Eagles (9 sacks)
  • Antonio Cromartie CB Jets (3 INT, 1 FF)
  • Johnathan Joseph CB Texans (3 INT, FF, 10 PD)
  • Dashon Goldson S, 49’ers (2 INT, 1FF, 39 tackles)
  • Carlos  Rogers CB 49’ers, (3 INT, TD, 9 PD)
  • Dawan Landry S Jaguars (53 tackles INT, FF)
  • Matt Roth DE, Jaguars 3 Sacks)

The Patriots chose to shop at the bargain basement once again.  Brian Waters has worked out as a starting guard on offense. Defensive ends, Andre Carter and Mark Anderson have had their moments, but neither has shown to be consistent threats to the quarterback. The Patriots more than any team knew the landscape coming out of free agency, and with the draft already done they didn’t plug holes where they needed to, and they began the season almost $10 million under the cap. It’s OK to question if Robert Kraft is willing to go the extra dollar for a championship, especially, when you see the amount of undrafted and late round picks starting for this team.

4)      Two bad trades – Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco.   They have been busts through the first 8 games. Both players’ careers were already on downward trends which is why the Patriots were able to acquire them without giving up much in trade. Ocho’s $6 million price tag makes this gamble that much more painful and puzzling.

5)      Construction of the 53 man roster – Belichick always says he puts out the guys he thinks are going to give him the best chance to win. Watching this defense it’s hard to believe that cutting both starting safeties (Meriweather and Sanders), a slot corner (Leigh Bodden) as well as adding Shaun Ellis were the right moves. That is especially so when you see the likes of Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo and Phillip Adams roaming the secondary.

6)      The Danny Woodhead Experiment – I love Danny Woodhead, but unfortunately Bill O’Brien does too, and that’s becoming a bad thing. Woodhead is great in a defined role, which includes short passes out of the backfield and draw plays from the shot-gun.  But lining it up every week and running him off tackle is an exercise in futility.  Against the Giants it cost them on a key 3rd and 1 and later it cost them a chance to run the game clock down to 1:15 after Woodhead got tossed out-of-bounds like a rag doll.  That inexcusable decision by O’Brien with BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the sideline was as big a contributing factor to that loss as any other mistake the Patriots made against the Giants.  The Patriots have other running backs that run better between the tackles, but O’Brien still hasn’t figured that out yet.  He’s still content with the Woodhead off tackle for a yard.  I’m focusing here on Danny Woodhead, but in contrast to last year, the play calling in general has been unimaginative.

7)      The  Bend-but-don’t-Break Defense – At this point, why not start taking chances?  The Patriots have stuck with an aggressive attacking style all season.  They had success against the Giants for most of the game by applying pressure.  When they backed off, Manning shredded them. Death by a thousand cuts is messy and it seems at times to disrupt the rhythm of this offense as they wait on the sidelines.

8)      Sitting tight at the deadline – The NFL Trade deadline is pretty quiet, WR Brandon Lloyd was perhaps the biggest name moved.  He was the NFL Yardage leader in receiving last year and played under the Josh McDaniels system. Lloyd was a free agent  at the end of the year and the Patriots did not want to waste a 5th round pick on him, which is ironic, since they have wasted a lot of 2nd and 3rd round picks the last four years.

9)      Play the Kids – You drafted Jermaine Cunningham, Stevan Ridley, Taylor Price and Shane Vereen high because you expected they could be impact players.  They have all had injury problems, but when healthy they are still low on the depth chart.  At this point isn’t it time to take a chance?

10)   Too much pressure on Brady – Age is going to be a factor with Tom Brady in the very near future.  Is it starting this year?  It’s possible, but it also could be that the Patriots have structured team in a way that puts winning and losing all on Brady.  He’s had four mediocre to bad games and the Patriots have lost three of them.  He’s not the problem, but with no help on defense or special teams he’s becoming part of it.

Some would have you believe that the Patriots’ struggles this season didn’t happen overnight.  I’ve  made that point myself, but on the flip side, you can look at things under the microscope and realize that in the NFL you can also turn it around overnight.  I see an AFC field with flaws up and down, a few tweaks here and there and the Patriots could easily be the team to beat this season.  In January the Patriots might stick it to all the dissenters –  I hope I am one of them.

In 2001, they went from 6-5 to the Super Bowl.  That team did it with heart, determination, coaching and some pretty good talent.

This year they will have to overcome shortcomings in many of those same areas, shortcomings that are the result of bad decisions up and down the organization.

Making The Grades – Giants at Patriots

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

Who, exactly, are the New England Patriots? Are they an elite team with championship aspirations? Are they one of a truckload of very NFL teams that contain a serious flaw? Are they the confident, mentally tough outfit Tom Brady has referred to more than once in the aftermath of two recent losses? Or are they mediocre, an also-ran?

Sorry to get wicked existential on you. But that’s where the head’s at a day removed from the Pats 24-20 loss to the Giants on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Whereas last week’s loss at Pittsburgh elicited more piss and vinegar, this most recent setback inspires questions, and lots of em. For the first time all season, the Pats defense carried them, picked up a strangely sedated offense and looked poised to win a game for them. Then, with just over seven minutes to play and a 13-10 lead, that very same D reverted to its former self, allowing two 80-plus yard TD drives, the second of which took an astonishing 81 seconds and ended the game. On top of that, for the third week in a row, the formerly intergalactic offense struggled for long stretches, stagnating for the entire length of the first half, and was sabotaged more than once by none other than Brady himself. And once again, personnel was an issue, with the Pats going down in flames with no fewer than five undrafted free agents, two of whom are special teams players lucky to see one or two defensive snaps per game, on the field and in key roles. What were they doing out there? Just add that one to the list of questions already recorded. And if you have any answers, please speak up. So with that, let’s get to this week’s report card.

OFFENSE: C-
Quarterbacks: C-

Aside from the fact that it’s difficult to remember the last time Brady, normally a pinpoint marksman, was so inaccurate throwing the ball. He looked like Mark Sanchez out there at times. Passes were underthrown, overthrown and behind receivers all game long. There was the occasional dropped ball but for the most part, particularly in the first half, Brady was in nowheresville. He tossed two more interceptions, giving him 10 on the season, or two and half times as many as he had all of last year. He lost a fumble. He looked rattled and skittish in the face of the Giants pass rush, most of which consisted of four guys beating six. He was off, plain and simple. The Pats got a break in the later stages of the third quarter and throughout the fourth when he seemed to find himself or a hole in the Giants defense, or both, and led four scoring drives in the game’s final 20 minutes, including what should have been yet another game-winner with 1:36 remaining on the clock on a strike over the middle to Rob Gronkowski. He finished the day 28-of-49 for 342 yards and two TDs, solid numbers to be sure. But there were also those three turnovers. And all the missed throws. And the failure to spread the ball around (Gronk and Wes Welker combined to be targeted for 25 of Brady’s 49 throws). And the confusion. Brady figured it out on Sunday, he just did it a little too late. But given how minuscule the Pats margin for error is on a weekly basis, one and half quarters of typical Tom Brady just isn’t enough. He has as much to work on this week in preparation for Sunday night’s shitstorm with the Jets as anyone.

Running Backs: C

It’s not necessarily this group’s fault. They were OK. And early on, it looked like they might be the key to the Pats offense, with the Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis scampering for 18 yards on their first play from scrimmage. But for whatever reason, after that run they jumped ship, gaining just 40 yards on 13 attempts as a team for the remainder of the first half. The Giants came in allowing 130 yards per game on the ground, making the decision to go to the passing game as the focal point so rapidly somewhat curious to say the least. Overall, the Pats picked up 106 yards on 24 carries, a healthy 4.4 YPA. But why wasn’t there more? Yep, another question. BJGE picked up 53 yards overall on only 12 carries while Danny Woodhead, playing more again with Kevin Faulk back on the sideline, produced probably his most effective game of the season with 60 total yards including a couple of big catch-and-runs in the later stages. Only Stevan Ridley, who had 16 carries for 42 yards in his last three games after putting up 16 carries for 139 yards and a TD in his first two, left something to be desired. Well, and Bill Belichick, who along with his offensive staff failed to look a gift horse in the mouth and attack the Giants biggest weakness.

Wide Receivers: C+

Say this for Wes Welker – he’s the Pats MVP by such a wide margin, it’s not close. Welker rang up nine more catches for 136 more yards while continuing to take a massive beating on practically all of them. Late in the first half he was piledriven to the turf and his and his teammates reactions seemed to reflect he’d broken his collarbone or dislocated his shoulder or maybe even broken some ribs. But when FOX came back from commercial, there he was sprinting out into his customary slot position as if nothing had even happened. If there’s a tougher, more resilient player on this team than Welker, someone please let me know. The only problem is, after Welker there’s not much there at this position. Deion Branch is equally capable of putting up huge numbers or not even showing up at this point; Sunday represented an example of the latter as he finished with two measly catches for 21 measly yards. But at least he did that. Because surprise! Chad Ochocinco did nothing, again! Can you believe it? And this week, the Pats actually worked their asses off to get him involved, at times even appearing to force the action his way, letting him play 18 whole snaps and calling his number for Brady five whole times. Naturally, he caught none of those five passes and on more than a couple of them, looked like he and Brady just met in the locker room five minutes before the game. He was positive afterward, telling the Boston Herald that “I just gotta keep working with Tommy, that’s about it. Everything is there. We’re missing it by this much.” Given the fact that Ochocinco has now been here over three months working with Brady every day and not only still has just nine catches on the entire season but hasn’t had a single one of them in five games, hearing him say something like that doesn’t exactly warm the heart. He is, was and shall remain the biggest free agent bust of the Bill Belichick era and that includes both Adalius Thomas and Duane Starks (not to mention Albert Haynesworth, but we’ll get to him later). Man…

Tight Ends: B

There’s one other player in Brady’s Circle of Trust besides Welker and that’s Gronk. Eight more catches, 101 more yards, another TD (the shoulda-been game-winner). Gronk now has at least seven catches in four of eight games this year (with six in another) and even though he had a couple of brutal drops on Sunday (one on his and Brady’s bread and butter seam route, not able to hold onto one of Brady’s best throws of the day), he still posted yet another big game and is invaluable to this offense (74 of 78 offensive snaps). Elsewhere, Aaron Hernandez still looks slightly hobbled by a knee injury suffered in Week 2 against the Chargers, but still managed to burn his man for the first of the Pats two fourth quarter TDs and finished the day with four catches for 35 yards. Given how thin the Pats are at receiver, imagine where they’d be without this duo.

Offensive Line: D

It’s getting slightly alarming now. As happened so famously in Super Bowl XLII, the Pats O-line was pushed around and sent to its collective heels by a four-man Giants rush at several points in the game. There were some more diverse looks shown by the Giants D and to the Pats credit, they used Nate Solder at tight end on nearly a third of their offensive snaps in an attempt to counter. Brady was only sacked twice and hit just three other times. But he was under pressure and in a hurry a great deal, and part of the reason for his accuracy problems likely have to do with being forced to throw early a lot. Logan Mankins had his customary false start penalty and Matt Light looked slow-ish on the left edge, but other than a very high shotgun snap by Dan Connolly that forced him to the bench for a series (Ryan Wendell replaced him), there weren’t a lot of glaring, individual problems. This is a collective grade. When you are getting beaten with any regularity by less men, it’s not the scheme, it’s the one-on-one matchups that need to be looked at. And all five of the Pats regular O-linemen lost those matchups enough times to warrant that big, fat, ugly D. If Brady doesn’t have time, he and the entire offense can’t get into the rhythm it needs to be successful. That was too often the case on Sunday.

DEFENSE: C
Defensive Line: B-

One of the better games this group has played all year but when you consider that statement in relation to the previous seven games, that’s not saying much. Still, there’s some room for encouragement here. There were no sacks but Giants QB Eli Manning was hit eight times, seven of them by a D-lineman. Andre Carter continues to be the only member of this unit who even seems close to a capable pass rusher, getting in Manning’s face three times. And Vince Wilfork, who has proven himself very adept at situations other than stopping the run this year and lined up a couple of pops on Manning himself. It also shouldn’t unnoticed that Brandon Deaderick saw his most extensive action in ages and played a very solid game. But it still wasn’t near enough. The Giants only managed 3.8 yards per rushing attempt but that was without their lead back Ahmad Bradshaw. Brandon Jacobs picked up 72 yards on 18 carries and scored the first TD of the game on a 10-yard run notable for the fact that no one even breathed on him. That was because Haynesworth, who would be a bust on the Ochocinco level if the Pats hadn’t cut his salary so dramatically and based most of his pay on playing time incentives, was buried by Giants guard David Diehl on the play. If you are ever looking for a textbook way to run block with little to no resistance, watch the replay (or look at a still photo or two) of this run. Haynesworth may as well have just laid down. Perhaps that’s why he didn’t play another snap in the game even though nearly 25 minutes of time remained on the clock. Or maybe it’s just because he’s fat and out of shape and doesn’t give a shit. I’m leaning toward the latter. Haynesworth has shown two, maybe three flashes of the player he’s capable of being in eight games. That’s a lousy percentage, which suits Haynesworth well, him being a lousy player and all. Just play Kyle Love and Deaderick and Ron Brace and let Haynesworth ride the bike, pick fights with his position coach on the sideline and hang out at the post-game buffet table. He’d probably be just as effective as he is when he’s playing nine of 72 defensive snaps.

Linebackers: C

Poor Brandon Spikes. He’s really been coming into his own the past few weeks and on Sunday, he was the best player on the Pats defense until he left midway through the third quarter with a sprained MCL. He’ll likely miss time and that’s too bad because the D responds to him in ways they never, ever respond to their supposed leader Jerod Mayo. When Spikes left, the Giants had scored three points in two quarters plus five minutes of playing time. After he left, with Gary Guyton and special teamer Tracy White left to fill in, the Giants scored 21 points in about a quarter and a half. You do the math. It couldn’t have had anything to do with Mayo, could it have? He played every down. He had zero solo tackles. He went what seemed like his 3,764th straight game without even sniffing doing anything impactful. And he’s the leader, the glue guy, the playmaker of this defense. Maybe that’s why its ranked dead last in the entire league. Props to Rob Ninkovich, who has been hard to fins the past few weeks but blew up on Sunday with seven tackles, a pass breakup and a big hit on Manning. As for White, it’s a real tough one to swallow. When Manning hit tight end Jake Ballard on a missile over the middle for 30 yards on the Giants game-winning drive, a perfect strike that could only have been caught on a superhumanly athletic play (which is exactly what Ballard made), White was all over him. The coverage couldn’t have been better. It was just a perfect throw and a spectacular catch, no more, no less. Alll you can do is tip your cap to Manning and Ballard. Then, on the winning TD pass to Ballard, White played run from the spot Spikes would normally be in, a must given the ball was on the 1 and Manning executed a perfect play fake, which in turn left White a step behind Ballard when he caught the ball in the end zone. It should not have come to the point that White was on the field for such crucial moments; the Pats depth at linebacker is a huge issue, especially considering how limited Guyton is. But to pin this one on White isn’t fair. He was put in an extremely tough spot and at least he didn’t humiliate himself, as a number of his teammates already have at one point or another this season.

Defensive Backs: C-

It could have been a great, great day for Kyle Arrington. He picked off a Manning pass in the end zone in the third quarter in particularly athletic fashion. But he was also burned hideously on the Giants second to last drive, first picking up a brutal, 35-yard pass interference penalty for getting torched by Giants receiver Mario Manningham then running him over without even trying to turn his head toward the ball, then allowing Manningham to singe him again a few plays later in catching a TD pass (on which Arrington again stood still while Manningham ran right by him and made no effort to make a play on the ball as it sailed over his head and into Manningham’s arms). Arrington is a nice player, an overachiever who has picked off six passes this season. It’s not his fault that every cornerback Belichick has drafted or acquired other than Devin McCourty over the past five years can’t play. Arrington would be a fourth or fifth corner on a decent defense, he wouldn’t be on the roster of a truly great one. On this one, he starts and plays pretty much every down. McCourty was fine and seems to be coming out of his shell at least a little bit (he even had a pass breakup on Sunday!!!). And then there’s Patrick Chung. On the big play to Ballard late in the game, even though he had a great angle and all kinds of room to lay a flying shoulder on Ballard and potentially separate the airborne tight end from the ball, he instead chose to try for the interception and came up literally empty, whiffing completely. He didn’t touch the ball or Ballard. It was an awful play by Chung and showed that even though he seems to be one of the only guys in this secondary that may be even pretty good, he is still prone to the kind of thoughtless, boneheaded mistakes that are unacceptable anywhere, especially on a defense with exactly zero margin for error. Oh yeah and also, Chung took himself out of the game on the sixth play of the Giants eight-play, final drive, which meant Sergio Brown had to come in. Brown then leveled Giants receiver Victor Cruz at the goal line even though the pass in that vicinity was overthrown by at least 10 yards. The Giants got the ball at the 1 and two plays later, won the game. As bad as Brown’s mistake was, and it was bad, he shouldn’t be out there at that point, injuries or not. And he probably knows it, too. In the fourth quarter, Manning was 8-of-13 for 92 yards and two TDs and the Pats committed two pass interference penalties for 55 yards. I need a drink.

Special Teams: F

Here’s another question for the list: Why is Julian Edelman on this team? He had five punt returns for 17 yards on Sunday (that’s 3.4 yards per return) and fumbled another that came hot on the heels of the Pats holding the Giants to a three-and-out deep in their own territory. Edelman has three catches for 27 yards and 14 punt returns for 122 yards (8.7 yards per return) this season. Oh yeah, he also has an arrest for indecent assault and battery. Enough is enough, please. Elsewhere, Stephen Gostkowski missed a 27-yard field goal. That’s 27 yards. Yep, 27. And, for the umpteenth week in a row, the Pats averaged just over 20 yards per kick return, never even approaching taking one past their own 25. Sorry, Zoltan. Your 45-yard average on five punts, while quite impressive, can’t crack the mountain of sucktitude put forth by the rest of the special teams on Sunday.

Coaching: C-

Scheme-wise, it was all looking good for a while on defense. The Giants were missing two of their top offensive players (Bradshaw and No. 1 receiver Hakeem Nicks) but Belichick cut down on the deep zones, allowed for a little bit more man coverage and even dialed up a few blitzes that we haven’t seen out of this outfit in a long time (one particular look that had Mark Anderson dropping into coverage and breaking up a pass was particularly interesting). But late in the game, everything instantly went back in time to when stops, so plentiful for the first three and half quarters on Sunday, were more or less out of the question. The Giants ran TD drives of eight plays for 85 yards and eight plays for 80 yards in the final moments of the game. At this point, you have to blame the players and because of that, the spotlight moves away from Belichick the coach and shines once again on Belichick the GM. Guys like Arrington, White and Brown are on the field at the most important time because of injuries, sure. But the depth would be far more capable if there hadn’t been so so many blunders in choosing players over the last handful of years, whether it was through the draft or free agency. And offensively, there’s little rhyme or reason as to why the pass/run ratio was over 2-to-1, especially given the Giants issues defending the run. There are some major problems with the Patriots right now. As if having to repair the defense almost entirely with barely more than spare parts at his disposal in the middle of a season wasn’t enough for Belichick, now he has to figure out what’s wrong with his offense, which has averaged 18.5 points over its last three games, as well as why something awful happens on special teams at least once a week. If he’s finished, as some seem to think he may be, the Pats won’t find their way out of this. If he’s not, they will. It’s not the slam dunk it may have seemed as recently as a couple weeks ago. But it’s still pretty safe to bet on the latter.

AFC East Roundup – Week Nine

By Bruce Allen, Patriots Daily Staff

Been a bit negligent in updating things in the AFC East, but after yesterday, it’s worth taking a look at where things stand in the division. With three teams sitting at 5-3, it’s time to study up on the Tie-Breaking Procedures.

New England Patriots (5-3, 2-1 in AFC East)

The Patriots lost their second straight game yesterday, and the only positive we can take from it was that it came against an NFC opponent, which hurts a little less in the tie-breaker scenarios. The Patriots are technically still in first place in the AFC East. The Patriots, Jets and Bills have played each other once, and it all balances out. The Patriots lost to the Bills, but beat the Jets. The Jets beat the Bills but lost the Patriots. The Bills beat the Patriots but lost to the Jets. The Patriots and Jets are both 2-1 in the division, having each also beaten Miami. The Bills are just 1-1, having not yet played Miami. Since the second tie-breaker is by winning percentage within the division, the Jets and Patriots edge out the Bills. The third tie-breaker is common games, and the Patriots and Jets are each 4-1 in games played against common opponents (Dallas, San Diego, Miami, Oakland and Buffalo), so we move to the fourth tie-breaker, which is winning percentage in the conference. The Patriots are 4-2, while the Jets are 4-3. So the Patriots are in first place in the AFC East.

Next game: At Jets, Sunday night on NBC. The winner of this game will be in first place in the AFC East.

New York Jets (5-3, 2-1)

After floundering out of the gate at 2-3, the Jets have now won three straight games, including yesterday’s impressive 27-11 win in Buffalo. The Jets defense easily handled the Bills high-flying offense, and moved past the Bills in the standings. The Jets are starting to regain their swagger – not that a Rex Ryan-led team would ever love swagger – and have to be supremely confident of their chances this weekend against a Patriots team that is clearly trending down at this point.

Next game: Home against New England. Jets are playing for first place, and have to love their position.

Buffalo Bills (5-3. 1-1)

After becoming one of the early success stories of the 2011 season, the Bills hit a roadblock yesterday facing the Jets. The Bills were over-matched, both physically and skill-wise on the field yesterday. Ryan Fitzpatrick had trouble finding his receivers yesterday, and only managed 191 passing yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

Next game: At Dallas. This will be another stiff test for the Bills, with the Cowboys able to generate pressure on Fitzpatrick. The NFC opponent also makes it impossible for the Bills to retake the divisional lead, even with a win.

Miami Dolphins (1-7, 0-2)

The Dolphins finally got a win yesterday, but did they knock themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes? It was an impressive win on the road over Kansas City for the Dolphins yesterday, as Reggie Bush had a second straight strong game (did I cut him too early from my fantasy team?).

Next game: Home against the Redskins. Could it be two in a row for Miami?

Around The League – Week 8

By Jeremy Gottlieb, Patriots Daily Staff

You’ve gotta hand it to the Kansas City Chiefs. There may not be a more resilient team in the entire NFL.

After losing their first two games by a combined 89-10 then falling to 0-3 after a last minute defeat to the Chargers, the Chiefs are unbeaten, running off four straight wins the most recent being a pulse-pounding, overtime thriller against San Diego. They may have lost their best defensive back (Eric Berry) and two of their best offensive players (running back Jamaal Charles, tight end Tony Moeaki) for the season but they’re still making plenty of plays on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City ranks in the bottom third of the league in every major offensive and defensive category except rushing yards per game yet over the course of the winning streak, the Chiefs are averaging just over 25 points per game while allowing just over 15. Quarterback Matt Cassel has six TD passes over that stretch while completing over 60 percent of his passes. And in the absence of Charles, a committee of backs has emerged. Fourth-year man Jackie Battle, who never had more than 20 rushing attempts in a season prior to this one, has 256 yards in his last three games and is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt.

On defense, former Pats coordinator Romeo Crennel has righted the ship and is getting big time play out of fourth-year corner Brandon Flowers, who is just one INT shy of his career-high, and sixth-year defensive end Tamba Hali, who has six sacks and forced Chargers all-pro left tackle Marcus McNeill into six, count ‘em, six penalties while still picking up two sacks on Monday night. The Chiefs ranked 11th in total defense in winning the AFC West last year. Take away their first two games of this year and they’re playing at roughly the same pace.

Chiefs head coach Todd Haley has a reputation as a hothead, an angry, confrontational sort who doesn’t seem to be able to get along with anyone (including, at times, Cassel and GM Scott Pioli) if you believe what you read. But he sure can coach. At 0-3 and with all the personnel losses they’d already suffered, KC easily could have packed it in. But instead, they are now in great position to win their second straight division title. Haley won’t win Coach of the Year even if his team keeps up this pace; that award will likely unanimously go to 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. But he’ll still be a top candidate.

The Chiefs play Miami and Denver at home in the next two weeks before embarking on a brutal stretch that includes games at the Pats and Jets and home dates against the Packers and Steelers, only the two Super Bowl participants from last season. But they already have an advantage in the division at 2-1 and only have to play one more AFC West foe away from Arrowhead Stadium (and it’s the Broncos). In a season full of amazing, out-of-the-blue stories, the Chiefs most definitely are writing their own chapter.

This Week’s Five Best Teams:
1. Green Bay: The Packers stay settled in the top spot at 7-0 and coming off their bye, they get to travel to play the unraveling Chargers who are on a short week. With Minnesota and Tampa on tap in the two weeks following their matchup with San Diego, it’s a safe bet that the Pack will be 10-0 on Turkey Day when they take on Detroit.

2. Pittsburgh: It seems like eons ago that the Steelers were 1-2 and looking washed up. They absolutely laid waste to the Patriots last week; the 25-17 final score may as well have been 125-17. And they couldn’t be hotter for this week’s rematch against their arch-rivals, the Ravens, who humiliated them in Week 1.

3. San Francisco: It was only the Cleveland Browns and the game was at home but the Niners didn’t miss a beat coming off their bye last week. Now 6-1, they face a bit of a test this week when they travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins, not because the Redskins are any good but because traveling east for a 1 p.m. start against a team they’re expected to beat can derail a lot of teams. We’ll know a lot more about San Fran after this Sunday.

4. New England: Seems a little silly to still have the Pats this high up after the debacle in Pittsburgh last week. But they still have Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and plenty of other top-flight talents. And they never, ever lose two in a row.

5. Baltimore/New Orleans: Two severely flawed teams round out this list. The Saints followed up their destruction of the Colts with a 31-21 loss to the previously winless Rams in a game that wasn’t that close. And the Ravens needed to come back from three TDs down to beat the pathetic Cardinals at home. Neither one of these outfits look remotely playoff ready right now; the Saints can’t get it together on defense, the Ravens on offense. Luckily for them, they both have two more months to figure it out.

This Week’s Five Worst Teams:
1. Indianapolis: The Colts don’t seem to have quit – they’re sort of playing hard and still getting blown out every week. After presumably losing to the Falcons this week, Indy may have its best chance to avoid a winless campaign in Week 10 when the Jaguars come to town. Otherwise, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

2. Miami: For the second straight week, the Dolphins snatched a loss out the jaws of what appeared to be a sure victory, blowing a 17-10 fourth quarter lead to the Giants. In its last two games, Miami has been outscored 28-9 in the fourth quarter and overtime. Ouch.

3. Arizona: It just gets worse for the Cards, who were poised to pull one of the upsets of the year at Baltimore last week, only to see a 24-3 lead go up in smoke in the fourth quarter. Now, starting QB Kevin Kolb is out this week for what may have been a winnable game against the Rams. This team was in the Super Bowl three years ago and a division winner the following season. I can’t believe it either.

4. Denver: We’ll get to Tim Tebow momentarily. First, let’s just point out that the Broncos are so irrelevant, so dull and so hopeless, if it weren’t for the raging, ongoing debate on whether Tebow can play in the NFL or not, no one would breathe a word about them.

5. St. Louis: The Rams broke the schneid with that win over the Saints and that was without Sam Bradford. A victory against Arizona on Sunday and suddenly, it’s a winning streak. After that, they get Cleveland then Seattle and Arizona again at home. Has a team that started 0-6 ever made the playoffs?

What’s Trendy
- LeSean McCoy, Eagles: Philly coach Andy Reid remembered that when he balances his offense and doesn’t ignore his star running backs (a phenomenon that comes three or four times a year), he usually wins. Such was the case on Sunday night when he gave McCoy the ball 30 times and he responded with 185 yards and two TDs. McCoy may be even more important to the Eagles chances than Michael Vick, a factoid surely lost on the perennially clueless Reid.

- Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Throughout the second nightmare Vikings season in a row, Peterson has remained an absolute monster. He totaled 162 yards and two scores in last week’s win over Carolina and is on pace for 1,600 rushing yards and 18 TDs for a moribund team. Imagine if Minnesota was actually any good.

- The Texans: Houston lost stud wideout Andre Johnson in a Week 4 win over Pittsburgh then immediately went into the tank, dropping its next two. But the Texans have since won two in a row, still without Johnson, and have very winnable games in their next three weeks (Cleveland, at Tampa, at Jacksonville). Even more impressive, they’re top 6 in every major defensive category on the board and running back Arian Foster is 100 percent back from his early season hamstring woes. It’s going to be really hard for coach Gary Kubiak to find a way to keep his team from the playoffs this year.

What’s Not
- Tim Tebow, Broncos: Watching him lead the Broncos to a seemingly impossible win down the stretch at Miami a couple weeks ago was pretty amazing. But all it really did was gloss over the fact that Tebow cannot physically, mechanically, technically play quarterback at this level, as evidenced by the abomination that was Denver’s 45-10 home loss to the Lions. This isn’t Florida, where he can be lined up in the shotgun with the option to run or just dump the ball off on every snap. He can’t throw or see the field or read defenses. Maybe he’ll learn someday, but that isn’t going to happen in the midst of a season. The Broncos did the right thing by giving Tebow the job; they aren’t going anywhere this year regardless of whether or not he played so why not see what they have? And thus, the answer to that question is, not much.

- Philip Rivers, Chargers: Rivers continues to regress. He threw for almost 400 yards and nearly led a spirited comeback on Monday night at Kansas City, but he also turned the ball over three more times including one of the worst fumbles you’ll ever see, a botched snap on a play that was probably going to be a kneel down prior to a game-winning field goal attempt (the fact that this brainfart came 17 seconds after ESPN’s Jon Gruden breathlessly described him as a “superstar” made it even more glaring). The Chargers seem destined for a housecleaning after this year. Will it help Rivers find his way?

- Brandon Jacobs, Giants: The Giants perpetually pissed off running back celebrated his team’s comeback win last week (a win which put them in sole possession of first place in the NFC East) by saying that he had, “nothing positive to say,” and that at least he had a “fast-ass car being delivered this week.” Jacobs has been such an asshole for so long, it’s pretty peculiar that the Giants have kept him around. It will be interesting to see whether or not his miserable attitude will cost him playing time this week against the Pats if starter Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot injury keeps him sidelined.

And finally…
The Tennessee Titans fell back to earth a bit after their 3-1 start, but bounced back nicely with a 29-14 win over the Colts last week and are now 4-3 and in second place in the AFC South. But they look pretty middle of the road despite their good start and the biggest reason why has to be starting running back Chris Johnson. Johnson held out of training camp, setting himself back even further given the lack of off-season activities due to the lockout. He did get the massive contract he was seeking, inking a deal barely a week before the start of the regular season worth $13.4 million annually. But whether he lost a step not working out in the off-season and training camp, whether he feels less motivated now that he has his money or whatever, he is not remotely the same player he’s been. Johnson is averaging less that three yards per carry, has just one TD and has totaled more than 53 yards on the ground once in the Titans seven games. He even lost reps to career backup Javon Ringer against Indy and Ringer outrushed him 60-34 on the same amount of carries (14) while also racking up 42 yards on five catches. Johnson ran for 2,000 yards two years ago and averaged over 1,500 per season in his first three years in the league, undoubtedly the reason he held out for so much money. But he’s clearly not the same player he once was. The Titans probably aren’t ready to do much damage yet despite looking good in this season’s first two months. If Johnson doesn’t find himself soon, the chances of that happening will plummet even further.

First Impressions – The New York Giants

By Greg Doyle, Patriots Daily Staff

The New York Giants.

The very thought of them on the same field as the Patriots brings me back to the 2007-2008 season. It was so close for the Patriots. So close to 19-0 and probably being considered the greatest team of all-time. Even had they won by a mere 14-10, the consensus historically probably would have included that moniker. And yet a dropped interception, a missed sack, a fallen on fumble that wasn’t, a bizarre, circus catch and the whole scenario changes. Now instead of the greatest NFL team ever assembled, the greatest single season ever, those few plays turn the Patriots into worthy of being mocked by idiots who can’t see that was an incredible, hell of a team. You absolutely have to hand it to the Giants. They played, on that one day, one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen a team come up with. But the fact is, they lose 9 of 10 matchups to that year’s Patriots squad. Not on that day. They didn’t when it counted. That was the 1 in 10 and they did it when needed. No doubt about it, they deserved it.

But the memories of how close the Patriots came to immortality come back with this matchup. Oh well. On to the present day. Lets take a look at this matchup and key players and stories:

Eli Manning, #10, Quarterback: If you look back on the Super Bowl versus the Patriots, Manning came very close on several occasions to going down in NFL lore as a goat in the game. Instead, he ended up as MVP. It took an amazing sequence of events for that to happen. An Asante Samuel dropped interception. Missed sacks by Adalius Thomas, Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green. Rodney Harrison unable to knock a ball down and, instead, David Tyree making the most improbable catch in Super Bowl history on top of his helmet. Another missed interception by Brandon Meriweather. And more. Finally there was the TD pass to Plaxico Burress and Manning went from zero to hero just like that. From loser to victor. And the Patriots perfect season ruined.

Moving forward to present times, that game was supposed to propel Manning into the elite among quarterbacks. But despite his claims to the contrary, it hasn’t happened. He has been up and down since the Super Bowl and the Giants have, like the Patriots, not won a playoff game in the years since that game. But this year, Manning is having probably statistically his best season. His completion percentage, yard per attempt and TD/INT ratio are all at their highest career levels. Given the Patriots struggles in the secondary this year, that can’t be good new for the locals.

Victor Cruz, #80, Wide Receiver: Cruz attended the University of Massachusetts, so this is something of a homecoming for him. He ranks 4th all-time on the school’s all-time receiving lists and made all Colonial Athletic Association Honors both his Junior and Senior years. Despite that, Cruz went undrafted when he came out last year. He had a huge preseason in 2010, leading the NFL in preaseason yardage. That lead to him surprisingly making the Giants final roster out of camp, but a early hamstring injury put him out for the year. This season, with injuries striking the Giants’ receiving crew, Cruz is getting his opportunity and producing. Thru 7 games, Cruz has 28 catches for 497 yards and has become a big weapon for the Giants. A big receiver at 6’0″ 204, Cruz figures to be difficult for Patriots corners to handle Sunday.

Justin Tuck, #91, Defensive End: I gotta admit, I never saw it coming. I never thought that Tuck and the Giants could disrupt the Patriots record-setting offense that season. I knew Tuck was a pretty good pass rusher and the Giants had others. But never did I think they could totally throw off the rhythm and timing of that prolific offense. I never thought they could win the game. There was actually some pre-game chatter Tuck was doing special things and I remember dismissing it. Wouldn’t happen this game, I thought. I was wrong. Tuck had two sacks and forced a fumble versus Tom Brady. The Giants d-lined pressured and pounded him all game. And in the end, that alone was probably the single biggest factor in pulling off the monumental upset of the undefeated Patriots. It wasn’t long after that Tuck signed a large contract extension with the Giants and he has been very good, if not great, since. This year, he’s been very limited by groin and neck injuries. He’s only played in 3 games. But he is practicing this week and it looks like he’ll play versus the Patriots. If he’s anywhere near healthy, it would be wise for the Patriots to pay a lot more attention to him this time around.

Greg Jones, #53, Linebacker: Jones is a rookie linebacker who inherited a starting role in the middle of the Giants defense almost by attrition. Injury after injury decimated the Giants crew early this season and now its Jones’ job. A 6th round choice out of Michigan State, Jones has played competently. Still, the lack of solid play at linebacker is a big reason the Giants have struggled versus the run. They’re 28th in the NFL defending the run and give up a whopping 4.7 per carry. This would seem to be an area the Patriots would want to exploit.

Injuries: It seems very likely the Giants will be without starting running back Ahmad Bradshaw as he has a cracked bone in his foot. In addition, Hakeem Nicks hasn’t practiced yet this week due to a hamstring injury. Other significant injuries include center David Bass, defensive end Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul with a neck injury. All could miss the game. It does appear Tuck is progressing, however, as he is practicing without limitation. For the Patriots, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Shaun Ellis, Kevin Faulk, Sebastian Vollmer and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are among the more significant Patriots nursing injuries. This time of year, its always a matter of attrition as every team is going to be limited or without some guys. Its usually the deepest teams that come thru it the best.

Pre-Game Chatter: There have been many questions put to both teams about the Super Bowl rematch from four years ago. For the most part, both teams have preferred to focus on this year’s game and teams. That isn’t to say there hasn’t been a little bit of trash talk. Eli Manning spent the week telling reporters he feels the Giants can operate very efficiently on offense versus the Patriots defense. He also spent time proclaiming himself an elite Quarterback in Tom Brady’s class. Brandon Jacobs, a Giants running back, told the media he was on the verge of scoring a lot of touchdowns. Victor Cruz felt after watching the Patriots defense on tape he saw a lot of holes and was excited about playing their defense.

On the Patriots side, they had a week with the distraction of Wide Receiver Julian Edelman being arrested. They’ve largely strayed away from talking about that. And is their way, they’ve largely strayed away from talking about, well, anything. Mostly the focus has been on themselves and how they’re coming off a very bad game.

Giants Fans:

Giants fans feel pretty good, but are cautious, about this game. Here is a sampling of thoughts from their official website forum:

barran21 sees the Giants with their own defensive problems:

People keep talking about there defense being horrible, but with our run defense being garbage, I think it will open the passing game with a lot of play action from Brady, it might be Eli Manning sitting on the sidelines watching Brady eat the clock away Sunday…

BK07071 feels the Giants will be just fine without Ahmad Bradshaw and will catch the Patriots off-guard:

After hearing the news about Bradshaw being out, I bet the Patriot”s fans are jumping for joy thinking that it’s a big blow to our game. Little do they know what’s waiting for them in the wings with Jacobs, Ware, and Scott. They won’t know know what hit them!!!

GIANTSACK is feeling confident Sunday is a money making opportunity given the Patriots are favored by 9

Im putting some dough on giants.. Why not.. Going to break the bank on this

Prediction: Well, yours truly got the first one wrong last week. At least it was called to be a close game and the “Patriots own the Steelers” hype wasn’t bought into. This week, the Patriots will rebound. Both teams are fairly injured but it’ll be the Patriots run game that surprises and takes pressure off the defense. They’ll control play throughout and win 30-16.

Pats Pregame Points: Game Eight vs. Giants

By Chris Warner, Patriots Daily Staff

You know what? We’re going against our usual frame of mind here to say that New England’s 25-17 loss doesn’t really worry us. Pittsburgh played better from beginning to end, yet somehow only led by six in the last minute. Yes, yes, a thousand times yes – the defense has to improve; still, if these teams meet in the playoffs, the Patriots win.

Not that this game didn’t bring up other concerns heading into next week’s tilt vs. the Giants.

Two Weeks Are Too Weak: Mmm … New England had a bye week before traveling to Pittsburgh and got smacked around. The last time they had a bye week, they hosted the Jets in the playoffs and (insert last part of previous sentence here).

Considering the success of recent wild card teams in the playoffs and the failure of the Pats to win after byes, maybe the whole top-seeded thing isn’t the goal here. Maybe a week off isn’t what a playoff team really needs in these days of NFL parity.

Of course, we don’t have to deal with 300-pound maniacs trying to hurt us every week, so it’s hard to say for sure.

Blue Prints = Blue Prince: Nothing makes our prince of football, Tom Brady, more upset than losing, and it appears that the blueprint for beating the Pats has been well-established. Rush the QB with four or fewer, double-team Welker, man up on the tight ends. Simple, really.

The question is, who besides the Steelers and Cowboys can execute that game plan? How many teams have the personnel? We’ll find out for the rest of this season and, we hope, far into the playoffs.

Chad Miss-Him-If-You-Blink-o: Okay, for the final time (at this point, we’re running out of puns), we’ll discuss the Chad Ochocinco failed experiment. He has been practicing with the team since late July – that’s three full months, people! – and has yet to pick up the offense. He has nine catches for 136 yards and has gone two games without a reception.

For comparison, we recall Jabar Gaffney, the standard for veterans who come to Foxboro and contribute to this offense. Gaffney was signed in October 2006. Three months later, he was tearing up the Jets in a playoff win with eight receptions for 104 yards.

No preseason games. No Tom Brady whispering in his ear after every play. Gaffney ended up leading all Patriots receivers in the post-season (a dubious distinction in an anemic 2006, but still). This matters because…

Price Check: The Patriots have a fourth-round receiver waiting in the wings. Maybe Taylor Price will also have a hard time figuring out New England’s offense, as he came from Ohio University, where they apparently draw diagrams in the mud with sticks. But isn’t Price worth a try? Shouldn’t he get as much of a chance to fail as Ochocinco?

At the very least, you have a big, fast, young receiver looking to contribute. It just seems like he’s worth a shot. If only some other young pass-catcher could help out …

With A Grain Of Assault: Seriously, Julian Edelman? Now you get arrested?

Let’s just change the subject.

Play Missed He For Me: It seems that the Patriots learned their tackling skills while playing Ultimate Frisbee. Clean it up, you nitwits!

Bottom Of The Third: More horrible third-down defense for the Pats, disappointing due to a recent upward trend and the aforementioned two weeks to prep for Pitt. We have to think that defensive back Leigh Bodden’s dismissal threw New England’s defense out of sync.

Well, maybe rookie cornerback Ras-I Dowling could contribute, IF ONLY HE DIDN’T WIND UP ON INJURED RESERVE WITH AN INJURY HISTORY GOING BACK TO HIGH SCHOOL.

So much for the 33rd overall pick of the draft. Cripes.

Not Elite, Just Eli: Listen, in our book, “elite” means top ten percent. That means that out of 32 teams, only three QBs get elite consideration – Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady. Done.

Now, some call Eli Manning a very good quarterback. Sounds fine; we have no argument with that. Just don’t try to bring down a pair of Hall of Fame quarterbacks by comparing them with someone who’s merely very good.

And, judging by this year’s defense, nothing New England does will detract from Eli’s apparent greatness. The discussion continues …

Email Chris Warner at [email protected]