September 26, 2016

Patriots/Cowboys Preview From Accuscore and Playoff Odds

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 77% of simulations over the Dallas Cowboys. Tom Brady is averaging 326 passing yards and 2.9 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 55 rushing yards and a 44% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 23% of simulations where Dallas Cowboys wins, Tony Romo averages 2.28 TD passes vs 0.71 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.79 TDs to 1.33 interceptions. Felix Jones averages 58 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs when Dallas Cowboys wins and 36 yards and 0.17 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 62% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 86% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -7 — Over/Under line is 55

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

DALLAS COWBOYS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 1-2-1 All Games 4-1-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 1-0-1 Home Games 2-0-0 No Edge
When Underdog 1-0-0 When Favored 4-1-0 Dallas Cowboys
Non-Division Opp 1-1-1 Non-Division Opp 2-0-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

DALLAS COWBOYS ATS RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 7-9-0 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots
Road Games 4-4-0 Home Games 5-4-0 New England Patriots
When Underdog 6-2-0 When Favored 8-6-0 Dallas Cowboys
Non-Division Opp 4-6-0 Non-Division Opp 7-3-0 New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record 5-4-0 Opp Under .500 3-3-0 Dallas Cowboys

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

DALLAS COWBOYS O-U-P RECORD NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 4-1-0 OVER
On Road 2-0-0 At Home 2-0-0 OVER
All Totals Last Season 13-3-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER
On Road Last Season 5-3-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER

Updated Playoff Odds

AFC

The Bills continue to circle the wagons.  Buffalo beat the so-called “dream team” to continue its own dream season moving to 4-1.  The Bills gained over 10 percentage points in the AccuScore projections and now, make the playoffs more often than not: 53.2 percent of the time.  They remain tied with New England in the real standings.  However, the Patriots are the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 94.1 percent.  The AFC East team that should start to worry is New York.  The Jets had another significant drop in our projections, losing 7.3 percentage points this week.  Miami, though, is in good shape for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Oakland won one for Al Davis and continues to be a viable contender in the AFC West.  The Raiders win the division in 25.9 percent of simulations.  The Chargers remain the favorite in the division. At 83.6 percent, the Chargers are a likely playoff team.  Kansas City actually won its second game this week, but the computers don’t believe in the Chiefs, as their playoff odds remain at just three percent.  The wins are really just worsening their draft positioning.  Denver got a crowd boost by playing Tim Tebow, but the playoffs are a fantasy for this season.

The AFC North is the only division with three teams with three wins, and four teams with two wins.  Pittsburgh gained a bit of ground on Baltimore by getting a big win over Tennessee.  The Ravens, however, were off on their bye week.  Still, the Steelers are the second choice in the North by a slim margin, winning the division 46 percent of the time.  The Ravens win the division 49.5 percent of the time.  The Bengals surprisingly have three wins, but they are long shots at the postseason at 15.4 percent.  At the bottom, Cleveland is just 5.2 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Houston fell 5.7 percentage points after an odd loss to the Raiders at home.  Luckily for the Texans, the AFC South is a weak division and they remain the favorites.  They win the division 66.4 percent of the time.  Tennessee is about half as likely for the playoffs winning the division 30.6 percent of the time.  Jacksonville and Indianapolis are already just playing out the string at a combined 1-9, with just a 3.1 percent combined probability for the playoffs. Peyton Manning for MVP?

AFC WEEK 5 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 5 WK 6 % DIFF WIN DIV
BUFFALO BILLS 43.0% 53.2% 10.1% 18.2%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 38.7% 43.4% 4.7% 25.9%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 82.1% 86.6% 4.5% 46.0%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 82.6% 83.6% 1.0% 72.4%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 14.5% 15.4% 1.0% 3.3%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2.7% 3.0% 0.3% 1.4%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 93.9% 94.1% 0.2% 77.1%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 1.2%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2.2% 1.4% -0.7% 1.3%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2.6% 1.7% -0.8% 1.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 87.2% 85.8% -1.4% 49.5%
DENVER BRONCOS 2.2% 0.8% -1.4% 0.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 39.5% 35.2% -4.3% 30.6%
HOUSTON TEXANS 74.6% 68.9% -5.7% 66.4%
NEW YORK JETS 28.8% 21.5% -7.3% 4.7%

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