September 30, 2016

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics – Pats at Broncos

by Scott Benson, Patriots Daily Staff
October 8, 2009

And now, for some shallow analysis of the Pats coming visit to Denver, let’s see how the New England’s numbers stack up against the surprising Broncos.

Combined Record of Opponents

Pats: 9-6 (BUF, NYJ, ATL, BAL)

Broncos: 6-10 (CIN, CLE, OAK, DAL)

Lies, damned lies – Pats win! Next.

Run

Pats Offense: 17th, 102.2 YPG, 3.7 YPC

Broncos Defense: 5th, 77.2 YPG, 3.2 YPC

Broncos Offense: 4th, 148 YPG, 4.7 YPC

Pats Defense: 11th, 95.2 YPG, 4.5 YPC

Lies, damned lies – ‘4th’ and ‘5th’ sounds a lot better than ‘11th’ and ‘17th’, but then again, Denver has already played two of the worst teams in the NFL. Credit to the Broncos, though; they didn’t lose either time.

Pass

Pats Offense: 5th, 273.8 YPG, 6.5 YPA

Broncos Defense: 3rd, 162.5 YPG, 5.7 YPA

Broncos Offense: 18th, 217.0 YPG, 7.7 YPA

Pats Defense: 7th, 192.2 YPG, 6.9 YPA

Lies, damned lies – I’m thinking Tom Brady presents a pass defense with a few more challenges than, say, JaMarcus Russell. I’m also thinking the Pats pass defense – last week a pleasing blend of madcap blitzing and tight coverage from the secondary in big spots – will force Kyle Orton to complete one hell of a lot of passes to score a touchdown on any given drive.

Kick

Pats Kickoff: 4th, 70.8 AVG (5 touchbacks)

Pats Kick Coverage: 29th, 27.4 AVG

Broncos Kick Return: 30th, 19.6 AVG

Broncos Kickoff: 3rd, 70.9 AVG (9 touchbacks)

Broncos Kick Coverage: 14th, 22.6 AVG

Pats Kick Return: 16th, 23.0 AVG

Broncos Punt: 17th (Net), 37.8 AVG

Broncos Punt Coverage: 9.5 AVG (10 returns)

Pats Punt Return: 21st, 6.8 AVG

Pats Punt: 31st (Net), 31.3 AVG

Pats Punt Coverage: 10.0 AVG (3 returns)

Broncos Punt Return: 18th, 7.8 AVG

Lies, damned lies – I guess the thing that strikes me here is the disparity between Stephen Gostkowski’s kickoffs (average kick is in the end zone) and the average return by the Patriots opponents. Might as well kick it to the 30 and get it over with.

Scoring

Pats Offense: 14th, 87 PTS, 21.8 PPG

Broncos Defense: 1st, 26 PTS, 6.5 PPG

Broncos Offense: 19th, 79 PTS, 19.8 PPG

Pats Defense: 10th, 71 PTS, 17.8 PPG

Pats 3rd Down Offense: 6th, 46 PCT

Broncos 3rd Down Defense: 2nd, 26 PCT

Broncos 3rd Down Offense: 18th, 37 PCT

Pats 3rd Down Defense: 23rd, 41 PCT

Lies, damned lies – It feels like a defensive game, don’t you think?

E-mail Scott Benson at [email protected]

Comments

  1. I’m with you that there are so many softies in the NFL today that 4 games in is too early to establish any accurate gauge of a team.

    Pats by double digits and McDaniel knows it.

  2. I feel just the opposite. Denver is good. And what scares me the most is—right, Kyle Orton. So far he hasn’t been as accurate as he can be. That could be because of his finger being injured on his throwing hand. But any week now he’s going to have a breakout game. And if he does this week then we lose.

    • Chris Warner says:

      Bobd, last week Orton completed 69 percent of his passes and is now averaging 59 percent for 2009. His career average is 56 percent.

  3. the Pats rushing D numbers are surprisingly good considering they’re playing nickel and dime for 50% of the defensive snaps

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