by Tyler Carter
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A week after this columnist suggested they were on pace for their worst statistical season since 2000, the Patriots responded by recording their most decisive win of the season against AFC West-leading Denver, an organization that has historically given them fits.

Although it was certainly satisfying to watch, such a butt-kicking made it difficult to identify a turning point.  Was it the return of the hoodie?  The Pat’s wearing their home blues for the first time this season?  The author’s first-ever trip to Gillette (and all-out effort to make a 12^th man out of the country club fans in Section 214)?

The boys over at Cold, Hard Football Facts are fond of their ‘Quality Stats‘, which are so named for their having a direct correlation to winning.  Among the Quality Stats is the ‘Big Play Index‘, which ranks the teams according to Big Play differential (gained subtracting allowed).  Examples of big plays include turnovers (fumble recoveries and interceptions), long run (>25 yards) and pass (>40 yards) plays, etc.

After their first five games of 2008, the Patriots ranked a paltry 27^th in the index.  On Monday night alone, the Patriots logged as many Big Plays (eight) as they had all season:

-Two interceptions
-Three fumble recoveries
-Two Sammy Morris runs over 25 yards
-One Wes Welker punt return over 40 yards.

And these Big Plays weren’t just enjoyable to watch; the Patriots scored 34 of their 41 points off of drives resulting from or including a Big Play.  They were the difference in this ball game, and largely resulted from an opportunistic defense (five turnovers) and a terrific ground attach (largest output in 15 years).  For this week’s Turning Point, we’ll break down a play from each unit.

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by Chris Warner
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Before last night, Bill Belichick had only beaten Denver twice in his coaching career. That number increased by 50 percent after New England’s 41-7 dismantling of a flailing Broncos squad. The game saw the return of high-scoring football and opportunistic defense to Foxboro, as well as injuries to high-profile players on both sides.

How was the visitors’ performance? So bad that Merriam-Webster has officially categorized the term “Denver defense” as an oxymoron.  On the night, New England’s quarterback, the oft-maligned-for-not-being-Tom-Brady Matt Cassel, completed 75 percent of his passes (18 for 24) for 185 yards and three touchdowns. As for the running game, the Patriots gained 257 yards, averaging 6.7 per play.

I mean, seriously, the Broncos should change their mascot to the Confidence Builders.

The play that seemed to put Denver away happened with the home team leading 13-0 with 1:32 left in the first half. The Patriots went for it on fourth down (having succeeded at it once before), knowing that, if they failed, they would surrender possession near midfield with a chance to score and regain some momentum. Sammy Morris kept the proverbial pendulum from swinging that way, bouncing outside of fullback Heath Evans’ block and picking up 29 yards to the Broncos’ 13. On the next play, Cassel made one of the best-looking passes of his short career, stepping up under pressure and firing the ball high to Randy Moss for a touchdown and a 20-0 halftime lead.

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by Tyler Carter
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We’re about to enter Week 7 of the NFL.  The trade deadline has passed, players on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list start to return, so by this point you generally have a good idea of what your team will look like going forward.

And New England fans, unless this group of guys turn things around, 2008 will be worst statistical season since Belichick took over in 2000.

First, a few numbers.  This table (all statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com) compares the scoring offenses, scoring defenses and point differentials (and their associated league-wide rankings) along with how the Patriots finished for the first eight years of Bill Belichick’s tenure.

The scoring averages themselves are raw numbers that don’t mean a whole lot by themselves.  By contrast, the league rankings and point differentials are relative statistics that indicate how the Patriots stacked up against their opponents.  Some things jump out at you:

The Patriots have only thrice ranked outside the top 10 in scoring defense (2000, 2002, and 2005)

For anyone requiring a refresher of the pre-2000 Pete Carroll/Bobby Grier botchjob, I highly recommend both Chris Price’s ‘The Blueprint‘ and Michael Holley’s ‘Patriot Reign‘.

Coming off their worst-to-first championship season, the 2002 Patriots faced a much tougher schedule and fielded a slow, aging defensive roster (Bobby Hamilton and Anthony Pleasant on the defensive line, O-T-I-S, Terrell Buckley and Victor Green in the secondary).

In 2005, New England’s defense dealt with turnover in both the coaching ranks (RAC leaving for Cleveland elevated Mangina to Defensive Coordinator) as well as the roster (Ty Law’s departure, Ted Johnson’s retirement, the failed Monty Beisel/Chad Brown experiment) as well as injuries (Bruschi’s stroke, Seymour).

Despite these defensive setbacks, however, in 2002 and 2005 the Patriots boasted top 10 scoring offenses which helped propel them to 1^st place AFC East finishes.

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