On The Clock: These Are A Few Of My Favorite Things

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The Saturday morning sun is peaking up over the hills of Central Maine, revealing a flawless blue sky, which today can only mean one thing: I’m staying inside all day to watch TV!

The NFL Draft is finally here, an oasis in the middle of a long off-season for 24-7 football fans. For Pats partisans, it’s a chance to move forward with hope after weeks of often-bitter reflection and regret. 

I know it’s the prevailing wisdom of casual fans to dismiss draft weekend as overwrought and overhyped, but today is a day to proudly let your geek flag fly, my brothers and sisters. And with that, I humbly offer a few of my favorite NFL Draft things.

COVERAGE

The Draft on the NFL Network - I love the NFL, so I love its network. I think. Frankly, it seems to be killing NFL Films, which isn’t good for anybody, and the whole shortwave game broadcast thing has been less than stellar. Actually, the programming kind of stinks most of the time too. Oh, let’s face it, the damn thing is irredeemable, except……for its draft coverage. The best thing about the NFL Network’s draft coverage is that its not ESPN. The fact that at least a few of us can watch the draft in peace justifies the entire enterprise. And we might even see some selections made, while on ESPN, Andrea Kramer interviews a roundtable of current players in ill-fitting dress shirts before kicking it over to Boomer for some standup. Have I mentioned how much I hate ESPN? I hate them. No, I really do. Which is the biggest reason, along with adept anchor Rich Eisen and analyst Mike Mayock, that I like the NFL Network. Call your local cable provider, dammit.

NFL.com - I’ve told the story a hundred times; I first started following the draft via Gil Santos on-the-half-hour-cut-ins on WBZ radio. Often, I hadn’t even heard of the Pats picks until Gil intoned their names. So imagine my continuing amazement at how much information is available us today, and that’s no better typified by the nfl.com draft website. Especially the draft tracker feature, which allows fans to read extensive profiles on each player as well as see a short video package for most. I mean, when I can watch Jacob Hester’s highlight reel at the drop of a mouse, you know we’ve really evolved as a society. This stuff is…..oh, how do I put this?…….awesome. Added feature: in no way connected to ESPN.

Reiss’s Pieces - If anything is happening with the Patriots today, especially behind the scenes, this is the first place you’ll learn about it. And you’ll learn about it in the straightforward, earnest manner of a guy that loves football just as much as we do. Novel concept, huh? Unfortunately, yes. And in not wholly unrelated news, no member of the Patriots working media has ever enjoyed more trust and respect from his readers. If checking Reiss’s Pieces is not part of your daily routine, then you’re probably not a Patriots fan. Mike will deliver the goods again this weekend. Keep him busy with your clicks.

Pro Football Talk - This is a love-hate thing for me, as I think Mike Florio is only slightly less crazy than Mike Greenberg, the Jets fan masquerading as an ESPN “personality.” And there’s times when Florio deserves a slap for the rapt conjecture he passes off as rumor. See his Friday night Matt Walsh entry as an example. He probably had been drinking, but that’s no excuse. The fact is, though, when it comes to league news of any type, you usually see it here first, and this weekend will be no exception. As long as you believe only about an eighth of what he posts, you should be fine.

Patriots Daily - If you’re looking for ill-informed, knee-jerk analysis of the non-Florio variety this weekend, this is the place. Hey, if we link our own page here, what happens? Do we pass through a portal in the universe? Time travel, maybe? Good. First thing I’m going to do is make sure Robert Kraft hires Bill Belichick the minute Parcells leaves for the Jets. Anyway, we’ll be around with periodic updates all weekend, putting the monkey-typewriter theory to the test.

PD ROUNDTABLE

The boys have gathered at the ol’ PDHQ in anticipation of today’s events, so let’s hear their thoughts. First, our own College Scout Greg Doyle, who offers his own Pats mock draft:

Here is my stab at a Patriots mock draft now that the day is here. I’ll assume no trades, since its hard enough as it is to try to pick this even knowing the picks they’ll have.

Round 1(7)-Keith Rivers, LB, USC-Just a solid player with versatility to play inside or out. Didn’t really play in a Patriots-type system, but it should be easier for a linebacker with his skills to convert than others. Good speed to get to the corners. Has been a defensive leader for the Trojans on a team loaded with talent and has even excelled on special teams, showing his commitment to winning. Thought to be of good character, tough and smart. Sounds like a perfect Patriot to me.

Round 2 (63)-DaJuan Morgan, S, North Carolina State-This could be a real steal. Somewhat under the radar due to the fact he only started one year at NC State (coming out after his junior year). Has a great size and speed combination and one of the hardest hitting safeties in college football. Good in coverage as well. Very hard working guy reportedly who loves football. Has played both safety spots. Also great on special teams with some blocked kicks. With Rodney Harrison getting near the end, this would be a great pick.

Round 3 (69)-Cliff Avril, LB, Purdue-Perfect size/speed guy to play outside in a 3-4. May be able to swing to inside linebacker as well. Good pass rusher and productive player.

Round 3 (94)-Jonathan Goff, LB, Vanderbilt-Strictly an inside linebacker with the size and strength to take on interior linemen. Stout run defender and excellent 2 down player who’d give the Patriots great depth. From Boston.

Round 4 (129)-Craig Stevens, TE, California-Good blocking tight end with decent speed and hands. With Ben Watson getting closer to contract time and David Thomas injury-prone, a young tight end will almost certainly be taken in this draft. Good work ethic is reported out of Stevens and was a team captain remarkably his last two years. Wasn’t used that much in passing game, but faster than you’d think.

Round 5 (164)-Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU-Good zone corner with tons of experience at a top level of college football. A little thin and not overly fast, but smart and with good instincts. Perfect for a zone scheme like the Patriots. Has returned punts.

Round 6 (197)-Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego-Very athletic quarterback with great tools. Played at a small school, needs a lot of work. But the talent is there and the Patriots worked him out recently. With Matt Cassel a free agent at the end of the year, another young QB needs to be developed.

Round 7 (238)-Andre Callender, RB, Boston College-Good combo running back at BC who caught 70 passes as a senior and ran for nearly 1,000 yards. Surprised scouts when he ran a 4.41/40 at BC’s pro day. Has the pass catching skills the Patriots will like and can return kickoffs as well.

Travis Graham, another PD favorite, has been thinking about the best direction for the Pats this weekend:

In my opinion, there are two needs that the Pats have to fill early in this year’s draft: A pass rushing specialist and a cornerback. I know many Pats fans feel that youth at the ILB position is a need (which it is), but I don’t think it’s worth the risk of a high draft pick. Not many ILB prospects in this draft have the ideal size of 250-270lbs to play 3-4 in the NFL. If teams want to draft a player with that size, they are going to have to pick a smaller lineman and transition him to ILB, which is a risky proposition due to the amount of pass coverage ILBs are responsible for in the NFL. I feel the best way to approach the first round of the draft is minimizing risk. No busts allowed.

So, that brings us to a pass rusher and cornerback. Everyone can agree that the Pats are thin at CB since losing Samuel. The free agent signings have been nice, but let’s face it, on paper they have a lot of JAGs at CB. Should the Pats address the position at pick #7 and be done with it? I don’t think so.

Recently, I’ve been subscribing to former New York Giants general manager George Young’s “Planet Theory”. The theory states,

“There is a finite number of athletic, 300-pound people walking around on planet Earth, and if you have a chance to grab one of those rare human beings in the draft, you’d better take advantage of the opportunity.”

To me, the key word is athletic. There are 300lbers available in the second round, but the quick ones that know how to use proper technique in the trenches are scoffed up early. Therefore, I don’t believe that a CB is worth an early first round pick, especially in the Patriots system where they aren’t asked to make plays- just prevent big ones.

This leads into the Pats need for a pass rusher. If you just watched the Pats first twelve games of the 2007 season, you’d probably buy into the “best DL in the league” mantra that was being thrown around last year. Things changed as the season progressed. The pressure that the DL applied to opposing QBs was reminiscent of the efforts that Henry Thomas and Chad Eaton used to put together in 2000 (one Misssissippi…two…). This is where the Pats need an athletic playmaker, and it just so happens that they have an open roster spot from cutting Colvin. An NFL 3-4 OLB pass rusher is much easier to project from college than a 3-4 ILB. They’re usually DEs in college that are athletic enough to occasionally drop into coverage.

In this year’s draft, there are a few players that would fill this hole for the Pats (ranked by yours truly):

Vernon Gholston
Chris Long
Derrick Harvey
Quentin Groves
Cliff Avril

There is a good chance that Gholston and Long will be gone by the 7th pick, and I don’t think it would be worth trading up for them due to the higher salaries and the cost of moving up (especially when the Jets are involved). Harvey should be available at number 7. It might be a little early for him, but if Pats are unable to trade down, I would have no problem taking him at 7. I think of Harvey as a poor man’s Gholston, he doesn’t have the measurables as Vernon, but he was just as productive and many experts believe he has a fuller repertoire of pass rushing moves.

Ideally, a trade down to the middle of the first round would be ideal to pick up Harvey or Groves and an additional pick, but the Pats would need to have the right player (Ellis? Ryan?) fall to them at 7 and the right team (Bangles? Panthers?) wanting to move up. This draft is supposed to be deep at CB, so I would have no problem waiting until round two and possibly moving up a little to grab the right one if necessary, but I can’t see using a high pick on one and missing out on an elite pass rusher because there are only so many of those guys walking the earth.

You get the last word for now, Trav. But, dear readers, there is much more to come throughout the next two days, and Chris Warner will be back on Monday to offer a wrap up of the whole thing. So I’ll talk to you later. In the meantime, you’re encouraged to add your own thoughts in our comments section.

On The Clock: One Man’s Draft Board

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

It’s Draft Eve, and I’ve come to hang my stocking by the chimney with care.

But first…..do you think Roger Goodell will one day be the worst commissioner in the history of professional sports, or do you think he already is? I don’t want to go off on a rant here, but come on, this week they reach a deal with G. Gordon Walsh? Like the draft would have been ruined by a supposed dark cloud hovering over the league? Come on. That’s only if you give quarter to the Peter King Family, aka the mainstream NFL media, the fussbudget bastards. As far as I’m concerned, they’re the dark cloud hanging over the league, considering Walsh is most probably going to present them all with “not much” in a couple of weeks. Anyway, point is that once that first pick goes off on Saturday, nobody gives a squat about Walk Through-gate. Other than ESPN, I mean.

Goodell makes me very nervous, as someone who bought the NFL Films sales pitch a long time ago. I mean, Pete Rozelle would have handled that dust up over that camera with a couple of well placed phone calls on Monday morning. He wouldn’t even have been late for lunch. The current guy is still holding press briefings eight months later like he’s Chuck Heston at a NRA rally. When pick 31 comes up on the board on Saturday, is he going to walk up there and remind people he stripped it away? Maybe bump chests with Chris Mortensen? Criminy.

So, as I was about to say, I’ve got these draft boards.

I’ve mentioned before - something about the NFL Draft makes me want to make lists. So in the course of my extensive draft readings over the last two months (you know, in my study, fireplace going, brandy, ascot), I took note of the guys who seemed to have the characteristics the Patriots seem to value in their draft picks, seemingly. I guess what I’m saying is that I cannot emphasize the word ’seem’ enough.

Between you and me, I’d prefer that you look at the chart horizontally before vertically. As you’ll see, the seven rounds are represented, and players are slotted in by round. If you look at the chart top down, you’ll see the players by position, by round. The first chart we’ll look at will be offense, and the defense will follow.

It’s a guess. The players picked were chosen as a matter of personal taste and my limited understanding of what the Pats may be trying to do. The rounds are an even looser guess, recognizing that many of the players will be choosen earlier than I have them here. The idea was to approximate where the Pats may be in the position to draft them, and even then, you have to account for possible trades.

Yeah, it’s futile. I know. But this is the way I look at it; so what?

Here’s my offensive guys. Don’t blame them.

If you’d rather look at the chart without scrolling, click here.

Summary: Why are all these offensive players on my draft board? I’m like Matt Millen over here. Generally, I looked for quarterbacks who were said to have good size, smarts, poise and the requisite physical tools. Still, aside from Henne, they’re all developmental guys. For runners, I looked for quick receiver types, but I’m also a sucker for a good running back story. Hence the mixture of bruisers like Mendenhall and Stewart, and productive all-around types like the mid-round group of Choice, Rice and Hart. At the receiver position, Sweed stuck out as a highly skilled worker with good makeup, and after that, it’s all quick waterbugs with good feel for the slot and kick returns, with Dexter Jackson rising to the top. At tight end, the thought was two-fold; potential starter-types early, and versatile do-everything guys with heft later on. As with all the linemen, we’re looking for brawn, brains, athleticism and toughness. It’s hard to resist the thought of tossing the sizable and athletic Albert in the Pats o-line mix, where he could compete for a starting job in a number of positions (how about right guard?). Cherilus could battle for the right tackle spot right away. One wag compared Greco (Nick Kaczur’s successor at Toledo) to Logan Mankins, and he’s been on the list ever since. Yes, this has been a very scientific process. The rest of the list is a mix of take-a-shot developmental types (Cousins and Dunlap - come on, you have to draft a guy who calls himself King) and the usual multi-position suspects that would add depth. As you can tell, in a draft that’s supposed to be loaded with tackles, I went heavy with the guards (not a strength, evidently). I prefer to think of myself as a bold visionary unafraid to buck the trend, you know, like when Bill Tobin drafted Trev Alberts.

And now the defense.

Once again, the non-scroll version.

Summary: I think we’re all hoping that the Patriots don’t end up using the 7th pick tomorrow, given the visions of draft bounties dancing in our heads. So this chart is heavier in the middle rounds, where we hope New England will exercise multiple picks. I probably should have put Long in with the OLB’s (Vrabel vibe) as the rest of the column is filled with guys that seemed to fit as 3-4 ends. I’d love to see the Pats come away with a legit backup to Vince Wilfork, so here’s a few that may fit that bill. At OLB, I focused on college ends that will transition to situational pass rushers off the edge, though I also looked for some coverage potential and versatility as well, particularly at the bottom of the board. On the inside, priority one was the strength to shed blocks and fill inside, but Mayo rose to the top by offering athleticism as well. Next are the cornerbacks, where I looked for quickness over speed (though there’s some wicked 40 times in there) and awareness, as Pats corners work as part of a unit instead of out on an island. I’ll say it now; nearly every one of these guys is slotted too late (Flowers, for example, could go in the first), and it’s because I didn’t have enough room to put them all at the top of the board. Keep an eye on Godfrey and Castille too; both are listed in some publications as safeties, but they may fit better as corners in New England. Last but not least, there’s a small handful of in-the-box safeties with enough athleticism to handle some coverage responsibilities too.

That’s it for today. Tomorrow morning, the Roundtable guys will be here with some pre-draft thoughts, and of course, I’ll be here throughout the day as the first two rounds unfold. Bottom line: it should be a hell of a lot of fun. I’m looking forward to it.

On The Clock: Let’s Make A Deal

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

In 2006, the Oakland Raiders selected Jim Thorpe Award winner Michael Huff of Texas with the 7th pick of the first round. Huff, who has since gone on to start 32 straight games at safety for Oakland, was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $43 million, including $15 million in guaranteed money.

Last spring, the Minnesota Vikings owned the 7th choice, which they used on Oklahoma runner and Heisman finalist Adrian Peterson, the soon-to-be NFL Rookie of the Year. Peterson signed a five-year deal worth $40.5 million, with $17 million of it guaranteed. 

Given all that, it seems safe to say that this year’s 7th selection will ultimately sign a 5 or 6 year contract worth approximately $40 million and guarantees approaching $20 million. At an average of seven to eight million dollars per annum, the rookie would immediately become one of his new team’s highest paid players before he’s ever taken an NFL snap.

Hence, the almost foregone conclusion among Patriots fans that their team will find a way to avoid a contract of that magnitude in a draft that is seen as bereft of pure Top Ten players. Why pay the 7th pick more than $40 million when you can get a roughly comparable player at half, or even a quarter of the cost?

But can the Patriots trade back? That’s the question.

Over the last five drafts, there have been just five trades involving Top Ten picks. Only one has occured since 2004 (the 07 Atlanta-Houston swap that involved an exchange of Top Tens). That means only two of the last 30 Top Ten picks (or roughly 7%) have been acquired by trade.

Even worse for the Pats prospects, no middle-tier team has moved into the Top Ten since 2003.

Still, even with this grim data, history tells us that it’s not impossible for New England to deal out of that 7th slot next weekend. But if they do, what kind of return can Pats fans expect?

To find an answer to that question, let’s review the last five draft day deals involving Top Ten picks:

DRAFT: 2007
TRADE UP: ATLANTA, FROM #10 TO #8
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#10), 3RD YEAR QUARTERBACK MATT SCHAUB
TRADE DOWN: HOUSTON, FROM #8 TO #10
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#10), 2ND ROUND (#39), 2008 2ND ROUND (#48)

SUMMARY: These picks are in the right neighborhood for a comparison to the Pats present situation, but the presence of Schaub (an 04 3rd rounder) in the deal makes such a direct comparison difficult. While they got an experienced quarterback who was ready to play right away (let’s say he was the equivilent of one of those second-rounders), it sure looks like Houston gave up at least a second round pick for the right to trade back two slots. Not what Pats fans want to hear, but again, Schaub’s value makes it hard to draw any real conclusions here.

DRAFT: 2004
TRADE UP: NEW YORK GIANTS, FROM #4 TO #1
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#4), 3RD ROUND (#65), 2005 1ST ROUND (#12), 2005 5TH ROUND (#144).
TRADE DOWN: SAN DIEGO, FROM #1 TO #4
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#1)

SUMMARY: Again, a tough comparison for a few reasons. First, it involved two teams in the Top Five, but secondarily because this was the Eli Manning/Phillip Rivers trade. The Chargers and Giants actually drafted the two players and swapped them after the picks. This indicates that at least recently, it takes extraordinary circumstances for these top end deals to happen. But if Manning and Rivers cancel each other out here, it looks like the Giants gave up a 04 third-rounder, and a first-rounder and fifth-rounder in the 05 draft for the right to move up three spots. Once again, though, the Manning-Rivers spin to this trade makes it hard to draw any conclusions.

DRAFT: 2004
TRADE UP: CLEVELAND, FROM #7 TO #6
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#7), 2ND ROUND (#37)
TRADE DOWN: DETROIT, FROM #6 TO #7
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#6)

SUMMARY: Eureka! A trade involving the 7th pick! Now we’re getting somewhere. The Browns made the move up to target Kellen Winslow, who the Lions were probably threatening to draft themselves. Detroit gets an additional 2nd round pick in exchange for taking a pass on the Miami tight end. This four-year old deal is probably the most encouraging example for Pats fans who are hoping their team can trade back and grab another first day pick for their trouble. The fact that the trade was engineered by Matt Millen gives pause, though.

DRAFT: 2003
TRADE UP: NEW YORK JETS, FROM #13 TO #4
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#13), 1ST ROUND (#22), 4TH ROUND (#116)
TRADE DOWN: CHICAGO, FROM #4 TO #13
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#4)

SUMMARY: The holy grail. A middle-tier team (the Jets) gives up multiple picks to move into the #4 spot. The Bears got two first-rounders and an additional fourth for moving back 9 slots in the draft. Once again, a move inspired by one team coveting a certain player (Dewayne Robertson). It’s only a bonus that the Jets are now killing themselves trying to dump him. Considering we’re talking about the fourth pick the draft, not an exact match where the Pats are concerned. In addition, it’s now been five years since this trade and the salary structure of these early picks have grown exponentially since. Would the Bears still pull down the same return on the fourth pick today?

DRAFT: 2003
TRADE UP: NEW ORLEANS, FROM #17 TO #6
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#17), 1ST ROUND (#18), 2ND ROUND (#54)
TRADE DOWN: ARIZONA, FROM #6 TO #17
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#6), 2ND ROUND (#37), 4TH ROUND (#102)

SUMMARY: Another mid-tier team (New Orleans) reaching up for a player (Johnathan Sullivan). The Cardinals netted an additional first-rounder, but they had to move back 17 spots in the second round, and give up an additional fourth round pick to jump back into the late teens. This is roughly the type of move back that most expect the Pats to attempt. Two affordable first-rounders in the late teens or early twenties (5 yr. deal, $2-$3 million in annual salary, about half of deal guaranteed) would be an affordable but potentially effective alternative to the $40 million for a top ten pick. The associated manuevering and loss of a fourth ended up working out okay for Arizona: they selected Florida State WR Anquan Boldin with that #54.

So a deal is certainly possible, but is it profitable? Detroit got a second rounder for moving one spot in 04, but how much would that sort of deal help the Patriots financially? It would add another second-round contract, but in truth, the relief they would get for moving two or three slots in the rookie pay scale could be significant. Last year, the difference between the seventh and tenth pick (Amobi Okoye) was about $23 million in total value and $4 million in guaranteed money. The lower they drop, the lower the return, but a move back to 9 or 10 and the addition of a third round pick is perhaps one scenario. #9 Cincinnati is said to covet USC DT Sedrick Ellis, and maybe a Pats threat to pick Ellis themselves would scare a third-rounder (#77) out of the Bengals, who have a compensatory third to replace the pick they lose under this scenario. This would save the Pats about half the salary commitment on their first round pick and give them the 62nd, the 69th, the 77th and 94th selections. They could even lose that 94th pick to buff up their second day plate, where they have only one choice per round.

Foremost in mind at the moment, however, is the first pick, and coincidentally, the fate of Boston College’s Matt Ryan. The Patriots have to be hoping that Ryan slides down to them, passed over by Miami, Atlanta, Kansas City, and even the New York Jets at #6. Baltimore, choosing immediately after the Pats at #8, seem like a logical landing spot for the Eagle. That makes the #7 spot of interest to any teams (Carolina at 13? Chicago at 14?) that may also covet Ryan, the top quarterback in the draft. Of course, those same teams could also have interest in spots 3-6. That move from the mid-teens to the top six or seven has most recently come at the cost of at least an additional first round pick. Neither the Bears nor the Panthers have that to give, at least not this year (they do both have extra third round picks, though). I don’t have any idea whether either one thinks getting Matt Ryan is worth giving up their first round pick this year and next. Does he inspire that sort of passion?

Maybe he does.  A recent rumor floated by the draft site the Great Blue North Draft Report speculated that if Ryan was still on the board when the Patriots go on the clock, the Falcons would ship their three second round picks to New England for the right to select Ryan at 7.

If not, maybe Chris Long, Darren McFadden or another top pick will find themselves tumbling next Saturday, driving up the value of the Pats selection. You never know. It’s been commonly assumed that Dallas, and specifically Jerry Jones, would do something with their two-first rounders situated squarely in the tenties (#’s 22 & 28), probably because Jones is thought to have impure thoughts about a McFadden-Marian Barber tandem. Again, who knows. The Cowboys don’t have much to deal with, comparatively, beyond that extra first. What else would they have to do to move all the way to #7? There’s no recent prescedent, so that means we have to consult the dreaded trade charts.

I say ‘charts’ because there’s rumors that the old Jimmy Johnson chart from the 90’s has been updated to reflect the rookie salary impact on the early picks.

The old chart places a value of 1,500 on the 7th pick, and the two Dallas picks are valued at a combined 1,440. That makes for an easy swap: an extra first for dropping 15 slots in the first round. Maybe the Pats squeeze out a fourth rounder (#126) to even the scales. 

The new version, however, tempers that considerably. Because it is intended to more accurately reflect the financial burden of the earliest picks, the Cowboys two picks are now worth a combined 1,690 points, or some 120 points more than the #7th selection (1,570). It’s not clear if teams are actually using the updated version, but if they are, now it’s the Patriots giving up the extra choice, possibly one of their two third rounders (#94, still worth about 120 points).

Granted, there’s probably a dozen variations on this theme, but does it seem to you like there’s a major trade in the Patriots future? The small ones, like sliding back a small handful of spaces in the heat of the draft day moment, seem more advantageous at this point.

Still, once you start in with these trade value charts, it’s hard to stop. You keep coming up with these elaborate scenarios. Here’s one. If the Pats were somehow able to swing the trade back to the middle teens, it could provide a domino effect that would give New England their best chance at a major draft haul. Let’s look at a couple of recent trades for examples.
 
DRAFT: 2007
TRADE UP: NEW YORK JETS, FROM #25 TO #14
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#25) 2ND ROUND (#59), 6TH ROUND (#164)
TRADE DOWN: CAROLINA, FROM #14 TO #25
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#14), 6TH ROUND (#191)

DRAFT: 2007
TRADE UP: DENVER, FROM #21 TO #17
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#21), 3RD ROUND (#86), 7TH ROUND (#198)
TRADE DOWN: JACKSONVILLE, FROM #17 TO #21
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#17), 6TH ROUND (#191)

DRAFT: 2003
TRADE UP: PHILADELPHIA, FROM #28 TO #16
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#28), 2ND ROUND (#58)
TRADE DOWN: SAN FRANSISCO, FROM #16 TO #28
GAVE UP: 1ST ROUND (#16)

So from this was can estimate that the return on trading back from a mid-teens pick to one in the twenties is probably a second or third round pick, depending on how far you move.

Stick with me, here. Let’s say for the sake of argument that Carolina really wants Matt Ryan, things break the right way and the Pats trade back from 7th to 13th next Saturday, picking up a fourth rounder in 08 and a first round pick next year in the process (the rough equivilent of the 03 trades involving the Bears and Jets, Saints and Cardinals). They get out from under the financial obligations of the 7th pick, grab an additional second day pick, and perhaps most importantly, set themselves up with two firsts in 09.

But instead of choosing a player with the 13th pick, the Patriots trade back again, this time with Green Bay, picking at #30. Green Bay’s got their eye on someone (pick one - maybe one of the corners?), so they surrender one of their two second rounders (#56) and their third (#91) to jump way up.

At that point, the Patriots would have traded twice, and been left with six picks in the alleged sweet spot of this draft: #30, 56, 62, 69, 91 and 94. Plus an additional fourth rounder, and, last but not least, a first round pick in 2009. I suppose it says something about Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli that we think them capable of something that audacious.

To close, here’s a list of teams that may be active on this weekend’s trade front by virtue of their multiple picks:

KANSAS CITY: With the trade of NFL sack leader Jared Allen to Minnesota on Tuesday, the Chiefs become the belle of the Playa Haters Ball this weekend. The Chiefs now have two first rounders (5 & 17), one second (35), and three third rounders (66, 73 & 82). Herm-iffic!

Others with multiples:

ATLANTA: Three second round picks (34, 37 & 48) and two thirds (68 & 98, which is compensatory and can’t be traded).
GREEN BAY: Two seconds (56 & 60).
MIAMI: Two seconds (33 & 57).
CAROLINA: Two thirds (67 & 74).
CHICAGO: Two thirds (70 & 90).
JACKSONVILLE: Two thirds (71 & 89) and three fifths (143, 158 & 159).

On The Clock: The Buzzword Is ‘Value’

logoby Dan Snapp
dan@patriotsdaily.com

Were he to ever waste a precious second worrying about what fans think, Bill Belichick would hate “In Bill We Trust”. The honor brings more demands than plaudits. Like he doesn’t have enough to worry about.

Belichick has spoiled us. And being the spoiled children that we are, we expect a treat each time we go to the store. So at draft time, there are certain entitlements to be fulfilled.

We insist the Patriots nail their first round pick every time, regardless of where in the round they’re picking. It’s their own damn fault, really. They reaped rewards with Richard Seymour, Daniel Graham, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Benjamin Watson, Logan Mankins, and Laurence Maroney (too early to know with Brandon Meriweather), so we’re well within our rights to demand the same each year.

Magnanimous as we are, we’ll offer some scant leeway. We’ll permit a second round screwup  from time to time, so long as it’s not habit-forming (and don’t think we forgot about the trades up for Bethel Johnson or Chad Jackson). It’s nice to see the early whiffs in the third round (Brock Williams, Guss Scott) rectified later with the Ellis Hobbs and Nick Kaczur picks. Not to nitpick, but when can we expect another David Givens seventh round surprise?

Fans are fickle. It’s the offseason, and there’s little else to talk about. So we obsess about the lean second day crop in ‘04 or the “one-man draft” of ‘07 (I know, I know: “two-man draft”).

The ‘07 draft needs no justification. The Pats traded away a first, second, third, fourth and seventh round pick, and got in return the seventh overall pick this year, Wes Welker, a high third rounder, and Randy Moss. The underlying message from the team was clear: this draft stinks, but we still got value for our picks, and stocked up for what’s slated to be a great draft next year.

Next year is here, and expectations are running high. There should be no future considerations deals this year. From what the draft resources tell us, this is the draft to restock your offensive line, your cornerbacks, and to find another running back, so the Pats need to play their hand. The loss of the 31st pick severely hampers their leverage and flexibility to wheel and deal, but they’re still a player, what with the top ten pick and the extra third from Oakland.

So what will they do?

Everything about the way the team has drafted this decade screams, “Move down!” They have moved up twice in the first round - up 11 picks in ‘02 to grab Graham, and up one pick in ‘03 to nab Warren - but “value” is the Patriots buzzword. If the draft is as deep as we’re being told, and with such uncertainty on who the premium players are (and for such a high cost), the logical course is to trade into the teens, assuming a trade partner is there.

If no partner is in the offing, expect a big body at seven (Sedrick Ellis on defense, Brendan Albert on offense). As predicated last week, we don’t know the players well, but we can go on the Patriots’ patterns. Selecting that high, I think the Patriots will opt for the rare physical specimen, like they did in ‘01 with Seymour.

The Jets are important, just not for the reasons people think. Much as Belichick and Eric Mangini detest one another, neither’s going to sacrifice what’s in the best interest of their team out of spite for the other. But since both are 3-4 teams in the top ten, they’re targeting the same people. Unless the Jets are eyeing quarterback Matt Ryan, the two teams will be fighting to race down, not up, the draft.

This draft has that “building a champion” feel, like the ‘86 one where the 49ers found seven starters despite not having a first round pick, or the ‘91 draft that netted Dallas eight starters. With seven picks in the top 103, this could be the draft that makes the Falcons. Same goes for Kansas City, with six picks in the top 100 after the Jared Allen trade.

For the Patriots, the ‘86  49ers analogy is an apt one. Joe Montana turned 30 that year, and that draft restocked the Niners for a second run. This is the Patriots’ opportunity to do the same for Tom Brady.

On The Clock: Acorn Hunting

logoby Chris Warner
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

Not sure if you’ve been made aware of this, but the NFL Draft is coming up. It’s a shame no one in sports journalism pays attention. Those draft gurus work so hard. I mean, think about having to make predictions that end up mostly wrong, with everyone watching. And then doing it all over again, year after year. Can you imagine paying someone for that?

(Yes, of course we’re jealous.)

When we talk about the Patriots’ drafts during the Belichick era, it isn’t long before a certain sixth-round pick enters the conversation. While it makes sense to laud the Foxboro front office for their savvy in picking Tom Brady, a quick review of the entire 2000 draft shows their human side:

2nd – Adrian Klemm, OT
3rd – J. R. Redmond, RB
4th – Greg Robinson-Randall, OT
5th – Dave Stachelski, TE
5th – Jeff Marriott, DT
6th – Antwan Harris, CB
6th – Tom Brady, duh
7th – Casey Tisdale, OLB
7th – Patrick Pass, RB

I mean, really: Dave Stachelski? The intention here isn’t to downplay the greatest sixth round pick in NFL history. It just shows that, as an old coach used to say, even a blind sow finds an acorn once in a while.

Here goes a list of prospective late-round/undrafted rookies in whom the Pats could show some interest. Please don’t consider these as predictions, because they’ll be wrong, and then I’d have to take your money.

Secondary – Terrence Wheatley, Colorado. Small, fast and tough, Wheatley has displayed solid coverage (11 careers INTs) and kick returning skills (24.8-yard avg. in 2007). Despite his noteworthy speed at the combine (4.37 40), his height (5-9) and injury history (foot) could keep teams away and make him a late steal.

Secondary secondary pick: Nate Lyles, Virginia. Had 68 tackles last year. He’s a gamer who overcame a neck injury in 2005 to become a team leader the past two seasons. Belichick will get a spot-on scouting report from Virginia Coach Al Groh, who has a history with him going back to their time with the Cleveland Browns.

DB Honorable Mention: Scorpio Babers, Sam Houston State. Sure, I could tell you that he had ideal measurements (5-11) and speed (4.36 40) for a cornerback prospect. I could tell you that his broad jump went 10 feet, four inches. But all I really want to tell you is that his name is Scorpio! Do you think he’s emotional and stubborn, yet self-confident? Should his fortune go on the scouting report, along with his off-the-field issues? So many questions.

Linebacker – Jameel McClain, Syracuse. Maybe another Oscar Lua in that he stops what’s in front of him but has trouble in coverage. Looks like a team player who gets credit for switching in college from linebacker to end based on his team’s needs. As they say, necessity is the mother of versatility. Wait: that’s not right…

LB Honorable Mention: Bryan Kehl, BYU. Small for an outside linebacker in the Pats’ defense (6-2, 242), but has the speed and quickness to break in as a special teamer and eventually gain playing time in coverage packages. At 24, he’s an older rookie, which makes some teams hesitate. I have no idea why.

Defensive Line – Frank Okam, Texas. Slow as a glacier and similar in size (6-5, 347), Okam has the potential to take on blockers in New England’s 3-4 scheme. Since 2004, the Patriots have lacked a second nose tackle/leviathan in the Ted Washington/Keith Traylor mold. Okam stands a long way from that level, but he’s worth a late-round look if available.

Honorable Mention: Bryan Mattison, Iowa. Good speed and versatility makes this player a solid choice for backup defensive end. Played under Kirk Ferentz (another hire of Belichick’s while at Cleveland), which might garner him a second look.

Wide Receiver – Dexter Jackson, Appalachian State. If you told me you’d heard of Jackson before ASU’s upset of Michigan last September, your pants would ignite. At 5-9, 185, this diminutive ball of lightning gets open and catches passes as well as punts. If Jackson ever feels the size thing getting him down, he can look at Wes Welker and smile (as many of us Pats fans do).

Because Jackson’s stock has risen almost as much as Tom Brady’s investment in scarves (I mean, seriously, all he needs are a leather pilot’s helmet and goggles to complete the outfit), we include two honorable mentions for this position:

WR Honorable Mention 1: Kevin Robinson, Utah State. A weak 40 time of 4.65 will keep him waiting on Day 2 of the draft, but his quickness and pass-catching ability should get him a look at camp. Also had great success as a punt and kick returner, as seen in this 100-yard treat vs. Hawaii last year.

WR Honorable Mention 2: Chaz Schilens, San Diego State. Measured 6-4 and showed freakish ability at his pro day, including a 4.38 40 and a 43-inch vertical. The Pats have drafted athletic wide receivers who didn’t pan out (“Simmons and Johnson” isn’t the name of a law firm), but if they got Schilens into camp, he’d be fun to watch. Speaking of watching, if you’re in the mood for a grainy highlight video, here’s one right here.

Offensive Line – Mike Gibson, Cal. This former teammate of Ryan O’Callaghan takes the Heart and Guts train over the Athleticism Express. At 6-4, 305, he fits the physical profile of Patriots linemen and has shown the type of position flexibility New England seeks. Seems to have the nasty attitude necessary, a form of praise reserved for pro football and few other lines of work. (I mean, wouldn’t it feel awesome to put “nasty attitude” on your resume?)

OL Honorable Mention: Shannon Boatman, FSU. A junior college transfer who has yet to live up to his potential, yet what potential he has: at 6-6, 315, he ran a 4.95 40-yard dash. I’d like to see what he could do after two years under line coach Dante Scarnecchia.

Tight End – Craig Stevens, Cal. While many faux drafts (I feel they don’t “mock” as much as they seem fake) have the Pats picking Notre Dame’s John Carlson, Stevens has been rated as a better blocker (most 225-pound reps of any tight end). His underwhelming stats stemmed from playing with an NFL-caliber receiving corps (DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, RB Justin Forsett).

Honorable Mention: Mike Peterson, NW Missouri State. Short at 6-2, 250, Peterson would play H-back to free up Benjamin Watson and David Thomas in the passing game.

Running Back – Hugh Charles, Colorado. Justin Forsett’s a target for the Pats mid-round, but Charles shouldn’t be overlooked for any team seeking a small, strong and fast halfback who can be gotten for the price of a phone call and a preseason meal plan. Like Patrick Cobbs in 2006, he’d be the darling of camp. Unlike Cobbs, he can fly. Watch him during a Buffaloes track meet.

RB Honorable Mention: Andre Callender, Boston College. Not dynamic, but with Matt Ryan at QB Callender caught 72 passes in 2007. (Of course, an oil drum on wheels could catch passes with Ryan at the helm.) Callender has potential as a backup and special-teamer in the Patrick Pass mold.

Quarterback – Matt Flynn, LSU. He won’t wow you slinging it, but he won’t kill you, either. A prototypical dink-and-dunker who managed his team to the national championship, he’s got good athleticism but doesn’t seem to defer to it too much.

QB Honorable Mention: Bernard Morris, Marshall. A QB working in a halfback’s body. Isn’t it about time we brought back the Michael Bishop era?

Some other potential picks of note:

DE/OLB conversion project - Trevor Scott, Buffalo. An unknown for most of his career, his story broke after a stellar pro day that had him running a 4.54 40 and putting up 225 pounds 32 times. If he’s still available late, the Pats could pounce, although don’t they already have their conversion project in Pierre Woods?

Awesome OLB candidate, if only… - Vince Redd, Liberty. Redd has the rare size and speed of a Pats-prototype OLB (6-5, 260, 4.56 40), but the locals will put up a red flag because Coach Groh booted Redd out of Virginia.

Just for the heck of it, look out for - DT Jason Shirley, Fresno State. If not for off-the-field troubles (note: cars plus drinking equals bad), his size (6-5, 330) would make him a mid-round pick or higher. Also has a noteworthy coaching background from Pat Hill (worked at Cleveland under Belichick, blah blah blah).

The Chris Henry freakishly athletic back you hadn’t heard of - Lavarus Giles, Jackson State. A big back at 6-1, 220, Giles runs track and was timed at a 4.4 40. Why would the Pats be interested? Ask them: they had reps in attendance for his pro day, according to this blogger.

Guy to root for – OLB Tommy Blake, TCU. Blake had been projected as a first-round pick until his senior season, when he had to take a medical leave due to bipolar disorder. Seems like a decent guy with a terrible problem, but recent signs of his improvement have been positive on the professional and personal front.

On The Clock: Pats Prototypes

lokoby Chris Warner
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

(Editor’s Note: We’re pleased to officially welcome Chris Warner to the PD staff this morning. Chris will handle our game re-caps this fall, but as a warm-up, he’s assembled this two-parter on how the Patriots may approach next weekend’s NFL Draft. Welcome, Chris.)

Though I was thinking of comparing the NFL draft to a holiday, it seems more akin to my birthday: I’m getting excited and making plans, yet few people seem as involved as I am. And, by the end of the weekend, another year will have gone by with only minimal progress.

To start off PDDW (Patriots Daily Draft Week – copyright pending!) let’s review the types of horses Coach Belichick and Co. tend to bring to the Foxboro ranch.

Quarterback – No thanks, we’re good… Seriously, though, New England could use a backup who doesn’t make fans reach for their heart medication at the thought of him playing. No rookie will instill complete confidence, but going by the Brady outline, I’ll say they’ll start looking on Day Two for someone who’s efficient, smart, and cute as a button.

Candidates: Josh Johnson, San Diego (most efficient college QB in the country last year); Dennis Dixon, Oregon (Heisman candidate until hurting his knee); Ricky Santos, UNH (Walter Payton Award winner, plus, he’s from Norwood!).

Running Back – Let’s go back to the 1990 Giants: get a big back (O. J. Anderson at 6-2, 220, which is still pretty sizable) to get first downs and keep the clock running. They have two decent-sized backs and two bigger backups, but now that the Pats pass the ball all over the place, size isn’t as important. Could be time for a Kevin Faulk backup.

Candidates (larger): Jonathan Stewart, Oregon; Matt Forte, Tulane.

Candidates (smaller): Thomas Brown, Georgia; Justin Forsett, Cal.

Wide Receiver – As with Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Troy Brown, if you don’t have great size, just have some wiggle and get open.  When looking at combine numbers, eschew the 40 and look at the 20-yard shuttle and the three-cone drill. If the former’s 4.2 and the latter’s 6.75, take note.

Candidates:  Dexter Jackson, Appalachian State; Harry Douglas, Louisville; Arman Shields, Richmond.

Tight End – They have their guy in Benjamin Watson, although he’s a level below ideal expectations in both receiving and blocking. David Thomas is a golden-gloved receiver with bronze-medal blocking skills. Like any team, they could use what Watson flashes to be: a big, strong, fast guy with great hands and quickness. No non-blockers apply.

Candidates: Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M; Brad Cottam, Tennessee; Kellen Davis, Michigan State.

Offensive Line – With the 6-7, 330 Ryan O’Callaghan the one quite noticeable exception, Patriots lineman are quick-footed 300-pounders with decent (6-5) length. While New England found great success in early rounds with Matt Light and Logan Mankins, they have groomed technicians like Dan Koppen (5th round) and athletes like Stephen Neal (undrafted). Versatility is also key (don’t forget: Koppen was a guard alongside Damien Woody until taking over at center).

Candidates: Branden Albert, Virginia (first round); Duane Brown, Virginia Tech; Jeremy Zuttah, Rutgers.

Defensive End – Okay, I’ll admit it: I was skeptical of the Richard Seymour choice in 2001, and the Ty Warren pick didn’t exactly wow me in 2003, either. Oh, how I’ve learned. Long arms, leverage and athleticism remain key, as the DE has to shut down runs to his side of the line and/or pester the QB on any given play.

Candidates: Kendall Langford, Hampton; Kentwan Balmer, UNC.

Nose Tackle - Ted Washington is still in the NFL at 40 years old because he’s 6-5, 375. All 3-4 nose tackles like to get in the way. It helps if, like Vince Wilfork, your NT moves with surprising agility, clogging up running lanes and freeing up linebackers. Another tough find, which is why the Pats covet Wilfork.

Candidates: Frank Okam, Texas; Red Bryant, Texas A&M.

Inside Linebacker – The biggest difference between 3-4 inside linebackers and 4-3 ILBs is size. Look at Carolina LB Adam Seward, one-time object of New England flirting. He’s listed as 6-2, 248. The guy he backs up, Jon Beason, is 6-foot, 237. Historically, these guys have been run stoppers who take on offensive behemoths (think Ted Johnson), but these days they need more quickness to cover backs out of the backfield. Not an easy combination to find.

Candidates: James Laurinaitis, Ohio State; Rey Maualuga, USC. Oh, cripes, they’re not eligible. Umm, let’s see… Keith Rivers, USC (maybe); Beau Bell, UNLV (kinda).

Outside Linebacker – Mike Vrabel, Adalius Thomas, Rosevelt Colvin and Willie McGinest all have one thing in common (well, more than one thing, because they worked together): they all played defensive end in college. We’re looking at 6-5, at least 255, with the ability to cover tight ends. Lots to choose from next week, although there seems to be a two- to three-year conversion period from college DE to Pats OLB.

Candidates: Vernon Gholston, Ohio State (oh pleasepleaseplease); Quentin Groves, Auburn; Jeremy Thompson, Wake Forest.

Cornerback – Yes, speed rules much of football (and sports in general. Take the 100-meter dash: seriously, speed means everything in that). Still, eye-popping 40 times don’t mean as much as reaction skills.  Asante Samuel or Ellis Hobbs: who’s faster? Now, whom would you rather have on your team? (Excuse me as I gag a little bit.)

Candidates: Antoine Cason, Arizona; Tracy Porter, Indiana; Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech.

Safety – Hitters who can cover. Unlike corners, whose tackle totals might tell you that they’re getting picked on, safeties’ big stats demonstrate run support. There needs to be a balance between being aggressive and staying in control, as epitomized by players like Rodney Harrison (Ha, ha. Heh. Yeah. If by “staying in control” you mean “going batguano in tense moments”).

Candidates (slim pickings): Josh Barrett, Arizona State (strong); Quintin Demps, UTEP (free).

Tomorrow, we look for late-round and undrafted Pats possibilities.

Sunday Draft Links

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The Final Countdown (insidious earworm) to the 73rd Annual NFL Draft has begun, so its time to dust off the old Sunday Links coffee cup for a springtime spin around the morning papers. The locals are cranking up for a full week of Pats chatter, so let’s get started.

The Globe is focusing on a position group a day in their draft coverage, and this morning, it’s the quarterbacks. Naturally, BC’s Matt Ryan is at the top of the list, as he is on many draft boards around the league. Michael Vega has a sit down with the Eagle signalcaller, and then runs us through the gauntlet Ryan has had to run this spring as one of the NFL’s top prospects.

I’m thinking Ryan and the Baltimore Ravens may be the best things the Patriots have going for them in this draft. The former Heisman candidate has been rumored to be sliding down the Top Ten board as quarterback-needy teams like the Dolphins and Falcons seem focused on defensive players first. It appears, though, that the Ravens (picking at #8) won’t pass on Ryan, so if anyone wants to cut in front of them, theyll be trying to work a deal with either the Jets or the Pats at 6 & 7. How about the Panthers (#13) or the Bears (#14) as possible trade partners?

Mike Reiss takes a closer look at two more quarterback prospects - Lousiville’s Brian Brohm and Tennessee’s Erik Ainge. As Mike points out, the Pats could very well be intent on adding a quarterback to spice up the backup competition in New England, though its unclear just how high they’ll reach to do so. In the back of my mind, I’m leaving open the possibility of Chad Henne with one of their third round picks, but that’s probably just because he plays for Michigan. You can’t blame me.

Reiss closes out the Globe offerings with a jam-packed draft-based Notes column. You know, when you list Phil Savage’s off-season trades and signings all together like that, they look awful. You’d think he was general manager of the Broncos. Also, Jeremy Shockey couldn’t ruin the Super Bowl for the Giants, so naturally, he’d like to be traded to some team he can ruin. Naturally, some sucker will bite, which will further line New York’s draft pockets. The Giants are leading a charmed life these days.

Bill Belichick name-checked the 1991 Draft in his mid-week press conference, which sent John Tomase of the Herald and Jim Donaldson of the ProJo off on a search of the archives. Sam Jankovich and Joe Mendes? Can Coach Mac be far behind? Douglas Flynn of the MetroWest Daily News is eyes forward, though, as he scopes out the myriad possibilities that exist within those first six picks of next weekend’s draft.

Shalise Manza Young closes out the morning links with a look at the Pats defensive line group. 

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