by Christopher Price
chris@patriotsdaily.com

The last time the Patriots faced the Giants — in that famous Week 17 clash at the Meadowlands — the right side of the New England offensive line consisted of second-year Ryan O’Callaghan at right tackle and all-purpose utilityman Russ Hochstein at right guard. New England rushed for just 44 yards and barely came away with a 38-35 win.

This time around, starting right guard Stephen Neal and starting right tackle Nick Kaczur are expected to be healthy enough to play. If their recent performance is any indication, the Giants’ defense — particularly their run stoppers — could be in for a long night a week from Sunday in Super Bowl XLII.

“Russ and Ryan came in and stepped in there when they needed to; they’ve done a great job for us,” said center Dan Koppen. “But Steve and Nick, they’re our guys,”

Back in that December matchup, O’Callaghan and Hochstein did a great job of helping blunt the Giants’ vaunted pass rush, as the Patriots’ offensive line held the likes of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to just one sack on the night. But with its starting offensive line in place for both playoff games, New England has averaged 147 rushing yards in the postseason, grinding out 145 against Jacksonville and 149 against San Diego.

This postseason, the Patriots have been able to dominate on the ground for several reasons. Bad weather has placed a renewed emphasis on the running game. In addition, favorable matchups have allowed the backs to flourish — the Jags were playing nickel and dime coverage much of the night in the divisional playoffs, concentrating on stopping the New England passing game as opposed to the running backs. There was also the move from three- and four-wides to a two- and three-tight end set against the Chargers that paid dividends down the stretch in the form of big yards on the ground.

But a large part of it can also be found in the fact that New England has had its starting offensive line — Kaczur, Neal, Koppen, left guard Logan Mankins and left tackle Matt Light — together for back-to-back games for the first time since early December.

“We expect that from them — they consistently do it,” said fullback Heath Evans after Sunday’s win over the Chargers. “Those guys have played together for a long time.” 

It’s not just lately — the last six times the Patriots had their starting offensive line on the field as a group, they rushed for less than 90 yards only once when they had 48 yards in a Nov. 18 win over the Bills in Buffalo.

According to Koppen, it’s not an accident that continuity has bred a successful offensive line. When you play alongside someone for an extended period of time, you develop a level of trust that isn’t there if you’re constantly shuffling guys in and out of the lineup.

“It’s important,” he said recently. “We’ve got guys that have been around here for a number of years, and we know what’s expected of each of those guys, and we know what they’re going to do and what their role on our offense is.

“When you’re rolling the same five guys out there — or six, or seven, for that matter, which we’ve had over the course of this year — it’s important to know what they do. It’s important to have trust in them, and really just build on that each week and try to get better.”

STAT OF THE WEEK

13. The number of passes that have been thrown in the direction of Patriots’ running back Kevin Faulk since the start of the postseason. He’s caught all 13.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Just give an old man a chance.” —Patriots linebacker Junior Seau, 39, answering a question about his mindset when he decided to come to New England before the start of last season.

Christopher Price is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the Patriots since 2001 for Boston Metro. He’s served a contributor to ESPN.com, SI.com, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post and The Miami Herald. He’s written “The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower,” and can be reached at chris@patriotsdaily.com.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The still-perfect Patriots are going to their fourth Super Bowl in seven years.

And they did it with defense and the running game - after a season in which Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and others took their fast-break, spread-em-out passing game to dizzying new heights with a high-tech offense straight out of the Jetsons, it was old fashioned, frozen-field grit with a balled fist that finally put them over the top.

New England will move on to Glendale, AZ for Super Bowl XLII, where they will meet again the surprising New York Giants, who nearly ended New England’s undefeated season in December, and who yesterday became the first NFC team ever win three road games to advance to the league championship.

Another Manning standing between the Patriots and a championship. You CANNOT make this stuff up. Some thoughts:

*Three times the limping San Diego Chargers took the ball inside New England’s ten yard line and three times they were turned away without a touchdown (a fourth drive inside the Patriots 25 yielded the same result). Ballgame.

*They allowed San Diego to move the ball freely at times, largely through mid-range completions to Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, as the Chargers nearly matched the Patriots in total yardage though both Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates were gimpy, and LaDainian Tomlinson was relegated to the sidelines.

*But the old guard held fast - Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau both made critical plays in the red zone (and elsewhere) and Mike Vrabel helped crumble the pocket with an edge rush that put him in the Chargers backfield as often as Tomlinson stand-in Michael Turner. Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green and mates caused a ruckus whenever their backs were pinned to the wall. This one was won with defense, a welcome reminder of Foxboroughs Past.

*Bruschi has evidently traveled back in time, regaining the mastery of his youth for this championship run. Each game he gets stronger.

*Laurence Maroney had just thrown himself violently into, and through, a pile defending the San Diego end zone, scoring a touchdown in his fifth straight game, most in exactly this same manner. “Better than Dillon!” I blurted to my wife. I don’t know where that came from, but now that it’s out there, Maroney’s performance over the last month is as good as any Belichick team has gotten. I happily acknowledge vis a vis Maroney that I have never been more horribly wrong about anything.

*He’s got a real notch on his belt now. With nearly five yards a carry (25-122), he and his blockers won an AFC Championship Game for the Patriots. When New England finally decided that its own downfield passing game had become perhaps the greatest threat to its perfect record, it was up to Maroney and Kevin Faulk to give the Pats enough offense to win. When the Patriots, stupified alternately by wind and the Chargers secondary, decided to contract their spread formations and go with two and three tight ends, and Maroney began to spring into the Chargers secondary, New England finally had the right offense to compliment what deserved to be a championship defensive effort.

*And Faulk - how about the guy once known for his fumbles winning the game with his hands? Eight catches as the go-to-guy, some of which demanded last-second dexterity from Faulk’s digits, and various other body parts (always seemed to be on third down too). His biggest was a diving third down catch and roll on the clinching drive. In his post-game remarks, Boomer Esiason imagined a future “Kevin Faulk Day” at Gillette. I thought those were most appropriate remarks, given the day’s - and the career’s - events.  

*Maybe the highest point of the season was a nine minute, eighteen second, 66 yard drive that yielded no points. They just happened to be the final nine minutes and eighteen seconds of the game, with the Chargers trailing by nine and desperate for two more possessions. Yet first down after first down after first down rained down on their gradually slumping shoulders. The Pats barely concealed their sh**-eating grins in the huddle.  

*Three interceptions in a championship game for Tom Brady. The worst was when he threw a meek red zone floater that was easily grabbed by Antonio Cromartie. The MVP was a most vexed person whenever he tried to go upfield to Moss and Donte Stallworth, thanks to Cromartie (who was rarely challenged) and Quentin Jammer (who was, but survived and prospered). If the defense and/or running game had not stepped forward exactly as they did yesterday, there’s no telling what would have happened.

*But as his performance is discussed in the days ahead, and it will be, note the pitch to Jabar Gaffney that converted an Asante Samuel interception and gave the Pats a halftime lead. Note the connection with Welker for the touchdown that gave the Patriots a two-score, fourth quarter lead. Note the symbiosis with Faulk throughout. The Patriots eventually had too many playmakers for the Chargers to cover, and Brady eventually converted, even on one of his toughest days.

*A hellified week for Randy Moss got no better yesterday, at least as far as the stat sheet says. But he did make first downs on his only two touches of the day, and he is going to the first Super Bowl of his always controversial career.  Get ready for two weeks of wall-to-wall Moss as the media looks to fill time before the game. They’ll probably start with his playoff ’slump’ (2 catches for 32 yards in two games) but God knows they won’t end there.

*To me, I’m not as shocked by Brady’s and Moss’s muted performances as I am by the fact that Philip Rivers leaves town as a respected rival. He didn’t get the Chargers in the end zone, and he did throw two picks, but that was still a pretty ballsy game. All the way around, really, by the entire San Diego team. They lost, but I bet they took a big step forward as a team yesterday.

*Tomlinson? Easiest thing in the world to sit back here and question something like this, with nobody hitting me as I type. But I’ll say this - yesterday just seems like the kind of thing that lingers around a guy for awhile. He’s got bigger problems now than what the other team’s coach is or isn’t teaching his players.

*The Patriots have to find a way to keep Kelley Washington around, I think. The Pats special teams have a handful of players - like Washington, Pierre Woods, veterans Eric Alexander and Larry Izzo - that make a big difference every week to little or no notice.

*Until now. In about a week, none of these guys will be able to move an inch without a camera in their mug, a leading question in the air, and a fourth world championship and NFL immortality within their still-perfect reach.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Well, here we are again.

A journey that began approximately 12 months ago with the shocking finality of a game ending Tom Brady interception and the first AFC Championship Game loss in team history has brought the New England Patriots right back to the place where they left off last year - sixty minutes from the Super Bowl.

The wound suffered that day was so deep that the team hasn’t dared lose a game since. Can they take the final step today?

Let’s see what the papers think.

In the Globe, Jim McCabe says the business-like Pats and the heart-on-their-sleeve Chargers are polar opposites. Christopher Gasper says for the Patriots, their experience eases the pressure of the Big Moment. McCabe has the San Diego morning notebook, where the Chargers claim no hard feelings for sack dance copyright violation. In the New England camp, Gasper notebooks some thoughts from understudy Matt Cassel, as he and his fellow Pats prepare for a possible Billy Volek appearance today. Jim McBride likes the Pats to be air traffic controllers in his weekly scouting reports.

The Pats safeties get a closer look from Michael Vega, who profiles the studious James Sanders, and Gasper again, who notes that this time, Rodney Harrison is healthy for the AFCCG.

I admit to a sinking feeling when I saw a Jackie MacMullan column on Randy Moss this morning, but after further review, it could have been worse. The thing even ends up being functional; it lists every brush with the law that Moss has ever had, so if you’re keeping track, you could stick this to your refrigerator or something.

As you know, it is the longstanding policy of this space never to link a Dan Shaughnessy “column”. So you won’t be getting one for today’s “effort”, which candidly, I didn’t read. All I needed to see was the little slug that runs underneath the link on the Globe’s sports webpage. “They are the San Diego Chargers and they have no chance to win today.”

Sigh. Despite several decades as a lead columnist for one of the country’s preeminent sports sections, Dan evidently still does not understand team sports. Hey Curly, if it’s so easy, why don’t YOU get out there and do it? Not that I don’t notice that you’ve set yourself up nicely for a Bill Buckner reference tomorrow if the “no chance” Chargers beat the Pats a week after taking care of your Colts. Because that’s exactly the kind of “writer” you are.

To cleanse our palate, let’s visit with a true sportsman, Mike Reiss, who looks at Tom Dimitroff, who became the Atlanta Falcons GM this week. By the way, Mike killed it with his blog this week. He was hitting line drives all over the ballpark, day in, day out.

Another top blogger, John Tomase, got taken out of the game this week while dad attended to an under-the-weather child, so we hope things are back on track in the Tomase household this morning. JT leads the Herald coverage with a look at Randy Moss in the playoffs. Steve Buckley says the Chargers will face some cold, hard football facts (hmmmm….) in chilly Foxborough today. AP says expect low 20’s.

Karen Guregian has the notebook, where the Pats prepare for anything from the Chargers quarterbacks today. Tomase has his weekly five things to watch, leading with the pass rush of Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips. Visiting columnist Nick Canepa is in the corner, curled in the fetal position, sucking his thumb and mumbling something about the Patriots being “vulnerable.”

At the ProJo, Shalise Manza Young says Tom Brady’s no wide-eyed kid anymore, as he prepares for the fifth championship game of his eight year career, while his defensive teammates contemplate Philip Rivers and Volek. All things considered, SMY is leaning Pats with her analysis. Jim Donaldson is in playoff form with two more columns today - a  visit with Rhode Island native (and Chargers GM) A.J. Smith, and in case nobody had already stated the obvious, JD opines that it would be a shame if the perfect Pats lost now.

Elsewhere, the Courant’s David Heuschkel asks which Chargers are standing in the way of the Pats. Douglas Flynn of the MetroWest Daily News details the extreme makeovers of both teams since their last playoff meeting.

From earlier this weekend, Eric McHugh of the Quincy Patriot Ledger recalls another chilly championship game for San Diego, and looks at Randy Moss’s 0-2 record in conference title games. Christopher Price of the Metro has Junior Seau’s old team as the last hurdle to the Super Bowl, and ponders the always intriguing Laurence Maroney.

Speaking of price, you can’t put one on this decade, at least for Patriots fans. And yet another chapter in the story of this most improbable of football dynasties will be written today. Enjoy. In case you missed it yesterday, here’s a Patriots Buffet Table to enhance your championship day experience.

by the Patriots Daily Staff
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

First, a little housekeeping: we’re having some technical difficulties this morning in posting this week’s Patriots Buffet Table. But please, stay tuned later today for another winning entry from the PD Kitchen Staff.

Edit: And just like that, here it is. With beer cans! Thanks, Kitchen Staff!

The Patriots are poised to entertain the Chargers in the third AFC Championship game to be played in Foxborough, so the Roundtable guys have gathered again for another confab. Let’s listen in.

You are a Patriots fan. Tony Masserotti says you were disappointed that the Colts lost last Sunday. Were you?

Dan Snapp: A little, so it’s sad to say maybe Masserotti speaks for me here. I’ve enjoyed the rivalry, and I’ve always looked ahead to the Colts game on the schedule each year. Plus, I think the way the Patriots played in that November 4th tilt has been vastly underrated. They were gonna kill the Colts in a rematch, so we were deprived of the Peyton face.

Travis Graham: No. It was actually quite the opposite. I don’t know if this is a sign of an “unhealthy” sports fan, but I got more enjoyment out of watching the Colts lose than watching the Patriots win. The path to the Superbowl is a little easier for the Patriots now, but that wasn’t the only reason why I was so happy. I just enjoy watching the Colts lose, especially at home. I have no rational explanation for this.

Bruce Allen: Tony Massarotti (or Dan Shaughnessy) does not speak for me. I also enjoyed seeing the Colts lose, and have no disappointment that they’re not coming to town on Sunday. I think the columnists are upset because they had all their “storylines” lined up in advance and now the Chargers have come and upset the apple cart on them. Happily for the lazy media types, they were handed quite a gift with the Randy Moss story this week. Now they can break out all the character columns and thoughts they had stored up all season without a chance to use.

Greg Doyle: Absolutely not. That is so silly. Why would I care? As a fan, I’m not looking for storylines, I am looking for championships. If the Patriots go on to win one, think anyone will remember they didn’t beat the Colts? Most of these idiots in the media never can seem to keep straight what years they beat the Colts in the divisional round (2004) or AFC Championship (2003) or any of the details accurately of their championship runs and they are going to try to tell us its important now? Too funny.

Dan: A distinction should be made between media reasons and fan reasons. I don’t care about storylines; I want championships, regardless of whom they have to go through to get it. And if they win it without meeting the Colts in the playoffs, there’s no luster lost from the achievement. But fans are gonna feel what they’re gonna feel. I was a little disappointed it wasn’t the Colts because beating them always has an extra oomph to it.

Kevin Thomas: I don’t really buy the idea that it would be a lesser accomplishment to beat the team that was good enough to KO the champs, because frankly, I didn’t think there was any team out there up to that challenge. We knew going in that whoever was coming to Foxborough this weekend was going to be a damn good football team. It will be a moot point after the opening kickoff on Sunday.

In September, the Chargers and Pats had a rematch of their bitter, emotional playoff game last January, and New England won decisively. Is there a difference between the Chargers then and today?

Dan: Adjusting to the coaching changes, the emergence of Antonio Cromartie, the Chris Chambers pickup, and I like Eric Weddle a lot. The team can’t be overlooked, as they have a load of talent on both sides of the ball.

Scott Benson: The first thing that comes to my mind is Cromartie. He was a backup then and now he’s one of their best players. I shudder to think of him with the ball in his hands on Sunday.

Bruce: I think there’s no question that the Chargers have gotten their act together over the course of the season. They’ve gotten stronger as the season has gone along - always a bad thing for playoff opponents. In some ways they’re still the same over-emotional club that explodes at each other as much as at the opposition, and this could be their Achilles heel.

Do the Chargers have a chance to beat the Pats if Phillip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson don’t play?

Scott: Oddly, I can’t imagine any scenario where Tomlinson beats the Patriots. Is he going to run for 150 or hit 200 in total yardage against the Pats? I don’t see it. So Turner (4.2 a carry Sunday) and Sproles (where are these short people coming from?) can cover there. Rivers is freaking me out. How is this sidearm loudmouth completing these passes? So I’m going to say yes, they can beat them without Tomlinson, and no, Billy Volek may not hold up for four quarters against the Pats.

Travis: I’ve been critical of Rivers in the past, but his three quarters of play on Sunday was some of the best passing I’ve ever seen from him. I’d be much happier with Volek taking the snaps and not have to worry about a repeat performance.

Bruce: After last week, you certainly can’t count them out in any situation. While the offense put together some good drives, it was really the defense that won that game for them. With the defense healthy, they can hang in this game.

The Patriots defense gave up 350 yards to the Jaguars, including 270 through the air. The Jaguars possessed the ball for nearly as long as New England did. This performance came on the heels of giving up 35 points to the NY Giants in the final regular season game. Is the Patriots defense good enough to go to the Super Bowl, and win it?

Bruce: Of course it is. They took away the vaunted Jaguars running game, which is what they wanted to do. When they needed to make plays late, they made them. It might’ve been frustrating watching the Garrard throw the ball all over the field on Saturday, but Taylor and Jones-Drew were mostly ineffective. That’s pretty impressive.

Dan: They’re not asked to dominate. They’re asked to take away what teams do best. I think they do that well enough to win.

Scott: I’m resigned to the idea that every single game will be the exact same thing. Get run up and down the field a few times and then dodge a bullet by a sixteenth of a inch. I’m thinking of Dennis Northcutt from last week, as one example. But I do think that they’ll continue to summon the key stops, particularly in the second half, to hold up their end. I do think ahead to the off-season, and wonder about the changes to come. I don’t think the front seven is a particular strength of this team anymore, and it’s no wonder, as some of the most essential members are now 10+ year vets. If they go on to win the Super Bowl, the Patriots will have seemingly gotten everything they could out of this core group. Will they try to wring more, or will this be the off-season they step into the next era?

Dan: There will be a time when we’ll have to face the sober reality of “next year”, and the sadness of the handful of longtime friends who’ll no longer be part of our autumns (an expected retirement or two, I suspect a surprise one, and possibly one with the choice of retirement or a lesser role forced upon him). For now, let’s just drink this up and enjoy it while it lasts.

The Patriots employed their usual spread-shotgun offense on Saturday night, but they also hunkered down for a very productive running game featuring Laurence Maroney. What do you expect to see against the Chargers?

Dan: I can’t imagine seeing much of Maroney up the middle, but I hope we see him in the flat catching screens. I think the Chargers are susceptible to overpursuit.

Travis: I figure we’ll see more of the same. The Pats had a balanced offense working to perfection last week. I think they could have easily put up 50 if they needed to. One of the key contributors for the success of the running game was the (bizarro) Marvin-esque return of Stephen Neal. Neal and Mankins neutralized the Jaguars’ DTs, which let Maroney get a few steps in forward before he had to start making cuts.

A lot will be made of the coaching “mismatch” this week. But the Chargers just got their first two playoff wins in thirteen years, including one that knocked out the defending champs. Is Norv Turner being underestimated?

Dan: They had a great gameplan against the Colts, so good for Norv. He’s got a tough rep to overcome. I still can’t get over what he said back in week two, that he kept the first series script hidden from the team until Sunday morning. Belichick was that much in his head. But he and his coaches beat the defending champs in their own building, despite getting raped by the refs, with key plays from their second string quarterback and third string running back. Norv must be doing something right.

Bruce: Turner is actually getting some criticism for being too conservative after the Colts lost the ball on downs just before the two minute warning, which gave the Colts another shot with the ball. Overall, offense is his strength and he seemed to have a pretty good plan for the Colts defense for most of the afternoon. That being said, he’s a little out of his league in this coaching matchup. The players are a different story, but I don’t think we need to worry about the Patriots being outcoached this week.

Greg: I suppose he is being underestimated, in so far as I do not think Turner is the complete buffoon of a coach he is sometimes portrayed as. He is a decent coach and knows offense. He is not Belichick or anywhere near his level though. I am somewhat more concerned about the weather, truthfully. The cold forecast makes it hard to execute perfectly on offense, so I see that keeping the game close more than the coaching matchups.

Kevin: Do you think there is anything to the idea that the cold weather will negatively affect the warm-weather Chargers? I’m not sure if anyone has ever looked into that question statisticly, but my guess is it would be near impossible to isolate the impact of cold weather over other factors. I do remember that Tampa was winless in cold weather games over a ridiculously long stretch, but of course they almost always stunk until St. Tony arrived. Quickly scanning the box scores, it looks like the last time the Chargers played a game where the game-time temperature was below 32 degrees was in 2004 at Clevelend (a 21-0 win). Before that was at Kansas City in 2001 (a 20-17 loss). So, during the entire Tomlinson era, that’s only two games played in freezing weather. Obviously, not enough to predict one way or the other how it might affect them on Sunday. At the very least, though, it would be a ready-made excuse should things start to turn against them on the field.

Greg: Yes, I expect a lower scoring game than the Patriots have generally played this year. I don’t expect either of the offenses to roll up and down the field. Not to say they’ll be completely ineffective, but I just don’t think the conditions will be condusive to a shoot-out in the thirties. But who knows.

Adding to what I said about Turner, I went back and checked Bill Belichick’s record against Norv Turner. I included any game where Belichick was either head coach or defensive coordinator and any game where Turner was either head coach or offensive coordinator. Their history dates back to when Belichick was head coach in Cleveland and Turner was the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys.

It’s interesting. Belichick initially struggled against Turner’s offenses. Belichick’s team’s lost 3 of the first 4 matchups with Turner’s offenses averaging 26.25 points per game.However, Belichick has turned that around to win 5 straight games against Turner offenses, giving up an average of only 14.2 points per game. Overall, Belichick is 6-3 versus Turner offenses and has given up an average of 19.55 points per game.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Fleeting thoughts while waiting for the AFC Championship Game to return to Gillette Stadium for the first time in four years:

MOSS APPEAL

Attorneys and agents continue to hammer away at each other - and everybody else in the process - over allegations by a Florida woman that Randy Moss committed battery on her sometime earlier this month. Last night, agent Tim DiPiero e-mailed a lengthy counterstatement to the media in response to a statement released earlier by the attorney representing the alleged victim.

DiPiero’s detailed account of his contacts with attorney David McGill in the hours before last Saturday’s divisional playoff with Jacksonville will further buttress the hopes of Patriots fans who hope that Moss is simply the victim of a celebrity shakedown. The statement will just as assuredly be dismissed by those who hope (against hope) that the controversy will somehow derail the Patriots’ attempt at a perfect season and their fourth Super Bowl this decade.

Let’s be honest - that’s all anybody on either side of the latest American insta-controversy cares about.

FLU BLUE

It started with Ryan O’Callaghan and now it’s spread to Matt Light - another championship game flu bug. It’s become a tradition for these Patriots. As you’ll recall, the flu is blamed at least in part for the second half collapse in Indianapolis last January. On the other hand, Tom Brady’s 2005 performance in Pittsburgh while under the weather has become the stuff of legend.

I’m not surprised the flu strain started with the offensive line; those beards must be germ traps.

You have to wonder whether the Sixty Minute Men will have a full hour on their clocks when they take the field on Sunday.

RIVERS TORN?

For some reason, Butch Stearns of WFXT Fox TV has claimed that Philip Rivers has a torn, and not a strained, ACL. One question - how would Butch Stearns of all people know this?

The item showed up on Rotoworld overnight, apparently, along with the caveat that “Stearns isn’t exactly considered the most reliable source in the business.”

Your thoughts, Butch?

It says here that Rivers got off easy. He’s lucky that WFXT didn’t call his teammates, asking if he was dead.

OBJECTS MAY BE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR

I’m getting uncomfortable with this idea that the Chargers come in to Foxborough as a long shot, a poor substitute for the allegedly superior Indianapolis Colts, long considered the worthiest dance partner for the perfect Pats. Obviously, the injuries being nursed by some of their key players don’t help, but I’m pretty sure the Chargers would be getting dismissed even if Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates were whole. With just two days to go, I’m feeling less and less certain that Sunday wll merely be a coronation. Should we be at all shocked if the game ends up as a tense, tight affair? As a great coach once said, they don’t give you those rings, you have to earn them.

By Bill Barnwell
Bill@patriotsdaily.com

At Football Outsiders, our analysis of the game goes in two different directions. The former, and the one we’re more known for, is our statistical analysis of the game using new methodologies. What we also do, though, is something else you don’t see in many other places on the net: Breakdowns of X’s and O’s, primarily by Mike Tanier in his weekly “Too Deep Zone” column on our site. Recently, Mike wrote up a “Blueprint” on how to quiet the Patriots offense, a defensive scheme with guidelines the Jaguars mostly followed on Saturday.

In that same vein, I’m going to spend this week looking at three plays from the Patriots and Chargers previous encounter, and what they show us about how the two teams match up and what they each might do to gain the advantage when the Patriots are on offense. I did not break down any plays where the Chargers were on offense because, really, it’s hard to tell what their offense is going to look like come Sunday. Chris Chambers wasn’t on the team in Week 2, while Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Philip Rivers were all 100%. I’ll be using a similar style to Mike’s diagrams, which means it’s all Paint, all the time, daddy-o.

Instead, I’ll focus exclusively on three plays from when the Patriots were on offense in the game, two of which were successful.

Touchdown Pass to Watson

The game’s opening score came on a six-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Ben Watson early in the first quarter, a play which exemplifies just how difficult it is to stop the Patriots offense. The Chargers line up in their 3-4 scheme, with the impact players being outside linebackers Shawne Merriman (lined up across from Ben Watson on the right) and Shaun Phillips (on the line of scrimmage on the left), as well as defensive tackle Jamal Williams, who warrants a double team from the Patriots in most of the snaps from this game. On this play, he’s handled by Dan Koppen and Billy Yates, who started at right guard this game. Phillips rushes and is blocked cleanly by Matt Light, but Kevin Faulk also chips Phillips coming out of the backfield before running a short curl route.

What makes the play work is the timing of the three receivers on the right, Watson, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss, from left to right. Watson is in man coverage against Merriman, who’s not a superb cover linebacker, but is fast enough to keep up with Watson, unlike most linebackers. A safety is matched up against Welker, while Moss has a corner bumping him at the line. He doesn’t get a clean break on his route and even if he did, he’d run right into Chargers inside linebacker Stephen Cooper and his zone. For those people who pretend that Moss doesn’t give up on plays anymore, he’s literally stopped and is looking around bored when the ball is thrown.

The timing of Watson and Welker, though, make the play work. As Welker runs his in, he turns just as Watson begins his cut in the corner route. Welker’s route effectively picks Merriman without touching him, and by the time Merriman can do anything about it, he’s grumbling with Cooper as Watson is about to catch the game’s opening score. The Chargers actually called a pretty good play against this pass, and they still couldn’t do anything about it. The natural response to that by a defensive coordinator is to blitz.

Merriman Sacks Brady

The second play is a sack of Brady by Merriman on what’s technically a blitz, but is in reality just five men rushing versus what should be seven men blocking. That’s a good scenario for the Patriots, but the failure of Laurence Maroney on the play seals Brady’s fate.

The play call is simple enough: It’s what amounts to a series of zone clearouts, with Moss occupying the safeties while Welker runs his standard in and Watson runs what appears to be another corner. The routes are approximated because they didn’t appear on the broadcast, and there are defensive players missing because they were out of camera shot. The protection is relatively straightforward, with Kyle Brady remaining in on the right side to serve as assistance on Merriman, and Maroney chipping on any penetrators before heading on his merry way into the middle of the field. Again, with only five rushers, this should be an easy blitz pickup for the Patriots.

Let’s look at the important part of the play, the interior rush, a little closer. Highlighted in red are the rushes of Cooper (54) and Merriman (56), who play the big roles in making the sack happen. The play is a series of failures by the protection, highlighted by Maroney.

At the instant of the snap, everyone knows what to do. Light handles the right defensive end (not viewable from the camera angle, but likely Igor Olshansky). Logan Mankins and Koppen double-team Williams. Yates picks up Cooper on a straight bull rush, while Nick Kaczur blocks Luis Castillo (93). Merriman drops off the line of scrimmage, so Brady helps out on Castillo.

The first failure is by Yates. Cooper’s bull rush isn’t designed to get to the passer, but instead to create a hole for Merriman’s twist to get through. Cooper succeeds, pushing Yates back three yards, and creating the diversion, in a sense, for Merriman’s blitz. The other two linebackers, Phillips and Tim Dobbins, drop into short zones so that Merriman’s rush has time to get home.

Merriman shows up with a head of steam about a half-second behind Cooper, a mess Maroney’s assigned to clean up. Instead, Maroney…kinda steps in the mess and walks away. He bumps into Merriman, but to call it a block is to give it far too much credit. It merely slightly deflects Merriman instead of blocking him, the biggest mistake on the play.

As this is going on, Kaczur realizes that Merriman is blitzing, and as a result, that Merriman was really his man to pick up, not Castillo. Kaczur then abandons Castillo in order to try and stop Merriman, but with Brady blocking Castillo from the outside at a poor angle, Castillo easily tosses the tight end aside and follows Merriman right to the quarterback. As for Kaczur, he trips over Maroney, who’s trying to get away from the scene of the crime as quickly as possible. Merriman and Castillo meet at Brady, who never has a chance to throw the ball.

This blitz is one of the things you have to do to beat the Patriots: Namely, get pressure with fewer rushers than the Patriots have blockers. 5 on 7 is normally an offensive advantage, so for the Chargers to get a sack here is a huge coup. The Patriots’ mistakes in the blocking decisions didn’t help, but this came down to the rushes of both Cooper and Merriman, the former serving his role as a de facto tackle perfectly, the latter timing his blitz well and brushing off the mediocre blocker to get to the quarterback before the wideouts can create space for themselves in the level between the short zones the linebackers are in and the deep zones the safeties occupy.

As for Maroney, his failure here is the primary reason why he doesn’t see the field as often as a first-round back with his running talent would expect: His blocking simply isn’t up to snuff. Against the Jaguars, a team with a middling pass rush, that’s not a big deal; against the Chargers, that will be a much bigger issue. Expect to see more of Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans in the backfield on Sunday, and while that will hurt the Patriots some in the running game, if their offensive line opens up holes the way they did in our final play, it won’t matter who’s back there.

Patriots Offensive Line Opens New HOV Lane for Maroney

We also focus on the interior play in this shot. The Chargers line up in what basically amounts to a 5-2 front, with Phillips and Merriman on the line and the two middle linebackers occupying the gaps inbetween the defensive linemen, several yards off. Kyle Brady rests on the hip of Matt Light, while Ben Watson is lined up directly across from Merriman.

The moment of the snap sees a similar pattern to our first two plays. Mankins and Koppen double-team Williams and occupy him from the get-go. That’s an advantage for the Chargers; even if Williams doesn’t make the play himself, that means that there’s now six defenders in the box against five Patriots blockers, giving them a chance to make a play on Maroney before he goes anywhere.

The reason Maroney gets fifteen yards is almost entirely due to two things. The first is the block that Matt Light puts on Olshansky. I drew where the block started, but not where it finished. At the point of attack, with Maroney likely to be running behind him, Matt Light didn’t just block Igor Olshansky. He got underneath him and pushed him a good three or four feet to the left, far out of the play, opening up a huge hole for Maroney to run behind.

There’s still more work to be done before Maroney can get there, though. Kyle Brady’s got a difficult job here, sealing the much-faster Phillips on the edge before he can get into the hole and make a play. Fortunately, Phillips helps out by attempting to take a route around Brady, making the tight end’s job much easier. They both end up in the trash on the left side.

Meanwhile, while the Chargers defensive line (including Merriman and Phillips) is crashing the play by attacking the gaps to their left, the two inside linebackers on the play, Cooper and Tim Dobbins, are filling in gaps to their immediate right. The idea is to fill every gap while taking advantage of the likely Williams double-team to have one of the linebackers run free and make a tackle on Maroney before he gets far. Instead, Merriman’s blocked out of the play by Watson, and Cooper and Dobbins overpursue the play based on Maroney’s first step, which directs him on a sweep behind Watson.

As the inside linebackers begin to dream about a big stop, Billy Yates is quietly pulling to the left side, creating an appetizing hole for Cooper to try and run through to make a play. Unfortunately for him, Maroney’s second step is to the left side, far away from the hole he’s already shifted his body to try and get to. By the time Maroney has the ball, Yates is beyond the line of scrimmage, emerging where Mankins started the play, and he’s blocking Dobbins, who would’ve likely made the play or at least slowed it down if he’d merely stayed in the gap he started in. Cooper, meanwhile, is so far removed from the play that by the time he catches Maroney, the Patriots rusher is in the secondary and about to be taken down by a safety following a 15-yard gain.

This is how the Patriots take advantage of teams who are looking pass on most downs. Randy Moss wasn’t in on this play, but the Patriots don’t hesitate to use Donte’ Stallworth in a similar role when Moss is off the field. Phillips and Merriman take themselves out of the play by pursuing outside lanes to the quarterback, while the counter movement by Maroney dekes the inside linebackers into overpursuit, and the excellent blocking by the offensive line and tight ends results in a huge gain on the ground.

You’re not likely to find anyone as bullish on the usage of statistics in understanding football as we are at Football Outsiders. With that being said, there are countless things that even the best statistics can’t measure, and things that even your standard-issue announcer doesn’t mention during gameplay. It’s the little things that you only pick up from close analysis, Wes Welker’s pick, Stephen Cooper’s bull rush, Matt Light’s blocking sled impression. The Patriots are great at a lot of the big, obvious things, but to make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll need to win a lot of the smaller, subtler battles as well.

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Today, I’m glad I have a “real” job. That usually only happens on payday.

But if I didn’t have a “real” job, I would have assuredly spent all day here at my laptop blogging about a restraining order. My only regret is that my late mother didn’t live long enough to see me achieve this level of success.

As you surely know by now, a Florida woman has petitioned for what is in essense a restraining order against Patriots WR Randy Moss. Moss acknowledges a long-term friendship with the woman and speaks vaguely about an “accident” that he may or may not have been responsible for. Get the story from its original source, and Moss reaction here and here. Or you can get it all from the guy who once again lapped the field with his priceless blog.

As you can imagine, the Internets were indeed players in another instant American controversy. The radio station first broke the news on its website, Mike Florio first gave the story national wings, and sure enough, by midday, Smoking Gun had the docs.   

About the same time, I realized that I haven’t been following a football team this year, I’ve been following a presidential campaign. First there was Watergate, and now….Bimbo Eruption!

Not to minimize what may have happened. Something surely did - but the devil is in the details, I suppose. Safe to say, though - If Moss hurt this woman in an act of violence, he’ll rightfully lose everything he gained in the last eight and a half months. Which is one hell of a lot, in terms of wealth, success, fame and so on.

As assuredly as we expect the worst of our athlete-celebrities, these days we hold the balance of the world to no higher standard. It’s not like celebrity extortion is an innovative concept. Even for a “friend”.

But who knows? Not us. Not yet, anyway. All we have for now is another TMZ meets ESPN meets WEEI craptacular. The beast has been fed.