Both of you guys refer to the conventional wisdom that division match-ups are less predictable and more prone to be upsets or close games than games outside the division.

I wonder if you’ve already heard from your colleague Bill Barnwell on this one, as this is just the kind of old NFL saw that FootballOutsiders likes to challenge… which they did, earlier this year. (Click my name for a link.)

It’s not exactly an exhaustive study, but it is pretty convincing — I think the idea that familiarity makes division games unpredictable is a product of selective memory: we remember all the unusually tough division games, and forget the myriad games w/ predictable outcomes.

I’ve got to say, I really don’t understand your reaction to talk of records, both in terms of the Pats’ setting them and in terms of maintaining an undefeated one. The fervor with which you denounced their importance would make sense coming out of the mouths of a player or coach, but seems a bit much coming from a fan.

I mean, sure, all of use would take a 15-1 reg season w/ a SB win and no records set over a 16-0 regular season, a bunch of records, and a playoff loss. That would be true any day of the week, and twice on Sundays (and twice on the Saturday we play the Giants, too, and any Saturday playoff games.) But why shouldn’t we admit that we want to watch this Patriots team accomplish everything that it’s capable of?

The players need to think that nothing matters but the Super Bowl, because any other mindset could be detrimental toward achieving that goal. As fans, however, we have the luxury of not having to keep our eyes on the prize. So why shouldn’t we want our team to run the table, pick up a bunch of records, and essentially cement itself as the best team in NFL history? I’m not so superstitious as to believe that my fan-greed will in any way affect the outcome of the season… are you?

I guess what I’m saying is that, when it comes down to it, I don’t believe that part of you doesn’t want to see the Pats make history. In fact, you’re a football fan — I think a lot of you wants to see this team not just beat teams, but blow them out, and not just break records, but shatter them, on the way to claiming our 4th Lombardi.

I just think you’ve had a little too much to drink, kool-aid wise. I think you’ve spent so much time listening to the Pats say the things they need to say to keep themselves focused, that you’ve started to believe the rhetoric. It’s sort of like when fans start talking about how injuries are “no excuse” for a loss. Again, that’s the mindset a player needs to have, but any rational observer knows that injuries play a huge role in the outcomes of games.

Maybe we should call this type of over-identification with the players’ mindset “Foxborough Syndrome.”

(If I were Bill Simmons, I’d end with an ill-conceived metaphor in which you’re like a guy at a college party who’s got two hot girls hitting on him — Sure, when you’re at the bar with their ugly friend and she asks you which one you’re interested in, you can’t admit to having visions of a threesome dancing in your pants… but the next day, when you’re hanging with your guy friends, it’s time to fess up, and admit that’s what you were thinking. Good thing I’m not.)