Niner Watch, Week Seventeen

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

I hope you all had a nice Christmas yesterday. But there’s still one present under the tree for draft watching Pats fans, to be opened next Sunday night. Let’s pick up the package and give it a good shake. What do we know? 

One thing we know: the Patriots will have a pick in the top ten of the 2008 NFL Draft next April.

Another thing we know: thanks to the Niners’ Shaun Hill, it won’t be picks two, three or four.

Another thing: no way the Pats pick ahead of the Jets, sadly.

Another thing: the Pats could pick as high as fifth, but they’ll need wins in the final week by the Chiefs, Raiders and Ravens, combined with a San Francisco loss, in order to do so.

Another thing: The Pats will not pick any later than number 9. The Niners are the only five-win team, and among the four six-win teams that immediately trail them in the Race to the Bottom, only Cincinnati has a weaker schedule (after sixteen weeks) than the Niners. In order for the Pats to slip to ninth, San Francisco must beat Cleveland while the Bengals lose to Miami.

Here’s the chart for week seventeen:

So there we are. For awhile, it looked like the Pats would turn the #28 pick in the 07 Draft into Randy Moss and the #2 pick in 08 (which would have had to have been the greatest draft trade ever), but then Hill came along and brought New England down to earth while lifting the Niners off the deck for the first time in their lost 2007 campaign.

Of course, there’s the school of thought that says the Pats are better off this way - the bonus money paid to top five picks can be onerous, and a team ends up paying front-line guaranteed Nate Clements-cash to a player that hasn’t proven anything. To this end, the recent upswing by the Niners may have actually helped the Pats to avoid just such a conundrum.

I suppose. Yet I can’t help but be disappointed that it won’t be the Pats on the clock immediately following the Dolphins when the draft begins next April. The booing by the Jets fans in attendance may have alone been worth the price.

Whatever happens this Sunday, the Pats will have their highest draft pick since they took Richard Seymour with the sixth selection in 2001. There’s still a chance for an upgrade, too - let’s look ahead to this weekend’s pivotal games.

GAMES OF THE WEAK

San Francisco at Cleveland - You made your point, Shaun. Throw us a bone here, will ya? In an oddity, the Browns can still get in the playoffs even with a loss, as long as the Colts beat the Titans in Indy. So I don’t know what the Browns are playing for here - other than staying sharp in case they get the chance to extend their season into next week.

Kansas City at New York Jets - The Jets presently hold the third pick, so you have to wonder what the approach will be here. A win over the Chiefs could drop New York as low as the eighth pick, the way I figure it. The Chiefs are one of the three teams that need to win in order for the Pats to grab the fifth pick. At the least, a Kansas City win will be sure to move the Pats ahead of the Chiefs.

San Diego at Oakland - The Raiders are another team that, with a win, could allow the Pats to move up. But the Chargers are still playing for the third seed in the AFC, which would allow them to avoid a wild card round matchup with the Jaguars. I’m not holding my breath here. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - Same deal here. The Steelers still have an outside shot at the third seed if they beat the Ravens and San Diego loses. Both have 4:15 starts on Sunday, so there will be something to play for through 7:00 p.m. Working in our favor: this is the Pittsburgh Steelers, so maybe they’ll stumble and the Pats will sneak ahead of the Ravens.

Cincinnati at Miami - The Bengals contributed mightily to the plummeting stock of the Pats pick by losing in San Francisco a couple of weeks back. The Bengals stink on the road, and a loss to the 1-14 Dolphins to close yet another underachieving season wouldn’t exactly be a shocker. If Cincinnati wins, though, the Pats will pick no later than eighth.

Let’s see what happens this weekend. We’ll be back with the final edition of Niner Watch next week.

Two-Face Pats

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The New England Patriots became the first team in NFL history to start the season with fifteen consecutive victories with yesterday’s 28-7 win over the Miami Dolphins.

It was also New England’s 18th consecutive regular season win, tying the league record they set in 2004.

The Pats were a bit two-faced in this one - New England’s blue-ribbon offense overwhelmed Miami with four first-half scoring drives before suffering their first scoreless half of the season with a curiously futile effort over the final 30 minutes.

The Pats defense remained steady throughout, locking down Miami’s passing game with a pass rush that sacked Cleo Lemon seven times.

A few leftover thoughts on the morning after:

*The big story this week was Bill Belichick jumping on the Patriots with both feet when they arrived to work on Wednesday, then forcing the team to practice in full pads for the rest of the week, a rare move at this time of the season. The concern was progressively sloppy play over the past few weeks that belied the team’s perfect record. The tightening down of the screws seemed to pay off in the first half yesterday, as the Pats came out crisply and with considerable emotion. Any hope that 1-13 Miami may have had to keep it close and steal one was quickly dismissed with extreme prejudice.

*Which is good, because in the second half, the Patriots offense struggled to possess the ball more than a few plays at a time. After a first half in which he threatened to tie or even break the league’s record for touchdown passes, Tom Brady was intercepted twice and stripped once, before giving way to Matt Gutierrez with four minutes remaining and only one TD pass needed to tie the record Peyton Manning set in 2004. A Gillette Stadium crowd that had waited patiently for the chance to see history would go home unfulfilled.

*Too bad Kevin Mannix retired - if he hadn’t, he’d be making the case for consumer fraud this morning. Which would have been hilarious - a pundit condemning the Patriots for NOT scoring meaningless late touchdowns. You know Kevin would not have disappointed.

*Randy Moss had two first-half scores (#’s 20 & 21) on expert short throws from Brady, putting him one behind Jerry Rice for the all-time mark for touchdown receptions in a season. In the second half, it began to appear that the Patriots were intent on getting both Brady and Moss over the hump. The Dolphins wouldn’t cooperate, surrounding Moss with as many as three defenders on practically every route. Brady tried anyway (emboldened by one second quarter prayer sailed directly through the hands of Lance Schulters, turning a sure interception into an easy 48 yard TD to Jabar Gaffney), resulting in one fugly second half that left the Pats looking like anything but a team pursuing history.

*Due credit for this goes to the Pats offensive line and some horrifyingly bad second-half pass blocking, particularly by tackles Nick Kaczur and Matt Light, who was just abused by a youthful-looking Jason Taylor. Brady was sacked three times and knocked to the ground on several other attempts.

*With the Pats dressing just one tight end (Stephen Spach), they were in three and four-wide formations all day. Once, when the New England defense turned aside a second-half Miami drive in the red zone, the Pats threw three straight shotgun passes from their own one yard line. Each one was incomplete.

*I couldn’t help but wonder why they didn’t try at least one handoff to Laurence Maroney on that possession. Maroney had broken two first-half runs of more than 50 yards (the second, a 59 yard burst on 3rd and 1 than ended in the end zone, was the longest of his career) on the way to his best game as a pro. I’m glad for the boost in confidence for the second-year man, but I’m even happier for some Pats run blocking that was damn near perfect on those plays. Heath Evans threw two high-profile blocks that allowed Maroney to race untouched into the Miami secondary, a thrilling sight.

*As expected, the Pats activated Troy Brown for their final home game of the season, and the legendary veteran dropped back on several Miami punts. He shockingly allowed one to strike him in the facemask, resulting in the Pats first turnover of the day (and an oh-so-brief benching), but later, a 28 yard sprint through coverage recalled the best moments of his brilliant career.

*As noted above, the Pats defense avoided the second half malaise of their offensive counterparts. Yeah, they allowed the Fins to average nearly 5 yards a carry, but most of that with a three score lead and the Pats guarding against a quick score. Otherwise, they held Lemon to under 50% passing and just 170 yards on nearly 50 attempts. Mike Vrabel, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Richard Seymour and Junior Seau all had sacks, with pro bowler Vrabel notching the highest regular-season sack total (11.5) for New England in nearly 20 years. Granted, the Pats will face much tougher tests down the road, but for now, their defense looks on track to begin the playoffs.

*Of course, there is the little matter of a perfect regular-season first. The Pats run defense will most certainly be tested in that one.

*That’s it for today. For all of us at Patriots Daily, have yourself a Merry Little Christmas, one and all. See you next week.

Sunday Links

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The Patriots will try to become the first NFL team to notch a 15-0 regular season record this afternoon when they host the 1-13 Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.

It’s been a big week for our friends the Fins, who avoided a winless season with a thrilling overtime victory over the Baltimore Ravens (again, the perfect team to hold the distinction) on Sunday, and began the next chapter of their history on Wednesday when the legendary Bill Parcells agreed to become the club’s director of football operations. The worst team in football is on a roll.

For some reason, this all put me in a reflective mood, thinking of our team, and the days not too long ago when they would struggle to win even one game, let alone fifteen. And how that all ended the day Parcells would return to football for the very first time, as coach of the (I couldn’t believe it) New England Patriots.

It gave the team instant credibility as a professional operation, which is something pretty precious, as the Dolphins have discovered. It gave the team hope, for at last the lost Patriots had an unflinching guide that could lead them from the wilderness.

Here’s the thing I loved the most about Parcells, as a fan - from his first day on the job, there would be no more fooling ourselves. No more delusions about the task at hand. If the Patriots lost, there would be no more cursing the fates, lamenting the breaks, blaming the refs, or anything else. If the Patriots couldn’t win a game, it would be because they earned it.

On the other hand, if the Patriots began to win, it wouldn’t be by destiny, or by answered prayer, or by happy accident - it would also be because they earned it, Monday through Sunday, with equal parts preparation and perspiration. It would be real.

Honest to God, I had been a die-hard Patriots fan for 26 years before I truly learned any of that. I have seen the game and the team in a completely different light ever since, which has only made me love them both even more.

Yeah, things happened years later that would cast the football messiah in a harsh light. Rightfully. And Parcells continues to be as mercurial as the weather, which can be alternately amusing and infuriating, depending on which way the wind is blowing.

Still, if you love the game, how can you not love Bill Parcells too?

Speaking of coaches that have taught us plenty about the game, our colleague Dan Snapp passes along this link from Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star. One of the best and brightest sportswriters in the country has an amusing - and instructive - Bill Belichick anecdote from Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez.

There’s still Christmas shopping to be done (I know, that’s pathetic), so here’s a quick run through of the morning papers.

In the Globe, Jim McCabe talks with the 1972 Dolphins’ sub-committee for graciousness, co-chaired by Earl Morrell and Jim Mandich. Jackie MacMullan visits with Pro Bowler Mike Vrabel. Christopher Gasper looks at some more league records on the line today, and says a forecast of rain might ground the Pats again. Jim McBride likes the Pats by 17, and Mike Reiss considers the job ahead for Parcells.

In the Herald, John  Tomase claims that number 15 is already in the bag for the Pats. I’m pretty sure they have to play the game anyway. John adds some quick hits, and five things to look for today. He also has Scott Zolak on Parcells, while Karen Guregian wonders if the rain will put the ball in Laurence Maroney’s hands again.

Lastly, in the ProJo, Shalise Manza Young talks with Mercury Morris, who hasn’t been this famous for 30 years, at least. This guy is nuts - what does “you can only get your first home run once,” mean exactly? Jim Donaldson says he wants Scott Pioli to be his personal shopper this Christmas, and Willie Andrews tries to break SMY’s ‘Up Close’ jinx. Her subject last week, defensive back Eddie Jackson, was waived shortly after he was profiled. Careful, Willie.

I’ll be back after the game. Enjoy your Sunday.

Niner Watch, Week Sixteen

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Shaun Hill didn’t get the memo, apparently.

The Niners’ third-string quarterback, making the first start of his six-year NFL career, continued his efficient play (107.4 quarterback rating over the two weeks) to lead San Francisco over Cincinnati for its fourth win of the season against ten losses, dropping the Patriots from the 2nd pick to the 5th if the 2008 NFL Draft were held today.

The 3-12 St. Louis Rams, with losses to Green Bay and Pittsburgh since our last Niner Watch, presently have the inside track to the number 2 pick, followed by the Jets and Falcons at 3-11.

Because the Niners can now finish with as many as six wins, this week’s chart expands to fifteen teams. Note that we’ve included the remaining schedule for each of the Failing Fifteen in the far right hand columns.

So the question now is what Patriots fans can expect for the pick that New England acquired last April (along with the fourth round choice that turned into Randy Moss), in exchange for the 28th selection in the ‘07 Draft.

San Francisco has two playoff teams on its remaining schedule. NFC South champ Tampa could still grab the third seed over West champ Seattle, though they need some help because the Hawks have a head-to-head advantage. Cleveland could clinch an AFC wild card spot with a win over the extremely accomodating Bengals this weekend, but could still be vying for the division title when they entertain the Niners in Week Seventeen.

Point being that with two motivated opponents ahead, it looks as though San Francisco is likely to finish with a 4-12 final record. If that’s the case, the Patriots will do no worse than the 5th pick they hold today. And by the way, that’s not a bad return for last year’s 28th pick.

But can they do better? Sure, but they have to hope for a complete collapse by the 6-8 Arizona Cardinals. The Cards will host both the 3-11 Falcons and the 3-12 Rams over the next two weeks. If the Cards - losers of two straight - go belly up over the holidays, the Pats could find themselves as high as #3 when it’s all said and done.

It’s possible, I guess - after all, Arizona has lost twice to the Niners. Further, playing that scenario out - if the 3-11 New York Jets also find a way to win one more game (the home finale with the 4-10 Chiefs is the best bet), the Patriots could wind up with that 2nd pick after all.

The Bengals showed us last week that these grand plans can all go awry when a turd surfaces in the punch bowl. Will the Cardinals cooperate and actually lose two consecutive home games to teams with a combined record of 6-23?

It seems unlikely. If I had to guess today, I’d see a top 10 that looks something like this (ties broken by strength of schedule, as usual):

1. Miami (1-15)
2. St. Louis (3-13)
3. Atlanta (3-13)
4. San Francisco (4-12)
5. Kansas City (4-12)
6. Baltimore (4-12)
7. Oakland (4-12)
8. NY Jets (4-12)
9. Chicago (5-11)
10. Cincinnati (6-10)

Maybe Arizona manages to lose to the Rams, who haven’t played that badly of late, and the Pats upgrade to the 3rd pick (and the Cards vault to the top ten).

How bad can it get? The way I see it, if Hill continues to revive San Francisco and the Niners upset both the Bucs and Browns, as many as nine teams can finish ‘ahead’ of them in the Race to the Bottom. Still not a bad return in exchange for the 28th pick, but a far cry from the second pick in the draft.

Of course, there remains a number of other possibilities, which is why we include the chart. Have at it.

College Scout, Bowl Edition

logoby Greg Doyle
greg@patriotsdaily.com

The College Bowl season gets under this week and I could not be more excited. Scores of entertaining, fun games between generally good teams with many great players can be found from now up until through the first week of the New Year. So sit back, enjoy and take in some college football. Here at College Scout we’ll try to review each of the Bowl games and the plan is to do so in three parts. As always, we’ll do so in terms at looking at potential draft prospects and, on occasion, how they may or may not fit with the Patriots. Part One will look at the Bowl games from December 20th through December 23rd.

Thursday December 20, 2007

The Poinsettia Bowl - Navy (8-4) vs. Utah (8-4) (9:00 PM EST ESPN): Two good teams face off here in this annual Bowl held in San Diego at Qualcomm Stadium. Utah has a six game Bowl winning streak on the line. Navy coach Paul Johnson has taken the Georgia Tech job so will not coach this game. Ken Niumatalolo, who was offensive line coach and assistant head coach, takes over for Johnson. Because of service commitments, among other things, Navy is not traditionally a program that sends a lot of players to the NFL. But let’s take a look to see who they have who has a shot, as well as Utah.

Navy FB Adam Ballard (#22): Ballard is an option fullback like current Patriots fullback Kyle Eckel. He has good size at 6′1″ 223 and is a nice inside runner. Not just a blocker, he’s run for over 2,000 yards in his Navy career. Broke his leg in Navy’s bowl game last year and required surgery, but was back for spring practice. Shows good speed, but pass catching ability is questionable as he has only caught a handful of passes with Navy. Has not played in a pro-type offense. Has played special teams. Like Eckel, there is potential here but a long way to go. He has to learn a NFL offense and needs to bulk up because he lacks the pure size and strength of Eckel. Isn’t quite as good a runner as Eckel either. But he is a good athlete and is worth a look as a project.

Navy KR Reggie Campbell (#7): A pure burner who has played a little bit of everything for Navy, including running back and wide receiver. Is Navy’s leading receiver this year. But where he really excels is kick returns and that is where he has a chance in the NFL. Tiny player at 5′6″ 168, but has great speed and elusiveness. Explosive on returns and that may get him a look.

Utah S Steve Tate (#28): An under-the-radar player who deserves a look. Been extremely active for Utah and put up some really great numbers, including being their leading tackler. Comes up and stops the run, but also has been solid in coverage. Seems to make plays and is a smart player. Two issues are his age, he’ll be 25 at the time of the draft, and his size as he only checks in at 5′11″ 195. A late round pick at best, but he could stick with a good camp somewhere.

Utah DE Martail Burnett (#93): A big, fast defensive end at 6′3″ 262 and reportedly runs a 4.68/40 which is a great time for a guy his size. Shows pass rush ability and led Utah in sacks this year. Great athlete, he has a chance to be a high pick and may really move up at the combine. You could see the Patriots taking a stab at converting him to outside backer, but more likely he is a Robert Mathis-type defensive end.

Friday December 21, 2007

The New Orleans Bowl - Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5): (ESPN2 8:00 PM EST): Florida Atlantic makes its first bowl appearance ever under head coach Howard Schnellenberger, who once won a National Championship as head coach at Miami. Memphis rebounded from a 2-10 season to make this bowl this season. Let’s take a look.

Florida Atlantic S Taheem Acevedo (#9): Their team leader on defense, he has perfect safety size at 6′1″ 220. Known to be a good tackler, has also made 9 career interceptions. His production and size will get him a look, but has a lot to prove coming from a low-profile school.

Memphis QB Martin Hankins (#13): Hankings is not going to be a high draft pick, but he’s worth a look and will be in somebody’s camp. Has had an excellent college career, including career 87-43 TD/INT ratio. Started at Southeastern Louisiana before transferring to Memphis, where he has been the starter for two years. Hankins is one of those guys who has had been very productive in college, seems to be smart, has a decent arm but doesn’t overwhelm you in any area. Has average size and needs to commit to bulking up if he is to make it in the NFL. May be able to stick on a practice squad and eventually make a team.

Saturday December 22, 2007

The Birmingham Bowl - Southern Mississippi (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3): (ESPN2 1:00 PM EST): The always solid Southern Mississippi program takes on the Cincinnati Bearcats, who had an excellent season, including some big upsets, under first year head coach Brian Kelly.

Southern Mississippi LT Chris Clark (#75): A good All-Conference USA tackle who may attract the interest of the Patriots as a second day type as he is strong, a good worker and also a good enough athlete to get out in space as the Patriots insist upon from their linemen.

Southern Mississippi DT Martavius Prince (#97): A good college player with nice size who ould convert to a 3-4 end if the Patriots took him. Known as a very smart player who studies the game. A little bit undersized for tackle. Shown some special teams ability by blocking kicks at key times. Can pass rush and had 6.5 sacks this year. Good prospect the Patriots should consider.

Cincinnati RB Greg Moore (#48): Splits time with fellow senior Butler Benton, but Moore is the better pro prospect of the two. Has NFL size at 6′2″ 225. Rushed for over 1,500 yards in his career. Mediocre speed which could indicate he should bulk up a bit and be a fullback. Will have to prove himself as a blocker and on special teams to make it. Did okay as a pass catcher this year and shows some potential. Possible 7th round pick.

Cincinnati RB Butler Benton (#23): Splits time with Moore. Not as big as he is, but checks in at 210 lbs as well. Put up over 1,700 yards in career and isn’t completely lost in the passing game either. A bit faster than Moore, but not as powerful. Like Moore, may be picked at the end of the draft.

Cincinnati DE Anthony Hoke (#12): A quick pass rusher who disrupted opposing offenses all season long. Finished with 12 sacks and another 7 quarterback hurries. A 6′1″ 245 pass rushing end who could be perfect as a 3-4 outside linebacker for the Patriots. Also reportedly runs a 4.55/40, so if that is confirmed at the combine, Hoke could become a name that could start racing up the charts. In an interview, he once said the quarterback he most hopes to someday sack is Peyton Manning, so that should endear him to Patriots fans.

Cincinnati OLB Angelo Craig (#82): A sleeper who the Patriots should take a look at. A 6′5″ 245 lb. guy who has played both end and linebacker and had a pretty good year this year. Had only started 2 games prior, but showed talent this year and contributed 3 sacks and 11 quarterback hurries. Has played special teams. This is a guy who is a true sleeper and not likely to attract much attention, but would be a nice undrafted free agent to look at if he does well in workouts.

New Mexico Bowl - Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4) (4:30 PM EST ESPN): It would appear New Mexico would have the homefield advantage in this one that points a potent Nevada offense versus a good New Mexico Defense.

Nevada LB Ezra Butler (#56): An All-WAC linebacker, Butler has good NFL size at 6′2″ 248. Was on the pre-season Lombardi watch list for the nation’s best linebacker. He’ll get a shot in the NFL and is a good prospect for the Patriots inside if he can show he is intelligent and has good speed and strength when tested. If the 4.55/40 speed reports prove accurate he could be a first day pick.

New Mexico WR Marcus Smith (#4): Set the Midwest Conference on fire this season with 86 catches for 1,039 yards. Has excellent size at 6′2″ 212. Smart receiver with good hands. A mid-round talent with average speed, his size makes him a nice slot receiver possibility.

Las Vegas Bowl - BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6) (ESPN 8:00 PM EST): Just what the world needs, Mormons in Las Vegas. I hope Mandalay Bay and The Palms are busy locking up the milk in preparation for this one. In any event…..

BYU LB Kelly Poppinga (#46): The Cougars middle linebacker, he was their leading tackler this year. A full-time starter for the first time this year. Has two brothers who have played in the NFL. An athletic guy with a good motor and good strength and size, he deserves a look. Could be a good sleeper for the Patriots, especially since he has played in coverage.

UCLA DE Bruce Davis (#44): A really good defensive end who at 234 lbs will play outside linebacker in the NFL. Has racked up 29 sacks in his career including 12 this season. Made some All-American lists in his career. Father is Bruce Davis who was a tackle on two Raider championship teams in the 80’s. Extremely quick and has a lightning fast first step as a pass rusher.

UCLA CB Trey Brown (#23): Had a very good senior season with 5 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries. A bit undersized, but good in coverage and sticks his nose in there in run help. Has a ton of experience in a good conference. Shows an ability to make plays. Could interest the Patriots in the later rounds.

Sunday December 23, 2007

The Hawaii Bowl - Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5) (ESPN 8:00 PM EST): An offensive shoot out in what should be perfect Hawaii weather conditions. This could be an entertaining game and we all saw how the Boise State coach isn’t afraid to pull out all the stops as he did last year in the bowl season.

Boise State OT Ryan Clady (#79): Only a junior, but a dominant left tackle who already projects as a first round choice, so he very likely will come out early for the 2008 draft. Has dominant strength and size, but combines it with amazing athletic ability. Could be a franchise left tackle for a decade or more. May interest the Patriots even though their line is pretty set. He is that good and could eventually move Pro Bowler Matt Light to right tackle if the Patriots looked in this direction.

East Carolina RB Chris Johnson (#5): A very productive runner who ran for 1,200 yards this season, averaging 5.8 per carry and scoring 16 touchdowns. Not terribly big, but gets it done and runs hard. Has excellent speed and was a sprinter in high school. Ran for over 2,700 yards in his career. Showed good ability to catch the ball with 34 receptions and did a lot with them, averaging 14.6 per catch. Returned kicks, which will help him, and brought one back for a touchdown. Could be a first day pick. Remains to be seen if he can take the pounding as a full-time back in the NFL or if he is more of a third down/kick returner/change of pace type.

Outside Foxborough - The Injury Effect

logoby Bill Barnwell
bill@patriotsdaily.com

The Miami Dolphins came into this season with high hopes following the acquisitions of quarterback Trent Green, wide receiver Ted Ginn, Jr., and outside linebacker Joey Porter over the long NFL offseason. Replacing the departed Nick Saban was offensive guru Cam Cameron, who’d successfully crafted the Chargers offense into one of the best in football. With Ginn and Chris Chambers stretching defenses deep, Porter and defensive player of the year Jason Taylor coming off the edges, and Green bringing a stability and authority that the quarterback position hadn’t seen since the Marino days, things were looking up for Dolphins fans.

14 games later, the Dolphins are the laughingstock of football, a team that induces tears from their owner upon winning their first game of the season, with a pass thrown from one Chargers castoff, Cleo Lemon, to another, Greg Caramillo. Cameron is likely one and done as a head coach, Chambers has ironically been shipped to San Diego, Ginn’s failed to make an impact at wideout, and while Taylor’s put up 10 sacks, Porter’s only mustered 3.5.

More than all that, though, it’s injury which has struck the Dolphins at their core. Green suffered a severe concussion in Week 5 that’s called his career into jeopardy. Ronnie Brown, who had been among the NFL’s best backs, went down two weeks later. That was also middle linebacker Zach Thomas’ last game of the year. Other starters have missed time: Vonnie Holliday, Travares Tillman, Channing Crowder, Matt Roth, and David Martin have all missed time with injuries this year.

On the other hand, the Patriots have enjoyed some remarkable health this season. Losing Richard Seymour for the first six weeks of the year would have been a problem for most teams, but the combination of Jarvis Green and Mike Wright (himself now gone for the remainder of the season) did an admirable job in his stead. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ long-term injuries consist of Sammy Morris, Wright, and Rosevelt Colvin, who managed to play for most of the season. Ben Watson is the only other injured player of note on the roster.

Obviously, the differences between the Patriots and the Dolphins are not a series of injuries. That being said, would this be the same Patriots team if their starting quarterback, best skill position player, and core middle linebacker had all gone down for the season by Week 7? Obviously not. Injuries are often discussed when it comes to why a team’s had a disappointing season, but when they have a great one, staying healthy is almost never one of the reasons you’ll hear bandied about as a reason why.

And, well, they should be. The effect of injuries on a team can be huge, and while everyone knows they’re bad, there’s been little in the way of research on how much they hurt, which hurt more, and what causes them.

Last year for this very website, I analyzed the injury rates of Patriots defensive backs and attempted to find reasons or trends in the data to explain this injury rash that had broken out. I later updated and expanded my findings in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, the annual published by me and my colleagues at Football Outsiders. With that as a starting point, I’ve done much more research into the trends of injuries and begun to quantify the likelihood and effects of injuries. The results, if confirmed with more data, could be staggeringly important: They could guide teams on how to construct their rosters, while offering gamblers and fans likely picks for teams that will rebound or decline in a given season.

We’ll be doing a two-part feature on the injury effect here on Patriots Daily. This week, I’ll be looking at the year-to-year effects of injuries, why they seem to happen, and what the results are on teams. Next week, we’ll get more specific, looking at offenses and defenses and what injuries are more important than others.

First, the data: The NFL injury reports, from 2001 to 2006, as compiled by Football Outsiders intern Chris Povirk. Injuries were weighted with a simple metric that measured the effect of an injury: A player who was listed as “Out” or placed on IR was scored with four points for each week he was in that role; a player who was listed as “Doubtful” three, “Questionable” two, and “Probable” one.

Following that, we compared the injuries to what we determined were the team’s 22 offensive and defensive starters heading into the season, its “projected” starters. For example, in 2006, although Tony Romo ended up being a huge part of the Cowboys’ success, Drew Bledsoe was the expected starter going into the season. We focused specifically on their injury rates, since the majority of a team’s salary cap, training camp, and focus is placed into those starters. This differs from last year’s research, which looked at a team’s 53-man roster equally.

We then split up the data by position and squad (which will be discussed next week) and compared it to wins and DVOA, our metric which analyzes teams based upon their play-by-play performance after correcting for down, distance, situation, and opponent. (For 2006 teams, in order to analyze their success this year, we used DVOA through 15 weeks, and did not include this year’s wins on their research.) This analysis was not only confined to one year, but we examined a team’s health from year-to-year and compared it to injuries from year-to-year. We used correlation coefficients, which gauge the relationship between two variables, to analyze whether there were significant comparisons between the injury data recorded and a team’s performance. When looking at the correlation coefficients, remember that football relationships tend to be less significant than those of most other comparisons because of the myriad variables involved, so what would be a small relationship in other fields is actually a decent relationship when it comes to football.

The answer to that question is, unequivocally, yes. Over the six seasons that we looked at, injury rates had a dramatic effect on a team’s amount of wins, DVOA, and the change of the two from season to season.

Comparing a team’s injury rate to the number of wins they had in that season, we found a moderate relationship of -.22, indicating that there’s a negative relationship between injuries and wins. That shows some importance to injury rate, but that injuries aren’t a death knell to a team. Where the relationship becomes more intense is when we look at the difference in a team’s wins from a season ago. The correlation between injury rate in a given season and the difference in that team’s wins from a season before is -.38, or nearly twice as strong. When we correlate the difference in a team’s injury rate from year-to-year and the difference in that team’s wins, we get a whopping -.50 as the correlation, a huge indicator.

That’s borne out when we look at the injury outliers in our data. The most injured team in our study were the 2004 Tennessee Titans, who collapsed at the end of their multi-year run by going from 12 wins down to 5. Number two were the 2006 Cleveland Browns, who, of course, have been one of the surprise packages of this season.

On the flip side, the healthiest team we saw across the data were the 2003 Dallas Cowboys. They won ten games that year after winning five the year before. The year after, with a more normal injury rate, they went 6-10. Second were the 2002 Bills, who went 8-8 after going 3-13 in 2001; in 2003, with an average amount of injuries, they went 6-10.

Another issue that comes up is, as you can see, that teams tend to revert back to an average amount of injuries: Simply put, there’s no team that stays snakebitten with injuries. The correlation between a team’s injury rate and the same metric from the previous season is 0.02, or virtually nil. A team that’s extremely banged-up might get hurt a lot the next year, too, but they’re just as likely to stay healthy.

On the other hand, a team that does see a dramatic change is likely to see their fortune change with it. The biggest injury shift involves the Chicago Bears. A healthy Bears team in 2001 went 13-3; the next year, as the most injured team in football, they went 4-12. The year after, they got healthy and got back up to 7-9, but then suffered a serious injury bug in 2004 and stayed at 7-9. Finally healthy in 2005, they went 11-5.. The 2006 Browns were the second-largest shift, and they lost two more games that year than in 2005, while the third-placed 2004 Titans lost seven games more, as we mentioned.

That 2004 Titans team was a veteran team that had been through several years together before collapsing, which of course, brings up some comparisons to this year’s Dolphins, one of the older teams in football. It obviously brings up age as a possible indicator of likely injury. Surprisingly, though, age has little to do with the equation.

Taking the average age of the 22 starters and comparing it to injury rates reveal a correlation of 0.04: Again, virtually no correlation whatsoever. It should be noted that the Dolphins defense is significantly older than the Dolphins offense, and the correlation between defensive injury rates and age (+.18) is much higher than that of offensive injury rates and age (-.02).

Comparing injury rate to DVOA shows that the changes aren’t just superficial and related to lucky or unlucky wins. The correlations are similar to those we saw when looking at the relationship between wins and injury rate, but slightly weaker. For injury rate in a year and a team’s DVOA, there’s a -.16 correlation. If we compare injury rate to the difference in DVOA from the year prior, though, the correlation is -.4, and if we then compare the difference in injury rate to the difference in DVOA, it’s -.46. In short, there’s a very real and dramatic decrease in both the success and performance of a team when they get hurt more.

Looking at the 2006 season, this data would’ve given us several teams to highlight as potential flukes or sleepers because of their injury rates. One of them was the aforementioned Browns, who have stayed healthier and done much better than expected. The Jaguars were the second-most injured team in football, and have also rebounded with a nice year. Third was Tampa Bay, another team who’ve done well somewhat surprisingly. Our DVOA projections pegged all three of these teams as likely to improve.

On the other hand, there are several teams we’d expect to struggle with injury. First and foremost would be the Rams. Although we didn’t expect them to lose their entire offense, there was a strong likelihood that they would lose one or more of their key players to injury, and at times this year, they were without their starting quarterback, running back, and left tackle. Number two, surprisingly, would be the Cowboys, who illuminate the fact that injury rates aren’t infallible. They’ve stayed very healthy and had a superb year. Number three would be the Houston Texans, who will be at least one game better than they were last year, and number four would be San Diego, who have seen their performance drop some, although that likely has more to do with Norv Turner than injury.

Next week, we’ll analyze offense and defense and find out who’s more likely to get hurt and what the results are.

Eight Men In

logoby Dan Snapp
dan@patriotsdaily.com

They can’t call the Patriots a “team without stars” anymore. With eight men chosen for the Pro Bowl yesterday - seven of them starting - they’re manufacturing stars at a Dallas Cowboys rate.

Wait, scratch that; the Cowboys have 11 players going. America’s Team, Leading the League in Smiles.

Pro Bowls are always mixed blessings. You like the honor but you hate the game.

When you’re a kid, and you think every player on your team should go, it obviously means the most. For some years, it was the sole consolation, seeing probably one Patriot get honored in an otherwise cruddy year. You wait for that moment in the third quarter when your guy gets in, watch him run on a couple snaps, and that’s that. How sad the days we sat waiting for Rich Camarillo to punt.

Any awe the game once beheld has long since worn away. Yeah, it’s still nice to see the recognition, and you have to be happy for the Patriots first-timers Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel and Asante Samuel. It’s too bad the game never lives up to the honor.

There are other shortcomings, too. For the team, a Pro Bowl honor might be the first step out the door for that player. No longer is he your little secret, your diamond in the rough. And the way the voting always seems to work, for some players once you’re in, you’re in every year. Matt Light earned his second straight trip, and it’s easy to imagine Mankins and Wilfork earning multiple honors. So what’s Wilfork’s asking price now when it comes to renegotiation time?

The game itself, we could all do without. Face it, it’s the least enjoyable of any of the all-star games, league-decreed vanilla rules make it the least competitive, and you mostly spend your time hoping nobody get hurt in the meaningless affair.

The league needs to rethink this, from the marketing suicide of playing it a week after the season’s denouement all the way down to the garish Hawaiian shirts they’ve got the coaches wearing. Bill Belichick in a Hawaiian shirt makes one appreciate the hoodie.

Can’t we just have the honor and say screw having the game? Still send them to Hawaii, have an event, sign a few autographs, drink a few mai tais and come home. I suppose they could still have some sort of competition. Anything but beach volleyball.

Backgammon perhaps?

I suppose the thing to hope for is the day when your team’s players tire of the trip. They say how honored they are by it, but they need time to heal. The honor then goes to some alternate from some doormat team, whose young fans can now wait eagerly for that big third quarter series when their guy finally gets a few snaps.

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