Comments on: Outside Foxborough – The Injury Effect http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/ Where Every Day Is Patriots Day Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:41:45 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Bill Barnwell http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-2287 Bill Barnwell Thu, 20 Dec 2007 19:49:37 +0000 http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/#comment-2287 The 2003 Patriots are in the top ten for most injured teams in the timeframe, actually. The 2003 Patriots are in the top ten for most injured teams in the timeframe, actually.

]]> By: CoreyCroom http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-2286 CoreyCroom Thu, 20 Dec 2007 19:08:32 +0000 http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/#comment-2286 This information is not suprising to me, and seems crucial to NFL GMs. I feel like Piloi and Belichick might know this already, accounting for some of their management edge over other NFL teams. Injuries are probably the strongest random element determining success or failure in the NFL. One of the most under-rated aspects of the 2003 Pats squad that won the SB was overcoming a rash of key injuries to LB and OL early in the year and hanging in long enough to get healthy down the stretch. Without Brady, my speculation is this 14-0 team would likely be in the 7-7 to 9-5 range. This is a perfect hypothetical to imagine the huge impact of a random injury. Unfortunately, only one reality exists, so we can't play out the hypothetical 2007 Pats with Cassel at QB for a control to the thought experiment. Bottom line, be prepared to minimize the impact of injuries as an NFL GM in the future. Two Jabar Gaffneys might truly be better than one Chad Johnson when random injuries are taken into account. This information is not suprising to me, and seems crucial to NFL GMs. I feel like Piloi and Belichick might know this already, accounting for some of their management edge over other NFL teams. Injuries are probably the strongest random element determining success or failure in the NFL. One of the most under-rated aspects of the 2003 Pats squad that won the SB was overcoming a rash of key injuries to LB and OL early in the year and hanging in long enough to get healthy down the stretch. Without Brady, my speculation is this 14-0 team would likely be in the 7-7 to 9-5 range. This is a perfect hypothetical to imagine the huge impact of a random injury. Unfortunately, only one reality exists, so we can’t play out the hypothetical 2007 Pats with Cassel at QB for a control to the thought experiment. Bottom line, be prepared to minimize the impact of injuries as an NFL GM in the future. Two Jabar Gaffneys might truly be better than one Chad Johnson when random injuries are taken into account.

]]> By: Dan http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-2285 Dan Thu, 20 Dec 2007 18:49:58 +0000 http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/#comment-2285 Interesting stuff, Bill. Where did the 2003 Patriots fall in the list? They've been talked about often as a team that won despite an inordinate number of man hours lost to injury. Also, I considered Chad Scott a significant injury. It happened in training camp, so it's easy to forget, but he was having a good camp and looked to be challenging as a starting corner. Interesting stuff, Bill. Where did the 2003 Patriots fall in the list? They’ve been talked about often as a team that won despite an inordinate number of man hours lost to injury.

Also, I considered Chad Scott a significant injury. It happened in training camp, so it’s easy to forget, but he was having a good camp and looked to be challenging as a starting corner.

]]> By: Nopointe http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-2284 Nopointe Thu, 20 Dec 2007 16:38:36 +0000 http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/12/outside-foxborough-the-injury-effect/#comment-2284 Interesting stuff. I don't know that you'll be able to single out the effect of injuries. Those good to bad and bad to good teams may have suffered a different amount of injuries in the 2 years, but they also were facing a schedule made harder (or easier) in the second year as a result of their record in the first year. You'd also hope a bad team has the benefit of a good draft in that second year, although with the way some teams draft thats far from certain. Interesting stuff.
I don’t know that you’ll be able to single out the effect of injuries. Those good to bad and bad to good teams may have suffered a different amount of injuries in the 2 years, but they also were facing a schedule made harder (or easier) in the second year as a result of their record in the first year. You’d also hope a bad team has the benefit of a good draft in that second year, although with the way some teams draft thats far from certain.

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