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Niner Watch, Week Twelve

November 20, 2007 By Scott Benson 6 Comments

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Hey, was that Niner Watch I saw mentioned in Mike Reiss’s mailbag today? Mike, you shouldn’t have!

It was an appreciated mention – and timely, as it turns out. Big doings on the old bottom feeder chart this week. Last Sunday, the surrogate mother of the Patriots’ first round draft pick, the 2-7 San Francisco 49′ers, reached down deep and lost a HUGE matchup with the 1-8 St Louis Rams – at home, mind you, as if the loss itself wasn’t enough – to vault themselves from last week’s fourth spot to the NUMBER TWO PICK IN THE NFL DRAFT, if it was held today.

Even better, the 1-8 New York Stoolies somehow managed to beat the Pittsburgh “We’ll stop them, America” Steelers in the Meadowlands, meaning that the Jets dropped from (last week) the pick just ahead of the Niners to (this week) the one three slots after them. I am still checking nfl.com every twenty-minutes to make sure this wasn’t a mistake.

I’ve told you about my dream before, since Spygate – the Pats go undefeated, win Three Games to Glory, sign Randy Moss to a series of incentive-laden one year contracts (“$750,000 if you catch a touchdown pass between your knees.”), AND, just to send a disconsolate, embittered nation completely over the edge, the Pats get the number one pick in the draft, just ahead of the Jets.

So far, so good. Getting that first pick might be rough, in light of the historically awful Dolphins, but otherwise….I have a dream today.

Anyway, now we have the Niners, Rams, Raiders and Jets all tied at 2-8, but they get stacked on the basis of the second tiebreaker (after winning percentage), which is strength of schedule. Here, the Niners have all the advantage they need: their opponents have a meager .463 combined winning percentage, followed by the Rams at .506, the Raiders at .519, and the Jets at .538. Are these percentages going to swing that much to erase San Francisco’s advantage? The Niners’ remaining opponents are road games in Arizona (an improving 5-5) and Carolina (4-6, and they are horrible at home. This one worries me), then home games (where San Francisco is 1-4) with Minnesota (4-6), Cincinnati (3-7), and Tampa Bay (6-4), before a road finale in Cleveland, where the Browns could be playing for a playoff spot. A lot of promise in that slate.

The Bengals and Falcons, both 3-7, are still threats to jump into that first pool of teams, though the Bengals have the easiest remaining schedule of all and might have to deliberately lose in order to stay in the race.

We say goodbye to a handful of teams at the bottom of our list – the Cards, the Texans, the Broncos and the Eagles – who went to .500 with wins this week. Unless they all lose six straight, its unlikely they’ll be in contention for the top few picks in the draft. We’ll be leaner without their dead weight.

As Warner Wolf says, let’s go to the videotape!

I marvel that I can put a spreadsheet right on the Internet. As Warner says, come on!

SMALLEST GAMES OF THE WEEK

Jets at Cowboys – In Dallas, four days after a major upset at home? I don’t expect the Jets will do anything other than keep the pace on the big spreadsheet for another week. I’ll pull for another shocker, but I fear it will be in vain.

Niners at Cards – I’m encouraged by the Cardinals’ two game romp over the Lions and Bengals, which got them back to 5-5. Now, just one game off the pace in their division, Arizona has a home game against a team that has lost eight straight. As Warner (not Kurt, but Wolf) says, come on!

Dolphins at Steelers – No. I won’t say it. I won’t. It would be too, too much to ask for.

Raiders at Chiefs – Despite this matchup, the Raiders have a horrifyingly tough schedule the rest of the way (.627). They will be a factor.

Thanks for shopping with us and thanks again to Mike for the support. Be sure to check back next week.

Filed Under: News Tagged With:

Inside Gillette

November 20, 2007 By Christopher Price Leave a Comment

logoby Christopher Price
chris@patriotsdaily.com

First impressions can be misleading.

For James Sanders, his introduction to most Patriots fans came on the night of Nov. 5, 2006. The defensive back, who had been taken by New England in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of Fresno State, had occasionally popped up on the radar screens of area football fans over the first year and a half of his pro career, but it was mostly as a special teamer. He was mostly a blank slate — Sanders had just 19 tackles and one interception as a rookie. At most, he was seen as not much more than a potential backup for Eugene Wilson, who had only missed four games to that point in his career and was considered to have a solid hold on the safety spot, while veteran Rodney Harrison was entrenched at the other safety position.

But that night, with Wilson out and Harrison suddenly sidelined because of a first-quarter injury, the 5-foor-10, 210-pound Sanders was forced into action. Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning immediately zeroed in on the relatively green defensive back, who struggled in coverage much of game as the Colts took home a 27-20 win.

As first impressions go, it wasn’t much. However, that game marked a turning point for Sanders and Wilson: Since then, Sanders has clearly improved in all phases, and has played his way into the starters’ role. He hasn’t missed a game since that evening, and has done everything possible to wrest the position away from Wilson, who has played in just seven games since that night.

According to Head Coach Bill Belichick, that game was the approximate point where Sanders went from spare part to invaluable contributor.

“I think the biggest jump for him came last year between about the middle of the season to the end of the season,” Belichick said, reflecting on the last year and a half of growth for the Fresno State product. “I think he came on last year and played … had a very good roughly second half of the year, including in the playoffs, both in the running game and the passing game [and] continued to help us on special teams.

“This year, I think he pretty much picked up right where he left off at the end of last year,” Belichick added. “He has consistently been out there. He works hard. He gets better every day and he’s been on the field every day, so that enables him to take those meetings and that coaching and performing on the practice field and carry it over into the game.”

He’s been on the field every day. It’s something you can’t say about Wilson, who looked like an All-World defensive back as a rookie in 2003. He started 35 of his first 38 games in New England, and was named to ESPN.com’s All-Rookie Team. But the Illinois product has struggled with ankle and hamstring injuries since. Meanwhile, Sanders has steadily progressed through the system, gaining more and more playing time. With Harrison sidelined because of suspension for the first four games of the 2007 season, Sanders started at strong safety, but since Harrison returned — and Wilson has continued to struggle with injury — he’s seen the bulk of the time at free safety.

Sunday night, Sanders took another giant step forward. He led the team with four tackles, creeping up to the line several times to deliver big hits. Highlights included a crushing blow on Buffalo’s Anthony Thomas that resulted in an early three-yard loss, as well as a big hit on Bills’ running back Dwayne Wright that jarred the ball loose, resulting in a fumble that was returned by Ellis Hobbs 35 yards for the final touchdown of the night.

But more importantly than grasping the physical aspect, Sanders has clearly mastered the mental aspect of playing defensive back in the Belichick system.

“He understands the defense, he understands our adjustments and how the defense has to shift based on what the offense does before the snap,” Belichick said of Sanders, who has 45 tackles this season. “That’s part of a safety’s job, to make those adjustments and communicate those to the corners or in some cases the linebackers.”

“That’s an important part of his job, and he does it well,” added the head coach. “He’s very good at it and he works hard at it. He’s one of the hardest working players on the team, and we have a lot of them, and he’s up there.”

FIVE THINGS TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK

1. “Spygate” fallout. The Eagles were one of the most quotable teams in the wake of the Patriots’ videotaping scandal, with several players telling the media — many of who were joking and many of who were ultra-serious — exactly what they thought of New England, and not all of it was positive. It’ll be interesting to see how much of it will be used as bulletin-board material by the Patriots, and how much will be discussed in the postgame Q-and-A’s.

2. Do the Patriots prepare for starting quarterback Donovan McNabb or backup A.J. Feeley? In what’s become as much a Philadelphia tradition as cheese steaks and the Mummers’ Parade, McNabb suffered his annual November injury last Sunday. This time, it was an ankle and thumb that slowed him Sunday against the Dolphins. His status remains a colossal question mark, and even trying to read between the lines via injury reports will be useless, because Philadelphia Head Coach Andy Reid told the media Monday that McNabb doesn’t need to practice this week to start against New England.

3. How the Patriots go about trying to stop Brian Westbrook. Philly’s do-everything running back — at his best, a Marshall Faulk clone — is the sparkplug for their offense. The 5-foot-10, 203-pound Westbrook had a career-best 148 yards rushing against Miami on Sunday, and is the fifth-best rusher in the league entering last night with 849 ground yards. In addition, he already has 518 receiving yards, tied for a career-best season output. (He’s been hobbled lately by knee and abdominal injuries, but is likely to play Sunday night.) If New England can contain Westbrook, they can significantly slow down the Eagles’ offense.

4. If Mike Vrabel can do something that hasn’t been done since 1995. Remarkably, no New England player has registered double-digits in sacks in a season since Willie McGinest finished the 1995 season with 11. (Since then, McGinest got to 9 1/2 twice and Vrabel got 9 1/2 once.) Vrabel enters Sunday’s game against the Eagles with 9 1/2 sacks. He’s a pretty good bet to reach double-digits Sunday night, especially against a Philadelphia offensive line that has allowed 32 sacks this season, 28th-worst in the league as of last night.

5. Randy Moss. Just as he demands constant attention on the field, his week-to-week performance within the context of the New England offense also makes him impossible to ignore. Moss continues his campaign to be the first wide receiver in the history of the league to win MVP honors, entering Sunday’s game against the Eagles with 66 catches for 1,052 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. In the three occasions he’s faced the Philly defense, the Eagles have managed to hold him under 100 yards receiving each time — his best day against Philadelphia came in 2001 at the Vet, when he caught seven passes for 95 yards and a touchdown in a 48-17 loss to the Eagles.

STAT OF THE WEEK

22. The Patriots are a whopping 22-point favorite against the Eagles if Philadelphia starts A.J. Feeley at quarterback Sunday night, according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba. Seba said the Patriots would open at -18 if Donovan McNabb is behind center.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“I saw the real 81. I think he had like 170 yards and four touchdowns. Yeah, I saw the real 81. But I don’t really get into that. I have a job to do, and that’s to go out and block and catch balls. To try to go out there and try to duplicate or do something better than a receiver did on Sunday is not my game, and I don’t want to do that.” — Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss on whether or not he saw Terrell Owens finish with four TDs earlier in the day against the Redskins.

Christopher Price is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the Patriots since 2001 for Boston Metro. He’s served a contributor to ESPN.com, SI.com, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post and The Miami Herald. He’s written “The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower,” and can be reached at chris@patriotsdaily.com.

Filed Under: Columns Tagged With:

Monday Morning Leftovers

November 19, 2007 By Scott Benson 4 Comments

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Some barely-cold leftovers from last night’s late-nite 56-10 Patriots win over the Bills:

*Hard to ask for any more from the Patriots last night, needless to say. Even after what amounted to a two week layoff on the top of the world, they were physically and mentally crisp from the start, and once Randall Gay intercepted JP Losman on Buffalo’s first possession, they were never in danger. This may end up being one of the best teams in NFL history (meh, nine other teams have gone 10-0 since the merger), but it may already be one of the best coaching jobs ever. Ever seen a team more focused than this one?

*If Tom Brady doesn’t win NFL MVP this year, he never will. It’s an odd emotion to have after all this time, but I still can’t believe this guy plays for the Patriots.

*Ditto Randy Moss. I’ll just say again – I cannot imagine the Patriots offense without Randy Moss, not now, not next year. There will be some high drama around here when the Pats and Moss decide on his future with the team after the season.

*It wouldn’t be a week in the NFL without suspicion that the Patriots are running it up. It occurred to me last night; are the Patriots supposed to keep taking Brady and other key players out in the third quarter every week? That doesn’t seem like the best way to get ready to win a championship. Buffalo didn’t help any, with a defensive effort that looked positively Washingtonian.

*The Bills, winners of four straight, were hoping to take a big step towards a Wild Card last night, but this just in….no. We thought their offense was the problem. Granted, they’ve been hammered by injuries, but they aren’t beating anybody of consequence with that defense. Brady, Moss and the others did anything they wanted, and you could see the will seep from Buffalo’s D. Early. And the Bills were outplayed on special teams last night, which is a match up they have to win.

*Anyway, as far as taking the foot off the gas, it seemed to me that’s what Belichick did in the fourth quarter last night, with Matt Cassel in and the Heath Evans/Kyle Eckel dive play on every down.

*Speaking of Evans and Eckel, the running back situation looks kind of bleak this morning. In a game where many expected him to be featured, Laurence Maroney played a half – sporadically – and then left with a foot injury. No evidence yet exists that says the Pats can count on Maroney for anything, no matter how long this particular injury keeps him on the shelf. Something else will come along. Kevin Faulk left with a head injury that didn’t appear to be serious, but if the veteran can’t go for awhile, the Pats are down to Evans and Eckel. Understatement: this bears watching over the next few days.

*More great coaching: Adalius Thomas was a veritable no-show against Indy, shocking fans that expected him to be a difference-maker, especially against the Colts. Last night he shows as an end in a four-man defensive line, and other times as a standup outside linebacker, where he pounded away at the Bills pocket. At inside linebacker, he hasn’t been able to take over like he did last night, and for the first time we really saw the combination of size, speed and strength that made him a Pro Bowler. The lesson here is you can never tell what’s going to happen next.

*Which Sanders was better yesterday – Bob, or James? New England’s was flying around on run support like never before. It’s looking more and more like the Pats really hit on this fourth rounder from the 05 draft. On a defense full of veterans he’s in command as much as anyone.

*It’s only natural that all the attention goes to Belichick, Brady and Moss, but the foundation of it all may be the play of the team’s linemen. There weren’t more than a handful of plays last night when they didn”t win their individual and collective battles, on both sides of the ball. Special note should go to Russ Hochstein and Billy Yates, who filled in for Stephen Neal and – as usual – didn’t miss a beat. Jarvis Green had his best game in weeks for the defense.

*The Pats kickoff coverage teams were outstanding against one of the best return teams they face. How about a hand for Kelley Washington? He hasn’t played much at receiver, but he’s found a role he can play, and he’s putting in the time to be successful at it. Says a lot for a player that was supposed to be an underachiever.

Filed Under: News

The Sunday Links

November 18, 2007 By Scott Benson Leave a Comment

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

You don’t suppose we could flex tonight’s game back to a decent hour?

It’s an old complaint but at this writing, it really feels like the Pats-Bills game is, well, tomorrow or something. This prime time stuff makes for a long day, especially coming off a bye week.

No worries, though – we still have all the papers to go through.

In the Globe, Mike Reiss and Christopher Gasper have the news that Stephen Neal will miss the game with the re-aggravation of a shoulder injury that has already caused him to miss three games this season. The Patriots have managed to get through some o-line nicks with no trouble, in large part because of the reliable play of Russ Hochstein, who will step in at right guard tonight.

Gasper says that the Bills have been beaten, but unbowed.  Reiss checks with Bob Kraft, who’s pulling double duty today, before wondering about the San Diego Chargers in his league notes. Jim McBride likes the Pats by three scores tonight.

Bob Hohler does investigative duty on the duty of Kyle Eckel, who got bounced from the Navy while he bounced back and forth between the Dolphins and Pats. I’m not sure what the point of this story is, really, but I’m pretty sure drawing a fairly straight line from Eckel’s conduct, or lack of it, to the deaths in action of 14 Naval Academy alumni since his graduation is a bit much.

Is Eckel running for something, by the way? Because this Swiftboat-ish piece would really be relevant if he was.

Over in the Herald, John Tomase is bundling up for a chilly homestretch, a time that the Patriots are traditionally at their best (40-8 post-Thanksgiving record under coach Bill Belichick). Jeff Horrigan says a key to the Pats success has been their offensive line, who have been the best pass protectors in the league this season. Dean Pees tells Karen Guregian to save a little credit for the pass rush of the defensive front, which has helped to keep big plays off the scoreboard for New England.

Tomase adds five things to look for tonight, and a package of Quick Hits that includes a tribute to Rodney Harrison and an update on Bill Polian’s obsession with the ‘Furries’ subculture. That one’s a little disturbing. I really think all these things with Polian – the explosive temper, the outbursts of random violence, the Anthropomorphism – are just symptoms of the root issue; his apparent raging alcoholism. 

Lastly, it occurs to John that the Patriots might end up with a pretty nice draft pick courtesy of the 49′ers. Somebody should pick up that idea and run with it, maybe track it week-to-week.

In the ProJo, Shalise Manza Young ponders Tom Brady at 30, better than ever. Bill Reynolds says the Perfect Patriots will face two teams every week – their opponents, and the 1972 Miami Dolphins. I suppose this is true to an extent, but doesn’t this seem like a self-fulfilling prophecy? Who’s going to make sure Shula and the rest will be suited up for battle every week?

Robert Lee has Dick Jauron, who gives a primer on how to deal with the press when it comes to the New England Patriots. Respectful, even at times reverent, saying nothing that can be in any way used against him. No little wiseass slip, no ‘sad day’ moralizing, just deference. Nobody will remember a single thing he said, which alone makes him a more formidable opponent than most.

SMY likes the Pats in her game day analysis, and closes out up close with Rodney Harrison, who is still talking about being an NFL official despite his embarrasing suspension earlier this year.

Elsewhere, David Heuschkel of the Courant looks at the Pats prime-time bid to go to 10-0. Douglas Flynn of the MetroWest Daily News reminds us that the Patriots will meet a better Bills team than the one they encountered in September. Eric McHugh of the Quincy Patriot Ledger has more on the Pats defense, the stingiest third-down unit in the league. Mike Lowe of the Maine Sunday Telegram concludes that the only way to go undefeated is to take ‘em one at a time.

Thanks for stopping by, and check back after the game for the early returns.

Filed Under: Media

College Scout

November 17, 2007 By Greg Doyle 1 Comment

logoby Greg Doyle
greg@patriotsdaily.com
 

Saturday November 17, 2007

Some big college games on the docket today. BCS bowl and conference championshp berths will be decided. It’s also rivalry week, so let’s take a look around.

Ohio State at Michigan (ABC Noon): Annually one of the huge games in college football, this one will decide the Big 10 championship and a probable trip to the Rose Bowl (unless Ohio State gets back in the National Championship picture). Ohio State won the last game here at Michigan, but hasn’t won two in row there since 1979 and 1981. Lets look at some of the potential draftees in the game.

Ohio State Fullback Dionte Johnson (#49): A pure blocking fullback who almost never touches the ball. Has 1 carry this year and no pass receptions. Checks in at 242 lbs and packs a wallop as a blocker. Pepper Johnson’s son, so may get a look with the Patriots for that reason. Has NFL blocking skills, but has displayed little else. Speed is questionable and with 5 career carries and no receptions, hasn’t demonstrated he can be the versatile type fullback the Patriots look for. Has played a lot on special teams, so that helps his cause. Keith Byars is his godfather.

Ohio State LB Larry Grant (#6): First year as a starter, but has shown himself to be an active playmaker at linebacker. Has 42 tackles, 9.5 tackles for a loss, 5 sacks and an interception. Has been a leader on the very good Buckeyes defense. Has also blocked two kicks, so shows special teams aptitude. May be a bit small for the Patriots scheme at 226 lbs, but has the height to put on more weight at 6’3″. Good playing speed.

Michigan Wide Receivers Mario Manningham (#86) and Adrian Arrington (#16): These two are both juniors, but one or both could come out. Manningham is better right now. He could come out as he led Michigan in receiving as a sophomore and has built on that with an even better junior year. Currently has over 1,000 yards and 11 Touchdowns. Averages over 17 yards per catch. Has had knee problems in the past, but has been healthy this year. Very fast (has run a 4.39/40), good height and smooth. Could use some more bulk but should be a first round pick. Arrington is bigger at 6’3″ and also very talented. First year as a full-time starter. You’d think if Manningham comes out, Arrington would stay to be “the man” for a season. However, because he redshirted, he is a senior academically so he may not accept his last year of eligibility. Has over 700 yards and 6 touchdowns this year. Has had discipline problems. Ran a 4.46/40 in high school.

Michigan Safety Brandon Englemon (#31): Surprise starter for the Wolverines who was expected to be beaten out by younger players, he’s Michigan’s second leading tackler. Has 2 INTs and 1 forced fumble. Off and on starter in earlier seasons. A smart, good sized, but somewhat slow player who probably lacks the talent to be an NFL starter. May be able to stick on a roster as a backup if he displays good special teams ability. He has played those at Michigan.

Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 PM ABC): The 8-3 Penn State Nittany Lions could get themselves into a good bowl with a win here while 6-5 Michigan State needs a win to assure themselves of an invite somewhere.

Penn State QB Anthony Morelli (#14): Has been a good overall player for Penn State but hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Once Penn State fans loudly pined for the highly recruited Morelli, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype. By all accounts, has had a reasonably good senior year. Has 17 touchdowns versus 9 interceptions. But has been more of a competent game manager than a difference maker. Can probably play in the NFL. He’s smart and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, along with improving his accuracy this year. But he doesn’t wow you or win games on his own. Probably a mid-round choice at best. Very good size, but not real mobile. Won an NFL punt, pass and kick competition as a 10 year old.

Michigan State RB Jehuu Caulcrick (#30): Big, 255 lb. running back who is somewhat reminiscent of former Michigan State runner T.J. Duckett, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. Only averages 3.9 per carry, but that is brought down by goal-line carries and he is very good in that area, with 20 touchdowns this year. For his career has over 2,200 yards, including over 700 this year. Big bruising runner who lacks speed and cutting ability. Decent in passing game, none the less. Born in Liberia. An NFL prospect, but isn’t a great runner.

Michigan State DE Jonal Saint-Dic (#94): Yes, this poor guy’s name is really Saint-Dic. His first year as a starter, he’s opened some eyes with 10 sacks. Would most likely play linebacker in the NFL as he weighs in at 250 lbs. Plays exclusively down now, but has the speed to convert. Will have to learn, which will make him a late round prospect. But he has some talent to develop into at least a decent NFL player, possibly more. Reminds of former Patriot Tully Banta-Cain at this stage of his career.
 
Boston College at Clemson (7:45 PM ESPN2): This game will decide which team goes to the ACC Championship game.

Boston College QB Matt Ryan (#12): We’ve talked about Ryan before. He is a big-time college QB, smart with a good arm. Tough as well. But he isn’t perfect and has shown some warts on occasion. Seems to make mistakes on short throws over the middle and locks in on receivers on those routes too often. Still, he is a very good prospect and should be a first or second round NFL pick.

Boston College S Jamie Silva (#44): I really didn’t think Silva was an NFL prospect at the start of the year, but he has been so outstanding he deserves mention. He is tough and a solid tackler, but slow in coverage. He isn’t a great athlete, but he is a football player and smart. If there’s room for the Raymond Ventrones of the world in the NFL, there may be for Silva as well. Tough guys who are smart, can tackle, direct a defense from the safety spot and play special teams sometimes stick.

Clemson LB Nick Watkins (#32): Their best player and leading tackler on defense. He is fast and a sure tackler, but would not fit with the Patriots. He is more of a 1-gap player and could not play in a 3-4. Should be a solid NFL player for some team, however.

Others to Watch: Over on ABC at 8:00 PM, check out Texas Tech Safety Joe Garcia (#49) as he and the rest of the Red Raiders take on Oklahoma. A big 217 lb. safety who is also Texas Tech’s leading tackler, Garcia likes to hit and is great at stuffing the run. Can improve in coverage, but a hitter. At Noon on ESPN, Connecticut takes on Syracuse. Watch #24 for Connecticut, receiver Larry Taylor. While he plays receiver, his real chance to catch on in the NFL is as a kick returner. A diminutive 5’6″ 173, he has only 20 catches this year and has been an average college receiver at best. With blazing 4.37 speed, he has been an excellent punt returner for the Huskies. That is his chance to stick. He’s exciting, watch him on kicks. Elected team captain, which is something the Patriots like to see.

Filed Under: The Draft

Patriots Roundtable

November 16, 2007 By Scott Benson 2 Comments

logoby the Patriots Daily Staff
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

The Pats are back in action this weekend with a Sunday night flex game that gives them a total of six such prime-time contests this season.

Their opponent this week is divisional rival Buffalo, who has quietly won four straight to put itself, after nine games, in the mix for a wild card playoff spot.

This is going to be a huge day for the apparently-suffering Bills fans, who plan to set up camp at the Ralph sometime tomorrow to ensure that they’re loaded enough for their close up Sunday night. I’m sure Tim Russert is going to be particularly sloppy.

We can’t go in there unarmed. We at least need a defiant rap or something. Maybe Pats fan D-Major, who is currently delivering “In the Razor” over in our media player (to your right; just hit start), can help. Look out, Buffalo.

Meanwhile, let’s see who made it back from bye week in one piece. Men?

It was a tumultuous bye week. Indy dropped a second straight game, and might have lost Dwight Freeney for the season. The Steelers survived a scare vs. the Browns, but now control their destiny in their division. How do you see these things playing out?

Scott Benson: I think the Steelers are going to be there as they have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way out (opponents are a combined .381, even including the 9-0 Pats). I think the Colts eventually come around, but will it be in time to save a first round bye? I think the Freeney thing doesn’t have to kill them – they still have a capable defense without him. For Indy, its all about getting their legs under them again on offense, it seems to me.

Travis Graham: I’m not sure how much the loss of Freeney will hurt them on defense. I’ve always felt that he is overrated because of how he takes himself out of plays from over pursuing, but after seeing him get in the backfield and pressure Brady so many times in the game two weeks ago, it has to make a difference in the Colts’ ability to disrupt an opposing offense. The key for Indy is to get at least two of their three receivers back for the Jacksonville game in two weeks. I can’t see the Colts winning their division if it’s just Manning, Wayne, Addai and a bunch of JAGs on offense for here on out.

Kevin Thomas: I am now a true believer when it comes to the Colts defense. They seem to have finally figured out and bought into a scheme that works, have the personnel to pull it off, and at least since January have been playing team defense at a level that is much better than the sum of the individual parts. I don’t think the loss of Freeney is really going to upset that. I fully expect that the Colts will get back on track and win the division running away. It wouldn’t surprise me if they win the rest of their games.

I don’t view Pittsburgh as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, simply because I don’t see them as capable of beating Indy and New England in successive weeks in the post-season. But they are a good enough team to maybe steal the game at New England if a few breaks go their way. If that were to happen, then the last 3 weeks would suddenly become mighty interesting for the Patriots, who in all likelihood would need to win out to preserve the #1 seed over the Steelers.

Of course, if the Patriots do beat the Steelers, then home field would be basically locked up on December 9th, making those last three games essentially meaningless exhibitions from a Patriots perspective. If that’s the situation they find themselves in, I do think they will lose at least one of those last three games. That is the paradox of the perfect 16-0 regular season: the closer they get to it, the more likely they will drop a game that really means nothing to them.

Greg Doyle: The Steelers lost to Arizona and we’re supposed to take them seriously? They will win that division and are a pretty good team, but they’re not the Patriots. The Colts are done. They’ll limp to 11-12 wins, but they are the 2005 Patriots right now.

Dan Snapp: I’m naturally preconditioned to seeing the Ben Roethlisberger as this lunkhead fraud, and the Steelers as more pretender than contender. But then they do something, you know, impressive. Nah, it’s an illusion. I don’t agree, Greg, on the Colts. They’re still better than any of the other threats in the AFC, including the Steelers. They’re not as good as the Patriots, but they know how to win tough games. I think they’ll re-emerge as the No. 2 seed.

The Bills have been quietly building a nice little team. Winners of five of their last six games (and one they should’ve won against Dallas), the Bills might be the toughest game left on the schedule. Cold-weather night game in Buffalo, playmakers at RB and WR, gritty defense, excellent special teams and well-coached. How do the Bills rank among AFC contenders?

Dan: The injuries are going to screw up their chances this year. A couple more playmakers, and they’ll be a threat in the near future.

Scott: They’ve got a chance at a wild card, though the best teams they’ve beaten are the Ravens and Bengals. But you have to play the schedule, and I’ll give them this: in a lousy division, they at least know enough to close out games against the Jets and Dolphins (3-0 there). They’re good enough that they don’t find a way to screw that up. To me, this means they’re coming along. Are they up there with the Jaguars and Titans for the wild card? I don’t think that’s true at this point (those teams are battle-tested, comparatively), though that statement could soon live in infamy.

Kevin: The thing that most impressed me about the Patriots against the Colts was that they truly lived up to that whole “60-minute men” slogan. They simply wore out and beat down the Colts, under the absolute worst of circumstances, and played their best football to close out the game. It was a similar thing down in Dallas earlier in the year. Even with the crowd and the weather and everything that might be in Buffalo’s favor early on, there is no way this young Bills team is going to be able to hang with the Patriots for four quarters. No way.

Let’s break it down. What areas of the Bills defense can the Pats exploit? What matchup problems do they present?

Scott: The Bills get their share of interceptions and they have done very well in scoring defense (9th), but people seem to be marching to ball up and down the field on these guys, run or pass. Zero production as far as pass rush. So they’ve done well to stone teams the way they have. The Pats nearly put 500 yards on them last time, but unlike the Bills other opponents, they closed out the drives with touchdowns, not turnovers. This may be a good chance to get Maroney more involved; he broke a hundred on them in September on only 19 carries. One thing: they want to be careful with the football, especially early: they can’t let the partisan Buffalo crowd get too cranked up. You don’t want to let a bunch of angry drunks to take over and start influencing the outcome of the game; look at the damage the Colts do with just one angry drunk.

Travis: The Pats are going to catch a huge break this week with Aaron Schobel (Jason Taylor of the North) out this week. He seems like he always has the Pats’ number. With the lack of depth in the defensive line, I also think that Maroney could be getting a lot of touches. Especially with some rain/snow in the forecast.

Greg: The Bills are a good team, but the Pats should be able to both run and throw on them as they did in Foxboro. I think one of the biggest assets of the Bills defense is the conservative nature of Dick Jauron and the offense. They control the clock and play field position football. That will be harder to do without Marshawn Lynch this week and the defense will be exposed as not as good as the pretty low point totals they have given up.

Dick Jauron said this week he’s sticking with JP Losman at quarterback. Marshawn Lynch, meanwhile, is hobbled with an ankle injury. What can we expect from the Bills offense vs. the Patriots defense?

Greg: Not a lot. Unless the Patriots absolutely mail this one in, I can’t seeing them scoring more than 13 tops unless the Patriots have a rash of turnovers in their own end or give up defensive or special teams scores.

Scott: Aside from Lynch, they have been brutal, especially in the passing game. Now they don’t even have Lynch. I would say they better hope their defense gets a bunch of turnovers. That’s their best offensive strategy. Lee Evans is the best remaining weapon if Lynch doesn’t play, and he needs to get behind the secondary to really hurt you. They may give up some yardage themselves, but the Pats secondary has been pretty good about keeping people in front of them.

This could be an exciting special teams matchup, as both teams have flourished in this area. What can we look for here?

Dan: Kind of a sad statement, but this might be Buffalo’s best opportunity to score points.

Scott: I’m trying to think if I’ve ever seen a better punter than Brian Moorman. I don’t think I have. And Lindell is pretty solid himself – he’s only missed two field goals all year, and they were both over 50 yards. Then there’s McGee, who has made a play or two against the Pats in his time – you know, let’s just change the subject. I don’t like where this one’s going.

Travis: It’ll be interesting to see how much participation Chad Jackson has in this area. I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a shot at returning kicks to take some of the workload off Hobbs.

Filed Under: Games, Media, Opponents, Roster Tagged With:

Niners Stand Pat

November 16, 2007 By Scott Benson 4 Comments

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

Week Two here on the Niner Watch and we’ve already had a change at the number one spot in the dash for the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft.

The Miami Dolphins took another step towards immortality this week by heroically blowing a fourth-quarter lead to Buffalo, at home, to become the last winless team lying in the Race to the Bottom of the NFL.

The St. Louis Rams, possessors of top spot last week, suffered a tough-luck win over the Saints, which I’m sure their management regrets already. This is why the Jets were glad they had the week off. Things happen, people get carried away.

Honestly, Our 2-7 Niners deserved a better fate than to simply remain again in the fourth slot, what with their note-perfect 24-0 shutout loss to Seattle. What more can they do?

The 49′ers get the edge over the proud, fearsome tradition of the Oakland Raiders, also playing at a .222 clip, through the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker.

The Niners have a big edge in over the Raiders, Falcons, Bengals and Vikings (all one game back) in that tiebreaker, the first after winning percentage. That makes me think they may have some staying power.

There’s another nine teams on our list this week, all currently in competition for tail end of the top ten and the rest of the top fifteen picks. Strangely, many are involved in division races anyway.

Let’s take a look at this week’s Big Board:

What concerns me about the 49′ers is their strength of schedule going forward – they have the second easiest schedule when it comes to remaining opponents (a combined winning percentage of .397). They could slip up and win one or two of those. Comparatively, the Jets face a .619 schedule, the Raiders a .584, and the Dolphins a .524. Grim as far as any hope for the top spot.

What to watch for this Sunday?

Smallest Games of the Week

Rams at Niners – Believe me, this game is HUGE. If the Niners lose here, that moves them ahead of St. Louis in next week’s rankings, no worse than #3. The Rams are reeling, having found to way to win.

Steelers at Jets – Jets can get to number 2 with a loss and a St. Louis win. The Jets are heavily favored to get blasted by the Steelers in Giants Stadium. I know what you’re thinking – it’s too much to hope for. It’s too much.

Dolphins at Eagles – Rookie quarterback this week…..in Philadelphia. Cam Cameron is pushing all the right buttons in Miami.

Raiders at Vikings – I’d love to see the Raiders win this, and it strikes me that Minnesota is exactly the kind of place that such a thing could happen. Although, the last time an AFC West team went to the Metrodome, they got ran out of the building. I think we have to prepare for a 2-8 Raiders team, right on the Niners tail.

This is just like when those couples get some woman to carry and birth a baby for them. Sort of. Right?

Filed Under: News Tagged With:

Outside Foxborough: Jason Peters – One of the Ten Most Valuable Properties in Football.

November 15, 2007 By Bill Barnwell 2 Comments

fo.jpgBy Bill Barnwell
bill@patriotsdaily.com

When Marv Levy took over the Bills for the second time, it seemed like the last gasp of an owner who could barely remember what the face of success looked like. After Levy’s first offseason, many observers panned his moves as the decisions of a man who the game had passed by, specifically referring to the selections of Donte Whitmer and John McCargo (widely seen as reaches) and the signing of Peerless Price in free agency as the team’s #2 wideout. One of those observers was, of course, your friendly Football Outsiders correspondent.

Since then, Levy hasn’t been perfect, but he’s shown that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve. Whitmer’s been excellent at safety, while the jury is still out on McCargo, and Price has been a relatively awful part of the passing game. Levy appears to have cut bait on the right time at Takeo Spikes, and drafted an excellent replacement for London Fletcher in Paul Posluszny, but the team found no replacement for Nate Clements and has struggled defensively because of it.

The most money, though, has been poured into the offensive line. The Bills’ big signing this offseason was an unsexy one in guard Derrick Dockery, who got the Steve Hutchinson starter contract ($49 million) at about 85% of Hutchinson’s performance level. They also added former Raider Langston Walker and versatile journeyman Jason Whittle to shore up a line that had several holes in it.

The irony of all this is that at the most important position on the offensive line, the Bills have discovered a player who’s better than all the money they threw at their problems this year, while doing so at a fraction of the investment.

Jason Peters’ college career was an inauspicious one. He played tight end at the University of Arkansas, catching 28 passes for 300 yards over three seasons. His junior year saw him catch 21 of those 28 passes, and he was named All-SEC Second Team following the campaign. He left for the pros following the season.

He went unselected in the 2004 draft, and signed with Buffalo as a free agent, sticking with the team through training camp. He saw time at both tight end and tackle, but he showed enough athleticism to block a punt and return it for a touchdown.

In 2005, he became a full-time tackle halfway through the year, starting at right tackle for the last nine games of the campaign while also catching J.P. Losman’s first career touchdown pass. Last year, he continued his even more unlikely trip up the offensive line difficulty spectrum, moving to left tackle after seven games and excelling over the rest of the campaign.

It was last week, though, that Peters was really called into the limelight, when reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jason Taylor paid Peters quite the compliment. The Buffalo News wrote:

“He’s probably the best left tackle I face this year,” Taylor said during a conference call with the Buffalo media this week. ” . . . He’s a big, athletic guy who is strong and moves very well. He’s got the size. He does a lot of things well. You don’t see him get beat a whole lot. He’s equally as strong in the run game as he is in the pass game. I think he’s a helluva player.”

When one considers the difficulty teams have in locating, acquiring, and keeping a left tackle cheap, Peters’ claim to being an elite left tackle makes him one of the most valuable — and unlikely — assets in pro football.

Let’s take a look at the left tackles that each of the 32 NFL franchises had pinned their hopes on this year, and see how they were acquired.

The “Home?” column denotes whether a player was homegrown or not. As you can see, many of the players here have been selected and retained by the team that picked them — while 24 of the 32 left tackles in the league coming into the season were homegrown, only 21 (if you consider Eli Manning homegrown) of the 32 quarterbacks in the league currently play for the team that originally drafted them. Among this list are eight top-ten picks. Generally, what we see here are teams making a huge investment in a left tackle and sticking with him for as long as they can. The players who have been acquired from other teams have generally disappointed (Jonas Jennings perhaps most prominently).

As you can see, Peters is one of only three undrafted free agents to be starting at left tackle, the other two being Denver’s Matt Lepsis and Oakland’s Barry Sims, both of whom suffered catastrophic knee injuries in their final year at school (Sims in the Hula Bowl) and went undrafted while rehabilitating their knees. Peters comes from a totally different angle than they do. In addition, Peters is one of the few players at the position who wasn’t drafted as a left tackle, let alone a tackle. Of the left tackles who came into the season as the starters, several have played right tackle and moved to left tackle or vice versa before returning, but very few have seen more than a handful of snaps at even another offensive line position, let alone at guard.

What makes Peters’ ascension even more remarkable and beneficial is how much he’s costing the Bills. Following his second season, the Bills were so sure about Peters ability to become an impact player somewhere that they ripped up his cheapo undrafted free agent contract and gave him a five-year, $15 million deal. This is the sort of cost-saving money that smart franchises like the Eagles employ frequently in the same vein that, say, the Cleveland Indians do to avoid paying young players the huge amounts of money they’d get in arbitration. While there’s no arbitration in football, free agency comes earlier and contracts are nonguaranteed, which is why it pays to lock up players on long-term deals. When you compare Peters’ deal to the rest of the league (as courtesy the contract data compiled by the fine folks at Rotoworld), he’s being paid a pittance.

“RC?” stands not for the delicious Royal Crown cola, but instead whether the tackle is still on his rookie contract or not. Of players signed to long-term deals, the only ones who came cheaper than Peters were two stopgaps, Ephraim Salaam and David Diehl.

At this point, Jason Peters represents not only a player with a unique path to his job and a interesting skill set, but he’s one of the ten most valuable players in football, when you consider bang for buck. His retention as an undrafted free agent is perhaps the biggest credit that can be given to the Tom Donahoe regime in Buffalo, and his resigning is the best thing Marv Levy’s done in his second stint as Bills supremo.

Filed Under: Columns Tagged With:

If the AFC Playoffs Began Today; Week Eleven

November 14, 2007 By Scott Benson 1 Comment

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The early playoff field was completely reshuffled on Sunday, as five of the six slots changed hands. Only the first seed remained unchanged.

Pittsburgh gained the most, rising to 2nd seed (and a possible first round bye) due to their comeback win over the Browns and San Diego’s upset of the Colts. Indy dropped to 3rd with their second straight loss. If the playoffs began today, the Colts would be playing on Wild Card Weekend.

Though idle, the Patriots actually had their lot improved as they gained even firmer control of the top seed. At minimum, they have a two-game lead over the Steelers and Colts for home field advantage through the playoffs.

With their special teams and defense taking down Indy, the Chargers leapt over the Chiefs to take control of the AFC West, at least for this week. That makes them the division leader with the 4th best record.

In the wildcard race, Jacksonville upset Tennessee in Nashville and took over the 5th seed, previously held by the now 6th seeded Titans. So if the playoffs began today, the Titans would visit Indy, and the Jags would travel to San Diego in first round action.

Too soon to call anything yet, though: the Bills and Browns lurk nearby, hoping to land a punch somehow, each just a game back and a heartbeat away. In the distance, Denver and Kansas City harbor hopes in the West.

Let’s give the big wheel a spin.

Okay, we’ll review what we’re looking at here: the top six seeds if the playoffs started today, and a few other teams that could/will/most likely become a factor over the next seven weeks. The columns represent the various NFL tiebreakers used for seeding the playoff bracket. First is WIN%, or won/lost record.

The next series of columns – all marked H2H – indicate the head-to-head advantages currently enjoyed by each team, in case of tie. Two things: I limited the H2H’s just to playoff contenders, meaning you won’t find a ‘NYJ’ in the Patriots’ row. Second, the asterisks mean there is still another game to be played between the teams.

After the head-to-head tiebreaker, there’s DIV% and CONF%, the divisional and conference winning percentages. Following that are record in common games (CG% here), which I’m not bothering with until I need to. I draw the line at SOV% and SOS%, or strength of victory (total W/L of teams they beat) and strength of schedule (total W/L% of all scheduled teams).

So with the sheet you can quickly see that, at the moment, Pittsburgh gets ahead of Indy because of a better conference record. The same is true of the Jaguars, who moved past the Titans on the same tiebreaker.

The boys from the South are alternatively threatening the Colts and tying up the two wild card spots. Buffalo and Cleveland are in the mix with five wins, and the Browns have a particularly favorable schedule going forward (that’s the green column, REM%, or W/L percentage of remaining opponents).

Let’s see what the schedule looks like for this weekend.

New England at Buffalo – Great story, the Bills. They’ve emerged from the ashes and now they’re soaring. The whole city is going crazy, kind of like the way Cleveland did in Major League, even though the Indians played all their games at County Stadium in Milwaukee. Anyway, the Bills have overcome a lot, played hard, won 4 in a row, and maybe now a little hope does reside in Buffalo. On cue, they have a nationally televised game against the best team in the league. Great excitement, great feelings, great story. You hate to crush something like that. But, that’s the job.

Pittsburgh at NY Jets – So the Steelers get a big comeback win last week and now they have a truck delivering them enough cupcakes to last a month. Combined winning percentage of their next three opponents? .148.

Kansas City at Indianapolis – Are the Colts playing badly enough to lose to the Chiefs at home? They may be slumping, but this seems like a stretch.

San Diego at Jacksonville – How good is San Diego, really? Good enough to cross the country the week after an emotional win and beat the Jags in Jacksonville? With that head coach-quarterback combo? A Chargers win here might say more about Jacksonville than it would about San Diego.

Tennessee at Denver – I don’t trust Denver, hanging around in the West. I think that’s a Shanahan reflex more than anything, because it dawns on me that Denver wouldn’t get out of the first round even with dynamite strapped to their chests.

Cleveland at Baltimore – Speaking of dynamite, look out for those Ravens! One of these weeks, attacking each other on the radio after bitter losses is going to inspire them to greatness. The Browns took a tough loss in Pittsburgh last Sunday, precisely the kind of game improving young teams seem to lose, until they don’t. Now they have a chance to kick a reeling division rival out the door. Let’s see what they’re made of.

New Orleans at Houston – I really don’t know why I’m even listing the Texans here anymore, because there’s no way they’re coming out of that division with a playoff spot. Maybe by this time next week, this list will be a little shorter.

Filed Under: News

America’s Sweetheart? Everyone Knows It’s Indy

November 14, 2007 By Dan Snapp 14 Comments

logoby Dan Snapp
dan@patriotsdaily.com

Move over, Charlie Brown. America’s got a new lovable loser: Your Indianapolis Colts.

Has there ever been a team so feted after two straight losses? Has ever a team been so unabashedly built up as the one you simply HAVE to root for?

The Colts broke down late against the dastardly Patriots a week ago, but chin up, America! There’s good news yet, because the Colts, while losing, “provided the blueprint” for how to win against the Pats. Imagine that.

Indy lost this Sunday as well, to the “energetic” San Diego Chargers (while providing yet another blueprint, hooray!). Don’t lose faith, though. See, they only lost because they were missing Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark (how come the networks never mentioned that?).

And there was, like, weather (FOOTBALL was MEANT to be played INDOORS!!).

And the refs had it in for them (apparently no appreciation for Ben Utecht’s one-man homage to the ’75 Cowboys offensive line shift).

So OK, their kicker missed two field goals. And well, yeah, I guess you could probably also mention the six interceptions the franchise quarterback threw.

But still, they’re a team you can be proud of. Heck, Mark Schlereth told us Tony Dungy’s admittance of a tactical error cemented his position as one of the league’s elite, the tactical error itself only slightly diminishing the distinction.

Mark made another huge point about the special teams being so tired and all. I think that was especially apparent on Darren Sproles’ touchdown on the game’s opening kickoff. Hey, when they come out of the tunnel for pre-game, they sprint, dammit!

And just wait ’til you catch Dr. Z’s story on Manning:

“And even with strange numbers on the uniforms of Manning’s receivers, the Colts drove when they had to, scored, put points on the board, brought it back to 23-21 and took it down to the shadow of the Chargers’ goal, where a missed 29-yard field goal did them in. It was an amazing example of battlefield command, of somehow mustering a shattered army. But that’s what Peyton is so good at, fighting the odds.”

Forget the Colts’ D, the recovered fumble in the end zone, or the two picks and two fumbles by Philip Rivers. And certainly forget that last second pick when Peyton was trying to make something happen; in my book, he had a mere five interceptions. No, Z’s right: Manning’s the man alright.

Seriously, though, exactly how bad a game must Peyton Manning have before we’re permitted to call it as such?

The media’s gone off its rocker for this team. There’s always been the Manning love, and the kissing up to “one of the league’s good guys”, Dungy, but it’s been ratcheted way up this season.

The “Good vs. Evil” stories prior to the Pats game, the Silver Lining stories after the loss, and now the continual excuse-making – it all points to one thing: The media chose their champion in advance, and they’re sticking to their story. Although if the Colts screw up another one, the Steelers are waiting in the wings as the new People’s Champion.

There’s merit to the injury excuse, but whose fault is that? Football’s a game of attrition, where you have to prepare for losing starters to injury (like, say, the ’03 Pats did).

The Colts throw Craphonso against the wall to see what sticks, and we should feel sympathy? They made their choice long ago when they decided to pay for two No. 1 receivers. This one’s on Bill Polian.

America’s Darlings will likely pull out of their tailspin this weekend against the Chiefs, and get healthier for the stretch run (hopefully, Dwight Freeney’s injury is minor). Good vs. Evil II is likely still good to go.

Hope they’ve got their excuses ready.

Filed Under: Columns

Inside Gillette

November 13, 2007 By Christopher Price 4 Comments

logoby Christopher Price
chris@patriotsdaily.com

When it comes to stopping Buffalo running back Marshawn Lynch, Patriots offensive lineman Ryan O’Callaghan figures it’s pretty simple: “Get a lot of people hitting him.”

O’Callaghan knows better than most — he was a college teammate of Lynch at Cal, and got to know Lynch pretty well. He cleared a path for him for two seasons, helping Lynch gain 1,246 rushing yards in 2005.

“We hung out together all the time,” O’Callaghan said of Lynch. “He’s funny, real funny. He’s very passionate about his family. He’s a guy who didn’t come from the best area, but it says something about him that he’s been able to make something with his life. I’m happy for him.”

He’s not shocked at what the rookie running back — the best rookie running back in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson — has been able to accomplish this season with the Bills. The 21-year-old Lynch has had a hand in seven of the 10 touchdowns the Buffalo offense has registered this season. In addition, he ranks fifth in the NFL with 751 yards rushing, and his 196 carries rank second behind Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker.

Lynch is scheduled for more tests on his injured left ankle after sustaining an injury in a comeback win against the Dolphins on Sunday, but Bills Head Coach Dick Jauron hopes the rookie running back will be ready to play against the Patriots Sunday night at Buffalo’s Ralph Wilson Stadium. That doesn’t shock O’Callaghan.

“He’s strong,” O’Callaghan said of the 5-foot-11, 215-pound Lynch. “He’s got good movement, and he’s hard to bring down.”

That was certainly the case when the Patriots and Bills met in Week 3. Of the running backs the Patriots have faced this season, Lynch perhaps turned in the second-best performance, gaining 74 tough yards on the ground against New England in a 38-7 win for the Patriots. That trails only Colts running back Joseph Addai, who had 112 yards rushing and 114 yards receiving. (Statistically, Lynch’s performance stood as the best rushing performance against New England until Miami’s Ronnie Brown ran for 76 mostly soft yards in Week 7.)

Lynch’s Week 3 numbers were commendable for any running back, especially when you consider the Patriots are holding opposing running games as a whole to an average of just 90.6 yards per game, the sixth-best number in the NFL.

“He doesn’t shirk,” Jauron of Lynch after he rushed for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s win over Miami. “He doesn’t shirk in practice, and he definitely doesn’t shirk on game day.”

FIVE THINGS TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK

1. How the Patriots go about trying to neutralize Aaron Schobel. New England held the defensive end to just 1/2 a sack the first time these two teams met earlier this season. In that one, they blunted him using a variety of blocking combinations — eight, by our count, including one where linebacker Mike Vrabel lined up opposite Schobel as a tight end in a goal-line situation. In all, left tackle Matt Light got the better of him when the two went head to head 23 of 29 times.

2. Post-bye week letdown. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have gone 5-2 in games played the week after a bye. Curiously, this week will mark the fifth time in the last eight years New England will face the Bills following a bye. After a loss in 2000, the Patriots have won the last three post-bye week meetings against Buffalo by an average score of 27-13.

3. Buffalo will be the first team this season that will be facing the Patriots a second time — will they do anything differently? Did the Bills learn anything about the Patriots from their Week 3 matchup? Specifically, will Buffalo focus more of its coverage on Randy Moss in the passing game, or leave him in single coverage — as they did for much of Week 3 — and risk getting burned?

4. Can Laurence Maroney duplicate his Week 3 effort against the Bills? The second-year running back rushed for 103 yards against the Bills in Week 3, the second-highest single game total of his career. The Patriots will lean heavily on the young running back, who has yet to prove he can pull his weight as the featured back on a consistent basis.

5. Starting fast. For the Patriots, it’ll be absolutely imperative to get out of the gates quickly in this one. On a four-game win streak, the Bills and their fans are starting to feel pretty good about themselves. If New England affords them the slightest glimmer of hope, a sold out Ralph Wilson crowd — which will have spent most of the afternoon in the parking lot preparing for the game — will try to make the game as difficult as possible for the Patriots.

STAT OF THE WEEK

4.7. On average, one out of every 4.7 catches for Randy Moss this season has resulted in a touchdown. (He has 56 receptions and 12 touchdowns.)

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“It’s kind of like the Iditarod, those sled dogs. Every single day you have to pull that sled, and at night you eat your food and think about pulling that sled the next day.” — Patriots tight end Kyle Brady on the road ahead for New England.

Christopher Price is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the Patriots since 2001 for Boston Metro. He’s served a contributor to ESPN.com, SI.com, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post and The Miami Herald. He’s written “The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower,” and can be reached at chris@patriotsdaily.com.

Filed Under: Columns Tagged With:

Monday Morning Leftovers

November 12, 2007 By Scott Benson 10 Comments

by Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

There was a lot of movement in the AFC playoff picture yesterday, with the results of three intra-conference games shuffling the deck:

* Pittsburgh’s comeback over Cleveland vaulted the Steelers to 2nd seed in the conference;

* Indy’s folly in San Diego dropped the Colts to 3rd;

* The Chargers take control of the West (and the 4th seed) as the only team with a record better than .500;

* Jacksonville’s road win in Tennessee gave the Jags this week’s 5th seed by virtue of a better conference record than the;

* Titans, who fell to the 6th seed with their home loss. A win would have brought Tennessee into a virtual tie with Indianapolis for the division lead (though the Colts currently have the head-to-head advantage over the Titans with one game left between the teams).

Most importantly, the action brought the idle Patriots even closer to claiming the 1st seed in the 2007 AFC playoffs. They now have a two-game lead over the Steelers (with a head-to-head matchup still to come) and a three-game lead over the Colts (counting the H2H advantage gained with last week’s huge win in Indy) with seven games to play.

We’ll take a little closer look at how the playoff picture is shaping up later this week.

When was the last time Peyton Manning played that bad, by the way? Excepting the fourth quarter last week, of course. I have to admit, though, that I buy in a little to the “Peyton has no weapons!” angle. That was a pretty awful crew he had running with him last night, and yet, thanks to San Diego’s dreadful offense, the Colts nearly pulled it out of the fire. But Adam’s (Not) Money anymore, I guess.

One thing about San Diego – I don’t care how well that defense is playing, I don’t care what amazing tricks Antonio Cromartie has left in his bag, I don’t care even if Ladanian Tomlinson gets cranked up for the home stretch. They are not going anywhere with that quarterback. He is just awful, and you can count on him and him alone to ensure that the Chargers somehow underachieve.

The Pats’ next opponent, the Buffalo Bills, pulled out a comeback of their own in what had to amount to a trap game in Miami. Did the Bills look to next Sunday night too soon? They got away with it, and now they can turn their attention fully to entertaining the Patriots. Look for the overly-confident J.P. Losman to put his foot in his mouth this week, if he hasn’t already. The Pats might need to put up a bulletin board just for him.

Filed Under: News
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