September 4, 2010


The Sunday Links, October 21, 2007

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The New England Patriots will try to go 7-0 for the first time in franchise history this afternoon as they travel to Miami for a divisional matchup with the winless Dolphins. Let’s take a spin through the morning papers to see what they think.

In his Pats notebook, the Globe’s Christopher Gasper says Ben Watson and Sammy Morris will miss the game today. Morris is sidelined after having a house fall on him last week, and Watson is on the dole after he was tackled from behind by Dallas’s Roy Williams, an awful little shit who specializes in injuring players far more talented than him by tackling them from behind. Special teams ace Mel Mitchell will also miss another game. Gasper also has a brief visit with Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who’s been admiring the Pats from afar. 

Chris continues by looking at Tom Brady’s many struggles in South Florida, pointing out that the Fins are one of the few teams that have been able to combine physical coverage with a strong pass rush when facing the Pats. In his weekly scouting report, Jim McBride says the Pats have it all over Miami today.

Mike Reiss looks at how teams are getting off to a fast start with scripted offenses, including the Patriots, the only team this season to score on every one of its opening drives. Mike, without even cracking a smile, adds comments from Norv “Secret Agent Man” Turner, who knows a little something about scripting plays. Or so he claims. Elsewhere, Reiss considers whether Jason Taylor will continue to be part of the Dolphins’ perpetual rebuilding program as he bears down on some considerable cap numbers next season.

In the Herald, Karen Gurgeian has more on the offensive scripting in her Pats notebook. John Tomase lists five things to look for in today’s game, including which running backs the Pats will use against Miami’s lousy run defense. Speaking of running backs, Tomase has some quick hits on why the Pats are unlikely to call on Corey Dillon if the injury bug continues to tax the New England running backs.

John adds a short, tsk-tsk bit at the end on the Patriots leaving popcorn all over the Texas Stadium carpet last week. This double standard continues to kill me. The rest of the league has been lining up since September to take their shots at the Pats, and the media generally accepts this as amusing filler for their Thursday notes columns. But if New England ever tries to give a little back, even after earning that right on the field, someone will be there to offer a stern lecture about “character” and “class” and roll their eyes about some alleged hypocracy on the part of the Patriots. It’s exhausting.

Tomase wonders if Jason Taylor would consider New England, of all classless places, if he’s ever forced to separate from the Dolpins. John has NFL notes as well, and of course, that means a visit with Lenny Clarke. Natural progression there. Lenny says sports radio is always trying to tear him apart from his pal Bill Belichick, which makes me really glad I don’t listen to sports radio anymore.  

Shalise Manza Young of the ProJo says the Pats have gone from the NFL’s most vilified team to its most watchable. SMY agrees with Jim McBride that the Pats have all the advantages today, and closes out the morning by going up close with the typically quiet Kevin Faulk. The fertile imagination of Jim Donaldson somehow cooks up an imaginary debate between Belichick and Miami Herald columnist Greg Cote. Topic: Do the Dolphins suck? Answer: Yes! Winner? Media!

In Hartford, Courant writer David Heuschkel has Heath Evans saying that if the Pats think too much about 0-6, they’ll be 6-1 when they leave Miami today. Get that, Jim? In Portland, Maine Sunday Telegram beat man Mike Lowe looks at fast learner Wes Welker, who only seems like a career Patriot.

For more news, check patriotslinks.com, and as always, we’ll be around with post-game reaction. Have a good Sunday.

College Scout, October 20, 2007

logoby Greg Doyle
greg@patriotsdaily.com

Big games on tap this weekend that will flush out the BCS standing even further. With Boston College idle, they could move up to #2 with South Florida losing to Rutgers this past Thursday. A loss by Ohio State to Michigan State and the impossible could happen – yes, BC at #1. Of course, they face their own extremely tough game next Thursday at Virginia Tech. The standings will be further subject to change as LSU looks to get back on track at home against Auburn and USC looks to take out Notre Dame after a string of lackluster performances by the Trojans. Should be an interesting weekend.

Kansas at Colorado (5:45 PM ESPN): Kansas remains under the radar at 6-0 and they had an exceedingly easy first four games on their schedule before finally getting an impressive win two weeks ago at Kansas State. They are now up to 15 in most polls and a win here on the road against an improved Colorado team should finally get the pollsters to pay closer attention. Kansas runs an entertaining style of offense under coach Mark Mangino. Colorado is in the second year of a rebuilding program and has made great strides, already knocking off highly ranked Oklahoma this year. This should be a real good game with young talent on both sides. We took a look at Colorado in the September 29th College Scout, so check that out. Let’s take a look at some more players in this game.

Kansas WR Marcus Henry (#86): A solid but far from great player his first few years at Kansas, Henry seems to have taken it to a higher level this season. Has 24 catches during the first six games and is averaging nearly 20 yards per catch, while finding the end zone 3 times. Has good size and the improvement he’s shown this year will impress scouts. He is likely a later round choice as he isn’t a speed burner, but there is potential for him to be a possession receiver and he’ll need to continue to display nice hands to solidify his standing.

Kansas FB Brandon McAnderson (#35): A fullback in the Jayhawks scheme who weighs in at 235 lbs. Has been given the ball a lot more by Kansas this year, racking up 461 yards rushing through the first 6 games. Has not gotten much experience catching the ball, but does flash some potential there. He is a team captain, which is something the Patriots always look for and like to draft. Has been a mainstay for the Jayhawks covering kicks throughout his career. Truthfully, McAnderson almost certainly will not be drafted. But he has an interesting size combination with an ability to run the ball. Throw in special teams skills and some pass catching capabilities and he reminds slightly of former Patriots versatile back Patrick Pass. McAnderson could get a look in someone’s camp and make a team or practice squad. A lot depends on his blocking and ability to show some versatility in what he can bring, but it wouldn’t shock me if he ends up spending years in the NFL and eventually becoming a solid pass-catching fullback type.

Colorado TE Tyson DeVree (#84): A big, athletic tight end who has a knack for finding the end zone. Spent his first two years at Western Michigan where he caught 55 passes. Settling in at Colorado and has 13 catches so far. A pass catcher with good size who has a lot of experience and will get a look. Smart, which is a trait the Patriots look for.

Idaho at New Mexico State (8:00 PM ESPN Game Plan): Believe it or not, there is some NFL-caliber talent in this game, which you’ll only be able to catch if you subscribe to ESPN Game Plan. Idaho is struggling at 1-6 and headed for their 8th straight losing season. New Mexico State sits at 3-4 and seems to be making progress under former Kentucky head coach Hal Mumme. Let’s take a look at a few of the players in this game, as some of them could end up in the NFL some day.

Idaho LB David Vobora (#40): The best player on the Vandals shaky defense, Vobora is a sure tackler with NFL size and the quickness and speed to get to the edge. Displays leadership ability and plays hard. Can make plays both in coverage and in the backfield. Team captain. Voted first team All-WAC Conference last year.

Idaho CB Stanley Franks (#6): Was All-WAC Conference as a Junior and had an impressive 9 interceptions, tying for most in the NCAA. Came over last year as a JUCO player. Has only 1 interception so far this year, but teams are avoiding him. A bit too small at around 170 lbs, but he has ball skills and some potential. Can return kicks.

New Mexico State DT Maurice Murray (#45): Very big defensive tackle who came over from a Junior College to start last year. Starting again this year and has racked up 13 tackles so far with 1.5 sacks. Big and strong and weighs as much as 323 lbs with good height, yet plays on the end. This could indicate he has potential to play 3-4 end for the Patriots. Very raw and took a year off from football in 2005. Late round or free agent type, but with size and strength, could fit with the Patriots.

Michigan at Illinois (8:00 PM ABC): Check out the September 8th College Scout for a look at some of the Michigan players to watch and the October 6th College Scout for a look at Illinois. This is a big game for both these teams. Michigan remains undefeated in the Big 10 and still has Rose Bowl aspirations while Illinois suffered their first loss of the season in the Big 10 last week to Iowa, but can get themselves back into the race with a win here.

Michigan LB Shawn Crable (#2): Somewhat unheralded coming into this season, he is moving up the charts by leading Michigan in tackles so far this season. At 6’5″ 245 he has definite NFL 3-4 linebacker potential. Can rush the passer and a solid tackler. Gets out into coverage as well. Seems to be a perfect fit with a 3-4 team like the Patriots. Has 5.5 sacks thru 7 games this year. Runs a good 40 time and with a good Combine, he may start soaring up the charts. Has gotten some consideration as a Butkus Award candidate as the nation’s top linebacker.
 
Michigan S Jamar Adams (#22): A good sized safety who has been productive and a multi-year starter for Michigan. Has 35 tackles with 2 interceptions and 7 pass break ups thru 7 games this season. Has played special teams and been productive there. Very fast and good coverage ability, but also can hit. Should be one of the better safeties in the draft.
 
Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall (#5): A junior, he is having such a good year he may consider coming out. Only 210 lbs, but never seems to go down on first contact. Has some good vision and cutting ability as well. Good around the end zone, he has had one of the better years of any running back in the country. Can catch the ball as well with 21 catches thru 7 games.
 
Illinois FB Russ Weil (#41): A big-bruising throwback fullback type. Probably won’t be drafted, but a good blocker and can catch a pass here and there. May stick with a team looking for a traditional fullback type and this brusing blocker would fit the bill.

Patriots Daily Week In Review

news.jpgThought we’d recap a pretty busy week here at Patriots Daily, just in case you missed anything.

* On Monday, Scott looked back at the Patriots thumping of the chatterbox Wade Phillips and the Dallas Cowboys in Game Day Rear View

* Tuesday we went Inside Gillette with Christopher Price, who examined the first six games of this season for Tom Brady and compared it to the other top six game stretches of Brady’s career. In addition to his five things to watch this week, Chris also has a great quote of the week from Rosevelt Colvin.

In addition, Chris’s book, The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower was released this week, and Chris will be doing a book signing tomorrow (Saturday the 20th) at the Borders- Wayside Commons in Burlington at 2:00pm. It’d be great if you could come down and give Chris some support!

* Wednesday‘s edition of Direct Snapp examined Randy Moss’ transformation into the ultimate Patriot, and how even Terrell Owens’ baiting this past week couldn’t derail Moss’ team-first spirit.

* Bill Barnwell stirred up Dolphins fans with his look at The Pedigree of Ted Ginn Jr. on Thursday, which examined Ginn’s combine numbers as compared to other receivers that have come into the NFL in the last few years. A Barnwell work from last December; Chris Chambers, The Worst WR In Football also got a lot of attention this week as Chambers was traded to the Chargers, and San Diego fans didn’t like what they read about their newest wideout.

* Finally this morning, we had our weekly Patriots Roundtable, where we looked at this weekend’s matchup with the Dolphins, as well as some talk about whether the lunacy that is the national media attention has any chance of derailing the Patriots march through the schedule.

Check back this weekend, for College Scout by Greg Doyle and The Sunday Links from Scott Benson.

Patriots Roundtable, October 19, 2007

logoby the Patriots Daily Staff
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

As the baseball playoffs continue to dominate the local landscape, the Patriots are rolling towards the mid-point of the 2007 season. This week, they travel to their own Little Shop of Horrors – Dolphin Stadium (shouldn’t that be plural?) – as they try to take their perfect record to 7-0.

Try as we might, we could not get Bob Kuechenberg to take a seat at the Roundtable this week. Sorry panel – you’re on your own.

As every week goes by, more and more commentators rush to place the Pats’ hot start in some greater historical perspective. There’s talk of an undefeated season, quarterbacking records, and just this Sunday, Cris Collinsworth and others talked about the Patriots offense as being perhaps the greatest of all time. After six weeks! Could the hype eventually become a burden for the Patriots?

Bruce Allen: I really don’t think anything that the media has to say could possibly turn into a burden for this team. They shown time and again that whether the media coverage is negative or positive, it doesn’t matter to them. Could they put their own expectations on themselves? I think Belichick has pounded the “one game at a time” philosophy into them so much that they really are able to just focus on each game as it comes.

Tim Jordan: They are a veteran team with a coaching staff that seems very aware of the team’s mental approach each week, but they aren’t immune to emotional letdowns or getting carried away. It’s more likely to happen closer to the end of the season though. Thursday the team practice was a walk- through and not full contact. That leads me to believe that, for this game, the staff thinks they aren’t taking anything for granted. If they do have a hiccup, I hope it’s something that jeopardizes a record rather than playoff seeding. That’s the short term goal right now, not any of the silly artificial milestone. And Cris Collinsworth has no right to enjoy this team. I am sure the actual quote was something like “Honestly? They may be the best I have ever seen….and I have seen alot….and I am pretty well spoken…..and I am pretty handsome for a guy with rubber hose for a neck.”

Dan Snapp: This is one of the best parts of being a fan of Bill Belichick’s Patriots: you just know that whatever lunacy is being floated – going 17-0, Manning’s TD record, Ken Anderson’s completion percentage record, etc. – the team will be focused only on the immediate goal in front of them. I don’t really mind the heightened expectations. Most likely, they’ll fall short of some of these manufactured goalposts, but who cares so long as they’re holding the trophy at the end of the year.

Greg Doyle: I think it is too early still to say the things the media is saying. I suppose its understandable, given the pace the Patriots are on. But injuries still can occur. Just this week, the Patriots lost Ben Watson and Sammy Morris for what probably is awhile. Laurence Maroney was already out. That is three less weapons. Lose a few more and suddenly they aren’t as unstoppable anymore. It’s just too soon to call them among the best ever.

Travis Graham: I’m not sure how far off these predictions are. I’m starting to believe that if you give this team and coaching staff two weeks to prepare for a game… and you had a time machine that could bring back any team from any era, the Pats would be the favorite in every matchup… even against the 2004 week 3 Steelers.

Scott Benson: Maybe that’s what’s been bothering Peter King.

Let’s turn our attention to this Sunday’s divisional game with winless Miami. The Pats have traditionally had trouble with the Dolphins defense. This year, though, Miami comes in 23rd overall defensively – will they be able to reach back for one of their vintage Brady-stopping performances?

Travis: Probably not. Their DBs just aren’t that good. The Pats should be able to take an early lead through the air, then give it to the running back de jour for the rest of the game. Surprisingly, Miami is sixth best in the NFL in passing defense, but I think this is due to teams getting an early lead and running down their throat.

Greg: No. They have slipped a little each year for a few years now defensively. Last year, yes, they came up with a great effort down there and shut the Pats out. But they just aren’t very good anymore defensively and the Pats are better offensively than ever. Something has to give. They know the Pats well, so they’ll probably do a decent job. But they don’t have the horses to slow the Pats down completely as they have done in the past.

Tim: It’s the same basic personnel with the same coaching as last year when the Patriots were just pummeled on their way to getting shut out. Two big differences: the Patriots offense and no videotapes with the NE signals for Miami. Until I see a team do something to slow down this offense, the closest anyone has come is the Browns, I am feeling pretty good against most everyone.

Scott: Tim just brought up videotaping without a trace of irony. Nicely played. We have moved on, America!

Bruce: Jason Taylor is always going to be a thorn in the side for Brady and the Patriots. I expect him in the Patriots backfield several times this Sunday afternoon. That’s the most disruptive part of the Dolphins defense, which could lead to other bad things. I think the Dolphins will have one of their better defensive performances of the year this week.

How about the Patriots defense against Cleo Lemon, Ronnie Brown and the 21st ranked Miami offense?

Travis: Brown will be a good test for the Pats. Dallas and Cleveland were able to pick up yardage on the ground against them (over 90 yards each). I think this might have been overlooked when those teams were forced to pass in the second halves due to the score. Ronnie Brown is one of the best in the league (over 100 yards the last 4 weeks) and we should see how good this front seven really is for at least the first two quarters.

Dan: On Wednesday, Belichick said Brown’s the “Best player I’ve seen this year offensively.” It’s gotten lost in an otherwise dismal season, but he’s a threat. Given the sad nature of the rest of the Miami offense, I think the Pats can safely overload on Brown.

Greg: You know, I actually caught a bit of the Miami game last week and I thought Lemon looked okay. What I mean is, there is something to work with there. Nice arm, good touch at times, can move a bit. But he is very raw. He played at a small school in a bad conference in college. He wasn’t exposed to pro-style passing at that time. He has been in the league for a few years now, but has limited game experience. I expect an occasional nice display of talent, but lots of mistakes Sunday. As for Ronnie Brown, from what I have seen he is running better than he ever has and is developing into a true workhouse. The Dolphins may be 0-6, but Brown has been a definite positive for them in that he is developing and improving. I expect the Patriots not to give up much, however, to what amounts to a pretty shaky offense, especially now that they just traded one of their best weapons in Chris Chambers.

Tim: Tough spot for Miami this week. Brown looks like the perfect back to assume LT’s multi-purpose role in Cameron’s offense, but Dan’s right, he’s the only weapon they have. I don’t want to engage in any psychobabble, but you have to wonder how the team is feeling after their best wideout was traded for a future draft pick as Greg mentioned. That’s a kick in the gnads heading into the best opponent they’ve played all year. Cleo Lemon is a cool name though. That guy was bound to be famous, or a private detective.

Save for one play, the Pats had a great week covering kicks against the Cowboys. What do you expect from the Pats specials this weekend?

Travis: If Gost has a game like last week, they shouldn’t have much of a problem on kickoffs. I haven’t heard much about it, but his kickoffs from last week (not counting the squib) landed at the: -1, touchback, -3, -4, touchback, 5, 0. They weren’t line drives, either. The Cowboys’ returners usually felt the first contact at the 10-15 yard line. Gostkowski is turning into one of the best at kickoffs in the league.

Cam Cameron has gotten off to as bad a start as a new head coach can – winless through the first six weeks. That streak makes the Dolphins 19-39 over their last 3.5 seasons, after going 41-23 to start the decade. Seriously – what the @!&% is wrong with Miami?

Greg: I think one of the main problems has been lack of continuity for them. A few years back they had Dave Wannstadt as coach and he had his philosophy and style of play. They had some tough teams and won the division in Belichick’s first season here, but they always seemed to be missing something. They tried to get by for a few years with Jay Fiedler at QB. He was okay, but not good enough. Then Nick Saban came in and made wholesale changes. His moves were designed to imprint his style of play with his style of players. It can’t be expected to work in two years, necessarily. Plus they had the failed Daunte Culpepper deal, which left them still without a QB. Out of the blue, Saban leaves and once again you have a new coach trying to mold his style with a lot of players left over who fit better in a different system. Too much change. And they still haven’t found a long-term solution at QB and the defense has gotten old. They need to stick with Cameron for a few years or they’re just going to continue to flounder for awhile (pun intended)

Tim: When losing becomes an annual exercise the first place you have to look is ownership. I wish Marino was given real responsibility a few years ago as GM. That would have made the last 3.5 years look like a dynasty that songs should be written about. I think Mercury Morris when he was working out at the gym-NOSE-ium 8 hours a day would make better personnel decisions than unabashed goofball Dan Marino. No tears here for Miami. I hope it lasts forever.

Okay, men, let’s have a final score. Will the Pats make it to 7-0 this weekend?

Greg: Yes, with ease. I’ll go with 27-6.

Bruce: Patriots 20, Dolphins 10.

Dan: For whatever reason (and Taylor’s likely a big part of it), Brady struggles here. Hopefully, Kyle Brady had a #99 pinned to his facemask all week, so he’s comfortable with the assignment Sunday. Pats 34-17.

Tim: Hard to believe they won’t make it a lucky 7 game winning streak to start the year. It’s easy to use past losses like last year’s and 04′s in Miami as cautionary tales, but both of those happened late in the season and I think that played a big part. I am personally looking ahead to Washington next week. They’ll present real changes with their physical secondary. 28 – 10 good guys.

Outside Foxborough – The Pedigree of Ted Ginn Jr.

fo.jpgBy Bill Barnwell
bill@patriotsdaily.com

The Dolphins trade of Chris Chambers this week was both surprising and not surprising. On one hand, rumors pegged Chambers as potential trade bait going back to training camp, where he failed to impress new head coach Cam Cameron. Chambers was also plying his trade for a 0-6 team about to undergo a difficult rebuilding process, the other side of which Chambers wouldn’t be likely to see. On the other hand, Chambers had been an important part of the Dolphins offense this year, and was rebounding back to at least mediocrity following a dire 2006.

The other surprising thing is that the Dolphins would make this deal considering what else they have at wide receiver. Marty Booker, much like Chambers, is a veteran with little value left to the Dolphins. Derek Hagan is a lanky receiver who struggles with drops. Greg Camarillo is, ironically, a San Diego castoff who followed Cameron to Miami, but the elephant in the room is the one least likely to make an impact this year – Ted Ginn.

The Ohio State product was Miami’s surprise first-round pick in the NFL Draft following a high-profile career at OSU, highlighted by a kickoff return in the BCS Championship Game that left him injured for several months with a foot concern. Ginn’s performance at school wasn’t particularly special; he caught 135 passes in three seasons, and averaged only 14.4 yards per catch, not a particularly high number for a deep threat. The problem is, though, that we don’t know much, if anything, about what college statistics and performance mean with regards to wide receivers. I did hypothesize earlier in the year that Big 10 wideouts might be underrated versus those from other divisions because of the propensity of Big 10 teams to run the ball, but that still requires more research.

Besides, people weren’t picking Ginn based upon his college performance, they were picking him based upon the possibility that he might be Devin Hester 2.0. Ginn’s return skills were dynamite, and that was best measured by, well, his measurables. While Ginn did not run at the combine because of his foot injury, the numbers provided by his school were pretty amazing, highlighted by a blazing 4.28 40 time.

The thing is, standardized measurements are a lot like the standardized tests you’ll take while preparing to go to college; they’re a useful indicator of a person’s relative intelligence, but by no means are they exact. Some players actually play much slower than their 40 time, as taken without pads or opponents, while others run just as fast regardless of the conditions.

Much like how we don’t have any idea of the correlation between receiver performance in college and the pros, though, we’re still in the dark about what relevance a good or bad combine has to future success. We can probably infer that a good combine is a better indicator of a good player than a bad one, but what parts mean more? Is 40 time the most important metric, or is it vertical leap?

What gets lost in the whole mess is that Ted Ginn’s not a particularly fantastic prospect when it comes to his measurables. Granted, a 4.28 40 is a great time; that being said, he’s not particularly large and the only other figure we have for him, his vertical leap, is downright mediocre. At 5’11” and with a 34.5” vertical leap and a 9’9” jump, Ginn’s not going to be able to get to the ball in traffic, meaning that unless one of those things change, he’s going to have to run past guys to get the ball as opposed to running around them.

The other interesting thing I discovered when doing research on Ginn and his combine numbers is something I reported in this year’s Pro Football Prospectus; namely, that Ginn’s measurables match up very well to a current NFL player.

The similarities between Ginn and Texans receiver Jerome Mathis are pretty remarkable. Their height, weight, 40 time, and vertical leap are pretty much exact duplicates of one another. The big difference is in the jump, where Mathis has nearly a foot on Ginn. While Mathis has made no impact on the Texans passing game, he was a Pro Bowl returner in his rookie season before missing most of 2006 with an injury.

The other NFL receivers on this list also have superior numbers to Ginn. Chambers had 25 pounds of bulk on Ginn, and was a freak athlete outside of his blazing speed. Santana Moss had more than a half-foot of vertical on Ginn, and likely represents the best possible career path Ginn could hope for. Tim Carter’s found it impossible to stay healthy, while Troy Williamson remains a bust now into his third season.

Furthermore, there’s no real indication that even a great returner is easily findable in the draft. Take a look at the last ten years of Pro Bowlers at the return spots. Only Charles Woodson and Eric Metcalf were first-round picks; while 2006 selectees Justin Miller and Hester were both second-round picks, most of the others were either undrafted free agents or Day Two picks.

Ginn’s been virtually nonexistent this season. He’s been a decent return man, if not a great one, but his role in the Miami offense has been reserve receiver. While that puts him ahead of Robert Meachem in the scheme of things, that’s no great shakes. It’s entirely impossible that Ginn could turn out to be a great receiver, but based upon all the data we have up to this point, there’s not much evidence pointing in his favor.

Modus OpeRandy

logoby Dan Snapp
dan@patriotsdaily.com

“It’s just not right,” my brother said. “Other guys that have left, I was happy for them when they found success. But I just can’t bring myself to root for Randy. It doesn’t seem fair he can quit his way onto a winning team.”

It’s not an uncommon sentiment among Viking fans like my brother. In their minds, Randy Moss quit on the Vikings, he quit on the Raiders, yet now he’s being rewarded. Like my brother said, it doesn’t seem fair.

So how come he’s won us over?  

I knew I’d love the player. Art Shell’s objections aside, everyone recognized Moss was still a game-breaking talent. And he had every incentive to work hard and keep his nose clean: a chance to revive his career, a chance at winning a ring, and a chance at a stats bonanza catching passes from the league’s top quarterback, and all just in time for his last big payday.

For one year, we believed, Moss’s selfish agenda aligned perfectly with the Patriots’ team agenda.

The Pats got him on the cheapo one-year loan, and when the time came to collect his payoff – hopefully long after the Pats won their fourth title – he’d be somebody else’s property, somebody else’s bloated contract,  and somebody else’s problem when things would eventually get ugly. That was the plan, anyway.

Back in May, the Patriots Daily Roundtable predicted Moss would be one and done. We bought into the old Moss stereotypes: quitting on the team, the concern only with stats and money, and the character issues. At the time, I labeled him a “Class-A jerk.” 

But from the start, Moss showed he really wanted to be part of this team. He called himself “The second-best receiver out of Marshall” in deference to Troy Brown. He participated in the offseason workouts, though not contractually bound to do so. Though barely knowing the man, he accompanied the team for Marquise Hill’s funeral.

In the few interviews to which he agreed, he was cautious, yet open.

“You know me,” he said early on, “I’m the same as I always was,” a confirmation for many that Old Randy was right around the corner.

Say, whatever happened to Old Randy, anyway?

Somewhere along the way, Moss became the consummate Patriot: smart, hard-working, involved, loving football, and most importantly, focused on winning. He’s been content when the ball was coming his way in bushels, and content when it wasn’t – one of the supposed keys to keeping Randy happy.

Even Terrell Owens’ blatant baiting couldn’t coax Moss out of his happy place:

“I don’t really get into that. I just wanted to come out there and do what I could to help my team win this game. I didn’t really want to really feed off what he was saying or the hype of a game between two 81s. I have a job to do, that’s to go out there and try to catch touchdowns, and get first downs, and that’s what I tried to do today.”

In hindsight, it’s little wonder Randy Moss and Bill Belichick connected.

They’re both prodigious talents, sharing a deep understanding of and love of the game, and they both profess to wanting to win above all else. Neither suffers fools lightly, and so share a healthy mistrust of the media. The media returns the mistrust in kind, always suspecting ulterior motives over the plain truth of what they say.

They’re kindred spirits.

When Moss broke his months-long media silence, it wasn’t to fire back at Owens. It was to lavish praise upon his quarterback and coach, and to marvel at the Patriots’ method of doing business.

“I enjoy it. I come to work every day, I love seeing the guys, love the camaraderie in the locker room and going out there to practice every day. We have fun. But at the same time, you all have heard about the humble pie. Coach Belichick has a tight grasp on us; he doesn’t let us get too ahead of ourselves. At the same time, he lets us enjoy what we’re doing.”

Sounds like a happy man. One who might be sticking around a while.

Legend has it Old Randy rears up when his team starts losing. But come on, when’s that likely to happen?

Inside Gillette

logoby Christopher Price
chris@patriotsdaily.com

As Tom Brady walked off the field at Texas Stadium Sunday afternoon, the 30-year-old quarterback cemented himself as the early-season favorite to win his first NFL MVP Award. Against the Cowboys, on the biggest stage in football, he finished 31-for-46 for 388 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-27 pounding of Dallas.

Over the years, New England football fans have almost grown numb to Brady’s brilliance. But this season, buoyed by a new set of receivers, he’s taken everything to a new level statistically. “I’ve always had a saying that Peyton Manning has his wide receivers, why can’t Tom have his?” Randy Moss asked reporters after the win over the Cowboys. “Now that Tom has his, we’ll see.”

What we’re seeing is one of the finest six-game stretches of football ever played by No. 12. But where does it stack up when compared to some of his other work? Sunday’s game — and the overall numbers he’s compiled since the start of the season — sent us back into the archives to recall some of the other great six-game intervals of Brady’s career. Here’s our Top 5.

5. In a six-game span from Oct. 30 through Dec. 2 of 2006, the Patriots went 4-2. In that span, Brady had an almost pedestrian 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions, but an impressive 1,642 passing yards and a stellar completion percentage of 65.7. His best game came on a Monday night against the Vikings in Minnesota, when he absolutely dissected the opposition by throwing for 372 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-7 blowout. A four-touchdown, zero-interception effort in a win over the Packers at Lambeau is a close second.

4. Midway through the 2003 season, Brady had a similar six-game span — the touchdown passes weren’t there, but he was throwing for plenty of yards. In that stretch, he had nine touchdowns and five interceptions, but an eye-popping 1,708 passing yards and a 61.5 completion percentage. The Patriots won all six games, and Brady was never better than when he tossed for 350 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-26 win over the Broncos. (You can be forgiven if Brady’s performance in that one is forgotten — it’s more famous as the Monday Night contest where Bill Belichick had the Patriots take a late safety, which led to a late game-winning touchdown pass from Brady to David Givens.) In that same span, Brady had a 368-yard performance in an overtime win against the Texans in Houston.

3. In the first six games of the 2002 season, Brady had 15 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 1,749 passing yards and a 65.4 completion percentage while the team went 3-3. He racked up most of those numbers the first three weeks of the season — three wins — and had arguably one of the finest games of his career in a 41-38 overtime win against the Chiefs in Week 3 when he threw for 410 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception on a sun splashed day at Gillette Stadium. He set single-game career-highs in yardage and total completions (39) in the win.

2. At the start of the 2005 season, Brady had a six-game stretch where he threw for an amazing 1,821 yards — the most yardage he’s ever had in that length of time — but had just eight touchdowns, four interceptions, and a completion percentage of 62.7 while the team was going 3-3. It’s interesting to note that perhaps his best game in this stretch was a contest where he failed to throw a touchdown pass — a dramatic 23-20 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. In that one, protected by a pair of rookies on the left side of the offensive line, he threw for 372 yards (including a 12-for-12 effort on his final dozen attempts of the afternoon) and engineered a two-minute drive that culminated with a game-winning 43-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal with one second left. Second place goes was a razor-sharp effort against the Falcons in Atlanta, where he completed 82 percent of his passes (the second-best single-game mark of his career) and three touchdowns in a 31-28 victory.

1. This season, through six games, Brady already has 21 touchdowns and just two interceptions to go along with 1,771 passing yards and a completion percentage of 72.5. Sunday marked a career pinnacle for Brady on a number of levels, including touchdown passes (five) and passing yardage in a non-overtime game (388 yards). In addition, he became the first player in league history to throw for three or more touchdowns in each of a season’s first six games.

FIVE THINGS TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK

1. Tom Brady in South Florida. If we know one thing about Brady, it’s that nothing cools him off quicker than a trip to Miami. The Patriots quarterback has had some of the worst performances of his career against the Dolphins in Miami, and is 2-4 as a starter in Joe Robbie Stadium/Pro Player Park/Pro Player Stadium/Dolphins Stadium/Dolphin Stadium. Two of the four times he’s thrown for less than 100 yards in a game as a starter, it’s happened in Miami. Last year, Brady threw for just 78 yards and was sacked four times in a 21-0 loss.

2. If the Dolphins try and take a page from the Cowboys’ when it comes to defending the Patriots. Brady’s amazing numbers aside, Dallas was better than any team this season when it came to getting pressure on the quarterback, sacking him three times. Miami simply may not have the defensive talent to succeed using the same plan, but that doesn’t mean they won’t at least give it a try.

3. Is Laurence Maroney feeling chatty? Most weeks, you can gauge the overall health of the running back by his availability with the media. If he talks, chances are he’s playing. If he’s out of sight, chances are he’s probably not playing — as has been the case the last few weeks. With both Maroney and Sammy Morris questionable (Belichick said he had no update on Morris’ status yesterday), the New England running game could hinge on veterans Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans this week in Miami.

4. If the New England run defense can keep its streak alive. The Patriots have not allowed a running back to go over 100 yards in the last seven games (including last year’s playoffs). San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson was the last running back to break the century mark, rushing for 123 in last year’s AFC Divisional Playoff. The closest to get to the century mark since L.T. was Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch, who had 74 rushing yards against the Patriots in Week 3.

5. The New England secondary. It’s unlikely the Patriots will be seriously tested against quarterback Cleo Lemon and the rest of the Dolphins, but New England shuffled their secondary last week against Dallas on several occasions, playing James Sanders and Rodney Harrison together at safety and Eugene Wilson seeing time in the nickel. Much of that was an attempt to combat the Dallas passing attack, but the personnel combinations in the secondary do bear watching this Sunday.

STAT OF THE WEEK

230. The number of points the Patriots have scored through six games. New England is on pace to easily break the Vikings’ single-season mark of 556 points in 1998.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“We were behind? Really? Man, I don’t even remember that.” —Patriots linebacker Rosevelt Colvin, speaking with reporters after Sunday’s win over the Cowboys. New England trailed for the first time all season in the second half, 24-21, before outscoring Dallas 27-3 down the stretch.

Christopher Price is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the Patriots since 2001 for Boston Metro. He’s served a contributor to ESPN.com, SI.com, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post and The Miami Herald. His book “The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower” is released today by Thomas Dunne Books. He can be reached at chris@patriotsdaily.com.

Men Separated from ‘Boys

logoby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

The Dallas Cowboys thought they had the New England Patriots for a minute there yesterday, as they rallied for a 24-21 third-quarter lead after having trailed by two touchdowns.

No dice.

The Patriots exploded for 27 points over the game’s final 25 minutes – to just 3 from the overwhemled Cowboys – to close out a 48-27 win as the ‘Boys were separated from the NFL’s real men in Dallas.

Tom Brady continued his stratospheric play with a franchise-best 5 touchdown passes, and Wel Welker and Donte Stallworth combined for 250 yards and 3 scores as the Patriots ran their record to 6-0 for only the second time in team history.

The Patriots defense teetered on the edge for a good bit of the day but gathered themselves to hold the Cowboys to just three first downs after Dallas briefly (for about 5 minutes) took their three-point third-quarter lead.

The Cowboys – one and done playoff losers in 06 – thought their 5-0 record to start this season entitled them to join the legion of knuckleheads casting aspersions on the Patriots as they prepared to face the team that had won 3 world championships since Dallas’s last playoff win.

New England did their talking on the field, getting off to an increasingly typical 14-0 lead on the strength of Brady throws to Randy Moss and Welker, while Dallas’s vaunted offense struggled to gain even a first down against the Patriots defense.

But a second-quarter breakdown between Brady and Stallworth left the MVP candidate holding the ball too long as Greg Ellis rushed from the edge, and the resulting fumble took a bunny hop to Ellis’s linemate Jason Hatcher, who raced 29 yards untouched for Dallas’s first touchdown. New England’s lead was suddenly tightened to 14-10.

Even a 7 minute New England drive that ended with Welker’s second score and a 21-10 lead was not enough to dissuade Dallas and quarterback Tony Romo, as America’s Next Top Mimbo began to shred the center of the New England secondary with repeated open throws to Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton and Terrell Owens.

Romo rolled over the Pats’ suddenly porous pass defense to lead Dallas on a 3 minute, 84 yard touchdown drive that brought them within four and forced Brady to finish the first half on his right knee.

Brady started the second half hardly better, as an invigorated Dallas defense opened the third-quarter by forcing a quick three-and-out, and after a Chris Hanson punt, Dallas again tore upfield (behind Julius Jones, who had two consecutive carries that totaled 43 yards) with a 74 yard touchdown drive in just over 3 1/2 minutes. Crayton’s 6 yard scoring pass from Romo left the Patriots trailing in the second half for the first time this season.

And it was then that New England took over and showed the rest of the league just how far the Patriots rivals have yet to come.

The Patriots scored on every one of their remaining 5 possessions. First, Brady regained the lead with a short scoring toss to Kyle Brady (in relief of Benjamin Watson, who was lost early to an ankle injury) that closed out a 5+ minute drive that did much to cool off the boiling Dallas offense. A short field goal drive followed (after a spectacular Moss near-touchdown in the right corner was disallowed on a replay challenge), and then Brady slammed the door with a perfectly thrown 4th quarter pass down the middle that Stallworth gathered in before breaking a tackle and racing for a 69 yard touchdown that gave the Pats a 14 point lead with just 12 minutes left.

When Dallas could muster only a field goal in response, the game was over. But just in case the Cowboys hadn’t yet gotten the picture, the Patriots poured it on.

New England held the ball for 12 of the final 15 minutes, and only let up after Kyle Eckel’s short touchdown run with just 19 seconds left finished a drive that began with a Junior Seau interception at the Dallas 20.

Wade Phillips, who would do well to lose Peter King’s cell phone number, may have expected the Pats to take a knee to avoid running up the score (as they had done in previous weeks), but if he did, he was dead wrong. The Pats pounded away, much as Phillips had done during the week, as he openly questioned (even mocked) the legitimacy of New England’s success this decade. His after-the-fact denials did little to dissuade Bill Belichick from pushing the ball across the goal line a final, emphatic time.

When it was over, Phillips could barely look at Belichick as the two exchanged a terse post-game handshake. He wouldn’t have the balls to be pissed at Belichick for running up the score after Phillips has spent the week having a few Spy-gate laughs at Belichick and his team’s expense, would he? He couldn’t be that stupid, could he?

Evidently, he could. Which may explain why his cocky 5-0 team just took a 21 point loss in their own ballpark, thanks in large part to their coach’s big mouth.

Any more Spy-Gate questions, fellas?

The Sunday Links, October 14, 2007

cupby Scott Benson
scott@patriotsdaily.com

We’ll get to today’s matchup of unbeatens in a minute, but first, let’s spend a moment with Dan Shaughnessy.

I can’t stay up until one-freaking-thirty in the morning to watch a baseball game. So the minute I got up today, I headed straight for an update from my trusty Patriots Daily laptop (batteries not included).

Perhaps I should have headed somewhere other than the Globe for my Sox score (honestly, at 5 in the morning, the Globe sports page isn’t much to blog about. The Herald and Pro Jo are alert and ready, while the Globe is stuck on the previous day), but that’s what I did, and the only mention of the baseball outcome was in a column written by Shaughnessy, who, as you know, I Don’t Read. But shit, what was the score? Who won the game?

Well, ol’ CHB had the outcome, all right. He stuck it awkwardly in the lead of the column he really wanted to write:

In a time-honored tradition, the Red Sox and Cleveland Indians staged an epic duel into the wee hours last night at Fenway Park.

The Indians won, 13-6, in 11 innings, and tied the American League Championship Series at one game apiece.

On a weekend when New England’s unbeaten football teams inspire dreams of BCS title games and Super Bowls, the Red Sox reminded us that the World Series march comes first.

If I had a nickel for every time this elitist fop has written those words, or a variation of them, since February 3rd, 2002, I’d be typing on a solid gold keyboard right now.

Just seems a little funny that this, his favorite cultural ‘observation’, is how Shaughnessy chooses to describe a game in which the home team allows seven runs in extra innings to lose a playoff game in their own park. Epic, Danny? Maybe if you didn’t finish your column in the fifth inning, you’d come off a little more topical, and a little less like a paranoid, shit-stirring douchebag with a massive superiority complex.

Norton, myself and the rest of the guys down at the Racoon Lodge apologize to Bozo and the rest of the cultural warriors for perhaps favoring the oblong ball over the round one now and again, thus offending their delicate sensibilities. I suppose we’re fit to drive Dan’s busses and tend to his sewage, but if we occasionally get a little boisterous about Sundays spent someplace other than the lyric little bandbox, we’ve got to be slapped down.

This, of course, is why I Don’t Read Dan Shaughnessy.

On to the morning papers, and today’s ‘epic’ showdown between the Pats and the Dallas Cowboys. Hey, look, the Globe sports page finally updated!

Bob Hohler leads off with a look at Tony ‘Dan Cortese’ Romo, the 15-game wunderkind that will lead the Cowboys today. I don’t know if Hohler coined the term ‘Romosexual’ to describe the fawning legions of Romo fans, especially in the national media, but if he did, he gets the first ever Sunday Links Gold Star.

In other game coverage, Christopher Gasper breaks down the Randy Moss and Terrell Owens subplot, and then checks in with the surprisingly consistent Eugene Wilson. Jim McBride thinks this matchup is even (it isn ‘t), and goes a little Romoesexual himself when he calls the signal caller ” effervescent.” This sounds to me like the haughty cousin of “he’s having FUN out there!” God help us.

Mike Reiss has his weekly league notes, with a look at the friendship between Bob Kraft and Jerry Jones, some PUP thoughts (Richard Seymour and others, like Troy Brown and Chad Jackson, are eligible to begin practicing this week) and more on the recent visit from Chuck Fairbanks, the second greatest coach in Patriots history.

Over in the Herald, Karen Gurgian says Laurence Maroney is out for today’s game. No sweat – I love the balance Sammy Morris brings to the Pats high-octane passing game. John Tomase also looks at Moss and Owens, before wondering if the culture in the Patriots locker room is changing. I’d say as long as people like Brady and Bruschi are drawing breath, it won’t change that much. John also says Dallas is looking to get its due today while adding just the right amount of skepticism as to their claims. Tomase also has five things to look for at 4:15 today.

In the Pro Jo, Jim Donaldson posits on – wait for it – Moss and Owens. JD does grab a beauty from TO though – apparently, it is God’s Plan that Owens be controversial. What’s God got against the rest of us?

Shalise Manza Young reminds us that, unlike the Cowboys, this is not the first big game for the Pats. Oh, snap! Is SMY deliberately trying to win my heart with this stuff, or does she just come by these articles naturally? Whatever! Talk about effervescent. Shalise gives the Pats the edge in her weekly scouting report, and spends a few minutes with backup linebacker Pierre Woods, who, like my old friend Brian, doesn’t like food that is TOO SPICEY.

Rounding out the six-state* regional coverage (the asterisk is for stubborn Vermont) is David Heuschkel of the Courant, who reminds us the Pats have a tough road today. David, always with the perspective. I hate that about him. Mike Lowe of the Press Herald likes the Pats in a high scorer today, and says all eyes will be on the guys under center.

It looks like Tennessee and Tampa for the early game on CBS, followed by national coverage of the Pats at 4. Fox offers us, inexplicably, the Redskins against the effervescent Brett Favre at 1. Uggh.

As always, you can visit patriotslinks.com for more. I’ll be back after the game.

College Scout, October 13, 2007

logoby Greg Doyle
greg@patriotsdaily.com

It’s hard to believe, but here we are in mid-October, with important games all over the schedule. Let’s take a look at a few.

Boston College at Notre Dame (3:30 NBC): We’ve looked at the 4th ranked and undefeated Boston College Eagles before. Take a look at the September 15th College Scout to highlight a few of their top players. For Notre Dame, the September 1st column looked at some of the key players for the Irish. A few other players in the game that weren’t mentioned in those columns but are worth watching include:

Boston College RB Andre Callender (#32): Runs hard, but doesn’t have great speed or size. Seems to be just a notch below an NFL player, but he’ll get a look. Can catch the ball and has some shiftiness. Not a top prospect, but on his way to around 1,000 yards and has been a productive 4-year player. The good year gives him a chance to get noticed and with a good Combine performance (assuming he is even invited), he might have a chance to be drafted. A guy who is on the fringe who may stick at the bottom of an NFL roster or could end up being a good player in Canada.

Boston College LB JoLonn Dunbar (#40): A slightly undersized, but athletic linebacker who runs well. Seems to have a knack for big plays. Started out his career as a running back. A team leader and smart player who can cover. May have a shot with a 1-gap team if he can be a above-average special teams player.

Notre Dame DE Trevor Laws (#98): Has been one of the more productive guys on Notre Dame’s defense this year. Learning how to play 3-4 end, so that may interest the Patriots. A bit short at 6’1″ but has some size. Second day draft pick type.

Georgia at Vanderbilt (6:00 PM ESPN2): Georgia, 4-2 and in the midst of a down year, heads to perennial SEC cellar dwellar Vanderbilt, who is 3-2.

Georgia RB Thomas Brown (#20): Splitting time at running back with Knowshon Moreno. Brown is a short, smallish running back who has some power. Doesn’t overwhelm with his elusiveness or speed, but runs hard. Will finish with around 2,500 career yards, so deserves a look. Late round type.

Georgia WR Sean Bailey (#4): Georgia’s leading receiver this year comes into the game with 53 career catches. Good height and nice athlete. Has good hands, but could bulk up a bit. Has had a torn ACL, but come back nicely this year. Should be drafted.

Vanderbilt DT Theo Horrocks (#54): The kind of low profile defensive line plugger who the Patriots may take a stab at as a project. Has size, some productivity and works hard. Good strength. There is something to work with here and he has the size/strength combo to become a 2-gap lineman. Yet he is low profile, so the Patriots could look at him as a late round pick or free agent.

Vanderbilt DE Curtis Gatewood (#49): At 6’3″ 245, he has prototypical linebacker size. Plays mostly down in college, perhaps the Patriots could look at him as a linebacker convert if they are convinced he is athletic and can run well enough. Has good pass rush ability.

Vanderbilt LB Jonathan Goff (#47): One of the better linebackers in the SEC and plays inside. Makes a lot of tackles and plays. Has good size. Could be a first day draft pick and may attract interest from the Patriots due to his size and productivity. Grew up in Boston and starred for St. John’s Prep.

Others to watch: Over on Fox Sports at 6:30 PM, there is a huge Big 12 game as Oklahoma heads to undefeated Missouri. For Oklahoma, a key player will be shifty RB Allen Patrick (#23) who we have looked at before. Keeping the high-powered Missouri offense off the field will be key, and the Sooners will need a big game from Patrick. For Missouri, RB Tony Temple (#22) puts up big numbers and was a big recruit out of high school. His size doesn’t overwhelm you at 5’9″ 200, and Missouri runs a lot of option, which leads to big runs and big numbers even from average backs. But Temple does have speed and elusiveness. He’ll be drafted. Has not shown an ability to catch passes however. Over on ESPN2 at 9:15 PM, Arizona State takes on Washington at home. Arizona State RB Ryan Torain (#26) should be one of the best running backs in the draft and is fun to watch. He has size, power and speed. Check him out.

Patriots Roundtable, October 12, 2007

logoby the Patriots Daily Staff
feedback@patriotsdaily.com

The 5-0 Patriots are headed to Dallas this weekend to take on the 5-0 Cowboys in a big game that has gotten even bigger with some latent Spy-gate sniping this week.

Let’s line up the Row of Chairs for their weekly forecast of impending doom for the Patriots’ fat, balding and slow-witted opponents. Gentlemen?

The Patriots struggled a bit with a pesky Browns team last week, despite a late defensive score that covered the 16.5 point spread. Did you see anything that particularly concerned you?

Greg Doyle: Nothing in particular, though I agree they weren’t particularly sharp. Perhaps there is a blueprint there, however, for teams to attempt to shut down Randy Moss at least a bit and the Patriots, as a result. In this case vs. the Browns, the Patriots had Donte Stallworth and Ben Watson to turn to and that worked. But throw in an injury or two and suddenly there are less options. Forget about the undefeated talk, I’d go beyond that and wish some media and fans would stop penciling them in as Super Bowl champs. There is way too far to go, too many injuries to every team that have yet to occur, and other blueprints built upon this one. Its a long season. Some coaches are smart and the Patriots aren’t going to score 34-38 points every week. I like the Pats chances, but there are other teams out there who can play and coach too.

Scott Benson: I know Moss once again played most of the snaps and as a result drew coverage away from other players, but I wonder about that sort of situation long-term, if other teams are as successful at the Browns were in removing him from the action. I wonder if the Pats would lose a lot of their explosiveness.

Tim Jordan: They did a great job of double covering him, but Brady missed him on plays where he was open and would’ve gotten big gains. I don’t think the problem was scheme, but execution. We’ll get a chance to see this week against another 3-4.

Scott: I saw it the other way – I thought it was scheme that the Patriots had problems with. I know what you’re saying about the blown plays, but it seemed to me there were a lot more plays where Cleveland executed the best pass defense the Patriots had seen this season. I just think the Browns didn’t have the horses along the front seven to pull it completely off. They didn’t get enough pressure on Brady to stop him from finding his second, third and fourth options, and they had to miss Ted Washington inside, where Sammy Morris ran effectively.

Kevin Thomas: Well, I guess one question is can any defense do both–cover everybody downfield AND get enough pressure to stop Brady from going through his progressions until he finds an open guy? It seems like most teams will have to chose one or the other. Dallas is one team that could do it though, since they can exert a lot of pressure on the quarterback without selling out in pass coverage.

Travis Graham: I think the Browns were focused on taking away the passing game in the second half. That put a lot of weight on Morris’ shoulders to get first downs. He had a very good game, but might have trouble in the future if he is to carry the team. Getting Maroney back will help the offense in the second half of games when their legs will be fresher.

Has Morris taken over as the lead back in New England?

Travis: He will obviously be when Maroney’s out, but when they are both healthy I would still give the edge to Maroney. I love the value he brings to the team in the fourth quarter because of his speed.

Scott: The speed is always good, but the question really is Maroney’s health. He’s of diminished value if he’s constantly nicked up. I agree the Pats need them both, but Morris may be the only one equipped to be there every week.

Tim: I really think it’s important that they have both guys making significant contributions if they are going to continue to dominate. I am expecting Maroney to be on the field Sunday in Dallas.

Bruce Allen: I wouldn’t be surprised if they have been being over-cautious with Maroney with the thoughts of getting him ready for this game. Morris has been solid, but he’s not your lead back for an entire season. Morris has been terrific against the Bengals and Browns, but the Patriots will need both guys against the Cowboys front.

Let’s turn our attention ahead, and this week’s interconference matchup with the NFC leading Dallas Cowboys. How will the Pats offense fare against the Dallas defense?

Greg: I think pretty well. But then again, if Maroney is out again and Kevin Faulk got hurt last week and it affects his availability, there could be issues. They should be able to throw. Cornerback Anthony Henry is out for Dallas and he was playing very well early on. Safety Roy Williams can be great at times, but at other times really struggles in coverage. Look for the Pats to be able to move the ball.

Tim: All Phillips coached teams hit hard and Dallas is no exception. They are a physical team with speed, just like SD’s defense was last year. This is the week that you are ecstatic that we have a revamped offense this year. They probably won’t light it up like we saw in the first 4 games, but they are good enough to score on anyone and I like our chances against the Dallas offense after watching Monday night’s game.

Kevin: Should we read anything into the fact that Dallas’ worst two games this year came in their two prior games vs. the AFC, against maybe the bottom two teams in the conference? Obviously, they didn’t play very well against Buffalo on Monday, which one could chaulk up to just a fluke bad game, but they also trailed deep into the 3rd quarter at Miami, before turning it on late in the 2nd half (aided by 4 Dolphin turnovers). Could the Cowboys be another one of these NFC fraud teams, like the big bad Vikings were a year ago? (Whatever happened to those guys?). I think they’re probably much better than that, but its tough to tell with so little data to go on.

Dan Snapp: On the Big Show on Monday, Belichick spoke of the Dallas defense in reverent tones, and it was obvious it wasn’t the typical lip service he gives every upcoming opponent. He specifically praised the physicality of the team.

Tim: Another interesting byproduct of the Brown game was the way Crennell defended the Patriots offense negated their ability to spread it and go to a 5 wide set (usually with a no-huddle to limit substitutions). This is a tactic we’ve seen from BB in the past when he wants to get a better understanding of what the defense’s gameplan is. The Cowboys have a much better front 7 and have been able to generate a rush without sending extra defenders to the line, but have a fairly weak secondary. It makes me think that we won’t be seeing the spread this week and that they’ll keep a TE in to help the O-Line and let the WR’s try and win the matchups. With the stout middle of the Cowboys defense maybe we see more quick slants that have a similar result as a run? If so, Welker could have one of his 8-9 catch days.

The Cowboys offense has been as prolific as New England’s. The Pats defense comes off a week where they allowed 350 yards and three scores to an undermanned Browns offense. Will they bounce back to slow down Tony Romo, Terrell Owens and the Cowboy backs?

Greg: These guys can move the ball, particularly in the air. Terrell Owens is still a force to be reckoned with, as is tight end Jason Witten. Tony Romo is as good as anyone in moving around, buying time and throwing on the run. They need to keep him in the pocket if they can and he does make mistakes on occasion.

Scott: I agree, I think keeping him in the pocket is the key to the Patriots controlling this game. I noticed on Monday night when things really started to go off the rails for them, they came back out and right away got Romo moving outside the pocket, which immediately began to free up Whitten and others. It was like they were getting him out there where he could see and be comfortable. It reminded me of the way Denver used to handle Jake Plummer. If Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas and the ends can turn Romo back in, the Pats will be in business.

Tim: The Plummer comparison is great. Most every positive play he had he was out of the pocket running. All the picks came when he was in the pocket. Whiten and Owens make for a formidable duo in the middle of the field and both freelance well, finding opening in the defense. Both are big targets with good hands too, so when Romo improvises he’s got two playmaking safety valves. Until Buffalo, I assumed we’d be looking at a game where both teams scored in the 30′s. After watching that game, even accounting for the Monday night factor, I don’t see it. They are a very good offense, but it looks to me like their success is predicated upon being sound, physical, and fast. It seemed to lack sophistication. They couldn’t adjust to what the Bills were taking away and Romo made poor decisions as a result. I am now of the mind that we limit them to under 20. Romo is going to be confused.

Dan: Regarding Kevin’s point earlier about the Vikings, the Patriots gave the league the blueprint to beating them (spread ‘em out), and everybody’s been following suit ever since. The NFC East should take notice: the Pats are going to give the blueprint to controlling Romo. It should be along the lines of what’s already been discussed here: keep him in the pocket, minimize the broken plays, take away his favorite threat, and force him to be disciplined in order to beat you. Romeo Crennel said Sunday:

“They have quite a few weapons and you have to try to pick your poison a little bit against these guys. Moss has been killing people and we didn’t want him to kill us, so we died by the hands of somebody else.”

I’m sure Crennel defensed the Pats the way Belichick would: take out Moss, and hope the other guys don’t kill ya. They’ll do the same thing against Dallas, trying to remove Owens as an option. Are the Cowboys’ secondary options enough to kill the Pats?

Any thoughts on special teams? Who gets the edge here?

Kevin: Their rookie kicker, Nick Folk, sure looked impressive on Monday night, burying back-to-back 53-yarders with the game on the line. Lets be honest, how confident are you that Gostkowski makes even one of those kicks?

Bruce: Why has Gostkowski gotten a bad rep among so many people? I think overall he’s been solid, and he certainly showed in the playoffs last season that he’s not afraid of the big moments. Both last season and this he’s had a few early season hiccups, but he’s not a concern of mine long term.

Scott: I think some of it comes from not being Adam Vinatieri, but he’s also young and a little inconsistent. The thing I’ve noticed is that at times, when he’s really stroking it on kickoffs, he seems not to hit the ball as cleanly and consistently on placements. When he’s in a groove with placements, he doesn’t seem to hit the kickoffs as well. That was the case Sunday, when I thought he was as smooth on the field goals as he has been this year, yet his kickoffs weren’t anything special in terms of length. It was probably by design, as they were all well covered.

Tim: Sure, they have the Mighty Wind kicking for them, but this Dallas special teams is far from perfect. They’ve allowed a returns for TD’s in consecutive weeks and McGee’s for Buffalo should have been the winning points. This matchup is a wash, maybe a slight advantage for the Stars because Chris Hanson has been the worst player on the field for 3 weeks.

Hey everybody (I’ve been watching Will Farrell do Haray Carey on You Tube), how about that coaching matchup? The Cowboys are 5-0. Is Wade Phillips outcoaching Bill Parcells?

Dan: Might Parcells still be coaching had he jumped off the Bledsoe ship sooner? Where was Mo Lewis when Tuna needed him?

Greg: I honestly think Phillips is a buffoon. His cheerleader antics rankle me a bit. Like a fatter version of Pete Carroll. But, I’ll give him credit for this….his team is talented and his K.C. Jones-like hands-off, laissez faire approach probably mixes well with this level of talent. At least for one year.

Tim: The guy has some pretty unique body language though. I like watching him waddle in double time off the field. In fact, he could be the most intimidating waddler in the league. He’s one of those guys who needs to generate momentum with his arms for his legs to move and I think the No Fun League needs more of that. He’s a throwback in that regard. He reminded me of Pappy O’Daniel at the campaign rally in Oh Brother Where Art Thou? Phillips provided bulletin board material this week twice. Once when he joked about going to the movies with Belichick (veiled reference to the camera infraction) for some laughs at a pool press conference and a day later to Peter King when he said that their titles were compromised due to the video transgression. I am still trying to process this. The head coach of an underdog team calls out the other team’s coach the week of the biggest game of the season? Really? The HEAD COACH, not some rookie from the U? This guy has big balls. He can’t see them without a mirror, and he probably can’t even touch them with those beetlejuice arms, but he’s got them.

Scott: He’s got to pay, pure and simple. Norv Phillips has got to pay. He ought to be paying attention to his own house, and maybe his backwards hat wearing quarterback/Real World housemate wouldn’t cough up five-pick national television appearances. You know what, Dan Cortese? You’re not good enough for Carrie Underwood. Anyway, Matt Mosely of ESPN’s Hashmarks chronicled Shecky Phillips at work this week, working blue on Spygate, and the only thing I can say to Bum’s kid is that come 4 o’clock Sunday, there’s gonna be a more hell than a little bit about what he said this week.

Let’s have a final score.

Dan: Pats, 28-17.

Kevin: In the past 4 calendar years, the Patriots have gone 15-1 against the NFC. They’ve beaten every team in the conference except Washington (the only team they haven’t played at least once), and gone 7-1 against playoff teams, including 3-0 against NFC champion teams. Bottom line: they’ve owned the NFC in recent years, are arguably playing as well as they ever have, and I’m not yet convinced Dallas measures up with the cream of the AFC. Patriots 31, Dallas 27.

Tim: Pats 24-17, and the Cowboys lose a draft pick next week when video evidence of using the cheerleaders in a distracting manner is presented. This leads to speculation about the legitimacy of Phillip’s 11 win season 8 years ago in Buffalo.

Scott: Patriots crush them, 38-13. These people are keep flapping their gums and they’re going to get another championship they can bitch about.

Outside Foxborough – Undefeated Numbers

fo.jpgBy Bill Barnwell
bill@patriotsdaily.com

Although the Cowboys almost didn’t make it, their narrow victory on Monday does present us with a rarity coming up this week: a matchup of two teams, both 5-0. In fact, since 1983, there’s been exactly one 5-0 vs. 5-0 game, and it also involved the Patriots. In 2004, the 5-0 Patriots met the 5-0 Jets in Week 6. The end result? A 13-7 victory for the Patriots, and while both teams made the playoffs, the Patriots won the Super Bowl. So, then, if the Patriots beat the Cowboys this week, we can just pencil the Patriots in as champions and move on with our lives, right? No? Oh, statistics are annoying.

Obviously, there’s much more to the whole winning-the-Super Bowl-thing than going 6-0 and beating a 5-0 team. What we can do, though, is attempt to quantify what going 6-0 instead of 5-1 might do for the Patriots.

To do that, we’ll take the game-by-game records of every season from 1983-on, excluding the strike season of 1987. We’ll do game-by-game instead of week-by-week so that performances match up over the different bye week patterns that we’ve seen throughout the last 20+ years.

First, let’s see how likely a team is to even be 5-0 in the first place.

From this, we can see that 5.4% of teams have been 5-0 following Week 5. That means that that, on average, we could expect 1.72 teams a year to start their seasons 5-0. Now, you can understand how unlikely it is (a .28% chance, actually) that two 5-0 teams would be meeting when there’s not even a 50/50 shot of two 5-0 teams even existing come Week 5. In 2006, only Indianapolis and Chicago were 5-0, and in 2005, it was only Indy.Remember that this is based on real data, not simulations, so while there’s obviously a chance of a team going 16-0, because it hasn’t happened in the timeframe, 0.0% of the teams have won 16 games out of 16.

While it’s good to know the Patriots are one of a rare breed, what does that mean? Well, what we can do is compare those winning percentages week-by-week to a team’s end result; namely, how many wins did a team that started the year 5-0 average?

So, then, the Patriots catapulted themselves from a team that averaged 11.3 wins per season last week to one that now averages 12.2 wins per season. If they were to beat the Cowboys next week, they would go even higher and average 12.7 wins per season, but if they lose, they pretty much are back to where they were following their fourth game.

The bigger question, then, is what that means for the Patriots playoff chances. How often do teams that win 11 games make the playoffs? Or, alternately, how often does a team that starts 5-0 make the playoffs?

So, a team that wins 11 games will make the playoffs 98.1% of the time. The only 11-5 team to not make the playoffs in the course of this study were the 1985 Broncos, who missed out on a tiebreaker to two other 11-5 wild card teams, one of whom was, of course, the Eason Express.

On the other hand, a team that goes 5-0 will make the playoffs 94.1% of the time. A team that goes 6-0 will make it 96.0% of the time, but a team that’s 5-1 will only make it 85.4% of the time.

Finally, using this data, we can actually answer the age-old question. What’s the most important game a team can play? Judging by the playoff percentages, it’s actually a tie. In Week 9, a 4-4 team can really determine its destiny with its performance. If they lose, their odds of making the playoffs are a woeful 11.8%; if they win, an even 50%.

That 38.2% difference based upon the outcome of a sole game also comes up, not surprisingly, in Week 16. An 8-7 team is on the hotseat this time. Win, and you’ll make the playoffs 50.7% of the time; lose, and it’s only a 12.5% shot. Maybe some games really are more important than others.

Bad Behavior has blocked 778 access attempts in the last 7 days.