Steve Young just claimed on ESPN that the Patriots were involved in trade talks with the Carolina Panthers for the 14th selection in the draft. Carolina eventually traded the pick to New England’s arch rival, the New York Jets.

The Jets, who no doubt are wearing shit eating grins right now, selected cornerback Darrelle Revis.

The speculation, naturally, was that the Patriots and Jets were dueling for the same player. Cue up the Border War graphics. I didn’t anticipate this angle today, stupidly. If Young is right, we’ll hear this story again.

In other news, both Patrick Willis (#11, to the Niners) and Adam Carriker (#13, to the Rams) have been scratched off the Fab Fifteen list.

Division rival Buffalo surprised with their choice of Marshawn Lynch at #12. They do need a runner, and their surprise choice last year, Donte Whitner, worked out well enough to give Marv and company the benefit of the doubt.

Pittsburgh just topped off the top 15 by taking LB Lawrence Timmons, another F15 guy, though one of the least interesting ones.

Eight picks to go and the Pats are on the clock, unless they try to trade up again. There may no longer be any reason to, I guess.

Was Darrelle Revis was the highest rated player on the Pats board?

This is what makes the draft great.

We’ll see how turns out in the end, but this spontaneous combustion of the ESPN crew over the Dolphins decision to pass on Brady Quinn (in favor of a 180 lb. receiver and return man) is fantastic. You won’t hear the end of this all weekend.

We’ll also be seeing clips of Quinn sliding for years to come. The Texans just took Okoye, the 19 year old defensive lineman from Nigeria over him.

Just looked at the Mock Masher, which is sort of holding it’s own so far, though nobody had Joe Thomas to Cleveland, or naturally, Ginn at #9.

Each member of the Fab Fifteen I offered this morning is still on the board, though that’s bound to change soon.

The clock has been started and now we’re all sitting around waiting on the NFL’s crazy uncle (we keep him in the cellar). Ain’t that a bitch.

The Moss rumors persist as the day rolls on. The rumors indicate a second day pick, perhaps a 4th (123), in exhange for the recalcitrant receiver. We’ll see how serious this is, I guess.

My wife has decided to clean the goddam oven. You know what that smells like, right?

Here comes the pick - it’s Russell. Al Davis, with the grain? It’s already a strange day.

Hey, Goodell is like the really outgoing but strict high school principal. It’s like Ken Reeves is running the league.

By Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

After weeks of anticipation, the annual NFL Draft is now only hours away.

Though a football won’t be kicked, thrown or lugged in anger today, the draft has become one of the premier events on the NFL calendar. I have come to look forward to this weekend nearly as much as opening day, or the playoffs. Even with the well earned knowledge that some, or all, of today’s picks may end us as mere road apples on the road to the Super Bowls of the future. It’s still a bit like Christmas in April. And I happen to root for a good team - imagine if you’re an Arizona Cardinals fan? These next two days have got to be the only two days of the year worth getting out of bed for.

That’s what this is all about - as sage Taylor Hicks instructs us, it’s the possibilities. Today, your team may catch lightning in a bottle. Your team, anchored to the NFL’s ocean floor by it’s homemade concrete overshoes, may at once be transformed.

Hey, it happens. AHEM. It happens.

It happens, in ways great (see above) and small, which is what makes these next two days so much fun. I’m looking forward to sharing a few thoughts about the weekend’s events, of which there are sure to be many. For example, I wake up this morning to find out that the Patriots may be involved in a draft day trade for - wait for it - Randy Moss.

I don’t think we should let that ruin our day. So, from our home office in Our Mother’s Basement, here’s a Top Ten List of Players I’ll Be Watching Today.

15. Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska - I lied, there’s more than ten. You can read profiles for months and still not know who has hip swivel and who has quick muscle twitch, but the comparisons to current NFL players, you remember. Someone compared Carriker to Richard Seymour. That’s all I needed. But he may be a top ten pick. If he’s a Patriot today, it’ll be a majah shockah.

14. Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan - He’s risen up the board to a spot in the early 20’s, according to the mocks. The Giants may take him at 20. Big, fast, athletic tackle, but like Randy Jackson, I’m not feelin’ it tonight, dawg. I don’t know - it was weird for me, man.

13. Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State - The Pats need linebackers, and this guy is a linebacker. Pretty simple. One of those big gazelles that always seem to be in play on day one of the draft. They say he’d bring some pass rush, anyway, but as I recall, he’s a tad inexperienced. He could go as high as 15 to Pittsburgh, but the mocks say it’s almost even that he’ll be on the board at 24.

12. Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida - Another rush linebacker candidate with the usual question marks (position change, inexperience and so on). Still, it’s a need, Moss has some ability, and the mocks say there’s a 40% chance he’ll be on the board when the Pats pick.

11. Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi - The Pats’ greatest need and the draft’s most prototypical fit. Alas, it was not to be. Willis is certain to be off the board by the mid-teens, perhaps to division rival Buffalo at 12. There’s a curiousity factor at 11, too, if you can believe what you hear on the radio (see next player).

10. Reggie Nelson, S, Florida - Grizzled draft veteran Dave Te Thomas was apparently on the radio this week claiming the Pats have targeted Nelson as The Guy in the draft. Yeah, we’ve heard that before (Sean Taylor). Anyway, Thomas is said to have claimed that the Pats and Niners would swap first round picks if the Niners could not get Patrick Willis at 11. The Pats would swoop in and take Nelson at 11. I love draft rumors, even if they’re crazy, or made up, even. All I know about Nelson is that he has one wicked highlight video. Oh, and that some people think he’ll be a little ’slow’ to pick up the game, if you get my drift. The video argued otherwise.

9. Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State - One thing I have accomplished in this draft; I can now type Posluszny pretty fast. I feel like the Pats are kind of being set up with Posluszny by some friends - “no, you’d really like him. I really think you two would hit it off. You’ve got so much in common!” Yet it’s what the friends aren’t saying that really matters. He’s a 50/50 shot to be there at 24, the mocks claim. Well rounded player coming off a pretty good college career, and would certainly upgrade the linebacker group.

8. Lamarr Woodley, DE, Michigan - Woodley actually shows up much farther down the board, in the latter stages of the second round. But here we will apply the Mankins Rule - namely, the Patriots don’t respect my mock spreadsheets. They actually have the gall to pick a guy 28th that I have rated no better than 50th. It’s crazy. I have an alterna-theory that the interest in David Harris masks true affection for Woodley. No reason, except he’s supposed to be one hell of a pass rusher. There’s little question he’d be there at 28, if the Pats really wanted to stick it to my charts.

7. Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland - Speaking of….I liked Wilson as much as I liked anybody that I read about. He fits - I surprised he’s not on the team already. Sadly, he rates too far down the board to be considered. I’m sorry, there’s really nothing we can do. Except to invoke - The Mankins Rule.

6. Jon Beason, LB, Miami - One profile called Beason ‘NFL ready’, and I’ve been stuck on that thought ever since. Lately, I’m told that he is not a precise fit for the Pats, especially in terms of filling the inside need. I’m not sure I care. If he can play - and it seems like a given that he can play - and there seems to be every indication that he can - they can find a way to use him. One thing - in the film clips I saw recently, he just looked kind of small. He was all over the place, but there was nothing there that made you say wow, and it was a freaking highlight film. I’m talking myself right out of this.

5. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas - I feel like the Asante Samuel situation is far from resolved, and even if it was, the Patriots would still need cornerbacks. Houston has a rep for stepping up against elite receivers, but you know how the profiles are: no cornerback is ever well rounded enough. In Houston’s case, he’s not physical enough. I believe in the Pats ability to get the most out of their defensive backs, so Houston remains a Person of Interst at Game Day HQ today. Damn good chance he’ll be there at either pick.

4. Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami - There’s some character concerns that he’s seemingly overcome, but he’s sliding downward as the draft nears just the same. It seems like lately, people are just generally underwhelmed when it comes to Meriweather. But he’s an experienced player that can play two secondary positions, and is almost certain to be on the board when the Pats go on the clock. If they pick him, I’ll allay fears by remembering another safety from Miami, old friend Fred Marion, the best-ever Pats safety not named Rodney Harrison. Thoughts of the wispy Hurricane with the knack for the big play will assuredly tide us over for a few months. Just ask my BSMW message board pal ‘Gamere’. He’ll tell you.

3. Michael Griffin, S, Texas - More and more I find myself thinking this guy would be great, and hit the spot. Tough, athletic, special teams demon. Young safety with some ability and smarts that could develop into a starter and leader. I saw an Internet clip on him, and he came across as a football and family kid all the way. I nearly had to stop the clip to compose myself. All the blocked punts and big hits didn’t hurt, I guess. This is one of those “awwwwww…shit” guys if he goes to anyone else today.

2. David Harris, LB, Michigan - All of a sudden on Monday, we get a rumor saying that the Pats will take Harris, another mid-second round rated player, with the 28th pick in the draft. Which (I hesitate to invoke this) makes sense, because he’s said to be the prototypical run stuffing linebacker. Has all the intangibles too, and suffers only from being sort of an (comparatively speaking) average athlete in the passing game. Even if he has to come off the field on third down, Harris can help right away. That rumor, though - since when do you get something that specific?

1. Aaron Ross, CB, Texas - Another BSMW board colleague, the poster known as ‘Ed Hillel’, has been all over Ross for weeks. I’m thinking he may be right. The best cornerback in the nation last year looks to be the best cornerback on the board when the Pats pick at 24. The addition of a player like Ross, who may have the ability and savvy to start very soon, will give the Pats protection in the Samuel situation, be it this fall or next. And he is one whale of a punt returner. This just seems like the kind of player you should get at pick 24. Which they would have to do, as it seems unlikely he’d be there at 28.

One last thing. As I do on every game day, I offer links to the best thing the newspapers have done in ages - the football blogs. The standard-setter, Reiss’s Pieces, and its friendly rival, The Point After. Albert Breer and John Tomase have combined to do the best Patriots coverage of my lifetime in the run up to this draft. It ain’t easy to edge Mike Reiss is the hustle department, but the Herald guys have done it this time. In matching Reiss’s enthusiasm and curiousity for their subject, they have created such a refereshing approach to football reporting that it makes me wonder why anybody ever thought the boozy, self-important ruminations of a populist insider, or the wise-ass, self-loathing snark of a bitter outsider, was preferrable to an honest, straight-forward love for the sport.

Have a blast today. I’ll be here, so stop in when you can.

by Bruce Allen, Greg Doyle, Scott Benson, Kevin Thomas and Dan Snapp

The NFL Draft is just one day away, so we sent the fabled Roundtable Signal across the skies of Gotham, and once again the valiant Row of Chairs has responded. Though they may be dark and troubled, they make the streets of our fair football town safe for everyone.

In today’s edition, the boys wonder if the Patriots will trade at least one of their first round picks.

Filling in for Bill Barnwell and Tim Jordan, who are both away on assignment (I always wanted to say that), is the newest addition to the Game Day staff, our Youthful Ward Dan Snapp. Dan will be writing a regular column for us this fall, and he’ll start with some post-draft thoughts next week. We look forward to it.

Hit it, boys.

As they do every year, draftniks are saying that there are but a handful of true first first round prospects available this weekend. The Patriots, though slotted late in the round with picks 24 & 28, are the only team with two selections in the first round. Will they actually make two picks in the first round, or will they trade one of the picks and try to get either a future pick or a couple of first day picks this year?

Bruce: I can see either, but I’m leaning towards them making both first round selections. The Logan Mankins selection proved that they’re not afraid to take a guy in the first round if they think he will be a good fit for their system, even if the “experts” have him projected lower. There seem to be a few good fits out there for the Patriots, and I can see them grabbing two guys in the first round.

Greg: I actually think they’ll trade down with the 28th pick and get back to somewhere around 40 and pick up an extra pick for next year. One thing they always like to do around draft time is try to stock up the following year’s draft, if possible. They really haven’t done that yet this year and the trade down of 28 seems the most likely scenario to do so.

Scott: That’s been my feeling all along too; they have two picks in quick succession (more or less), then nothing until pick 91. I hoped they would be able to trade down, still get the guy(s) they wanted, and end up with an additional pick in that area. But the Pro Football Talk rumor on Monday (that they would pick Michigan LB David Harris at 28) reminds me a bit of the Mankins situation. They didn’t trade back there and try to get Mankins at a better ‘value’ - their value mattered more, draftniks be damned. So I don’t think its a slam dunk that they make a move there. Maybe they make their two picks there and reach for the dreadlock wig and Hawaiian shirt. Somebody’s got to stay sober though. Sometime after 9 PM they’ll need to make another pick.

Greg: I agree with that, they could just take a guy they like at 28….like Harris or Josh Wilson even if its a slight “reach” (according to so-called experts). Say they have a guy rated around 34 overall, but they like him, can’t find a good “value” move to get down to around 34….so the smart thing to do is just take the guy you like at 28 and the guy you need. I don’t know why, but I am thinking the two guys they want after they pick 24 are Harris or Wilson. Realistically, those two guys fall somewhere between 28 and 91. So they could move back to somewhere between those numbers and get one of the two and pick up a pick for next year. However, if they don’t get the deal they want and there isn’t a guarantee they’ll get one of the two at the spot they drop to, they could just take one at 28. But then again, its the Patriots. Who the heck knows. After I say all this, they’ll probably just take a tight end at 28.

Scott: Right now Harris comes up on the trusty BSMW Mock Masher as the 44th ranked player, and at the end of the day, what’s fifteen or twenty slots in the context of a guy’s career? It’s the kind of thing that makes the draft experts raise their eyebrow, (”he’s not supposed to go there - he’s supposed to go there!”) but in the grand scheme, its twenty freaking picks. Unless Jerry Rice is one of those picks, big deal.

Bruce: There seems to be a fair amount of buzz in recent days that everyone is trying to trade out of the bottom of the first round, meaning that it will be very difficult to do so. The rationale seems to be that there are only 15-18 real first round prospects in the draft, and that if you use a first rounder on anyone, you’re going to be over paying. I really don’t know enough about the prospects to know if this is true or not, but more than a few of the voices out there are spouting this theory.

Kevin: The concern that some GMs apparently have (a major concern, if Peter King is to be believed) is that the talent available in the first round this year will not justify the large contracts these players will receive by virtue of their draft positions. This may in fact be true, and Jonathan Kraft even spoke to this issue recently, commenting that the true value in the draft can be found in the latter half of the first round, where the Patriots have two picks. Of course, one difference between the first half and the second half of the first round is that, under the new CBA, only the top 16 picks can receive 6 year rookie contracts. Historically, the Patriots have shown a preference for 6 year rookie contracts, which allow the team to stretch the player’s signing bonus out longer, and reduce the yearly salary cap figure over the life of the contract. I think the Patriots may try to move up into the top half of the first round, where they can maybe get a player they really like who won’t be available at #24 (Leon Hall? Patrick Willis?), and then lock up the player for the next six years. Because of the apparent fear of some teams that this is a weak draft, this could be a very good year for the Patriots to try and move up.

Dan: I didn’t know this. What an important factor this becomes, and how ironic that in a draft that supposedly only has about 16 first round quality players, those 16 are the only guys that can be locked up for six years. So there are several different elements going back and forth in the determination of whether you want a high pick. On the plus side, you’re getting a legitimate first rounder you can sign for six years. On the minus side, the huge contracts mean more risk vs. reward the higher the pick. So realistically, the ideal pick in the first round is No. 16. You’re still getting one of the draft’s blue-chippers, you can lock him for six years, and the slotted contract at no. 16 means the risk/reward ratio is more favorable. Conversely, it stinks to have No. 17, as losing that sixth year is huge.

Are there any positions that the Pats must address in this draft?

Kevin: I really can’t remember a time since Belichick’s been here where they’ve been in a position where they’ve absolutely had to draft someone at a particular position. You could make a case last year that they needed to draft a placekicker, but realistically, they probably could have found an acceptable kicker outside of the draft. I think it’s pretty much the same thing this year–they can survive and probably do very well this season even if none of their draftees contribute in a meaningful way. Overall, however, they do need to get younger–particularly on defense–and they need to accomplish this primarily through the draft. Long term, I think it is virtually imperative that they get at least one, possibly two players out of this draft who will emerge as starters on the defense within the next two seasons. Inside linebackers, safeties and corners preferred.

The Patriots are reaching another important decision point with disgruntled CB Asante Samuel. If the Patriots have any thoughts of trading Samuel for help in the upcoming 2007 campaign, the most likely scenario would be to deal him for draft picks in this weekend’s draft. After this weekend, any trade scenario would likely involve draft picks in future drafts, which won’t help this year’s team. If you were Belichick/Pioli, would you consider trading Asante for draft picks now? And if so, what do you think he is worth?

Scott: I’m a little surprised that there hasn’t been any buzz on this in the last couple of weeks, given the way the Branch situation turned out last fall. It would be maddening to see the same thing happen again, so I guess what I’m saying is that I can’t believe the Boston sports media isn’t exploiting this situation. I understand that Samuel will quadruple his salary by signing the tender and the Pats are supposed to have all the leverage on this one. This guy went through the trouble of having “Get Paid” tattooed on himself. He figures, like so many before him, that there’s more money…out there. And we’re talking about nine game checks here. That’s what he loses. He’ll eat those nine game checks, even if they’re the biggest of his life, in a heartbeat. I can’t imagine his agent is throwing up red flags on the game checks. A good agent convinces him in pretty short order that he’ll make that money back. I don’t buy the theory that the price on Samuel goes down if he sits. Even if he does, he’s still got six-plus high profile games ahead of him, and you know as well as I that there’s always somebody willing to pay. By September, if this remains unresolved, it won’t be about anything but ‘respect’ for Asante Samuel, and you know what that means. So I’m not counting on this ‘leverage’ all that much. As for the Patriots, either they: 1) think he’ll play, or; 2) think they’ll be covered if he doesn’t. Damn them if they’re not sure about either one, after last year. I’d agree they have to consider a preemptive trade this weekend, but there seems to be question as to whether they even want the picks they have now. You’d have to think in this draft, a down one for impact corners, Samuel is worth a first round pick. Isn’t that what he’d fetch as a franchise player?

BSMW Draft Week Coverage
Sunday, April 22nd - Second Day Offensive Prospects
Monday, April 23rd - Second Day Defensive Prospects
Tuesday, April 24th - Ultimate Draft Profiles Database
Wednesday, April 25th - Final Rumor Inventory
Thursday, April 26th - Final Mock Board
Friday April 27th - Roundtable
Saturday April 28th & Sunday April 29th - Draft Blog

BSMW Draft Week Coverage
Sunday, April 22nd - Second Day Offensive Prospects
Monday, April 23rd - Second Day Defensive Prospects
Tuesday, April 24th - Ultimate Draft Profiles Database
Wednesday, April 25th - Final Rumor Inventory
Thursday, April 26th - Final Mock Board
Friday April 27th - Roundtable
Saturday April 28th & Sunday April 29th - Draft Blog

BSMW Game Day Mock Draft Masher - Final Version
By Scott Benson

You might remember that back in February we offered up the first version our own mock draft masher, which takes the results from the top mock drafts and mashes up a consensus draft rating for the prospects that are most likely to be selected on the first day of the draft. We followed that up with a second version in March, and this morning, we post our final board before this weekend’s festivities.

The board now features a total of ten drafts from the most accurate (according to thehuddlereport.com) mockers out there, including:

SW - Scott Wright, NFL Draft Countdown (#2 most accurate, 3 rounds, updated 4/23)
RR - Rob Rang, NFL Draft Scout (#7 most accurate, 3 rounds, updated 4/17)
MK - Mel Kiper, ESPN Insider (#5 most accurate, 3 rounds, updated 4/15)
TM - Todd McShay, ESPN Insider Scouts Inc.(3 rounds, updated 4/23)
JM - John Murphy, Yahoo Sports (2 rounds, updated 4/18)
DJ - DJ Boyer, Draft Stock (#8 most accurate, 2 rounds, updated 3/17)
RG - Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News (#1 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/23)
RM - Rob McCartney, Rob’s Scouting (#3 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/19)
NN - Nolan Narwocki, Pro Football Weekly (#4 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/2)
MM - Mike McCollom, football.com (#9 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/22)

Those mocks are then mashed like so:

MDP - Median Draft Position
#M - Number of mock sections
Lo - Low selection
Hi - High selection
MFDP - Most Frequent Draft Position
%% - % of total mocks in which MFDP occurs
TEAM - Team currently holding most frequent selection

Overall, the top of the board has stayed pretty steady since last month, with Jamarcus Russell as the #1 player, though Clemson DE Gaines Adams has risen to the #2 spot with recent news of Detroit’s interest in the pass rusher. Mock locks (relatively speaking) include Russell to the Raiders at 1, Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas to the Cardinals at 5, Nebraska DE Adam Carriker to the Niners at 11, Pats fans favorite Patrick Willis, the ILB out of Mississippi, to division rival Buffalo at pick 12, Miami TE Greg Olsen to the Panthers at 14, and RB Marshawn Lynch of California to the Packers at 16. Other probable top five players include WR Calvin Johnson and QB Brady Quinn.

For the Pats, the most commonly selected players are Penn State LB Paul Posluszny (a New England selection in four drafts) and Miami S Brandon Meriweather (also four). Other multiple selections include Miami LB Jon Beason (3 mocks), S Reggie Nelson of Florida (2 mocks) and Michael Griffin, the Texas S, who was also selected by two mocks. Overall, the mockers predicted the following first-day hauls for the Pats:

SW - Meriweather (24), Michigan ILB David Harris (28) and Baylor P Daniel Sepulveda (91).
RR - Posluszny (24), Meriweather (28) and Kent State CB Usama Young (91).
MK - Posluszny (24), Texas S Michael Griffin (28) and Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker (91)
TM - Nelson (24), Beason (28) and RB Tony Hunt of Penn State (91).
JM - Beason (24) and Syracuse DB Tanard Jackson (28).
DJ - Willis (24) and Texas CB Aaron Ross (28)
RG - LB Lawrence Timmons of Florida State (24) and Meriweather (28)
RM - Nelson (24) and Posluszny (28)
NN - Beason (24) and Meriweather (28)
MM - Posluszny (24) and Griffin (28)

Here’s the final board. Enjoy this weekend.

BSMW Draft Week Coverage
Sunday, April 22nd - Second Day Offensive Prospects
Monday, April 23rd - Second Day Defensive Prospects
Tuesday, April 24th - Ultimate Draft Profiles Database
Wednesday, April 25th - Final Rumor Inventory
Thursday, April 26th - Final Mock Board
Friday April 27th - Roundtable
Saturday April 28th & Sunday April 29th - Draft Blog

BSMW Game Day Rumor Inventory, Final Edition

By Scott A Benson

Last month we shared a list we’d been keeping of the draft prospects the Pats have been interviewing and working out since the college all-star games in January. Today we offer our second and final version for this year.

The players are listed below, along with the first source of the rumor and the type of contact (see key below). As always, we acknowledge that when it comes to the draft, you take a rumor for what its worth.

But on the whole, the Patriots looked at more offensive players than defensive ones, a reversal of an early trend. But a closer look reveals that defense may still dominate the first day (secondary, linebackers, and ends, in that order), while offensive skill positions could rule the second day. Just a guess.

Here’s a key for the rumor chart:

AS - Interview at a college all-star game (Senior Bowl, Blue/Gray, etc.)
CB - Interview at the Combine
PD - Scouts attended a Pro Day for the player
WK - Scouts conducted a private workout
VIS - Player visits team
MDP - BSMW Mock Board Median Draft Position (as of 4/15)
MFDP - Most Frequent Selection
TEAM - Team with selection