September 28, 2016

BSMW Game Day Mock Draft Masher – Final Version

BSMW Draft Week Coverage
Sunday, April 22nd – Second Day Offensive Prospects
Monday, April 23rd – Second Day Defensive Prospects
Tuesday, April 24th – Ultimate Draft Profiles Database
Wednesday, April 25th – Final Rumor Inventory
Thursday, April 26th – Final Mock Board
Friday April 27th – Roundtable
Saturday April 28th & Sunday April 29th – Draft Blog

BSMW Game Day Mock Draft Masher – Final Version
By Scott Benson

You might remember that back in February we offered up the first version our own mock draft masher, which takes the results from the top mock drafts and mashes up a consensus draft rating for the prospects that are most likely to be selected on the first day of the draft. We followed that up with a second version in March, and this morning, we post our final board before this weekend’s festivities.

The board now features a total of ten drafts from the most accurate (according to thehuddlereport.com) mockers out there, including:

SW – Scott Wright, NFL Draft Countdown (#2 most accurate, 3 rounds, updated 4/23)
RR – Rob Rang, NFL Draft Scout (#7 most accurate, 3 rounds, updated 4/17)
MK - Mel Kiper, ESPN Insider (#5 most accurate, 3 rounds, updated 4/15)
TM – Todd McShay, ESPN Insider Scouts Inc.(3 rounds, updated 4/23)
JM – John Murphy, Yahoo Sports (2 rounds, updated 4/18)
DJ – DJ Boyer, Draft Stock (#8 most accurate, 2 rounds, updated 3/17)
RG – Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News (#1 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/23)
RM – Rob McCartney, Rob’s Scouting (#3 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/19)
NN – Nolan Narwocki, Pro Football Weekly (#4 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/2)
MM – Mike McCollom, football.com (#9 most accurate, 1 round, updated 4/22)

Those mocks are then mashed like so:

MDP – Median Draft Position
#M – Number of mock sections
Lo – Low selection
Hi - High selection
MFDP – Most Frequent Draft Position
%% – % of total mocks in which MFDP occurs
TEAM – Team currently holding most frequent selection

Overall, the top of the board has stayed pretty steady since last month, with Jamarcus Russell as the #1 player, though Clemson DE Gaines Adams has risen to the #2 spot with recent news of Detroit’s interest in the pass rusher. Mock locks (relatively speaking) include Russell to the Raiders at 1, Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas to the Cardinals at 5, Nebraska DE Adam Carriker to the Niners at 11, Pats fans favorite Patrick Willis, the ILB out of Mississippi, to division rival Buffalo at pick 12, Miami TE Greg Olsen to the Panthers at 14, and RB Marshawn Lynch of California to the Packers at 16. Other probable top five players include WR Calvin Johnson and QB Brady Quinn.

For the Pats, the most commonly selected players are Penn State LB Paul Posluszny (a New England selection in four drafts) and Miami S Brandon Meriweather (also four). Other multiple selections include Miami LB Jon Beason (3 mocks), S Reggie Nelson of Florida (2 mocks) and Michael Griffin, the Texas S, who was also selected by two mocks. Overall, the mockers predicted the following first-day hauls for the Pats:

SW – Meriweather (24), Michigan ILB David Harris (28) and Baylor P Daniel Sepulveda (91).
RR - Posluszny (24), Meriweather (28) and Kent State CB Usama Young (91).
MK – Posluszny (24), Texas S Michael Griffin (28) and Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker (91)
TM - Nelson (24), Beason (28) and RB Tony Hunt of Penn State (91).
JM – Beason (24) and Syracuse DB Tanard Jackson (28).
DJ – Willis (24) and Texas CB Aaron Ross (28)
RG – LB Lawrence Timmons of Florida State (24) and Meriweather (28)
RM – Nelson (24) and Posluszny (28)
NN – Beason (24) and Meriweather (28)
MM – Posluszny (24) and Griffin (28)

Here’s the final board. Enjoy this weekend.

mock_mash_final.jpg

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