Game Day Blog - The Sunday (Divisional Round) Papers

sunday_links.jpgby Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

It’s five o’clock in the morning, there’s eleven and a half hours before game time, we’ve got a full tank of gas, a half a pack of cigarettes, it’s dark, and we’re wearing sunglasses.

Hit it.

Pretty interesting game yesterday. Nice ballgame from MacNair. We’re still laughing about Dan Dierdorf’s “He Built This City (On Throwing Low)” speech. Yeah, Steve McNair has really changed things in Baltimore, by the looks. But in what dimension does Peyton Manning throw up a quarterback rating of FORTY and get a breakthrough playoff win anyway? Of course, you’re going to get sick from all the Adam Vinatieri love that’s coming your way soon. Anyway, that was a fun game, I thought, and now, the stakes for today are set.

Let’s open the papers and see what’s up.

Over at the Globe, they’re throwing the kitchen sink at today’s game. We’ve got the usual crew plus a wave of reinforcements, and, of course, a gaggle of preening columnists. It feels like that, anyway, when Bob Ryan and Dan Shaughnessy choose sides for a contrived ‘Tastes Great, Less Filling’ debate. Ryan gets the bullish side, arguing for the been-there-done-that Pats, and I’m assuming Shank got the ‘Super Chargers!’ side, which probably feels more like a shot at the Pats than it does a testimonial for San Diego. I don’t know, I didn’t read it. And I cannot link what I did not read.

Jackie MacMullen gets the ‘can’t miss’ assignment; a feature on how freaking great Tom Brady is. Nice work again by Jackie, the best feature writer out there. And yes, I did breathe a sigh of relief when I got to the end and Brady hadn’t complained about his contract.

The beat guys set the stage with their morning stories, and Christopher L. Gaspar (I’m telling you, I’m about a week away from going with ‘Chris’) focuses on red zone play, and particularly the match up of the Chargers offense and Patriots defense, two of the best red zone units in the league. Gaspar drops a note in here that I didn’t know, though - the Chargers are 29th in red zone defense. Mike Reiss is along with more strength-on-strength matchups, and says in his Notebook that the Patriots will be trying to put 11 men on LaDainian Tomlinson everytime he carries the ball.

Jim McBride weighs in with his weekly scouting report, and Jim doesn’t feel good about the Pats this week. McBride also adds a notebook for the other playoff games, with some best wishes from the triumphant Colts, hoping to be home for the AFC Championship Game next week.

Even Michael Felger would like the Globe’s depth today - veterans John Powers (on the always-popular Corey Dillon), Frank Dell’Apa (fast starter Tully Banta-Cain) and Mark Blaudschun (ace kicker Nate Kaeding) all come off the sidebar bench to great effect.

Ron Borges closes with the weekly Football Notes, where he ponders the Hall of Fame candidacy of Patriots great Andre Tippett, and the possible future of Marty Schottenheimer. I like how often Tippett’s referenced the old Patriots since the announcement; it was awful good to see the name of old favorite Johnny Rembert the other day.

At the Herald, Michael Felger says in his Patriots Beat that its not about Tomlinson or Gates or Rivers; it’s about the Patriots offense. Okay, that’s not an unreasonable position, but let’s just say I’m not surprised to see Felger put the focus on the offense again. This time, though, he tosses a curveball; it’s not the wide receivers that have Mike concerned - now it’s the tackles. Then what was the four months of bitching about the receivers for, if the season was going to come down to the two offensive tackles? They should have traded Branch for Walter Jones or something.

Felger does look at the defense for a minute in his Game With a Game and decides that the Patriots have to use team coverage to combat the explosive Antonio Gates. He also worries about the placekicking, particularly about their balls being slippery. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. I’ve give you a few minutes to compose yourself.

Mike finishes up by checking inside the huddle for an old rant by Pete Carroll, who still wishes he had gotten the control Bill Belichick has. Personally, I view Carroll to be among the least culpable parties for the Patriots late 90’s collapse, but not if he keeps talking like this.

Albert Breer and John Tomase have both been strong in recent weeks, and it would have been nice to expand their roles today. Breer gets one shot, and he connects with a vote of confidence in Bill Belichick’s well-prepared Patriots. Tomase disabuses Pats fans who have been fond of citing Marshall Faulk/Tomlinson parallels when discussing this weekend’s game plan. Speaking of game plans, John also tells us what to look for.

Karen Guregian brings us back to draft day 2001 in her look at the great LT. Nick Canepa from the San Diego Union Tribune crows about the Chargers, and why the hell shouldn’t he? I thought the line about the Patriots having more experience than the Gabor Sisters was pretty goddam funny, if you were born in the Fifties. Later, there’s a Churchill reference.

At the ProJo, Shalise Manza Young takes a look back at how the valuable Artrell Hawkins came to the Patriots. Joe McDonald offers up his weekly game analysis, and sees things as pretty even. Jim Donaldson debunks what he claims is a Martyball myth.

If your thirst for Pats-Chargers remains unquenched, you know what to do. Do the Mash-Up! Naturally, you can follow the day’s events at Reiss’s Pieces, and as I mentioned, Breer has been crushing it on his blog the Point After. Both great resources for Pats fans all year, but especially at times like this.

Well, kids, here we go. Basically, after all this, after everything that has been done and said, the Patriots are today playing for the right to go to Indianapolis and the AFC Championship Game. Manning and Dungy and Polian and, yes, Adam’s Money. You cannot make this shit up. But first, the Patriots must close the deal with the star-studded team that was better than anyone in the dominant AFC over sixteen weeks. The storybook ending is anything but guaranteed. Either way, I’ll be back after the game.

GDRV Roundtable — Divisional Round Edition

by Scott Benson, Greg Doyle, Tim Jordan and Bruce Allen
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

Well, for all their trials and tribulations over the last year, where do we find the New England Patriots but in the same place we left them last January. The divisional round of the AFC playoffs.

Wait, there actually is a difference between this year and last. You tell me how big it is. Last year, they faced the tournament’s second seed when they reached the second round. This year, in San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium, they’ll play the first seed.

Otherwise, without the hall of fame kicker, the two star receivers, and the sage playmaker, and with all their alleged blemishes, the 2006 Patriots have basically ended up right back where they started.

No comment. Just an observation.

For more observations, here’s the Row of Chairs themselves.

Last Sunday was one for the books. Any lingering thoughts?

Greg: I was impressed how Richard Seymour picked up his game. Its probably been Seymour’s least dominant season this year since he got to the NFL. Much of that can probably be attributed to lingering injuries. But when the playoffs came, he was ready and dominated last week. They’ll need that again this week.

Tim: A complete team victory with many contributors. It was just as the team preaches. A thing of beauty in that regard and, despite my aversion to “storylines”, Mangini’s presence playing against a division rival made this game much more memorable to me than last year’s Jaguars game. It is truly uncanny the way this team seems to play at another level at this time of year and watching them do it against a team built in their own image was very satisfying. Some players that made some big plays that haven’t received much attention this week for it: Troy Brown (2 catches, both on 3rd and long during drives that resulted in touchdowns), Ben Watson (a big first down of his own where the defender went low, but he still held the ball, as well as a huge pass interference on Hank Poteat at the goal line setting up the Graham TD), and Heath Evans (blocked two Jets interior lineman on Dillon’s first 11 yard TD run).

Bruce: I was just glad to move on from that matchup. It was uncomfortable watching some of the schemes and formations (or lack of formations) that the Patriots have utilized for years used against them. The AFC East is going to be a tougher place going forward. All that being said, there was no point during that game where I was very concerned that the Patriots would lose. Even when they briefly fell behind, I always thought they were going to come back just fine. It felt like they had control of the game.

Scott: Just that I’m getting carried away with the last eleven-plus minutes of that game. It was a seven point game at that point, with the Jets just having matched a field goal. That might not seem like a close game to you; to me, one fumble or tipped ball by the offense and it’s close enough. But the Patriots just shoved the ball down the Jets’ throats while ripping off huge chunks of clock time. They dominated. Then, on the Jets final gasp, they immediately intercept a pass and return it for another score. Knockout punch. They KILLED them, just like our posting pal Ironhead said they would. They made a close game look like a blowout, and in no way cheaply. I’ve got a wicked case of ‘the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl’ as a result.

What was your reaction to Camera-Gate?

Tim: I wish you hadn’t asked. Like everyone else, I didn’t like it when it happened (it looked worse live than on Youtube, didn’t it?) and was happy when Belichick both personally and publicly apologized to Jim Davis. The rest is contrived media sound and fury. While we are on the handshake topic though, anyone with access to the OnDemand Patriots Video News on Comcast should check out their entry on the day after the Jets game. They show Mangini and Belichick’s post game handshake from the second regular season game and its pretty telling. Mangini is insufferable. This will be a fun and challenging division rival for years to come.

Bruce: Not smart by Belichick and he admitted as much and apologized to Jim Davis for it. That should be the end of it, but with the media the way it is, there’s been plenty of hand wringing and denunciations of Belichick in the press. It’s tiresome, really.

Scott: I watched it develop as, I admit, I was hanging in there to see what would happen between Belichick and Mangini. It’s the Inside Track in me. Anyway, I saw him push his way through there and I honestly didn’t think anything of it. I wrote a whole thing about the game and didn’t mention it at all - not for any reason other than it didn’t register with me as being something significant. The awkward hug, I noticed. Anyway, the coach was appropriately contrite and the photographer was gracious in accepting the apology. And everybody else got to tsk tsk to their heart’s content, secure in the knowledge their brief moments as an asshole will never, ever be televised, and thus, shall forever remain plausibly deniable.

Greg: That it was just too bad and tragic. I feel really bad. Because if Belichick was going to slug a media-type, its just awful and terrible it wasn’t one of the scribes like Buckley or Felger or Tomase or one of the other giant ass hats that cover this team.

Let’s close the books on last week and get started on this Sunday’s highly anticipated game with San Diego. Who wins the match-ups? We’ll start with the Chargers offense vs. the Patriots defense.

Bruce: In concept it’s very easy. LaDainian Tomlinson. Antonio Gates. The Patriots defense has to be able to slow those two down. Can they? I think they’ll do a decent job at this on Sunday, but the game really hinges on not giving up too many big plays. Those two are going to make some plays, but if the Patriots can keep them out of the end zone for the most part, they’ll be in this game.

Scott: The Patriots finished top ten across the major categories of run defense, particularly in fewest rushing attempts per game (fourth, with a 24.2 average), fewest yards allowed (fifth, with 94.2 per game), and yards per carry (seventh, with 3.9) But Tomlinson is one of those players who rises above all that. He’s probably the best player in the league at this point, and he can do everything. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he was to produce 250 total yards between running and receiving (275 if he passes) and win the game by himself. This isn’t like going into Pittsburgh in 01 and trying to stop Jerome Bettis. As a result, I can’t give the Patriots anything even close to the edge here. They have to stone a guy that very few stone. No offense to Phillip Rivers, but if the game for some reason comes down to him, against the players and coaches of the Patriots defense, I’ll take New England 9.5 times out of 10. That, to me, sounds like the Patriots have to do more than slow down Tomlinson - they need to stop him. San Diego will have no reason to put it in Rivers’ hands otherwise.

Greg: A good matchup. San Diego has some very dangerous weapons. Well, actually, they have two very dangerous weapons LaDanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. If the Patriots can find a way to take those away to at least some degree, it’ll force San Diego to do things they don’t want to do. One way to take away Tomlinson is to build a large lead. I expect the Patriots to be very aggressive on offense themselves to try to do this. If they can do this and force San Diego into mostly a passing game in the second half, they can take away Gates and its ballgame.

Tim: LT – Gates. That’s the game. LT – Gates, and I wonder if it can be stopped. Regarding Tomlinson, I’ve heard the Faulk in 01 comparison, but the 01 Rams were a much different offense than this 06 Charger team. Not to mention the fact that LT had 276 more yards from scrimmage (2,147 vs. 2,423) this season than Faulk did in that record setting year in 01. Faulk was playing with the league MVP under center and that offense was one of the greatest in the annals of the NFL. Of course, Belichick had seen that team in week 7 that year too which helped immeasurably in development of the game plan for the Super Bowl. It’s a completely different situation. Nobody seems to mention Lorenzo Neal, probably the best blocking fullback in the NFL, when talking about LT’s MVP season. In fact, that entire offensive line (over 2,300 rushing yards this year) is the best the Patriots will face this year. Add to that the fact that the offense has given up the least amount of turnovers in the league and you’ve got the match-up that concerns me the most as a Patriots fan. If the Patriots defense plays this game like they’ve played most others this year then we should look for a ton of yards between the 20 yard lines and hope for more exemplary red zone play. If not, this is where the Patriots will lose this game.

Okay, how about the Patriots offense vs. the San Diego defense?

Scott: It’s all about sack totals, it seems to me. I keep hearing about this great defense with Jamal Williams and Merriman and Phillips, and they have had a very good year, but at least statistically, they don’t dress out as being a whole lot different than some of the defenses the Patriots have recently played. The one difference being the enormous sack total. Tom Brady’s playing pretty well, just when it counts the most, and I’m going to bet that has the answer for that more often than not. We’ve been talking - as we should - about how the Patriots will contend with an other-wordly force like Tomlinson; I suggest the San Diego defense has a similar problem themselves, with the best big-money player of this decade. Pats get the clear edge here for me.

Greg: The Patriots should be able to move the ball. Tom Brady has been on, the receivers have improved and they run the ball well. I am worried about the San Diego pass rush. They’ll have to use a combination of ways to slow that down…..designed roll outs, quick passes, screen, leaving tight ends and backs in to help and mix those different strategies up. It could keep San Diego off balance in how to attack and help control their pass rush. But the Patriots should be able to score at a decent clip.

Tim: This one looks pretty even on paper (coincidentally, the SD offense and NE defense are both 7th in the NFL), but I think it favors the Patriots. The Chargers are an explosive defensive team with playmakers at seemingly every position, but they have been in their share of shoot outs this year. The Patriots like to talk about their emphasis on situational football and you can see it on display with every offensive possession. Each drive in the Jets game (Kevin Faulk’s touchdown catch being my personal favorite) last week was a great example of how they attack a defense’s weaknesses and adjust to what they are seeing. The key again will be how the team performs in the red zone, but, at the same time, you wonder if the game plan will call for the offense to try and control the clock and keep San Diego’s offense off the field. It will be very interesting to see how they approach it.

Bruce: If the Patriots can keep Tom Brady upright, they’re going to be fine, I think. Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk might be the keys this week, as the Patriots might be able to use some draws and screens to combat the blitz that is certain to come. The Chargers don’t change much from week to week, so we know what we’re going to see. I think in terms of passing, the plan might be similar to the one used in the Jets game. Passing outside, and trying the deep one every so often, hoping to hit one this week.

How do the special teams stack up?

Greg: San Diego is good, but the Patriots are certainly capable of busting a return themselves with Maroney, Hobbs or Faulk. I’ll give a slight edge to San Diego, but if its any, its slight.

Tim: I’d be pretending if I tried to dissect the intricacies of the Chargers special teams units, but the Patriots special teams are playing better than they have all season in the last 5 games. It’s a testimony to Brad Seely with all the losses that that unit has had to deal with. Hobbs and Maroney both had very good days against the Jets, who are a very good special teams unit in their own right. We’ve seen it before, this game could easily come down to a few special teams plays depending on how well each defense plays.

Bruce: I haven’t seen the San Diego special teams enough to really comment, but the Patriots have shown improvement in recent weeks. They’ve done a pretty good job on returns, both ways, and the kicking game has been promising. Gostkowski did just fine in his first postseason action, even making a 40 yarder where the kick was pressured heavily. One of his kickoffs went through the end zone.

Scott: I think you have to go with the Chargers here, though the Patriots do outdo them in the return department. Which reminds me, there was Kevin Faulk and Troy Brown back there on punts last week - and not Chad Jackson - just as I suspected they would be. It was the right thing to do, of course, but I still want to see Jackson. But San Diego obviously kicks the ball great, and covers kicks just as well.

Lastly, how about the coaching match-up?

Tim: Schottenheimer has to be a pretty bright guy and a talented football mind. He’s in the top 5 in wins in NFL history and that doesn’t happen if you don’t know how to coach. He’s had some glaring playoff losses, most recently in 04, which raise some questions about his ability to lead when the lights are the brightest. However, the latter part of this season he’s given more control on the offensive side of the ball to his coordinator, Cam Cameron, and the team has responded well. Particularly Phillip Rivers, who leads the NFL in 4th quarter QB rating during that stretch. It makes one wonder how they’ll play this one. Will they try and alter their philosophy that made them the best offensive team in the NFL this year or will they keep doing what they have and dare the Patriots to beat them on the field? It normally wouldn’t even be a question, but with Marty’s 5-12 playoff record it seems like something that they may consider. It makes me wonder if a component to Belichick’s post season success is the excellence of the teams he’s faced. In other words, the offenses and defenses were so good that they were predictable. Anyway, I am sure everyone with rooting interest in NE feels very comfortable heading into Sunday. The Patriots are the smarter and more adaptable team thanks to their superior coaching match-up.

Bruce: This seems like a layup. We know the postseason stats for Belichick and Schottenheimer. While I don’t put a lot of stock into those numbers for THIS game, they do tell a story. Of course, Schottenheimer is also 7-1 lifetime against the Patriots. It seems that the Chargers just line up and play. They don’t change a whole lot from week to week. If they throw a change-up this week and mix things up, it will be quite a surprise and might mess them up just as much as it would shock the Patriots.

Scott: The answer to this one is in the record books, and it’s not close. Marty Schottenheimer sure is a good one for the NFL Films-ready inspirational pre-game speech, and he’s certainly been a successful head coach in the NFL for a long time. I mean, twelve post-season appearances. I’ve got to wonder, though, if he’s much for discipline and detail. The five player arrests since April speak for themselves. And we’re now learning that he’s got at least a few guys - on a young team that hasn’t done anything yet - that think of the playoffs as just a couple of regular season games the league tacked on to keep the Chargers busy until the Super Bowl. This all plays into my new favorite theory that the Chargers are a west coast version of the 01-04 Steelers, and may offer a hint - at least in part - as to why Schottenheimer’s teams have failed to win a playoff game eight times out of his twelve playoff appearances.

Greg: Obviously you have to give this one to Belichick. I am wary of assuming Marty Schottenheimer will never get hot in the playoffs. You heard a lot of similar things about Bill Cowher last year and there he was, raising the trophy at the end. Schottenheimer has won over 200 NFL games, so obviously isn’t the bumbling moron sometimes portrayed. He isn’t Belichick either. But one of these days he may just be the one raising the trophy in the face of all the knocks against him. Just hopefully not this year.

Let’s get to it then - let’s have the victor, and a final score.

Bruce: Dang. It’s late Thursday night, close to submission time for this piece and I still can’t get a handle on this game. Every time I think about how the Patriots have responded to these types of challenges in the past I remember that this isn’t the same team that beat up the Steelers in January of ‘05 or the Colts in that year and the year before. This team has the potential to deliver that type of performance…I think…but when I think of the running of LaDainian Tomlinson, the pass rush of the Chargers defense and the threat of Antonio Gates catching the ball I’m given pause. I think the Patriots are going to play well and have nothing to be ashamed of, however I think Tomlinson is going to break one or two during the course of the game and that might be the difference. I fear that it might. I’m going with the Chargers, 30-20, but hope against hope that I am incredibly wrong.

Scott: This train is bound for glory. Patriots 27, Chargers 20.

Greg: Patriots 30-20.

Tim: 34-31, Good guys. It’s impossible to watch this team for any length of time and pick against them in this game.

What are your thoughts about the other AFC divisional playoff - the Colts and the Ravens in Baltimore?

Scott: I don’t know, seems kind of predictable to me. Colts on the road, hard hitting, aggressive defense……..maybe Peyton will surprise us this time. He didn’t last Sunday, and he’s really up against it this week. I’d bet that Brian Billick will have a more competitive game plan than Herman Edwards did, and the Colts defense will quickly get over the illusion that they’re somehow ‘coming together at the right time’ or something - they suck. I’d love to pick the upset here (come on - next Sunday in Indianapolis? Sweet!) but I think I’ll stick with the Ravens.

Greg: The Ravens are at home and a tougher team than the softy Colts, who’ll fold on the road with their pathetic defense imploding without the comfort of their home crowd behind them. Lets go Ravens 27-13. Manning should be good for at least another 3 picks.

Tim: I am inclined to go with the Ravens here, for two reasons: Dungy looks like the guy at the health club that enjoys naked time in the locker room more than anyone else and the fact that his voice always reminds me of the old guy with the crush on Chris Griffin in Family Guy. Brian Billick once shared the stage with Charles Nelson Reilly and Gene Rayburn, but please believe him when he tells you he doesn’t like attention. He’s also got a scary group of players on the defensive side of the ball. I think, pound for pound, the best group in the league. Indy continues their slow burn to mediocrity. Thanks, Bill Polian!

Bruce: I just don’t see how Indy can pull this one out. They did show me something last week against Larry Johnson and the Chiefs, but I think the Ravens are just too much for the Colts this week. The game is outdoors, out of their element, and until the Colts can beat someone other than the Broncos and Chiefs in the postseason, I can’t pick them.

Let’s close out with another round of Mediot…..of the Week!

Greg: Michael Felger, who once was an astute observer of the Patriots, being unable to find much to talk about except pathetic Belichick to the Giants rumors is my winner. Michael, what happened to you? Seriously? Take a look in the mirror. Its not that sports is the most important thing in the world, but really, you’re making an ass of yourself. Have some self-respect and cover the sports intelligently and live up to your promise to not be about “Manny pissing in the walll…..”

Tim: This is the best time of year as a Patriots fan. It’s when some of our favorite memories have been made while our collective hearts race and emotions soar. We try to balance the excitement of the last win with the anticipation of the next challenge, knowing that the next game could be the last of the season. We are captive and we are captivated. It is a unique escape provided by the drama and pageantry that is professional football. Here in New England, we have been particularly blessed, rewarded for our fervor with a team that plays with character, intelligence, pride, and, most of all, excellence. Win or lose this Sunday, it does not, it WILL not, get any better than this as Patriots fans. We are in the rare position to reasonably assume that the New England Patriots are perennial contenders in a league designed to prevent just that. It’s important that we remind ourselves of this to, if for no other reason, properly appreciate it. And no one is going to do this for us, especially the media covering this team.

Instead, we are going to get a full page spread on our sports page the day of the game reminding us that our best corner is likely leaving after this season with three week old quotes that aren’t noted as such. We are going to get guys who have seen their careers advance partially due to the success and exposure afforded to them by this team tell us how delusional we are not to recognize how little chance they have of winning against the latest NFL juggernaut. We are going to get tedious and transparent arguments as these same folks race to be the first guy to predict the team’s demise and make up statistics to support their flawed analysis without any repercussions. Most of all, we are going to get annoyed, frustrated, and agitated. Why? Because they aren’t following this team for the same reasons. They want you to notice them. They want you to remember their name. They want a reaction. They want to take our attention and use it to augment their W-2’s, or their profile, or their self-esteem. In some cases, all three.

This week I implore you not to give it to them. Let’s save ourselves the aggravation and keep our attention where it belongs; on the team.

Bruce: Aside from the usual suspects we had a new contestant this week as Globe metro columnist Brian McGrory decided to weigh in on cameragate. I must’ve missed McGrory’s similar column of outrage when colleague Ron Borges knocked down a fellow writer at a boxing match.

Scott: I thought Albert Breer had a terrific week with the Herald’s Point After blog. Incredible depth in really every post. And no snarky one-liners; his enthusiasm for the game and for the story showed through, and he delivered items of interest every time. Breer rose to the occasion this week. There’s nothing mediotic about that.

Second Look: New York Jets at Patriots

Sunday’s impressive 37-16 win in the opening round of the NFL playoffs proved the Patriots are once again ready to take on all challengers when the postseason rolls around. Despite the final score, it was a tight, well-played, competitive game most of the way through. But the Patriots were clearly better and I never had a sense they’d lose. It was one of the better and sharper games they have played all year. And they’ll need to continue that trend as the competition is only going to get better. Lets take a look at each unit.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady has clearly played better the second half of the year, overall, than he did the first half. Chemistry with the receivers is probably one reason. Sunday, he was very good. He killed the Jets on critical third down after third down and at times made it look easy the precision he ran the offense with. He had a couple bad plays, a pass or two that could have been picked and a sack where he held the ball too long. But overall, he is approaching if not at his previous year’s level and that is good news for the Patriots.

RUNNING BACK: An outstanding day. Corey Dillon was very effective running the ball, though he did have one fumble. Laurence Maroney too ran hard, though he was unable to really shake loose on the Jets. Kevin Faulk contributed and caught a touchdown pass. The blocking was great, especially from fullback Heath Evans.

WIDE RECEIVER: A good day. Jabar Gaffney appears comfortable and made some good catches. His snare on the second Patriots first down of the game was actually a better catch than it appears on television. Live, you could see Brady was a bit inaccurate on it and Gaffney made a nice in flight adjustment to grab it and get the first down. He was good all day and had eight catches, though he did drop one potential touchdown. Troy Brown had one of his better games of the year, catching a couple big third downs and getting down field a bit. Reche Caldwell was his usual solid self and had five catches.

TIGHT ENDS: Good day here. Ben Watson had a drop, but blocked well. Daniel Graham was back to his old self blocking and was excellent. He caught a touchdown pass nicely at the end of the half as well in traffic.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Great day here. Matt Light held up well against the pass and the guards did an excellent job picking up the inside blitzes the Jets tried. They also got out well in space a number of time, especially Stephen Neal. Nick Kaczur at right tackle may have had his best game of the year.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Very good day here, though I don’t think it was as spectacular as I heard others say. That being said, Richard Seymour had his most disruptive and best day of the year. Nice to see him step up his game for the playoffs. He was all over the field including hustling numerous times to make plays on receivers way down field. Vince Wilfork was back from injury and was solid, but not spectacular and the Jets did gash him up the middle a couple times. He did have the heads up play of the year picking up a Jets lateral and running with it in the third quarter. That changed the game. Ty Warren was quiet for the first time in some time.

LINEBACKERS: A monster game here from Tully Banta-Cain, who seems to be getting better and better the more he plays. The rest of the crew was pretty solid. Mike Vrabel was active and had a nice game plugging the middle and dropping into coverage.

SECONDARY: What more can be said about Asante Samuel? The guy has just made plays all year. Before his fourth quarter interception return for a TD, he was solid all day and batted down a couple of big passes. Ray Mickens and Ellis Hobbs did a nice job at the corner spots. At safety, Artrell Hawkins let himself get out of position and took a bad angle on the Jets long touchdown pass and run. That was a major mistake. He had a bit of an off game, as did James Sanders, though neither was terrible. They’ll need to play better from here on out, however.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Nice game from Stephen Goskowski connecting on all three field goal attempts. His kickoffs were mostly long and high as well. The punting was decent and coverage good. Not a bad day here.

As well as the Patriots played, they’ll have to play even better in the next round against a better San Diego team. It won’t be easy at all. But if they can slow down Tomlinson some (I don’t think they need to stop him completely, just hold him down under 120) and take away Antonio Gates, throwing to receivers is not what San Diego really likes to do. On offense, the Patriots have a challenge against the tough San Diego pass rush. They’ll need to find a way to combat that similar to how they combated the tough Carolina pass rush in the Super Bowl a few years back. Do that and they may just advance to the AFC Championship Game.

It Is Time For Stormy Weather

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

It Is Time For Stormy Weather

Oh, if only the Patriots were hosting the Chargers this weekend instead of heading to sunny San Diego. 62° is the high for Sunday in San Diego; Foxboro, a measly … 60°? El Nino aside, Foxboro’s expecting rain on Sunday; it’ll be bright and clear in San Diego.

I say “…if only…” because of the stories that would inevitably pop up if the Chargers were, in fact, traveling to a blustery Foxboro as opposed to the comfort out West. You know, the ones that would insinuate that Philip Rivers’ fingers would freeze off and that he’d be left crying in a ball on the sideline, quality control assistants cuddling with him, since he’d never been exposed to cold weather before? They always struck me as kinda ridiculous. It’s football! Sure, I don’t like playing football in the extreme cold very much, but I’m not a professional! They can figure it out, right!

What was given as proof of these statements, in the times where they were one, were stats about how the Buccaneers had never won a playoff game above 32°, or that the Packers had never lost one below it, or similar numbers. The figures were obviously a small enough sample and subject to enough bias that they were easily questionable.

So then, when I looked at the Patriots trip to San Diego, I wondered if the opposite was true; if warm-weather teams actually suffered when heading to colder ground, would cold-weather teams suffer when warmed up? Or, alternately, would they play better?

I took every playoff game from 1985 through 2005, outside of Super Bowls, and compiled the results of all 216 games. From there, I added the average January dry bulb and wet bulb temperatures for each city, home and away. In the case that a team played in a dome, I instead replaced the dry bulb and wet bulb temperatures with a dome constant that we’ve found at Football Outsiders to be the most accurate. This was done because teams who play in a dome, after all, would not be used to playing in the cold weather even if their city was cold outside of the dome (see: Peyton Manning).

I then separated the games into three groups. Cold games involved a road team traveling to play in a city where the average wet bulb temperature in January was 25 degrees colder than that of its home. Warm games were the opposite; they involved a road team traveling to play in a city where the average January temperature was 25 degrees warmer than that of its home — for example, the Patriots’ trip to San Diego. All other playoff games were adjudged to be Neutral weather games.

What I found? For one, that riding the winds to success has shown some validity for the playoffs:

weather_wins.jpg

The data clearly suggests that cold-weather teams hosting its warm-weathered brethren perform better than the average.

While the sample is too small to draw a strong conclusion, the data also suggests that the opposite isn’t true: in fact, warm-weather teams seem to be at a disadvantage when facing cold-weather teams!

There is always the possibility that what’s being produced in the data isn’t necessarily because of the separations being made — instead, the results above could have been produced by the cold-weather teams simply being more successful than warm-weather teams. Is that the case?

To check that, I’ll rely on each team’s Pythagorean Winning Percentage. (For more information, please click here.) The median dry bulb temperature for each of the 216 teams was 43°. I used that as the point of delineation in separating the teams into Warmer and Colder buckets. Their performance?

pythag_wins.jpg

As you can see, the warmer teams performed equally as well as the colder teams did, which would eliminate some fears about selection bias in producing the playoff performance results up above.

Is the sample large enough to be able to make strong statements about the weather and how it affects playoff performance? Probably not in the case of cold weather teams visiting warm areas, although it seems pretty apparent that the home teams in those matchups don’t enjoy any advantage by staying warm. When it comes to warm weather teams heading North and East, though, the last twenty years show that they’re most likely to be packing up their lockers Tuesday morning.

Game Day Rear View - Bully Pats Own Final Quarter, Send Jets Packing, 37-16

gdrv_sm.jpgby Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

The New England Patriots earned a berth in next week’s divisional round of the AFC playoffs - just two games away from Super Bowl 41 - with a decisive 37-16 win over the New York Jets in today’s AFC Wild Card game in Foxboro.

New York hung with New England through three quarters, and matched their no-huddle, quick snap strategizing step-for-step, but the bully Patriots made clear the difference between them and their New York rivals by completely owning the fourth quarter of an elimination football game.

Leading by just a touchdown with eleven minutes to play, the Patriots ground nearly six and a half minutes off the clock behind Tom Brady before extending their lead to fourteen on a Brady to Kevin Faulk 7y swing pass away from broken coverage. Less than thirty seconds later, the Patriots had a blowout when Asante Samuel doubled back in coverage to grab a Chad Pennington pass and race 36 yards for the close-out score. The Patriots added two sacks and a Vinny Testaverde cameo before Bill Belichick (now 12-2 lifetime in the playoffs) warmed the hearts and wet the eyes of wizened sportswriters everywhere by embracing Eric Mangini at midfield.

Though his numbers were modest (just 212 yards in 34 attempts), Brady was all-american material again. The Patriots clearly had the answer for the Jets blitzers this time with the no huddle quick pace, and Brady was masterful in the middle of it, taking short drop, short route throws to the perimeter to avoid sacks, maintain possession, and most importantly, move the chains and the scoreboard against one of the league’s stingiest scoring defenses. With the help of the on-a-roll running game, New England twice had six-minute touchdown drives (one that ate the final seven minutes of the first half; the second the game definer to seize control in the fourth) that dictated the outcome of the game as much as anything did. They piled up 26 first downs and punted just twice.

Pennington and the New York offense moved the ball on the Patriots defense (the Pats outgained NY by a slim 358-347 margin) but as usual, the story was the Patriots red zone defense. Three times the Jets drove inside the Pats 20 and came away with no touchdown, settling each time for a Mike Nugent field goal. Their only touchdown came on yet another freak big play involving Jerricho Cotchery (who caught a 15 yard throw and outran an overmatched Patriots coverage for a 77 yard score), which gave them a relatively brief second quarter lead.

But like they were with the blitz pick ups, the Patriots remained a step ahead of the Jets all day, thanks in part to three field goals by their own draftee kicker, Stephen Gostkowski. The Ghost hit two big third quarter kicks (one a 40 yarder) that kept the Jets at least seven points behind until Brady and Samuel could put them away. In a related story, Michael Felger was last heard shrieking about Adam Vinatieri on Bob Lobel’s program this morning.

Jabar Gaffney was the surprise stand out for the Patriots, leading all receivers with 8 catches and 104 yards. Gaffney took the lead from the opening drive (a humdinger three-minute, 60 yard touchdown march that Corey Dillon finished with an 11 yard run), taking his routes to a 8×8 open area about seven yards up right sideline. Brady kept hitting him with no protest from the Jets (including an ailing Andre Dyson, who was forced from the game immediately), and before you knew it, the Patriots were in the end zone with a HUGE momentum-establishing opening drive.

The Jets overcame a slow start to first dig in, then take the lead. Mike Vrabel couldn’t cover Cotchery on a route up the right hash (he later had troubles with Chris Baker too), and after Pennington looped in a throw, Artrell Hawkins couldn’t reign Cotchery in. Much like he had at the Meadowlands in September, the big galoot outraced New England to its own end zone, and suddenly, the upstart Jets were in front to start the second period. I am buoyed by the thought that Cotchery will not be visiting the Patriots defensive backfield again this season.

The Patriots offense regained control by the half, though. First, Gostkowski tied it for the Pats after a 50 yard drive was stopped inside the Jets 10. After the Pats D held and forced a punt on the next Jets possession, Brady led the Pats on a 80 yard corker that featured a pounding Pats ground game behind Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney. They set up Brady, who finished the drive by hitting Dan Graham on a threaded third down throw into double coverage from the Jets 1. The Patriots were back in front by seven by halftime.

There they remained, as the teams swapped field goals through the third quarter. After Nugent hit his third and final kick to begin the final period, Brady went to work again. After nearly being picked on a long throw to Chad Jackson to start the drive (Jackson actually made a nice strip there), Brady pulled in the reigns, going back to the ground with Maroney and Corey Dillon (running hard after an early fumble set up Nugent’s first three-pointer) and hitting Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell and Gaffney with crucial throws. When the Jets tightened again inside their own 10, Brady moved Faulk pre-snap and sent him alone into the flat for the quarterback’s second TD throw of the day. Sixty yards, six points, and perhaps most importantly, six minutes off the clock. The Pats led by two touchdowns with five minutes to play.

Samuel blew it open on the second play of the next Jets possession, when he worked a combination coverage to perfection. The soon-to-be free agent corner, who has not heard the last of his comments to Jackie MacMullen in today’s Globe, looked to be following Laveranues Coles deep when he doubled back, right in front of Justin McCareins. He grabbed Pennington’s throw and - unlike last week - he didn’t hesitate to tack on another score.

And so it was, save for The Hug. Despite reports to the contrary, no guard would be changing today.

The Patriots defensive line got consistent pressure with just four men, allowing enough players to drop into coverage and keep Pennington out of the end zone. Seymour led the front in tackles, Ty Warren was a force early, and Vince Wilfork pushed the middle and hit Pennington. Tully Banta Cain did too, sacking him twice. You cannot say the Patriots aren’t getting contributions from practically everyone.

Rosevelt Colvin caused a third quarter stir when he broke in on Pennington’s left to swat down a screen pass as the Jets approached midfield. Suddenly, everyone (at least Wilfork and several dozen people on the Patriots sideline) realized it was a fumble, as the ball had gone parallel to the line of scrimmage, and the returning nose tackle (back after missing the last three games) rumbled 31 yards to the Jets 15 with the recovery. The play set up Gostkowski’s second field goal, and restored a seven point lead.

The Patriots special teams had a couple of dicey moments early with Justin Miller, but by and large they had the edge. Maroney was back on kick returns, and twice he got the Patriots to the 40 to start a drive.

An invigorating win, and one that reminds (thanks to that fourth quarter) us just how good we have it in New England. And how far they have to come in New York. Their yapping dog media and fans would do well to remember just how helpless their team was over the final eleven minutes today as they force down their latest steaming helping of Shut The F**k Up.

So it’s on to San Diego from here. Let me be the first to say that if the Patriots can get by the league-leading Chargers next week, there will be no stopping them. God help whoever they play. If they’re still standing this time next week, they WILL win an amazing fourth Super Bowl this decade. Like they used to say in New York - I guarantee it.

Game Day Blog - The Sunday (Wildcard) Papers

sunday_links.jpgby Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

Stay classy, then San Diego.

This much is known already today - if the Patriots can get by the Jets in this afternoon’s Wildcard matchup at Gillette Stadium, they’ll earn the right to wing westward for a divisional round date with the AFC’s standard bearers for 2006, the San Diego Chargers.

Indy’s pummeling of Kansas City yesterday also ensures that today’s home playoff game will be the only one for New England this season.

Make it count, my fellow fans. To help you get ready, here’s a look at the Sunday papers.

It’s a Globe tradition. Save the best shit stirring for the playoffs. Today, with no coaching change in the offing, and no drug stories available, Jackie MacMullen brings us Asante Samuel, who picks today to go public with his unhappiness over his pending contract negotiations. Basically, same shit, different player, and you can already see where this one might be going. I don’t get Samuel, who’s been a quiet guy (name me one Samuel quote), picking the start of the playoffs to start positioning himself to ‘Get Paid’, as his tattoo instructs. I mean, I get it - when better, than when the attention is on you? But it’s a grab for a personal goal just at the time we count on these guys to put them aside for a few minutes. Why isn’t Dan Graham hitting up a scribe to give him a hand with his wallet, for example? I don’t really know, but I know what it looks like. And I know what Samuel’s comments look like too.

Anyway, you’ll never convince me the Globe doesn’t try to lob these shells when they have the most ‘effect’. Here’s a feature piece that goes back to Samuel playing high school quarterback, for crissakes, but there’s this fairly explosive (given last off-season) news story sloppily tacked on the front of it. It doesn’t flow worth a damn. And don’t tell me the Globe just got this tidbit a few hours ago, and they put it up on the site as soon as they had it. This is the editorial judgement, quite simply, of a bunch of pricks.

One guy who’s proven to be above the Morrissey Mindset is our pal Mike Reiss, who looks at today’s matchup of familiar rivals. Mike also notes (conveniently, in his Notebook) that the Pats will have to pay special attention when on special teams today. Christopher L. Gaspar has been plugging away down in New York all week, and in his Notebook today, he reminds us that the Jets have one of the premier 3rd down offenses in the league. He also has a look at the NFL’s comeback player of the year, Chad Pennington. Jim McBride gives the edge to the Pats in his scouting report.

Ron Borges has a solid feature on a difficult year for Richard Seymour, who has battled injury throughout. Ron slaps around Mike Felger pretty good with this one. Ron blazes again with his weekly Football Notes, featuring a post mortem in Oakland - has there been a falling out with old friend Al Davis? - and a bit about Nick Saban, who is all of a sudden referenced as “Bill Belichick’s best friend in coaching” (as if we wouldn’t know who Saban is otherwise) the week he flees the Dolphins under questionable circumstances. Ron also touches base with a Navy doctor and Pats fan in Kuwait, who will be drawing inspiration from the Patriots today. This was very nice. Even though Ron slips in a bit about “childish obsession(s) with sports.” Hasn’t Ron spent nearly all of his adult life writing about sports for a living? A look inside the cynical mentality of a sports journalism veteran. Go write about cars or something, then. Anyway, I thought Ron had been sort of dull with the Notes all season, but he’s cranked up his game for the playoffs. I have that familiar taste of bile again.

Amalie Benjamin has a couple of sidebars today: a look at a late-season surge by the Pats offensive line, and another on veteran Jarvis Green, who long ago wrested away Willie Clay’s ‘big play’ title, especially for his work in the playoffs.

Seriously, Dan Shaughnessy devoted his column today to a look back at Mo Lewis’s hit on Drew Bledsoe. I’m not linking it, of course. Lewis’s hit ‘changed the franchise’ here in New England! Did it? Oooooooo! Honstly, the funniest thing about this late season Pats run has been watching people like Shaughnessy and Tony Mazz post these football columns. They look like fish flopping around on hot pavement.

At the Herald, Michael Felger says the Pats got caught napping in their last game with the Jets, and he doubts it will happen again. Mike says the Patriots’ blitz pick up is the game within a game today. This has been a theme all week - I am going to be severely disappointed if people are running free on Tom Brady after all this build-up. Felger also goes Inside the Huddle for a look at the other AFC playoff contenders and how the Pats measure up, then runs through some Quick Hits about Nick Saban, and alleges a stats-conscious Pats team. Lastly, Felger has bits on Richard Seymour and Cleveland OC Jeff Davidson, which are so short they might have been well placed in, oh, Quick Hits.

Albert Breer looks at how the Patriots are handling the increased intensity of the playoffs. Albert notes that 17 Pats will play their first playoff game today. John Tomase, seemingly underutilized in this morning’s paper, offers his weekly What to Look For scouting report. I’m still applauding Tomase’s digging on the Rodney Harrison injury last Sunday. Karen Guregian says the Jets run game has struggled without the great Curtis Martin, though the normally reticent Pete Kendall suggests it’s been good enough.

The Herald closes with Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post saying that the hiring of Eric Mangini is the third best decision in the history of the franchise. Which goes to my point on Friday - these guys haven’t done a thing in 40 years. Speaking of the delusional rantings of the New York media, you can find more here at Bruce Allen’s New York Sports Pages. Good luck.

In the ProJo, a well-done, though uncredited (Art? Is that you?), story takes the long view - the Patriots may be beginning a major run at history today. If New England can win four more games, they’ll be just the third team in league history to take four titles in six seasons (the others were the 60’s Packers and the 70’s Steelers).

Shalise Manza Young has a nice turn on Dean Pees, the underappreciated coordinator whose defensive unit set a team record for fewest points allowed. All this talk about a former DC and very little about the current one, but Young takes a step towards evening it up here. Joe McDonald has his weekly analysis of the matchups, and curiously gives the advantage to the Jets offense over the Patriots defense. I’m hoping I just read that wrong.

Jim Donaldson decides, in light of the ‘He won’t say his NAME!’ controversy, to play the Name Game. I admit - when I saw the first ‘name’ was Adam Vinatieri, I stopped reading.

Well, this is what we watch for, really. The pure enjoyment of witnessing fierce competition, amazing athleticism, and inspiring toughness and guile. Then there’s the all-important partisan Pride of Place. Our hope that our team will be the one to win the big game, the one to survive and forge ahead. That we’ll be the fans who celebrate, not regurgitate, who head back to our real lives tomorrow with a little spring in our step, not a slight slump in our shoulders. Childish? This is just fun, dammit - a little bit of fun, for people whose lives each hold their own challenges that must be faced, and get faced, every day. We’re sorry we’re enjoying ourselves, Ron. Its the worst kind of screwed up that we should have a sportswriter - of all people, a man who makes a living off our backs - begrudging us for it. Screw him, and screw them. Enjoy yourselves today.

Keep checking the latest news at Reiss’s Pieces, and if you’ve got a mind to keep reading this morning, please be our guest at the Patriots News Mash Up. I’ll be back after the game.

GDRV Roundtable - Wildcard Weekend Edition

by Scott Benson, Greg Doyle, Tim Jordan and Bruce Allen
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

The NFL playoffs have finally arrived, and lo and behold, who should the Patriots bump into first on the road to the Super Bowl but the New York Jets.

You remember the Jets, right? They won the Super Bowl in 1968? Then they…..they…..well, they……….

Let’s review. Last year, the Patriots were Won and Done in the playoffs, and most observers considered that a disappointing season for three-time champions New England. On the other hand, had it been the Jets, that ‘disappointment’ would have tied for third-best season of the last (almost) forty years. They make the Rangers look like the 80’s Edmonton Oilers.

Those Jets.

With the Jets and Patriots ‘rivalry’ now placed in proper historical context for the benefit of the all-pillage, no-pelt Jet media and fandom, let’s call on the panel for a brief review of last Sunday, and a look ahead to Wild Card Weekend, with the season on the line for our New England Patriots.

Last week, much of the discussion centered on whether Bill Belichick would choose to ‘protect’ his starters vs. Tennessee, as he did last year in the final game with Miami. Belichick chose to go with his first string through much of the game, which turned out to be an extraordinarily chippy contest that featured what was perhaps a season-ending injury to the already-comebacking Rodney Harrison. What were your thoughts on the coach’s approach?

Scott: I was glad to see them go all out as I had hoped, but something still struck me a kind of strange. Specifically, Brady is out there in this dogfight all game, no holding back, and yet he’s suddenly sent to the bench in favor of Matt Cassel with a hard-earned three point lead and just 11 minutes to play. Anything can happen at that point in terms of winning or losing the game, if that was the objective. That decision seemed out of sorts from the approach over the previous 49 minutes, and I’ll be damned if I can wrap my head around it. I suppose he now has 11 minutes of Cassel in a pretty pressurized situation, something he didn’t have before, and who knows, maybe it makes a difference later. I was glad he played Brady (and the rest of the first string) the way he did, getting them a tough road win against a young team that had been flying. I like their momentum going into the playoffs a lot better this way. But it just seemed like they put everything out there - and a lot at risk - all day long, presumably to win, and then handed a three-point lead and most of the fourth quarter to a second year quarterback. That could have blown up pretty easy, which would have made me wonder why Brady was out there all day in the first place. I just figured in there for 49, in there for 60. Just odd, and of course, the answer will remain a mystery.

Greg: I am not sure the nature of the game didn’t dictate leaving the starters in a bit longer. And let’s not forget Harrison was injured pretty early. I was advocating playing it out and it ended up not making a difference in playoff seedings, but I am still glad they decided to. I agree with Scott it was a bit odd the timing of putting Cassel in there and I was questioning at the time it happened. But it worked out and was probably a good experience for him, so I guess the results speak for themselves.

Tim: I don’t know how it can be construed as anything but very positive. You could see the way the players responded during and after the game that playing this one to win was the right thing to do. Even the Testaverde pass sent euphoria throughout the sidelines. Winning the way they did against a desperate, well coached team was impressive and the team gained even more momentum for the post season. In addition to that, it was one of the more entertaining (and satisfying) games of the year to watch. Beating two teams fighting for playoff berths to end the year is a good thing.

Bruce: I’m glad they went for the win, and I can understand why Cassell was put in the game at the point at which he was. They needed to see Cassell play with the starters to give him a little experience with that group, instead of the second stringers, as well as being in a game where the team is going all out. Hindsight being a perfect 20/20 I kind of wish he had held Harrison back as he apparently did Watson, Wilfork and Faulk, who some think could’ve played, but were held out as a precaution. I like that the game had a playoff intensity to it, I think that it was a nice tuneup to start the postseason.

How badly does the loss of Harrison hurt the Patriots?

Greg: Since he joined the team, the Patriots are 43-6 in games Harrison starts and plays beyond the first series. They are 11-7 in games he doesn’t play. That can’t be completely a coincidence. He is the key on defense. He is always around the ball. He brings a certain level of confidence and toughness that translates to the defense, particularly the secondary, when he is in there. It hurts, no doubt.

Tim: It hurts, and not just emotionally. Rodney Harrison has a very firm handle on the defensive sets and his presence allows Pees to make more exotic calls, particularly with blitzes from the safety position. Rodney was starting to blitz, or show blitz, very well in his second game back and was doing it again before the injury. Sanders has shown more as the season has progressed, but he’s not the same player. Sanders is competent, but he doesn’t have the same command of the defense as Harrison. I like that we’ve started to notice him picking up more tackles, but most came in the backfield after solid runs by Henry.

Bruce: The stats that Greg cites are hard to argue with. He means a lot. However, I feel a bit better about it than I did when he went down the first time earlier in the season. James Sanders has made a lot of improvements since the beginning of the season. He seems to be around the ball a lot more, and is making plays at the line of scrimmage, coming in to stop a few runs. He’s certainly not at the level of Harrison, but he’s better than he was before and seems to be growing as a young player. Harrison is an emotional leader to the team and adds that level of toughness to the defense. Artrell Hawkins seems to be another nice leader for the secondary and having him back there with Sanders is a benefit. Chad Scot has also been in the safety spot at times this season and has done pretty well.

Scott: Three times in two years he has had a significant injury - I said it earlier in the year, they have to make addressing this reality a higher priority, even in free agency. Oddly, the repeated absences kind of work in the Pats favor this time, in the sense that Hawkins and Sanders (and sometimes Chad Scott) had just finished patching up that position for six weeks Rodney missed with a shoulder injury. So at least they have that experience working for them. Sad to say, they’re pretty well accustomed to playing without Rodney Harrison. It hurts them of course, the loss of his instincts, aggressiveness and presence. He’s a unique player. But I maintain it hurts them less because they’ve dealt with it so often lately.

All right, let’s get right to the game. Since this is the playoffs, let’s BREAK. IT. DOWWWN. First, Jets offense vs. Patriots defense.

Tim: The best matchup for the Patriots in this game. It’s natural to remember Kevan Barlow running wild (for him anyway) in that second meeting in Foxborough, as well as Pennington making nut-crunching 3rd down throws on two drives in the same game. But, let’s look at the whole body of work. 4 sacks and one interception in the first game for the defense, including one sequence in the 3rd quarter when even Patriots fans were starting to feel bad about how easily our defensive front was dominating the Jets offense. The key to the upcoming tilt here will be to take away Washington’s screens and the very good WR tandem of Coles and Cotchery.

Bruce: Pennington is very much trick or treat against the Patriots. He’s had some very good games against them, and has also had some very poor games. The Jets haven’t been a great running game, but had improved. The Patriots need to take the run away from the Jets totally, and force Pennington into some tough throws. I think the Jets will try and go deep on the Patriots for the big play and how the Patriots defend that could be a key to the game.

Scott: I think the Jets will give the Patriots a very good game on Sunday, but I can’t see it happening here. The Jets have had middling production from both the run and the pass, and they’ve lower shelf as scorers too. The Patriots defense has been too good for too long this season to wilt now, not against a garden variety group like this. The Jets may drive the ball a bit now and then, make some third downs (they’re quite good at this) but they’re not going to be the ones to beat the Patriots. One thing: Asante Samuel - who’s been very good - at times seemed to have the ball skills of Nick Esasky last week. Unos, dos, tres, catorce, indeed. The gambles are no good if you have to feel around for the ball like it’s in a dark closet. I’m kind of spooked by the picture of Samuel defending a deep ball that he thinks he can pick.

Greg: It may seem strange, but I have always felt the key to defending Pennington is almost the same way you’d defend a scrambling quarterback. Although Pennington doesn’t take off and run down field much, he does move around in the backfield more than your average quarterback. And he can complete passes equally well rolling left or right. This is where he does most of his damage, if you’ve really watched him over the years. So, I have always felt you contain him on the outside and force him to throw from the pocket in traditional drop-back fashion. You don’t need to overly blitz him, just make him throw downfield and take away the flats. He simply doesn’t have the arm to do it consistently and will struggle. Against the run, if they play the run as they most of the year, they should be fine and force the Jets to be one-dimensional.

How about Patriots offense vs. Jets defense?

Bruce: Run run run. Then mix up and try to use Caldwell as they did last week…a breakaway threat. The Jets are likely going to be a bit shorthanded in the secondary, so if the Patriots can protect Brady better than they did last time, they should be in good shape.

Scott: The Jets defense is pretty rangy and athletic, and we saw last time they have the ability, design and discipline to put somone in Brady’s face from almost anywhere on the field. It’s hard to call this matchup as anything but a ‘pick ‘em’, with a slight edge to the team that is fortunate enough to have Tom Brady. Still, the Jets are pretty damn comparable to the Patriots defense in most major defensive stats, with one exception: run defense. The Jets are not even average. I like the idea of multiple formations, from tight to spread, that are grounded in, well, the ground. Show them everything, try to get outside, but keep hammering at their gut with Dillon and Maroney. Heath Evans too. Kevin Faulk. We’ll call this the Bruce Allen game plan.

Greg: The Jets are solid on defense. They play smart and disciplined. The Patriots have to be patient and also run the ball like they did in the first half of the last game. They may be able to hit a couple long passes over Jets cornerback David Barrett if they pick their spots right.

Tim: This is the matchup that has some question marks for the Patriots. Mangini did a great job against Brady in the second half in week 2 and for the whole game in the second meeting. He disguised blitzes well and you could see, particularly in the second half of the Jets win, that Brady struggled with recognizing it. Brady can’t turn the ball over on sacks as he’s done more this year than any other that I can remember, including against the Jets. If the Jets win it will be on this side of the ball.

Who gets the special teams edge?

Scott: At first, I think ‘even’, as both teams have good returners and are generally thought to be well coached by Brad Seely and Mike Westhoff. I’m giving the edge to the Jets, though, because the Patriots were so horrible last week. How can you play like that one week before the playoffs? God help us if that wasn’t an abberation.

Greg: I’d give this an even. The Patriots have returned the ball on punts and kicks very well at times this year. The Jets are solid at coverage. The reverse is true as well, though it wasn’t last week in coverage for the Patriots. But it should be corrected this week. The kickers even out and are both inexperienced. Call this a draw.

Tim: Two well coached teams that like to play “complementary football”, as it has now been dubbed. If you look at the league leaders in kick-off returns you see two familiar names at the top of the list: Justin Miller and Laurence Maroney. Maroney may not handle kick-offs this week with the lingering rib cartilage injury, but the team responded well to Ellis Hobbs in that role last week. Graham is a middle of the road punter and the Jets punt returns have not been as productive as the Patriots. I’d call this a stalemate.

Bruce: I think I need to give the Jets the edge here. The Patriots have been way too inconsistent in this area all season. I wonder if we’ll see more of Chad Jackson on punt returns, but I kind of doubt it, they say Ben Graham has a tough ball to catch with his Australian kicking style, which often creates a knuckleball effect. They have GOT to cover kicks better too.

Handshakes and references by name aside, who wins the coaching matchup?

Greg: The Patriots. Eric Mangini has done a good job and far better than I expected. But they had an incredibly easy schedule and I still think it’ll be interesting to see how he does in the second year of his program next year with a tougher schedule.

Tim: Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL, despite the wishes of the rest of the football community (media and fans alike). He’s the superior coach in every match-up he faces. However, as I have said since we learned that the Patriots would be playing the Jets, Eric Mangini is more intimate with the New England methodologies than probably any other coach in the league. That’s unfortunate and it gives me pause. Mangini can put his players in a position to steal this game with that intrinsic knowledge, but that doesn’t make him the better coach. It would be an upset, which we all know happen in this league quite a bit, especially in this round of the playoffs.

Bruce: Believe it or not, I don’t see coaching being a huge factor in this one. It’s going to come down to the execution on the field. The Patriots have the better talent and need to exploit that advantage. The two teams and coaches know each other so well, I don’t think that there is much that is going to be a surprise on either side.

Scott: Like Greg said, the Jets have done far better than expected, and Mangini is proving that he is a better coach and more ready to lead than initially given credit for. And as Tim points out, he knows plenty about how the Patriots go about their football business. But that’s Bill Belichick standing over there. And that’s NOT Mike Shanahan standing over there. Edge to Bill, and I might add, a perhaps badly-underrated and undercredited Dean Pees.

The Patriots have a few key players,like rookies Laurence Maroney and Stephen Gostkowski, playing in their first playoff game. As Daniel Graham said on Wednesday, it’s do or die time with no margin for error. Any concerns about that?

Tim:This goes back to coaching too. I am not concerned. Belichick teams prepare all year for playoff football, methodically getting better each week of the season. You cannot point to any of Gostkowski’s misses this year and attribute them to nerves. I think that’s overrated and probably an amplified aspect of the game because of Gostkowski’s predecessor and not any shortcomings as a placekicker. Maroney seems nonplussed by heightened circumstances and he’s not being asked the carry the load, just to perform in the role that he has all year. It is “do or die”, but it’s not the first time either player has performed in a pressure situation.

Bruce: The Jacksonville and Tennessee games were good tuneups for the postseason. I think they’ll be fine.

Scott: Maroney I’m not worried about. He really looks like a solid kid and a real competitor. This is going to gall Tim, but I am secretly hoping that this game is decided by a Stephen Gostkowski field goal attempt from 43 yards out with something less than 10 seconds left on the clock. I am that sure he’s going to make it.

Greg: Sure. But the Jets have rookies or young players playing too. Its not like you can change what you do to accomodate the young players. You just have to hope they’re prepared, you chose them well and see how it goes.

Let’s have it then - the final score.

Bruce: Patriots 23-20.

Scott: Patriots 16-13.

Greg: Patriots 20-10.

Tim: 17 - 10, Good guys. Defensive struggle with the offense doing just enough to let the defense seal the deal. They need to have 3 or 4 long drives and to continue their exemplary work in the red zone to get the win.

I don’t suppose anybody would have a Mediot of the Week?

Scott: I don’t, actually: instead, I have a BSMW Howdy! and thumbs up to our pal from the message board, rrsafety. rr caught a bit of radio this week that set him to thinking, and if you know our friend, you know a painstakingly thorough deconstruction is about to commence (usually offering top shelf entertainment value in the process). This is one of his best - Lies My Radio Told Me. Read it (even Michael Felger did), and perhaps think of it the next time you’re suffering through the White Noise that fronts the media’s various moneymaking operations.

Greg: How about Mike Vaccaro from the NY Post? Ole’ Mike apparently lost control of his faculties for a moment and wrote this line:

“JEFF Van Gundy has walked in Eric Mangini’s shoes before, felt the raging waters of loyalty and loathing collide within his bloodstream. He knows what it’s like to be shunned by a man he used to lionize, for whom he gladly would have taken a bullet, for whom he willingly worked endless strings of 20-hour days.”

Mangini would have not only “taken a bullet” for Bill Belichick, but would have done so “gladly?” Ummm, yeah. Kinda speaks for itself, doesn’t it?

Tim: So, I am reading the dailies today and I notice, yet again, that Tony Massorotti has the vapors. This poor guy has been fighting early onset menopause for the better part of the season. I just pray that shingles aren’t far behind. Curious, I went back through the Herald archives to get a better understanding of Massorotti’s take on the team. I wanted to get a look at his last month of Patriots columns and see if any trends emerged. After painfully reading each column since December 11th, I can confidently say that Tony would be a much better fiit covering the cat fights inside the cheerleaders locker room. You know, bringing the reader closer to the captivating drama of whether Wendy deserves second chair or exactly what Kristina is doing in the bathroom that takes so long.

Here is a quick recap:

December 11: Pats are nothing special: Clearly an ordinary team

In some respects, this was only one game, but in so many others, it was a reaffirmation of what the Patriots have been, a flawed team that beats up on bad competition and can’t make plays when it has to. Teams like that don’t win championships.

Why not, Mas?

They just don’t.

Ohhhh. Okay.

December 18: So, They Beat Houston

What we learned, yet again, is the Patriots can beat a bad team into submission. What we do not know, still, is whether they can stand up to someone who hits back.

What, 13 win Chicago (5th best defense in the NFL) doesn’t hit back? The AFC East (winningest division in football) doesn’t either?

December 25: Guts will get you glory: Pats prove two tough for Jags

But then, what are the Pats if not the model of resiliency and toughness, of perseverance and grit? Every year, the Pats seem to reinvent themselves. Every year, they end up back in the playoffs. So long as the latter remains true, the Pats will be contenders for the Super Bowl.

But…but..what about “They just don’t”? Oh, that was 2 games ago when they were only 9-4 after losing to a team they struggle against on the road every year, including the gold standard 2004 season that everyone likes to remind me this team isn’t as good as. Well at least he’s coming around to the fact that this team is a contender. I am sure this will be reinforced after a physical win over a surging Titans team to end the regular season. Right, Massengil?

January 1: Behavior’s so foolish: Pats had much to lose with win

But for much of this game, with the playoffs now only a matter of days away, the Patriots gave in to their most primitive instincts and engaged in an unnecessary streetfight.

They had so much more to lose than the Titans in this game. And they got sucked in nonetheless.

So, now hitting back ISN’T a good thing? What happened? Is that really the biggest story to come out of that final game? I heard no one else share this sentiment all week.

Then today, readers breathlessly await Tony’s take on the upcoming playoff game against the Jets. Our ace football observer echoes what I am sure each and every reader is thinking, but just doesn’t have the guts to share at the water cooler.

January 4: Bill’s recognition factor: Mangini earns praise

Only three days remain before the latest installment of the Border War (Mangini Edition), and let the record show that Belichick this time fired the first shot. Certainly, it didn’t have to be this way.

He STARTED it! Way to break it down, buddy. Massengil joins a notorious list of media in Boston that give fans extra satisfaction after the team wins. I guess we should thank him for that. Next time you see him out, buy him a Zima or something.

Bruce: Gary Tanguay is always a good choice. This week he was posing the following question to guests on his FSN show: “CAN the Patriots win without Rodney Harrison?” When you watch or listen to Tanguay, you can see that he makes no effort to disguise the fact that he’s just taking a contrarian stance for the sake of it. He may have gotten a movie role, but he’s a terrible actor.

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