By Greg Doyle
greg@bostonsportsmedia.com

Well, here we are, heading into the second half of the season with the Patriots coming off a poor and disappointing performance against the Colts. Fear not, things rarely end up in the NFL how they appear at midseason. That could be good, it could be bad. But its unlikely to stay the same. Lets see what is happening around the Patriots this week.

It appears Rodney Harrison will be lost for an extended period of time. How will the Patriots deal with this loss?

Greg: I expect we’ll see some of Chad Scott at safety. He’s played well this year and it’ll be nice to have him on the field more. Obviously, though, you’d still rather have Harrison out there. Getting Eugene Wilson back will help a lot as well. And hopefully Harrison will be back in a month or so. Luckily for the Patriots, besides the Bears game, the schedule isn’t too tough the rest of the year.

Scott: The hard part here is that Artrell Hawkins - who filled this role decently in 2005 - is over covering for Eugene Wilson, who may be headed for a lost season. On Sunday night, the Pats moved another veteran, Chad Scott, into Rodney’s spot, but damn, Scott was just starting to look good at corner. Judging from the results last week, they could use the help there too. It seems their hands are tied - James Sanders has yet to give them any real alternative to moving Scott back there. This hurts them either way. Who’s helping Hobbs and Samuel now? The Pats just waived Antwain Spann, the only other CB on the roster.

Another thought: this is two years in a row that Rodney has suffered a significant injury. Not to offend, but the day may be coming when his body will no longer do what his head and his heart tell it to do. The Patriots have GOT to more seriously address their safety position this off-season. Michael Lewis, the 5th year strong safety from the Eagles, is slated to be a free agent at the expiration of his rookie deal. Dare the Pats try turn the tables and steal away another team’s emerging star? And since I’m so far off-topic already, I’ll also remind the Patriots that they need to figure out if there’s ANYthing in their conditioning and/or practice routines and/or position techniques that is making their defensive backs more suceptible to injury. Commission a study, or something, for crissakes. This is ridiculous.

Bruce: Actually Scott, our own Bill Barnwell did try and take a run at figuring out the Patriots secondary injuries, it’s in the post right below this one. It’s interesting, but of course doesn’t help the current situation. They’re going to have to hope that they can keep the rest of the guys healthy, otherwise they’re going to have to go with players who haven’t played much at all, or hope to pick up the next Artrell Hawkins off the scrap heap somewhere. With Samuel and Hobbs at the corners and Hawkins and Scott manning the safety spots (I’m not counting on a Wilson return just yet) they’re pretty thin back there. I think it’s possible that when Wilson does come back he plays more corner than safety. (Funny - isn’t that the opposite of what I said all preseason - but I turned out to be right then.)

How has Peyton Manning managed to improve his performance against the Patriots the past two seasons?

Greg: A big thing is it hasn’t been the playoffs. Combine that with injuries, decimating ones last year and a few this year as well, and the Patriots haven’t done as good a job. Still, Manning is more than overdue for his next horrible performance against the Patriots. Maybe it will come again at playoff time.

Scott: I suppose the standard answer is that the Patriots players aren’t as good as they were a couple of years ago (because of Belichick’s cruelty and Kraft’s thriftiness!!!!): the X’s and O’s miss the Jimmys and Joes, as it were. That’s not a point I care to argue. But I don’t think that angle takes into account the possibility that after repeatedly getting their brains beat in by the Patriots, Manning and Tom Moore and the rest finally figured out a way they could move the ball on the Pats defense, and most importantly, Manning has been executing it. That has to be factored in there somewhere. I’ve been most impressed by his composure when the Patriots combine a good rush with disruptive coverage. Before, that was most often a frustrated throw away, a brutal sacking,or even a humiliating turnover. Now he takes a step or two sideways and dumps it underneath for first downs. Is that because the coverage isn’t as good, or is it because he now understands the coverage well enough to beat it?

Bruce: Well, as with most things, I don’t think you can pin it on any one thing, even though that’s what the media tries to do. It’s a combination of Manning getting better and the Patriots stepping back slightly. I don’t think he’s overcome it all completely though, and his comments after the game about the Chad Scott interception were slightly cocky (essentially saying that Scott messed up the coverage and got lucky) which could bode well for the Patriots in the future. Lull him into some false sense of security or something like that.

Despite the bad performance by the Patriots this week, was there anyone who played well and deserves a game ball?

Scott: Troy Brown. I love to tell people that I was in the stands for Troy Brown’s first NFL play (home opener, 1993): an opening kickoff return that he fumbled into a Detroit Lions touchdown, a play that inspired a guy a few rows ahead of me to scream “SAME SHIT, DIFFERENT UNA-FAWMS!!!!”. Brown got waived a year later, thtough he ultimately returned. So he started from the bottom: first on special teams, where he quickly became indispensable. Then a mid-career blossoming as’go-to’ receiver, where he piled up 281 catches between 2000-2003. All of it done in the most competitive, professional manner, with great humility, the way you wish everybody would. Now he’s the leading Patriots receiver of all time, fittingly.

Bruce: Artell Hawkins. Love that guy. It’s hard to believe he was out of the league much of last season, and now he’s become a really solid piece to this Patriots secondary. He’s more than a fill in, he adds something to the club. I think even if Wilson returns to full health, Hawkins might own a safety spot for the rest of the year.

Greg: I’ll go with Junior Seau. He’s really been very solid in the middle this year and done a great job solidifying things. Good game from him again the other night. He gets my game ball.

Why did the Patriots go away from the run the other night in the second half?

Greg: Some of it was just poor decision making on the playcallers parts. That has gotten a lot of attention. But some of it was situational. For example, their first play of the second half Corey Dillon fumbled. Next thing you know, they’re down ten. Who is to say they wouldn’t have gone on a long, run-oriented, clock killing drive to take the lead had the fumble not occurred? We’ll never know. Next time they get the ball, they pass for a first down. Run for a loss of one and now are looking at 2nd and 11. Do you want to run there? Maybe, but they choose to pass and after an incompletion, its third and long. The next drive, they are down ten and try one run that goes for no gain. It wasn’t like they were ripping off big runs there first three drives of the second half. They got on their run attempts to start a fumble, a loss of one and a no gain. As I said, somewhat situational.

Bruce: Is it possible that they out-smarted themselves? “The Colts are going to think we’re going to run here, so lets try to do THIS, and really surprise them…” It seems unlikely, but who knows…I was more surprised that I was sitting there in agreement with John Madden who was saying that the Patriots could just line up and run and the Colts wouldn’t be able to stop them.

Scott: I mentioned this Sunday: the worm has turned, and now its the Patriots’ turn to play nervous, fidgety Felix Unger to the Colts’deadpan Oscar Madison. Turnovers (HONK!), penalties (HONK!), referees (HONK!). I may be crazy, but didn’t the whole operation feel a little harried on Sunday? They certainly weren’t the confident, composed Patriots, either on the field or on the sidelines. Did they come in there thinking they had to score every time they touched the ball? It felt like it. Using Greg’s example, I don’t see what’s so bad about running on a couple of those 2nd and 11 situations. There was seven minutes left in the 3rd quarter. It seems to me that an extended methodical drive would have come in handy at that point. Give your defense a rest and put the pressure back on the Colts offense to defend a late three point lead. But instead the Patriots acted like they were 10 points down with seven minutes left in the FOURTH quarter - which they eventually were.

Okay, so who is the mediot of the week?

Greg: Oh, I don’t know. Lets go with Tony Kornheiser. Not for anything Patriots related, just that he is so damn painful to listen to and annoying on the Monday night broadcasts.

Scott: I would really like someone to ask Bill Belichick about Eric Mangini. Because I am so freaking fascinated with the subject. But the New England football scribes are notoriously obsessed with the esoteric game strategy stuff, leaving no time for the red meat that we crave.

Bruce: How about the entire media universe…including us…who picked the Patriots in a rather easy romp for Sunday night. I should’ve known…the dreaded reverse-lock theory always holds true.

Last week saw Greg go 4-1, Bruce also go 4-1 and Scott with the 4-1 Trifecta. Lets look at these games this week: Buffalo at Indianapolis; Kansas City at Miami; San Diego at Cincinnati; Houston at Jacksonville; Denver at Oakland and New Orleans at Pittsburgh.

Greg (4-1 last week, 27-25 overall): Indy is playing well. Buffalo is not very good and Losman is a poor QB, the verdict is in. Indy wins. Miami got on a bit of a roll last week, lets say they continue it at home versus KC. San Diego takes out the overrated Bengals, Jacksonville cruises at home against Houston, Denver beats up on the horrible Oakland offense and Pittsburgh rebounds to beat New Orleans.

Scott (4-1 last week, 31-21 overall): I expect Indy will find a way to beat the Bills. Just think how embarrassed we’ll be if they don’t. I’m going to take a shot and say Miami is buoyed enough by their huge upset of Chicago to handle the Chiefs. I’ll take the steady Chargers over the Bengals - Cincinnati seems intent on making it all the way to the bottom of the bowl. Jacksonville will lock down the Texans (yawn), Denver will win in Oakland (yawn), and I’m going to gamble that the Saints aren’t yet good enough to walk in to Pittsburgh and win.

Bruce (4-1 last week, 37-15 overall): Indy wins, but Anthony Thomas shows how poor the Colts run defense really is. Kansas City can outscore Miami. San Diego over the Bengals, Jacksonville over the Texans, Denver over Oakland, and New Orleans over the defeated Steelers.

So who wins the Patriots-Jets game?

Greg: Got to go with the Patriots to rebound here. They are better than the Jets and won’t play poorly two weeks in a row. Patriots 23-13.

Scott: I’ll take the Pats, but you know, the offense played so poorly the other night that I can’t predict they’ll have a lot of breathing room in this one. Pats 17-13.

Bruce: Patriots, 31-17.

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

Watching Trees Decompose

Last week’s injury to Rodney Harrison was the latest in a seemingly-interminable series of injuries that has decimated the Patriots secondary for the better part of three years. The reason why this injury bug has bitten the Patriots secondary repeatedly isn’t in the numbers: educated guesses, though, would seem to indicate one or more of the following things are the case:

• Several members of the Patriots secondary are old and/or injury-prone.
• The Patriots face so many passes by virtue of being ahead in games so frequently that their defensive backs are more likely to get hurt.
• There is something about the way the Patriots secondary trains and/or is used in games that makes them more injury-prone than normal.
• The Patriots have happened to hit three years of bad luck when it comes to the health of their defensive secondary.

I will admit that, personally, I am inclined to think that the third choice above is the primary answer, with choices one and four having some relevance as well. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to ascertain what the root causes of the Patriot training or defensive back usage are that would lead to such injuries without doing seriously intense microanalysis, including analyzing how the Patriots train, something I obviously cannot do. At some point, though, Bill Belichick has to give some serious thought into analyzing what he can do to ensure that his defensive backs stay healthy — whether more liberal substitution, a change in how they build up their health for the season, a different offseason program, something! Because, as I’m about to show you, the Patriots defensive secondary is the most injury-hit in all of football by a substantial margin.

At Football Outsiders, we’ve compiled a database containing all player injuries from 2002-2005. Now, it’s very important that I make two notes — first, while the database should be complete, it is entirely possible that a minor injury here or there could be missing. That’s mainly because, second, the injury database is based upon the weekly injury reports issued by the NFL. Of course, Bill Belichick is famed for, let’s be honest, blatantly manipulating the injury report. He’s not the only one, but he may be the most prominent. To correct for this, we’ve also noted what players listed on the injury report actually did that week — whether they started, substituted, or didn’t play at all.

As a measure of whether Bill Belichick is any more of a liar than the average NFL coach, let’s take a look at the what he’s most famed for — listing guys as questionable whether they’re going to be playing or not. From 2002-2005, Belichick has named 78 defensive backs as questionable in his injury reports, the most in the NFL. On the other hand, there have been 1099 defensive backs in the NFL over that time frame that have been listed as questionable. Below, you can see the percentage of those players listed as Questionable who started, came off the bench, or didn’t play at all:

As you can see, the differences aren’t that dramatic — a slightly higher percentage of Patriots defensive backs listed as questionable ended up not playing, with slightly fewer starting altogether. With that in mind, I think it’s reasonably safe to assume that Belichick’s manipulation of the injury report is slightly overstated, at least for defensive backs.

So now, let’s see if the numbers match up with perception. I noted how many times a defensive back appeared on each team’s injury report from 2002-2005, including players listed on injured reserve. I separated the players into those listed as Probable, Questionable, Doubtful, and Out/IR. Furthermore, since a player listed as Out or on Injured Reserve is much more likely to be injured (remember Troy Vincent, now) than one merely Probable, I calculated a simple weighted score for defensive back injuries, with a “Probable” injury worth 1 point, “Questionable” worth 2 points, “Doubtful” 3, and “Out” or “Injured Reserve” worth 4.

The results? Patriots defensive backs have been significantly more injured over the last four seasons than any team in football.

As you can see, the Colts, surprisingly enough, had the most injuries to their defensive backs over the four-year span, but that was due to a dramatically high number of players listed as Probable. If you look at the weighted score, no one comes particularly close to the Patriots.

The remarkable thing is that nearly all of the figure comes from the last two years — the Patriots were only 19th in weighted injuries in 2002, and 24th in 2003 (when they listed DBs as questionable 18 times but not a single one as Probable, Doubtful, or Out); they were 3rd in 2004, and in 2005, they were remarkably…sore.

The Patriots are the only team to have two appearances in the top five — the 2002 Bengals are 10th. Furthermore, the second-place ‘05 Broncos are closer to seventh than they are to first in weighted injury points.

I wondered about the second possibility I listed at the top of the article; do the Patriots suffer more injuries because they’re ahead in games and, therefore, have their defensive backs doing more work than other teams — or, alternately, have more defensive backs on the field than other teams because they’re in more passing situations?

The answer is no. The correlation between passes attempted against a defense and a team’s weighted injury score for their defensive backs is .002. Between passes attempted against and sheer number of injuries, that correlation rises all the way… to .01. The two items have nothing in common.

So then, there’s evidence that over the last four years, the Patriots defensive backs have been the most injury-riddled in football. How about 2006, you ask? Well, we don’t have all the injuries compiled as of yet to compare the Patriots against, but going through the injury reports for this season, they’ve already compiled 76 weighted points through the first nine games (including this week’s report) of the season. That leaves them on pace to record 135 points for the season, which would’ve been in the top 5 for weighted DB injury points last season; furthermore, with Randall Gay on IR and Rodney Harrison out indefinitely, that number is likely to rise. Forget an injury bug; the Patriots secondary, at this point, is begging for an exterminator.

(Please consider making a donation to the BSMW Fall Fund Drive)

by Greg Doyle
Greg@bostonsportsmedia.com

A look back at Sunday night’s 27-20 Patriots’ loss to Indianapolis was just as unpleasant as watching it live. Make no mistake about it, the Patriots played a very bad game all around. I suppose some solace can be found in the fact as bad as they played, there they were with a chance to tie the game in the final minute and a half deep in Indianapolis territory. Still, had they managed to do so, they still would have been significantly outplayed and that is disappointing in and of itself. Lets look at the units

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady has had a decidely up and down season. Sunday was a definite down point. Perhaps the most down of the season, even more so than the Denver game. Sure, three of the four interceptions he threw were tipped. It unclear to me exactly what Indianapolis did to throw off Brady, but it looks like mainly they just mixed things up. They bumped his receivers off the line on occasion. They doubled his favorite receiver, Ben Watson, on big downs. They threw blitzes at him from different spots. Their front four generated a decent pass rush all night. It was enough to throw off Brady’s accuracy and cause some turnovers. The first interception to hault a drive on the Patriots first drive was an incredibly bad decision unlike Brady to make over the years. He was off on a lot of other throws. He needs to pick up his game and play more consistently if the Patriots are to have a chance to go far this year. One has to think that the passing game, in general, took a step back this week and they’re still a work in progress bound to have ups and downs.

RUNNING BACKS: A decent night. Corey Dillon had two touchdowns. He’s had the habit of pulling himself out of the game since he’s gotten here after longer runs. But those runs seem to get shorter and shorter as the years go by. Its gotten to the point where any run over six yards Dillon seems to pull himself out of the game. With a runner like Dillon, sometimes his powerful style is most effective when it comes right in a row. Bull them over with a seven yard run? Hit them in the mouth again with a repeat dose of the hard-charging Dillon. But he’s out of the game a lot of the time before they can really pound it with him. And against a team like Indianapolis, who is most vulnerable to a power back, that hurts. Laurence Maroney had a good game and was seemingly inches away from breaking a couple runs. Kevin Faulk makes me nervous. And lo and behold, tipping the ball up in the air on the last Patriots drive ended their chances. Its getting to the point with Faulk, the risk-reward analysis is starting to tip towards the risk side. Its getting to the point where I’m not sure I’d use him in a one score game much, except perhaps on third down when you need a pass catcher.

WIDE RECEIVER: Quiet night for this group. Congratulations to Troy Brown for setting the all-time Patriots record for receptions. Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell both had one big catch, but were quiet otherwise. This group needs to improve its play more.

TIGHT END: A decent day for Ben Watson, who had four catches despite close coverage from the Colts. David Thomas got himself open a couple times but Brady couldn’t hit him.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Inconsistent here as well. They were dominant at times run blocking in the first half, but in limited opportunities in the second half weren’t quite as good. They did allow some pressure in the second half particularly in the passing game as well. Billy Yates, filling in at right guard for Stephen Neal, clearly is a downgrade at that spot as well and the Patriots miss Neal.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Pretty good night for this crew. Richard Seymour had one of his better games. He created consistent pressure. The rest of the line was good. This is one unit that more than held its own.

LINEBACKER: Its becoming a legitimate question to begin to ask if Tedy Bruschi has began a decline in his career as he is not nearly playing at his old level and hasn’t all year. He used to be a playmaker, but hasn’t made many this year. He seems to be unable to shed blocks on running plays as effectively as he used to. Hopefully for the Patriots its just a slump and he’ll turn it around the second half of the year. Junior Seau, on the other hand, continues to play well even at his advanced age. He had an excellent game Sunday. The outsiders backers, Mike Vrabel and Roosevelt Colvin were good as well.

SECONDARY: A good night for Chad Scott. Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs, though it wasn’t all their fault, weren’t spectacular at corner. They had some moments, but it wasn’t enough. Rodney Harrison failed to be in position on the Colts first drive on third and long and allowed a receiver to get open to continue the drive. Then he got hurt, which was a problem for the Patriots. No one else stood out.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Patriots generated a couple decent returns, but were horrendous on kickoff coverage all night. It was a big factor in the Patriots never really forcing the Colts into bad field position all night and a battle they lost. The punting was mediocre. They did cause a turnover, but it was offset by bad coverage. Stephen Gostkowski missed one easy field goal.

Overall, a disappointing night for the Patriots. They simply played one of their worst games of the year and it cost them. They can beat the Colts, but have to be on the very top of their game to do so. They’ll have to be a much better team if they do get a chance again and whether they will be, with all the new parts, is still an open question. The Patriots are a good team. Even a very good team. But to beat the Colts, who are clearly still among the league’s best, they’ll have to be great. They have about a half a season to turn themselves from a very good team into a great team or their ultimate goal will not be reached this year.

The Jets come to Foxboro Sunday. Until then.

by Scott Benson

Face it.

The joke is no longer on Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Now it’s on the Patriots.

The Indianapolis Colts left no doubt which team now has the upper hand in the storied rivalry with a crippling 27-20 defeat of the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium tonight.

It was their second straight win in Foxboro, after many well-documented humiliations. Which are now, evidently, ancient history.

There are still a half season of games to play, and anything can happen, but this much is known - the Patriots have lost head-to-head home matchups with the two best teams in the league, Indianapolis and Denver, and are probably already a long shot for a first round bye in January.

Tom Brady had four passes intercepted and the Patriots offense (coaching staff included) coughed up a major league furball to lose this game. Five turnovers and an abundance of ill-timed, gain-negating penalties. A pass-first game plan that de-emphasized the run against the NFL’s worst run defense.

The Patriots defense had a white-knuckle ride trying to keep up with Manning (326 yards and 2 td’s) and his featured receiver Marvin Harrison (8-145 with both of Manning’s scores), but in the second half they (along with special teams) still gave the team a chance. With the Colts up by seven, Artrell Hawkins stripped Terrance Wilkins on a kick return and recovered the fumble at the Indy 46; minutes later, Chad Scott picked Manning deep in Pats territory and returned it to midfield.

The Patriots - despite facing one of the NFL’s most mediocre defenses - scored a grand total of ZERO points on those opportunities, and the Patriots were finished.

After all, the Colts scored only 10 second half points after a back and forth first half, and Adam Vinatieri missed TWO field goal attempts - including one that would have iced the game at the two minute warning. The game was there for the Patriots. And there it remained.

In the Battle of the Titans, Manning outplayed Brady by a wide margin. They had nearly identical attempts and completions, but Manning’s always counted for more. He also avoided the turnovers; though the four picks weren’t all Brady’s fault. It seemed like every tipped ball found its way to a Colt. Naturally, Kevin Faulk was prominently involved, as he muffed a short pass from Brady - which flew directly to Cato June - as the Pats drove to a potential tying score with a minute left.

Despite the Colts’ historically bad run defense, the Patriots threw more than they ran. Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon were both limited to 13 carries apiece, though Dillon ran for both Patriots scores. He also had a third quarter fumble that contributed to the Patriots misery. Maroney was impressive at times, but the Patriots invariably went back to the pass. Twice in the first half Brady took end zone pot shots on 1st down plays inside Colts territory; both throws went into close coverage and were intercepted. Call me a second guesser, but I’m thinking right there they might have mixed in a run.

Instead, the burden went to the receivers, and they shrank from it. A small game played by all of the Pats receivers; Watson, Caldwell, Gabriel, the backs, and so on. 35 throws, and nobody makes a play. Special dispensation is awarded to Troy Brown, who made 5 catches and passed the great Stanley Morgan to become the Patriots all-time receiver.

Brady was under assault most times he threw, but the Patriots o-line didn’t allow a sack. The holes were there when the Pats went to the run, except for a late first half Belichick 4th and inches (curious) gamble at midfield. Then, Brady couldn’t get anywhere behind Billy Yates, and only a terrible ball spot saved the Pats (Brady later threw a pick anyway). I still don’t know what Belichick might have been thinking there, as a stop would have given the Colts (up by three at the time) the ball at midfield with a minute left.

Something was screwy tonight. Left-field coaching decisions, lousy execution, one freaking penalty after another - this is like the Seinfeld where George and Elaine switch places. All of a sudden its the Pats who are flustered, unable to pull off their game plan, making the critical mistakes. The worm has apparently turned.

I can’t kill the defense for giving up 27 points to the Colts, and the brightest spot for the Pats was the play of its defensive line and linebackers, who stuffed the Colts few run attempts and put great pressure on Manning from start to finish. But for the second straight year, the Patriots secondary gave maddening 10-12 yard cushions to Indy’s receivers, even on short yardage plays. And just like last year, the Patriots gave up far too many easy completions. Even when Manning was hurried, even under wraps, he was able to loft a ball to a spot, where Harrison or Reggie Wayne or freaking Ben Utecht would be waiting, alone. Didn’t the Patriots once make their bones by hammering the Colts receivers at the line? Whatever happened to that?

Maybe it was Ron Winter, and people like him. This was by far the most delusional officiating crew the Patriots have had all season, which is saying something, because they’ve also had Jeff Triplette. TWICE. Winter and his crew couldn’t wait to make a good impression on the Competition Committee, AKA the Colts front office, so they threw the ‘illegal contact’ flag on every Manning imcomplete pass. It seemed like it, anyway. What they don’t call, apparently, is offensive holding on the Colts. Ever. Just saying.

But the referees didn’t lose this game for the Patriots tonight; their offense did. With the Jets up next Sunday, it’s suck-it-up time for the Patriots. After tonight, that divisional lead is the best thing they have going for them.

by Scott Benson

This most anticipated of Game Days has finally arrived, so let’s take a look at the morning papers.

Over at the Globe, Ron Borges says in his Football Notes column that Tony Dungy’s Cover 2 defense hasn’t worked as well in Indy as it did in Tampa, thanks to cut back power runners like Corey Dillon. Borges also has news of (gasp) an NFL coach lying to a player. A Belichick disciple, no doubt. Quite frankly!

Mike Reiss writes about the suddenly unpredictable Patriots offense, which gave defenses another element to worry about with its performance last Monday night. Mike says it’s anybody’s guess how the Pats will choose to go at the Colts tonight. Reiss also has empties his notebook with news that Corey Mays - not Patrick Pass - has been given the 53rd roster spot for the Patriots, as insurance against Don Davis’s leg injury.

I didn’t feel like reading this Auerbach/Belichick comparison from the highly creative Dan Shaughnessy, but maybe you will. I just figure I’ve read this same column a million times before. Let me guess - “Red had his checkered sport coat, Laughing Bill has his Homeless Hoodie.” I’ll pass.

Mike Felger leads the Herald’s coverage, noting the Pats balanced offense gives them options for tonight. Felger looks at Tony Dungy’s career with predictable results, but he weaves in a reminder of Bill Belichick’s recent slam at Bill Polian’s record in Buffalo. Not so coincidentally, Dungy also cites Polian’s Buffalo run, in - amusingly - a much different way.

Albert Breer reminds us we’ll be watching two of the best quarterbacks in league history tonight.

For some reason, the Herald also runs a two-day old column from Bob Kravitz of the Indy Star. Kravitz - any relation to Lenny? Gladys and Abner, maybe? - takes Brady over Manning and Belichick over Dungy. If you’re trying to get a gig in Boston, Bob, you’re going about it entirely the wrong way.

That’s it for the morning majors. For the rest, you’re on your own. Or maybe not. If you haven’t tried Bruce Allen’s latest brainchild, the Patriots News Mashup, you need to do so, now. It’s a one-stop links machine to the four corners of the Internet. You get the locals (Globe, Herald and Projo), you get the nationals (through Topix), you get the networks (ESPN, FOX), and you even get the bloggers. The little pop ups that appear when you scroll over the listings (giving you the first few lines of the story) may be the greatest thing ever invented.

You even get the latest updates to Reiss’s Pieces, and there has to be a way to bring Tom E. Curran into the BSMW Patriots mash-up fold. TEC will no doubt be blogging live from his home field tonight, along with rest of the NBC Sunday Night crew.

Cold Hard Football Facts is always a must-read before any Pats-Colts game. More ‘tastes great, less filling’ stuff on Brady and Manning (a CHFF specialty), and some foreboding news (for the Colts) on the status of their run defense, which is currently allowing its opponents 5.4 yards a carry. By the way, Kerry, next time John Gonzalez comes calling, don’t answer.

Thoughts for the day….the media was natually all over the Pats and Colts injury reports this week, as both teams listed as many players as Red’s Celtics listed championships (and then some). The Conventional Wisdom says these shenanigans most vex the gaming industry, but I would suggest only shitty gamblers have been affected. I have to think the savvy guys have adjusted to these gamesmanship theatrics by now. Even the league itself was laughing it off, but not the local media, which reacted with typical pre-fab outrage. Did Nick Cafardo really leave the Pats beat because he could not abide all the ‘lying’ that goes on in Foxboro? If true, that alone tells you all you need to know about our self-important press corps….Dan Graham is again out for the Pats, and we’ll have to keep an eye on the Colts’ Bob Sanders, who missed practice on Friday with knee problems….Troy Brown is just two catches away from setting the Patriots all-time career high, and you have to expect he’ll do that in front of the home crowd tonight. All the talk this week has been about what kind of reception Adam Vinatieri will get; the biggest ovation will probably go to Brown….prior to Monday night there were plenty of questions (legitimate and otherwise) about the Patriots passing game, but here’s a fun fact: both Ben Watson (catches) and Reche Caldwell (catches and yards) are already nearing career-best seasons at the midway point of the campaign….I cannot wait for tonight. So much to gain. With a win, the Pats - after an off-season of tempest and turmoil - would push all the way to the front of the AFC with eight weeks to play….either way, I’ll be back after the game.

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

On Football Outsiders, we have a pet thread for irrational arguments about the relative merits of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning; in our traditionally uninflammatory manner, we refer to this thread as the “Official Thread for Irrational Brady-Manning Arguments”. The thread has become so big as to bog down our server and force the appearance of a newly-minted second thread, just in time for this week’s upcoming Patriots-Colts game. Six posts into this now 405-strong thread, I joked that there should be a thread comparing Matt Cassel to Jim Corgi. While measuring their grip strength on clipboards and their ability to avoid local impersonators (ala Brian St. Pierre), I realized that it’s a little strange that two teams with such strong playoff hopes have so little in experience behind their two franchise quarterbacks. Now, I’m not saying that Sorgi and Cassel aren’t any good — obviously, their franchises have enough confidence in them to have them as the primary backups. That being said, while the cap-crunched Colts might not have the money to stick a veteran quarterback underneath the limit, the Patriots clearly do. So then, clearly, the Patriots think that having a veteran quarterback behind Brady is either unimportant, unnecessary, or both. Well, let’s use history to see if there’s any basis for such a decision.

I took a look at every quarterback since the advent of the bye week to try and find those quarterbacks who had been similar to Brady or Manning — quarterbacks who’d spent at least two years as a steady starter before being rushed off the field for a majority of a season, all while playing for the same franchise. Usually, this was due to injury, but in other cases (Jeff George in Atlanta, for example), quarterbacks were suspended or benched. From there, I tried to find quarterbacks who had backups that were similar to Cassel or Sorgi: guys who had the bare minimum of playing time, if even that much at all.

What I found was that such a thing occurring is pretty dramatically rare — there’s only six times a remotely similar switch has occurred in NFL history. The six:

Drew Bledsoe (2001 Patriots)

You may have heard of this one already.

Gus Frerotte (1998 Redskins)

Frerotte was replaced by second year QB Trent Green halfway through the first game of the 1998 season; he’d make token appearances in Weeks 5 and 6, but Green was the starter for virtually the entire season. The Redskins went from winning 8.5 games in 1997 (the tie being the infamous “Headbutt” game) to 6 in 1998 under Green, but only scoring eight fewer points.

Tommy Maddox (2004 Steelers)

Another success story. Maddox, hurt against the Ravens, came out for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers didn’t lose again until they ran into Tom Brady.

Dan Marino (1993 Dolphins)

If Brady or Manning were to get hurt, their team’s situation would be most similar to this one; a player with Hall of Fame numbers being replaced by a middle-round draft pick not expected to be a star — in this case, Scott Mitchell. While Mitchell’s Dolphins only scored nine fewer points than Marino’s, they also lost two more games than they had the year before. In addition, Scott Mitchell does not own a steakhouse inside the Hooters Casino.

Phil Simms (1982 Giants)

I’m not sure if you remember this, but before the punditry and Chris Simms even having a spleen to lose, Phil Simms used to be a pretty good quarterback. Ok, so maybe you remember that. Before that, though, you probably don’t remember that he used to be a pretty bad one. During the 1982 preseason, he tore up his knee against the Jets in much the same fashion that Jason Sehorn would sixteen years later; Simms would miss all of 1982 and most of 1983 recovering from his injury. In his stead, the Giants turned the ball over to Simms’ backup Scott Brunner, who already had 300 NFL attempts in his first two seasons; given the starting gig in the strike-shortened season and in 1983, he took a team that had been 9-7 in 1981 and saw them go 7-17-1 over the next two seasons, going from 22nd in points under Simms to 15th in 1982, but then back down to 25th in Bill Parcells’ rookie season. Simms’ return in 1984 led to three straight winning season and the Super Bowl in 1986.

Vinny Testaverde (1999 Jets)

I’ll always remember Vinny’s catastrophic knee injury. I was in the ESPN Zone in New York for its preview day, the day before it opened. “Preview day” means that the restaurant was in pre-launch mode, and while it was only serving three items, those items were all free. In addition, the games and assorted junk inside the ESPN Zone was also all free to use. This, I should warn you, is the only way you should ever experience the ESPN Zone. Comped.

If you are going to pay, though, make sure the quarterback of the local NFL team suffers a catastrophic knee injury while you’re watching on a movie theatre-sized screen. In the annals of “great sports injuries I’ve seen for the first time on a giant screen”, this is #2 behind the Mike Cameron-Carlos Beltran collision I saw on a giant sports book screen during my first trip to Vegas last year. I saw that one at 3 AM, screamed, and got a look of death from an eighty year old woman playing slots. What a wonderful place.

Oh - the Testaverde injury. Sorry. Testaverde was replaced, initially, by Rick Mirer. Mirer was acquired by the Jets from the Packers before the season started, and replaced Testaverde in the first game when he went down. By Week 6, though, the Jets were already casting glances in inexperienced Ray Lucas’ direction. Lucas was the full-time starter by Week 10, and ended up logging a majority of the snaps after Testaverde’s injury. The Jets were 6-2 in his starts, 2-5 under Mirer. It was a four-game difference from the 12 games they’d won the year before.

Are there any patterns to really draw from here? It’s hard to tell because of the small sample size. On one hand, Brady and Roethlisberger were brilliant; on the other, Mitchell, Mirer/Lucas, Green, and Brunner were all steps down from their more experienced counterparts. Again, it’s understandable that the Colts might not have a choice but to stick with Sorgi for salary reasons; the Patriots, though, have a pretty flimsy excuse. Is Pierre Woods really so valuable that he has to be on the active roster? Can Neil O’Donnell be taught to be a kick gunner? While the Patriots don’t want to worry about the answers to those questions, a Brady injury, whether at the beginning of a season or the latter part of this one, could blight their playoff hopes too dramatically for even Bill Belichick to overcome.

by Scott Benson

Short week, tall task.

Of all times to host the Indianapolis Colts - on a short week after a Monday night game.

The Patriots and Colts will meet again on Sunday night, the ninth game between the teams in the last six seasons. And though the Patriots hold a decided edge in these matchups (6-2, as you know, even though they’re currently on a one-game bender), there’s little doubt that the Patriots have always seen the Colts as their greatest challenge.

So here they are again, once more undefeated, fresh from a drubbing of the Broncos that the Pats can only fantasize about. Just the kind of team you want to have one fewer day to prepare for.

An added twist - the game comes nearly a year to the day after the Colts’ cathartic 40-21 trashing of a depleted Pats team that got better after, but never good enough to force a rematch.

So this is it, I guess.

More importantly, Sunday night’s game looms large in the playoff picture - a Pats loss to Indy, along with their earlier loss to Denver, could put them in a not-inconsiderable hole when it comes a first round bye. A Pats win, on the other hand, would put them in the conference lead at the halfway point, with a second-half schedule that includes - along with 7-0 Chicago - Detroit (1-6), Miami (1-6), Houston (2-5) and Tennessee (2-5).

After nine games, there’s really nothing new that can be said about this now-storied rivalry, but you think that’ll stop us? Don’t be ridiculous.

It’s never too late to introduce a new feature here at the Roundtable. So this week, we award our first three Roundtable game balls to the player we think earned special honors in Monday night’s dismissal of the Vikings. Panelists….your nominations?

Greg: How about Tully Banta-Cain. Two sacks and in the backfield all night. Actually a brilliant move by the coaching staff to utilize his speed against the Vikings massive, but lumbering, tackles. And he came through in spades.

Bruce: Laurence Maroney. Brady might be the obvious choice, but the rookie running back showed some chutzpah with his kick returns, especially nearly running one back in answer to the Vikings punt return for a TD.

Scott: I’m giving mine to Reche Caldwell. When I first laid eyes on him, I could not have imagined that a matter of weeks later, he would be taking short swing passes and pushing through defenders for critical first downs, much like the man who previously wore his number. He’s already better than I ever thought he’d be.

Let’s get it on the table — Pats and Colts, Sunday night. This game is too big to be left at the end of the column. Who’s left standing when it’s over?

Bruce: Well…I’m tempted to pick the Colts just to keep my streak alive. I just don’t see how the Colts are going to stop the Patriot offense, and I think that the Patriots D can hold off Peyton Manning and company at least a couple times. I think the Patriots are going to try and run the ball down the throats of the Colts, and try to keep Peyton’s crew off the field as much as possible. Of course, the Patriots could come with five wide as well. I’m saying Patriots, 28-24.

Scott: As we learned last year, brilliant game plans, ice water veins and history will only carry you so far, especially if you don’t have the horses to matchup with the Ponys. Their record since suggests that the Pats may have dealt with those deficiencies, but I suppose we won’t know for sure until game time. I’m certain of one thing - we fans had better be ready to go through a sixty-minute meat grinder on Sunday night, as these two great rivals will most certainly exchange heavy punches all night long. I expect both teams will move the ball with great skill and efficiency, and it will come down to a handful of plays, as most great games do. I’m going to bet that those plays will made by the emerging Patriots defense, and the Pats will leave the field on Sunday night as the mid-way leaders of the AFC. Pats 31-28.

Greg: 34-27 Patriots. Tough game to call. Patriots defense is playing great, but I have to admit the Colts offense is looking pretty awesome. As usual pre-January. Last year left a bad feeling in my stomach. But the Pats are clearly better on defense than last year. The Colts defense is worse. That’ll more than make up the difference and the Pats win.

Adam Vinatieri returns to New England this week for the first time since his Patriots career came to a quite-possibly bitter end. What are your thoughts as the Super Bowl hero comes home?

Scott: I think I’m tired of it already. His kicks in the Snow Bowl and then Super Bowl 36 are not only the greatest Patriots moments, but they’re among the entire league’s greatest moments. But news flash….sometimes players change teams. It’s the 21st Century, after all. I’d be surprised if most people aren’t at least partially at ease with it. Naturally, the media steps in to ruin everything. Their contrived, trumped-up hysteria - like Wednesday’s ridiculous Belichick press conference - doesn’t add anything to this story; it only takes away. It just leaves everybody pissed off (how could you not be, when one mediot after another gleefully hopes for a home team loss by a field goal?) and choosing up sides. Bloodsuckers. I’ll be glad when newspapers finally die and we can watch the f**king game in peace.

Greg: I don’t have any. I just want to watch the game. He’s gone, I appreciate what he did. But I don’t have any thoughts on his return.

Bruce: Loved the guy while he was here. He’s not here anymore. He comes on the field to kick, I hope he misses. Couldn’t be any simpler.

The Colts had an off-season not too dissimilar to the Patriots’ - most notably the departure of all-pro runner Edgerrin James, who was thought to be a major part of Indy’s league-leading offense. Are the Colts as good without James as they were with him?

Greg: No, they’re not. Still good and Joseph Addai is playing well. But he still isn’t as good as James was in the Colts offense (and interestingly, James isn’t as good as he was in the Colts offense either).

Bruce: It’s curious that the personnel losses that the Colts suffered this offseason weren’t talked about nearly as much as the Patriots’ losses. James was a huge part of the team, but the offense does seem to be doing just fine without him. I would say they’re a notch below in the running game, but Reggie Wayne has stepped and shown why the Colts paid him like a number one receiver. I think the offense is as good as it ever has been.

Scott: I never liked the guy anyway, so I’ll say ‘as good’. By the time he got to Phoenix, wasn’t he already acting like the self-centered dink he’d always been in Indy? Skipping mini-camps and bitching about his contract, his carries, or whatever? You can have his 1,500 yards - he’s just another sap(p) from ‘The U’. Besides, I’m convinced that no matter who comes and goes in that offense, the quarterback will make it happen anyway. Just like with the Patriots, there had to be an adjustment period after the loss of a central cog, which may have accounted for some of their early struggles. As far as I’m concerned, that Indy offense I watched last Sunday was as good as it’s ever been.

Crazy Bill Polian will be in town this weekend. Is he more likely to: a) complain to the league about the condition of the Patriots field; b) complain to the league about the Patriots game tactics; c) complain to the league about the Patriots injury list tactics; d) complain to Ron Borges about Bill Belichick’s arrogance; e) attack a Patriots employee in a blind rage; f) drink so heavily that he stumbles around the press box making an ass of himself until he passes out in a pool of his own bile, or; g) do all of the above?

Bruce: The obvious answer is g. Of course I think there’s a “h” as well…Polian is likely to make excuses for the Colts getting carved up by the Broncos running game by stating that the stats are misleading because they really stopped the Bronco’s number one back and all the rushing yards were piled up by the backup, which doesn’t count. What? He’s already said that? My bad.

Scott: Oh, its all the above. And that’s just before halftime. Later, after he gets fully juiced, he may kill a parking lot attendant. The NFL will place the matter under review, and may even require Polian to apologize to a representative of the family of his victim.

Greg: Punch me in for G as well. He really is a nut case, huh? And his reputation is overblown. His veterans-only approach to expansion proved stupid in Carolina and only gave them one good year. And his offense-centric approach, to the detriment of defense, has killed his teams every year in Indianapolis come playoff time. Can you say overrated?

We’ve got a half-season of proselytizing and prognostocating under our belt. Pick Your Most Embarrasing Moment.

Scott: The aforementioned Caldwell. I pretty much buried him after an underwhelming pre-season, claiming “it’s hard to imagine that the player we’ve been watching will become much more than an inconsistent second-team receiver, doing very little to mitigate the absence of the former starters”. Well, simply not true. He may never ‘replace’ Givens and Branch, but if his recent play is any indication, he could nonetheless become an important part of this team before it’s over. It’s stupid to define these guys before they’ve had the chance to do it themselves.

Greg: Have you seen my predictions record? ‘Nuff said.

Bruce: Buying into the Dolphin hype and proclaming that Miami would be “right there” with the Patriot in terms of the W-L record to this point. By “right there” I obviously meant that they would have the inverse record of the Patriots.

Let’s head back to the Obscenely Huge Board of Predictions, where Bruce Allen is still Pickin’ and Grinnin’ to lead all contenders by more games than I’d like to admit. All right Tall Man, try your hand at these: Tennessee (2-5) at Jacksonville (4-3), Cleveland (2-5) at San Diego (5-2), Kansas City (4-3) at St. Louis (4-3), Denver (5-2) at Pittsburgh (2-5), and Cincinnati (4-3) at Baltimore (5-2).

Bruce (4-2 last week, 33-14 overall): Jacksonville, San Diego, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Greg (2-4 last week, 23-24 overall): Jacksonville, better than Tennessee and at home. I like the way David Garrard manages a game, though they may go back to Leftwich. San Diego easily is better than Cleveland. KC trips up St. Louis and Pittsburgh rebounds at home to hand Denver their third loss. Baltimore takes out Cincinnati to claim a commanding lead in the AFC North.

Scott (2-4 last week, 27-20 overall): I’ve decided that I am going to start playing for the draft pick, and as my first order of business, I’d like to announce the hiring of ML Carr as Interim Head Coach. ML has informed me that he would like to pick Jacksonville at home over the Titans, San Diego at home over Romeo and the Browns, St Louis at home over the Chiefs, Denver on the road over the Steelers, and the Ravens beat the Bengals in Baltimore.

I hate to spoil a good time, but it’s a requirement: please tell the court of the atrocities committed by your Mediot of the Week.

Greg: I heard Mike Adams make a pathetic attempt to talk Patriots and football Tuesday night while driving in my car. He is clearly way over his head on that topic. At one point he ripped into Minnesota, somewhat dismissing the Patriots dismantling of them, as a horrible team. Among his claims “They almost lost to Buffalo for crying out loud!!!!” Yeah Mike, if you consider that 17-12 score they came up on the short end of against Buffalo as “almost” losing.

Scott: They all ought to get a Silkwood shower for their misbehavior this week. Or maybe it’s us that needs the shower. Their intent couldn’t have been any more transparent. When they told us months ago to mark this date on our calendars, they weren’t talking about a game between two great teams; the preening sociopaths were licking their chops at the scent of fresh red meat. Hey boys, if this is the stuff that sells papers, why are all of your employers going in the tank?

Bruce: Well, certain members of the esteemed press corps seemed to sink to new lows this week when attempting to grill Bill Belichick about Adam Vinatieri. What’s the guy supposed to say? They ask incredibly dumb questions and then have the temerity to say “you seem mad…what did we do” to him. Then they scuffle over the AV conference call and say stuff along the lines of “We know you’re only going to say nice things, BUT weren’t you really mad that the Patriots only paid you 20% higher than the next highest paid kicker in the NFL your last two years here?” I was waiting for the “Did you ever see Belichick kick puppies while you were here?” line of questioning next.