Game Day Rear View - Pats Freeze Green Bay’s Tundra, 35-0

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

Alan Greenberg was right!

Matt Cassel DID play quarterback against the Packers today.

Thankfully, Cassel was not in there to relieve an ailing Tom Brady, as Greenberg fretted might happen this week. Rather, Cassel played only to mop up what was left of the Green Bay Packers after Brady and the Patriots suddenly got very healthy by creaming the Pack 35-0 this afternoon at Lambeau Field.

Brady threw for four touchdown passes and cooly directed a balanced offense that moved efficiently from the opening gun, while his defensive teammates put Brett Favre out of the game after thoroughly squashing Green Bay in the air and on the ground. The Packers were held to just over 110 yards of total offense, while the Patriots offense rolled up 350 yards and five scores.

New England was never in one second’s danger of losing this game today.

The Patriots should immediately petition to be transferred to the NFC North. In eight quarters this season, they’ve have overwhelmed half of that division (the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings) by a combined score of 66-7.

The division’s other half, Chicago and Detroit, travel to Foxboro (and its new Field Turf surface) over the next two weekends.

They may have arrived just in the nick of time, as there’s something about the NFC North that makes the Patriots look like Super Bowl champions. Today, New England was in complete control from the opening kickoff.

After the defense began by sweeping Farve and the Packers away with a quick three-and-out, Brady and the offense took over with a 7 play, 63 yard scoring drive that gave them an early lead they would never reliquish.

They key play was a deep center toss to an in-stride Ben Watson, who took it 36 yards to the Green Bay 11. The Packers held, forcing the Pats to a 4th and goal from the 2. Again Bill Belichick eschewed the field goal, and Brady held the line with a sharp play action fake before hitting an open Daniel Graham for the scoring pass.

The defense, even without three-quarters of its secondary, continued to make quick work of the Packers. The biggest test came when Brady and Corey Dillon muffed an exchange, and the Packers recovered at the New England 30. Favre could neither find open running lanes or open receivers, and with another three-and-out, the Pats forced at 44 yard Dave Raymer field goal attempt. He badly missed it to the right, and Green Bay was left with nothing.

Suitably de-hooked, the Patriots offense marched again. This time, they took to the ground behind Laurence Maroney, as Dillon cooled his heels on the Pats bench. The rookie carried 4 times for 14 yards on the drive, supported by Kevin Faulk, Heath Evans (a key fourth down conversion) and finally, by Dillon, who carried the ball for the final yard and the Patriots second touchdown.

The balanced attack gave Brady more time to pass, and even his incompletions racked up yards. His goal line miss of Daniel Graham resulted in a 22 yard pass interference penalty, which set up Dillon’s plunge.

Aside from the handoff miscue with Dillon, everything went Tom’s way today. After the penalty, Brady missed a wide open Mike Vrabel at the back of the end zone. Vrabel leapt and came down with the ball on a close play, but was ruled out (a replay showed he may have made the catch). But the missed opportunity was quickly assauged by Dillon’s scoring run.

Even with the two touchdown lead, the Patriots defense persisted. The Packers continued to try the run, but were met every time by the Patriots defensive interior, led by Vince Wilfork. Wilfork talked this week about playing more physical football, and he was at his penetrating best today. Green Bay could muster but 43 rushing yards against Wilfork and the others.

The Packers passing was no better. Favre was under no great pressure at first, but he could find no one to throw to. Even without Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson and Asante Samuel, the Patriots secondary choked off the underneath throws while sealing off the big play downfield.

Some, or all, of it must have come from design, or maybe it was just luck. At times, Favre had an open receiver, but he was so generally flummoxed by the options downfield that he misfired wildly despite being presented with a free battery mate.

He was eventually driven from the game entirely. After Brady had stretched the Patriots lead to 21 (another effective play action that produced the season’s longest pass play, a 54 yard beauty to a wide-open Reche Caldwell), Favre took the ball with two minutes left in the half. He finally exploited the Patriots ailing secondary, going over Troy Brown (again pressed into nickel coverage) to hit Donald Driver down the right side for 38 yards and a first down at the Patriots 40. The Packers would try to make a game of it before the half.

On the next play, Tully Banta Cain rushed from Favre’s left, eventually landing at his feet. Banta Cain hung on for dear life, and as Favre sagged to the ground, he got a face full of a fully launched Tedy Bruschi. The hit drove Favre’s shoulder into the chilled turf, and he left for the day with a numb right arm and some simply awful passing numbers (5 for 15 for 73 yards).

Aaron Rodgers took over for Favre, missed his first two passes, and basically maintained that level for the rest of the day.

The Patriots added a third quarter touchdown by Ben Watson (the end product of a 6 play, 60 yard drive), who made a nice vertical catch of a Brady throw into tight end zone coverage. Watson, who critics called ‘invisible’ for his recent play, was the leading receiver (5 catches, 74 yards) in Brady’s solid 21-30, 244 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT passing attack.

Maroney, who led the Pats on the ground with a steady 19 carry, 82 yard day, scored the Pats final TD when he took a fourth quarter swing pass to Brady’s left and deked Nick Barnett into next week before racing untouched 19 yards down the sideline into the end zone. The score was set up by a Kevin Faulk 36 yard punt return that gave the Pats a first down at the Green Bay 23.

The Patriots faced one more Packer challenge, after a late punt gave Green Bay the ball at midfield. But Mike Vrabel raced from Rodgers’s right to strip the ball, and Mike Wright fell on the fumble to close out the Packers’ final possession.

Vinny Testaverde, signed on Tuesday to serve as an emergency quarterback, took his first snaps as a Patriot while taking the knee and running out the clock.

The Patriots offensive line closed the leaks in their pass protection, giving Brady all kinds of room and all kinds of time. Of course, this usually gets easier to do when you have some semblance of balance in your offense, as the Patriots finally did today. They ran the ball 40 times and tried to throw only 33. What was most encouraging was that the Patriots stayed patient and in a deliberate, huddle offense, leaving aside the frenetic no-huddle fastbreak.

You can’t argue with the results. The Patriots piled up 22 first downs to Green Bay’s 5, and held the time of possession by a two-to-one advantage.

Troy Brown had another unsung Sunday in a career built from them, making first downs on offense and taking them away on defense. Other highlights included Caldwell’s picturebook touchdown (he’s now set or tied career highs in catches, yards and TD’s, with 6 games to play), Vrabel’s 6 tackle, 1.5 sack day, Ty Warren’s return (and 1.5 sacks), and New England kick coverage teams that were all over the Green Bay returners.

Josh Miller sounded the only down note with another poor punting display. He’s off his stride.

It’s hard to tell just much the Pats gained today, as 4-6 Green Bay struggled badly in every facet of the game. But maybe the Patriots really are that much better than the teams they have in the NFC North.

With the 9-1 Chicago Bears up next, let’s hope so.

Game Day Blog - The Sunday Papers

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

If you’re anything like me, you’re not sure if you’re looking forward to this afternoon’s Pats-Packers tilt or not. After all, the Patriots are in their worst dip in a year, with two discouraging performances in a row, and the thought of another Sunday like the previous two make me a little gun shy. What the hell - let’s open the papers anyway.

At Dan Shaughnessey’s Daddy Globe, our friend Mike Reiss carries the ball again, and this morning’s big story is that Asante Samuel will join Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison on the Patriots sidelines today, leaving the team without 75% of its starting secondary. Mike’s word is that James Sanders will replace Chad Scott at Harrison’s safety spot while Scott replaces Samuel at corner. It’s nice to have Chad back on the edge, where he’s played well, but I would have preferred it happen under better circumstances, obviously.

Reiss continues with a few thoughts from Vince Wilfork, who calls for the Patriots to return to physical, throwback football at historic Lambeau Field. Have at it, Vince. The big tackle tells Reiss that the Pats “can’t wait to get out there” after the last two weeks.

Mike also relieves Ron Borges on the weekly Football Notes, where he talks with San Diego GM AJ Smith about the construction of the Chargers as they prepare to face the Broncos in Denver tonight. Anybody calling Phillip Rivers a stiff lately, by the way? Reiss also connects with the world’s clutchest field goal holder, Ken Walter, who hopes for a comeback after being out of football for awhile. Ken has some poignant thoughts about the Foxboro fandom.

Jim McCabe writes beautifully of Titletown’s local flavor, and Jim McBride has his weekly scouting report.

At the Herald, Michael Felger is - like Frank Constanza - prolific. I’ll give Mike credit here - for a ubiquitous multi-mediot, he sure does a lot of heavy lifting on Sundays. As usual, he’s responsible for most of the Herald’s content today.

He probably could have saved himself the trouble with his lead article, where he grabs on to some innocuous Tom Brady comments to slug away at Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre. That’s so 2005, Michael. I suppose as part owner of the Packers, Felger can’t help himself. He must be popular with other Packer fans, who have of course deified the former pill popper.

Felger then runs the Herald’s Chad Jackson flag up the pole again, though I suppose this week it makes sense, as it was the Packers who traded the pick that the Pats used on the rookie. Naturally, the Packers selected a wide receiver with the pick they received in return (Greg Jennings), and wouldn’t you know it, he’s had a better rookie year than the Patriots Playstation champion (hopefully, Chad took his playbook with him when he was on line for the PS-III this week). I hate it when things are so easy for the media. Mike also has some thoughts about a couple of potential free agent Chicago Bears corners.

In a collection of random thoughts, Felger ruminates on the move from grass to Field Turf, and adds a sidebar warning the Patriots secondary to prepare for the slant, a staple of the Packers passing game. Hey, NEM, there’s your offense right there.

John Tomase has the Herald notebook, which includes a look at the Pats secondary woes and a few thoughts from Jabar Gaffney - like who seems damn glad to be here.

Want more? You do the clicking then, you lazy bastards - just hit the BSMW Patriots News Mashup page.

Elsewhere, the Cold Hard Football Facts has its own unique spin on (their words) the Stats That Matter, with its Quality Standings page. I just recently picked up on their offensive and defensive line rankings. They’re based on yards per carry, negative pass plays and time of possession averages, which makes sense to me. The Pats come up well on both fronts, ranking 5th on offense and 7th on defense, despite middling TOP averages on both sides of the ball.

Run the ball, Josh!

It’s only fair that I mention that Bill Barnwell’s outfit, Football Outsiders, has its own method for measuring line play, its richly detailed Adjusted Line Yards. This one’s cool because it tells you how often (and how successfully) a team runs in a given direction. I admit it - I don’t exactly have the intellectual horsepower to keep up with these guys, but if you’re a Bill James kind of guy, FO has to be your top bookmark.

Speaking of Barnwell, did you catch his GDRV bit on expatriate ex-Patriots yesterday? Bill’s been a great pickup for us. When Bruce and I started GDRV a few years ago, I never thought we’d have guys like Barnwell and Greg Doyle contributing the kind of quality stuff they do every week. Those guys, along with the Tall Man himself, bring our readers some much needed relief from my crude, guttural wails.

It’s been a fun season already, and I hope we’ll all have many more. Next week, our Roundtable feature will even drag in a buddy from the dark, sinister world of the BSMW message board, the well-traveled ‘Box Score’. There is absolutely going to be a hospitality question in there somewhere, I assure you of that.

Why does anybody care what an NFL coach wears on the sideline? This week, 49′ers coach Mike Nolan got the OK to wear a suit for the Niners game with Seattle (as an homage to his dad Dick, who sartorially coached San Fransisco in the Sixties), and Jack Del Rio quickly followed suit (heh, heh) for the Jags MNF game with the Giants. Permission was needed, of course, because of the league’s apparel deal with Reebok, who - and I thought this was a joke at first - will now fashion the dress up duds for Nolan and Del Rio.

That’s all fine, but naturally, the enterprising local media quickly (and predictably, and annoyingly) makes the story about Bill Belichick, known far and wide as the Worst Dressed Man in the World. If you believe these guys, anyway. John Tomase launched this beauty on Friday, in reference to the Dreaded Hoodie:

Could the days of Bill Belichick dressing out of the nearest trash can be coming to an end?

Dressing out of a freaking trash can? That might be overstating it a bit there, John, and never mind the mess you’re making out of your glass house. It’s a sweatshirt. A football garment being worn at a football game. Imagine that. These guys can gin up a fit over just about anything. It’s funny, because now that they show up on my TV at all hours, uninvited, I can see they’re not exactly runway models either. So what’s the beef? It’s just another easy angle to bust the coach’s nuts some more for not playing ball with them, and I’m always surprised and disappointed at how many fans lap it up.

I’ll tell you why this bothers me so much - earlier this week, when the Pats signed Vinny Testaverde, that goof Alan Greenberg wrote one of his typical knee-jerk, half-cocked columns shrieking that the marginal acquisition proved that Tom Brady was mortally wounded. I mean, get a load of this junk:

Is Tom Brady injured? Is Brady, who has not missed a start since taking over for the injured Drew Bledsoe in the third game of the 2001 season, sufficiently banged up after last Sunday’s loss to the Jets that he’s on the verge of giving way to backup Matt Cassel for Sunday’s game at Green Bay against the Packers? If he isn’t, why did the Patriots announce the signing of Vinny Testaverde Tuesday?

Matt Cassel? Huh? Whaaaa?

Anyway, why it bothers me is that a couple of days later I’m cruising si.com, and I stumble into one of their unctuous ‘rumor’ pages, and there it is, big as life, right up top: ‘Brady hurt’. Source material? Mr. Greenberg. So now people all over the counry are looking at this and seeing it as an actual representation of reality, which as we know, is not a place Alan frequently visits, at least where the Patriots are concerned.

That just bothers me for some reason.

Back to the field for a second, you know where to go to find the latest game day news - the indispensible Reiss’s Pieces. Click later to confirm whether the Pats will indeed have a returning Ty Warren and Stephen Neal when they take the field this afternoon.

Naturally, unless I pass out on the couch in a deep funk, I’ll be back after the game.

Checking in with the Ex-Patriots

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

Expatriots

When the Invisible Turf Monster caused David Givens and his ACL to part ways last week, I was shocked to even discover that David Givens still existed; while Tennessee appears to be a black hole for all success and notoriety right now (unless you are practicing for your mixed martial arts debut on unsuspecting opposing players), I still would’ve periodically expected to read something about a player who received a $24 million contract this offseason and was seen as a legitimate loss to the Patriots’ offense. I started to think about the other ex-Patriots who’d lost their way: Damian Woody getting benched for being unable to control his weight in Detroit, Lawyer Milloy going from being a reason to hate your coach to becoming a league vagabond, or Ty Law’s year barely holding his head above water on a Jets team trying to drag him to the bottom. While Law did have 10 interceptions last season, there were other metrics compiled by Football Outsiders that showed his slippage from the league’s best. He stopped 41% of the passes thrown in his direction, a number that ranked 80th amongst starting defensive backs in the league; he allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt in his direction, which ranked 33rd. What I thought would be interesting to do for this week’s column would be to take a look at the ex-Patriots and see how they’re faring this year on foreign soil, using some of the advanced metrics at our disposal at Football Outsiders. I’ll explain each of them as they come up.

Joe Andruzzi (CLE)
Andruzzi’s currently playing left guard for the Browns, who currently have the worst offensive line in all of professional football according to FO’s Adjusted Line Yards. This stat measures the effectiveness of an offensive line in opening holes for a running back versus the effectiveness of a running back in simply being fantastic; as a result, offensive linemen are given less credit for plays where the result is a 30-yard-run and they’ve stopped blocking after six yards than on a play where the run goes for five and they’ve done all the lifting. The results are then compared to the average result against that down, distance, situation, and opponent, and then normalized so that the average team gains the average amount of yards (4.08) that an NFL team does on every play. The Browns, as I mentioned, sit dead last with 3.48 yards per rushing play. The weakness of the line? Left tackle Kevin Shaffer, who may legitimately be a worse run blocker than Richard Seymour. While Seymour is pouting. Shaffer’s .90 adjusted line yards behind him at left end are a ghastly figure, the lowest seen in some time. Furthermore, the Browns are last in the league at runs in the middle of the line, which could be expected due to the problems they’ve had in keeping a center healthy. Behind left tackle, the Browns are 20th in the league — so Andruzzi isn’t necessarily the weak link of the line, certainly, but he doesn’t appear to be great shakes, either.

Tom Ashworth (SEA)
Ashworth has been filling in at right tackle for Sean Locklear, who has been troubled by ankle injuries and the urge to beat up his girlfriend in public so far this season. In that sense, Ashworth is a huge upgrade on Sean Locklear as a human. On the football field? Ashworth’s been a bit of a mess. While Seneca Wallace has taken the blame for Leonard Little’s sack and forced fumble that was returned for a touchdown against the Rams last week, some of the blame has to realistically be placed on the guy Little blew right by, Ashworth. Furthermore, the Seattle offensive line play has gone down dramatically with the loss of Locklear and Steve Hutchinson’s poison pill move to Minnesota; the Seahawks, according to our adjusted sack rate statistic, rank 29th out of 32 teams in pass protection so far this year. Adjusted Sack Rate, much like Adjusted Line Yards, considers the context of opposition, down, distance, and situation so that the protection of teams who drop back 45 times a game (why hello Joseph Harrington!) can be compared to those teams that run the ball 40 times (and you’re doing well, every Jets opponent!) Furthermore, while the Seahawks rush offense ranks tenth in runs at right tackle, they are 24th in runs at right end, plays where Ashworth would be needed to block his end straight up while a guard pulls behind him, or alternately where he might be needed to get to the second-level and clear out a linebacker to make a two- or three-yard gain a seven- or eight-yard one.

Deion Branch (SEA)
Is Deion Branch’s season this year a wash? Are the Seahawks paying him like it is, or expecting it to be a wash for him? It’s hard to say. So far, Branch hasn’t been particularly impressive even whilst learning the offense in Seattle. Looking at the DVOA statistic that measures how Branch does versus an average wide receiver in the same situation, Branch’s -1.1% performance puts him 47th in the league for all wide receivers; it’ll be interesting to see whether that goes up in the second half and Branch returns to being a favorite of the statistic.

Matt Chatham (NYJ)
Establishing a hierarchy of emphaticity for “whoo’s”. Good for Matt. Still a solid special teams player, but the Jets run defense is the worst that the NFL has seen in six years. Not really Chatham’s fault, though.

Christian Fauria (WAS)
Fauria has struggled with an ankle injury in recent weeks and is yet to catch a pass this season in the Redskins offense, which I believe is some sort of mistaken performance art project using the screen pass and Santana Moss as a Christ-like figure.

David Givens (TEN)
See beginning. Givens caught eight passes in five games.

Brandon Gorin (ARI)
Gorin, traded in the offseason for a conditional pick, suited up for the first time last week against the Cowboys in a reserve role. He’s buried on what’s probably the most famously bad offensive line, after the Bears-Cardinals game, in years. On the bright side, he knows who the Bears are; on the brightest side, that joke is officially dead.

Damon Huard (KC)
Hey, finally some nice things to say! Huard was the sixth best quarterback in the league this season according to our DPAR statistic, and that’s even without playing in the first couple of games; his DVOA, which only counts the plays he was involved in, has him fifth. DPAR, by the way, measures the total number of points scored due to plays that the quarterback threw or ran with the ball versus that of a freely-available “replacement level” quarterback (insert your favorite ex-Steve Spurrier QB here). I say “was” instead of “is” because Huard is about to lose his job back to Trent Green, but he’s basically set himself up to be a highly-regarded backup quarterback for as long as he wants to be, and judging from his performance, a starting quarterback in those areas where God has scorched the earth. You know, like Oakland. Oh, and wherever Joey Harrington goes.

Bethel Johnson (MIN)
Last year, Minnesota ranked 12th in kick returns according to our adjusted kick return statistics, which account for location and measures kickoffs versus the average return. This year, employing Johnson as their primary kick returner, they’re tied for ninth. He doesn’t contribute anything to the passing game, but as a kick returner, Johnson’s fine.

Dan Klecko (IND)
Slightly less noticeably booed than Adam Vinatieri upon his return to New England, Klecko has played in six games and made two tackles. Much like I said about Matt Chatham earlier, Klecko’s an uninvolved part of one of the worst rush defenses in all of football.

Adrian Klemm (n/a)
The resurgence of the Packers’ offensive line (eight in the league in Adjusted Line Yards, and second in Adjusted Sack Rate) has gone on without Klemm, who was cut by the Packers before the season started. He hasn’t caught on anywhere, and he may have played his last NFL game.

Ty Law (KC)
As I mentioned earlier, while Law had a gaudy interception total last season, that may have had something to do with the fact that teams weren’t particularly concerned about throwing in his direction. This year, though, Law is doing much better. Football Outsiders tracks how teams do whilst defending the opposition’s #1 WR, #2 WR, other WR’s, tight ends, and running backs, relative again to situation and context. This season, the Chiefs are first in defending against #1 WR’s and 10th against #2 WR’s. I haven’t seen enough of the Chiefs this season to say whether Law is matching up against the opposition’s #1 receiver often or not, but either way, he and Patrick Surtain are clearly both having very effective seasons.

Willie McGinest (CLE)
Even though he hasn’t been playing with them this season, McGinest joined the rest of the Patriots linebackers in taking a comfortably large step back this season. While he won’t be appearing on the side of a milk carton like Mike Vrabel shortly will be, McGinest has struggled with injury this season and has only 16 tackles and 2 sacks in 7 games. On the other hand, McGinest can still serve as an assistant coach for Romeo Crennel whilst hurt, so there’s some added benefit there.

David Patten (WAS)
Patten went from being a nifty deep threat with the Patriots to being the worst regular wide receiver in all of football in 2005, according to both DPAR and DVOA. This year, Patten’s played in four games and caught one pass for 25 yards. His lack of proclivity is disappointing for someone with his surname.

Tyrone Poole (OAK)
I had no idea Poole was still in the league. None. Poole’s been a backup cornerback for the Raiders; while the Raiders’ defense has been solid this season, they’re 22nd in defending passes against the opposition’s #3, #4, and #5 wide receivers. He hasn’t hurt himself yet, though, which at least saves on physio costs.

Antowain Smith (n/a)
Smith was cut by the Texans at the beginning of the season and hasn’t caught on anywhere. He hasn’t officially retired, but when all Google News turns up for you are items from press releases about how you’re being passed for team records, you’re done.

Adam Vinatieri (IND)
Accounting for the effects of playing in a dome half the time and the distance of his kicks, Adam Vinatieri’s been the 12th best kicker in football this season on field goals. Of course, the one game-winning kick he had to make, he did so without fail, leading to Bill Simmons’ peak in the 2006 season. On kickoffs, though, Vinatieri was expected to be an improvement on the weak-legged Mike Vanderjagt; instead, though, the Colts have had the worst performance on kickoffs in all of football; the team has lost 8.9 points worth of field position since the beginning of the season. The Patriots, meanwhile, have gained two points of field position; that’s an eleven-point swing, and something to think about when analyzing the Gostkowski-Vinatieri tradeoff that not many people do.

Ken Walter (n/a)
Genesee County, Ohio Bowling Results, courtesy The Flint Journal:

Whitey Craine Memorial - Bryan Reagan 299-775, Bob Wirsing 298, Jesse Koch 289, Spider Edwards 771, Justin Crosby 279-752, Ken Walter 278-739, Larry Hubbard 704, Tim Bailey 279, John Ross Jr. 277, Tracy La Rose 288.

Ted Washington (CLE)
Is still enormous. Plays nose tackle for the Browns, who are 24th in the league in rush defense DVOA. Will remain enormous for foreseeable future, die, disintegrate into large pile of ash. So, he’s pretty much remained the same.

Damien Woody (DET)
Sprained his foot in Week 5 and was placed on IR. The Lions were 0-5 at that point. Woody has as many catches as Mike Williams, though, so presumably Matt Millen is pleased with his performance. In slightly worse news for Woody, the AOL Sports Blog noted last month that he’s being sued for $250,000 by a woman who claims Woody promised her financial security, marriage, and her own business to break an engagement to another man. The high point of the lawsuit, though, was the woman’s insistence that she’d agreed to have extensive dental and cosmetic surgery at Woody’s request. At that point, though, Woody was probably just trying to see what he could get away with, right?

Fred McCrary (ATL)
McCrary is the reserve fullback for the for the Falcons, who have the sixth best rushing offense in all of football. This is the antithesis of the Klecko and Chatham notes, except their almost perfectly-equal irrelevance to their teams’ success or failure.

GDRV Roundtable

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

This week, the Patriots travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay for a intra-conference matchup with Brett Favre and the Packers.

A win is imperative.

New England badly needs one after a horrendous two-week slump that has seen the Pats fall back to the pack in not only their conference but in their own division as well.

With the 2006 season nearing the homestretch, the Patriots trail the AFC-leading Colts by three games (four when you count the head-to-head Colts advantage) and Denver by one (again, due to their head-to-head advantage over the Pats, its actually two) for first-round playoff byes. Suddenly, two more teams have become a factor at 7-2: the Baltimore Ravens (with a better conference record, the next tiebreaker) and the San Diego Chargers (also a better conference record) both stand between New England and a first round pass.

Even their previously-thought-to-be-unimpeachable division lead is down to one game, with the Jets now at 5-4 (and a 3-1 division record, just behind the Pats’ 4-1). If they can’t reverse their slide soon, the Pats and their fans will spend December lowering their expectations while scoreboard-watching for results from places like Jacksonville and Kansas City.

The 4-5 Packers have seemingly improved under new head coach Mike McCarthy, winning three out of their last four, including last week’s road win over the Vikings. With (evidently) his enabler Mike Sherman out of the way, Favre has surprisingly become an effective quarterback again (13 td’s to only 7 int’s), though Green Bay ranks only 16th in scoring offense. The Packers defense continues to be among the league’s worst (27th in the NFL in points allowed), which has to be welcome news for the badly-slumping Tom Brady.

Thankfully, the game will be played on the road, where the Pats are undefeated at 4-0. Just as well. Lately, the Patriots win in Foxboro about as often as they win in Denver.

There, amidst the rubble of the last two weeks, resolutely stands the Row of Chairs. What’s up, panel?

Last Sunday, a few veteran Patriots made on-the-record postgame comments that suggested the team had not only been outplayed, but outcoached. Last week, players seemed to publicly question the offensive playcalling. Never mind whether the public criticisms were appropriate (they weren’t); do they have a point?

Greg: Patriots players tend to mimic the language and phrases Belichick uses, I have noticed. And he always includes coaching as something that needs to be better or they were outperformed in when they lose. I believe they were just once again describing it as Belichick would and often does.

Bruce: Well, Belichick said the same thing, and I think he meant it. As for the comments, I don’t think they bothered the coach too much…I think he’s more concerned about the fact that they WERE outplayed and outcoached than he is about Seymour or anyone else stating it.

Scott: Yeah, they did. Bottom line - it’s November, and the team is scraping bottom. The convenient thing is to blame people like Ben Watson and Ellis Hobbs. The buck doesn’t stop there. The offense is flagging (in many respects because of its approach), and the defense (though pretty steady) still suffers some maddening third-down breakdowns. Things are getting worse just as they’re supposed to be getting better. He’s a great coach having a not-so-great season. That said, I was really happy to hear that BB had the team in pads all week, indicating a return to basics.

The Patriots have gone in the tank since we instituted the Roundtable Game Balls. That’s their problem, I guess. You guys care to hand any out this week?

Bruce: I think a lot of people are starting to realize that Reche Caldwell isn’t as bad as they thought he was. The guy has been solid. He’s been getting each week and had his best game of the season against the Jets. The knock against Caldwell was supposedly that he was soft (leading some to call him “paper” Reche), but I’ve seen a receiver who can make the big third down catches and the play that he scored the TD on against the Jets required more than a little heart and determination to the make the play. He’s my pick.

Scott: I’m giving mine to Billy Yates. It was out of necessity, but he came off the practice squad and stepped right into the starting lineup, where he handled himself like a pro. Then he breaks his friggin’ leg. I hate football sometimes.

Greg: Has to be Reche Caldwell, who easily had the most inspired game out of any Patriots player last week. He has turned out to be a lot better signing than the panic mongers like Michael Felger were claiming in pre-season.

Just three weeks after his brilliant display in Minnesota, Tom Brady is struggling. Most of it has been attributed to other areas (new receivers, an injured offensive line, a slumping running game). Is it that simple?

Scott: No, it isn’t. It’s funny we’re discussing this just as the Pats head to Green Bay, where they can always find someone other than the quarterback to blame. We don’t want that, do we? I didn’t think so. I know a lot has been placed on Tom’s shoulders, this season more than any other, but I’m worried about his fundamentals (a few of us noticed last week that he’s gone from Meryl Streep to Sharon Gless as far as selling his play action fakes, and of course, his failing accuracy could be traced to his throwing fundamentals) and frankly, his perspective (for the first time in his career, he’s throwing up patently stupid prayers instead of thinking better of it). Whether its frustration or confusion, he’s not exactly playing smart football, at a time of year when you expect nothing less from him. Like Charlie Pierce said during his visit to BSMW this week - at some point the ‘new receiver’ excuse doesn’t cut it anymore. As far as the injury theory - isn’t most everyone beat up by now? We’d have to be crazy to think that isn’t an intrinsic condition of being a pro quarterback playing in November. Unless somebody can cite something specific, that seems like just more lazy thinking, the kind that enabled Brett Favre to play some goddam lousy football without ever answering for it.

Greg: Honestly, I’m at a loss. It certainly is at least part of those reasons. But is that it? I can’t say. I know not the most insightful answer in the world, but I really can’t explain why Tom Brady is having his worst season since he became a starter. I wish I had the answer or knew he’d turn it around, but I’m not sure any longer. He was not good the last two weeks and there have been too many of those weeks.

Bruce: Yes. It’s not like he suddenly lost the ability to play quarterback. The only other option is that he’s hurting, which might lead us into the next question.

On Tuesday, the Patriots signed 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde. Why?

Greg: I am thinking as a de facto quarterback coach. He’s a veteran. He’s played in this offense. He can give tips to Tom Brady. He may eventually want to get into coaching. And, in a pinch, he can manage a game and get them through a crisis.

Bruce: Isn’t it obvious? The last time Bill Belichick brought Testaverde to a team he was the head coach of, he replaced the longtime starting QB of his squad, who was a local favorite, with ol’ Vin. History repeats itself folks, the writing is on the the wall. Brady is DUN. Actually, he’s just here as an insurance policy and I hope he never sees the field.

Scott: Guy is an incredible dresser. I mean really sharp. The best suits. Most of the Patriots now are slobs, running around in those matching track outfits. I heard that’s why they signed him - they were worried they were going to get caught short by Mr. Blackwell. They were just trying to class the joint up a little. Seriously, what I said about Brady’s perspective before? I think that’s where Vinny comes in. Think of him as a consultant, giving the situation a fresh pair of eyes. By the way - I’ve always liked this guy, and I’m glad he’s here.

Unfortunately, on Tuesday the Patriots didn’t stop at signing Vinny. They also ripped up the grass field and express ordered a new Field Turf surface. Is this for the good, or have the Patriots given up some of their home field advantage?

Bruce: I don’t think it was the mud and grass that won those playoff games in the past. The surface is a small factor in the outcome of a football game. It may give some sort of mental edge, but again, that advantage would be minuscule. Plus, the field was pretty embarrassing to see on TV. I think the combination of better footing and better appearance is a good move.

Scott: Count me as one that couldn’t have given two shits how the field looked to the fans. How about the complacent fans work on making some freaking noise for once and leave the groundskeeping to Dennis Brolin? Well, you know what I mean. ‘Home field advantage’ includes ‘field’, which is why the Patriots held on for so long in the effort to maintain the grass. My term for this is ‘indiginous advantage’ (snappy, huh?) and in my opinion, the Patriots (a Northeast foul weather team) gave some away here. It remains to be seen what the long-term impact will be. Until then, I’ll exercise my Constitutional right to make a fuss.

Greg: If it stops me from having to listen to more story in the press about the turf, then sure. Go for it. And, what home field advantage?

Scott: Now THAT’S a hell of a point.

Okay, back to the Big Board of Predictions for another week. Why are we doing this again? Anyway, we’ll start with the Chicago Bears visiting Coaching Legend Eric Mangini and the Jets. Then we’ve got Atlanta at Baltimore, Oakland at Kansas City, Indianapolis at Dallas, San Diego at Denver, and the Giants at Jacksonville.

Scott (5-1 last week, 36-22 overall): Time is running out in this pennant race, so I’m digging into my pocket and buying Dave Kingman or somebody for the stretch run. The Bears will beat the Jets, though I expect Eric Mangini will coach magnificently anyway. Who do you take if you’re starting a team - Mangini, Lombardi, Noll, or Walsh? Tough call. I’ll take the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Broncos at home, and the Giants on the road. In a strategic move (see below), I’ll go with the Colts remaining unbeaten.

Greg (5-1, 32-26 overall): Bears. They impressed me last week taking out the Giants and the Jets aren’t as good as the Giants. Baltimore is about to go 8-2? Yep. Kansas City beats up on the horrible Raiders. Dallas finally takes out the Colts. Denver beats San Diego and the Giants beat Jacksonville, who is inconsistent.

Bruce (3-3 last week, 40-18 overall): How could we possibly pick against Mangini? You’d have to be a fool to do so. I’m that fool. Chicago. I’ll take Baltimore, Kansas City, Denver, the Giants, and in the upset of the week - The Cowboys.

The Frozen Tundra…..Lombardi……The Ghost of John Facenda must know! Packers, Pats. What say you?

Greg: It won’t be easy, but I’ll say the Patriots regroup, make enough defensive stops and cause some turnovers to turn back the Pack 24-17.

Bruce: The Patriots have to break out sometime here, right? The NFC has been kind to them, so hopefully this is the week. Patriots 31-13

Scott: As you can tell from my entries above, I’m wildly optimistic at this point. In a move that’s only part reverse psychology and superstition, I’m going to pick the Packers, 23-13. I don’t know if the slide is over, or in progress. By the way, I seem to remember Corey Dillon running all through the Packers the last time the Pats were in Green Bay (05 pre-season), so Josh, you might consider having your guy mix a hand off somewhere in there amongst the double fake screens.

Lastly, and I do mean lastly, our Mediots of the Week.

Bruce: So was there a rule against changing surfaces in the middle of the season or not. We were told there was, even an NFL Spokesman confirmed it. But it turns out he was wrong. Or did he LIE? Where are our intrepid reporters on this? Even though rumors about changing the playing surface had been reported before, it still came as a surprise announcement to many.

Scott: Gerry Callahan basically said that the Patriots lost Sunday because Bill Belichick ‘hates’ Eric Mangini. That’s pretty idiotic if you ask me. Didn’t Belichick ‘hate’ Parcells too, Gerry? Whatever happened to that? I don’t see football as THAT complicated of a game, but these guys go to the ends of the earth to write about anything but.

Greg: I’d go with Hector Longo, but he is barely media and not worth commentary. So, lets go with Gerry Callahan who went from ridiculing Eric Mangini for months with “rib boy” comments, jokes about his age and a lack of general respect for in all his reporting on the guy since he was hired by the Jets to turn him into the second coming of Vince Lombardi. All based on one game in which the Patriots did not play well, and neither did the Jets particularly, in which the Jets sneaked off with a close, but not real impressive win. Mangini has done a decent job. Callahan, on the other hand, has gone from one overstated extreme to the other in covering the guy, as opposed to actually providing decent, accurate analysis. What should we expect at this point, I suppose?

Scott: Callahan wins in a landslide!

Second Look: New York Jets at Patriots

Well, this was certainly an unpleasant, ugly game to look back at it. Having slogged through the tapes, not much positive can be found yet again this week. It was simply the second poor performance in a row for the Patriots and that has to be somewhat worrisome. Every team is entitled to a slump, I suppose. But in the Super Bowl years of the Patriots, a slump may have meant one off game that they usually pulled out anyways. Or one poor loss. But two is a cause for concern. Particularly at home. On to the individual units.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady has not been himself this year. There can not be any debating that. I suppose we do have mention the changes at receiver. Logically, that has to contribute. But clearly, it goes beyond that. Sunday, the bouts of inaccuracy we have seen this year was evident. The poor decisions. Some bad throws were actually rescued by his receivers and turned into catches. I really can’t say what is wrong with Brady. Its just inconsistency because at times he is fine and looks like the old quarterback we’ve grown to know around here. Technically, nothing really stands out. He has velocity, he makes some great throws at times. Its just not there all the time. I don’t think the patchwork offensive line helped much Sunday, but still Brady is not playing that well.

RUNNING BACK: Seriously, what is up with Corey Dillon. Don’t get me wrong, Dillon played well Sunday. When he played. He ripped off a nice 55 yard run Sunday which featured a “get offfff me” stiff arm and though he ran out of gas at the end, it was still a nice run. But after that, he disappeared until after halftime. Why? Why does he seem to leave the game so often these days? He came back in the second half and made some more good runs, but was out of the game again quickly afterwards. Its puzzling. Laurence Maroney didn’t do much with his chances, which was unfortunate considering he was in there most of the time for Dillon.

WIDE RECEIVER: A nice day, overall. Reche Caldwell had an outstanding day catching big passes all over the field. He was certainly the star of the day. Jabar Gaffney too had a nice day in his first extended playing time and showed an ability to get separation on numerous plays. Look for his playing time to increase. Doug Gabriel on the other hand fumbled on a first half play and was not seen or heard from again. Apparently the carelessness with the ball led to him being made an example of.

TIGHT END: Daniel Graham returned, but did not seem his usual self. His blocking was a bit below par for him. Ben Watson didn’t do much in the passing game but did have some nice blocks to help spring Dillon. David Thomas was quiet and did not show up in any aspect of the game tape positively that I saw.

OFFENSIVE LINE: A bad day. Billy Yates and Nick Kaczur were starting on the right side and that represents a change from the opening day lineup. Yates was ineffective before getting hurt. Kaczur was also ineffective and eventually Wesley Britt came in for him. This patchwork unit needs Stephen Neal back desperately. Too much pressure and inconsistency in the run game was at times the line’s fault. They are not playing up to their early season play at the moment.

DEFENSIVE LINE: An ineffective day. Whether it was injuries or whatever, Richard Seymour did not show up at all. Vince Wilfork was surprisingly handled easily by the center of the Jets line and they controlled the gaps and ran decently, particularly on their first touchdown drive. With the Patriots missing Ty Warren for the game, Jarvis Green did not pick up the slack. Marquise Hill made a rare appearance in the second quarter, promptly went offsides and was never seen or heard from again. He could be on thin ice with his roster spot. Mike Wright did not display his previous hustling, good play. Overall, the worst game of the year for this unit.

LINEBACKER: A quiet day. Roosevelt Colvin had a sack, but continued to miss tackles at times, as well as midjudge coverage out of the backfield. Junior Seau was good again and Tedy Bruschi was definitely improved this week. But neither was great. Mike Vrabel was quiet and had among his worst games as a Patriots, not showing up at all. A bad day here as well.

SECONDARY: I didn’t think this unit was that bad. Ellis Hobbs got beat for a touchdown and could have been beat for another one earlier in the game, but the unit was okay for the most part. I was not real impressed with Asante Samuel’s job on the last Jets, clock-killing drive in which he allowed his man to slip around him for a critical first down. Artrell Hawkins had a nice day at safety.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Bad coverage on kickoffs was on display again. They did pop a couple decent returns. Josh Miller had some terrible punts, punting it deep into the Jets end zone on one occasion when the Patriots were trying to pin the Jets deep. That is just horrible. He didn’t even come close to keeping it on the field and putting it inside the 20. A bad day overall yet again. Brad Seeley needs to get all these units playing up to par. Its killed them against the Colts and hurt them again Sunday.

On to Green Bay, a game that is looking a lot tougher. Much tougher than it did before. Until then.

Game Day Rear View - Look Out Below: Free Falling Pats Lose Second Straight

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

Just eight days ago, the New England Patriots were 6-1 and on the precipice of taking control of the AFC at the halfway point of the 2006 season.

That brief moment may indeed prove to have been their zenith for this year.

The Pats yesterday lost two in a row for the first time in four years by dropping a 17-14 decision to the New York Jets for their sixth home loss in the last thirteen games played at Gillette Stadium.

New England is now 6-3 and in a free fall through the ranks of the AFC.

It’s often said that NFL games played in the months of November and December inevitably separate the playoff men from the regular season boys. If that’s the case, Bill Belichick’s Patriots are in deep shit this morning.

At the point in the season where they are supposed to be showing off their rock hard playoff abs, the Patriots are instead concealing (not too well) the paunch of a soft white, not-ready-for-prime-time underbelly. Time is wasting, and so too are the Patriots. November 1st has arrived, and with it has come New England’s worst two performances of the season.

Even the AFC East division title, which had been considered a fait accompli for the Pats since September, is back on the table. The Jets are now just one game back in the loss column with seven games to play.

The Pats offense is an abject mess. Opposing blitzers run free with no recriminations for direct shots at a badly slumping Tom Brady, who is all of a sudden making Michael Vick look like an accurate passer. Momentum-crushing turnovers, which used to be uncharacteristic in these parts, are now eminently charcteristic, thanks to Favre-like gambles by Brady and a gaggle of players that can’t hang on to the ball. And once again, as they did last year, the Pats are frittering away any hope of establishing offensive balance - and control - by ignoring their running backs in favor of a scattershot pass-happy attack.

Yesterday, despite trailing by no more than 4 points for most of the game, the Patriots ran 41 pass plays to only 25 rushes. New England used its first round choice in last April’s draft on perhaps the best collegiate running back available. They allowed their two starting receivers to leave over disagreements on ‘value’. Yet the Patriots coaching staff continues to air it out while displaying an ADHD-like commitment to its running game. None of it makes any goddam sense at all.

The defense once again held an opponent to 17 points or under, but twice yesterday they allowed time-consuming scoring drives (one clocking in at sixteen plays and NINE minutes) when a stop could have meant everything. They allowed Kevan Barlow to consistently put New York in second and shorts, and made it way too easy on Chad Pennington when he had to throw.

The Patriots have a capable defense, but the ravages of injury (yesterday they played without their starting safeties and defensive end Ty Warren, and with a severely diminished Richard Seymour) and self-inflicted pressure by its own poorly conceived and executed offense took their toll. They are not good enough to cover for their own errors and those made around them. Their forced another turnover yesterday, a well-played interception by a center-fielding Artrell Hawkins, only to see the Jets offense get the ball right back on a sloppy fumble by Doug Gabriel. Naturally, exactly then is when the Jets nine-minute drive ensued.

Funny how that seems to happen, especially to bad football teams. But by all means, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, keep airing it out. Keep putting it all on the shoulders of your most-badly slumping player. Keep ’saving’ Corey Dillon (11 carries) and Laurence Maroney (12) for games that, at this rate, will never be played.

This morning, the Patriots return to Gillette - where they once won 21 straight, a LONG time ago - to lick their wounds, prepare for a road trip to Green Bay, and figure out how they got so irrelevant in eight lousy days.

Game Day Blog - You Can Read It In The Sunday Papers

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

The Patriots will try to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss to the Colts when they host the New York Jets this afternon in Foxboro. Let’s have a look at what the morning papers have to say for themselves:

Over at the Globe, Mike Reiss reminds us that the Patriots’ 57 game streak without back-to-back losses - which began after a December, 2002 loss to Chad Pennington and the Jets - is again at stake today. The Pats are only 3 games from tying the 1995-1999 San Fransisco 49′ers record-setting streak of 60. Reiss also has another solid notebook, where he finds James Sanders trying to work his way back on the field after a disasterous gaffe against Denver in Week Three. Mike also notes that special teamer Rashad Baker will make his Patriots debut after a full week of practice.

Jim McBride has the scouting report for today’s game.

Old Friend Ron Borges has his weekly Football Notes column, where he contemplates a possible return to the sidelines for Damon Huard, who has led the Chiefs to a 5-2 record in the absence of starter Trent Green. I can’t be sure about this, but Ron may be suggesting that the Chiefs stick with the hot hand here, as opposed to simply re-installing the starter once he’s healthy. You’ll remember that Ron took a similar position in 2001, to much acclaim. I can’t for the life of me understand why Ron felt it was necessary to mention that Damon is ‘upfront’ in the story’s first sentence. Is it me, or it that a ‘tell’? If Damon wasn’t ‘upfront’ with Ron, for example, would Football Notes give a shit about who Herm Edwards starts at quarterback?

Ron also mentions Charlie Weis’s new book, which puts him only one behind Belichick, according to Ron. That’s my cue to move on.

Amalie Benjamin has a story on Steven Gostkowski, and the best moments are had by bodyman Josh Miller, who’s been keeping an eye on the rookie.

The Herald has a full slate, led again by ham radio auteur Michael Felger. Felger’s first item is about - surprise! - Michael Felger. In his Quick Hits column, Felger basically admits that he goaded Corey Dillon into a locker room outburst last week, and takes a bow for it. Nice work, Woodstein.

Felger manages to make a good point in the same column about the Jets possibly going to five-wide sets today to challenge the Pats thin secondary. He also writes about the Pats’ imperiled streak, and it seems like Damon Huard might have been ‘upfront’ with Mike too. There’s also a bit about Christian Fauria being miscast in Washington.

Albert Breer is tired of waiting for Chad Jackson. After all, its been two months, dammit. Perhaps the Herald can break the hopeless logjam by writing this same story every goddam week, as it’s been doing.

I have absolutely no idea what it is that Steve Buckley’s trying to say.

Who invited Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post? It’s funny - Vaccaro’s column (which says there may be hard feelings between the Jets and Pats, but thanks to the Pats on-field dominance, there’s been no rivalry) sounds like something a pre-2004 Boston baseball writer might have written before the opening of a Sox-Yankees series.

By the way, Herald, you’re not fooling me with all those other headline links, each of which leads to a ’story’ so short it could have been printed on a matchbook. Why not gather them all up under one link, entitled ‘Paragraphs We Have No Other Place For’?

That’s it for the Big Two this Sunday morning. For a look at the rest of the web, hit the BSMW Patriots News Mashup.

Thoughts for the day….Stanley Morgan is going to be on-field today for a ceremony honoring Troy Brown, which ought to scare the shit out of the Jets, who Morgan once owned. When you see him, let Stanley know we’ll never forget him….in the back of my mind, I’m a tad worried about the Jets return game, with Justin Miller (kickoffs) and Tim Dwight (punts)….at this writing, there’s been no injury updates, but naturally we’ll be looking for Daniel Graham (aren’t we always?), plus returns along the o-line (Neal, Hochstein)….as always, I recommend Reiss’s Pieces for the latest news today, and while you’re at it, bookmark the pithy NBC Sports blog observations of Mr. Tom E. Curran. In the interest of fairness, I should also mention the Herald’s Point After, but warning: they only update this thing if something really bad happens.

In all seriousness, though, I always enjoy the Point After’s weekly ‘Foxboro Faces’ feature. This week it’s Matt Light.

Speaking of Tom Curran, I noticed his blog entry from earlier in the week:

Speculation initially had Belichick peeved at Mangini for taking a job against Belichick’s advice. But there have since been whispers that Mangini was courting Patriots employees to go with him to New York while he was still on the Pats payroll.

Considering that there have been entire forests leveled so that the Boston scribes could speculate on their beloved Belichick-Mangini soap opera, why is this the first time I’m hearing this? Because it doesn’t fit the ‘Mean Bill’ storyline?

Again, nice work, Woodsteins.

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