by Scott Benson

Never has been so much been made over so little.

Ever since the Miami Dolphins narrowly edged a group of Patriot second-stringers last New Year’s Day, the national football literati has been falling all over itself to hand the future of the AFC East to uber-coach Nick Saban and his allegedly emerging Phins. When Miami traded a second-round pick for fantasy king Daunte Culpepper in March, finally acquiring a ‘worthy’ successor to hall of famer Dan Marino, the Miami-is-ready-to-take-the-division-from-the-Patriots drumbeat became a Buddy Rich solo.

A funny thing happened on the way to the forum, apparently.

The whole bandwagon was a sham from the start, anyway. Sure, the Dolphins won six straight to close out 05 (including their gripping victory over Matt Chatham). But four of those wins came over Oakland (4-12), Buffalo (5-11), New York Jets (4-12), and Tennessee (4-12). Prior to their streak, they were 3-7 under rookie coach Saban, after finishing 4-12 the season before. Their offense was horrible and their defense - while better performing than the Patriots’ - was still middle of the road, and as Greg Doyle likes to point out, the Dolphins were losing a productive offensive player in Ricky Williams. Saban and company couldn’t be blamed for Ricky’s sticky problem, but they would feel his absence just the same.

Furthermore, while his stats reign surpreme, Culpepper was anything but a sure bet as a playoff quarterback (only 2 appearances in 6 seasons as a starter, 2-2 record, despite all the accolades).

The whole thing seemed pretty flimsy, to me. Saban had led an impressive turnaround, but it was just one season. And the idea that the Patriots would be so easily pushed aside by this tissue paper tiger was, of course, deeply offensive. After all, the Dolphins have won ONE AFC East title in the last ten years (2000, under Dave Wannstedt). As the crack staff at patriots.com remind us in their valuable game primer, the Patriots have captured four of the last five division titles. Their 27-7 division record (since 2001) gives them the NFL’s best intra-division record over the same period. New England has also won five of the last seven head-to-head match ups with the Dolphins.

So six-straight out-of-contention wins and a hobbled Vikings-reject was enough to trump all that? Come on, now.

The other thing is that the 1-3 Phins are supposed to make us nervous this week, because they always ‘give the Patriots trouble’. Says who? As noted above, the Pats are five of the last seven with Miami overall, and eight of the last eleven in Foxboro.

Saban is no doubt a good coach and strong enough to build even the Dolphins into a serious football operation, but the evidence suggests he will not do it overnight.

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Hopefully you caught Mike Reiss’s piece in the Globe this morning, as he chronicles a typical week of game planning and practicing for the Patriots players and coaches. I suppose it could be argued that this ground has been explored before by Michael Holley in Patriot Reign, but stickler Reiss has a greater eye for detail.

I suppose this type of deadpan, just-the-facts reporting on football minutiae of interest is beneath today’s fashionably-edgy, camera-loving editorialists, which is just fine with me. More for the diligent Reiss to do. Let Felger and the others handle the message-board worthy ‘Randy Moss to the Pats?’ stories.

As always, check Mike’s blog throughout the day for the latest updates from the stadium, including the Patriots inactives for today’s game. Eugene Wilson, Ellis Hobbs, Daniel Graham and Chad Jackson are among those we’re hoping will be missing from the list.

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I noticed fellow BSMW blogger ‘Feejis’ over at Power Play, who got started with another Bruins season this week, has decided he can’t game blog because he misses too much of the game typing. Amen to that, brother. That’s why last week I went back to the old-school post-game GDRV, and dropped the halftime blog update. It was good to get back to writing about the whole game again, start to finish. Hopefully you’ll find it worth your time. I’ll just add that the Patriots are a dominant 1-0 under this new format.

by Scott Benson

I guess my only question now is what’s next.

What do we get this week, from the Patriots?

Obviously, they won’t beat everybody 38-13. The Pats did an awful lot right last Sunday, but it would be unrealistic to think that will be the case every week from here. Only days before, at home with the Broncos, they had struggled badly. Even their wins over the Bills and the Jets left an incomplete aftertaste.

Still, their throttling of the Bengals last Sunday was the mark of a legitimate, hardnosed team. I didn’t expect it, yet it was so surprisingly good and thorough that I can understand the temptation to think they’ve quickly resolved whatever problems they’ve been having. The desire is for last week’s command performance to have a greater significance that resonates over the rest of the season.

Naturally, this week we’ll learn a little more about what last week really meant.

Will the Patriots handle a clearly floundering Miami team, as they should, and head in to the break with a snappy 4-1 record? Or will they get the win but leave it littered with red flags that will hang over the next two weeks?

Or God forbid, will they get hit by a bus and…..gasp……well, you know what. I can’t say it.

I’ll take anything that looks in the least little bit like last Sunday. If any momentum was started there in Cicinnati, it should carry through to a solid, well-managed win this Sunday, and two weeks of the team getting healthier and better acquainted.

A different outcome will only lead me to wonder even more - what’s next?

Believe it or not, the Patriots have already completed one-quarter of their season, and boast a solid 3-1 record. While the overall play hasn’t been perfect just yet, the record is nice. What are you most encouraged about so far, and what needs to be improved?

Greg: The running game. If they can stay healthy, it’ll carry them a long way. Or at least help to. I’ll include the offensive line in that with the backs. We’ve seen some of the best line play this year since I have been watching the team anyways. Its only 4 games, but if they keep it up it’ll be a tremendous asset. The biggest worry for me is the secondary. They’ve played okay most of the time, but still give up the long plays we saw last year and were uncharacteristic of the Super Bowl teams. If they can eliminate that, it’ll go a long way towards making the defense go from good to great.

Bruce: The defense has shown some signs of being very good. The secondary does need to show some improvement, as many of the points that the defense has given up has been on big plays downfield and poor tackling in the secondary. As the year goes on, I see that improving, leaving the Patriots with a really top notch defense that’s going to be tough at the end of the year. The tight ends haven’t been the pass catching dervishes that we thought they might be, but they’ve been effective in the passing and blocking game. The secondary seems to be to the weakest link at the moment, and they were pretty good against the Bengals. I’d like to see continued improvement there.

Scott: My ‘encouraged’ pick is something that may be a little obscure, but I love the way Patriots ball carriers have been lowering their shoulders and blasting the beejesus out of would-be tacklers this season. It seems like every Sunday someone - be it Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, or last week, Daniel Graham - delivers a blow so powerful that it requires an immediate commercial break, so that some poor soul can be brought back to his senses. It just appeals to my crude Cro-Magnon instincts. How long before Rodney Harrison starts lobbying for a few carries, just for the opportunity to render someone horizontal? What needs to be improved? Everything else.

Some reporters are advocating the notion that the Patriots should bring in a veteran kicker to handle field goals while still allowing Stephen Gostkowski to still boom his kickoffs. Is this a good idea, or just more media crap de jour?

Bruce: There’s no doubt that I’d like to see him improve, but I don’t buy the argument that bringing someone else in is going to help his confidence…if anything it might do the opposite. As Aaron Schatz mentioned this week on Foxsports.com, Gostkowski’s kickoffs are helping the team far more than his misses have hurt them, plus, the advantage in field position means it could be more likely that the team isn’t going to be in the position of needing a long range field goal at the end of the game.

Scott: Just leave him alone. I sincerely believe we’re lucky to have this guy. To me, there’s just something crushing about driving for a touchdown, then forcing the other offense to drive 80 yards to respond. These misses haven’t caused the Pats anything, so I recommend we forget them.

Greg: I wouldn’t say its crap. I suppose its a legitimate option and worth discussing. But I disagree with it. Gostkowski is a talented kicker. You just got to give him time. He’s 3-6 on kicks, Adam Vinatierri was 3 for his first 7 in the NFL. Give him time, he’s got the leg. He’ll get comfortable soon.

What’s up with the cornerbacks? Why is it that every year a few games into the season they start dropping like flies after the first frost? Is it something that can be quantified and worked on, or is it just dumb luck?

Scott: It cannot be bad luck. Bad luck is one or two instances, not multiple ones, every single season. Obviously, the size of the players in question could be a factor, but nothing is that easy. I think the Patriots have to take a hard look at every element of their program (such as conditioning and strength training, or even on-field techniques, as it relates to their secondary) to figure out why their defensive backs are so prone to injury. They cannot afford to have this situation every year.

Greg: I think its mostly dumb luck, but with a slight caveat. The Patriots have tended to have smaller corners throughout the Belichick years and that may contribute a bit to their tendancy to go down. But I think mostly its just been unfortunate circumstances.

Bruce: Hey - the smaller cornerback theory is as good as any out there right now in this town. I really have no idea here. Are they asked to do things that put them at more physical risk than other teams? I don’t think so. There HAS to be answer somewhere…doesn’t there? This is ridiculous. At least three years in a row now.

Last Sunday, we really got a sense of Daniel Graham’s value to the Patriots. His outstanding blocking skills were showcased, and he led the team (along with Doug Gabriel) in receptions, and on one occasion, added a physically punishing run-after-catch. It really seems that the Patriots would lose an important (and unsung) piece of their puzzle if Graham left as a free agent, as he can do next spring. Will he be back with the team next season?

Greg: I think he will be. I think he is really a tremendously underrated player in what he brings to the team. No, he won’t have the gaudy catch numbers. But he can catch. There really isn’t much in terms of statistics to quantify the really extraordinarily good blocking he brings to the tight end position. But I tend to doubt Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli aren’t aware of it or the value he brings. I think they’ll make this a top priority and will pay him top dollar. Its probably at least partially the reason they’ve left themselves cap room (along with signing Dan Koppen and more attractive free agents than were on the market this year in the next offseason). I would not be the slightest bit surprised if the Patriots actually value Dan Graham more to the team than they did Deion Branch and feel he is less replaceable.

Bruce: I have to admit, Graham has been my binky since he came into the league. I really like his game and the approach he takes to the game. He was a prolific pass-catcher in college, and probably expected to be a bigger part of the passing game in the pros, but he’s never complained about his role, and instead blocks with a vengeance. I really hope he is part of their plans for the future. Bringing in Dave Thomas and Garrett Mills this year gave me a little pause, but neither of them can bring to the team what Graham can. I think the Patriots realize what they have and will make the effort to sign him, but as we saw with Branch, you never quite know what the player’s camp is going to do in negotiations.

Scott: I wrote earlier this season that Graham would be gone, and despite his strong start, I still feel like he’ll be another whose value on the market will exceed what the Pats are willing to pay. People around the league have to know how good Graham is, because I imagine these killer blocks and underrated receiving skills pop off the film. The one caveat that may drive down his appeal is his durability; he’s never played more than 14 games in a season, and this week, he was again added to the injury list.

Let’s head back to the big prediction board for a look at last week’s picks. Bruce put up a 4-2 record (missing the Texans over Miami and the Redskins over the Jags) and he remains the top seed (18-6 overall) in our race to nowhere. I managed another weekend of flawless mediocrity with another 3-3 record (missing the farking Dolphins, Minnesota over the Bills, and the Ravens - blecch! - over the Chargers). I continue to slide inexoribly towards the inevitable .500 record (15-9), which just makes you wonder why you bother at all. Fat, drunk and .500 is no way to go through life, son. As for our friend Greg, he went 3-3, just like me (11-13; missing Miami, Minnesota and the Jaguars). Maybe we can both get healthy with a relatively easy slate of games this week. Buffalo at Chicago, Tennessee at Indy, NY Jets at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh at San Diego, Baltimore at Denver, and in the NFC, Dallas at Philly.

Bruce: Freakin’ Texans and Redskins. Grrr. I thought the Jags were better than this. I have their defense in my fantasy league and they killed me last week. This week, I like the Bears, Colts, Jaguars (though I’m a little scared here) and Chargers (the Steelers are reaching desperation time). I’ll take Denver to hand the Ravens their first loss of the season, and in Philly, the Cowboys will be swamped by the T.O. circus.

Scott: I’ll take Da Bears, Da Colts, Da Jets (upset special!), Da Steelers, Da Broncos, and because I always think the most annoying thing is going to happen, I’ll pick the Cowboys to upset the Eagles on Monday night. Terrell Owens will probably catch 15 balls for 187 yards and three touchdowns, and we’ll never get rid of him.

Greg: Chicago looks real good; they should take out the Bills. Indy could play one good series and beat the Titans. They will. Jacksonville takes out the Jets at home. San Diego continues the Steelers woes and hands them another loss. Denver beats Baltimore and Philly T.K.O.’s T.O. and the rest of Dallas.

Oooooooooo……it’s the AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins. Hide the children! What devastation shall be wrought on us?

Scott: You know, I think we should throw Matt Cassel, Bam Childress and Eric Alexander back at these guys. There’s no way the second-rate Dolphins beat the Patriots JV’s twice in a row. Pats 23-10.

Greg: The Dolphins have regressed. Their o-line stinks. Their QB is overrated and has never played well without Randy Moss. Their back isn’t a feature back and better suited to split carries with another good back, which they don’t have. And their defense, while good, isn’t dominant like in the old days. My point? The Patriots cruise. 30-17.

Bruce: The Dolphins defense will keep them in this one. I don’t think it will be a runaway, but I think the Patriots won’t be in danger that much throughout this one. I’ll say Patriots 27-13.

Greg, reach in the barrel here and pick out a postcard with the name of our latest Mediot of the Week.

Greg: Can I pick Michael Felger again? Not for anything in particular he said this week, but for his shrieking pronunciations in July, of all months, that the Patriots have no depth. Meanwhile, they beat a 3-0 team on their home turf without a starting cornerback, without a starting safety and without a starting right tackle by 25. That doesn’t indicate they actually do have some depth? I’d say it does. And Felger pushed the panic button on it way too early, as plenty of people said at the time.

Bruce: Gotta be Borges. I think we’ve been over this. Just amazing. The guy is so delusional and jaded that he’s throwing his reputation and talent away. We know he’s got the talent to be a great writer, but he’s making a mockery of his career. He’s the T.O. of sports writing.

Scott: Peter King says watch out Pats, because NOW Nick Saban is embarrassed. You saw how they decimated the mighty Titans after losing their home opener to the Bills, and then rolled on to Houston, where I’m sure they just crushed the Texans. I don’t really know, I haven’t checked the scores. But what I DO know is NOBODY circles the wagons like an embarrased Nick Saban, apparently. Stick to the Chris Simms updates, Pete.

Here’s a look at what the national experts are saying about the Patriots this week:

From Phil Simms on NFL.com:

Maybe people are just tired of the Patriots. I don’t want to go into one of my usual rants, but I just don’t understand why more people aren’t infatuated by them. They can’t wait to tear them down and criticize them for making some tough decisions — balancing money and loyalty on a football team. They find fault with what they are not doing, but don’t give them enough credit for what they are doing.

Players and coaches are always going to leave successful organizations. They have to. They can get more money by going elsewhere. When you win three Super Bowls in five years, it’s impossible to pay everybody for that success.

But what I see when I look at the 2006 Patriots is a big-time NFL playoff contender.

From Dr. Z’s Power Rankings on SI.com (Patriots are ranked 4th this week after being 14th last week):

New England Patriots (3-1)
You’d never know it from CBS’ No. 1 announcing crew because they don’t bother with trivial details such as this, but the Pats opened against the Bengals in a 4-2-nickel, with Hank Poteat as the starting nickelback and Junior Seau out. Poteat is a street free agent they picked up Wednesday before the game. He’s been on and off their roster for three years. And they got by with this, against one of the NFL’s flashiest passing offenses, with Carson Palmer, etc. … you know, the Bengals, who a few idiots had ranked No. 1 in the NFL. Yeah, the Patriots are resilient, almost spooky in a way.

Don Banks on SI.com

PERCEPTION: The talent drain on New England’s roster will finally catch up to the three-time Super Bowl champions, as the defections from the receiving depth chart will drop the Pats into middle-of-the-pack territory in the AFC.

REALITY: The Patriots’ passing game is 16th — definite middle-of-the-pack standing — with 213.8 yards per game and six touchdowns. And it has been ugly at times compared with Tom Brady & Co.’s usual level of execution and excellence. But in this case you can tell your statistics to shut up, because the bottom line is that no team in the NFL is more resilient or more adept at figuring out how to win with what it’s got than the Patriots.

These are not your 2003-04 era Patriots, to be sure. But there they are, standing 3-1 and in first place in the AFC East, a game ahead of both Buffalo and the Jets — whom they’ve already beaten — and two games up on the supposedly improved Dolphins. After watching the Patriots beat the daylights out of the Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday, is anybody in the NFL willing to declare their championship era definitively over? I didn’t think so.

From Peter King’s Week 5 Picks on SI.com

Miami (1-3) at New England (3-1)

I don’t know why I think this will be so close, except that Nick Saban is royally embarrassed right now, and you do not want to embarrass Nick Saban.

New England 17, Miami 16

From the Inside Slant on FoxSports.com:

Before this April’s draft, everyone gave their two cents on who the Patriots should select with the 21st overall selection. Linebacker was the most popular choice. Some suggested New England should go after a blue-chip defensive back. And what about a receiver? Not too many “Draft Experts” had the Patriots selecting a running back in the first round but as usual, Bill Belichick not only surprised everyone, he’s also getting the last laugh.

After the first month of the season, Laurence Maroney is the leader to be this year’s NFL Rookie of the Year. Through four games, the explosive running back out of Minnesota leads all rookie rushers with 294 yards, 3 touchdowns and a 4.9 yards per carry average.

From Peter Schrager’s Power Rankings on FoxSports.com (Patriots are 7 after being 14 last week):

Talk about Jekyll and Hyde. Seven days after being thoroughly embarrassed on national television versus the Broncos, the Patriots blow out the Bengals on the road in CBS’s featured game. This team’s a lot like those “Digital Shorts” on “Saturday Night Live:” Great one week, a complete dud the next. You never quite know which one you’re going to get.

From Aaron Schatz’s DVOA ratings on FoxSports.com (Patriots are 11th after being 12th last week.)

New England fans may be ready to ditch rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski after yet another blown field goal this week. But Gostkowski excels at that other, equally important aspect of his job: kickoffs. Gostkowski is the only kicker to average more than 70 yards per kickoff this season, and according to our numbers, his kickoffs alone have given the Patriots 4.5 points worth of estimated field position compared to an average kicker. Cleveland’s Phil Dawson is the only other kicker more than 2.4 points above average. The better the field position for the Patriots defense, the less likely the team will need Gostkowski to win the game with a clutch field goal.

Adam Schein on FoxSports.com:

There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and the Patriots don’t lose back-to-back games.

Perhaps we all needed to pay attention to the latter a bit more.

I truly hated this matchup for New England, going into Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bengals at home. I wasn’t exactly sure how the banged-up Patriots’ defensive backfield was going to handle the Bengals’ offense.

I should’ve known.

It’s Bill Belichick, after all.

How many times have you thought the Patriots don’t match up (think Peyton Manning and the Colts), only to watch New England win a game and dominate an opponent.

There was a reason the brilliant coach was exchanging playful barbs with Chad Johnson. He was confident. And Belichick passed his confidence onto his team, which simply dismantled the Bengals in Cincinnati, 38-13.

Laurence Maroney, a gem of a draft pick by Patriots executive Scott Pioli, gashed the suddenly porous Bengals’ run defense for 125 yards and a couple of scores. He is the perfect complement, and eventual replacement, to the hard-running Corey Dillon. Dillon, a former Bengal, toppled the Cincinnati defense for 67 additional rushing yards.

It was also noteworthy that Tom Brady used Doug Gabriel a lot more and threw a touchdown to his new receiver. That’s a harbinger of things to come.

New England is still the team to beat in the AFC East…

Vic Carucci’s Power Poll on NFL.com:

4. New England (3-1; unranked): Who said the Patriots were dead?

From Pat Kirwan’s feature “Unsung Heros” on NFL.com:

1. Dante Scarnecchia, assist. head coach/offensive line for the Patriots: The Patriots were in a must-win situation on the road against the 2005 AFC North champion Bengals. Scarnecchia has been in the NFL for too long to remember, but this superb teacher has been taking average linemen and making them very effective blockers. The first thing that jumped out was the fact that the Bengals didn’t create one sack all day long. The next issue was the recent re-dedication to the running game by the Patriots and the end result was 236 yards rushing. The Patriots held the ball for eight more minutes than the Bengals, collected 424 yards of offense and converted 50 percent of their third downs. Scarnecchia has been with the Patriots for more years than head coaches than I prefer to count. And around the league he is considered an innovator and a terrific line coach.

From the ESPN Power Rankings on ESPN.com (Patriots are 5, were 11 last week):

Pretty amazing stat: The Patriots haven’t lost consecutive games since 2002, a stretch of 53 games. So much for all the talk about Tom Brady’s body language, huh?

From the Scouting Matchups on ESPN.com:

Dolphins at Patriots
This is a huge AFC East contest between a struggling Dolphins team and the new-look Patriots. The early optimism in Miami has been fading quickly due to the poor play of the offensive line and quarterback Daunte Culpepper. Every game has been ugly for the Dolphins this season. The Patriots were impressive last week in Cincinnati. If Miami doesn’t improve its offensive output, this could be a lopsided game.

Now THAT was a great performance. The Patriot have played some good games since their last Super Bowl win following the 2004 season. But they haven’t played any great games. One can pretty much place a caveat on almost any win they’ve had since dispatching the Eagles twenty months ago to win their last title. Whether it was the Bucs last year, a good win, but alas the Bucs are one dimensional and not good in cold weather. Or the Jets and Bills last year, big wins, but against bad foes. Or against the Jets and Bills again this year, good moments, but not dominating enough and inconsistent. Even the playoff win against Jacksonville last year, an up and coming opponent on the road not used to the glare of the playoffs and not quite ready for prime time. Always the footnotes.

But Sunday was different. That was the Patriots team we all remember from the glory years. That was the dominant, physical, smart, well-coached team fans have been waiting to see for some time. That was, simply, the single best game they’ve played since dispatching the Colts 20-3 and the Steelers 41-27 in overwhelming fashion in the 2004 playoffs. That was the Champion Patriots finally on display once again, playing Patriots football. It was good to see. Lets examine it positionally.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady was efficient and resembled his old self more often than not. He still missed a few throws and could have displayed more touch, but he also made some fantastic throws as well. He’s had moments this year when one thinks he has finally reaches a comfort level with all his new receivers and he’s going to play the best he’s ever played. Which is saying something. He’s also had some down moments, but they were less prevalent Sunday. And the trend is upward, not downward, which suggests the comfort in the passing game and with all the changes is coming along nicely. Lets see where he is with these receivers in another four games, with a bye thrown in for extra preparation time. All indications are, combined with this running game, the Patriots offense will be a major force to be dealt with in all phases by that time.

RUNNING BACKS: Wow this two-headed monster is impressive. Laurence Maroney is potentially among the elite backs in the NFL. In fact, he may already be there, at least in terms of being a break away threat. And Corey Dillon has run like a man possessed all season. I know I say that every week, but its really something to behold to watch a guy run with the force and effort he displays every week so far this season. I don’t think he’s quite the back, physically, he used to be. He’s lost a bit of speed and probably athleticism. But he is still above average in those areas and makes up for what he’s lost with pure desire. I love watching him literally bring defenders to their breaking point with his running style over four quarters. He is the one dishing out punishment the way he is running, not the defense. I believe his loss to injury was a major factor in the Denver loss last week and a major factor in this week’s win. And Maroney? What can you say. Its just exciting to see the ball in his hands every time he touches it. This combination could do special things this year. A note needs to be made about Heath Evans as well, who had his most impressive blocking week at fullback since joining the Patriots about a year ago. Sunday, he was dealing powerful lead blocks that sprung many big runs. That shouldn’t be lost in the shuffle. He was good. Kevin Faulk’s role has been limited so far this year. He occasionally shows up in the passing game, but with the backs in front of him, there is only so much he can play. He remains a weapon, however, when needed and the coaching staff has found ways to get the ball into his hands additionally on special teams, where he has made some plays and did again Sunday.

WIDE RECEIVER: I have to say, I have been impressed with the professionalism and toughness of Reche Caldwell this year, save one play against Denver where I thought he hit the deck a bit too soon after a catch. But Sunday he didn’t do anything spectacular, but showed he is adapting to the way the Patriots do things and is not the soft player some portrayed him as when he came back to play after one of the more brutal hits to the head I have seen in some time. Very impressive. He’s been a solid player this year and his blocking downfield was also good on numerous run plays. I think he is going to be good the more and more comfortable he becomes in this offense. The same can be said for Doug Gabriel, who has a bit more natural ability than Caldwell and can be a big time receiver in the passing game with time. He has the speed, size and physicality to give the Patriots an element they maybe haven’t had since Irving Fryar. While David Givens brought a bit of what Gabriel brings in terms of physical play and size, he doesn’t have the speed Gabriel has. Still, while early returns are encouraging, Gabriel has a ways to go before he becomes the solid, dependable, comfortable receiver Givens was in this offense for three years from 2003-2005. Chad Jackson appeared a little gimpy still, though he played some. The hope for the Patriots is his health improves so we can see what he can offer down the road.

TIGHT END: A great day for both Ben Watson and, particularly, Daniel Graham. Watching Graham block and contribute in the passing game left me thinking following the game “damn, sign this guy up now….whatever the cost.” For my money, he’s worth more than a Deion Branch any day of the week and given what he brings when healthy, the only real problem he’s had at times since he’s been here, I’d say he’s more valuable and the player I’d rather have on the roster. An extension with him now would be a very positive thing with the Patriots, he is more valuable to them than anyone gives him credit for and his blocking is almost like having a sixth offensive lineman on the field. He’s that good.

OFFENSIVE LINE: As bad as they were in the run game against Denver, they were that dominant against Cincinnati Sunday. Stephen Neal, in particular, was extremely good, but the whole line was pretty damn impressive. Even rookie first-time starter Wesley Britt dominated his guy. They play like this every week, I don’t think there will be much complaining about the offense this year again.

DEFENSIVE LINE: A dominant performance here too. Jarvis Green came off a down week versus Denver to manhandle Bengals center Eric Ghiaciuc. The Patriots smartly moved Green inside against this inexperienced backup on passing downs and he got two of his three sacks thru him and almost added another, dealing physical punishment to Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer all day. The rest of the line was great too. Mike Wright had his best day as a pro in his hometown, but overall its hard to single out anyone. They all played well. You may notice a theme here, pretty much everyone had a good day and defensive line was no exception.

LINEBACKER: The two players I thought were not great, but merely solid, came at the linebacker position. Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi didn’t have tremendous days and didn’t hold up their gaps a couple time, allowing some good runs by Bengals running back Rudi Johnson. Mike Vrabel and Roosevelt Colvin made up the ground with much more solid play than against Denver, however, and Tully Banta-Cain played well in the second half.

SECONDARY: A very good day. Chad Scott had an outstanding day filling in at corner. He’s been very good this year. Rodney Harrison had easily his best day since returning from injury, despite one missed tackle on a Johnson run. And Artrell Hawkins came back nicely from injury. Overall, this patchwork unit held up pretty well, all things considered, and did their job. They can tighten it up a bit and perhaps had the weakest day of any of the offensive or defensive units. But they were still solid.

SPECIAL TEAMS: A good day for Josh Miller again and the coverage and return teams. Antwan Spann had two penalties in his Patriots debut, not good. But other than that all was well. Well, except for another missed kick by Stephen Gostkowski. I don’t think this kid has really been tested yet. One big kick and, with his leg, he could really turn things around for himself. Until he does that, however, its all speculation. He has the leg, but he’s not delivering right now. The kickoffs are good, but the kicks still an adventure. He needs to come on starting this week at home.

Miami comes to Foxboro this week and then the bye. Suddenly, things don’t look so bleak for the Patriots, do they? Funny how that works. Its going to be enjoyable watching this team come together and build on that big step they took Sunday. I’m already looking forward to watching the next step. It could be yet another fun season for Patriots fans and things finally looked back to the championship years for at least one week, after a very long absence. If they can continue that into the bye, watch out AFC.

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

Apologize for this being a little late, everyone, but there’ll be - yes - two pieces in Patriots Game Day this week from me, both of which will be covering, shockingly enough, the media and some claims made in recent columns.

I was going through some NFL articles last week when I came across a piece on the Cowboys by Dallas Morning News columnist Matt Mosley. Now, I haven’t read enough of Mosley’s work to have any sort of preconceived notion about whether he’s one of the better sportswriters out there, so I was inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The article I was reading was entitled “Bye Week an Indicator? Don’t buy it“, and was written on September 21st, during the Cowboys bye week. In it, Mosley quoted Bill Parcells as saying the following:

“It’s a little deceptive, because if it’s a 23-week season (including the preseason), you have to understand that we’re already eight weeks into the season,” Parcells said earlier this week. “So we’re one-third into it from a time standpoint. Probably another month would be about midseason and might be a little bit more beneficial. Somewhere mid-October to November 7th, if you’re asking me what I like. Most coaches would say, ‘Hey, that’s where we’d like it.’ “

Mosley, responding to this, noted that the 1999 and 2003 Cowboys both made the playoffs with their bye week occurring in Week 3, and that other teams also enjoyed success with an early bye. “After an afternoon of exhaustive research and coughing, I’ve come to the conclusion that having an early bye week doesn’t really indicate anything”, Mosley wrote.

Of course, such a comment without any data to back it up can only inspire a bit of peer review, right? Do teams that have early bye weeks suffer a disadvantage?

I threw 1993 out of the data set because it was the lone season that gave teams two bye weeks each; beyond that, I gathered the wins for every team since the inception of the bye week in 1990, compared it to their bye week, and produced the following numbers:

First off, the issue of sample size really rears its head with Weeks 1-2 and 11-17, so those numbers should pretty much be ignored. That being said, the numbers for Weeks 3-10 provide some interesting data:

There is some slight evidence that having a bye in the earlier part of the season is actually slightly beneficial, as opposed to having a bye in the latter stages. I’d feel more confident about the results if it were over thirty seasons worth of data instead of fifteen (removing the ‘96 Jets, who had a bye in Week 10, bumps the average wins up from 7.5 to 7.7, for example), but a difference of three-quarters of a win between Weeks 3-4 and Weeks 9-10 is some food for thought, and would seemingly go against Parcells’ belief that a bye week later in the season would be preferred. His requested bye week timing would have his bye occurring around Weeks 7-9.

Later in the week, I’ll be taking a look at Bill Simmons’ claim that quarterbacks who run frequently age quicker than those who don’t.

Patriots stun Bengals, me, 38-13
by Scott Benson

Mr. Halberstram……..it’s Bill Belichick on the line.

The Patriots today added another chapter to Belichick’s literary canon with a thoroughly shocking 38-13 upset of the undefeated Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Patriots defense, despite missing two starting defensive backs, held Chad Johnson to only 64 yards and allowed the Bengals offense just one touchdown. It was clearly their steady play that set up the surprising victory. Just one week after stumbling badly at home, they covered everybody and allowed only one play over 20 yards ( a 32 yard, 3rd quarter reception by TJ Houshmandzadeh that set up the Bengals only TD, which brought the game to one).

Later, after a season-best New England offensive drive gave the Pats a two-score lead with just 20 minutes to play, the defense came after Carson Palmer and pass rushed him into two consecutive fumbles (both deep in Bengals territory), just the 2nd and 3rd takeaways of the season for the Patriots. They produced a blow-out road win and knocked the high-flying Bengals (average margin of vistory - 12.66 points) from the ranks of the unbeaten.

But the defense was nearly upstaged by Laurence Maroney, Corey Dillon and the Patriots offense, which finally played a full four quarters, and just in time.

The Patriots went right at the Bengals weakness, their below-average run defense, and piled up 234 yards, their best rushing total in a decade (and a 5.8 yards per carry average). Maroney had scoring runs of 11 and 25 yards, and added a 41 yarder that set up a Stephen Gostkowski field goal that gave the Patriots that critical two-score lead that set in motion Cincinnati’s total unraveling.

Yes, you read that last part right - Gostkowski finally made one. It was indeed the Patriots Day.

New England withstood an early push by the Bengals offense to control the game. Cincinnati drove into Patriots territory on each of their first two possessions, but each time, the Patriots dropped a net on the Bengals receivers and forced them to settle instead for two Shayne Graham field goals.

It may have been the most critical interval of the game. The Bengals came out moving the ball for the entire first quarter but had only 6 points to show for it.

Initially, Tom Brady could not summon an offensive response. In a disturbing moment at the end of the 1st quarter, he badly missed an open Doug Gabriel on a 3rd and 9 play, not only losing the 1st down but causing Gabriel to leap and tip the ball, which was predictably intercepted by Cincy’s Tory James in Bengals territory. Once again, though, the defense stiffened, forcing the Bengals to a three and out and their first punt.

Brady slowly went to work, hitting his wide receivers on short, quick passes. With Troy Brown already into the game as a defensive back, receiver duties fell to Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell, and they both grabbed screen-style pegs from Brady to get the offense moving. Chad Jackson suddenly appeared with the ball on a reverse play and picked up a big 1st down. Finally, Brady was able to get over the top of the Bengals D when he hit Ben Watson with a 35 yard throw to the Cincy 11, which set up (on the next play) Maroney’s first touchdown, a dash around left end. The Patriots had driven 83 yards on 8 plays and taken the lead.

After an exchange of possessions (and more solid play by the Pats defense), Kevin Faulk returned a Bengals punt 43 yards and gave the Patriots the chance to extend their unexpected lead before halftime. The Bengals dug in at first, forcing a 3rd and 3, but Maroney again made the play with a 5 yard burst to the left. Three plays later, Brady seemed to make an adjustment at the line, and as a result, Doug Gabriel ran free near the Cincy goal line. He gathered Brady’s lob on the run, and the Patriots had a 14-6 halftime lead, and as importantly, real momentum, for maybe the first time all season.

It continued when the Patriots took the second half kickoff and marched to the Bengals 30 yard line. But that thud you heard was the rookie kicker missing his third consecutive field goal attempt, a 49 yarder that sailed badly to the right.

Naturally, that perked Palmer and the Bengals right up, and they rolled up the field in 7 plays to make the score 14-13. Palmer began to work the Patriots secondary over, hitting Houshmandzadeh for the big play then working closer to the goal line with Chad Johnson. It ended with a Rudi Johnson TD plunge, and a one-point game. Neither Mo, nor his brother Mentum, seemed to be on the Patriots side now.

But on New England’s next possession, Brady quickly hit Daniel Graham, moving the ball towards midfield. Two plays misfired and the Patriots suddenly faced a 3rd and 9, but Brady found Doug Gabriel (4 more catches for 50 yards and a TD) deep down the middle for the first down. Kevin Kaesviharn then speared Reche Caldwell as the receiver brought down (and dropped) a long Brady throw. The ringing hit (which kept Caldwell out of the game for only minutes) brought the ball to the Bengals 25 and set up the second Maroney touchdown sprint. This one combined power with speed, and the best moment came when the rookie stiff armed Madieu Williams to the ground as he neared the goal line.

Brady wasn’t finished, and at this point, the Patriots offense really hit its stride. Brady led the Pats on a 88 yard drive, setting up Gostkowski’s 24 yard (yet not insignificant) chip. The backs led the way (led by Dillon on the ground - he finished with nearly 70 yards) and once again Maroney starred, both on a 15 yard catch and run, and on his 41 yard sprint up the left sideline that was again a mix of power and speed. He finished with his first 100 yard game as a pro (15-125-2).

With the two-score lead in hand, the game went back - fittingly - to the Patriots defense. They ran away with it, and made it a blowout.

On two consecutive possessions, Patriots pass rushers (first Jarvis Green, then Ty Warren) slammed into a retreating Palmer, sending the ball flying, and the Patriots recovered both fumbles deep in Cincinnati territory. And both times the suddenly robust offense drove the ball in for scores (a run from Dillon and a wide open play action to Graham). It was the Patriots turn to enjoy Garbage Time. The 25 point lead even drove Palmer from the game.

Backup tackle Wesley Britt filled in for the missing Ryan O’ Callaghan, and the Patriots offensive line not only racked up a record day on the ground but kept Brady clean with no sacks allowed. The Patriots used 8 different receivers, and the wideouts combined for 8 catches. Brady hovered around a 50% completion rate in the early going, but he surely rebounded to hit some big throws.

The Patriots might have had a little trouble with Rudi Johnson (4 and 1/2 yards a carry) if the Bengals had shown any interest in running. As it was, they played right into the hands of New England, who despite a run of injuries, managed to stifle a damn good passing game on its home field. Asante Samuel, Chad Scott, Artrell Hawkins, Rodney Harrison (his helmet remained on, by the way) , Hank Poteat and even Troy Brown may deserve a game ball for keeping the game close early, and then locking it down late.

Gostkowski’s field goal struggles aside, I challenge you to name another Patriots kicker who ever put the ball into the end zone on every frigging kickoff.

The Patriots now sit at an unanticipated 3-1, with 1-3 Miami (losers to Houston today) headed to Foxboro next weekend.

Such a dramatic turnaround from the futility - and frustration - of just one week ago. Riddled by both injury and apparent doubt, they rose from their knees to confidently execute a complete win - on the road - against a previously-unbeaten playoff team. It felt like the stuff of literary legends.

Which reminds me. Mr. Halberstam, what should I tell Belichick? Does he have another chapter here?

by Scott Benson

I’ve been up since 5:00 this morning and I still can’t think of anything positive to say about today’s game.

Expectations are minimal, naturally. The Bengals are a playoff team off to a 3-0 start, and what’s worse, their passing game presents horrifying matchup problems for the suddenly decimated Patriots secondary. And honestly, the Patriots aren’t a very good team at the moment anyway. They may yet be, in November and December maybe, but today? Will they be able to break the run on offensive turnovers? Will they be able to get a field goal off?

I’m willing to buy into the theory that this Patriots team will need several more weeks to ‘find’ itself. This week pretty much disavowed me of any notion that this team was in any way an extension of the 03-04 Patriots, kings of the football world. The Patriots can no longer collectively shake down THAT thunder, if you follow me. I guess I was pretty slow to realize that.

No, the Patriots are being reinvented, on the fly, before our eyes. They are, as they say, what they are - a certifiable work in progress - and they aren’t Super Bowl Champions anymore, not collectively. These days, they’re just another AFC squirrel trying to get a nut.

It figures to be tough gettin’ today. If the Patriots manage to pull off THIS upset, Bill Belichick will be calling David Halberstam again.

*****
Somebody needs to do a friggin’ study on why the Patriots lose so many defensive backs to injury every year. There is somebody working on that, right? Bad luck just doesn’t cut it, does it?

Is this the inevitable downside of favoring smallish db’s?

*****
All week I’m thinking to myself, “the Patriots never play well in Cincinnati.”

I had no real idea why I thought that, so I looked it up.

The Patriots actually lead the all-time series, 11-8, which surprised me until I remembered that the Patriots have always handled the Bengals (in their many incarnations) in Foxboro. In Cincinnati, the Pats have actually done better than I thought - they’ve won 4 of the 10 games played. But they’ve lost 4 of the last 5, beginning with a 41-7 thrashing in 1990. For some reason, a 45-7 pounding in 1970 still sticks in my head. I was 12, and it was the last game of a terribly forgettable 2-12 season - that must have been a hell of a whipping to leave its mark this long.

I laughed when I was reading about the last Patriots regular season win in Cincinnati (a 31-28 win in 1994). Michael Timpson, of all people, had 10 catches for 125 yards, including a 3rd quarter touchdown pass from Drew Bledsoe that put the Pats ahead for good. I’ll be damned if I can remember anything about that.

*****
I see another Ron Borges snuff film has been posted below. Where is Congress while this filth is so boldly and unapologetically transmitted across public airwaves? Where is the investigation, the hearings, the jail time?

I ask them, have they no sense of decency?