by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

The 2006 edition of the New England Patriots, after being unfashionably late to its own opening, rallied to upstage the upstart Buffalo Bills in a hard fought 19-17 divisional win surprisingly keyed by the previously beleguered Patriots defense.

The game turned when Don Davis stopped Willis McGahee on a 4th and 1 from the New England 7 at the 9 minute mark of the 3rd quarter. The Bills had taken the second half kickoff and had driven the ball some 70 yards in 6 minutes, and were just inches from hanging an ignominious opening day loss on the Patriots. Instead, Davis, the veteran special teamer now pressed into action as a 3rd down coverage linebacker, filled the hole (surrounded by his mates) and saved the day.

Dick Jauron was clearly trying to bury the Pats by eschewing an easy field goal, though as it turns out, those 3 gimme points may have sealed the game for the Bills.

Emboldened by the defensive stand, and aided by a rash of sudden injuries to the cat quick Buffalo D, the woefully underperforming Patriots offense suddenly clicked into gear behind its newly punishing running game and a huge Ben Watson sprint and catch that went for 34 yards on a 3rd and 9 play. They went back to the ground after Watson’s strike, gashing the Bills for 5, 6, 7, and 8 yards at a pop, eventually setting up a diving Kevin Faulk (lined up as a receiver) catch of a Brady lob in the right corner of the end zone that cut the Buffalo lead back to 3 points.

The Pats D quickly got the ball back, forcing a Bills three-and-out (through its first consistent run stopping of the day) as the game entered the 4th quarter. Brady then led the Patriots on a 6 minute, 60 yard drive that was enlivened by pefectly executed 24 yard pitch and catch with Reche Caldwell (who had angled his way to a hole in a Bills zone coverage, just as Brady’s pass arrived), which pushed the ball inside the Buffalo 20 and set up a Stephen Gostkowski 32 yard field goal that brought the game to even. For the record, the kid drained his first meaningful kick for New England. I thought he was supposed to miss those.

A Bills penalty on the subsequent kick set up the go-ahead score for New England. The Pats pass rush pinned its ears back and came after JP Losman, who finally was driven back into the end zone on a 3rd down play, where he was dragged down by Ty Warren for the go-ahead safety. After over 50 minutes of futility, the heavily favored Patriots finally had the lead.

Brady immediately tried to give it back. After getting the ball on the exchange, he inexplicably lofted a lazy, underthrown ball to Watson on 1st down, ignoring the time consuming running game for another try downfield. The pass was intercepted by rookie Donte Whitner, and the Bills suddenly had life. Brady made the plays he had to make in the game’s final 30 minutes, but the Patriots quarterback was far from sharp today.

The pick wouldn’t matter, thanks to a stupid Buffalo penalty that ended the potential go-ahead drive. After Peerless Price had grabbed a Losman toss on 3rd and 2 from the NE 48, Robert Royal was nabbed for an illegal block in the back, and the Bills were forced to re-rack their conversion attempt. This time, Richard Seymour sacked Losman before he could get another pass away.

The New England D, for all their 1st half ineffectiveness, had won the game for the Patriots. Seymour and the defensive line, which had been shoved out of the stadium in the first half, led the comeback as if it had been inspired by its crucial 4th down stop.

The offense ran down the final 6:15 by turning things over to Clock Killin’ Corey Dillon. He finished with 73 yards on 16 bruising carries, perfectly complimented the flashy, shifty Maroney, who added an impressive 17 for 86 in his pro debut.

No Patriots receiver stood out, though Watson’s sprint up the hash, and Caldwell’s catch to set up the tying FG, should make the highlight reels.

All’s well that ends well. The Patriots will have to play a lot better next Sunday in New York.

Beginning with an embarrassingly unforgiveable turnover that was returned for an easy touchdown on the game’s first play, the Patriots have laid the worst kind of rotten egg in the first 30 minutes of the 2006 season. They’re one more score from being blown off their home field by a team that finished 5-11 just eight months ago.

It all begins inside. Though the offensive line has opened holes in the running game, it can’t block the Bills pash rush. Blitzers have gone unblocked (like the comebacking Takeo Spikes, who slammed into Brady and caused the fumble that had the home team down 7-0 in a matter of seconds), and down pass rushers have bullied the Pats pocket. The Patriots are working uphill as far as their receivers go anyway, and the offensive line is making it impossible. The Bills front seven has thoroughly controlled the game, and Tom Brady cannot get anything going. The team has THREE passing yards. It has been a shameful performance.

Defensively, the Patriots have been pathetic. The Bills have twice held the ball for more than five minutes, grinding upfield with a mix of run and pass, for scoring drives. JP Losman looks entirely too comfortable, and thanks to a pillow soft performance by the Patriots defensive line, both Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas have found room to run, and when they didn’t, the Patriots couldn’t tackle them anyway.

This is how bad it is. Three times the Bills have fumbled, completely unforced, and not once has a Patriots player seriously contended for the ball. Weak, weak, weak. What happened to the team that was going to be on a mission after last year’s mistake-filled playoff loss to Denver? When does that start?

The lone bright spot for the Patriots has been 1st round pick Laurence Maroney, who ran for 27 and 22 yards the first two times he touched the ball as a pro. His remarkable shifting runs set up the only Patriots score, which came immediately after the opening fumble. At that point, you had to figure the team was righting itself after a opening day hiccup. Since then, Brady hasn’t completed a pass while a rebuilding Buffalo squad has enjoyed a clear advantage.

30 minutes to make this right, or eat this for a week, or longer.

A little disappointment mixed in with all the happiness over the arrival of the new season; the Patriots inactives have been released, and a few key players will be on the sidelines today.

Tedy Bruschi isn’t yet ready to play with a cast, as had been hoped. Both Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson will be hamstrung to the bench on a day they should have been making their Patriots debut.

That means the team will dress only three receivers. Think they’ll run much today?

Injury-fatigued Pats fans can only shake their weary heads in resignation.

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

It blew in here last night, about 7:00, on the heels of a muggy, overcast day. First, it was the thunder, banging its way up the street, sending Tedy flying (the dog, not the linebacker, who as far as I know is not afraid of thunder). Then, the rains came, set first on spray, then stream, and, for a minute, pulsate. A few minutes later, the coast clear, I stepped out for a smoke. The minute I opened the back door I felt it. It was as if someone had just turned a page.

Fall had arrived.

The abrupt change conjured such powerful memories, everything that comes with growing up and living in New England, the place that invented autumn. Walking out that back door into the suddenly brisk night air brought a familiar, welcome sensation, like the way the smell of something cooking can sometimes bring your mind instantly back, through the clutter of decades, to your grandmother’s kitchen table.

I can’t help it - the first goddam thing I thought of when I felt that air slap against my face was ‘football’.

This morning the clouds have cleared and its just an incredible day, under brilliant, flawless skies, still not yet 60 degrees. It’s hard to imagine a more perfect day to begin the NFL season. Another season that conjures memories to the point that they are tumbling everywhere.

More memories will be made today, and nearly every Sunday between now and January, as they have nearly all of our lives. But the details, which will become important, don’t matter much at the moment. Right now, I’m just celebrating the annual return of an old friend, as I have so many times before. I expect I’m not alone.

****

Mike Reiss has posted his first report from the stadium, and he says there’s a pretty strong wind whipping around Foxboro, so welcome to the big leagues, Steven Gostkowski.

Word came yesterday that the Patriots had released returner-receiver Jonathan Smith and promoted Bam Childress back to the varsity. Wow, they really are heartless bastards. They probably told the former Bill he was going to start just to get more out of him. Anyway, its good to see that Bam ultimately made the team, because he was the best wide receiver they had this August.

I should probably just let this go, but I couldn’t help notice the lead to the Globe baseball notes column this morning, authored by old friend Ask Nick Cafardo:

“The finger-pointing and the blame game are getting old. It accomplishes nothing except to allow angry Red Sox observers to vent.”

That’s written by the guy who, for the last six years, has been raising his eyebrow about “how they do business down there” in Foxboro.

I’ll be back throughout the day. I CANNOT wait.

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

This Sunday, the NFL schedule brings Buffalo to Foxborough for the opening week of the NFL season. Leading Buffalo into battle is third-year quarterback J.P. Losman, who won the starting gig over journeymen Craig Nall and Kelly Holcomb in training camp. Losman’s lot is an interesting one: drafted by a previous regime in Buffalo, he only lasted several games last season before what amounted to a popular revolt cost him his job. He would eventually regain it, but the damage to Losman’s confidence was done. Wins at home against Houston and Kansas City were the only ones Losman could muster; he was 2-7, without winning a single game on the road.

While that sort of data is an obviously small sample and too tiny to draw conclusions about any larger group from, it got me thinking to the usual stories you will see each week from the press about how young quarterbacks will struggle on the road against opposition for a variety of reasons: they’re not used to the noise, they’ll be scared, they don’t get the last substitution, etc. There are also the claims about weather: that a young quarterback will struggle because of the wind in Chicago, the snow in New England, or the ice in Green Bay. I’m skeptical of such claims, and with the trusty pro-football-reference database in tow, I decided to analyze them. I chose to analyze quarterback performance as opposed to winning percentage or a record-based analysis, as I was worried that I would be rewarding or harming quarterbacks for games where their team performed poorly and lost, but the quarterback came in and played well during mop-up time

First, I made a list of every quarterback who’s played since 1996. Then, I selected those quarterbacks who were enjoying their first season in the NFL with over 160 pass attempts (I chose 160 to try and get guys who had played at least a half season of games and averaged 20 passes per game in that timeframe).. This left me with 73 quarterbacks, starting with Tony Banks in 1996 and ending with Alex Smith last year, who had played a total of 803 games. From there, I tracked the performance of each quarterback on both home games and road games during that initial season with 160 passes. The statistics of those quarterbacks on the road and at home are below:

As you can see, the performances are more similar than you might imagine. Quarterbacks throw slightly worse on the road than they do at home, but not anything too dramatic.

We have the average percentages of all quarterbacks (of all experience levels) available for the 1999 season, for example, to compare the numbers to:

As you can see, rookie quarterbacks over the last nine years are slightly less accurate than a selection of all quarterbacks over the course of a season, at home, whilst away, and when moving from one to the other. While they throw for fewer yards per attempt than their veteran brethren, they also lose less of their yardage when going on the road, although the difference is very slight. To be honest, I was expecting a more dramatic difference between the two groups.

What I did next was consider the weather aspect of the problem. While compiling accurate weather data for all games is a project for the future, that data isn’t currently available on a game-by-game basis. What I did instead was, well, hypothesize some bad weather games. I defined a game played in bad weather to be one played after Week 8 of the regular season on the road at Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City, New England, New York (both Jets and Giants), Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, or Washington — a total of 14 teams. This gave us 102 “bad weather” games to look at, out of a subset of 403 total road games, which makes sense; since we are selecting about half the teams of the NFL and half their season schedule, we should be getting about 25% of the games altogether to look at. The data for those games versus the aforementioned rookie road performance is below.

This really surprised me. These quarterbacks actually performed equally as well in road games over the second half of the season in what would be considered poor weather games as they did during any other road game! Their completion percentage and Yds/Att fluctuated very slightly, but not with any sort of definitive change.

With that in mind, I wondered whether all rookie quarterbacks performed better over the second half of the season than they did over the first. The idea made sense, after all: they’d adjust more to the game, they’d know the playbook better, and/or they’d have more rest. The numbers:

As you can see, the concept was confirmed, although again, the differences aren’t truly dramatic. Rookie quarterbacks do certainly play more in the second half of the season, and when they do, they perform slightly better than their counterparts in the first half of the season do. However, it’s worth noting that if all quarterbacks who played solely in the second half played in the first half as well, their numbers very well might go down: there’s a reason, after all, they’re not playing in the first half of the season.

The results of the study, unfortunately, neither confirm nor deny the idea that young quarterbacks struggle when placed on the road. The numbers do imply, though, that any struggles aren’t as dramatic as they are sometimes made out to be. After all, it’s not like Tom Brady couldn’t win on the road.

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

I mentioned earlier this week that we’ve been getting a few notes from people who say they’ve been enjoying Game Day. It’s gratifying to know we’re not the only ones clicking on this page.

But we’re about to piss away any goodwill we’ve managed to bank. We’re about to hand you material that will allow you - nay, invite you - to mock us for months. Years, even.

That’s right - it’s prediction time.

I’m sure at some point, we’ll be deleting this entry entirely, and pretending it never happened. Unless we turn out to be right. Then we’ll be crowing about it for a good long time.

Here goes.

In many quarters, the Miami Dolphins are predicted to wrest the AFC East title from the Pats, who have held it since 2003. The Dolphins’ schedule is 6th easiest in the league (based on last year’s W/L percentage of its 06 opponents, for whatever that’s worth). How do you see the AFC East finishing?

Bruce: The Dolphins have taken some big steps forward the last two years, there’s no doubt about it. I think they’re going to be right there with the Patriots for much of the season in the W-L record, one reason being the schedule that both teams face this season. However, Dante Culpepper just doesn’t do it for me, and while Ronnie Brown is an impressive back, I think not having Ricky Williams around might result in Brown getting a little worn down over the course of the season. I think the Bills and the Jets will both give opponents some tough games over the course of the season. It’s not going to be a cakewalk for the Patriots, but I’m seeing Patriots>Dolphins>Bills>Jets as the order of finish.

Greg: There are some things to like about the Dolphins. Their coaching staff is top notch, they enjoy a great homefield advantage, their defense is tough, they have a good young running back. Chris Chambers is also a good receiver and Randy McMichael a good option at tight end. Still there are some questions that seem to be ignored by the Dolphins boosters. First, their o-line is weak. Daunte Culpepper is returning from injury and was terrible last year before getting hurt. He has never proven he can be a good quarterback without Randy Moss. The win streak they had to end last year was illusory as it mostly came against lesser or disinterested opponents. And the running back who carried them thru that streak down the stretch, Ricky Williams, is now gone. That is a major loss no one is talking about. I see them as around 9-7 again. The rest of the division shapes up with Buffalo third. They are improved, but still a project team with a lot of questions and young players they need to develop. The Jets are very bad. Young at spots, old and decrepit at spots and just not talented overall. Their staff is inexperienced. They’ll be awful. The Patriots win this division going away.

Scott: Obviously, I have the Pats first. This isn’t Dolphins Rear View, or Fish Tank, or whatever the hell it might be. Have I mentioned how badly I want to see the Dolphins lose every game? It’s just the way everybody got on their (unprintable) because they won NINE games last season. NINE? Now all of a sudden they’ve lapped the Pats? Hold on a minute, aqua men. How about winning something first? Has anybody gotten more mileage out of something that happened 30 goddam years ago? Besides Notre Dame and the Beach Boys, I mean. Anyway, I’ve always thought Marv Levy was cool, and I think Dick Jauron is a better coach than we give him credit for. I’ve got him getting the early bump over Eric Mangini’s Jets, but a year or two from now? I’d guess it’s the other way around.

The Patriots enter the season with a schedule only slightly more difficult than Miami’s. What record will the Pats finish with?

Greg: I’ll go with 12-4. The schedule is easier than last year and they’re bound to be less injury riddled on defense. I see major improvement on defense with a more qualified, veteran and innovative coordinator and fewer injuries.

Scott: I like them to go 5-1 in the division (I’m allowing for a stupid, preventable loss in Miami that will send me into the fathoms of depression for nearly 24 hours), 4-0 in the NFC (North; Brett Favre is already talking trade to avoid playing the Patriots), and 4-2 in the AFC. I’m girding myself for some sort of split against the playoff group comprised of the Broncos (home), Bengals (away), Colts (home) and Jaguars (away). So add that up and it makes 13-3, which sounds like a first round bye and home semi-final playoff game. Giddyup.

Bruce: Put me down for 12-4. (Dolphins 10-6) Scott’s schedule breakdown is pretty much how I had it, but I’m planning in another surprise loss here or there, perhaps even within the division. There are a couple back-to-back weeks on the schedule that make me uncomfortable at this moment. (@Bengals - a week after playing the Broncos at home, and @Vikings - the week before the Colts come to town) I’m sort of counting on the team rounding into full steam come December, as Belichick teams have traditionally done, but the Dolphins and Jaguars, both on the road, each offer a tough late season test.

For a changeup, here’s a Steve Burton question. Deion Branch?

Scott: I’ve been downplaying this since July, saying Branch is a good guy who is simply using what little leverage he has to get a new deal commensurate with his recent production. They’re just making the sausage, I claimed, and eventually, the outcome would justify the stomach-turning process. Well, buddy, there’s pig guts all over the goddam place. Because for whatever reason, Deion Branch and his agent have declared war on the Patriots. They claim the Patriots have been negotiating in bad faith when it was they who walked away. They claim they, and not the Patriots, will determine what the team takes in a trade. Then they claim they’ll seek damages from the team if their grievances are denied. Three words: Oh, for crissakes. Let’s face it; what are the chances that Deion Branch will ever willingly play for the Patriots again? It’s purely about winning and losing now; reconciliation seems impossible. Prevail in the hearings, slam his litigious ass in the deep freeze until November, garnish his wages every step of the way, and then franchise him into oblivion next spring. They made it a war, so it’s now incumbent on the Patriots to win it decisively.

Greg: I’m tired of Branch. He’s worn out any goodwill I had for him. You have a contract Deion, it has a year left. Stomping your feet and holding out was a very dumb move and the character you’ve displayed in your tactics is very low. It’s disappointing. I am at the point I hope he does hold out, gets fined the maximum, plays for little this year and then gets franchised next year and the Patriots never trade him until they get an extremely strong trade deal. Deion Branch needs to be made an example of. The classless way he has handled himself, considering he has a signed contract, has mandated that a message must be sent.

Bruce: Who? I can only talk about the players that are in camp, on the roster.

Each week, we’ll follow the matchups involving the Patriots division competitors and those teams that will be vying for conference playoff spots at season’s end. We’re leaving out Miami, Pittsburgh and the Bills this week for reasons that should be obvious. All right, boys, here they are. Straight pick ‘em.

Denver at St. Louis; New York Jets at Tennessee; Cincinnati at Kansas City; Dallas at Jacksonville; Indianapolis at New York Giants; San Diego at Oakland

Greg: Denver is a good team, one of the top AFC contenders. Even on the road, against a St. Louis team adjusting to a new system under new coach Scott Linehan, Denver will prevail. In Kansas City, the moment the Chiefs named a charlatan like Herm Edwards coach, the downward spiral began. It will take awhile to manifest itself. I like the Chiefs to score against the Bengals and hold them down just enough on offense to take a close game at home. I like Dallas. They have a lot of weapons on offense and Jacksonville is inconsistent on offense themselves. I see an upset with the Giants knocking out the run-challenged Colts. Look for numerous picks by Lord Peyton in a now predictable offense. It won’t make a difference whether they upgraded their field goal kicker or not when they lose by 10. I’ll go with Oakland to pull an upset at home against San Diego. I’m not sold that Phillip Rivers, the new San Diego QB, is ready to be the game manager former QB Drew Brees was. Oakland should be a bit improved and at home, they take it.

Bruce: I HATE Denver. Always have. I think they’ll take out St. Louis and their new coach in his first game, though I think the Rams will surprise people this season. I think the Jets might be jacked and pumped enough to hand the Titans an opening loss. Cincinnati should have the fire power to outshoot Herm Edwards and the Chiefs. The Cowboys will handle the Jaguars, the Colts will romp on the Giants and San Diego will take out Oakland.

Scott: Denver annoys me enough that I’m convinced they’ll be around through January just to make me miserable. In the other games, I’ll go with the hometown kid in his first game against the lousy Titans. I’m worried about my Cincinnati pick already; won’t the Chiefs offense run the Bengals off the field? I’ll take Team Tuna against the Jags, and Tony Dungy’s so goddam nice I can’t pick against him, even though he’s on the road. Why did I throw San Diego in here? Oh, yeah, Ladanian Tomlinson and Shawn Merriman. I’ll go with them, even against all those frightening makeup jobs. As Count Floyd used to say - Ooooooo! Scary!

EDIT: A loyal reader points out our first mistake - we originally had Dallas, at home, taking on the Jaguars; the game is in fact in Jacksonville. I’d probably like to change my prediction, and Greg may too; but it’s too late. Prognostication is a tough town.

Moment of truth now. Pats, Buffalo, Sunday afternoon at Gillette. What’s your outcome and final score?

Greg: I don’t see the Bills challenging much. The Patriots are home, relatively healthy and simply a better, more experienced team. I’ll go with 27-13 Patriots.

Scott: It’s a divisional game, which is always tougher, even though the Patriots haven’t lost to the Bills since Lawyer’s Revenge in September of 2003. I’m going to bet that the Patriots offense stays on its pre-season pace, and the Pats defense hangs in with Willis McGahee and keeps the young quarterback from becoming comfortable. I’ll go with the Pats, 23-10.

Bruce: As mentioned, no division game is easy. The Bills will be pesky. A couple keys for the Patriots: keeping Aaron Schobel from dropping Tom Brady to the ground repeatedly, as he has done in the past, and containing the explosive Terrence McGee in the return game. Both have been problems for the Patriots in the past, though as Scott mentions, it hasn’t been TOO bad for New England over the last three seasons. Patriots 24-16.

We can’t go home until we pick a Mediot of the Week.

Scott: I’ll leave Borges for somebody else, although I will say he’s done enough in the last ten days alone to warrant the retirement of this weekly feature. Instead, I’m going with a tag team. In this corner is the Original Screaming Woman, Wendi Nix of ESPN, who had Laurence Maroney out of this Sunday’s game with a knee injury. On MONDAY MORNING, two days before the injury report was released. Must be quite a scoop. In the other corner is Screaming Woman Redux, Michael Felger of ESPN Boston, who called Nix’s sources ‘impeccable’. Felger dug his spike heels in deeper even after Maroney practiced on Monday by saying he trusted Wendi’s ‘womanly intuition’. Eddie Andleman, is that you? When the injury report was released Wednesday, the rookie wasn’t even listed. Nice call guys (and you too, John Tomase). I’m sure they’ll blame Belichick for all of it.

Greg: Let’s go with Mike Adams, talking non-stop about the sinking Red Sox season (and not doing it very well, insightfully or interestingly) on the eve of the NFL season. Not to mention his non-sensical Manny bashing obsession. I understand Adams knows a little bit, but not much, about baseball, but nothing about any other sport. Stuck with the Hobson’s Choice of talking about something he knows nothing about or merely next to nothing, he chooses baseball. Understandable. But given the circumstances, does this no longer entertaining and bitter sounding flunky really deserve a radio show on a major station? I’d say no.

Bruce: I already took Borges to the woodshed this week. Happily, (or sadly) there is still no shortage of worthy candidates. I think I’m going with Alan Greenberg. The Hartford Courant Patriots writer concluded his “Breaking it down” column on Wednesday with the following:

It’s a fact: Belichick is the best coach in football. But his uncompromising attitude toward his own free agents cost him three key players (Vinatieri, McGinest, Givens), and it’s not clear they have been adequately replaced.

The skinny: Owner Bob Kraft, who stepped in to help make sure free agent Troy Brown stayed, was very upset over the loss of Vinatieri. It seems inevitable that he and Belichick will clash.

Is this straight out of the Steve Buckley school of “throwing it out there” or what? Have we heard any rumblings that Kraft is unhappy with Belichick in any way? Even if he was saddened and disappointed with the departure of Vinatieri, (as most of us were) would this move Kraft to challenge, much less “clash” with the coach that has brought him so much success? Also, in just what part of running the team has Belichick proved to be “arrogant”? Here is arrogance, as defined by Webster: “an attitude of superiority manifested in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions.” So where is this arrogance being displayed? I’m not seeing it. It’s an easy buzzword that a reporter that has already had a public spat with the coach this preseason can insert into his column to take a shot, while at the same time ostensibly appearing to be making a point.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tune in later today for a new column by Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders, and naturally, we invite you to check in on Sunday as we blog the season opener between the Pats and the Bills.

by Greg Doyle
As the Patriots prepare to open their 2006 season next Sunday at home versus Buffalo, now would be a good time to take a look around the NFL at the rest of the Patriots division, the AFC East, as well as the other divisions in the league to see where the competition stands coming out of training camp:
AFC EAST
The Patriots main competition is thought to be Miami. However, in their role as this year’s flavor of the month and media darling, there are a few problems with Miami that seem to have been overlooked. First, during their six game winning streak to end last year, its rarely mentioned the running back who was doing the best work for them was Ricky Williams, who is gone for the year to a drug suspension. He was one of the best backs in the NFL down the stretch last year and its rarely mentioned what a loss that could be. The other back, Ronnie Brown, is undoubtedly talented and a very good back. But he’s never handled the role alone, even in college he split time with Cadillac Williams at Auburn. It remains to be seen whether he wears down with an increased workload and the depth behind him is pretty thin. Its also rarely mentioned that six game winning steak was somewhat illusory as four of the wins came against Buffalo, the Jets, Tennessee and Oakland, including squeakers against Buffalo, the Jets and Oakland. They also won another game against the Patriots backups, barely, after the Patriots had clinched the division. At quarterback, Daunte Culpepper arrives. But will it be the former MVP candidate Culpepper or the Culpepper who was among the worst quarterbacks in the league prior to getting hurt last year? I personally always thought Randy Moss made a lot of plays for Culpepper and although Dolphins receiver Chris Chambers is very good, he’s not quite on the level of Moss in his prime. Culpepper will surely be pretty good, but great? I don’t know. He makes mistakes. And he made a lot of plays on the move, will his mobility be the same after a serious injury? We shall see. Up front, the Dolphins didn’t upgrade their mediocre line much and already have lost their starting center, Seth McKinney, for the year. On defense the Dolphins are always pretty tough. But Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas aren’t quite the players they used to be. They replace 4 of their 5 top defensive backs in the secondary. They have top notch defensive coaches on hand in head coach Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Their homefield advantage is among the best in the NFL. I see the Dolphins as a good, but not quite ready team, that should be around 9-7 or 10-6. That could spell a wild card birth, but not much more.

Buffalo may be a little better than expected. Quarterback J.P. Losman looked better in preseason than at any time last year. Though the jury is definitely still out on him and the first returns last year were disasterous. They have a quality runningback who looks rejuvenated this year in Willis McGahee and one of the better young receivers in the league in Lee Evans. The problem is mainly on defense where they have some good young talent, but they are in transition. The return of Takeo Spikes at linebacker should help and Nate Clements is a top quality cornerback, but there isn’t much else to like, yet, on this side of the ball. Dick Jauron is a smart coach. He’ll play conservative, keep some games close and probably pull off some upsets.

Down in New York, former Patriots assistant Eric Mangini has his hands full. He has very mediocre talent all around. Quarterback Chad Pennington is below average and posseses one of the worst arms of any quarterback in the NFL, even before he injured it. The running backs aren’t playmakers and the line young in spots or too old in other spots. The defense has few playmakers beyond linebacker Jonathan Vilma. The staff is inexperienced. It’ll be a long year for the Jets.

AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh brings back their power running game and bruising defense. They should be back in the playoffs. However, the loss of Antwan Randle-El costs them a certain game breaking ability on offense. With coach Bill Cowher unsigned for next year, a few injuries and the post-Super Bowl effect could send them into a tailspin around midseason with a few bad breaks. If they can avoid that misfortune, they’re still a team no one will want to play come playoff time.

Cinncinati has a very explosive offense led by recuperated quarterback Carson Palmer. Rudi Johnson is a workhorse back and Chad Johnson among the best receivers in the NFL. Their offensive line is very good. Their weakness is defense, but they showed progress there in the preseason. Still, the personnel is largely the same and they’re still going to have to outscore teams to go anywhere. That’ll probably get them to the playoffs, perhaps even a division championship, but they don’t have the defense to win it all.

Cleveland is improved under former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennell. But they also lack playmakers on offense. Reuben Droughns is solid, but not a top back. There receivers are pedestrian and they have a young quarterback. They’ll have to wait another year in the Mistake by the Lake.

Baltimore added quarterback Steve McNair and even an aging, beat up former MVP like McNair is better than the Kyle Boller. At running back, Jamaal Lewis appears to have seen his best days a few years ago. There isn’t anything too impressive behind him. That will hurt the running game. They do have an impressive stable of young receivers such as Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams, and a top tight end in Todd Heap. But the lack of a running game will make them an average at best offense. On defense, they’re not the stout defense of days gone by. Ray Lewis is still good, but no longer the best defensive player in the NFL. Terrell Suggs is one of the best pass rushers in the league. They have a top cornerback in Chris McCallister and a All-Pro safety in Ed Reed. The defense will keep them in games and, with some close wins, they could be a playoff threat. But not a championship threat.

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis is another media darling. The thought there is the new kicker, former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri, is going to push them over the top. This is hard to fathom being a factor before the post-season, given that their kicker last year didn’t miss more than two kicks during the regular season. It’ll be pretty hard to upgrade the regular season performance anyways. And the loss of one of the more underrated keys to their offense, running back Edge James will be much more fatal than a shot in the dark hope you’re season might come down to a kick in January. You sorta got to get there first. Maybe the media is forgetting that. A significantly downgraded running game could actually cost the Colts things like home field advantage, bye weeks and easier opponents come playoff time. To the point that the upgraded post-season kicking game, in theory, never will even come into play. The proposed replacements for James at running back have been frightful in their preseason performance and while they should improve in the regular season, you simply can’t replace an All-Pro with lesser players and think its not going to hurt. On defense, they lost three starters there as well. The Colts still have some talent, but their window is rapidly closing. They will likely still make the playoffs, but their days as a threat have ended. If it even ever existed that is.

Houston will be a much improved team in 2006, though it may take a year in the new system under new head coach Gary Kubiak for it really to come together. David Carr has always shown flashes, but has been one of the more harassed quarterbacks in the league in his young career. If they can give him time, he can be a good player. They are a little thin at running back, but look for receiver Andre Johnson to return to his old Pro Bowl form and for an upgraded defense behind young stars like Mario Williams and Dunta Robinson.

Jacksonville could be a team worth watching in the AFC. They got a taste of the playoffs last year. The loss of their best receiver Jimmy Smith to retirement will hurt, but they have a young crew in Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams ready to pick up the slack there. Quarterback Byron Leftwich is a gamer, but inconsistent. Their line is decent, but not great. Where Jacksonville really makes their bones is on defense where they have the best tackle tandem in the NFL in the middle of it in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is a borderline Pro Bowler and heart and soul Donovan Darius, the Jaguars Rodney Harrison, returns from injury after only playing two games last year. Look for the Jags to be back in the playoffs and perhaps ready to make noise.

In Tennessee, the Titans are still rebuilding. They have some young talent in running back LenDale White and quarterback Vince Young. They’ll likely be playing by season’s end to get them experience in a lost season.

AFC WEST
San Diego has one of the NFL’s top back in LaDaniana Tomlinson. That alone can keep them in games. They also have perhaps the games best pass catching tight end in Antonio Gates. On defense, Shawne Merriman enters his second year and could be a Defensive MVP type player. A big question mark is can new quarterback Phillip Rivers replace the departed Drew Brees effectively? I’m guessing no. Rivers has the bigger arm, but will prove to not be yet ready to be the game manager Brees was.

Denver looks to be another solid Super Bowl contender in the AFC. They have a slew of young running backs. As usual its anyone’s guess which one will emerge. I’m guessing a combination of the more complete back Mike Bell, a rookie, and the blazing fast Tatum Bell. They add Javon Walker, an upgrade over the departed Ashley Lelie at receiver and still have some playmakers on defense, such as the great cornerback Champ Bailey. Look for them to win the West and be a threat for the number one seed in the AFC. Still, with Jake Plummer at quarterback, the Broncos are skating on the edge of another disasterous playoff performance he tends to have.

Oakland should be a tougher, more cohesive team with a more definite philosophy under new head coach Art Shell. He’ll certainly want to play a little tougher brand of football than the Raiders have played in recent years. Still, the talent is mediocre and Aaron Brooks not an ideal quarterback for any team that has aspirations of being good. Their defense has few playmakers. If they reach .500, it’ll be an accomplishment for Shell.

Kansas City has Larry Johnson, a premier back which will keep them scoring points. They also have a top weapon in tight end Tony Gonzalez and a decent defense led by young linebacker Derrick Johnson. They also have a top home field advantage and were one of the better teams to miss the playoffs in recent years. But alas, they also have a charlatan as their new head coach in Herm Edwards and this will prevent them, even were they otherwise capable, of doing anything of substance.

NFC NORTH
Dallas certainly has some weapons on offense, from running back Julius Jones to their top notch tandem at receiver of Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn to tight end Jason Witten. They’ll score points. The betting here is Owens will keep his head on straight for the most part his first season in a new place and have an excellent year. Glenn seems to be playing the best football of his career at this point. On defense, they aren’t great, but decent. They are a definite contender to win this division.

Washington, on the other hand, looks primed to take a step back. They go into the season with their running back banged up in Cliton Portis. He’ll be back, and he’s good, but he never seemed to fit perfectly Joe Gibbs more power running game philosophy and Gibbs did inherit Portis and his big contract. Santana Moss is a very dangerous receiver, but one wonders if the quickly aging Mark Brunnell can still get him the ball enough from the quarterback position. They lack playmakers on defense. This could be a basement dwelling team.

Philadelphia has questions, but here is betting they answer them and return to the playoffs. Donovan McNabb, it seems to be forgotten, is a very good quarterback who has a decent stable of receivers led by Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown and a good pass catching tight end in L.J. Smith. They utilize running back Brian Westbrook in both the passing game and running game and he’s dangerous at both and they add a power runner with the return of Correll Buckhalter from injury. On defense, they’re still good and essentially have the core of their Super Bowl defense from two years ago intact. The addition of pass rusher Darren Howard at defensive end adds another dimension. I’m picking Philadelphia to return to form, win this division and return to the Super Bowl from the NFC.

The New York Giants have a good young quarterback in Eli Manning, one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL in Tiki Barber and a preseason terror on defense in the form of Mathias Kiwanuka at defensive end. They are a good but great team and could be back in the playoffs. But they lack the overall talent at all positions to be a Super Bowl team.

NFC NORTH
Chicago has some great players on defense including linebacker Brian Uhrlacher, defensive lineman Tommie Harris and cornerback Nathan Vasher, Pro Bowl quality players all. They mix it up with other very solid players at virtually every defensive position. They’ll be tough to score on if they stay healthy. On offense, the production should be improved with Rex Grossman healthy entering the year at quarterback. Running back Cedric Benson is as talented as they come, he could be primed to breakout. But if not, they have another good running back in Thomas Jones. They’ll visit the Patriots this year and that should be a very entertaining game and a possible Super Bowl preview.

Detroit brings in a new head coach in former Tampa Bay assistant Rod Marinelli. They have some good players, running back Kevin Jones, wide receiver Roy Williams and tackle Jeff Backus. But they lack depth and are playing with a new system. It’ll be another long year, with perhaps some hope for the future with some good young players developing.

Minnesota is another pedestrian looking team in this very bad division. There just isn’t much top talent on this team, though there are many solid players. In a weak division and with their homefield advantage, they may be able to squeek out 8-8 or 9-7. But they aren’t a serious contender.

Green Bay should be improved, if only because the division is so weak. Ahman Green returns from injury at running back. A.J. Hawk is the rookie hope at linebacker and be primed for another year of “will he or won’t he?” in regards to ancient quarterback Brett Favre. The Patriots visit historic Lambeau Field this year and that should be interesting to watch.

NFC SOUTH
Carolina has always been a favorite of some for their tough play. And they played a great Super Bowl against the Patriots a few years back, no doubt about it. But something isn’t there for me when I look at them. DeShaun Foster is a good, but not great, back who has battled injuries every year. DeAngelo Williams showed some flashes in preseason that indicate he could be a ground weapon. Steve Smith amazes at receiver what he gets done at his smallish size and the line is good. On defense, they’re solid there as well. Chris Gamble is an up and comer at cornerback. They’ll challenge and probably win this division, but I don’t see the consistency on offense to win the NFC.

Tampa Bay was a very one dimensional team last year. Shut down their run on offense, and they couldn’t threaten much. I’m not sold that Chris Simms has the arm or pocket presence to win consistently in the NFL. Cadillac Williams is a good young back and they have a good defense still, but I see them taking a step back from their playoff season of last year.

Atlanta Quarterback Michael Vick can play great games at times and single-handidly win them. But he is still is inconsistent and not yet a top quarterback as a passer, if he ever will be. He has improved weapons around him now, with tight end Alge Crumpler in his prime and Michael Jenkins developing at receiver. Warrick Dunn is a very good tailback. On defense, they have some great players led by lineman Patrick Kerney and linebacker Keith Brooking. DeAngelo Hall could be ready to be a Pro Bowler at cornerback. Look for Atlanta to also be a factor in this competitive division.

New Orleans should be an interesting team to watch, if only for the electrifying Heisman Winner Reggie Bush arriving as a rookie at running back. Drew Brees arrives and should bring some game management skills and improve the offense. On defense, there is some talent there up front, but the linebackers are weak and the secondary lacks depth. They’re headed for the basement but could pull some exciting upsets at times. They’re return to the Superdome one year after Hurricane Katrina on Monday Night Football September 25th should be must see TV for any NFL fan.

NFC WEST

The returning NFC champs Seattle figure to be at the top of this division again. Shaun Alexander is among the best backs in the NFL, if not the best. Adding receiver Nate Burleson gives quarterback Matt Hasselbeck another weapon and the defense was much improved last year.

Arizona made a lot of improvements, adding running back Edge James on offense, a big-time move. They also feature two of the best receivers in the league in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. They should be tough to stop in their new stadium this year. If they can get some defense, they could sneak into the playoffs. Watch for cornerback Antrell Rolle to return from injury and help out quite a bit.

In St. Louis, good offense will be on display as usual with weapons Steven Jackson at running back and receivers Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis the threats. They also have a solid defensive line. But they’re adapating to a new system after years under the old one and are a little thin on defense. They’ll be .500 at best under new, inexperienced head coach Scott Linehan

San Francisco made some progress last year and got out of salary cap hell by suffering for a year and cutting big veteran contracts. This year they’ll look to develop young, talented guys like quarterback Alex Smith, running back Frank Gore, both in their second year and continue the defensive improvement they showed last year. Look for marginal improvement, but they’re at least a year away from .500, maybe two years away.