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Game Day Blog – An Old Friend Returns

September 10, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

It blew in here last night, about 7:00, on the heels of a muggy, overcast day. First, it was the thunder, banging its way up the street, sending Tedy flying (the dog, not the linebacker, who as far as I know is not afraid of thunder). Then, the rains came, set first on spray, then stream, and, for a minute, pulsate. A few minutes later, the coast clear, I stepped out for a smoke. The minute I opened the back door I felt it. It was as if someone had just turned a page.

Fall had arrived.

The abrupt change conjured such powerful memories, everything that comes with growing up and living in New England, the place that invented autumn. Walking out that back door into the suddenly brisk night air brought a familiar, welcome sensation, like the way the smell of something cooking can sometimes bring your mind instantly back, through the clutter of decades, to your grandmother’s kitchen table.

I can’t help it – the first goddam thing I thought of when I felt that air slap against my face was ‘football’.

This morning the clouds have cleared and its just an incredible day, under brilliant, flawless skies, still not yet 60 degrees. It’s hard to imagine a more perfect day to begin the NFL season. Another season that conjures memories to the point that they are tumbling everywhere.

More memories will be made today, and nearly every Sunday between now and January, as they have nearly all of our lives. But the details, which will become important, don’t matter much at the moment. Right now, I’m just celebrating the annual return of an old friend, as I have so many times before. I expect I’m not alone.

****

Mike Reiss has posted his first report from the stadium, and he says there’s a pretty strong wind whipping around Foxboro, so welcome to the big leagues, Steven Gostkowski.

Word came yesterday that the Patriots had released returner-receiver Jonathan Smith and promoted Bam Childress back to the varsity. Wow, they really are heartless bastards. They probably told the former Bill he was going to start just to get more out of him. Anyway, its good to see that Bam ultimately made the team, because he was the best wide receiver they had this August.

I should probably just let this go, but I couldn’t help notice the lead to the Globe baseball notes column this morning, authored by old friend Ask Nick Cafardo:

“The finger-pointing and the blame game are getting old. It accomplishes nothing except to allow angry Red Sox observers to vent.”

That’s written by the guy who, for the last six years, has been raising his eyebrow about “how they do business down there” in Foxboro.

I’ll be back throughout the day. I CANNOT wait.

Filed Under: Games, Media

Do Young Quarterbacks Really Struggle on the Road?

September 8, 2006 By Leave a Comment

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders – special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

This Sunday, the NFL schedule brings Buffalo to Foxborough for the opening week of the NFL season. Leading Buffalo into battle is third-year quarterback J.P. Losman, who won the starting gig over journeymen Craig Nall and Kelly Holcomb in training camp. Losman’s lot is an interesting one: drafted by a previous regime in Buffalo, he only lasted several games last season before what amounted to a popular revolt cost him his job. He would eventually regain it, but the damage to Losman’s confidence was done. Wins at home against Houston and Kansas City were the only ones Losman could muster; he was 2-7, without winning a single game on the road.

While that sort of data is an obviously small sample and too tiny to draw conclusions about any larger group from, it got me thinking to the usual stories you will see each week from the press about how young quarterbacks will struggle on the road against opposition for a variety of reasons: they’re not used to the noise, they’ll be scared, they don’t get the last substitution, etc. There are also the claims about weather: that a young quarterback will struggle because of the wind in Chicago, the snow in New England, or the ice in Green Bay. I’m skeptical of such claims, and with the trusty pro-football-reference database in tow, I decided to analyze them. I chose to analyze quarterback performance as opposed to winning percentage or a record-based analysis, as I was worried that I would be rewarding or harming quarterbacks for games where their team performed poorly and lost, but the quarterback came in and played well during mop-up time

First, I made a list of every quarterback who’s played since 1996. Then, I selected those quarterbacks who were enjoying their first season in the NFL with over 160 pass attempts (I chose 160 to try and get guys who had played at least a half season of games and averaged 20 passes per game in that timeframe).. This left me with 73 quarterbacks, starting with Tony Banks in 1996 and ending with Alex Smith last year, who had played a total of 803 games. From there, I tracked the performance of each quarterback on both home games and road games during that initial season with 160 passes. The statistics of those quarterbacks on the road and at home are below:

home_away.jpg

As you can see, the performances are more similar than you might imagine. Quarterbacks throw slightly worse on the road than they do at home, but not anything too dramatic.

We have the average percentages of all quarterbacks (of all experience levels) available for the 1999 season, for example, to compare the numbers to:

home_away_all.jpg

As you can see, rookie quarterbacks over the last nine years are slightly less accurate than a selection of all quarterbacks over the course of a season, at home, whilst away, and when moving from one to the other. While they throw for fewer yards per attempt than their veteran brethren, they also lose less of their yardage when going on the road, although the difference is very slight. To be honest, I was expecting a more dramatic difference between the two groups.

What I did next was consider the weather aspect of the problem. While compiling accurate weather data for all games is a project for the future, that data isn’t currently available on a game-by-game basis. What I did instead was, well, hypothesize some bad weather games. I defined a game played in bad weather to be one played after Week 8 of the regular season on the road at Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City, New England, New York (both Jets and Giants), Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, or Washington — a total of 14 teams. This gave us 102 “bad weather” games to look at, out of a subset of 403 total road games, which makes sense; since we are selecting about half the teams of the NFL and half their season schedule, we should be getting about 25% of the games altogether to look at. The data for those games versus the aforementioned rookie road performance is below.

rookie_average.jpg

This really surprised me. These quarterbacks actually performed equally as well in road games over the second half of the season in what would be considered poor weather games as they did during any other road game! Their completion percentage and Yds/Att fluctuated very slightly, but not with any sort of definitive change.

With that in mind, I wondered whether all rookie quarterbacks performed better over the second half of the season than they did over the first. The idea made sense, after all: they’d adjust more to the game, they’d know the playbook better, and/or they’d have more rest. The numbers:

halves.jpg

As you can see, the concept was confirmed, although again, the differences aren’t truly dramatic. Rookie quarterbacks do certainly play more in the second half of the season, and when they do, they perform slightly better than their counterparts in the first half of the season do. However, it’s worth noting that if all quarterbacks who played solely in the second half played in the first half as well, their numbers very well might go down: there’s a reason, after all, they’re not playing in the first half of the season.

The results of the study, unfortunately, neither confirm nor deny the idea that young quarterbacks struggle when placed on the road. The numbers do imply, though, that any struggles aren’t as dramatic as they are sometimes made out to be. After all, it’s not like Tom Brady couldn’t win on the road.

Filed Under: Columns Tagged With:

GDRV Roundtable – Destroy This Entry Immediately After Reading

September 8, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

I mentioned earlier this week that we’ve been getting a few notes from people who say they’ve been enjoying Game Day. It’s gratifying to know we’re not the only ones clicking on this page.

But we’re about to piss away any goodwill we’ve managed to bank. We’re about to hand you material that will allow you – nay, invite you – to mock us for months. Years, even.

That’s right – it’s prediction time.

I’m sure at some point, we’ll be deleting this entry entirely, and pretending it never happened. Unless we turn out to be right. Then we’ll be crowing about it for a good long time.

Here goes.

In many quarters, the Miami Dolphins are predicted to wrest the AFC East title from the Pats, who have held it since 2003. The Dolphins’ schedule is 6th easiest in the league (based on last year’s W/L percentage of its 06 opponents, for whatever that’s worth). How do you see the AFC East finishing?

Bruce: The Dolphins have taken some big steps forward the last two years, there’s no doubt about it. I think they’re going to be right there with the Patriots for much of the season in the W-L record, one reason being the schedule that both teams face this season. However, Dante Culpepper just doesn’t do it for me, and while Ronnie Brown is an impressive back, I think not having Ricky Williams around might result in Brown getting a little worn down over the course of the season. I think the Bills and the Jets will both give opponents some tough games over the course of the season. It’s not going to be a cakewalk for the Patriots, but I’m seeing Patriots>Dolphins>Bills>Jets as the order of finish.

Greg: There are some things to like about the Dolphins. Their coaching staff is top notch, they enjoy a great homefield advantage, their defense is tough, they have a good young running back. Chris Chambers is also a good receiver and Randy McMichael a good option at tight end. Still there are some questions that seem to be ignored by the Dolphins boosters. First, their o-line is weak. Daunte Culpepper is returning from injury and was terrible last year before getting hurt. He has never proven he can be a good quarterback without Randy Moss. The win streak they had to end last year was illusory as it mostly came against lesser or disinterested opponents. And the running back who carried them thru that streak down the stretch, Ricky Williams, is now gone. That is a major loss no one is talking about. I see them as around 9-7 again. The rest of the division shapes up with Buffalo third. They are improved, but still a project team with a lot of questions and young players they need to develop. The Jets are very bad. Young at spots, old and decrepit at spots and just not talented overall. Their staff is inexperienced. They’ll be awful. The Patriots win this division going away.

Scott: Obviously, I have the Pats first. This isn’t Dolphins Rear View, or Fish Tank, or whatever the hell it might be. Have I mentioned how badly I want to see the Dolphins lose every game? It’s just the way everybody got on their (unprintable) because they won NINE games last season. NINE? Now all of a sudden they’ve lapped the Pats? Hold on a minute, aqua men. How about winning something first? Has anybody gotten more mileage out of something that happened 30 goddam years ago? Besides Notre Dame and the Beach Boys, I mean. Anyway, I’ve always thought Marv Levy was cool, and I think Dick Jauron is a better coach than we give him credit for. I’ve got him getting the early bump over Eric Mangini’s Jets, but a year or two from now? I’d guess it’s the other way around.

The Patriots enter the season with a schedule only slightly more difficult than Miami’s. What record will the Pats finish with?

Greg: I’ll go with 12-4. The schedule is easier than last year and they’re bound to be less injury riddled on defense. I see major improvement on defense with a more qualified, veteran and innovative coordinator and fewer injuries.

Scott: I like them to go 5-1 in the division (I’m allowing for a stupid, preventable loss in Miami that will send me into the fathoms of depression for nearly 24 hours), 4-0 in the NFC (North; Brett Favre is already talking trade to avoid playing the Patriots), and 4-2 in the AFC. I’m girding myself for some sort of split against the playoff group comprised of the Broncos (home), Bengals (away), Colts (home) and Jaguars (away). So add that up and it makes 13-3, which sounds like a first round bye and home semi-final playoff game. Giddyup.

Bruce: Put me down for 12-4. (Dolphins 10-6) Scott’s schedule breakdown is pretty much how I had it, but I’m planning in another surprise loss here or there, perhaps even within the division. There are a couple back-to-back weeks on the schedule that make me uncomfortable at this moment. (@Bengals – a week after playing the Broncos at home, and @Vikings – the week before the Colts come to town) I’m sort of counting on the team rounding into full steam come December, as Belichick teams have traditionally done, but the Dolphins and Jaguars, both on the road, each offer a tough late season test.

For a changeup, here’s a Steve Burton question. Deion Branch?

Scott: I’ve been downplaying this since July, saying Branch is a good guy who is simply using what little leverage he has to get a new deal commensurate with his recent production. They’re just making the sausage, I claimed, and eventually, the outcome would justify the stomach-turning process. Well, buddy, there’s pig guts all over the goddam place. Because for whatever reason, Deion Branch and his agent have declared war on the Patriots. They claim the Patriots have been negotiating in bad faith when it was they who walked away. They claim they, and not the Patriots, will determine what the team takes in a trade. Then they claim they’ll seek damages from the team if their grievances are denied. Three words: Oh, for crissakes. Let’s face it; what are the chances that Deion Branch will ever willingly play for the Patriots again? It’s purely about winning and losing now; reconciliation seems impossible. Prevail in the hearings, slam his litigious ass in the deep freeze until November, garnish his wages every step of the way, and then franchise him into oblivion next spring. They made it a war, so it’s now incumbent on the Patriots to win it decisively.

Greg: I’m tired of Branch. He’s worn out any goodwill I had for him. You have a contract Deion, it has a year left. Stomping your feet and holding out was a very dumb move and the character you’ve displayed in your tactics is very low. It’s disappointing. I am at the point I hope he does hold out, gets fined the maximum, plays for little this year and then gets franchised next year and the Patriots never trade him until they get an extremely strong trade deal. Deion Branch needs to be made an example of. The classless way he has handled himself, considering he has a signed contract, has mandated that a message must be sent.

Bruce: Who? I can only talk about the players that are in camp, on the roster.

Each week, we’ll follow the matchups involving the Patriots division competitors and those teams that will be vying for conference playoff spots at season’s end. We’re leaving out Miami, Pittsburgh and the Bills this week for reasons that should be obvious. All right, boys, here they are. Straight pick ‘em.

Denver at St. Louis; New York Jets at Tennessee; Cincinnati at Kansas City; Dallas at Jacksonville; Indianapolis at New York Giants; San Diego at Oakland

Greg: Denver is a good team, one of the top AFC contenders. Even on the road, against a St. Louis team adjusting to a new system under new coach Scott Linehan, Denver will prevail. In Kansas City, the moment the Chiefs named a charlatan like Herm Edwards coach, the downward spiral began. It will take awhile to manifest itself. I like the Chiefs to score against the Bengals and hold them down just enough on offense to take a close game at home. I like Dallas. They have a lot of weapons on offense and Jacksonville is inconsistent on offense themselves. I see an upset with the Giants knocking out the run-challenged Colts. Look for numerous picks by Lord Peyton in a now predictable offense. It won’t make a difference whether they upgraded their field goal kicker or not when they lose by 10. I’ll go with Oakland to pull an upset at home against San Diego. I’m not sold that Phillip Rivers, the new San Diego QB, is ready to be the game manager former QB Drew Brees was. Oakland should be a bit improved and at home, they take it.

Bruce: I HATE Denver. Always have. I think they’ll take out St. Louis and their new coach in his first game, though I think the Rams will surprise people this season. I think the Jets might be jacked and pumped enough to hand the Titans an opening loss. Cincinnati should have the fire power to outshoot Herm Edwards and the Chiefs. The Cowboys will handle the Jaguars, the Colts will romp on the Giants and San Diego will take out Oakland.

Scott: Denver annoys me enough that I’m convinced they’ll be around through January just to make me miserable. In the other games, I’ll go with the hometown kid in his first game against the lousy Titans. I’m worried about my Cincinnati pick already; won’t the Chiefs offense run the Bengals off the field? I’ll take Team Tuna against the Jags, and Tony Dungy’s so goddam nice I can’t pick against him, even though he’s on the road. Why did I throw San Diego in here? Oh, yeah, Ladanian Tomlinson and Shawn Merriman. I’ll go with them, even against all those frightening makeup jobs. As Count Floyd used to say – Ooooooo! Scary!

EDIT: A loyal reader points out our first mistake – we originally had Dallas, at home, taking on the Jaguars; the game is in fact in Jacksonville. I’d probably like to change my prediction, and Greg may too; but it’s too late. Prognostication is a tough town.

Moment of truth now. Pats, Buffalo, Sunday afternoon at Gillette. What’s your outcome and final score?

Greg: I don’t see the Bills challenging much. The Patriots are home, relatively healthy and simply a better, more experienced team. I’ll go with 27-13 Patriots.

Scott: It’s a divisional game, which is always tougher, even though the Patriots haven’t lost to the Bills since Lawyer’s Revenge in September of 2003. I’m going to bet that the Patriots offense stays on its pre-season pace, and the Pats defense hangs in with Willis McGahee and keeps the young quarterback from becoming comfortable. I’ll go with the Pats, 23-10.

Bruce: As mentioned, no division game is easy. The Bills will be pesky. A couple keys for the Patriots: keeping Aaron Schobel from dropping Tom Brady to the ground repeatedly, as he has done in the past, and containing the explosive Terrence McGee in the return game. Both have been problems for the Patriots in the past, though as Scott mentions, it hasn’t been TOO bad for New England over the last three seasons. Patriots 24-16.

We can’t go home until we pick a Mediot of the Week.

Scott: I’ll leave Borges for somebody else, although I will say he’s done enough in the last ten days alone to warrant the retirement of this weekly feature. Instead, I’m going with a tag team. In this corner is the Original Screaming Woman, Wendi Nix of ESPN, who had Laurence Maroney out of this Sunday’s game with a knee injury. On MONDAY MORNING, two days before the injury report was released. Must be quite a scoop. In the other corner is Screaming Woman Redux, Michael Felger of ESPN Boston, who called Nix’s sources ‘impeccable’. Felger dug his spike heels in deeper even after Maroney practiced on Monday by saying he trusted Wendi’s ‘womanly intuition’. Eddie Andleman, is that you? When the injury report was released Wednesday, the rookie wasn’t even listed. Nice call guys (and you too, John Tomase). I’m sure they’ll blame Belichick for all of it.

Greg: Let’s go with Mike Adams, talking non-stop about the sinking Red Sox season (and not doing it very well, insightfully or interestingly) on the eve of the NFL season. Not to mention his non-sensical Manny bashing obsession. I understand Adams knows a little bit, but not much, about baseball, but nothing about any other sport. Stuck with the Hobson’s Choice of talking about something he knows nothing about or merely next to nothing, he chooses baseball. Understandable. But given the circumstances, does this no longer entertaining and bitter sounding flunky really deserve a radio show on a major station? I’d say no.

Bruce: I already took Borges to the woodshed this week. Happily, (or sadly) there is still no shortage of worthy candidates. I think I’m going with Alan Greenberg. The Hartford Courant Patriots writer concluded his “Breaking it down” column on Wednesday with the following:

It’s a fact: Belichick is the best coach in football. But his uncompromising attitude toward his own free agents cost him three key players (Vinatieri, McGinest, Givens), and it’s not clear they have been adequately replaced.

The key question: Will Belichick’s arrogance catch up with him?

The skinny: Owner Bob Kraft, who stepped in to help make sure free agent Troy Brown stayed, was very upset over the loss of Vinatieri. It seems inevitable that he and Belichick will clash.

Is this straight out of the Steve Buckley school of “throwing it out there” or what? Have we heard any rumblings that Kraft is unhappy with Belichick in any way? Even if he was saddened and disappointed with the departure of Vinatieri, (as most of us were) would this move Kraft to challenge, much less “clash” with the coach that has brought him so much success? Also, in just what part of running the team has Belichick proved to be “arrogant”? Here is arrogance, as defined by Webster: “an attitude of superiority manifested in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions.” So where is this arrogance being displayed? I’m not seeing it. It’s an easy buzzword that a reporter that has already had a public spat with the coach this preseason can insert into his column to take a shot, while at the same time ostensibly appearing to be making a point.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tune in later today for a new column by Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders, and naturally, we invite you to check in on Sunday as we blog the season opener between the Pats and the Bills.

Filed Under: Games, Media, Opponents, Roster Tagged With:

A Look Around The NFL

September 5, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Greg Doyle
As the Patriots prepare to open their 2006 season next Sunday at home versus Buffalo, now would be a good time to take a look around the NFL at the rest of the Patriots division, the AFC East, as well as the other divisions in the league to see where the competition stands coming out of training camp:
AFC EAST
The Patriots main competition is thought to be Miami. However, in their role as this year’s flavor of the month and media darling, there are a few problems with Miami that seem to have been overlooked. First, during their six game winning streak to end last year, its rarely mentioned the running back who was doing the best work for them was Ricky Williams, who is gone for the year to a drug suspension. He was one of the best backs in the NFL down the stretch last year and its rarely mentioned what a loss that could be. The other back, Ronnie Brown, is undoubtedly talented and a very good back. But he’s never handled the role alone, even in college he split time with Cadillac Williams at Auburn. It remains to be seen whether he wears down with an increased workload and the depth behind him is pretty thin. Its also rarely mentioned that six game winning steak was somewhat illusory as four of the wins came against Buffalo, the Jets, Tennessee and Oakland, including squeakers against Buffalo, the Jets and Oakland. They also won another game against the Patriots backups, barely, after the Patriots had clinched the division. At quarterback, Daunte Culpepper arrives. But will it be the former MVP candidate Culpepper or the Culpepper who was among the worst quarterbacks in the league prior to getting hurt last year? I personally always thought Randy Moss made a lot of plays for Culpepper and although Dolphins receiver Chris Chambers is very good, he’s not quite on the level of Moss in his prime. Culpepper will surely be pretty good, but great? I don’t know. He makes mistakes. And he made a lot of plays on the move, will his mobility be the same after a serious injury? We shall see. Up front, the Dolphins didn’t upgrade their mediocre line much and already have lost their starting center, Seth McKinney, for the year. On defense the Dolphins are always pretty tough. But Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas aren’t quite the players they used to be. They replace 4 of their 5 top defensive backs in the secondary. They have top notch defensive coaches on hand in head coach Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Their homefield advantage is among the best in the NFL. I see the Dolphins as a good, but not quite ready team, that should be around 9-7 or 10-6. That could spell a wild card birth, but not much more.

Buffalo may be a little better than expected. Quarterback J.P. Losman looked better in preseason than at any time last year. Though the jury is definitely still out on him and the first returns last year were disasterous. They have a quality runningback who looks rejuvenated this year in Willis McGahee and one of the better young receivers in the league in Lee Evans. The problem is mainly on defense where they have some good young talent, but they are in transition. The return of Takeo Spikes at linebacker should help and Nate Clements is a top quality cornerback, but there isn’t much else to like, yet, on this side of the ball. Dick Jauron is a smart coach. He’ll play conservative, keep some games close and probably pull off some upsets.

Down in New York, former Patriots assistant Eric Mangini has his hands full. He has very mediocre talent all around. Quarterback Chad Pennington is below average and posseses one of the worst arms of any quarterback in the NFL, even before he injured it. The running backs aren’t playmakers and the line young in spots or too old in other spots. The defense has few playmakers beyond linebacker Jonathan Vilma. The staff is inexperienced. It’ll be a long year for the Jets.

AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh brings back their power running game and bruising defense. They should be back in the playoffs. However, the loss of Antwan Randle-El costs them a certain game breaking ability on offense. With coach Bill Cowher unsigned for next year, a few injuries and the post-Super Bowl effect could send them into a tailspin around midseason with a few bad breaks. If they can avoid that misfortune, they’re still a team no one will want to play come playoff time.

Cinncinati has a very explosive offense led by recuperated quarterback Carson Palmer. Rudi Johnson is a workhorse back and Chad Johnson among the best receivers in the NFL. Their offensive line is very good. Their weakness is defense, but they showed progress there in the preseason. Still, the personnel is largely the same and they’re still going to have to outscore teams to go anywhere. That’ll probably get them to the playoffs, perhaps even a division championship, but they don’t have the defense to win it all.

Cleveland is improved under former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennell. But they also lack playmakers on offense. Reuben Droughns is solid, but not a top back. There receivers are pedestrian and they have a young quarterback. They’ll have to wait another year in the Mistake by the Lake.

Baltimore added quarterback Steve McNair and even an aging, beat up former MVP like McNair is better than the Kyle Boller. At running back, Jamaal Lewis appears to have seen his best days a few years ago. There isn’t anything too impressive behind him. That will hurt the running game. They do have an impressive stable of young receivers such as Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams, and a top tight end in Todd Heap. But the lack of a running game will make them an average at best offense. On defense, they’re not the stout defense of days gone by. Ray Lewis is still good, but no longer the best defensive player in the NFL. Terrell Suggs is one of the best pass rushers in the league. They have a top cornerback in Chris McCallister and a All-Pro safety in Ed Reed. The defense will keep them in games and, with some close wins, they could be a playoff threat. But not a championship threat.

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis is another media darling. The thought there is the new kicker, former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri, is going to push them over the top. This is hard to fathom being a factor before the post-season, given that their kicker last year didn’t miss more than two kicks during the regular season. It’ll be pretty hard to upgrade the regular season performance anyways. And the loss of one of the more underrated keys to their offense, running back Edge James will be much more fatal than a shot in the dark hope you’re season might come down to a kick in January. You sorta got to get there first. Maybe the media is forgetting that. A significantly downgraded running game could actually cost the Colts things like home field advantage, bye weeks and easier opponents come playoff time. To the point that the upgraded post-season kicking game, in theory, never will even come into play. The proposed replacements for James at running back have been frightful in their preseason performance and while they should improve in the regular season, you simply can’t replace an All-Pro with lesser players and think its not going to hurt. On defense, they lost three starters there as well. The Colts still have some talent, but their window is rapidly closing. They will likely still make the playoffs, but their days as a threat have ended. If it even ever existed that is.

Houston will be a much improved team in 2006, though it may take a year in the new system under new head coach Gary Kubiak for it really to come together. David Carr has always shown flashes, but has been one of the more harassed quarterbacks in the league in his young career. If they can give him time, he can be a good player. They are a little thin at running back, but look for receiver Andre Johnson to return to his old Pro Bowl form and for an upgraded defense behind young stars like Mario Williams and Dunta Robinson.

Jacksonville could be a team worth watching in the AFC. They got a taste of the playoffs last year. The loss of their best receiver Jimmy Smith to retirement will hurt, but they have a young crew in Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams ready to pick up the slack there. Quarterback Byron Leftwich is a gamer, but inconsistent. Their line is decent, but not great. Where Jacksonville really makes their bones is on defense where they have the best tackle tandem in the NFL in the middle of it in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is a borderline Pro Bowler and heart and soul Donovan Darius, the Jaguars Rodney Harrison, returns from injury after only playing two games last year. Look for the Jags to be back in the playoffs and perhaps ready to make noise.

In Tennessee, the Titans are still rebuilding. They have some young talent in running back LenDale White and quarterback Vince Young. They’ll likely be playing by season’s end to get them experience in a lost season.

AFC WEST
San Diego has one of the NFL’s top back in LaDaniana Tomlinson. That alone can keep them in games. They also have perhaps the games best pass catching tight end in Antonio Gates. On defense, Shawne Merriman enters his second year and could be a Defensive MVP type player. A big question mark is can new quarterback Phillip Rivers replace the departed Drew Brees effectively? I’m guessing no. Rivers has the bigger arm, but will prove to not be yet ready to be the game manager Brees was.

Denver looks to be another solid Super Bowl contender in the AFC. They have a slew of young running backs. As usual its anyone’s guess which one will emerge. I’m guessing a combination of the more complete back Mike Bell, a rookie, and the blazing fast Tatum Bell. They add Javon Walker, an upgrade over the departed Ashley Lelie at receiver and still have some playmakers on defense, such as the great cornerback Champ Bailey. Look for them to win the West and be a threat for the number one seed in the AFC. Still, with Jake Plummer at quarterback, the Broncos are skating on the edge of another disasterous playoff performance he tends to have.

Oakland should be a tougher, more cohesive team with a more definite philosophy under new head coach Art Shell. He’ll certainly want to play a little tougher brand of football than the Raiders have played in recent years. Still, the talent is mediocre and Aaron Brooks not an ideal quarterback for any team that has aspirations of being good. Their defense has few playmakers. If they reach .500, it’ll be an accomplishment for Shell.

Kansas City has Larry Johnson, a premier back which will keep them scoring points. They also have a top weapon in tight end Tony Gonzalez and a decent defense led by young linebacker Derrick Johnson. They also have a top home field advantage and were one of the better teams to miss the playoffs in recent years. But alas, they also have a charlatan as their new head coach in Herm Edwards and this will prevent them, even were they otherwise capable, of doing anything of substance.

NFC NORTH
Dallas certainly has some weapons on offense, from running back Julius Jones to their top notch tandem at receiver of Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn to tight end Jason Witten. They’ll score points. The betting here is Owens will keep his head on straight for the most part his first season in a new place and have an excellent year. Glenn seems to be playing the best football of his career at this point. On defense, they aren’t great, but decent. They are a definite contender to win this division.

Washington, on the other hand, looks primed to take a step back. They go into the season with their running back banged up in Cliton Portis. He’ll be back, and he’s good, but he never seemed to fit perfectly Joe Gibbs more power running game philosophy and Gibbs did inherit Portis and his big contract. Santana Moss is a very dangerous receiver, but one wonders if the quickly aging Mark Brunnell can still get him the ball enough from the quarterback position. They lack playmakers on defense. This could be a basement dwelling team.

Philadelphia has questions, but here is betting they answer them and return to the playoffs. Donovan McNabb, it seems to be forgotten, is a very good quarterback who has a decent stable of receivers led by Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown and a good pass catching tight end in L.J. Smith. They utilize running back Brian Westbrook in both the passing game and running game and he’s dangerous at both and they add a power runner with the return of Correll Buckhalter from injury. On defense, they’re still good and essentially have the core of their Super Bowl defense from two years ago intact. The addition of pass rusher Darren Howard at defensive end adds another dimension. I’m picking Philadelphia to return to form, win this division and return to the Super Bowl from the NFC.

The New York Giants have a good young quarterback in Eli Manning, one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL in Tiki Barber and a preseason terror on defense in the form of Mathias Kiwanuka at defensive end. They are a good but great team and could be back in the playoffs. But they lack the overall talent at all positions to be a Super Bowl team.

NFC NORTH
Chicago has some great players on defense including linebacker Brian Uhrlacher, defensive lineman Tommie Harris and cornerback Nathan Vasher, Pro Bowl quality players all. They mix it up with other very solid players at virtually every defensive position. They’ll be tough to score on if they stay healthy. On offense, the production should be improved with Rex Grossman healthy entering the year at quarterback. Running back Cedric Benson is as talented as they come, he could be primed to breakout. But if not, they have another good running back in Thomas Jones. They’ll visit the Patriots this year and that should be a very entertaining game and a possible Super Bowl preview.

Detroit brings in a new head coach in former Tampa Bay assistant Rod Marinelli. They have some good players, running back Kevin Jones, wide receiver Roy Williams and tackle Jeff Backus. But they lack depth and are playing with a new system. It’ll be another long year, with perhaps some hope for the future with some good young players developing.

Minnesota is another pedestrian looking team in this very bad division. There just isn’t much top talent on this team, though there are many solid players. In a weak division and with their homefield advantage, they may be able to squeek out 8-8 or 9-7. But they aren’t a serious contender.

Green Bay should be improved, if only because the division is so weak. Ahman Green returns from injury at running back. A.J. Hawk is the rookie hope at linebacker and be primed for another year of “will he or won’t he?” in regards to ancient quarterback Brett Favre. The Patriots visit historic Lambeau Field this year and that should be interesting to watch.

NFC SOUTH
Carolina has always been a favorite of some for their tough play. And they played a great Super Bowl against the Patriots a few years back, no doubt about it. But something isn’t there for me when I look at them. DeShaun Foster is a good, but not great, back who has battled injuries every year. DeAngelo Williams showed some flashes in preseason that indicate he could be a ground weapon. Steve Smith amazes at receiver what he gets done at his smallish size and the line is good. On defense, they’re solid there as well. Chris Gamble is an up and comer at cornerback. They’ll challenge and probably win this division, but I don’t see the consistency on offense to win the NFC.

Tampa Bay was a very one dimensional team last year. Shut down their run on offense, and they couldn’t threaten much. I’m not sold that Chris Simms has the arm or pocket presence to win consistently in the NFL. Cadillac Williams is a good young back and they have a good defense still, but I see them taking a step back from their playoff season of last year.

Atlanta Quarterback Michael Vick can play great games at times and single-handidly win them. But he is still is inconsistent and not yet a top quarterback as a passer, if he ever will be. He has improved weapons around him now, with tight end Alge Crumpler in his prime and Michael Jenkins developing at receiver. Warrick Dunn is a very good tailback. On defense, they have some great players led by lineman Patrick Kerney and linebacker Keith Brooking. DeAngelo Hall could be ready to be a Pro Bowler at cornerback. Look for Atlanta to also be a factor in this competitive division.

New Orleans should be an interesting team to watch, if only for the electrifying Heisman Winner Reggie Bush arriving as a rookie at running back. Drew Brees arrives and should bring some game management skills and improve the offense. On defense, there is some talent there up front, but the linebackers are weak and the secondary lacks depth. They’re headed for the basement but could pull some exciting upsets at times. They’re return to the Superdome one year after Hurricane Katrina on Monday Night Football September 25th should be must see TV for any NFL fan.

NFC WEST

The returning NFC champs Seattle figure to be at the top of this division again. Shaun Alexander is among the best backs in the NFL, if not the best. Adding receiver Nate Burleson gives quarterback Matt Hasselbeck another weapon and the defense was much improved last year.

Arizona made a lot of improvements, adding running back Edge James on offense, a big-time move. They also feature two of the best receivers in the league in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. They should be tough to stop in their new stadium this year. If they can get some defense, they could sneak into the playoffs. Watch for cornerback Antrell Rolle to return from injury and help out quite a bit.

In St. Louis, good offense will be on display as usual with weapons Steven Jackson at running back and receivers Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis the threats. They also have a solid defensive line. But they’re adapating to a new system after years under the old one and are a little thin on defense. They’ll be .500 at best under new, inexperienced head coach Scott Linehan

San Francisco made some progress last year and got out of salary cap hell by suffering for a year and cutting big veteran contracts. This year they’ll look to develop young, talented guys like quarterback Alex Smith, running back Frank Gore, both in their second year and continue the defensive improvement they showed last year. Look for marginal improvement, but they’re at least a year away from .500, maybe two years away.

Filed Under: Games Tagged With:

Pats Partially Staff Practice Squad

September 4, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Mike Reiss has the six players that the Patriots named to their practice squad yesterday. All were victims of the team’s final roster cutdown on Saturday. Two spots remain open.

The Pats will be allowed to continue developing draft pick Stevenson, which means there’s still hope for the team’s 6th round selection from 06. Mays and Thomas, two free agents who had their moments this August, remain in the fold as well. Spann, the NFLE corner that nearly made the team, is back, along with 05 fringe lineman Yates and receiver Knight, who got bumped when the Pats traded for Doug Gabriel.

As you know by now, the Pats also cut Bam Childress yesterday and replaced him with return man Jonathan Smith, who had been waived by the Bills. It was a surprise to those – like me – that thought the tiny Buckeye had earned his spot on the team – at a decidedly-shallow position – with a productive pre-season. Smith is purported to be a return threat (he once ran a punt back against the Pats), which Childress is not, but he is probably not a strong enough receiver to make any kind of dent in the rotation. Childress may have been a better bet there, based on his August stats. But clearly, the last-minute acquisition of Gabriel has changed the playing field at receiver for the Patriots, and while it may be too much to ask, the weekend shakeup may also indicate that Chad Jackson is getting closer to action.

The hope is that Childress will grab one of the two open spots on the PS. I just assumed all along that Corey Bramlet would take the other spot; but its been two days since he was cut, and still no Corey. Will the Pats actually go without a QB percolating on the PS? Seems unlikely. Do they have their eye on someone else?

Despite our pleas, safety and special teams ace Hanik Milligan, who had been cut by the Chargers, will not be coming to New England. He signed with the Cardinals over the weekend. A couple of Pats cuts, Dan Klecko and Guss Scott, hooked on with Colts and Texans respectively.

I was all excited about the Steelers losing Ben Roethlisberger to an emergency appendectomy, then I remembered who his opponent on opening night is. Let’s be clear with each other – I want the goddam Dolphins to lose 16 games. If they beat the world champs in their first game, it will be insufferable. Think of the fuss made over the time they narrowly beat Matt Cassel and Bam Childress. We’re still hearing about that. Oh, well, this will make it a better story if they lose to Charlie Batch. That’s mock-worthy.

I’ll just wait until I’m sure the Patriots will beat the Bills. Just to be safe.

Lastly, I’ve gotten a couple of nice e-mails that indicate a few people have actually been reading GDRV, including over the last few days. I know, I didn’t expect it either. Anyway, on behalf of Greg, Bruce and Bill, we appreciate it, and we hope you’ll continue. We’re going back to a regular schedule now after a busy weekend, but if anything happens in the Branch matter, we’ll of course be logging on to the Internet immediately to register our disgust.

Filed Under: News

On deadline day, Pats net receiver and make final cuts

September 3, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

The Patriots pulled off a surprising deadline day trade yesterday, breathing much needed life into the team’s emaciated receiving corps.

As Mike Reiss first reported on his indispensable blog, the Patriots have sent a conditional draft pick to the Oakland Raiders for WR Doug Gabriel. Early reports say that the pick may be a 5th rounder.

The compensation will matter some day, but not today. The need for reinforcements at the team’s weakest position is of more immediate concern.

Gabriel, a 26 year old entering his fourth year, has had some modest success with the Raiders, catching 30+ passes in each of the last two seasons. Unlike to-date-disappointment Reche Caldwell, Gabriel comes to the Pats as a player that may be trending upward. The early feedback from the Coast is good; Scouts, Inc. says Gabriel is a good effort player with size and speed, calling him a solid route runner with capable hands and an element of explosiveness in his game. His 16 YPC average seems to bear this out.

Who knows what Gabriel will do here. Like Caldwell, he may struggle to pick up the Pats offense. But its clear that he has been progressing out in Oakland, and equally clear that he advances immediately to the head of the Pats sparse receiving class. A 5th round pick seems like a small price to pay for the promise that Gabriel brings, especially under these circumstances. He’s affordable, too; for now, anyway.

To learn more about Gabriel, check his news page on Rotoworld.com.

Check Mike’s page for the complete list of Patriots roster moves from yesterday. Let’s see how GDRV did with its roster projections from yesterday morning:

Offensive line – as expected, the Pats elected to keep 9 players here, cutting three. They said goodbye to tackle Randy Hand, guards Dan Stevenson and Billy Yates, and kept Gene Mruczkowski and Wesley Britt for depth. Stevenson joins fellow 6th rounder Jeremy Mincey as 06 draft picks that failed to make the team. They could both be back as practice-squaders later today.

Running back – The easiest guess yesterday was that Patrick Pass would be PUP’d.

Receiver – I’m claiming victory here. GDRV projected that the Pats would keep 5 receivers, and we’ll just gloss over the whole Kelvin Kight thing entirely.

Defensive end – as expected, the Pats trimmed back by one at this position, as Santonio Thomas was released. Marquise Hill lives on.

Defensive tackle – GDRV thought the Pats may cut two here, but LeKevin Smith stayed on, while lightning rod Dan Klecko turned in his playbook.

Inside linebacker – Rookie free agent Corey Mays, as GDRV suspected, came up just short on his bid to make the team. Hopefully, he’ll return as a member of the practice squad. He had a good camp at a position of need for the team.

Cornerback – the Pats elected to keep just four corners, and NFLE vet Antwain Spann was the last one to go.

Safety – GDRV missed this one, figuring only one move would come from this position group. Instead, Pats IR’d Tebucky Jones, ending his season (has Hanik Milligan signed with anyone yet?), and as anticipated, finally closed the book on former 3rd round pick Guss Scott.

So basically, they cut made two moves at the safety position and just one at defensive tackle. Close enough.

And finally….. interesting to see Ron Borges – who has been carrying career criminal Don King’s bags for decades, and who has recently been working as a gratis PR agent in Jason Chayut’s office – calling Patriots supporters ‘toadies’ in this morning’s Globe. As we know, Ron’s dad told the little prick-in-the-making a lot about square pegs and round holes, but apparently he missed the one about throwing stones in glass houses.

Naturally, Borges also has urgent tales of growing discontent in the Patriots locker room. Just like he did three years ago, when the departure of Lawyer Milloy caused similar unrest. As we learned then, players are human, a trait they very quickly put aside when people start crashing into them. It’s perfectly understandable that emotions may be running high, with the most contentious holdout of the Kraft era at its apex. So some grubby scribbler grabs a juicy quote, which he then – naturally – interprets as the Seventh Sign.

Do I have to remind you about a certain September Sunday in Buffalo a few years back, and the explosive Peter King SI story that followed, with Tedy Bruschi declaring that he would never again be so foolish as to be loyal to the Patriots? You’d have thought for all the world then that the Patriots were imploding from within. THEY HATE THEIR COACH! Remember? I’m pretty goddam sure that in one of his many giddy stories during that time period, Borges used the same “if they’ll do that to him, what will they do to me?” quote that he used again today. Let me ask you – how accurate did Ron’s dire warnings turn out to be? How accurate have ANY of his numerous rantings turned out to be?

This morning, Ron’s hoping that you’ve forgotten all that. Because Ron Borges can’t stand that you don’t have the same irrational, jealous hatred of Bill Belichick that he does. And so he toils on, and so shall we.

Filed Under: News

10* more moves will come today

September 2, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

The Patriots will need to make 10 more roster moves today to finalize their 53 man roster by the league’s mandated 6:00 PM deadline.

The team released 10 players yesterday, including veterans Monty Beisel, Chad Brown and Eric Warfield, while disabling LB Barry Gardner, and sit at 63 players (not counting WR Deion Branch, who did not report, hence the * in the entry title) this morning.

The final composition of the roster is always interesting. How many will they keep at each position? Where will the last cuts be made? Here’s a few thoughts.

Offensive line (3) – The Pats are at 12 players currently, and most published reports suggest they will keep only eight. That would leave only Nick Kaczur, Russ Hochstein and just one other player as the depth. Doesn’t it seem they should have more offensive linemen than that? In any event, tackles Randy Hand and Wesley Britt are battling guards Dan Stevenson, Gene Mruczkowski and Billy Yates for one, or better yet two, roster spots here. At minimum, three of the moves happen here.

Running back (1) – It seems certain that the Pats will place Patrick Pass on the PUP list to account for one of today’s roster moves.

Receiver (0) – Under this scenario, rookie receiver Kelvin Kight makes the final 53, though I have to acknowledge that one of today’s moves could involve him. Considering the uncertain short term of Chad Jackson, it seems unlikely.

Defensive end (1) – Most observers tend to think the Pats will keep five players here, which means Marquise Hill and Santonio Thomas are fighting for one spot. Toss up. Thomas has been OK at times this pre-season, but Hill seems to land on his feet in these situations.

Defensive tackle (2) – They have four players right now. What do they need, two? Mike Wright, one of the defensive ends, can fill in here if needed. LeKevin Smith could be another draft choice to miss the final roster, and this seems like it could indeed be the end for fan favorite/fan pinata Dan Klecko.

Inside linebacker (1) – Some suggest that the Pats will keep all ten linebackers currently on their roster. If this is true, then ILB’s Eric Alexander and rookie Corey Mays will survive. Right now, they have 3 OLB’s and 7 ILB’s (though one of them, Mike Vrabel, is probably headed back outside, so a 60/40 split seems more accurate). I wonder if one move will come from here.

Cornerbacks (1) – Will they keep four, or five? With former corner Artrell Hawkins back at safety, the Pats could feel comfortable going with four. If so, either Chad Scott or NFLE guy Antwain Spann will go.

Safeties (1) – You have to figure the Pats keep six safeties. Unless they IR Tebucky Jones, that means either Guss Scott or rookie Willie Andrews goes. Andrews could contribute as a return man as well as swinging between corner and safety. He gets the nod over Guss.

If it breaks out like this, the biggest roster surprises are OLB Pierre Woods and Andrews, one a street free agent, the other a seventh round draft pick. But don’t forget Ryan O’Callaghan, the rookie tackle that won a starting job in his first training camp.

The biggest surprise overall is that the Patriots and Deion Branch have probably burned every bridge that would have allowed his return to the team.

Filed Under: News

Pats, Branch at stalemate; team releases 10

September 1, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Mike Reiss is reporting the Patriots’ terse statement on the Deion Branch situation, issued late this afternoon.

It may be the last word on the dispute for today, but this one will surely grind on, ad infinitum, until we’re sick of everyone involved, including ourselves.

Today was one for the books. It had a real Lawyer-Milloy’s-been-released kind of vibe. And who do we play a week from Sunday?

I’m getting goosebumps!

Maybe its an omen. And there’s your silver lining for today.

Actually, Reiss may have another. The Patriots’ opponents won’t have Monty Beisel to kick around anymore. Scroll down from the Branch statement to find the 10 cuts made to the Patriots roster today.

There’s a few surprises – Beisel (just because I figured with Barry Gardner hurt, Monty would survive), and veterans Chad Brown and Eric Warfield. Warfield, a former starter with the Chiefs, was expected to provide veteran depth, but never caught on. Hey, this whole exchange program with Kansas City? W’re getting screwed on it.

Another surprise was the release of 6th round draft pick Jeremy Mincey.

Rookie FA Patrick Cobbs did earn his way onto an opening day roster, apparently – the Pats flipped him to the rival Steelers today for an undisclosed draft pick.

Without looking at my notes, today’s cuts seem like good news for rookie LB’s Pierre Woods and Corey Mays, and 1st year corner Antwain Spann.

That’s it for today.

I think.

Filed Under: News

Curran: Branch files NFLPA grievance against Patriots

September 1, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Tom Curran of nbcsports.com is reporting this hour that Deion Branch and Jason Chayut have filed a grievance against the Patriots with the NFLPA and have requested that the association hold a special hearing on it today.

The protest is reportedly based on Chayut’s belief that the Pats have reneged on a promise to deal Branch for a “fair and reasonable” offer, after they entertained (and, apparently, declined) an overture by the Jets.

While you’re at nbcsports.com, slide over to Tom’s daily column, where he asks the pertinent question:

“If some team wanted Branch this much, shouldn’t they have stepped to the plate with an offer before the deadline was bearing down?”

Pro Football Talk also alleged earlier that the Jets’ offer was little more than some vigorous AFC East gamesmanship.

All right, I’ll go back to shutting up now.

Filed Under: News

Report says Jets mystery team; Seattle too?

September 1, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

Bob Glauber of Newsday.com has reported that the mystery team pimped by Ron Borges in his column this morning is none other than the New York Jets.

According to Glauber, in a report filed about an hour ago, the Jets have agreed to the parameters of a long-term deal with Deion Branch, and are working to negotiate compensation with the Patriots.

Pardon me for being skeptical as to the Jets sincerity. Naturally, the offer comes from a team in direct divisional competition with the Patriots. They wouldn’t have anything to gain by driving up the price on the holdout receiver and virtually assuring than he’ll will remain on the sidelines as the season begins next week. Would they?

The Jets, naturally, play the Patriots twice this season, in weeks 2 and 10.

Edit: Slimy PR intern Ron Borges, on leave from the Globe as he finally breaks in to player representation, is now reporting that the Seattle Seahawks have entered the bidding for a sign/trade with Branch.

At this point, its seems adviseable that GDRV STFU for a bit and see where events take us. It will certainly be an interesting day. We’ll undoubtedly have some reaction later.

Filed Under: News

Borges claims sign/trade offer imminent

September 1, 2006 By Leave a Comment

by Scott Benson
[email protected]

In a sadly typical column in which he gleefully bashes the Patriots from pillar to post, the Boston Globe’s Ron Borges claims that Deion Branch and his agent Jason Chayut will today inform the Patriots that they have found a suitor that is willing to meet the salary demands of the holdout receiver and give the Patriots a “fair-market offer” for his services.

Who is that team, and what is their offer to the Patriots? How much are they willing to pay Branch? Does it exceed the offer already on the table from the Patriots? By how much? And how do we know that this ‘offer’ isn’t just a Trojan Horse sent by one of the team’s primary competitors?

You’d think a man the Globe claims is one of the finest pro football writers in the nation might have that information, and be in a rush to share it. You’d be wrong. Though he lets us know in no uncertain terms that he has the inside scoop, the best Borges can muster is several column inches worth of doubletalk delivered with a smirk. Ron knows something, and he’s not telling, other than to claim (in the most smarmy way possible; you can almost hear the evil laugh and the moustache twisting) that the Patriots are finally, gloriously about to get their just desserts. BWAAAAAAA HAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAA.

The Pats allegedly have a surprise coming their way and Ron isn’t about to do anything to ruin the shock value. One thing he’s up front about though – the Patriots either consent to the mystery trade offer, or lose Branch until week 10. And subject themselves to another lifetime of “cheap, disingenuous” taunts from Morrissey Blvd.

It calls into question just who Ron is working for here. Is he a journalist reporting news for the once-proud Globe, or a PR hack delivering spoon-fed press releases dictated by a sports agent? He wouldn’t be enabling a last-second, no-look, half-court heave by Chayut here, would he?

I think we know the answer. Go find your own link for the column, if you must. I’m not directing any traffic towards Don King’s – and Jason Chayut’s – store bought lackey.

Filed Under: News
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