GDRV Roundtable

by Greg Doyle
greg@bostonsportsmedia.com

Well, here we are for another week of the Roundtable and it comes before a game a lot of Patriots fans have had circled since the schedule came out. This should be a good test of where the Patriots are at. Although it appears both Buffalo and the New York Jets may have been underrated to a certain extent going into the season, neither is a legitimate threat for a championship. Now comes an opponent that many feel should be, even if they are off to a slow start, in Denver. So let’s see what is going on in Patriots-land headed into this big, prime time matchup.

There has been some talk Eugene Wilson is off to a disappointing start this season and is still not back to his 2003-2004 level. Is this true?

Greg: I don’t see it. He may not quite be playing at his 2003-2004 level, but neither is Rodney Harrison yet and that has to make a difference. I will concede he had a somewhat down year, for him, in 05. But not nearly as bad as sometimes portrayed. He is off to a much better start this year and a couple open field tackles he didn’t make (along with others) can exaggerate the volume of some who don’t know what else to say. But how anyone can say he played bad against Buffalo when the defense held them to 10 points and 240 yards is beyond me. And any talk he isn’t an above-average safety, albeit not quite yet at his best level, is pretty ridiculous in my opinion.

Bruce: Well, one of my friends was screaming WILSON!!! in his best Tom Hanks voice for much of the afternoon Sunday, so I don’t think that was a good sign. However, when a player in the secondary doesn’t finish a tackle, the play is usually magnified beyond the scope of where it actually belongs in his overall body of work. Wilson hasn’t made that “leap” to being the great player that many people expected, but he’s still a young guy who brings a lot to the secondary.

Scott: I just wish he could get back to his 03-04 form in terms of picks, being that he IS the centerfielder and all. He’s had just one interception since the start of 2005.

The Jets and Bills gave the Patriots two pretty competitive games, in the final analysis. Did we underrate these two teams? Are they playoff contenders? Should the Patriots be worried about the second time around against these teams?

Scott: I can’t say the Jets have impressed me as much as the Bills (I think we definitely overlooked them, and Dick Jauron, who has put together a good defense or two before), but I’ll say that I think the Patriots have to be worried whenever they play a divisional game. Unless they’re playing the Dolphins, who suck.

Bruce: It’s still too early to tell. Both games had elements which aren’t going to be seen again. With the Bills, it was the first time facing a new regime, and there wasn’t a lot of film that could used for preparation against this specific team. They were also fired up right out of the blocks, in their first game under the new staff. The next time around, there will be a lot more to look at and prepare for. It will be in Buffalo, so I expect another tight game. For the Jets, it was their home opener, and lest we all forgot, the Patriots ran out to a pretty easy 24-0 lead on this club. Whether they got a little complacent, or whether Eric Mangini and the Jets made some adjustments, I’m not sure, but the game was never really in doubt in my mind. I don’t see the Jets as playoff contenders.

Greg: I think we did underrate them to a degree, particularly Buffalo. Buffalo has a good defense and a smart coach who’ll play conservative and knows how to keep games close. I suppose they could make the playoffs with a few breaks. But I still consider them a long shot and with all their young players, they’ll have a down stretch. The Jets we may have underrated, but they’re still not good. They have a couple more players than maybe we first thought, Jerricho Cotchery impressed me the other day and Kerry Rhodes is a good young safety. But they still should be a bad team and if they win six games, I’d say Mangini did a decent job. I’d say the game up in Buffalo could be a tough matchup if Buffalo can sustain their current play, which is questionable, but I don’t see much chance of the Jets coming up to Gillette and even coming very close.

So, can the Patriots keep up this impressive ground game they’ve had through two games?

Greg: Yes, absolutely, as long as they’re in good health. They have a great set of backs. Maroney is a potential game-breaker, Dillon looks healthy and is dishing out serious physical punishment to the opposing defenses and Kevin Faulk is a good draw back and change of pace. The line will only get better and are all pretty young. It looks good and should be great by the second half of the season, again, assuming health.

Scott: I’m at my happiest when the Patriots run the ball they way they have. The chuckleheads that were crowing about Dillon getting old and slowing down should get the hell out there and try to tackle him in the 4th quarter sometime. I suppose they might break a manicured nail, or muss up their Supercuts TV hairstyle. So its probably safer for you to stay in the pressbox and continue being a Yellow Journalist, which is what you do best, ‘Felgy’. Maroney’s been good, too, as has Faulk, and don’t count out Bully Brother Heath Evans, who will make a play or two here and there. Barring unforseen injury (less likely with the way they’re spreading it out), they should keep rolling, and may end up with the best running game in the NFL. I have to pinch myself to make sure this isn’t just a dream.

Bruce: Yes, health is obviously the key here, both for the backs and for the offensive line. I think this is going to continue to be strength of the team all season. If they get the passing game up to speed, I see the running game being even more effective.

Tom Brady has not been on top of his game. What is the reason? Are we seeing a general decline in Brady or do you expect the same old Tom Brady to reappear soon?

Bruce: Well, as we know, two games is AB-SO-LUTELY enough time to pass swift and final judgment on players and teams. I say Brady’s cooked.

Right. Well, I don’t know if we’ll see the Brady of last year on a consistent basis immediately…it’s going to take some time to build up the rapport and trust with the new receivers. It’s been noted that he could just nod or make eye contact with Givens or Branch and then they would both know what the other was thinking. That doesn’t happen overnight. It’s worth noting that in the final drive against the Jets, the guys Brady was throwing to in the key spots were Troy Brown and Kevin Faulk…two guys Brady has been throwing to for years. Brady will be fine. As long as he doesn’t take a blind side hit each week like he has the first two weeks.

Scott: I’m sure there’s been some sort of crisis in confidence here, what with the Branch situation blowing up just before (and after) the opening game. He’s just made some really lousy throws, which is unlike the accurate Brady. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Tom’s proven himself to be THE consummate pro, and given a little time, and repetition, he’ll even out. First step will be to play two good halves of football in one week.

Greg: Well, I think he’s been decent but not great so far. I am not worried. Probably a combination of some pretty good defense, new receivers and early season rustyness has had him a bit off. Look for him to break out soon and pull some of those vintage Tom Brady games we’ve all gotten used to.

Well, a much better week for me at 5-1. Phew, that was embarrassing. My record now stands at 5-7. Bruce also went 5-1 and is now 9-3 and Scott did as well, so his record also stands at 9-3. Lets look at the big Jacksonville at Indy matchup, the Jets visiting Buffalo, Miami trying to get untracked at home versus Tennessee, Baltimore visiting Cleveland a big AFC North matchup with the Bengals visiting the Steelers and we’ll step outside the AFC for one game and look at Monday night’s matchup of Atlanta traveling to New Orleans for the first game in the Superdome and in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina in what should be an emotional game.

Greg: Some good games this week. I like Jacksonville to surprise Indy and knock them off. Jacksonville is playing well right now and always gives Indy tough games. I like Buffalo at home to take out the Jets. Miami got a blessing in Tennessee showing up on their schedule, that should get them untracked and they’ll be the Titans. I will call for Cleveland to upset Baltimore at home and the Bengals to take out the Steelers as well. Finally, lets go with New Orleans as the sentimental pick to win the return to New Orleans Monday night.

Scott: Jacksonville is a plucky bunch off to an impressive start, and everybody wants to go steady with them all of a sudden, which means Indy will win, and steal at least a few of their dates in the process. I’m all about the Buffalo Bills. I’m serious - they finish ahead of the Miami this season. I’m going with it - they’re clearly better anyway. I hope to God the Titans can stick a shiv in those frauds this week, but you know, I can’t pick ‘em, so it’s Miami for me. After all, we are keeping track here, and I’m only four games ahead of Doyle. You know who else I hate? Baltimore. Screw them. One year they’re 10-6, the next year they’re 6-10, the next year they’re 9-7, the year after they’re 7-9. I don’t care if they’re due again, they’re nothing, from their mirror-loving head coach on down. Even if they get to the playoffs by some miracle, they’re one and done, son. Give me the Browns, just out of spite. I’ll take the Steelers at home against the Bengals, because you know what? I’m actually starting to like the Steelers. I can’t explain it. Shoot me. Step outside the AFC? Why would we do that? Since I have to pick, I’ll go strong with the Saints, finally arriving home. This also allows me to pick against Michael Vick, who I dislike so much he ought to be playing for Miami or Baltimore.

Bruce: These are much tougher games to pick than last week. I’m sticking with Indy at home, the Jaguars defense is tough (I have them in my fantasy league) but this is the regular season, and it’s Peyton’s time. If this were a playoff game I’d pick differently. I’m going to go with Buffalo finally getting a home game, and Miami will dispatch the Titans. Baltimore is going to send Romeo Crennel’s squad to 0-3 and I agree that the Bengals will take out the Steelers. I’m also going to take New Orleans.

What about the big Patriots-Denver game? Can the Patriots handle this team they traditionally struggle with? What will happen? All three of us got their game right last week and are 2-0 calling for the Patriots to win.

Greg: This is a tough game, but I’ll call for the Patriots to pull it out. Denver should get a little bit more untracked offensively, but the Pats defense is good. The ground game should help control the clock some. Lets go with Patriots to win 23-17.

Scott: The Broncos can’t score, apparently, but what is equally as apparent is that no one can score on them. One good thing is that the Broncos are towards the back of the pack in run defense so far (allowing averages of 31 attempts and 135 yards a game; the Patriots are almost half that), so, you know…..giddyup. I am going to be seriously pissed if Jake Plummer picks this week to get untracked. I’m going with the Pats (shocker), 13-9.

Bruce: I hate the Broncos. I don’t know if that has been mentioned on these pages at all. I hate them because they beat the Patriots. It’s what they do. Some of the most heartbreaking and ugliest losses in Patriots history have come at the hands of this franchise. Mike Shanahan seems to be able to match moves on the chessboard with Bill Belichick, and strange, never-seen-before things tend to happen when these clubs get together. Usually these things cause the Patriots to lose. (The intentional safety in Denver being the notable exception.) I’m going with the Patriots 27-10.

So who is the mediot of the week this week?

Greg: Lets go collective and go with all the media, local and national, who were fawning over Miami as the flavor of the off-season for months. They ignored that Daunte Culpepper was horrible last year before he got hurt in his first experience without Randy Moss. They ignored the loss of Ricky Williams. They ignore the weak offensive line. They ignored the defensive backfield changes. Miami probably will still get their act together and make something of a run. But they’re clearly not there yet at this very moment. And any thought they’d just open the season on a run because they were on one to end last year against bad and/or disinterested opponents was silly.

Bruce: Well, my first instinct was to go with Steve DeOssie. His sneering was at an all time high this past weekend and it was incredibly annoying. He was condescending, arrogant and patronizing in talking about who Tom Brady is going to throw to now. He did it on the radio and on television, and really bugged the hell out me. However, a couple of out-of-town columnists made a late charge this week. Jason Whitlock on ESPN Page2 named the Patriots as his most-fraudulent 2-0 club and predicted big losses to Denver and the Bengals the next two games. The Patriots could well lose these games, but according to Whitlock, it will be because of Bill Belichick’s arrogance. Then on Thursday Dave Krieger in the Rocky Mountain News ripped Belichick limb-to-limb, and the only explanation seems to be that Belichick actually makes lazy writers like Krieger work to do their jobs and doesn’t fill up their notebooks with great quotes that they can use to make up half their story.

Scott: How about every two-bit, second-rate sportswriter taking the occasion of the Belichick/Mangini matchup to write days worth of out and out fiction about Belichick? Remember when President Bush took over and the first big story was that Clinton staffers had trashed the West Wing and written profanties on the walls, probably with their own feces? Turned out none of it ever happened, which didn’t stop people from writing about it as if it did. I’m pretty sure the jackholes that wrote those stories were assigned to the Jets-Pats game last weekend. God, I hate them all. I cannot imagine a more corrupt, bottom feeding profession. Crack whores have more integrity. If a sportswriter was on fire, I wouldn’t put him out. I’d just wonder why there couldn’t be TEN sportswriters on fire.

Itty Bitty Running Back by Committee

By Bill Barnwell, Football Outsiders - special to BSMW Patriots Game Day

Week 3 brings the Patriot-vanquishing Denver Broncos to Massachusetts on Sunday night. While I’d love to provide some numbers correlating playoff performance to ref-pocketing for the BSMW readers, one playoff game is exactly that: one game. Had the Patriots played more like… the Patriots in that game, they easily could have won it. But I’m sure you already knew that.

What the Broncos mean to me is something entirely different: fantasy football agony. Anyone who plays knows what I’m talking about — the Broncos have essentially made running backs entirely fungible as part of their offense, mixing and matching everyone from Clinton Portis to Ron Dayne into their schemes over the last few years. This is often referred to in the media as a running back by committee, which is a misnomer in much the same sense that the Red Sox didn’t operate (or intend to operate, I would imagine) a “closer by committee” in 2003. The Broncos don’t use a multitude of backs each year for a significant number of carries each; they do, however, not worry about replacing a previously successful back with another one, placing their trust in their scouting abilities and that the pieces surrounding the running back — his offensive line and the quarterback — will remain solid enough to make his life that much easier.

While the Broncos don’t actually run a committee at tailback very often, the concept intrigues me, and I don’t think I’m the only one. Almost every time a running back committee rolls around, they usually get a nickname (most recently “Thunder and Lightning” for either Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne or Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett; most recent running back combinations seem to be based on “Of Mice and Men”, with the heavier back often ending up like Lenny) and media attention. What I wanted to determine was relatively simple: do teams that use multiple running backs perform better than teams that don’t?

To do this, I employed an old methodology from the Bill James’ Abstract days. Using the criteria I’ll list in a second, I located 41 teams that used what I considered to be a running back committee. For each of those 41 teams, I gave them a buddy. Those “buddy” teams had the most similar rushing statistics to the team employing the running back by committee in the year, but did not operate the running back by committee themselves. For example:

RBmatch.jpg

As you can see, these teams have eerily similar numbers — they’re the closest match between two teams I was able to find. The 49ers employed Roger Craig and Wendell Tyler at halfback that year, each of whom carried the ball 176 times; St. Louis, meanwhile, had Ottis Anderson. Ottis had 296 carries, while no one else on the Rams had more than 75. As you can see, both teams did reasonably well for themselves.

To determine which teams used a running back by committee, I found those 41 teams from 1978 (the advent of the 16 game season) through 2005 that fit these rules:

So then, the Dunn and Duckett committee doesn’t make it (since Duckett never had the required percentage of carries to qualify, outside of the one year Dunn was injured and missed several games), but the Kevin Faulk and Antowain Smith pairing from 2003 does.

The results were a little surprising.

results.jpg

Whew, that’s a big ol’ chart. I highlighted that 1986 Patriots’ season solely in amazement as to how awful it was — it’s unfathomable to me that a team couldn’t even average three yards (and the requisite cloud of dust) a carry over an entire season, let alone a team that won eleven games! It wasn’t just one back who held the team down, either; Craig James averaged 2.8 yards per carry, Tony Collins 2.6, Mosi Tatupu 2.4… it was a mess. Really, Stanley Morgan was the 2005 Steve Smith of that team. Eleven games!

The research found that teams who employ a running back committee perform very slightly, but not significantly, better than those teams who get the bulk of their yards from one back. What this means to me, then, is that as long as you can get your rushing yards from somewhere, it doesn’t really matter whether it’s from one running back or two; that’s a very useful data point when determining whether to trade for or sign a star running back (I’m looking in your direction, Arizona).

The next question, then, is whether the running back by committee approach is more cost-effective than going single-back. The USA Today Salary Database has information ranging back to 2000, which means we can look at the compensation paid by the final six teams in the study. I included all the running backs for each team, so we can determine what the overall spending on the position is to achieve the (similar) rushing results.

pricetag.jpg

That really surprised me. Of course, there are a million and one accounting tricks when it comes to NFL teams and the salary cap, but when you judge the players’ compensation based on the total salary they earned in that season (as opposed to their cap hit), the committee was more expensive every year except for one — when the Pats out produced Eddie George & company for over $1.3 million less. While a larger sample might show different results, this is a small data point in favor of foregoing the committee route in order to commit to one back and paying his backups significantly less than, say, the second and third backs in a committee might make.

Unfortunately, this study doesn’t provide any quick and dirty conclusions as to what the better model for building a staff of running backs is. What it does show, though, is that the difference between the two, when it comes to winning, is minute and dependent upon the other factors that make up a team.

Second Look: Patriots at New York Jets

by Greg Doyle
greg@bostonsportsmedia.com

Sunday’s visit to the New York Jets by the Patriots certainly started out for two and a half quarters as the dominating performance fans who have been watching this team grew familiar wih during the Super Bowl seasons. But momentum is a funny thing. A few plays turned the tide and almost got the Jets tied up in the game. Still, you have to credit the Patriots for putting the game away with an impressive, clock killing drive and the one thing that has become apparent about this Patriots squad thru the exhibition season and now into the regular season is they have the ability to put together long, clock killing, methodical drives at times. More so than at any time during the Belichick-era, at least by the early returns. If this offense starts to gell, that could be an ability that separates them from the pack at some point. On to the tape.

QUARTERBACKS: Tom Brady did not have the horrible performance that has been portrayed by some in the media. Really, only two glaring mistakes were evident. The long throw to Doug Gabriel that was picked off was an uncharacteristic forced toss. And the strip sack that resulted in a Jets possession in good field position was Brady’s fault. There were two blitzers coming from the back side, Kevin Faulk could only pick up one and did so, Brady has to account for the other guy and he seemingly didn’t recognize it coming at all. Still, he made some really good throws. The rifle shot on third and long to Ben Watson on the first touchdown drive was a key throw. His methodical completions to ice the game, practically, on their last drive was vintage Tom Brady. He’s working with some new receivers here, its still not finely tuned. But it should get better every week and I see nothing to indicate Tom Brady won’t be Tom Brady very shortly.

RUNNING BACK: Another good performance by all the backs. Corey Dillon actually looked quicker to me this week than last and has now put together two excellent weeks with his highly motivated, punishing running style. One concern to watch is an apparent injury he suffered on his last carry. He walked off okay, but after such a promising start it would be a shame to see him suffer a set back. Laurence Maroney wasn’t quite as good this week, but still very impressive. His quickness really is something to marvel at and you have to think its only a matter of time before he breaks off a 50-plus yard TD run some week. Kevin Faulk made some critical catches down the stretch. And Heath Evans, while he wasn’t in there much, could be seen throwing some nice blocks on several plays when he was in there.

WIDE RECEIVER: A good day for the most part. Troy Brown has played well and is picking up as a more focal point of the offense to the point he reminds one of his best days as a top NFL receiver again. Chad Jackson had a touchdown in his first NFL game and displayed excellent size and quickness, as well as the ability to play physically. He did drop a long pass, but his hands are good and he’ll haul that in most of the time. Reche Caldwell had a couple nice, short catches for first downs and, although not spectacular, has now done a solid job two weeks in a row, though he hasn’t been featured much. Doug Gabriel didn’t show much in his Patriots debut and did look a bit lost out there still.

TIGHT END: A good day for this trio of Ben Watson, Daniel Graham and David Thomas. All had big catches down the field and with the exception of Thomas on one play, all did a good job blocking. This is one of the better tight end units in the league.

OFFENSIVE LINE: An improved performance from the Buffalo game. Ryan O’Callaghan was far better this week than last and had a few dominating blocks which cleared the way for good ground gains. He was also very good in pass protection. Logan Mankins also had a very good game and plays with a mean streak. The rest were solid.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Ty Warren and Jarvis Green had tremendous games. Both made quite an impact and Green seemingly caused disruption on most series he was in there for. Warren was a force all game long and he is, by far, off to his best start as a Patriot. Richard Seymour proved too much to handle in the middle as well, to the point the Jets had to pull their starter at guard and try someone new. No Jets lineman proved much of a match for him. Vince Wilfork also was good and didn’t allow much to happen in the run game, though he did have a stupid double penalty that helped the Jets get untracked. Mike Wright didn’t do much in his first NFL start.

LINEBACKER: A good day for the most part. Rosevelt Colvin was far quieter this week, but Junior Seau picked up the slack and had a fine day filling gaps in the running game. His big stop on third down before the Jets got stopped on a fourth down play was critical and a beautiful play. It helped give the Patriots their final touchdown on their subsequent possession, a score which ended up proving big. Mike Vrabel had a decent day and a sack and Tedy Bruschi was up and down in his first action of the season. He showed enough, however, to make one think he’ll be up to speed quickly. Tully Banta-Cain also did a decent job. The defense on the whole was very good, save for a couple bad plays in the secondary.

SECONDARY: Through two and a half quarters, this unit was very good. Michael Felger pointed out Eugene Wilson as someone who got schooled “all day” by Laverneus Coles. I only saw two plays where Wilson was even in coverage on Coles and could be considered bad plays by him. Other than that, he had a very good day. Ellis Hobbs was not as good this week as last week and got embarassingly run over by Coles, who is deceptively strong and physical, on the Jets last touchdown. Asante Samuel almost jumped a route for a touchdown early in the game and was in general pretty good. Rodney Harrison improved as well and was in on many more plays than the previous week productively, but still is not back to his old form. Chad Scott did a decent job and the flukeish touchdown the Jets receiver Jericho Cotchery got after a very good hit by Scott really can’t be blamed on him. It was just a very good, athletic play by the receiver. Overall, this unit defintely had its scary moments, reminiscent slightly of last year, but the number of plays were fairly limited and not yet an area of concern.

KICKING GAME: Josh Miller was fine again and Willie Andrews showed some good stuff in kick coverage. Stephen Gostkowski seemed to rush his final field goal attempt after a somewhat bad snap. This cost the Patriots a chance to ice the game and was the first display of nerves by Gostkowski I have seen since he joined the team. The result was a low trajectory and a block. Adam Vinatieri was once almost cut early in his rookie season after missing several field goals, but rebounded with a big game in what was likely his make or break game in 1996. This was just one bad kick, the first one Gostkowski has made since July under game conditions. No reason to worry yet, every kicker gets an allotment of those on occasion.

Next week, a big rematch against Denver. The Patriots will be looking to get to 3-0 in the AFC. The media will focus on the bid to avenge last year’s playoff lost the Patriots suffered in Denver, but really its just about getting a leg up on what is likely to be a competitor for playoff seeding come January. I’m sure Belichick will be telling everyone last year is last year and doesn’t matter and will, thus, be accused of stonewalling for not buying into manufactured storylines. But he’s right, last year doesn’t matter. What matters is trying to knock off a team and get two games up on a team that could pose a threat down the line if you don’t get them while you have the chance now at home. It should be a great game.

Game Day Blog - Inconsistent, immature Patriots hold off comebacking Jets, 24-17

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

For the second straight week the Patriots matched a good half of football with a hideously bad one, blowing a 24 point 3rd quarter lead before hanging on at the last second to defeat the New York Jets 24-17.

This is the youngest Patriots team of the Bill Belichick era, and it may be showing. Once again, New England’s apparent immaturity and inconsistency nearly cost the team a devastating divisional loss.

The veterans have hardly been better. Senior members of the defensive backfield allowed two long scores due to a plethora of badly missed tackles, and quarterback Tom Brady went stone cold to the point that he barely cracked a 50% completion percentage. He tried to force an unnecessary long pass downfield to a double-covered Doug Gabriel, and the subsequent interception (by David Barrett) set up a Jets touchdown that suddenly cut the lead to 10 points.

There will be no end of storyliners that will this week blame Brady’s problems on Deion Branch, David Givens, and the allegedly spendthrift New ngland braintrust. One word: bullshit.

Blaming lack of timing or coordination doesn’t account for the open receivers that have been badly missed, especially today. Spare me the crap about a fuming and defenseless Brady forced to make chicken salad from chicken feathers. Make the plays. Only a spin doctor will insist they’re not there.

The second half began promisingly for the Patriots, when the defense stopped two consecutive short yardage runs at midfield (first by Junior Seau, then by Jarvis Green and Ty Warren) to take over on downs from the desperate Jets. A handful of plays later, Laurence Maroney scored his first NFL touchdown on a one-yard plunge, and the 24-0 rout was on.

Not so fast. The Jets had their first score within four plays, thanks to a horrific display of bad tackling by the Patriots. On a 3rd and 13 from his own 29, Pennington hit Jerricho Cotchery on a medium throw to the right sideline. Neither Eugene Wilson nor Chad Scott could tie up Cotchery despite being right on top of him, and he broke away for a 71 yard score that will be portrayed as a heroic effort.

It was a gift.

As was the sequence that followed. Though the Patriots had successfully run the ball all afternoon, they ignored their own 17 point lead and clock killing capabilities to needlessly force the long throw to Gabriel, which handed the ball right back to the Jets.

The gift giving frenzy continued in the next few plays, when Pennington beat a Pats blitz and hit Laveraneus Coles for an underneath route that turned into another Keystone Kops tackling clinic by the New England secondary and linebackers. Wilson, who may have had his worst game as a Patriot today, was the main culprit again, though he had plenty of company. It was suddenly a 24-14 game, and the Patriots looked entirely capable of losing a game they had led comfortably only a few minutes before.

Thanks primarily to these missed tackles, both Coles and Cotchery finished with game with over 100 yards receiving, and Pennington totaled more than 300 yards passing.

Yet there were still more presents waiting underneath the Jets’ tree. On the next New England possession, Brady fumbled after being blasted by an unblocked blitzer for the second consecutive week (I’m sure that wouldn’t have happened if the Pats had only signed Branch, right?), and the Jets had the ball again in Patriots territory. Pennington led them inside the Pats 20, but a Mike Vrabel sack on 3rd and 8 forced a Mike Nugent chip shot that left the Patriots with a 7 point lead.

With the margin down to one score, Brady and Patriots offense took over at their own 30 with 9:20 on the clock, and pulled out an eight-minute drive that appeared to clinch the victory.

But Stephen Gostkowski’s chip shot 29 yard field goal, which would have made it a two-score game with under a minute left, was blocked by Jonathan Vilma on a total breakdown of New England’s special teams, including the rookie kicker, who left it low. Which will no doubt kick off even more bullshit wailing this week. Here’s a news flash for you - even Adam Vinatieri had a few blocked, especially when his line let defenders stream in on simple little chip shots.

Not surprisingly, the Patriots had given Chad Pennington another chance, though admittedly some 90 yards from paydirt.

It was too much to ask, even for New York, who had owned the Patriots through and through for the previous 25 minutes.

Once again the Patriots get the desired result in a most undesirable way. We’ll hear alot about departed receivers and kickers this week, and plenty of talk radio (and print) hysteria.

I wonder if anyone will point out that, most of all, the Patriots need to simply grow up, and stop trying to win games with only 30 minutes of poise and concentration.

Game Day Blog - Pats Handling Jets at Half, 17-0; Rookie Jackson With Impressive Debut

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

After a sometimes-shaky effort debut last week, the Patriots came out today clicking on virtually all cylinders, taking a 17-0 halftime lead over the Jets at the Meadowlands.

Tom Brady and the Patriots ball-control offense have been sensational, twice driving for more than 80 yards and using nearly ten minutes of clock time, and adding an opportune late first-half touchdown.

Their only misstep has been settling for a field goal on their second drive, depite having first and goal from the Jets seven.

The much-maligned passing game has been solid, and at times spectacular. Brady is 9 for 17 for 125 yards, completing passes to six different receivers, many who were open by a substantial margin.

On the first ball thrown to him as a pro, rookie Chad Jackson reached behind a defender while in mid-air to make a spectacular snare of a 29 yard throw from Brady. The play that helped set up the Pats first score, a 1 yard Corey Dillon punge.

Later, after a terrible Jets punt handed the ball to the Pats at the 50 with a minute left on the clock, Jackson scored his first NFL touchdown with a neat 13 yard grab of a Brady throw along the back line of the end zone.

David Thomas also had his first catch as a pro, working underneath Jet coverage for a wide open pitch and catch that also went for 29 yards. Proving all things come in threes, Dan Graham also grabbed a pretty 29 yard lob from Brady; both plays keyed a 12 play, 87 yard drive for a Stephen Gostkowski….wait for it…… three.

Doug Gabriel has had a few chances - including a close one in the end zone - but has yet to connect with the Patriots quarterback.

The Patriots suddenly fearsome ground game is barreling along with more 80 first half yards. Both Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney have 14 yard runs.

Chad Pennington and the Jets offense hae strung together a few first downs here and there, but have not seriously threatened the Patriots, thanks to New England’s surprise 4-3 alingment (Jarvis Green in for a middle linebacker) that has shut down the running game (about 30 yards) and put consistent pressure on Pennington. The Jets deepest penetration has been to the New England 46. With the return of Tedy Bruschi (who has split time in the middle with Seau), Mike Vrabel has returned to the outside.

Richard Seymour has simply been a dominating beast through the first half.

There’s always room for improvement (two 2nd quater possessions never took flight) but it woiuld have been hard to ask for a better first half by the Patriots. It’s doubly impressive that this performance has come on the road.

Game Day Blog - Quick Question

by Scott Benson
scottb@bostonsportsmedia.com

Not making any excuses for the Patriots last week or anything, but have we underestimated the Buffalo Bills a tad?

On defense anyway. They’ve held the Dolphins to 130 yards over 40 minutes in Miami’s home owner, they’ve sacked Daunte Culpepper five times and intercepted him once, and they lead 13-0 with a little more than a quarter left. As I write this, they’re blocking a punt deep in Miami territory.

Mike Reiss says Tedy Bruschi, Chad Jackson and Doug Gabriel have all been spotted on the field trying warm ups. No further word yet, though we’re just an hour before kickoff.

Game Day Blog - A Break in the Injury Clouds?

by Scott Benson
scott@bostonsportsmedia.com

Some happy news, at least early in the day. Mike Reiss reports that Tedy Bruschi, Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson all made the trip to New York.

I’m sure there will be a game-time decision made on each, and they may yet remain on the shelf for another week. But for the moment, it’s nice to think that the Patriots will get at least one key player back today.

It sure seems like they’re taking it slow with Tedy, and when you think about it, how devastating would a re-injury be for the Patriots? Maybe they give him another week of practicing with that cast.

For all practical purposes, it’s as though Chad Jackson has been an apparition; I’m not convinced he truly exists. Seeing him today would be like seeing a ghost.

So my money goes on Gabriel. Hey Doug, Karen Guregian says you need at least six catches today, or you’ll answer to Red Sox Nation. Better get cracking.

Lastly, a word about Reiss. His simple, direct reporting offers a needed respite from the clamor of contrived commentary. I don’t have to listen to hours of broadcast blather to find out whether flu victim Rodney Harrison feels well enough to play today. I don’t have to sort through the predictable, pungent Bad Bill noise that ran in his old paper this morning. One click, question answered. Long live the Indispensable Mike Reiss.

Have you checked out Tom Curran’s new blog yet? Tom has been covering the Pats this week for nbcsports.com, and is already blogging this morning.

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